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Eighteen sixty four, as we step into the wayback machine, a law from the Civil War that criminalized nearly all abortions in Arizona can now take effect according to Arizona's Supreme Court. This is a ruling that could have massive
implications in the presidential campaign. I know it's just Arizona, but that's one of the swing states that we are looking at that could well decide the next president of the United States, and so we wanted to talk about it with Samara Klarr on the ground in Arizona has been hearing about it for the last twenty four hours in person here, political science professor at the University of Arizona, co author of the book Independent Politics, How American disdain
for parties leads to political inactions. Samora, it's great to have you back. Did Joe Biden just win Arizona?
Well, you know.
It's interesting to see Republican candidates here in Arizona over the last twenty four hours really almost clamoring to express the strongest possible outrage they can, which is a bit of a shift from what we've been seeing over the last ten years or so. Both Republicans and Democrats in Arizona are seeing the polling and they see what I see when I pull Arizona's which is that there's really very very weak support for a ban like the one
that went into place yesterday. In fact, I pulled eight hundred registered voters just a couple of weeks ago, and only seven percent of Arizona voters support the type of ban that was ruled yesterday. Seven percent. So that's not good news. Re candidate here in Arizona is really doing what they can to distance themselves from this ruling.
No better symbol than the evolution of Carrie Lake, of course, running for Senate in Arizona, who at one time embraced this Civil War era law, said that this was a good thing, and has been certainly backing away from it in the last twenty four hours. Doesn't that tell us everything we need to know?
Oh?
Yeah, I mean, there's really been no more dramatic pivot than what we're seeing am on Carrie Lake, and it's been in the works for a little while. I remember noticing just several months ago that she was really starting to change her rhetoric from this strong pro life position to now saying sort of what we're hearing Donald Trump say now, which is that it should be left to people to decide, and you know, meet's up to the states,
aft to the voters. So you know, Democrats have had abortion as kind of a winning issue for them, honestly,
really ever since Dabbs. It's really helped out Democrats in states like Arizona, and the Republicans now are just kind of trying to do some damage control and trying to figure out how they can sort of balance between maintaining this pro life position that many of them have put forward for years now, but also understanding that the vast majority, especially in a state like Arizona, voters do not support an abortion ban.
Two years ago, Carrie Lake called this a great law, that's a direct quote, calling it a model for other states to follow. Another quote, yesterday, she condemned it, calling for an immediate, common sense solution that Arizonas can support. David Schweikert, Republican Congressman from Arizona, this issue should be decided by Arizona's not legislated from the bench. I encouraged the state legislature to address this issue immediately. Is this how Republicans will run on this in Arizona?
I think that at this point, unless they do a full pivot and you know, become pro choice, which who knows, I mean, anything could happen in the way things are going, but at this point I think that's their best bet. I mean, the polling that I did last week shows forty percent of Arizona voters forty percent, which was higher than I expected, said that they think abortion should always be left to a woman and her doctor to decide. Twenty five percent support a ban with exceptions, so exceptions
for rape, for incess, for threats to mother's life. The ruling yesterday put into place a law that has no exceptions. So the ruling as of yesterday would put into place an abortion ban without any exceptions for rape forrincess. So
this is a deeply unpopular law. As I mentioned, you know, seven percent of Arizona's say they support this kind of a loss seven percent, so Yeah, Republican candidates are trying to figure out how they can distance themselves from it without completely going back, although as you just mentioned, we're already seeing a lot of backtracking.
That's remarkable.
This is a Samara's poll of eight hundred registered voters in Arizona. If you didn't quite just hear that, seven percent single digits support a ban with no exceptions, twenty five percent with exception, sixty six supporting abortion at various points in a pregnancy. Will the state legislature act then based on numbers like these?
Oh, I think already, you know, they're already trying to figure out how they're going to move forward. The ban is not currently in effect. There's I think a two week period where it's now being sent to a different court, and then they're going to have several weeks to figure out, you know, what exactly their plan is going to be going forward. But I think there's a very very low chance that this band will stay in place in Arizona. It has no support among the public, it has no
support among the politicians. It doesn't seem like this is going.
To last long.
Pretty remarkable timing. Just a day after Donald Trump issued his statement on abortion, saying that it's up to the states. So all the states have spoken, haven't they.
I mean, I think this is really going to be a huge issue for Democrats, of course in Arizona and elsewhere. Another thing I'd point out from that pull that I recently did is that those who support abortion rights also say that it's much more important to them when it comes to their vote choice relative to those who are pose abortion. So pro choice voters are more likely to make that a centerpiece of their voting decision. Pro life voters are more likely to actually vote on something else.
So there's a far greater risk of losing the pro choice voters than there are losing the pro life voters.
We're going to talk about this more over the course of our hour. Really great to have you back, Samara Klar from the University of Arizona. Great conversation, great insights, and thank you tomorrow for sharing your research with us.
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Pretty fascinating. Here is Joe Biden makes news in an interview on Univision about apparently what will be an executive action that he's preparing to take. Remembering that this border deal never got past the Senate that was struck earlier, it was tied to funding for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. In this case, he is eyeing a restriction on the definition of asylum, and this brings us back to that
very debate. A tightened criteria for asylum he would use authority, according to Univision and what he said in this interview in section two twelve of the Immigration and Nationality Act. Here's a little piece of his interview that aired last evening on Univision.
Well, it suggests that that we're examining whether or not I have that power. There's no guarantee that I have that power all by myself without legislation, and some suggests that I should just go ahead and try it and if I get shut down by the court, and get shut down by the court, but we're trying to work through that right.
Now, so.
Maybe it'll work. Let's assemble our panel for their take. Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano or together today Bloomberg Politics contributors are signature panel. Jeanie, what do you think about this most recent swing at an issue that will not leave Joe Biden alone?
Yeah, you know, this was something the President raised when he was an eagle pass. I think it was about a month ago. He said, you know, we need to act, and we understand there has been a fierce debate in the White House over whether in fact this is legal constitutional, but very much as you described, he's going to do what you know, essentially use the same portion of the bill that we saw Donald Trump use to try to
take this executive action. And he really does need to act on this issue because we are talking about an issue where he is losing support among Latinos in the polls where we are seeing this is the number one issue on the minds of many voters, and not just on the southern border states. Of course, Donald Trump has been using these issues, so he needs to address this. He's going to try to act this way, but again,
it is not the comprehensive policy we need. It is what we've seen for the last several years quite frankly, and he will try it, but it probably won't be effective.
I don't know if this will require a congressional approval or if members of Congress, Well, what of who am I kidding?
Rick?
The pushback from Republicans in the House will be fierce, won't it.
Yeah, the pushback will be fierce. They want hr to the flagship border bill that they created over a year ago that's gone absolutely nowhere, a talking point that's about as dead as the bill itself. But the reality is this is sort of an ongoing talking point coming out of the White House that they established with the Senate
Bill on Security as Systems. This was part of this idea that they could empower the president if a number of border cross he's got over five thousand a day, that that would give him the ability, you know, laterally then to shut the border. So I think this is kind of you know, Senate border bill too, which is okay, maybe I don't need congressional approval to do that. Maybe I just try and do it myself. Get pretty canny
on the part of the White House. They are looking at this going okay, he can look tough on the border. I would bet that it has a threshold issue involved like five thousand people crossing the border in one day, and my guess is that he would welcome a court challenge. One they've always been skittish about controlling the border, and two, you know, that would give him an argument that says, hey, we're trying to do this and these crazy you know,
Trump courts are keeping us from doing it. And we couldn't get the build through Congress because Republicans bailed on their own idea. So I actually think it's a good way to deal with the border issue. He's never going to win on it, but he just needs to look like he's trying the best he can to not let the border me completely free.
So that's the point here, Jennie. It's messaging you don't necessarily have to create a new policy when you're running for reelection here, just be caught in the act trying.
Yeah, and what Rick says is absolutely right politically, and you're absolutely right, Joe. The problem is this does nothing to address the key issues, and that has always been the problem. So there is very little sunlight between Joe Biden and Donald Trump in these EO attempts. They either fail in court or they minimally address the issue, and we can't. We don't. We have a Congress that's not acting, and so yes, it is a lot of theater. If you will, it may help around the edges, but it's
not going to solve the issue. And let's not forget we had the highest number of border crossings in December of last year. That's just a few months ago. So you know that is I think the troubling part of this. We need comprehensive reform, we are not going to get it, and so they are choosing in this campaign year to do what candidates do.
Rick, We're about to hear from Joe Biden and the Prime Minister of Japan a bilateral news conference in the Rose Garden, and you know how this stuff goes. The White House would love for us to ask a lot of questions about investing in Japan and strengthening our military alliance, but it's going to be just like this that come up, right, what's the job for Joe Biden when he goes to Q and A with reporters today?
Yeah, I mean a job for Joe Biden is not to do what he always does, which is wax on, you know, not so poetically about issues that aren't there for the day, that may be driven by special interests that are sitting in there, sometimes referred to as the press, and so like this, it's just so hard for him. He loves to talk about these issues of domestic interest,
and yet today really is an incredibly important day. The Prime Minister's visit harkins a new relationship defence y with Japan puts them from a passivist nation into one that will protect their self interest in not only their own waters, but territorial waters, which means code for the South China Sea.
And so this is kind of a page turner. We haven't had much conversation about this part of the world lately, and I think it's an opportunity for the Biden administration to show what kind of deterrence they're trying to put up against Chinese aggression. And part of it is these bilateral and multilateral relationships that have been developed as part of the deterrence effect against China.
Is this a high risk situation for Joe Biden meeting the press today, Genie, what's your take?
It should not be. I mean, there is nothing that has bipartisan support more than confronting China, and that's what this visit is all about, or it should be about. You know, there are some potential areas where he can stumble or know they can ask him things that that may cause him to veer off. But you would think this would be a you know, home run, so to speak, because there is bipartisan support for doing what we're doing. And you know, I suspect Hill will get some questions
on his intervention in US steel. You know, obviously they're going to talk about inflation, as you mentioned, all kinds of things, but on this particular visit, it should be widespread support. The Prime Minister is supposed to be speaking
before Congress this week. This is an important relationship for the United States and the Biden administration's efforts to as Rick was talking about, confront China, So you don't think there would be any room to sort of get off off focus, but you never know that you press, even the Premary.
Well, i'll tell you what we're going to experience this together as always with Rick and Genie. They're going to be back with us next hour or second hour of balance of power, and I suspect that the President will join us via the Rose Gardener that time as well. This was scheduled for twelve thirty, a little more than twenty minutes ago, and when he speaks, along with the Japanese Prime Minister, will bring you his remarks. With that in mind, I wanted to bring Nick Watams into the conversation.
Of course, runs our national security coverage here in Washington, because this is a military alliance that we're talking about here. I know he's going to get questions on abortion and the border, but assuming those reporters are called on, but this is about strengthening our military ties with Japan investing in our military. In fact, the order as we saw yesterday, or the call to create a Council on Defense Industries, all with China in mind. Nick is with us at
the table here. It's good to see you, sir. This is pretty significant when you think of US collaborating on military projects, Japanese workers on US ships import overseas. How much time went into this, How significant is it?
Well, you know it's there's the big question we always have on these summits is how much of it is really about signaling in the alliance and how much of it is we actually are going to see some real concrete action here, and it looks from this one like there's going to be some action. The two sides are really are deepening ties, but and they're taking concrete steps to mesh their militaries closer together, which is interesting for
Japan because you know the defense spending for Japan. Historically they have not put a huge amount of money in the military, but there's been this change because of the rise of China and its own military expansion, So that's quite interesting. But I think you really need to see this summit much more as a signal to China. So it's not so much about the individual things that these two countries are going to be doing, but that they are presenting a united front against what they see as
their chief rival. So it'll be much more about about the signaling effort to sort of show that also with the Philippines. There's a trilateral some with the Philippines coming up the next day. It'll be a big part of that.
This is slowly becoming the NATO of the Pacific, as Admiral Stavritas called for.
I don't know if we're quite there yet, but is.
That a real conversation though, I am.
Yes, But certainly nothing as formal as NATO. I mean that has been essentially the most successful and biggest defense and security alliance of the post Cold War world. I think it would be very difficult. There's a little bit too much fractiousness in Asia for countries to be able to do that. I mean, another interesting element here is how much of this summit is the Biden administration also trying to spread the love among its allies. It wasn't too long ago that the US had a summit in
Washington with South Korea. Now they have their summit with the Japanese leader as well, So it's you sort of see this alliance management through the distribution and awarding of summits to various allied countries. So this is a very big deal for Japan. I think our sense is that for the US, it's really about sending a signal more than actually trying to achieve something company the.
Real For Japan, first time in almost a decade for a Japanese leader to be at the White.
House like this, we get the full roll out the state dinner.
Not every world leader gets a reception like this, so there's clearly a deliberate messaging going on.
Well, and the other thing that's fascinating about it is that, you know, if you look at the Trump administration, they really heralded his alliance, his close friendship with Japan, as a key foreign policy success for him. So there was some unease by the Japanese when President Biden came in if he would maintain what was essentially what President Trump had as the premier alliance of his presidency. Of course,
got an election coming up. President Biden also wants to send a signal to Japan that hey, you guys did really well under Trump. You've had a great time, but I've got your back as well. So there's a domestic element here as well that's fascinating.
Just quickly, in our last moment, they're going to be talks about how Japan can help support the Aucust alliance as well as what is it a second pillar as they call it, that's sort of an adjacent relationship. Could they eventually become part of it.
Well, Australia is pushing back really hard on that idea, but what they have said is that they do want to fold Japan into the sort of technological element of August. So there's the whole subs deal that Australia is going to get these subs. But then there's this whole other part where they're talking about advanced technologies, and that's obviously a place where they want a pen to play a role.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play and then Proud Ato with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
We want to turn now to one of our favorites here on Bloomberg Television and Radio. The former Congressman from Virginia, Ver Rigelman, is joining us once again. Congressman, it's great to have you here as we're talking about geopolitics very much in focus with this visit between Biden and the Prime Minister of Japan and countering China in that specific theater. We know that geopolitics are at play in congressional behavior as well, including this issue of aid for Ukraine and
whatever could come as a consequence. We've heard from members of Congress today that Ukraine aid could go to the floor next week for a vote. So then will it be what the next day that there could be a move from Marjorie Taylor Green to oust how speaker Mike Johnson, What do you think is going to go down here?
You know what happens with the irrational?
You know, good to be here.
By the way, I was thinking about, I guess there's a meeting right now between Marjorie Taylor Green and Mike Johnson. And when you're talking about serious discussions on foreign policy, I think many of us, you know, including me and many have been warning that the unserious shouldn't be making policy discuss decisions. And right now you have somebody who compared himself to Moses talking to somebody who misspelled Marshall law when she called for it in the Mark Meadows text.
I don't know how serious those discussions are. So when you see Marjorie Taylor Green actually coming up and saying, hey, we're going to put a motion to vacate on the floor, I really can't imagine, even with the insanity that's going on on the GOP caucus right now, I can imagine that a majority or even a large minority will back Marjorie Taylor Green and calling for Mike Johnson's ouster at
this time. I just don't think that's going to happen. However, it's very hard to predict insanity, and I think when you're looking at Congress right now, I think that's the issue that you have, is that it's so unpredictable and so unserious. That's something like that Mike gain traction. But again, I'm hoping that we still have enough serious legislators in there where something like that wouldn't happen at this time.
Hey, Denver, great to have you back. I bet you can predict the reaction to Joe Biden's apparent looming executive order on the border. You talked to Univision last night and said that he's going to do this and start to squeeze the definition of asylum, lower the number of people who are crossing the border. This, of course, is something that's come up multiple times and in different forms, including an actual compromise piece of legislation that was kicked back.
What's Mike Johnson going to say to this, You.
Know, Mike Johnson is actually going to take a victory lab you know, if you look at it completely politically, he's going to say, listen, our warnings about the border are proved fruitful, and we finally have a President who's acting way too late on the border. That's what they're going to message, and they're going to roll that message throughout the entire GOP conference. You know, President Biden's going
to say, listen, we've seen the data. There is an issue at the border, and we feel that we have to do this at a time because Congress isn't they're unable to act. Think about These are going to be the competing political visions that you have there, and that's how each will message. One will message that we were right all along. The other will message that Congress is so ridiculous that they have to do something. And if you look at it really empirically, there is a problem
at the border. We know that that's there. I've been doing national security for twenty years. I've actually done border ops back in the day, things I really can't talk about as much based on intel in surveillance and reconnaissance back in twenty ten and twenty eleven. So you know, so again, there is definitely a problem there. There are
issues there, but both will try to claim victory. One that they've been right all along and the other that Congress might have been right but they just can't act on it because they're so misaligned and so chaotic. So I think that's what that's the messaging that's going to come from both camps after this happens.
Well, Denver, you mentioned your intelligence background, it's worth noting that it's not just the border that former President Trump has weighed in on in terms of potential congressional action. Today, he weighed in on the FISA reauthorization specifically, of course section seven oh two, which is the warrantless surveillance program. There's been some concern about the privacy of Americans who may get caught up in some of that intelligence gathering activity.
Trump posted on True Social kill FISA it was illegally used against me and many others. They spied on my campaign. You have a number of House Republicans now, Matt Gates, Anapauline A Luna, Tim Burchett saying they will vote no on the rule, the procedural vote to try to get this thing across. Is this once again Trump wielding his power in the House. Is FISA potentially not going to be renewed before that April nineteenth deadline.
It's a great question, and yes, it is him wielding his power to the House. So look at the people you just mentioned that are voting against it. It's not a surprise. I think it's saying people that want to do the UFO committee, So that doesn't surprise me very much. And you know, when you're looking at FAISA also, FISA is incredibly important the United States security. Anybody who's dealt in the FISA world like I have when I worked at the National Security Agency, actually should be trying to
support FIES in many levels. Of course, we don't want to trample on Americans' rights. We want to make sure that's properly regulated. We want to make sure that the authorizations are correct. We want to make sure that there's transparency to actually the committees that that oversee the PISA process. We want to make sure the intelligence communities are transparent when they're asked for budgeting. Of course, you want to
do all that, but FISA is very important. What you have as a president, you know, he's screaming into a popcorn box and you've got people that are actually listening to them. And that's the issue that you have, is that instead of thinking about the actual nuances of policy protecting American citizens in America based on the ability to use FISA for arism or financial activities that support terrorism
or criminal activity from foreign sources. We have people that literally believe that aliens are in the Bible talking about voting against FIZA based on President Trump putting out a declaration about FAIZA because actually he's in trouble with the law so much so I hope everybody got that cascading effect. That's how I like to actually do it. But again, there's an unseiousness in Congress. I think that all of us in America need to address and point out when this happens.
I'm spending time with former Republican Congressman Denver Riggleman, the gentleman from Virginia with us as we wait to hear from Joe Biden. We've been showing you pictures of a ever more busy Rose Garden where he's going to be speaking with the Japanese Prime Minister.
Denver.
We spoke with Sarah Chamberlin yesterday here on Balance of Power, the head of the Republican Main Street Partnership. This is somebody talking every day with Centrists, and when the matter of Ukraine funding came up, she said something we hadn't heard before. We keep hearing it's going to be weeks, maybe months. I want you to listen to what Sarah said about the potential for an imminent vote on Ukraine and we'll have you respond here.
She is it's going to pass either this week of very early next.
Week without quest Wow.
Yeah, we haven't seen the text yet.
It's going to pass.
They really want to get this moving and get this done, and they want to help Ukraine.
Well to Kaylee's point, we haven't even seen the text yet, Denver. Do you actually think that this Republican Ledhouse could surprise us on Ukraine.
I think it's possible. You know, there's always a difference between the possible and the probable, and it's easy to make statements if you're not in Congress like that. But I will tell you this, they sort of have to get the Ukraine Aid moving. And I think what you're seeing right now in Russia, what you're seeing in Ukraine, if you're a serious legislator, we have to support Ukraine.
It is one hundred percent down the line that anybody that sees Russian history and what's happening in Russia today should support Ukraine Aid immediately. And I just want to state that, and that's how I would vote. However, you never know, you got people voting on the rule. Have we had mar Lago and Donald Trump actually way in yet, like you did on Faiza. All these things we have to look at. And you know, those are the type
of issues you have to look at. Again, you can only predict the future after it happens when you're in Congress to saying that, I learned an intelligence training. Also, you know, it's very hard to predict the future. I would think that they should have a bill on the floor for Ukraine AID this week. I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't, but I do think I think it's fifty one forty nine that they do.
That would be news.
Indeed it would. And Congressman is we're still waiting here the press conference between Biden and Kashida as we're talking about US alliances, especially given what we are seeing in the current behavior of the US Congress for when it comes to many allies, including Israel and Ukraine. Of course, as we've been discussing, when the President says something and I'm making up words here, but I would imagine a lot of this conversation has gone Japan. We stand with you.
Our alliance is strong, we would like to make it stronger. Is Congress making that our dogument have less credibility right now? Is the US credible when it says such things?
You know, it's really hard. I think allies were probably looking for stability, and I would hope that Congress exudes that over the next week or two, which is still, again I think, very difficult. But I would say this is that stupid suggests instability, so does unseriousness, and I believe that's what a lot of Allies are saying. When you see Mike Johnson, you know, him actually having to
negotiate with the Marjorie Taylor Green. I do think that foreign governments in the executive in their legislative branch, as we're looking at this like America has certainly gone crazy at this point, and they're hoping for some sobriety and stability at the executive branch to balance out what's happening
in the legislative branch. So I think that's what you're going to see today is Biden trying to reassure Japan that the chaos that they're seeing the legislative branch is not going to somehow cascade into our support of Japan, especially when you're looking at China, you're looking at the South China Sea, and also really the future of US helping Japan grow their military capability beyond where they are today.
I think a lot of that is very important. But again, I think you're going to see in the Rose Garden today President Pride trying to reassure Japan and the Japanese people that America can overcome the chast that we're seeing the legislative branch right now.
Denver, it's great to have you back, Denver Riggleman, former congressman from Virginia. Great to see you and good to have you back with us today. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.