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It's the Tuesday edition of Balance of Power here on Bloomberg Radio, on the satellite and on YouTube. I'm Joe, Matthew and Washington and glad you joined us. This is a big deal, of course here in the DMV, as we like to call it, the mid Atlantic region, but of course nationally there is an impact from this bridge collapse that happened in the wee hours this morning in Baltimore,
the Key Bridge. If you're with us on YouTube, we're showing you pictures here, horrifying pictures of what is left at the scene here, a bridge essentially underwater after being struck by a cargo ship that ran out of power. As it turns out, around one thirty in the morning. This is of course a major commuter route and a major trade route there in the Baltimore port, in fact, the number one port for autos for the past thirteen years running we're learning a lot about the Francis Key Bridge.
Here the fire chief James Wallace briefing reporters earlier in the morning. They have pulled two people out of the water. There are as many as seven from what we understand, they're still looking for so this is still a rescue operation before we start talking about timelines and rebuilding and the rest of it. This is a major test for authorities and for politicians elected officials in Baltimore and in Maryland. And that's where we start our conversation with Bloomberg Radio's
Amy Morris. Amy, I woke up this morning and heard local news coverage that wasn't telling me a lot until I turned to Bloomberg Radio and heard what you were doing with Tom Keen. And I first want to thank you for bringing us the insights that we needed. So much of this has to do with text and the importance of this bridge for the community and for the nation in terms of a trade route is difficult to overstate. In this case, speak to us about what it means for the city.
Let's start from the granular perspective, right, you have thirty one thousand people who take this bridge every single day.
That's eleven million, and some change every year.
And last night thirty one thousand people took this bridge, and this morning the bridge is gone. They're waking up to no more bridge. And it has been a staple in the Baltimore area for so long.
It's part of the landscape. It is a landmark, and it's an.
Historic bridge as well. It's been there since nineteen seventy seven. And did you know that its birthday was this past Saturday. It's forty seven years old.
Remarkable, it was up to code. According to Wesmore. This it's not necessarily an infrastructure story. This is an emergency preparedness story. And we're going to, I'm sure, learn a lot more about the communications between that cargo ship. But they did send a mayday call before they hit the.
Brit they did, and that a small amount of time between that may day call and when the bridge collapsed was just enough time for Maryland officials to scramble and keep people from going on the bridge.
There were already some people on.
The bridge, as you mentioned, tell us about that. There are people then who could have been on the bridge who were stopped. Is that fair to say?
That is fair to say, But they would not speak to that at the press conference, but they did speak to is that there was construction going on on the bridge. You know, it's overnight. It's a major highway, so they're going to save all of the road work for when nobody's there.
And there were several.
Construction workers filling potholes, handling the concrete on the bridge.
They say the bridge was up to code, but they were just you know, doing a little maintenance and they went into the water.
Yeah, tell us about the rescue operation. I refer to as many as seven. Do we have any more detail? We've heard six thrown around? Where are we know?
I've heard six are still unaccounted for. And those are all the construction crew I see. And we heard a lot about the rescue operation and how it was a big challenge, especially at one point thirty in the morning because it was so dark, you had so many currents, the tide was coming in. And this is an area for people who are not familiar with the Baltimore Bay or the Baltimore Port area, it's the currents are a
big deal. It's a rough area, and especially since this is the river that leads into that port.
Yes, so that made the search and rescue even that much more difficult.
Great work today, Amy Morris. We're all proud to be working with Amy Morris today, have Bloomberg ready and appreciate your being with us here to get things started on balance of power. Our colleague Andrew O'Day, who also lives in the Baltimore area, described this earlier as Baltimore's Golden gate Bridge. It's difficult without living there to understand the significance of it in the community, and we wanted to start granular with Amy Morris and Widening now to talk
about the economic impact. As I mentioned, this is the most important port in America for autos. Think of the economic impact on that sector a loan, and that's why we wanted to talk with Brendan Murray, who's covering this for us as Bloomberg's trades are and used to live here in the DC Baltimore area. Brendan, it's great to see you. The economic impact is it possible to quantify yet?
Well, look, this is ifport that does about eighty billion dollars in global trade a year, so that works out to about six and a half billion per month, so you know every day it's closed, it's hundreds of millions of dollars of economic impact that are not flowing through this port. These are you know, these are good jobs, high paying jobs on the docks and and and the
industrial areas around there. So if if maritime traffic and shipping, you know, needs to come to a halt for weeks or months, however long it's going to take, that's going to be a big hit to the to the folks who work in and around the port.
So shippers like merrisk as saying that they are re routing. Now, what are the options available for shippers?
The main ones that the shipping lines are looking at would be New York, New Jersey, UH, Norfolk, the Port of Virginia.
UH.
There's also UH Charleston, South Carolina, and Savannah, Georgia. Those are also UH. And the big question is which which of these other ports can handle the added import of an export of automobiles like you mentioned. And you know that's not something that you you know, you can do if you're not if you don't have the equipment for it,
if you don't have the parking lot. You know, the ports that handle a lot of cars have these massive parking lots where the cars sit until they're you know, put on trucks or trains, you know, off on their way. So it's not that you can just you can't just turn a ship from Baltimore to any any port with with your with the with a load of cars. You know that that kind of thing has to be worked
out pretty well in advance. So uh yeah, it's gonna cost some some headaches and some congestion, uh for the next several weeks from the people that I talk to, until until the kind of initial shock of this can be absorbed.
That's for sure. We have to remind ourselves as well. Carnival and Royal Caribbean, two cruise lines that use that port actively, we're going to be understanding, I'm sure over the next twenty four to forty eight hours exactly how much reach this collapse will have. Brendan, thank you for jumping on with us. Brendan Murray covers this for a living our trade czar here with an eye of course on the port of Baltimore. We're going to have much
more for you on the story throughout the hour. My colleague Kaylee Lynes, who of course you hear every day on this broadcast, has made her way to Baltimore and we'll bring us live coverage from the scene as soon as she gets set up there, with attention paid to our other major story here in the world of politics, and that is the day of days for Donald Trump. If you were with us yesterday, we got a trial date.
Of course, we also had a remarkable development in the civil case against Donald Trump, course questioning the value of his companies as he's presented them. That led to a four hundred and fifty four million dollar penalty and he has to post bond. An appeals court yesterday brought that bond payment down by about two thirds, making life a lot easier for Donald Trump, especially as he watches his
spack take off today. This new digital world's truth social thing has put about three billion dollars in his bank account, or at least it will when he's able to sell those shares a couple of months down the road. But as we consider the value of Trump Inc. And look at the potential impact on his political career in the throes of a campaign, we wanted to talk to Tim O'Brien, who literally wrote the book on Donald Trump and his finances.
Of course, the senior executive editor of Bloomberg Opinion with us from New York. Tim O'Brien, it's great to see you. I could only imagine what was going through your mind yesterday when that appeals court dropped the bond payment that Donald Trump will have to face. Why is the court going easy on him?
Well, I think, Joe the I think the court, the appellate court, has signaled. I think that they think the lower court clearly overreached and that they you know, I think both in terms of the size of the judgment and possibly in some of the other associated penalties. You know, they also stayed a ruling that kept Trump's two eldest sons out of the business, as well as a number of other restrictions that Arthur and Gore on the lower
court judge imposed. So I think that that's a leading indicator, possibly that they're going to scale back the judgment on appeal. What surprised me was that they did this now as an interim measure. You know, I don't a typical defendant doesn't get that kind of treatment, I think, and Trump
had already ended. I mean, Trump had had these varying pardon me, he had these varying accountings of whether or not he could actually pay into escrow the amount of money he needed as a as a to essentially collateralize
the judgment against him. You know, a year ago under oath, he said he had four hundred million dollars in cash on hand and that was growing substantially each month, and then more recently he said, I actually don't have the money, and then he took to social media last Thursday and said, actually I have five hundred million dollars. So he's either been lying or very very forgetful, or he spends money at the speed that some people turn queas and arts
on and off. Be that as it may, he had demonstrated. I think that he had, by his own words, that he had the wherewithal to pay the court judgment. So I don't know why the court decided to intercede at this moment in time.
That was unusual. It is pretty yeah, pretty remarkable.
Yeah, you and I get a party.
If you and I get a party ticket and we don't pay it, you know, the fine goes up on a pretty regular basis.
So folks are getting nervous. Wonder folks are getting nervous about the idea of seizing property. Letitia James had already marked a couple in Westchester County and it looks like they will not have to be seized. Now does that play into this decision?
Well, I think she probably actually would have seized his entire portfolio because it's so complex. Some of the real estate can't be used as collateral against a bond, so she would have to get you know, equity in some of these properties. She would have gone for all the
low hanging fruit versus brokerage accounts as bank accounts. I don't think his truth social stake is as as robust as that has become, is something that any kind of surety company would have wanted as collateral because the value obviously has a great possibility at changing, including going down substantially, So it would have been very complex. And he holds
all of this. He's got about you know, four hundred and fifteen or so shell companies under the Trump organization umbrella, and only seventy of those produced revenue, So anyone attaching ascents had a lot of homework in front of them. So I think she would have done a sweeping, taken an undertaken a sweeping effort to get her hands on as much as she could.
You wrote a piece that went up on the eighteenth of this month that plays into what we're talking about here. Tim Trump's empty pockets make him an overseas mark. Pretty remarkable when you consider someone who is cash poor even though they claimed to be a billionaire, and the vulnerabilities that that might present, the liabilities and should Americans be watching well, Joe, I.
Think that's been there since he made his first tour through the White House. He has not been shy about trying to monetize the presidency. As we know when he was running back in twenty fifteen and twenty sixteen, he was trying to get a real estate done deal done at the same time in Moscow, he you know, he pulled in millions of dollars from the hotel that he owned near the White House that was host of foreign
dignitaries and emissaries. So that's oh, we lurked around him, and it has raised his question of whether or not he's making objective for policy decisions, or whether or not
someone has their hooks into him. That's even more true now if he had to scramble to pay big court judgments, which by the way, he may still have to Even though the fine in this case is but the bond amount has been reduced, I still think it pressures him because he's already had to post over I think one hundred million dollars in the EG and Carrol case, and you add, you know, another two hundred million to that, I think, you know, I think that significantly cuts into
his cash pile, and that raises issues about his ability to operate his company. So that makes him possibly vulnerable to any foreign entity that would like to make a smart investment in a possible future president.
The boom and bust cycle has been a whole of Donald Trump's career. I think we can say, and I wonder just in our remaining moment here, Tim, and I don't want to set you up with some big think question, but just to frame this in our remaining moment, Donald Trump here he is again on the verge of, you know, bringing another three billion dollars, coming down to the line, almost failing. How does he continue to reconstruct this scenario?
He is both the luckiest man on the face of the earth, and he is also an amazing grifter who is able to I think, pursue things most people don't without much embarrassment, and he stays in the battle and he knows right now, I think that he needs the insulation of the presidency to protect himself from what could be some fairly existential court judgments. And you know this spack could not have arrived at a more perfect moment, because otherwise he would have emburried.
It's financial master. Yes, isn't that the truth? He's, of course the author of Trump Nation, but also runs our opinion section on the Terminal and at Bloomberg dot Com. Senior executive Editor Bloomberg Opinion. Tim O'Bryan, Tim, thank you.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and enron Oto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
So, Larry, welcome.
It's good to have you here on the day of your annual Chairman's letter to the investors. And it's a bit of a different, I think letter from what you've done before. Personal starts with your parents, right, and they're earning, saving for retirement and include your grandkids as well. Yes, the retirement crisis. Give us your diagnosis of that problem right now.
Well, somebody I've been writing about for years, but I emphasize it in this letter. And you know, all my letters have been based on some long term issues. And let me be really truthful about my letters. My letters are a reflection of my conversation with clients.
So it is.
And so over the past year, I heard more and more conversation about retirement or retirement crisis from many parts of the world, from middle class developing countries to developed countries. The acute problem here in the United States is that we have still fifty seven million Americans who don't have any savings or any retirement plan. So security is a fantastic foundation for retirement. But if that's how you have when you retire, you're going.
To be living in.
Poverty, below the poverty line, because it just is. It's supplemental, but it's not meant to be the totality of what you have in retirement.
And the whole concept that we're aging, we're you know, we're all living longer.
And I think one of the big narratives I had to reflect in twenty twenty three was the miracles of medicine. When we talk about the drugs like a zumpec and all the different weight loss drugs, how that is extending life. It's conquering kidney disease and liver disease and heart disease and joint disease. And then there are new medicines now for dementia that extends life. So you think about the miracles of technology and how it transforms our lives and
extends our life. There is not a dialogue in America or most places about can't we afford that longevity and our entire retirement system was based on statistics that were created fifty years ago, whereby most Americans retired between sixty and sixty two then, but most Americans then.
Passed away at sixty seven.
And today, statistically a couple sixty years old in good health, one of them is going to live over ninety. And so the other question is should we re evaluate how we work and how long we work because we all need purpose in life, and in most plays most people get find purpose. Obviously maybe with their grandchildren, their children, their their community.
Many people find purpose in.
Their jobs and the thought of retiring at sixty with thirty more years or a thirty year year life in front of you. These we need to have a dialogue. We need to have a conversation. And you know, I'm an optimist. I am very optimistic about the long term vitality of our markets. I'm bullish on capitalism. The reason why I'm bullish is when I read the newspapers every morning and listen to Bloomberg and other news organizations, it's full of scary things.
We talk about the problems.
We talk about all the problems life, but we solve problems through conversation. And the one area where we have no conversation is the affordability of retirement and the whole concept of retirement. And we need to start a global and most importantly and national dialogue.
So in your letter you have a very powerful, i think, diagnosis of the problem, not just the United States but global. Yes, we are living longer, we need more money therefore to live. At the same time, there's also a bit of a pin there to capitalism and particularly capital markets and the extraordinary things they've done, what they can do. Connect the two of those up. Could we use the capital markets to address at least some of the problem we're talking about,
and let me be very specific. Social security you mentioned is really in trouble. Should we be taking the Social Security Trust Fund what's left of it and put it into capital markets.
We need to put it in a long term investment. I mean, we have a system of pay as you go. Okay, there are other countries like Australia that have a whole unique system whereby you're contributing. But there are right now in Congress there are a number of senators and congressmen that are talking about rehabilitating our security pool and maybe contributing big block of money into it so it has sufficiency. But to me, as I said, social security is just
a foundation of retirement. We need to really educate our citizens about the need for savings.
We see worldwide.
Most people who are really thrifty, they keep most of their money in a bank account. Like in Japan, almost there's a high savings rate of eighteen percent. Most of that isn't a bank account. In Europe there's a high savings rate of fifteen ish percent. Most of that's in a bank account. That is not going to provide you the adequacy of the compounding of what capital markets can do.
But probably one of the big conversations I've had with so many political leaders is the connection of retirement and the capital markets. When you think about the vitality of the US capital markets so much it's based on the long term money of pension funds of our whether it's a defined benefit plan or defined contribution plan. And Americans are more optimistic and so we have a higher investment
in equities beyond any other society. And so in my conversation with many political leaders as they think about retirement, and Japan is a great example.
The Kashida government just this.
Past October raised the amount of tax deductibility to put in your four to one k.
They double the size.
And it's not a coincidence that the Japanese equity market since October is up thirty percent, and it's because we're seeing more and more money that it is going into the long term capital markets. So not only does it give financial returns for those who are retiring and saving for retirement, but it's a big foundation for domestic companies
to have local investing in your own companies. If you look at the United States, are our equity markets generally traded a two to three pe racial higher than any place in the world. Now, you could argue we have better companies and an a place in the world, but you also have to attribute this to that we have a larger retirement system in terms of what we invested.
Now, that doesn't mean we need and we need more.
We need more money for more people to be putting it into their system.
Take it a step further, because something you're very involved in Blackrock is is alternative investments.
Yes, the private markets, credit.
Debt, things like that. Should we be changing the rules so we can put our four to one kse our iris into private markets.
I believe there are some great areas of private markets that are going to be great investments for retirement, and I would channel that more towards infrastructure because infrastructure has a long maturity, It has a higher coupon, but it has a lower profile of returns and what I would say other areas of the private markets, so it has more a good corridor of returns, but higher probabilities of
meeting those returns. And so yes, we need to be relooking at how we think about investing, whether that is going to be in private equity or infrastructure.
I do believe you know, we need to be putting more.
Long dated assets into retirement and so that you could so that you could meet the returns that you need to have the pool of money that we require during retirement.
Something else you mentioned was our longevity, which has increased substantially. We all benefit from that. That's a good thing, exactly planning at the same time, Should we be encouraging, as you suggested a letter, people working longer. Should we making a possible facility thing. Should we frankly increase the age for social security?
That is not for me to make a decision, but I think we need to have a conversation. Look at you and I are the same age. Okay, we are working longer. We have find purpose and what we do. The founder of Bloomberg, Mike, is still working. I believe. I believe for those who can and they find purpose and work, my gosh, work as long as you can. If you find blessings, if you find purpose and other things, do that. But I do believe we need to discuss these opportunities.
I don't think the average citizen knows that.
You know the extent of how much longer we're going to be able to live. You know, so the beauty and the miracles of medicine has allowed us to live you know, ten, fifteen, twenty years longer than two generations ago. And so, but we haven't changed our system of retirement
or our system of social security. So the most important thing we need to do, David, is have a conversation, and through that conversation, I think most people are going to elect to do things, maybe working longer, We're electing to be more, to be more involved in how they put their money to work for retirement.
As I say in your letter, you talk a lot about the success of the capital markets, all that they've accomplished. At the same time, you do mention the problem with particularly US debt. You think it's more urgent than anytime. I think you said you can remember in your lifetime. Put those two things together. To what extent has the success of the capital markets come, specifically because we've taken
more debt on the public balance sheet. We've shifted debt from private balance sheets to public balance sheets.
No question.
Let's just use a statistic, and I think when I talk about this statistic, I get frightened.
In the year.
Two thousand, the US deficit was eight trillion dollars today it's thirty four trillion dollars. So twenty three years later we increased our deficit by twenty six trillion dollars. So for the first two hundred and thirty forty years, we increased our deficit the eight trillion, and in the last twenty three years we went we increased it by twenty six trillion dollars. I think that speaks volumes of what's
happening in our country today. The problem with these type of deficits is and now, with and I believe higher interest rates for longer, the cost of financing our deficits are going to erode more and more of our of our disposable income as a country.
And I do.
Believe there we're getting to a point where our public debt is going to start up crowding out private capital, and we're going to have structurally higher interest rates.
What can the private sector do to trigger some action in that regard. I mean, you're the head of the largest asset manager in the world. IRY think it's not just you, but you have some influence. At this point, we have Candide running for president who aren't even talking about this.
That's not even a conversation.
So in my letter, I talk about the need for more public private investments. Well, the United States is one of the last countries where we've had private capital investing
in our infrastructure. And I believe if we changed our policies, privatized our airports and privatized maybe our ports and having private capital investing that then our public spending could be rededicated to more urgent social needs, more urgent needs, elevating our education, elevating issues around social security and healthcare.
And so I.
Believe the need is to rethink what is a role and responsibility of a public sector for the development of better twenty first century infrastructure.
We know that we are going to have.
To digitize our entire economy, we know we're going to have to move forward on carbonization. These require huge pools of money. Allow the private sector to be part of that. We have this enormous functional capital markets that can provide the capital we as a country must use it more often and access the role of private sector.
And so I think we still.
You know, that does not change the course of our deficits, but we could certainly reallocate some of our monies into more urgent issues and I would say, and my letter speaks about it to we need to grow our economy so our deficits are a smaller component of our GDP. That is the bigger issue. If we continue to just grow at two percent and we have these type of deficits, that's when the deficits really are going to be a.
Problem out five and ten years.
But you suggest three percent, is that realistic?
We need that has to be our target.
We need to find ways of growing at three percent instead of just cutting taxes, or we need to find ways of insenting private capital to be investing more.
We need to encourage growth, and we need to.
Be and this is a debate now and there's a lot of people talking against this. We need to embrace our capitalism because our capitalism has shown to be the best economic force in the world.
And finally, Larry, let's come back to the personal here for a moment. As you mentioned, you and I happened to be exactly the same age, right, we're boomers. Yes, we have some responsibility to the succeeding generation that I'm not sure with delivering on how much of your letter was really saying to us boomers. We owe it to our children and our grandchildren to get our arms around these problems.
We were born at a great economic moment. It's we all have a responsibility to try to recreate that environment for our grandchildren and hopefully make a better outcome for our children. But now at our age, we've got to be focused on the future for our grandchildren.
Okay, Larry, thank you so much. Really great to have you here. That's Larry Fink, He's Black chairman and CEO. Joe back to you.
David Weston, thank you. Fascinating conversation, having read mister Fink's letter this morning and something that we were looking forward to. Recalling the conversation that we were having here in Washington about the retirement age just days ago, and I want to hear from the panel on this. Rick Davis is with us here along with Brad Howard, as we dig into the politics of this, Recalling the conversation about social security in the budget that emerged Rick Davis from the
Republican Study Committee. Highly controversial, it actually addressed the issue and recommended increasing the age for retirement. This is something that neither presidential candidate will touch. Right now, we're going back to the old lock box. Here is it time to start having this conversation out loud.
Well, you kind of started that conversation at the presidential level when you interviewed Nicki Haley this primary cycle and got heard talking about Social Security. And the bottom line is, I think what Larry Fink points out is just a fact Berkans are living longer, We're being more productive in that old age. Medicine has given us a new chance to extend our lives, and yet public policy isn't following
any of that. And as you point out, Rick Scott in the Republican Study Committee and Nikki Haley have said something about needing to reform Social Security. It is on the brink of being a financial disaster, and yet presidential candidates Donald Trump and Joe Biden seem to feel like it's some kind of toxic third rail that you can't talk about in politics, and you.
Know you'd be a disaster if you did.
I think Americans are more sophisticated than that, and I think a national dialogue is exactly what Larry Fink has calm for and I think it's a smart move on his part.
With the Democratic view, Brad Howard in our remaining moment in this conversation, Brad, We've got an eighty one year old president. All we do is talk about age around here in Washington, d C. How come we can't have this conversation.
Well, look, the critics, it isn't that we're having. The conversation is that the Republican proposal immediately makes seniors bear the burden of the bad decisions of Washington. And I think Democrats want to look at it more holistically, like there's there's ways you can tax the wealthy, or to help ensure the longevity of a SOB Security Trust fund, there's other mechanisms like why are millionaires and billionaires getting
so security benefits? Those are questions that Democrats are asking, So I think why no. The criticism is that they're looking at it from this angle. But let me say like, there was a strong momentum behind a bipartisan national commission that would look at the nation's debt, including entitlement spending, which is so security and medicare. It made it through that. It was the Scott Peters Bill. It made it through the Budget Committee on a bipartisan vote, and Democrats were
willing to go forward with this. Who killed it was Grover Norquist and the Americans for Tax Reform because they left on the table the idea of raising taxes to help ensure the longevity of SOB security. So you know, both sides have are are to blame here, but again the criticism and not that they're bringing it up. The criticism is their proposal to do.
So a right Howard and Rick Davis are great panel. Today.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then Brounoto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Ballance of Power. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. Normally I would say alongside Kaylee Lines, but Kaylee is in Baltimore today having responded to the bridge collapse this morning, and we want to bring you up to date on what is happening there because the administration is now responding. It's not just local officials. We heard from Joe Biden live here on this program just within the last hour, pledging that the federal government will
pay for the bridge replacement in full. They will not wait to find out who was at fault or whether the shipping line is liable in this case. After the Dolly lost power that cargo ship and slammed into the bridge, bringing it down. Most of that bridge underwater right now, and Kaylee joins us from the scene. Kaylle, we understand the Transportation Secretary is on his way there today.
Yes, we do expect, Joe, that Secretary Buddha Jedge will be coming here to view the scene to partake in the efforts, which, of course, right now is still a search and rescue effort as we speak, at the invitation
of Governor Wesmore. We have not yet seen the Secretary arrived, but of course we'll keep all on Bloomberg television and radio posted as we do have developments here, and of course he will likely reiterate what we have heard, as you said from the President, that the federal government is going to be leading this effort in terms of financing
the reconstruction of this bridge. Of course that could be a figure in the billions of dollars potentially, and of course, before any reconstruction effort can be underway, they do have to clear out just the debris that is currently in the river behind me. Keeping in mind that basically the entirety of this bridge collapsed and started to be at
least partially submerged. It is going to take some time to get all of that out, to clear out the waterway, not just so the bridge can be reconstructed or that project can begin, but also so that the port can be reopened and that ships can transit this waterway. Once again, it's worth keeping in mind here as we think about
the timeline, which could be potentially very long. Governor Moore talked about it being a long haul project earlier this morning at a press conference, but also the question of how quickly this financing can be secured. When President Biden said he does intend for the federal government to pick up the tab on this, he said that he does expect Congress will approve that. But we know that this president hasn't had an immense degree of ease in asking
Congress for money and that passing in an expeditious matter. Joe, we all know what just happened with government funding. Of course, there is a supplemental request, including emergency aid for US allies like Ukraine and Israel, that still hasn't been acted. On by the House, so we'll see just how quickly it can work its way through the workings of the federal government as state officials are responding here in real time today, that's for sure.
Kayleie, We're really glad that you could get there and bring this information to us. Thank you for being at the scene. You'll be hearing from Kaylee of course throughout the day here on Bloomberg Radio and TV, my partner here on Balance of Power doing the good work that you're hearing. We started our broadcast talking with Amy Morris from Bloomberg Radio, who really brought home the impact that this has on a local level. We're going to talk a lot in the days and weeks ahead about the
national impact, maybe even international economic impact on trade. The biggest port in America for autos, the ninth largest overall coal shipments being brought to a standstill now for some six weeks. But if you live in the Baltimore area, this is your home. It's actually known or was as the Golden gate Bridge of Baltimore, was part of the skyline there and this is something that is hitting the community hard. We're actually hearing now from the sports teams
in Baltimore. The orioles out with a statement that says, in part, Baltimore, We're a tight knit and resilient city. Together, we will get through this. The Baltimore ravens similar. We know that the Baltimore community will stand together in the
aftermath of this tragic event. We'll have a lot more for you on the later edition of Balance of Power, starts at five pm Washington time here on Bloomberg TV and Radio, in a conversation with former Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood, among others, who will join us to talk about the impact and the recovery. Here on a day that we would typically be leading with the new Bloomberg Swing State Pole,
we got new numbers out this morning. There has been so much breaking news so far today I haven't had a chance to get to it until now, And as we heard from Joe Biden ahead of his trip to North Carolina, the news is quite good for him. The blue wall we talk so much about may in fact be in place for him by the time we vote,
if the trajectory remains intact in the polling that we've seen. Bloomberg, of course, working with morning consults on this on the monthly this has been a rolling pole, if you will, or a monthly pole that we've been updating in the seven swing states that will likely to side the election, will likely pick the next president of the United States.
The headline on the terminal Biden erases Trump's lead in blue wall states he needs to win, and to that end, we bring in Eli Yoakley, US politics analyst that morning consult our partners on this poll. Eli, It's great to see you back. Where is Joe Biden making headway?
Things are looking a little better for President Biden since we last checked in on this. Joe Biden has improved his standing in Michigan, a very key states his reelection. He's made improvements in Nevada, and in North Carolina, and in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Look, he's above water for the first time in our survey since October in Wisconsin. This is positive forward movement. But look, he still faces a
very tough electorate this year. We've seen some signs of improvement in terms of the favorability rating, how folks are thinking about the economy, the kind of news voters are taking away about the president. But in a number of these states he's still trailing President Trump.
And to be tied in Pennsylvania. Let's be honest, Eli, this is home for Joe Biden. He's been to that state I think more than any other since he's been in office. He went up there to drop his budget, He's delivered some very important speeches. He calls Scranton home. Whether you buy into that narrative in the biography, is that the first place the campaign needs to get to work.
I mean, he's spent a tremendous amount of time there. It's like I'm running joke that he goes there every month. He goes there a lot. It's an important state for him, it's an important state for Democrats. I think one thing that he's going to need to lean into there is convincing voters that the economy at the local level has actually improved.
It's one of the worst states right now.
We saw a trend across all of these states we tested where economic sentiment, the kind of the way people are thinking about the direction of the economy, has gone on the rise across the swing safe map, and it's been driven by perceptions of their local economy. Pennsylvania has one of the states where that is still underwater. The President has an opportunity here to try to make that case.
But right now it's not breaking to the same extent that it is in places like Wisconsin, where he finally has a lead over Trump.
Something we said about peaking late in this game. Eli, if you're Joe Biden and you're looking out across the next eight months, here you see people feeling better about the economy now, knowing that interest rates might be coming, knowing that you have twice as much cash on hand as Donald Trump. When you look to I guess across the valley here to November. If you're this campaign, do you not see the stars aligning.
I think that it's early in this campaign.
I mean a good chunck of voters a couple months ago didn't even think that Donald Trump would be denominated, or they.
Weren't so sure.
A number of voters still say that the American people are not paying attention to this, or at least hadn't been paying attention to this to the extent that Washington is. I think we're seeing signs that more voters are paying attention. I think that folks are taking note of as Biden
would cast, at the threat of another Trump presidency. That is something that he's going to need to rely on, very, very heavily to try to rebuild that anti Trump coalition that got him the White House in the first place. It wasn't really a pro Biden coalition that got across the finish slide four years ago. It was an anti Trump coalition, and you're starting to see signs in places
like Wisconsin that is materializing. Some of this is driven by independent voters, who are far more likely to cast their vote if they're supporting Joe Biden as a vote against Donald Trump than a vote for the incumbent. This negative energy activates folks, and the Biden campaign is going to need to spend a lot of time in the coming months to try to revive that as it builds up perceptions of its own handling of the presidency.
Spending time with Eli Yoakley at Morning consult, Eli, I'm really struck by something that everyone seems to agree on here, Progressives as well as Donald Trump supporters eat the rich. This is something that came out of the poll here. Those sixty nine percent those you pulled in seven swing states favor higher taxes on billionaires, even Americans making over four hundred thousand dollars a year. What else can you tell us about this?
Yeah, it turns out that the vast majority of the American people like taxing the rich.
It's very popular. And by the way, it's very popular among Trump supporters too.
I mean, over half of Donald Trump's support support taxing people who make over four hundred thousand dollars A good number of them, about a third, which which is a lot of Republicans support tax raising taxes on corporations. This is the two major parties maybe finding a place of agreement on a populist policy, which is maybe the American people think the rich are making too much money right now.
We saw some of this.
Emerge during the inflation discussion early in Biden's presidency, where a lot of voters were blaming corporations for being greedy.
Yeah.
I think this is an underlying current in American politics. So Donald Trump has had a lot of luck allowing the Republican Party to tap into it's where I think people normally are with the Democratic Party. But if you could see if he moves forward in this campaign and maybe try to offer some compromises to restore his twenty fifteen tax cuts for all Americans, maybe a place of possible common ground in the next presidency.
Well, that's how does that help Trump? Though? This is the man behind the twenty seventeen tax cuts. He's a billionaire. This is actually what we're talking about. He wants to lower the corporate tax rate, doesn't he?
Yeah.
I think it helps Trump in the sense that a good number of people associate the Republican Party more with people like them than they did before he took over. He is rebuilding a populist regardless of his wealth and his billionaire status.
He has helped rebuild the Republican.
Party's brand as a party of the cares more about everyday Americans. The other thing that stands out in this, by the way, is the American people seem inclined to be on board with some of his tariff discussion. He's talked a lot about raising of tariffs on some foreign imports.
The American people seem to be there.
That seems like something that might raise costs for everyday folks. But this going after big business is more protectionist bent in America's populist bit in American politics is something that is becoming a bit of a unifier this year.
That's pretty remarkable. I guess the populist election, even if it doesn't always agree with one candidate or the other, you go with the message. Eli. We've been talking a lot about third parties lately. No Labels is scratch and looking for a candidate. Here, RFK Junior is trying to make news. You put up a running mate today, even though he's only on a couple of ballots. Is this going to be a factor in pulling and actual election results in the November.
I mean, some of these states are so close. I mean, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin are tight, tight races. A couple points here and there matter a lot. I think what stood out in this latest survey is that RFK does pull from President Biden along with folks like Cornell West and Jill Stein.
It's going to be something to watch. I mean, RFK keeps getting.
More popular in all of these surveys. There's not been much of an effort against him yet, and we're still going to see what kind of balance he can get on.
But you know, the.
Presidence of some of these third party candidates, especially when so many voters dislike both of the major party candidates, is obviously something that both side Saints watched and right now it does appear to be a bit of a challenge for President Biden.
Fascinating stuff here with so much time left. Eli. You know, we started this campaign cycle warning everybody don't read into national polls too much. Here there's too much time to go, and this poll really seems to underscore that argument. If you're not looking specifically at Wisconsin, if you're not looking specifically at Pennsylvania, for instance, these are two that we've really isolated in our conversation here, you have no idea what's going on in this campaign.
Yeah, I mean we always think of our national surveys as a leading indicator. I mean, we saw some of this in the national data we collected after the State of the Union that fewer voters were concerned about the president's age. Since Donald Trump won the Super Tuesday contest, we started to see this race solidify in a very
tight way. But the importance of what we're doing every single mompp helps explain to the American people what's happening on the ground in some of these key states and pick up some of these small movements.
They're going to matter a lot come November.
Are we going to be talking about a blue wall in November.
We're always talking about a blue wall. Well, we talked about a blue wall, will be talking about Arizona. We've already heard folks start talking about North Carolina and we'll see how that pans out.
But it does appear that, you know, folk places.
Like Wisconsin and Michigan are going to be a big deal come November.
You come on today, Eli, Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.