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Joe Biden may head to Israel this week. Welcome to the fastest show in politics, as the President today cancels a trip to Colorado ahead of an expected ground invasion in Gaza. We're joined by retired Air Force General David Deptula, who helped to write the book on drone strategy, spent thousands of hours flying over Afghanistan, and will be with us here in just a moment on the next steps for Israel. The US House still has no speaker. They're going to try to change that. In the next couple
of days. We'll talk about Jim Jordan's full court press with our signature panel Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano. They're with us for the hour. Welcome to the Monday edition of Bloomberg Sound On. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington, where We've got a lot to learn this week, not only of course, who will be the next speaker. We'll see if we learn that this week. But of course,
what's going to happen next in Israel? With the headline now in the terminal, Biden ways trip yes to Israel, considering a trip as part of a global push to prevent the war from spreading in the Middle East. He appeared on sixty minutes last evening, not knowing at least we didn't know that they would cancel a trip. The President had planned today to visit Pueblo, Colorado, staying here to manage issues at home, and could be on the jet within days from what we're reading in reports here
on the terminal. President spoke, as I mentioned on sixty minutes last evening with Scott Pelley about the war in Israel. Do you believe that Hamas must be eliminated entirely?
Yes, I do, But there needs to be a Palestinian authority. There needs to be a path to a Palestinian state.
A path to a Palestinian state. As we bring in the voice of Jordan fae be In Bloomberg White House reporter who's with us at the table to get things started today. Jordan, it's great to see you. You've been reporting on this obviously since the terror attack happened, and now we're hearing reports that the president may actually get
on Air Force one to go to Israel. You know, we talked about this, whether it was Florida, whether it was Hawaii, about how a presidential visit can be very disruptive, and I suspect that this would be a very difficult trip to plan. Do we think it'll happen.
Yeah, it seems to be. There seems to be planning going on for him to go. They haven't announced whether that's official guest, but then pulling down that Colorado trip
today would indicate there's some serious planning going on. And yeah, there's a lot of imperatives for Joe Biden to go, but it will be taxing, you know, both on the US sides getting a trip of that magnitude together on such a short timeline, and also the Israeli security services, who obviously have a lot on their plate, you're, given
the nature of the conflict there. You know, in these visits, you know, the president isn't usually on the ground for a long time, but there's still a lot of security that goes into it to make sure the president.
Says, I can't imagine the advanced planning here, and I suspect that it would be a relatively brief trip. What's the purpose though, I mean, obviously we know for a fact that Joe Biden's been in touch on a daily basis with Benjaminett Yaho, the Secretary has been in touch with Defense, their defense minister. Why does being in person matter?
Well, first of all, Israeli Prime Minister Benjaminette Yahoo invited President Bien to visit Israel, and sot Yahoo obviously has his purposes. He wants the sort of steal of approval from the US President for whatever he's going to do with this campaign against Hamas and Gasa. But for the US president, there's a couple of considerations to play here. One is a diplomatic mission to make sure that whatever offensive Israel decides to launch that they kind of stay
within downs, that they're limiting civilian casualties. And also to send a signal to you know, Hamas hasbala Iran to not get involved. Him showing up there would be a powerful symbol of that. But there's also domestic politics at play. This is an opportunity for President Biden to get out there, you show some leadership on the world stage as he ramps up his reelection bit.
Well, that makes sense. They made an ad out of his trip to Ukraine, made him look like Tom Cruise a mission impossibly have the aviators on the whole bit. I suspect there's some campaigning inherently as part of this, but to put your name on what's about to happen is also part of this. Jordan listened to the President from last evening on sixty minutes when he was asked about protecting civilians and some of the carneage that could follow an invasion, a ground invasion of Gaza.
I'm confident that Israel is going to act under the major the rules of war. There's a standards that democratic institutions and countries will go go by, and so I'm confident that there's going to be an ability for the innocence in Gaza to be able to have access to medicine, food and water.
He talked about Israel's right to defend itself, but this is something he's going to have to deal with. The optics are not going to be great, obviously. Any ground invasion in Gaza is going to be extremely difficult, will come with heavy casualties, and he will have been there potentially moments earlier.
Yeah, listen, if he goes and then Israel the day after, you know, launches a ground invasion and inflicts a large number of civilian casualties, that will be a problem for Joe Biden. But part of the reason he's going is again to maybe discourage them from doing that, or at least put some guardrails on. Like he said, you know, let's follow the rules of war. Let's make sure to
limit civilian casualties. Let's target you know, hamas military political structure, but let's you know, leave the innocent people who are not a part of this to let go. And you know, again, Israel is relying on US equipment here, and so there's the implied tension there that, hey, if this goes off the rails, you know, yeah, maybe down the road you're not getting as much ammunition as you asked for.
Well, I think that's pretty smart, you know, you consider the message that could be delivered, a message over strength in person that could play well for the president politically if it came to bear. But we'll have to find out, of course. Jordan Fabian, great reporting and thank you as always, Bloomberg White House reporter. I'm sure as soon as Jordan knows about any potential trip to Israel, you'll see a headline on the terminal within seconds here as we bring
in the voice of the General. I've been looking forward to this as long as I have known that Lieutenant David Deptula would be with US US Air Force retired, a man who is instrumental not only in the ground war over Afghanistan, but in positioning the Air Force to make use of drones to the extent that we're seeing now in Israel and also in Ukraine. General Deptula, welcome
back to Bloomberg. It's great to see you, sir. This is going to be a very difficult mission for Israel, which is why we've seen repeated air strikes in Gaza. In fact, the terminal now reporting here at Bloomberg that there are as many as twelve hundred people Palestinians under rubble right now in Gaza. How much more of this will we see before ground troops roll in?
Well, Joe, A couple of points right up front, And I hate to get too complex too quick, but war's a complex endeavor. And when speaking about war in this particular conflict, one's got to define the objectives that are being pursued at three different levels. That's strategic, operational, and tactical. And tactics are what generally garnered the most attention, but in reality you can only put tactics in context if
you understand the higher order military objectives. So you know, we can start with the fact that Israel's stated strategic objective is to eliminate Hamas's military capability. And what I would tell you is that at the strategic level involves kind of five major elements as they relate to Hamas. First is the leadership. Then there are essential systems and processes. There's the Hamas infrastructure, they're personnel, and then their weapons systems.
So each one of those elements or centers of gravity, if you will, will be decomposed into operational level target sets, and that's what the Israelis are in the process of doing, if they haven't already done or have planned for many years. And so there are a variety of examples of that committed control facilities, communications, under essential systems and processes, there's electricity, money, food, and so on and so forth. So then these are
broken down into specific targets. And here's where now we get into the tactical level detail. And because of the extensive use of tunnel to hide and conduct operations and their entrances and exits being inside buildings, ground operations are near certainty that is going to draw Israel into the ground on the ground to be able to find, locate and destroy these facilities. So you know, that's a broad brush overview of what the Israeli military is facing right now.
Understood to what extent then can Israel continue to seek advantage from the air. Obviously Hamas does not have an air force, and it's not just fighter jets. I look to you as someone who brought forth the largest increase in drone operations in air force history. The job that we'll see over the next couple of days will be very important. I think if I'm understanding you correctly to what happens and what shape of ground invasion takes.
Right, and you raised an extraordinarily important point. And at this point in time, remotely pottered aircraft, unmannerial vehicles, drones, whatever you want to call them, have become an integral part of any operation.
At the operational level.
The Israeli defense forces are truly taking an integrated approach of AirLand, sea, information and cyber elements of which drones will provide. And let me put it this way, they'll play an extraordinarily important role. I mean, one of their values is that they can provide twenty four to seven observation of what's going on, in addition to carrying weapons to be able to rapidly respond to any aggressive use of force or movement by Hamasa's.
Forces.
So they are completely integral to the operations. And you heard earlier of some of the concerns with respect to weather. Well, quite frankly, that's because they want to have the ability to use drones to watch what's going on, observe movements, help in targeting as well as the application of forced themselves.
You're a director of the Combined Air Operations Center for Operation Enduring Freedom over Afghanistan, and our listeners should know you were also a principal attack planner for Operation Desert Storms air campaign. And with someone who has over four hundred air combat hours, what can you tell us about the challenges that Israel is facing now fighting an army if you will, with no uniforms. It's of course not an organized army interspersed with civilians in this densely populated area.
You've actually experienced conditions like this general.
Yeah, the desert storm a conflict again to Rock was much more expansive. In other words, we're dealing with the breath and depth of an entire country, and as was the intensity. We're flying three thousand sorties a day over twelve hundred and fifty actual attack sorties a day, which
is a lot of application of force. But one of the challenges that the Israelis are facing is because this is such a dense urban environment, and that's one of the reasons that they need to conduct an integrated campaign, capitalizing on what the air element brings to inform the ground forces and naval forces to achieve the objectives that
I outlined. The other point I'd like to bring up here of Joe that I don't see very much attention paid to, and that's that it's very important to understand that Hamas's use of civilians is human shields, and misuse of protected sites like mosques and hospitals are war crimes in and of themselves.
Now.
At the same time, it's important to note that even if Hamas uses human.
Shields, which they are.
Israel Is still bound by the principles of proportionality and have to take all feasible precautions to minimize harm to civilians, and they have a very strong history of doing that. But it doesn't mean that they cannot strike targets because of the presence of human shields. According to the Geneva Conventions, attack is allowed if the potential damage to civilians is not excessive in relation to the direct military advantage that's anticipated.
So I don't want to get too into legal ease, but the presence of human shields do not prevent an attack, even if the conducting that attack might have considerable media impact.
Well, that's awfully important for our listeners and our viewers to know. General, you flew the F fifteen. As I mentioned, you have hundreds of combat hours. That's a jet that the Israelis fly, among others made here in the US. We only have a minute left, General, I just wonder if it's your view that this mission can be accomplished without completely leveling Gaza.
Yeah, I think you know. It's an extraordinarily challenging endeavor that the Israelis are embarking upon, but it's one that one needs to understand. Israel has fought limited wars with Hamas in the past, and those simply have not succeeded. So now they're faced with either overthrowing Hamas or rendering it completely ineffective, and that is going to be very,
very challenging. But the Israeli defense forces or extraord nearly competent, and they'll do everything they can to protect civilian protect civilians. But at the same time, I think they're putting together an integrated operation that will be very effective in eliminating Hamas. And that's what they simply need to do, because Hamas's actions have shown that they are pure evil and must be eliminated.
Well, there you have it from someone with first hand experience, Retired General David Deptula, It's great to see you, sir, now the dean of the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies and again former Air Force Deputy Chief for Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance along with former fighter pilot.
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Joe Biden could be on Air Force one on a trip to Israel in just a matter of days. That's the reporting now. As the National Security Council at the White House says they have no trip to announce, our reporting says that could take place in the next couple of days. I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington. We thank you for joining us on Bloomberg Sound On as we assemble our panel. Rick Davis and Jeanie shanzena with us on the Monday edition. Here as Anthony Blincoln turns up in
Israel again an unscheduled return. He spoke earlier this.
Morning, a.
Deep commitment to Israel's right, indeed its obligation to defend itself and to defend its people.
And in that you have, you've always had the support of the United States.
This again, following the interview last evening Joe Biden on sixty minutes making the case for America in defense and support of Israel, though he also made news by talking about a potential occupation he was asked about this by Scott Pelly and Israeli occupation of Gaza.
I think it'd be a big mistake. Look what happened in Gaza. In my view, is Hamas and the extreme elements of Moss don't represent all the Palestinian people, and I think that it would be a mistake to for Israel to occupy Gaz again.
Rick and Jeanie join us now with great uncertainty in Washington on this Monday. Rick, it's good to have you back. I'm curious your thoughts here, having heard just now from General depth Tula and knowing that the President could be in country in Israel within just a couple of days, is that the right move for him to make now?
Yeah, I'm afraid the President doesn't have a lot of great choices. And that's one of the reasons I think you see Secretary Blinken playing shuttle diplomacy running back and forth, is because time is really the one thing that is the most i would say hardest resource to grab. There's no question that the Israelis are going to go into Gaza, and what format comes in, as General Deptula talked about, is just a way for them to accomplish their goal
short term and mid term, maybe not long term. And so that's going to happen, and the President may be there, he may not be there at the time it does, but it's utter disregard for the president's schedule. They're going to do that on a military clock that gives them the best advantage they can to limit casualties, both on the side of the Israeli military and also on the side of civilians in Gaza. So that's a clock that's
just you know, totally separate than the presidents. And then you also have Iran and Egypt, two really important players, one negative, one positive that the President is talking to as much as Israel, and he's giving a warning to the Iranians by going there that if they want to broaden this conflict, they're going to have to deal with the United States and trying to give some kind of a bridge to the Egyptians, who play an incredibly important role in getting aid into Gaza to offset some of
the humanitarian problems. So this is a really high priority, and it's only the President of United States who can actually effectuate change that's positive in this regard.
Well, that's pretty remarkable. The optics would be amazing Genie. Depending on where you stand on this whole issue, though, could also be challenging for Joe Biden going into a re election cycle. His message do not occupy Gaza was heard loudly last evening on sixty Minutes. Why does he have to show up in person?
You know, he doesn't have to, but I think he is going to try, provided that they can maintain his security, and is of course the timing of when they go in with boots on the ground and Tadaza. You know, it is a difficult security challenge number one, But I do think if he's able to securely go over there, he will and should. That said, I was struck by his tone on sixty Minutes last night. The President has
given full throated support to Israel. He maintains that, and by the same token, we heard him walking this very very fine line last night and saying things like everybody knows that all Palestinians don't support Commis extremism, and you know, the reality is we don't know if Israel knows that. We don't know where he is getting that kind of data. There's not public opinion polling, for instance, going on, nor should there be, So he is reflecting what we are
hearing increasingly. We saw the New York Times ab ed saying Israel can defend itself and uphold its value. We saw former Obama administration officials come out, and I was struck by an ADL official just yesterday saying that he's concerned that as Israel moves forward, world opinion will turn against it. And that's a concern not only for Israel, but for Joe Biden and the United States as well.
So I think the President is very clearly making the case that while he has full throated support for Israel, he's deeply concerned about the civilians and Israel should be very careful not to get in a quagmire in the West Bank or in sorry, in Gaza like they were prior to two thousand and five. So it is very difficult argument for him to make at a very challenging time as he's facing a re election bid.
Gaza's Health Ministry Rick says at least twelve hundred Palestinians have been trapped under rubble from Ukrainian from Ukrainian forgive me, from Israeli airstrikes into Gaza. Those are the types of headlines that could challenge the president on a trip like this.
Now, no question, this is going to be a very difficult pr environment. As Genie says, the President has got this dual track where not only does he have to be commander in chief in president United States, but he's got a run for election and so this is not without its risks politically. That being said, he has some repair work to be done on commander in chief. There's no question he took a hit when the US withdrew from Afghanistan and his leadership was questioned because of the chaos.
So if this can somehow help prepare that image, it's probably a gamble worth taking. That being said, as you point out, Joe, there are a lot of casualties with civilians in Gaza, that's only an amount, and as Geni said, that could put additional pressure on the Israelis. But all of this is predicated on Israeli getting the necessary accomplishments of their tasks, their priorities in Gaza, and I thought General Deptula did a excellent job of articulating what their military objectives would be.
This is becoming an issue on the Republican campaign trail. As you might well, expect Mike Pence, we stand with Israel, making the point Ron DeSantis no moral equivalents. Nikki Haley is well speaking over the weekend here she is.
Whether it was burned bodies, whether it was women that was raped, whether it were people being dragged down the streets of Gaza. I know you saw it, but did you hear it? Did you hear what they were saying when they were dragging those bodies down the street, because they were saying death to Israel, death to America. That's what they do, that's how they think. That is why Israel needs to eliminate Hamas once and for all.
It's pretty heavy stuff here in Genie. We've gotten to the point where the president Joe Biden, sounds exactly like the Republican candidates for president. Do you agree?
I do, with one glaring exception, which is the leader, as the money in the polls show, Donald Trump. I mean, he is out posting things which make you really have to take a step back and say is he equipped to lead? I don't know a city council at this point. He's talking about support for Israel after attacking bab Net and Yahoo. In the hours after this atrocity, and after claiming his blah is smart, he's talking about supporting Israel and tying it to the stolen twenty twenty election. That
is what he's talking about. So I totally agree with you, Joe, except as it pertains to the foreign ahead leader on that side, which is still Donald Trump, and nothing crazy that he has said, and it has gotten to crazy gotten there. It's been there a while, but it is clear in the wake of this that nothing that he
says has dampered his support in the polls. And that's got to be a concern for any thinking, caring rep Republican, somebody who looks at what's happened at these atrocities and scratches their head and says, is this man really talking about the stolen election from twenty twenty.
We've only got a minute here, Rick. Are you surprised we're not hearing more criticism from all of the Republican candidates about Donald Trump as Genie's referring. Remember last week bb let us down he said Hamas is smart.
Yeah.
Look, I think these Republicans are criticizing Trump on the stump. I don't think the press is really reporting it because they have such an affection for the crazy stuff, as Genie says that Donald Trump says that's going to make news when the more sane and sober comments being made by Republican presidential candidates other than Trump really go unattended to. I think everybody endorses what Nikki Haley said and the quotes that you played.
Except for Donald Trump.
That being said, I don't think anything Donald Trump says has any bearing on the outcome of the crisis today in the Middle other than the fear that many people have in the Republican Party and in the Democratic Party that if he becomes the nominee the party I'm potentially president, all that could change overnight.
Well, I'll refer back to what Ron de Santis said last week following the comments from Donald Trump quote, it has absurd that anyone, much less simone running for president, which who was now to attack our friend in ally Israel, much less praise Hesbola terrorists as very smart.
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High noon Tuesday. That's when Jim Jordan will force a vote. The reporting coming out of CNN right now, the Republican nominee for House Speaker, the chair of the Judiciary Committee, Jim Jordan's going to force this thing high noon tomorrow, like something out of a Western even though he apparently does not have the votes, or does he or will he. Great reporting today from Steven Dennis, Laura Lidfann, Eric Wasson our Congress team on the terminal, GOP's Jordan picks up
critical support for House speakership. It's really anyone's guess where he is in the whip count right now, though, which is something we'll talk to Mick mulvaney about next hour. Let's reassemble the panel though. Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano joined Bloomberg Politics contributors as we consider what's about to happen here. Looks like he got Mike Rodgers. That's what Jody says. Rick, is Jim Jordan the next Speaker of the House.
You know, I think it's a hard flog for him. You know, he started out this process losing eighty one vote to Austin Scott, who's Austin Scott, right. I mean, you know, and he's been trying to peel it back since then, and some through cajoling and deal making, but also some through threats and a little bit of extortion from Fox News host Sean Hannity. This has been a very divisive race, and so I don't think he's there. Everything I've heard is he's still twenty thirty votes short.
Maybe that is a long way from being speaker.
Yeah, what do you make of Sean Hannity? Believe it was one of his producers sending letters to those who are on the fence you need to find out why they may not support Jim Jordan. It's a pretty interesting tactic from a Fox News host.
It absolutely is. And you know, this is the reality is that we've always said, we said it last week, the faster Jim Jordan gets this on the floor, what they want to do is try to really arm twist folks into making a public vote with the threat that their constituents will be so upset if they don't go in the direction of somebody who's supported by Donald Trump and by social conservatives and by Fox News hosts, that they will then primary them. And that is what we're
really hearing. It's obviously a stick that they can use, and you know, so we'll see if that is successful. Another big get looks to be Ann Wagner firmly opposed now. Some reporting says she is in Jim Jordan's champ now, so that is a big get for him as well. We keep appearing to Rick's point, you know, between maybe a dozen to twenty maybe more or less are still strongly opposed. But it was fifty five on Friday when they left for the weekend, so he's got a long
way to go. And you know, I think the question we all have to ask ourselves is is this a party at this point that really really wants to govern or are they more comfortable in the minority be in the opposition? Because we are on day what twelve thirteen of this thing and this still has no end in sight. They're going to go to the floor noon tomorrow. Who knows what will happen there. We're hearing his opponents, Jordan's opponents may put somebody up, but they're not even giving
a name, so who knows who that would be. It's embarrassing and it's looking to be like a caucus that does not want to govern and doesn't really enjoy being in the majority.
I'm really taken by this letter or this email from Sean Hannity's producer here, Rick, you mentioned at Axios got their hands on this Stephanie from Hannity's show Fox News. It says, sources tell Hannity Representative fill in the blank is not supporting Jim Jordan for Speaker. Can you please
let me know if this is accurate. It then goes on to say, if true, Hannity would like to know why during a war breaking up between Israel and hamas with the war in Ukraine, with wide open borders, with a budget unfinished, why would Rep. Fill in the blank be against Rep. Jim Jordan for Speaker. I'm not even halfway through this thing, and they said deadlines reply on it. I think, my gosh, I've been clearly under using Matt
Shirley and the other bookers and producers here, Rick. Is this a new tactic that we should get used to?
Yeah, Joe, you should be lobbying for the next Speaker of the House. You should pick a couple of bills you like and start warning these guys that they'll be a wrath from the Bloomberg Radio Show sound on if they don't pull their weight. Yeah, no, Look, this is like intrusion into the public domain. I think that they need to be registered as lobbyists if they're going to be a lobby in the House of Representatives. And by
the way, I think it actually backfar. Everybody I heard from this weekend who've gotten or seen that letter were very upset that he is getting himself in the middle of this race. So you know, be careful what you ask for, you may just get it. And that's I'm sure Jordan is scratching his head, going, who call Hannity? Why is he doing this?
Yeah? Wow, I don't know. By the way, our booker, Matt Shirley Genie says he's too busy, So I guess that's not going to start any time soon. But so what do you make of forcing the vote at noon tomorrow? Is that not a fool's Errand after fifteen rounds with Kevin McCarthy.
Yeah, Matt is much busier than those bookers at Fox for sure. And you know, I don't actually think it's a fool's Errand if you are Jim Jordan, this is your path to the speakership. You don't have another path. You have to get this public. You have to make people take a vote, and you have to threaten that if they don't vote for you, they're going to be primary. You know, what we are seeing is a wholesale change
in the way we do American politics. I mean, it's not that long ago that this was, you know, something where party leadership would really have the power. Now that power is being outsourced to people who can get their name in the media, social and traditional visa v people like bookers and producers on shows that their constituents watch. That's a change. And to Rick's point, maybe these folks need to now have to register as lobbyists for the US Congress. This is where we're headed.
Wow, Actually, well that might actually work for a couple producers. Here's Bill Heizenga. The Republicans spoke with us on Friday, right when they learn they're all going home for the week.
Jim Jordan has some work he's got to do. He's got to get in front of those people who are objecting about it. Personally. I had put in an amendment to our to our conference rules that would have required us to reach to seventeen before we go to the floor.
And that's the weird part here, Rick, what do you make of this going to the floor without actually knowing what's going to happen? Is that a strategy at noon tomorrow?
Well, I've got whiplash. I don't know about you, Joe, but like you know, Jim Jordan's like starts out saying, oh, no, I'm not going to run for speaker. Oh well, I'll consider it, depends on what the caucus wants. And then it's like, I'll run for speaker, but only if the caucus gives you two seventeen before we get out. And then that changed again to put me on the floor tomorrow and force everybody to vote one way or another. I mean, I'm sorry, I'm exhausted, my back hurts, my neck is twisted.
I mean Jim Jordan.
Has had more positions in the last five days, then then well I won't even say who has a lot of positions. So bottom line, this is the act of a man who doesn't have the votes. He's going to try and pressure the floor, and I think that's everybody's strategy. Let him hang out there. He's got to lose on the floor. In order to clear the way for another candidate, and I think there are plenty of members who could garner that kind of support.
Wow, not a very hopeful Rick Davis.
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Congressman Jim Jordan spent the weekend twisting arms, but he does not have the votes to be speaker yet. As lawmakers returned to Washington today with a vote on the speaker expected at high noon tomorrow, we'll get the latest from Capitol Hill and Kaylee Lines Ahead, we'll discuss with Mick Mulvaney, the co founder of the Freedom Caucus, former acting Chief of Staff, and the Trump White House back for his weekly conversation. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. Join
now by Kaylee Lions. It's good to see you. I hold the letter in my hands. Dear colleague, letter not a dear John, A dear colleague Jim Jordan's stationary. It's very lengthy. You know, I feel like this could be a pretty tight pitch considering everything that we've heard. Yeah, first to the principles that unite us as Republicans, the role of speaker bringing all Republicans together, no measure of
what we can achieve for the American people. This is the same Jim Jordan who told us that he did not want to run for speaker.
Right, Yes, that was two weeks ago, about and what a difference two weeks.
Do you imagine that was two weeks ago. Now he's essentially forcing a vote. This is kind of a big development here CNN. He's forcing a vote at high noon tomorrow, So we're going to find out pretty quick how many votes he's got.
Yeah, and it seems like he has more, at least secured than he had on Friday when more than fifty Republicans voted by secret ballot and said they would not support him for speaker. And yet he's picked up some pretty key individuals just in the last twenty four hours. Mike Rogers and Wagner can calvert all of these names seem like they may be building some momentum for him. But really it is going to come down to the math here is it enough to get the.
Gal We spoke with Bill Hayseenga on Friday. This was right after they had all learned they were going home for the weekend.
He didn't have a slight.
Yeah, he did not love. But remember this idea of having this figured out before you go to the floor, right, a cloture vote, if you will, a nominating vote that would mirror the number of votes needed to actually do this on the floor. That never happened, Haiseenga thing it should.
Jim Jordan has some work he's got to do. He's got to get in front of those people who are objecting about it personally. I had put in an amendment to our conference rules that would have required us to reach to seventeen before we go to the floor. That is sort of maybe the spirit of this in many ways that that isn't.
A formal rule.
But guess what, we're not going to have any help from the Democrats, and not that we were necessarily expecting any, but we have got to come together as the Republicans to find two hundred and seventeen votes.
Ah to seventeen. We kept hearing all last week that no one can get to seventeen. Yes, that may still be the case, by the way.
And we will find out more come tomorrow afternoon.
Joe, you think Mick mulvaney would go to the floor if he were nominated speaker without knowing he had the votes.
I don't know. Should we ask Mick?
Because I could see both sides here. I think kind of lives on the edge a little bit. I think that he could actually be the one to go for it, but I also feel like he might be smarter than that and want something to count on. Nick, why not make that adjustment, that rule change so you know that when c Span turns the lights on, this is going to look good for Republicans.
I'm trying to figure out the comment about I'm too smart to do it, so that means if I go to the floor, I'd be doing something stupid. So maybe I shouldn't say I would do that. I think the dynamic is a bunch of different.
Is it a strategy movement?
Yeah, the strategy. It is a strategy, and it's not a bad strategy. It's a real gutsy kind of strategy. Is actually what it says is, look if I'm nominated and I have no interest in the job. So I'm just using this to make a sim If you're nominated and the votes, you don't have the votes in private, but you think that some people might not have the guts to vote against.
You on the floor, then yeah, you go to the floor.
And if you got Donald Trump on your side threatening to prime those folks, maybe that pushes you to go to the floor a little bit. Look, I asked an interesting question today of a friend of mine on the Hill. I said, Look, I know that Matt Gates is crazy enough and stubborn enough and just bizarre enough to sit on the floor for fifteen votes and be the vote against Kevin McCarthy because I saw him do it in January.
Is Don Bacon the same kind of person? Does Don Bacon have that same sort of different, strange gear to where he would be willing to sit on the floor for fifteen votes and vote against Jim Jordan.
I don't think that he is.
He's a lot nicer and more reasonable, probably a lot brighter than Matt Gates, But I don't think he's got that kind of that bizarre approach to you know, burn the place down or else Don is a reasonable guy, and Jim maybe counting on those folks who are reasonable to say I won't vote be in private, but taking them, you know, sort of calling them out and seeing if they got the votes they gots to vote against him on the floor.
If there's a strategy, that's the strategy.
Okay, So that's the strategy. It's just as whether not it's one that's gonna work. Mick, do you think Jim Jordan can pull this off? Ultimately?
I would have said no three or four hours ago. Then he picked up Mike Rodgers and Ken Calvert, who's not a name that's very well widely known outside of Washington, but a very influential member of sort of the spending wing of the party. You've got these two groups, right, You've got the military folks Mike Rodgers and Ad Wagner, and you've got the folks like to spend a lot of money like Ken Calvert and to Ada Wagner and Mike and Mike Rodgers.
I didn't think he'd get him.
And when he when it was announced they were supporting him. That that changed the analysis in sort of in my internal math that if he can get those folks he might be able to get the votes. Here's the first question I asked myself, what did he have to give to Ken Calvert and Mike Rogers to get their support? And is that the type of giveaway that then turns off some of the folks on the far right, for whom Jim is not nearly conservative enough. I'm going back
to the Matt Gates anarchist the party. So I honestly, no one knows, and it's just different than it was three four hours ago. Through four hours ago said he does not have the votes, not going to get the votes. It looks like he might have made some progress here and might be moving in the direction of getting to seventeen.
You know Jim Jordan better than just about anyone, I would say, Mick, You've founded the Freedom Caucus with him. You certainly know him as a lawmaker, you know him as an individual. There's been some tough questions about his past over the past couple of days. They were all aired out on Sunday Morning television. He's accused of covering up sexual assault allegations when he was a wrestling coach.
Liz Cheney says he was the closest thing to January sixth, the conspiracy on January sixth that you could get in a lawmaker on Capitol Hill and should not be trusted with this job. How do you react to those.
A there's a couple different questions at Liz Change. No one hears what Liz Cheney says. I hate to be that blunt about it, but no one listens to her. She was a three or four term member of the House and she's out now. So if her last name wasn't Chaining, nobody would be talking about her on the
other issues. You know, I know Jim fairly well, and nothing that I ever heard the allegations related to the things that happened at that school twenty thirty years ago have anything to do in my mind, with the Jim
Jordan that I know. And I also know this is that politicians of both parties know that it's really easy to make allegations against sitting against sitting members of Congress, and we usually don't pay attention to those sorts of allegations because people make them all the time until they rise the level of criminal investigations, ethics charges, that kind of stuff.
And I don't think that ever happened with Jim. So all I know is I know him.
I remember this topic coming up, I don't know, five years ago and immediately dismissing in my own mind, and I think it would o weigh fairly quickly. So I don't I'm not concerned there's anything there. And if Jim Jordan wasn't being considered for speaker, my guess is nobody else would care about it either.
Okay, so that's on that subject. But Mike, returning to this subject of January sixth, this isn't something that only Liz Cheney talks about. You yourself have been very outspoken against your former boss, former President Donald Trump, because of the events on January sixth, And if Jim Jordan was close to that, if he was one of those denying the results of the twenty twenty election and trying to stop that process, why would you feel any differently about him?
Well, I don't feel differently about him.
When you go back to you're right about the January sixth thing, right, And if that's what Jim's leadership becomes, If Jim is down there trying to pitch people on elect me speaker, and I'm really going to dig into the twenty twenty election. My guess is that's a fool's errand and he doesn't have a chance. If he's down then on telling people, Look, I want to go forward. We have to pass the spending bill. It will be conservative. We have to pass support for Israel, it will be
very generous. I do want to continue the investigations in the Biden family. If that's the message that he's selling, I can see him getting someplace. If he's down there selling well, I think we need to revisit twenty twenty. He doesn't have a chance, so I don't show that answers your question not But I the reason I mentioned
Liz Cheney's again that she is not voting. She doesn't really know a lot of the folks within the conservative winging the party, so it's very strange that her nanks pop I started name pop up on Drudge Report, and my immediate reaction was why, But maybe the people say the same thing about me.
Well, she helped the co chair of the committee investigating January sixth, so obviously she knows a little bit about this mix. She tweeted that Jim Jordan urged that Mike Pence refused to count lawful electoral votes. If ours nominate Jordan to be Speaker, they will be abandoning the constitution, they will lose the House majority, and they will deserve to take the name off the message. Do you disagree with what she wrote?
It's hard for me to take the name off the message.
But I always get interested in people who lose elections, whether they be Republicans or Democrats, tell Republicans how to win elections. So but I struggle with that. Look, I don't think that Jim Jordan's activities. Again, let's be clear, I quit over January sixth. I am not defending January sixth, But any way, shape or form infacted the opposite are. I continued to condemn it anytime anybody wants me to. But I don't think that's what this race is about.
I really don't. I think it's the race is about the next three or four months, or age actually six or eight weeks. How do you get through a funding issue for the government between now in the middle of November. How do you deal with supporting Israel? What do you do about Ukraine? Those are the three big issues that Congress has to deal with personally, and you guys haven't asked this question, but I'll answer it anyway. I can't believe Jim wants the job because I don't know how
you pass a funding bill that isn't bipartisan. And if a bipartisan funding bill cost cost Kevin McCarthy's job, I don't know how it costs whoever the next speaker is his or her job.
So again, if.
People want to look back at January sixth, and if Liz Chaney wants to see that, that's great.
I'm trying to figure out what happens in the next forty five days.
Well, also in the next forty five days, Mick. Theoretically the impeachment inquiry, which Jim Jordan was helping lead, will continue. And I wonder what a speaker Jordan potentially would mean for those individuals and districts that Biden won in twenty twenty, those vulnerable Republicans. Do you realistically think they can go to the floor and allow him to get the gavel? What would it mean for them?
I think, first of all, I don't think he can be in charge of the investigation if he is the speaker, So they've got to have somebody else to back to back up the same is true, by the way, if and I still think there's a likely chance that Patrick McHenry's role as the interim speaker is somehow extended for a period of time, and if that happens, he might not be able to function as the House Financial Services Committee chairman as well. So if Jim becomes the speaker,
they have to find somebody else through investigation. What happens from there, Kaylee, I think depends on what the evidence is if they find Keep in mind, the Democrats had an an impeachment inquiry on Donald Trump for weeks before they started the actual impeachment. They didn't have the evidence until Trump gave them the transcript of the phone conversation with Zelenski. But for that they probably don't have the ability to impeach him on the floor. I think the
same is true of the Republicans. They're going through the inquiry now. If they find evidence that justifies an impeachment, then they go that route. But if they don't find anything, I don't think they can move forward. So I think the only thing that changes theirs who's running the investigation of Jim Jordan's speaker. I don't think he can run the investigation I have to.
Go back to our conversation with Jim Jordan on the second of October. Kaylee already referred to it. Nick. We were, you know exactly where we were and the balcony off the cannon rotunda. It was the day the government was supposed to be closed, and this all came up again with who wants to be speaker here?
But I do not support that. I think Kevin McCarthy's done a good job. I mean, we told the American people that we would you pass legislation rid of the eighty seven thousand IRS agents. We told the American people we'd pass the Printal Bill rights.
We did that.
We told the American people we would pass legislation to deal with the energy problem. We told the American people we would pass the toughest border security security, immigration enforcement legislation in history, and we did that.
He said he wanted Kevin to be speaker. When I asked him directly again, he said, no, I do not want to be speaker, Mick. Do you believe that your old colleague from the Freedom Caucus, Jim Jordan, actually wants this job.
No, I think he wants Kevin McCarthy to be the job. And go back to doing to leading the investigations. I think he's here, he's where he is now because what else who else is there?
I mean, when you get down to the next level, you talk about people who might have only been in Congress a couple of years.
You don't know about their conservatives, So you would.
Be a reluctant speaker in your view.
I think so.
And I gotta think Joe I got to think that he's got to deal with the far far right way with those anarchists. And again they're not conservative, they're populist anarchists. That's the Matt Gates crowd. So let's call him the anarchist wing, because they're not the freedom calls folks. He's got to have a deal with him and says, look, if I cut a bipartisan deal to open the government, are you going to try and get rid of me?
At least he's got to have a handshake that they won't do that, because again, otherwise, what's the one lesson from Kevin McCarthy's experience. If you bring a bipartisan bill to the floor of the House, you are at risk of losing your speakership. That's a really easy message to sort of deliver and to comprehend. So unless Jim has has got a deal with those folks that I don't know about, that we don't know about, then he might be in the same the same position.
Kevin has a couple of weeks from them.
Nick mulvaney, always great to spend time. Did you say whether you think he's actually going to get this vote tomorrow? Did we hear.
Engaged in the last three to four hours?
Okay, so you think he's going to get this at noon tomorrow, Mick, I think his chances went from two to ten to six and ten. All right there, it is Mick mulvainy. This is Bloomberg. Thanks for listening to the Sound on podcasts. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts, and you can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at one pm Eastern Time at Bloomberg dot com.