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Welcome back to reality here in the Monday edition of Balance of Power on Bloomberg Radio, on the satellite, and on YouTube, where we invite you to join us. Search Bloomberg Global News you'll find our live stream. We're often running here with big questions about what's going to happen even tomorrow in this presidential race. Of course, we're a week away, a week from today, the Republican National Convention starting in Milwaukee. We'll meet you there right at this
time in one week. What happens between now and then? A big question here, as Joe Biden survived the interview, saw it right? What did I see? Eight million of you watched it? Maybe I'm inflating that number versus the fifty million who watched the debate days earlier. The President sends a letter to start off the week, not a dear colleague, but essentially the same thing here you can
read it right on the terminal. Pretty fascinating. A letter to Democrats in Congress who are just returning back to town. I am firmly committed to staying in the race, he writes, to running this race to the end and to beating Donald Trump. I wouldn't be running again if I didn't absolutely believe I was the best person to win, he says. And that's not all. We saw some campaigning over the weekend without a teleprompter, and then the big phone call
this morning to a friendly crowd. Joe Biden called Morning Joe on MSNBC, where, of course he was asked about this idea of dropping out, resounding hell no is the answer. Let's listen, it's.
Not an option. And I'm not lost. I haven't lost. I beat him last time, I'll beat him this time. And this is a guy who, look we talk about debate, look at his performance to debates. He lied over you know, Trump has fifty lies. I mean, look, this is a guy who says ten percent of the universe. Yeah, I want to get into bet he's just a liar. And he hadn't done a damn thing since the debate.
Hasn't done a damn thing since the debate, he says, step drive around the golf cart. And we haven't seen a lot of Donald Trump since the debate, But what do we think about what we've seen of Joe Biden. By the way, on the phone there the extended phone call, we all have Donald Trump to thank for normalizing the morning phone call to cable news shows. Just keep on going,
they'll never hang up on you. As we bring Jordan Fabian in on the conversation, someone who has spent more time around Joe Biden than probably anyone you're going to talk to today. By that we mean he is Bloomberg White House correspondent, and Jordan, it's great to see you. Bizarre weekend for Joe Biden. I guess, bizarre day today, and it's going to stay that way through another demanding week.
I've been saying the real test is actually this week in this NATO news conference he's gonna have to hold on Thursday. Do you agree?
Yeah, it's gonna be the latest or the latest and long line of tests. But getting up there in front of reporters unscripted, you know, even without I know they aired the whole ABC interview, but it's gonna be his biggest you know, cognitive mental tests, as he described it in that interview. He's going to have to hold court not only on his you know, on his future in politics, but also with the NATO alliance.
That's a lot of things.
That's something that foreign leaders are very concerned with, whether he is the stamina to serve another four years and keep the liberal world order together. And that's a lot of heavy stuff that he's going to have to tackle on Thursday. Well, let's pick through both of these and we'll start with the more obvious that the question of stamina here and the questions that folks like you are
going to be lobbing at him on Thursday. I suspect it's not going to be all about how much money our allies are paying it a NATO.
It's going to be how tired are you? How do you feel? Are you dropping out? Is it going to be an hour of that?
I'm sure there's going to be more than one by the apple, I mean, whether it's an hour, how long? He can't a statis in short though, That's the thing, and he hasn't done extended one of these things, even in the solo news conferences.
He's done.
You know, it's been more like the twenty thirty minute variety, not the hour. There's been a lot of reporting about how Joe Biden, the first Lady was very upset with that very long news conference he did after the twenty twenty terms. Yeah, yeah, and so since it was an hour and a half or something, right, something like that, it was a marathon. But he hasn't done anything like that.
And it's like, we're coming up on two years and he is facing the biggest political crisis of his presidency, and so you know, his critics want to see him do something folsome like that now that cut it short, they mean they could, and that's going to further fuel the worries that he doesn't have the stamina to do this for another four years.
Well, so talk to us about what we have here today. I've barely mentioned Capitol Hill his letter. I did read a portion of two Democrats, but we've got what ten now, including four senior Democrats in the House, calling for him to step down, either publicly or in this virtual meeting that the leadership held last night, a call usually held on Wednesdays. They moved it up because of such extreme levels of concern. But it strikes me this White House
and this campaign isn't having any of it. That's why he called Morning Joe today. Has any of this caused doubts within the inner circle. It was a preemptive shot across the bow. Definitely.
Between the the letter and that TV interview, he knew that lawmakers are coming back from the July fourth holiday of the town, that the questions about his candidacy were going to be multiplying on Capitol Hill, and he wanted to shut down this talk about push him off the
ticket and basically challenging congressional Democrats. Listen, you know, do something or get off the stage either, you know, challenge me, come out, you know, make that Nixonian drive down Pennsylvania Avenue and asked me to get out of the race, challenge me at the convention, or get behind my candidacy and let's beat Donald Trump. Because I think he is tired a lot of you know, you mentioned some of
those lawmakers have come out privately. He's tired of all these little leaks coming out in the leaks, Yeah about the lawmakers you know, behind closed doors having in highing. He's basically saying put up or shut up, and you know, look, there's a lot of questions about whether he should remain in the race, but you can't blame him and that divided party, a party that's infighting. You know, whether or not the nominee has been crippled at this point, is
going to have a hard time beating Donald Trump. Press office treating you in any different way than before the debate, or is it business as usual at the White House? I mean, they're certainly on their toes. I mean there's a lot of reporting over the weekend about this word in the ABC interview where he said yes and the good pressuring ABC to change the transcripts exactly. And so
this is the level that they're operating at. I mean, it's you know, in some ways you could say they've lost the plot a bit, and as far as challenging these things here and there instead of you know, trying to you know, level set with Frankly, I mean not only members but the news media who feel like, you know, the Biden operation has been less than truthful in dealing with all these questions about your age and fitness, et cetera.
Safe to say you've heard from the Press office more often since the debate than you were. Yeah, certainly. Yeah, he's in the middle of the hurricane everybody. Jordan Fabian, great to see thanks. After a wild weekend at the White House and on the trail he covers the White House for us here at Bloomberg. Looked for his byline
because the next big job here is NATO. The summit starts tomorrow and there are thirty one world leaders other than Joe Biden wondering about this whole conversation we're having right now. We saw Jen Stoltenberg twisting himself into a
pressol on Sunday morning television. Be very careful. They're all going to be very careful unless your name's Victor Orbon of course, but that's another matter when it comes to European leaders weighing in on Joe Biden's veracity, and they're all going to be together in the same room this week. If you add the noise from over the weekend, French election and of course a new prime minister in the UK, this ought to be a pretty wild week and that's why we wanted to talk to Andreas Kluth about it.
He's writing about it, of course at Bloomberg Opinion. Great to see you, sir Jo. This is a tough headline Biden needs to go for NATO's sake. To what's being said behind closed doors as these leaders prepared to arrive in DC.
What's being said behind closed and in front of the closed doors, around all doors is there are so many things that NATO has to worry about, even as they're trying to celebrate something which is seventy five years of
the most successful packed defensive packed in history. But on top of all the other worries about Ukraine and so forth, they now have, I would say, and the most existential worry, which is the weakness, the frailty as displayed in the debate on TV, but the weakness of the putative leader of this as US President and now also a host
of this alliance, which is Joe Biden. And the alternative to you know, given the uncertainty, what is next for the alliance because of the alternative being Trump comes in, it could be curtains and even if Biden steps down, there'll be uncertainty, although I think it'll be less bad than what we have now is more of this, more of a frail week leadership.
How much of this Joe Biden that America seems to be waking up to, since the debate at least is already known among particularly our European allies, he was just a normandy. In fact, he made two trips. They see more of him, frankly than a lot of Democratic lawmakers see of this Joe Biden. Is this a surprise or do they feel like there's been some gaslighting?
God there, I don't mean to pile on on Biden, but that they are not surprised. And as you said, they spend unscripted time with him, probably more than some people here stateside, and they've been at the G eight summit, at varies, other summits Normandy. But before that, even last October,
they've encountered and of course the same episodes happen. Then he trails off, he mumbles, there are moments, then he comes back, and so they've been worried and thinking, okay, how long can this stone worried.
Just the fact that you said that alone is important.
They have noticed some of them more and more than others. There are many of them are weak. Macron is weak. He's essentially lame duck. He's lost control of his parliament
in Spain and Germany, they're a week. The strongest one is arguably the new UK Prime Minister, But the one that matters is the US President, not because he's host but because the US he's US President, and everyone looks forward to November and then January and what happens next when someone comes in who would like to withdraw if he could, from the Alliance although Congress has made that hard, but could defund, could essentially hobble the Alliance in a
hundred other ways just by being vague about Article five. So what happened and if someone if Biden does step down, which I think would be good, as my title said in the column for NATO, because you want to resolve this uncertainty, Well then who is it next?
Now?
I don't think that you know, we have nineteen forty five. I think like Harry Truman came in at a very crucial moment in history and immediately showed some of the strongest leadership in history. So it is possible, and there are other good options, but right now they're any kind of limbo.
Do these leaders have a feel about Kamala Harris?
It could be Kamala Harris or someone else they do, or we're talking just about foreign policy, and she kind of did a debut. She's been traveling, She's been going to lots of summits in place of Biden. He's been good about lettings to get Biden. The Unich Security Conference was a big moment she in terms of the substance the content, they are the same atlanticist, pro allies, pro alliances, internationalist, not isolationist like Trump, not transactionalist, but principles and back
in Ukraine, back in Taiwan, sending the right messages. The issue is does she have the knowledge of the experience. I mean that was supposed to be Joe Biden's thing for decades. He knows everyone in world politics. She has started to meet people in world politics for the last couple of years. But she at the Munich Security Conference, she gave a good speech, better than most of her domestic speeches. And if it were her, I think she might well rise to the occasion.
As we spend time with Andreas Klouf writing for Bloomberg Opinion, there's so much talk of Trump proofing the Alliance at this meeting. What do they mean by that? What could they actually do?
You cannot Trump prove this alliance, which was always in the key was always the American nuclear and conventional military umbrella over Canada, but mainly Europe. If you take that away, there's very little left. What is the one alternative they could work on. It's what this idea has been around since the fifties when the French shot it down over worries about the Germans. It's the European army. So to
build a second pillar, a European pillar of NATO. Madeline Albright and Americans until recently were against that because they were word it would duplicate processes, be redundant and so forth. But I think now, given that America wants to under anybody in future presidents withdraw and pivot to Asia, the Europeans will have to form a pillar of their own. And the sad thing Joe is that they won't. They're not.
They're going in the opposite direction with populist rising in Europe that want to renationalize Europe as opposed to integrate and form a common defense pillar, maybe even a Commas is fascinating.
So against the backdrop of French elections over the weekend, you see that as being less likely because the idea is Europe would then have the end up an army essentially in the vacuum left by Trump, they would Europe.
Would have to solve things like who would command this army. It's not just about defense procurement, who would command it? But I'll give you just the hardest right on top, what about the nuclear umbrella? If there is doubt America still has about one hundred estimated tactical nuclear warheads in Europe.
Trump could pull those out.
Who would defend Europe against Russian blackmail or even the actual use. Only the French and the Brits have nukes within NATO? Would they extend theirs their umbrella over Europe? Would Germany have to get nukes Poland would they have to form a European union? Did this I don't think at the moment can be resolved. And that's why we're at a difficult moment in history.
Fascinating and really important that we point you to Andreas's column. Biden needs to go for NATO's sake. Andreas Kluth, great to have you with us here an important week. Let's talk at the conclusion of this summit and see where we are with so many questions about what will be accomplished. If anything more than a photo op. But for Joe Biden, a news conference that'll take place late Thursday. You'll see it and hear it, of course, right here on Bloomberg
TV and on YouTube. But lo and behold the best poll for Joe Biden in months. Yeah, we'll talk about it next, only on Balance of Power on Bloomberg Radio.
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The Monday edition of Balance of Power. I am Joe Matthew, and we have breaking news a couple of headlines here coming from the presidential campaign, in specific to the Trump campaign, with a conference call under way a short time ago, in which it has been confirmed what we've already been reporting that Trump will announce his vice presidential candidate by next Monday. And of course one week from today is
the start of the Republican National Convention show. So that shouldn't be huge news based on what we've been learning so far, the Washington Post reporting this morning that has come down to two, most likely jd Vance and Marco Rubio if you believe that Governor Doug Bergham also said
to still be in the mix. We also now have, interestingly, our first glimpse at the party platform that will be adopted here as part of the Republican National Committee, and of course, with the standard bearer being Donald Trump, the presumptive nominee, not a surprise to see it written in all caps. We're going to pick through some of these
elements here. On the day that Joe Biden decided to pick up the telephone and call into MSNBC and another attempt to try to tamp down calls for him to drop out of the presidential race following his performance in the debate that despite his best showing yet in the Bloomberg News Swing statephole that just came out over the weekend, here's a taste of Joe Biden on Morning Joe earlier today.
But I don't care what those big names tins. They're wrong in twenty twenty they're wrong in twenty twenty two about the red wave, they're wrong in twenty twenty four, And go with it come out with me, watch people react, you make.
A judgement, and that's where we start our conversation with Laura Davison, Bloomberg's politics editor, who had a busy weekend. You might suggest your phone's probably still blowing up right now. So it's very kind of you to join me, and it's great to see you. I hope you had a great holiday. This was the latest attempt here before we go through this party platform that we're going to hear
about in Milwaukee next week. Joe Biden picks up the phone this morning, arguably calling a friendly crowd here to talk to a supportive broadcaster, or we're going to get more of this. Does that mean that it's working?
It definitely means that that Biden is definitely feeling the pressure, feeling a little bit more desperate. There was also a letter he sent to all House Democrats today, House and Senate Democrats saying, hey, look, I'm not going anywhere. It's time to unite, almost chastising them a little bit of like, hey, you know, we're wasting time here.
You know, I'm staying put, you know.
Then he goes calls into MSNBC trying to reach you know, the broader electorate, you know, Democratic base.
And then he just had a call that just ended.
Moments ago with top donors where he said, look, you know, we need to stop wasting time. We all need to get behind me. This, you know, is a really critical time for the campaign. Is that you know, if you have a lot of donors in full freak out here, who are you know, deciding whether to withhold donations to the party or give to only House and Senate.
All of this is not good news for President Biden.
Full freak out is the headline. We have ten now House Democrats for seniors, either publicly or off the record on this call that took place last night, calling for him to step down. He was trying to head this off with the letter that you described this morning. It's two pager, tersely written, I'm going nowhere is the sentiment here, i am not dropping out of this race. How many
more Democrats are we going to hear from? I'm assuming this is the prelude to the real headline of how many Democrats in the House following tomorrow's caucus meeting.
Yes, remember that that House and Senate democrats really haven't been together since the debate they've been on recess. It's been the fourth of July holiday, So tonight they will all descend back upon the Capitol and there will be all sorts of chatter amongst themselves, kind of polling their colleagues, seeing where everyone is. You know, it takes a lot of guts to you know, those ten that have come out and say, look, you know, I want the leader
of my party to step down. If Biden doesn't, you can imagine that they are not going to be on a short list for any sort of special appointment or getting the President to help support their.
Bill or call.
So we will really see, you know, by midday tomorrow. You know, is this just a small group of outliers who you know, in some cases we're never huge fans of Biden, or are we going to see you know, dozens more potentially come out and say, look, Biden needs to go.
At what point that the pressure on.
Biden really amps up if he has you know, a good portion of his party saying hey.
We need you to go, even as he declares he's going nowhere here. This show of confidence is only good until it's not right, And there seems to be this tacit Friday deadline, How does he do it, Nato? How does he do in the news conference on Thursday? Is that a fair read?
That is at least kind of what the conventional thinking is, you know, of course, you know it's not to say, like say he survives to Friday and then there's another incident next week. That doesn't necessarily mean that he's safe. It still will be a persistent issue throughout this campaign, and that is really the pressure on Biden and the problem for Biden. You know, any sort of mistake, any sort of miss speaking, you know, a trip, a fall, all those things will be heavily, heavily scrutinized.
For sure, We're going to Milwaukee in a week, as we mentioned, we're going to be talking about Donald Trump's campaign and likely a vice presidential candidate that could potentially give Joe Biden another week's time. So let's focus on Milwaukee for a second. Here, Washington Post says it's down to two jd or Mark Rubio. Do we really believe that with Donald Trump? Does he actually even know? He said it's already in his head or something like that. But he's known for doing what's not expected.
Well, and he likes to also kind of kind of keep the tension up till the very last minute. You know, this is really you know, Apprentice two point zero, you know, a game style, game show style announcement here. You know, Well, he has this rally on Tuesday night, Marco Rubio. It's in Florida, Marco Rubio will be there. He has another rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday night, and then of course
the RNC and Milwaukee next week. So lots of different opportunities to either one just bring all the candidates and have them you know, out on stage saying nice things about him doing a final audition, or you know, he could use these other opportunities to to roll out his his VP pick. But this is going to be, you know, a time for him to shine. He's also very cognizant about the timing. While Biden is having a bad day, you hate to take the spotlight away from your opponent
who's struggling. So that's a lot of the thinking that's happening behind the scenes at the Trump campaign.
Before we bring in Eli Oakley at morning consults, and these numbers are pretty remarkable for Joe Biden to have his best showing against the backdrop of this whole conversation. Look look at this platform, Republican Party platform for Milwaukee number one. By the way, these are kind of bullets here. It's a list all caps. I guess maybe Donald Trump wrote this, or it's on the spirit of Trump. Seal
the border. Number one, Stop the migrant invasion. It says, to carry out the largest deportation operation in American history. First two on immigration. Three end inflation, Make America affordable again. Maybe that should be a T shirt. Then we go down to a lot of other things. Stop outsourcing, large tax cuts, and it gets to be a little bit out there, as you can cancel the electric vehicle mandate is fifteen for instance, seventeen keep men out of women's sports.
How should people interpret this platform? Does it matter?
This is basically a summary of Biden's or of Trump's rather rally speeches. You know, these are the points he makes time and time again. These are not, you know, serious policy proposals. This is not, you know, something that could be turned into legislation. But this is capturing the essence of Donald Trump and what he stands for. You know, above those twenty bullet points, there's a little pre am that's written very much sounds like it's in the voice of Trump.
You know, this is not a.
Party platform like anything we've ever seen before. The last time Republicans did one was in twenty sixteen. They didn't even bother doing one in.
Twenty twenty twenty, which was a big deal of it.
And this is really sort of a campaign document. This is if you were to compare this to what's on Donald Trump's you know, website that's been out there for months on all his policy positions, very very similar.
So this will be the official platform. This is what we'll be talking about next week. And Joe Biden's going to be hitting the road while we're there. He's got what Texas, Nevada, that's the plan. Travel while Donald Trump is in Milwaukee.
Travel, donation, campaign events, all sorts of stuff.
You know, he's in.
His campaign has been very you know, aggressive at sort of making sure we know, hey, here's where the president's going, here's what he's doing.
He's not dropping out, of.
Course, I will add that how this always works is you can't signal you're going to drop out until the exact second you are, So that right, you will expect him to be you know, firmly defiant, you know, up until the point if he does, you know, announce that.
He's That's the most important thing. I feel like you can tell our viewers and listeners today because that is going to be the case until it isn't people expecting it. Well, I don't know. I think maybe I will drop out. Just aren't reading this properly. So all of these interviews have to be viewed in that regard. I'll meet you in a week in Milwaukee. Laura Davison will be central
to our coverage. There is Bloomberg Politics Editor, and we'll look forward to special coverage from the RNC as we turn our attention back to the Bloomberg New Swing State Pole. We do this with Morning consult and that's why we
call in Eli Yoakley on a Pole day. The numbers came out over the weekend and quite remarkable to find Joe Biden not only narrowing the gap with Donald Trump and the states that will decide this election, but in fact scoring his best showing yet in the most comprehensive, the first comprehensive look at the swing states since the debate that was said to be a disaster. So Eli, welcome back. It's great to have you US politics analyst
at morning consult Are you scratching your head? How do you rationalize the timing on this poll?
What a time to be alive? I mean, who knew there's nothing not surprising in politics anymore. Look, I mean, Joe Biden, all these contests in all these states that we've a bit now nine times are pretty close. Trump has a bigger advantage in Pennsylvania, you know, Joe Biden has a bigger advantage in Wisconsin. But a lot of these races are really tight. You know, we survey voters, thousands of voters every day nationally, and we haven't seen
much of a movement since the debate. My takeaway from that is a lot of this stuff is already baked in about Joe Biden. I mean, for the last few years, Republicans have worked really hard to inundate this he's too old message. A lot of voters thought that. The only thing that seems different this time is elis and Washington are starting to take notice.
Well, that's for sure, and when lawmakers get back, they could make a lot of noise for Joe Biden. Here the headline to start at the top, elive forty seven percent, Donald Trump forty five for Joe Biden. That's when we consolidate the numbers from the states. But when you look under the hood a little bit, and if you're with us on Bloomberg TV, you can see our map, Joe Biden leads Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin, very important when we consider the blue wall here, he's so far though,
farthest behind in the critical state of Pennsylvania. Is that the most important thing for Joe Biden to turn around right now?
Oh for sure.
I mean, if he gets Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, he probably dons reelection. I think that's why you're seeing him spend so much time over the weekend in Pennsylvania. He was once referred to as a state's third center. That's clearly an important state for him, and Donald Trump knows that too. I think we're going to see the former president spend a lot of time and energy there. You know, Joe Biden has a lot of work to do in Pennsylvania right now. That's a state that's been a challenge
for Democrats some extent. Joe Biden brought it back for them. I think showing up is going to help to try to alleviate some of these concerns. I mean, Pennsylvania was one of the states where where voters were most likely to have tuned into all the debate, which means they noticed this more than voters and other swing saints may have. And so he's going to have to spend some time there to try to bring back some of these growing concerns among voters there that are showing up, and also
try to push back on Donald Trump. I mean, I think every time I've been on here, I said Joe Biden's case for reelection is going to be to remind voters why they didn't like Donald Trump four years ago, and in this moment where his age has been questioned in its most dramatic way possible, we've seen that. I mean, he called Donald Trump a liar multiple times this morning when he called in the Morning TV, clearly trying to revive a lot of these fears that voters had about Donald Trump.
Well, we write right in our piece here, Eli, this poll could turn out to be a statistical outlier. It does run counter to the national polls that we've seen since the debate, and so that's why it's pretty big news. That's why the campaign is highlighting it. How do you square the difference between what we're seeing in the swing states and nationally.
Well, first of all, we have not seen a lot of numbers since the debate from the swing states. I think this is the first comprehensive look at these seven swing states since the late June debate. What we're seeing in our national tracking that we do every day among thousands of voters. I just got data back today from ten thousand voters. Donald Trump is up by two points. The race was tied before the debate. If we look at that, and we're seeing this is not having a
massive impact on the electrode. A lot of voters already thought he shouldn't be running for president. That's a different discussion than who are you going to vote for? Barack Obama in twenty sixteen at the White House, correspond as Cinner whenever Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump were both highly dislike, had this whole riff that you get to choose between chicken and steak, And that's kind of the choice footers have right now as the race stands today.
I'm curious how people thought about or felt about Donald Trump's performance. I know they think he won the debate. Do we have any other insights into what people saw from Donald Trump, who, of course was recorded by seeing End to have lied thirty times over the course of ninety minutes.
Well, I mean, just as we saw some small declines in the shares of voters who saw Donald Joe Biden is mentally fit or in good health, we saw a bit of an increase in the share who saw Donald Trump as dangerous. And it kind of goes back to what we were talking about in February, is our voter is going to be more concerned about somebody who they think is too old or somebody they think is too dangerous, and right now those seem to be weighing on the minds of a lot of these states, just given how
close these contests are. I mean, one thing to remember is we feel this survey after his conviction in New York and after this Supreme Court immunity ruling, and that is something that I think has really fired up Democrats and concerned independent voters nationally and at the swings. I mean, this is the first time in our swing state survey where we've seen Donald Trump and Joe Biden tied among independent voters. Look voters are complicated people. There's a lot
of things weighing on their minds. And it's not just Joe Biden's age that they're concerned about.
Spending time with Eli Yoakley at Morning Consults, which of course runs our Bloomberg News Swing State pole with us every month, and the double haters are popping off the page to me here, Eli, if there's something Joe Biden really needs to worry about. Large majorities of undecided voters and so called double haters say the president should step aside. That's a number that could haunt him as he continues this public exercise in proving people that he has the mental acuity to do this.
Yeah, for sure, a lot of people think Donald Trump should step aside too. From this contest. I mean, the American people are not happy with the two major party candidates they're facing today. I mean Joe Biden and Donald Trump as of today are equally unpopular or among the electorate. Clearly, the American people are not happy with the choices they have. But we're about to see in Milwaukee next week, probably
in Chicago next month, these two guys elevated. If things say the way they are today, that this is the election voters have, and so those double hairs are going to matter a lot. And that's why I think you're seeing the president, the incumbent president, lean into a lot of these attacks on Donald.
Trump Reality Check in our remaining moment, ELI, debates usually don't decide races, do they.
They do not.
They need to douce states of the Union. I mean, that's where we saw Joe Biden get some of his better numbers when this race is solidified. But this is not a normal year, as we're all see it.
It's not a normal year. And I don't mean to underscore the importance of this debate. I just think it's interesting how we're turning away from history time and again. In this case. We'll see the next one, assuming they make good on the deal on the tenth of September, but we'll have more numbers before then, and we're going to be looking for trends here. Next time, we talked to Eli Oakley. Great to have you back, Eli from Morning Consults in our Bloomberg News Swing State poll. You
can find it again on the terminal and online. Pick through the states. Who've got the graphics and the maps set up for you there to really understand the numbers that we're seeing here in the first comprehensive look at this campaign in terms of swing state voters since the debate. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. Glad you're with us on the Monday edition of Ballots of Power. We'll assemble our panel next only on Bloomberg.
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Lawmakers streaming back into town today. Democrats, namely who have a big meeting tomorrow when they get together the Democratic Conference in the House. They're going to be talking about Joe Biden. Members in the Senate will too. But the House seems to be having its moment because so many members thought they were going to flip the House to Democratic control. Think about what they have seen over the last year, going back to the dismissal of Speaker Kevin McCarthy.
It's not feeling so much like that now, which is why we have roughly ten Democrats, including four seniors in the House, either publicly or privately, calling on Joe Biden to drop out of the presidential race. Of course, all in the wake of his performance in the debate, and it didn't seem like the Friday interview helped a lot either,
since more names emerged over the weekend. In fact, there was a virtual call leadership call last evening in which the four seniors emerged, including Jerry Nadler, to say that it's time for Joe Biden to drop now. This could result in many more. They're going to meet in person tomorrow when they're back, and we are expecting a letter, as Bloomberg has been reporting since last week, to go to the president. The question will be what's the number?
How many Democrats? Joe Biden trying to head them off this morning with a letter of his own saying he's going nowhere and a phone call to MSNBC. If the Friday interview didn't work, how about the Monday interview He called in the morning Joe a phoner Trump style, no camera and talked at length about the campaign, reasserting his intention to stay in it and win and try to knock down some of the conventional wisdom about the Trump campaign,
including its support by black voters. Here's Joe Biden earlier.
I don't have the black support. Come on, give me a break, come with me. Why why I'm getting so frustrated by the lease Now, I'm not talking about you guys, but about the elase in the party who.
They know so much more.
With any of these guys. Don't think I should run against me, announced the president. Challenge me at the convention.
Challenge me at the convention, of course, a month away in Chicago. I kind of funny he had to qualify the elites, not you guys. That didn't mean you two elites. Let's assemble the panel. Chape and Fayse whe us Republican strategist from Actum and great to have Jenay Wartel back with his democratic strategist partner at ARC Initiatives. Jonay, what's your thought on this new strategy to just keep knocking
it down? Joe Biden started to raise his voice in this interview, was a very different posture than he held with George Stephanopolis on Friday. Does that work for you as a Democrat? Do you want to hear him fight for it?
It is, of course really great to see the president being a bit defiant, especially in the face of these increasing calls for him to step aside. I think what we want to see from the President is that he's in it to win it right, that he's going to fight for every vote, that he has the energy and the bigger to defeat Donald Trump. And I think that's what you saw in that phone call, in that interview
this morning. And so I think what's important here is to again look at the president in the days since the debate, how he's performed on the campaign trail, look at how he's engaged with supporters, look at the support that has been coming in for the president, despite there being a handful of members who are saying the contrary. I think it's important to watch him in these last couple of days. Has he demonstrated that he has the energy, that he has the vision to lead America?
And I believe that he does.
Jape, and I know as a Republican you're sitting on the sidelines just letting Joe Biden do his thing. But based on your experience in running campaigns, I wonder what is the more effective posture for him? Is it the collegial self deprecating Joe Biden poking fun. Hey, I don't look forward to anymore. Or is it the guy who raises his voice and reasserts himself as he did on the air this morning. Well, not to be a lawyer, but it depends.
I think you have to strike the balance. Certain events and speeches and audiences require the different personalities that you just mentioned on the trail.
Though, what I've always liked about Joe Biden.
Is that he is a fighter. I think that is the posture of public posture he should be taking. And again, you know, one of the things that this is all about is winning is the only thing that matters. Right If Joe Biden thinks he can win and he does win,
that is the only thing that matters. And which is why you're also seeing this sort of tension in the Democratic Party because everyone was fine with Joe Biden's mental state until it turns out, oh wait, maybe he can lose, and now we're having a big scramble, you know, for the good of the country. Though the last three years when the country was in decline, you know, everyone kept silent, but winning is all that matters. So I do think
that posture is helpful. Though you also have to be able to pull off self deprecating when the circumstances called for it. But I have no problem with you know, I praised his State of the State's speech, not the substance, but the fire in the belly. You know, that's what people are looking for, at least New Yorkers are looking.
For in their Yeah, that's why I ask you, Janay. Let's talk about the elites for a moment. Biden says he he wasn't talking about Joe and Mika's the other elites. How about we named names. Rob Reiner, the movie director Hollywood, has come and calling now a major of course, Democratic supporter, democratic activist, progressive activist tweets it's time to stop effing around. Time for Joe Biden to step down. Netflix co founder
Reid Hastings calling on Joe Biden to step aside. He's given millions i AC chair Barry Diller says he and his wife, Diane von Furstenberg were no longer supporting Joe Biden as the nominee. How does he answer these names? You can write them off as elites, but these are the donors.
Well, again, we are a political party, in the Democratic Party. We're not A. Foulton, So we welcome the freedom of ideas. Folks, whether they're supporters at the highest level or grassroots volunteers, are welcome to have opinions. I think that what's important here is that the majority of Democrats, and many top Democrats, especially Democrats in these battleground states that President Biden needs
to win again, are supporting him. When we look at these these polls and these key battleground states that were mentioned earlier, these polls are tight, and I think it's no coincidence that so many of the Democrats in those key states have come out in full thrown support of President Biden's reelection campaign. So I think what you have to focus on is are we reaching and engaging the folks who are ultimately going to be the votes that
we need to win in November. And so I think that from a strategic standpoint, that is what the campaign is continuing to do and continuing to focus on and not focusing exclusively on the donor class, because that is a handful of opinions, though very well financed opinions.
Opinions Nonetheless, sure Japin.
We spoke earlier with Elioakley at Morning consult this hour. Our part or is in the Bloomberg New Swing State Pole, which brought some fascinating and counterintuitive numbers when released over the weekend. This is Joe Biden's best showing in this poll that's gone back to October here with a monthly check in from Bloomberg in Morning Consult He's losing to Donald Trump by only two points forty seven forty five. And it's swing states here. So interestingly, Biden's beating Trump
in Michigan and Wisconsin. He's trailing Trump in Pennsylvania. But I wonder, when you look at this poll and you consider the public discourse that's going on right now, kind of the laughing that we're hearing from Republicans, does the GOP risk becoming too complacent at this moment in the race?
That is always a risk in every campaign. I have to warn candidates all the time about becoming complacent. And if we have thought of being you know, we have thought of a tactic, the other side has always thought of it, as you know, you have to assume they can think of it too and not get over confident. But yeah, you know, I think again on the on the Republican side, there's also a balancing act of when to sit back and let your opponents do it out themselves,
and when to step in. I think you saw immediately after, on a few days after the debate performance, you saw Trump sort of putting out just enough statements to keep his base, you know, paying attention to it, but didn't really you know, didn't really go for the juggular, so to speak, as he has in the past about opponents. So I think you're seeing them sort of play that balancing act as well.
How would you manage them the timing this week, Chapin, We've got a Republican National Convention starting Monday, Joe Biden's NATO news conference going to be Thursday. When do you drop the news on a vice presidential candidate if you're Donald Trump.
Well, probably having a conversation right now within the campaign about whether that's the day.
Of the NATO thing, the day after, right during or when.
I think, you know, it's a it's ripe opportunity to steal the news cycle, at least for domestic the domestic news here in America. So I do think that that is the perfect timing to announce it in the lead up to the convention, though the flip side of that coin is they may want to manage it a little bit better than that and.
You know, have a big show on a surprise. Though.
I do think getting the most out of it, uh, you know it gives your opponent is the best tactic or the best strategy.
So I do think right around, you know whatever.
The biggest inflection point during that time, during the NATO summit is would be when the you know, when the when the leak would happen or when the announcement would happen.
Just to take the news back. Donald Trump is a master at.
That, no doubt, and you do wonder if it's going to come via a leak. That was great Chape and Faye Jane Wartel, great panel, and many thanks to you both for the insights.
Here.
I will point out two events. One tomorrow in Miami, I think Marco Rubio. We're supposedly down to two according to the Washington Post. And then the other Saturday Butler Pennsylvania. We'll be watching these very closely for potential vice presidential candidate announcements or leaks from the Trump campaign.
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Back to work indeed here on the fastest show in Politics, Live from Washington on Bloomberg TV and Radio. As we track Hurricane Beryl making landfall in Texas earlier today as a Category one. It has since been downgraded to a tropical storm, but there are two million customers without power along the Gulf Coast of Texas and questions about what this means for our energy infrastructure. In a conversation, we were a planning to focus on summer gas and oil prices.
It's taken on a bit of a different wrinkle, but that's all part of summer. Just ask Bob McNally, the president of Rapidant Energy Group, is with us right now.
Bob.
We're looking at the price for crude oil, Texas crude lower today, the majors Exxon, Chevron lower. This is a non event for the energy market, Hi Joe.
So far, thankfully it is, and we first and foremost think of our friends in Texas and those folks without power. But so far it looks like the worst case and the worst case would be a prolonged outage of those on shore, those refining centers and gas processing centers. That would be really bad. And so far we seem to be skin missing that bullet, duck in that bullet right now.
So what's the summer look like? With eighty two dollars a barrel roughly for WTI, it's down one percent actually today the active futures contract, the White House touting gas prices and pointing to this decision to release a million barrels of gasoline from the Northeast Reserve, despite the fact that we didn't have a shock to the system, there was no emergency, and so we're talking about this against
the backdrop of politics. Shocker, Bob. What do oil and gas prices look like for the duration of this summer?
You know, the market's pretty stable, Joe. I mean, gasoline prices will more or less follow crude oil prices, and the crude oil market is probably.
Balanced around where it is right now.
We think we're transitioning from a soggy over supplied global market in the first half of this year to a little bit of a firmer one. Right, China is going to have some stimulus, we think later this summer. If we don't have a macro accident here, demand'll pick up, inventories will get a little leaner, so we're probably balanced. But Joe, the oil market, I mean traders are tiptoeing through a minefield of risk, black Swan risk and geopolitics, and a disruption could send oil price is crude and
gaslink sharply higher. And our main concern there would be in the Middle East in the battle between Israel and its enemies on its border, not just Gaza, but Hesbola and Iran and then to some degree Russia. And the downside risk is macroeconomic conditions and the fragile economy generally, so a lot of risk. But if we avoid black swans, were probably stable. As for the spr thing, I mean, selling off the Northeast Preserve was a kind of a joke for oil supply. That's about a morning's worth of
gasoline demand up in the Northeast. They were going to get rid of that thing anyway, so that was really a nothing burder.
Well, it's kind of surprising when we're at three fifty, right, Triple a's got it said, a national average three fifty a gallon, we were at three fifty three a year ago. Seems like kind of a non factor for the Biden administration right now, unless maybe you're right, if we're looking at the potential for a black swan, would Israel engaging Hesbela on a real war fulfill that definition.
I think it would because unlike Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah is a strategic arm of Iran, and we don't think Iran would open up against the United States and its allies in the Gulf full Bore, but they would likely harass ships and threaten US with a supply loss and a price increase during an election year were Israel to invade Lebanon go after Hesbola. So it's a risk. The
market's been pretty skeptical about that so far. One reason we're a little lower today in oil prices is there's more news of a potential ceasefire between Israel and Humas, which could also then lead to a ceasefire with Hesbella. So geopolitics are in the market, but in a soft way, I'd say.
Right now, yep, fascinating. Bob McNally is the president of Rapid and Energy Group with us live on Bloomberg TV and Radio. And I want to point you, Bob to the new Republican Party platform that was released today ahead of next week's Republican National Convention. There's a lot of stuff on here about the border, about inflation. I'm not going to pull you into any of that. But number four on this list of bullets here make America the dominant energy producer in the world by far, it says
exclamation point. And I'm wondering how we're defining this now, because we already know, when we've established here, that the US is pumping more oil right now than it ever has. And as you look at the numbers here in terms of production and consumption, we're far and away the leader. How would you fulfill that then, or how would you define being the dominant energy producer in the world. Aren't we already?
You know we are for oil and gas, we are top in the world now. If you define it to include electricity, then we rival China sometimes they're a little ahead of us. But if we talk about primary energy production energy you know, flowing from the ground or produce in a primary sense, the United States is number one I think perhaps, you know, keep us the number one dominant energy superpower is probably a little more accurate than then.
Get us there.
But you know, Joe stepping back, I think the left tends to overstate how much policy drives demand. Like the left thinks we're going to have peak demand by twenty thirty, and then the right perhaps thinks that policy has a bigger impact on supply than it does. I think there's a little bit of a wishful thinking and overstatement on both sides. The end of the day, outcomes, even our
dominant energy position is not due mainly to policy. It's due to structural factors, the macroeconomy, the industry itself, innovators, producers of energy, the industry reacting to signals, to investment, and so forth. Those are the factors that drive outcomes, not policy. Final thing just on this, perhaps the one thing on policy is it can do harm. It can
do harm, especially on trade. If you look at the last big success we had as a country bipartisan energy success, it was when President Obama, working with Republicans in Congress, got rid of the crude oil Export Band twenty fourteen twenty fifteen. We needed that to save the sha away industry just the same way going forward, a return to export restrictions that could hurt productions. So policy can do harm, but it's otherwise hard to improve on a good thing we already have going here.
This is really important as we try to figure out what a Trump two point zero would mean for the energy markets versus what we've seen from Joe Biden's first term. Bob, you got off easy. I didn't even ask you what you thought of the debate.
Wow, you know what.
I was at band practice.
I was doing rock and roll. I didn't even watch the debate, and I'm in a way glad I didn't.
But I'll tell you what.
We upped our chances for our clients and President Trump winning after that debate.
So we're all in.
It's a sensitive situation right now. I will say, if Kamala Harris steps forward, Joe, she has promised to ban fracking. Now she walked that back when she joined the Biden ticket. But if Kamala Harris moves forward, I think you and I are going to be talking in a few weeks about whether the whether the next president might try and ban fracking indirectly or directly.
You didn't even have to watch it. Bob McNally, President Rapidan Energy, it's great to see you, Bob. Thank you for being with us. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.