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As we turn our attention to another major story, as we learned late yesterday that the senator from Connecticut, the former Senator Joe Lieberman, had died. We actually spoke with Joe Lieberman right here on Bloomberg Cayley and I did about six days ago on Balance of Power.
This is an eighty two year old man.
Of course, we've talked a lot about age in politics, most recently, but this was a man who truly was working up until his last breath as co chair of the group No Labels, which has been desperately searching for a candidate.
As he told us just last week here, heus.
We're still in pursuit of a couple of really good candidates, and we got to make the decision next two or three weeks. And when we do, hopefully we'll excite people and they'll say, you know what, this is her choice.
I wanted.
The senator who went from a long time pillar of the Democratic Party to an independent and of course ran as the vice presidential nominee alongside al Gore in two thousand has left us.
He was eighty two.
And we now bring in the Governor of Connecticut, Ned Lamont, who knew him awfully well. Governor, I appreciate your spending some time with us here. This is a politician who left your party. How do you want people to remember him?
I think I liberated Senator Lieberman.
We had a pretty frisky primary going back about sixteen years ago, and he ended up running as an independent, winning and we shook hands. It was a debate about the war in Iraq, but you have a debate about the big issue of the day, then the people decide. And we've been close ever since. And we're going to have a memorial service for Senator Lebram tomorrow. There's going to be a grid out pouring of support. Look, he was old school, right. He had relationships on both sides
of the aisle, and you know, had strong convictions. You know, some fit neatly within the Democratic Party, some less.
So he was his own man. That's how will be known. He was his own man.
You beat him in that primary.
Of course, did he do the right thing by moving on to run as an independent.
He had the right to run as an independent. He said he might run as an independent even during that primary. So look, that was then, now's now. We shook hands at the end of that race. I saw him just a couple of months ago at the Alfalfa dinner. We talked about the war in Iraq where we disagreed. We talked about giving the Ukrainians the aid they need to support themselves, a place where we did agree.
It was the Iraq war aforementioned that seemed to either pull him away from the Democratic Party or I think he would characterize it as a party that was leaving him. He will be remembered for his foreign policy acumen. What did he bring to the Senate and of the country in that regard.
Well, I'll tell you, first of all, the decision to invade Iraq back in two thousand and three was quite bipartisan. I was a little more of the outlier by saying I think it's the wrong decision to make. But more importantly, remember Majoe b. Leeb meant for the state of Connecticut. He served us going back as a state senator in nineteen seventy and for decades he was there fighting on behalf of the people of the state. A whole variety
of issues that he cared deeply about. The environment. He was such a leader there LGBTQ issues, back before they were less mainstream. He had the courage to stand up and make a difference there as well. Obviously was strong the defender of our defense system. We have some contractors here in the state, and he fought hard to make sure our navy base and submarines has stayed here in Connecticut.
Well, that's a lot.
He also continued to stay active in politics following his retirement as a lawmaker, and I've been awfully compelled by his journey with this group no Labels. We just played a snippet of our conversation with him from just last week. A lot of people have been criticizing him, a lot of Democrats for trying to spoil this race. When we spoke with him, he seemed to genuinely think that he was doing something in the name of democracy.
What do you think.
I think you can be independent minded and a man of your own convictions within the Democratic Party or within the Republican Party. I think it's a little confusing to bring in a lot of outside parties. I think that's probably not that helpful. I'm not sure I agreed on that. He certainly was some he was able to maintain his strong independence and stay true to himself within the Democratic Party for so many years.
Well, he's obviously the end of an era for a lot of folks in Connecticut, but also here in Washington. Governor, I wonder if you can speak to the different era that we are in now, because we're seeing an important generational turnover that a lot of people are calling for.
On the presidential level.
May not have happened yet, but it's certainly been happening on the legislative level. What is that era that Joe Lieberman represented.
I think it was more collegial.
That's when people spend a lot more time together on both sides of the aisle. They eight meals together, they traveled together on a lot of these missions. That's where Joe became quite close with Senator John McCain and Lindsey Graham, the three amigos. Those relationships were powerful. I find today the relationships are less there. It's more ideological that's an eir I miss.
I've got to ask you governors to stay between us if you want. Should John McCain have run with Joe Lieberman? This has been debated up and down. We all know how that race ended. He wanted his friend to run with him, and at the time it seemed outrageous the idea, just like it would now have a Republican tapping a former Democrat.
What do you think about it?
I think in hindsight, John McCain would have been much better off with Joe Lieberman as a running tape.
Would you have supported that ticket? You wouldn't be allowed to do that as a Democrat, right, not a.
Question of allowed to do it. I wouldn't have supported it. Remember, I came.
Into this game thinking that, you know, George Bush's an invasion of Iraq was a terrible thing, not just for that country but for peace and Middle East.
So I was not going to be supporting that ticket. But I think it would have been a stronger ticket.
That's fascinating.
We can have this conversation now with Governor Ned Lamont of Connecticut, and I really appreciate your candor on this.
Governor, when's the last time you talked to Joe Lieberman.
You know, we got together at the Alfalfa Dinner Dana Washington, d C. A few months ago and had a chance to catch up briefly, and we promised.
We were going to get together soon. Unfortunately it's a his memorial service tomorrow.
Well, we were all struck by his demeanor and the passion that he was still showing to the cause when we spoke with him just last week. This is, of course, due to complications from a fall. He was still looking pretty good and still had his wits about him, didn't he.
I love it.
I mean, I'm a guy who just turned seventy, so I love to see these folks, you know, playing it up at the top of their game.
Here he was at eighty two, still making a difference. I say, go for it.
It's not every day we spend time with the Governor of Connecticut, and I have to ask you a couple of things while you're with us in our remaining a couple of minutes here, Governor Lamont. This general election campaign that we've referred to by way of no labels is well underway now. Joe Biden's going to be in New York tonight with Barack Obama and Bill Clinton. I presume that you're supporting this ticket. What's your read on the race from your perch in Connecticut?
My read is that America usually does the right thing after exhausting all the other options, and I think the right thing is going to be Joe Biden. I think people know them, I think people trust them. I think, especially in this very topsy turvy world, for our allies need to know there's America that they can count upon as the indispensable nation.
It'll be a president Joe Biden.
Does Bill Clinton help the party at this point? I've been describing this as the Mount Rushmore of democratic politics. But of course Barack Obama brings a lot to Joe Biden. Their relationship was important, and there are a lot of progressive Democrats who think Bill Clinton carries too much baggage to be helpful. Maybe it's a fundraising story. Is that something you've considered.
Look, I think the three of them standing arm in arm together, I think they represent the best traditions of America. The Republican Party's pretty fractured right now. You're not going to see that story with former President Trump. I think it's important. You know, I know what Joe Biden stands for. He was vice president of Barack Obama, and Bill Clinton is part of that trio. I think it's important. It tells the story of the consistency of American values.
They say, all news is local, governor, and I'm a Putnam, Connecticut boy, but I've got to ask you about this new congestion tax in New York. That's a lot of your taxpayers, a lot of people who live in Connecticut who are potentially going to be paying a lot more money to go south of sixtieth Street.
Is it fair?
Well, I'm sorry about your drive from Putnam, and it will cost you a little bit of extra money. I'm the one state that doesn't have tolls. Everybody else on the Eastern Sea Board has tolls, including New York. Then you go through Jersey, where they're raising Unfortunately, you've got to pay for transportation, or you can avoid the tolls and take public transportation.
Yeah.
So you don't see a problem with it in terms of folks being penalized for living in Connecticut or New Jersey.
Hey, Look, the politics of it stinks, no question about it. But you've got to upgrade that transportation system and the subway system in New York.
So I'm not going to find fault, well, Governor need Lamont. I appreciate your spending some time with us today on Bloomberg, your reflections on Joe Lieberman and the stories of the day.
Good luck to your huskies tonight.
It's going to be a big game, ton I. Thanks Joe.
We'll be watching come back and see you soon. I'm the fastest show in politics. We have a lot more to follow here. Matt Bennett's going to chime in a little bit later from Third Way on the no labels issue, as well as what in the world is happening to our FK Junior's campaign and whether he can get on the ballot in all fifty states. Is he the real spoiler here? Chris Christi, by the way, says no to no labels. We'll have a lot more on it coming up next here on Bloomberg.
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Can just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and Enronoo with the Bloomberg Business Ad. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Great to have you with us.
Welcome to Bloomberg Radio, YouTube and the satellite as we consider news now from the former governor of New Jersey. Thanks but no thanks. How's this for a statement? I appreciate the encouragement from Chris Christy. This is about a potential run on no Labels, and I will tell you we had it on pretty darn good sources that this might actually happen as recently as last week when we
spoke with the now late Joe Lieberman. The statement goes on, der I also believe that if there is not a pathway to win, and if my candidacy is in any way, shape or form helping Donald Trump become president again, then it is not the way forward. I thought maybe Matt
Bennett had written that for him. Of course, one of our frequent Democratic panelists here on the program, Matt Bennett at Third Way, is with us right now because Third Way has been working overtime to talk about this no Labels effort, and I think I could dare say, Matt snuff it out?
Is this the end?
We lost?
Joe Lieberman? And I want to be sensitive here.
I'm trying to be delicate around this, but he was a driving force behind this group and now the last great hope, it seems, of a candidate, and Chris Christy has said, no, are we done.
We don't know.
It's a free country that no labels wants to go forward, and they can find somebody to leave their ticket.
They can, and at.
Least so far, they are not saying anything about folding their tent. But to your point, they've suffered two serious glows. One the tragic laws of Senator Lieberman, who we all mourn as a great leader for this country, was also their founding chairman and was a driving force behind the group, but it didn't run at day to day. It's being run by their founder and CEO, Nancy Jacobson, and really this is going to.
Be up to her.
But the bigger problem, as you point out, is that they cannot find an A list candidate. They can't even find a B list candidate. They were floating a former lieutenant governor as their potential presidential candidate a couple of weeks ago.
So stuff there.
The great Jeff Duncan campaign that wasn't okay. This, by the way, was initially reported by the Washington Post, the Christie story.
If we can't get.
A candidate, that also means they probably can't count on the ballot in most places.
Correct, that's right.
They had said that they would be have ballot access by the end of last year in thirty four states. They now have it in eighteen, so they're way behind predictions. And there's a bunch of states where they can't even begin to get on the ballot until they name a candidate because of state rules, so they're.
Really up against it. In fact, in New York they face.
A looming deadline in a couple of weeks where they must have a candidate and they must submit their signatures, and it does not appear that they're ready to do that. So is there's some real questions about the logistics here. If they do pick a candidate, they are going to be handing that person an enormously difficult set of problems, not only to compete with a current president, a former president, and a Kennedy, but also to gain valot access in most places.
Let's talk about it, Kennedy, because I want to ask you about this running mate. I'm fascinated by this sole story. The Nicole Shanahan element. And I've read some commentary in the wild already that came from you, so I think I know where you are on this. But in terms of No Labels taking a look at RFK Junior, is that a possibility?
I don't think so.
RFK Junior does not fit any of the metrics that No Labels had set for itself around kind of a unity ticket, and I'm not sure RFK Junior would be interested in the No Labels endorsement at this point, so I doubt it'll be them, the Kennedy Shanahan team. If No Labels goes forward, it will be with probably with somebody far less prominent to Kennedy.
What does our audience need to know about Nicole Shanahan? This choice is interesting to me, and folks like yourself have tried to make clear that this is about ballot access.
Tell us why.
Without a doubt. I mean, Nicole Shanahan has three qualities. She is over the age of thirty five and born in the United States, which means she is constitutionally able to become vice president.
And she's rich. She's got a lot of money.
She is the former wife of one of the Google founders, and that allows them great flexibility because if you are the candidate or one of the candidates on a presidential ticket, you can give your campaign unlimited contributions. That's not true of anyone else in the presidential context. They're limited to twenty nine hundred dollars a person. But Shanahan can write
enormous checks. And if they're going to be on the ballot everywhere or even most places, they're going to need those checks, and they're going to need them right away because they're kind of behind the eight ball.
So this has no doubt. They pick this woman because of her money.
Well, sounds kind of smart, then, right. She was married to last year, to Sergey Brinn, who you reference, the Google co founder who has a fortune estimated by Bloomberg News at one hundred twenty nine billion dollars. What could that means?
You've got very bad lawyers. She's got a lot of that money. So yeah, so yeah, I.
Think it's it is Well, it's smart from a political perspective because money helps in politics. But this is somebody that would be a heartbeat away from the presidency and she has absolutely no qualifications whatsoever to be president of the United States. I mean, she's a lawyer, and she's a financier of movies and stuff. I mean, she has
literally no qualifications. And if you think about it, even the least qualified vice presidential candidates like Ann Quail and Sarah Palin, at least they've been senators and governors and she's done nothing.
Wow.
Fascinating to see Donald Trump try to frame RFK as a super lib to the left of Joe Biden. He says, it reminds me of Democrats buying ads to lift up the MAGA candidate. Is he worried about RFK Junior taking votes away?
I don't think Trump is spending a lot of time worrying about this, and he's probably right not to know, but this strategy is wise on his part. I mean, what he really wants to do is ensure that RFK hurts by and at the moment, it appears that that's a likely scenario. I mean, Trump's core support is very solid. It's low, his ceiling is pretty low, but his floor is really hard, and so it's unlikely that RFK or any other third party candidate's going to hurt him much.
But they definitely could hurt Biden.
Spending time with Matt Bennett from Third Way, where he's executive vice president and a frequent as I mentioned, Democratic analyst on our panels here, Matt, it's not lost on me and our viewers looking at you on YouTube here see that Hillary.
Banner in the background.
I was at that convention when they made those And I'm just wondering ahead of Joe Biden's appearance tonight with Barack Obama and Bill Clinton. I know this is about the three presidents. Are you surprised that Hillary is not a bigger part of this? Are you surprised that Bill Clinton is?
No, I'm not surprised by other of those things.
I mean, Hillary Clinton is a huge and strong supporter of Joe Biden and doubt that she will do everything in her power to help him. But tonight was, you know, the president's and she's not a president. She came pretty close, you know, about forty thousand votes, but she's not a former president. So I don't think it's a surprise. And I'm also not at the least been surprised that Bill Clinton is helping Joe Biden. They are close allies, they
always have been. Bill Clinton has been an advisor to President Biden, throughout his time in office, and so I think this is a very natural thing that's.
Happening to me.
Yeah, we've actually there's been reporting he talks to Bill Clinton more often than Barack Obama. I'm just, you know, thinking about the me too stuff. Young people look at Bill Clinton Matt a lot differently than baby boomers do. Does he bring baggage to the stage or you just don't look at it like that, knowing his fundraising prowess, I.
Don't think so.
I mean, I think when you compare, well, when you think about this in the context of this presidential election, you have one of the major party candidates who has been found by a court to be guilty of rape. So look, I mean, I understand that there's some baggage connected to Clinton, but not that. And also I think he brings a lot of upside with him as well. He's a brilliant political mind, and he remains pretty popular, certainly among the Democratic base. So I think he's really going.
To help.
And a monster organizer, I know when it comes to raising money, certainly, the influence through the Clinton Global Initiative is something that we.
Have to acknowledge. Matt, I'm really glad you could join us today. Great to have you back. Come see us again in studios soon.
Matt Bennett at Third Way where they have been awfully busy on this no labels issue.
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She is kaytie Linetime, Joe Matthew. We're in Washington. This is Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV and radio. It's great to have you with us today. As we turned back to the campagntrail, Kaylie, we've been talking about this monster event tonight at Radio City. Barack Obama, Bill Clinton both on stage with the President of the United States. They're going to raise twenty five million dollars thanks in part to a photo line. If you want to photograph
with all three. By the way, we're told by our own Josh Wingrove that Annie leeb of It herself is going to be taking the photographs one hundred thousand dollars for one picture. That's how you get that kind of money. And to your point, that's what twice what Donald Trump pulled in a month.
Something like that twenty million he pulled in ink February the entire month.
So one night versus million month, remarkable.
With our eyes on the trail, I'm glad to say Cliff Young is with us from IPSOS. We refer to his polling and his research so often, and we've got a lot of questions for Cliff today.
It's great to see you, Welcome back to the table. Nice to see you in Washington today.
It's great to be here.
So this fundraiser tonight brings our attention back to a general election campaign that everyone seems to have settled on. I'm going to ask you some questions about RFK Junior, But what we're hearing from No Labels is nobody wants to run.
Are you settled on Trump v Biden?
I think it's going to be Trump Vive Biden. There could be a third candidate. Those are the two primary front runners on each side. We're ratcheting up now, and you know we have a campaign. We have a dispute in front of us.
Well.
As we talk about Trump and Biden, Joe mentioned at the very top of the hour that we did get consumer sentiment data today, it's the highest since twenty twenty one. It's improving. We actually saw the biggest improvement within a month going back to twenty twenty two. It does seem like feelings around the economy are starting to improve. The question is does Biden's prospects really improve with them? How close is that connection really?
Yeah, this campaign, this electoral year was always going to be a very close one. We never had any doubt in respect to that. Obviously, times not in Biden's favor anytime it incumbents down because of the economy. The question is can you gain that ground quickly enough? But what's happening now is what we expect, and the economy is improving. People perceive that, and we're beginning to see, at least on the Biden side, glimmers of hope when it comes to numbers.
Fascinating.
The RFK factor is a real one, or at least it could be. You had did some research just about a week ago on this. He has since named a running mate, and we can talk more about the direction of his campaign. But when I start hearing Donald Trump try to frame the narrative around RFK Junior calling him left of Joe Biden. I'm starting to think that he is worried about this. Should he take it seriously.
He should listen first and foremost, RFK represents a disaffected middle, whether it be ten percent, sixteen percent, somewhere in between at Ipso sometimes we ask the question without the name a nondescript third party individual, we get ten percent option cee. It is option the other option right beside the two any which anyone else but these two right. But ultimately
there is a disaffected middle right. But that disaffected middle tends to be a little right of center at least by our polling, tends to be a little bit more conservative, tends to be a little bit more female, a little bit more suburban. Maybe the dobs A decision had an effect. So I think there should be worries on Trump's side. Obviously it's Biden's job to mobilize these disaffected voters, because they're really more likely to be his voters than Trump's.
But that said, it makes total sense the way in which Trump is framing it today.
Well, you talk about mobilization of these voters, and I wonder if the question we should be asking is not how many people will will turn out to vote for RF Junior or any third party candidate whatever option see, or whether they're just going to decide not to vote be because theoretically that's there. I just wonder if the choice is more do I vote or do I vote for this other person, rather than do I vote for
this other person over Trump or Biden? Because are these individuals going to vote for Trump or Biden in any case?
Yeah, it's both right that that third option in partment represents aspirations and so some of those that aspired to a third party individual third party candidate won't vote on election day. Polling tends to overstate the third party candidate, both in the United States and around the world.
We do that everywhere.
I think it will will will will minimize a bit, narrow a bit, I'll come down to sort of I think single digit numbers by election day. But ultimately it represents both both both those that would not vote and those might they would want to vote for a third party.
Kingdon Nicole Shanahan is his pick for running mate. Of course, is married just last year to Sergate brinn Worth one hundred and twenty nine billion dollars. She is going to have the ability to donate an unlimited amount of cash as an actual candidate on the ticket to this campaign. Does that make it more legitimate? Are you expecting it to be on the ballot in all fifty states?
It's very, very difficult to get on the bat in all fifty states, especially now. It takes time and there are a lot of limitations, a lot of barriers to entry when it comes to third party candids getting on the ballot. Obviously, money helps, and a lot of money helps even more. But ultimately it's going to be about resonance with public opinion. And once again we can't minimize the importance of the anti vote, the anti Trump vote,
the anti Biden vote. At the end of the day, you might be disaffected, but do you really want Trump to win? Or do you really want Biden to win? Are you really going to throw away your vote when it comes to anti your anti candid feelings.
I often get told when I ask questions about voter sentiment that not everyone's paying as much attention as we are here in Washington. Obviously, we've been in mess in this for what feels like forever, and we will continue to be so. But a lot of people are probably just now tuning in seeing that there is someone with the Kennedy name who is running, And I just wonder to what extent you think the support he may be drawing now will actually be lasting once the public gets
to know him better. Whether it is just kind of a name recognition thing we may be seeing right now.
I think it's partially that once again our experience, whether it be in the United States or in other countries with their party candidates, they tend to taper off as you get closer to election day, and it is the case that people are not paying attention at this point. Therefore, we should be very careful with the horse race bulls. The horse race boles are fuzzy at best. Other indicators like the main problem and approve of ratings are probably
better leading indicators of what will happen. But ultimately we have to understand where we are. We're seven months out.
Kayley mentions consumer sentiment today. Our Bloomberg newspoll that came out a couple of days ago actually showed improvement in the seven swing states, or at least several key states for Joe Biden, including Wisconsin. Is the trajectory in his favor based on your research. You look a couple of months down the road, where is it going to be.
I expect this trend. Listen, these elections in the United States are very very close presidential elections. We have to remember that historically speaking, there's no way that Trump was going to win by as much as the polls are suggesting. This was a lag effect, in my opinion, in inertial effect of inflation. And the economy is improving, and that's what we're seeing right now. We're seeing sort of glimmers of hope. In some ways when it comes to the economy.
You're less likely to punish the executive in power at the time, that is Biden at this point, and your numbers and all the numbers are suggesting this more positive trend for the Biden camp.
All right, Cliff Young of IPSO, it's always great to
have you here in our Washington studio. We appreciate your time, and it's worth considering, Joe as we continue to get this economic data, and including tomorrow when you and I won't be working yas it is a holiday and the markets will be closed, but we're still going to get PCEE data and here from Chairman Power and we know that interest rates and where they are come November when voters are heading to the polls could make a massive difference.
That's absolutely right.
We'll have special coverage on Bloomberg Radio eight thirty when that PCEE data are released, and we'll be of course carrying that in the next week. This endless conversation about the economy.
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I wouldn't call this a stealth rally because it's been going on for some time, but we're back at the highest level since October not something for WTI almost eighty three dollars a barrel, and obviously that is going to translate to the price paid at the pump, a pretty visible sign of inflation to the American people.
You wonder when the oil stocks start to follow it. I guess they've started to pop a little bit. But yeah, so I paid three dollars twenty nine cents to Phillip yesterday.
Okay, in northern Virginia, so DC.
Area, Triple A has got a forecast of four dollars this summer. We're back to a four handle, right when people are starting to make up their minds or at least pay attention to this presidential cycle.
Yeah, not great news for President Biden, who, of course, throughout his administration has been fighting very hard against higher oil prices, including the tapping of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, encouraging American oil companies companies as well as opek other countries to pump more oil.
We talked to Bob McNally quite a bit around that time when they were draining a good chunk of the spr Rapidan Energy is his company where he's president, formerly in the Bush White House, and he's with us now.
Bob, it's good to see you.
Do you buy into this four dollars a gallon forecast for summer?
Hi, Joe and Kayley in many parts of the country. Yes, you know, rapid An's forecast on an annual Apple average basis or I should say national average basis is more like three to eighty, but three eighty nationally is still you know, in some swing states like Arizona, Nevada, that's
a fore handle. As you heard in California, it's way above. So, you know, I think a lot of folks are going to be seeing four dollars a gallon, If not the whole country, you get the Midwest, down Texas, the lower East Coast, maybe it'd be a little less, but yeah, a lot of folks are going to be seeing four dollars.
Well, it raises the question as to why exactly this is happening when prices had been coming down, now they're heading back up potentially to these levels. Is this an issue of the economy is still doing much better than thought? So demand is staying strong or is it an issue of supply or is it both?
And Bob, I think it's mainly on the demand side, with some geopolitical risk in there. As always, the most important determinant of what we pay at the pump is the price of global crude oil. Crude oil has been finding its footing here after selling off Sharp Lake last year. Why there's confidence in a soft landing. Macroeconomic factors have had a big influence on oil prices. Crude oil folks
are feeling better about a soft landing here. We even had some good Chinese data, and then we're starting to see the oil market tighten up. Inventories are drawing. Demand is good, even for gasoline in places like Europe, demand is not bad. And so as those inventory draws show up. OPEC plus has been extending its cuts, and now a little bit of geopolitical risk, not a lot, just a little bit, with the Ukrainian's hitting Russian refineries and the Red Sea. We're starting to see a solid base and
a decent rally here. I don't expect it to go too much higher unless things get much worse in the Middle East. But we think oil has sort of found its footing crude oil, and where crude oil goes, pump prices follow.
There were a lot of questions Bob following the bridge collapse this week in Baltimore about what impact that may or may not have on energy prices, knowing how much coal is coming out of that port. Do you have an answer to that question, Is this a factor or not?
You know, it's a big deal for coal just because that's one of the biggest coal export ports we have, so that's the.
Biggest lead over into oil prices.
No, not really no.
Baltimore. It gets its gasoline and diesel mainly from the Colonial pipeline. It does import some asphalt into Baltimore, but they'll root that in through some other ports like Norfolk. So I think it's a local issue. Unfortunately, with that tragedy, it's not even a regional, much less a national issue we should worry about for oil prices.
Well, and if anything, the fact that there are so many containers trying to import an export out of Baltimore and all of the ports for that matter on the Eastern Seaboard may just underscore how intense global treat is and how much demand there still is for goods all around the world, which maybere you just reinforce the higher prices as well, kind of being a signal of the more resilient economy that we are talking about. And of course all of this does come back here here and
washing two politics. We know that Biden has been plagued by high energy prices and prices at the pump. We talked about some of the things he tried to do to address that. What you hear on the other side of the aisle, including from his opponent in November, or presumed opponent, Donald Trump is that American energy needs to be unleashed, and Bob, I believe we already were, at least in twenty twenty three. Well, stee, if it's the case again this year pumping a record amount of oil
here in the US. So when we are talking about American energy being unleashed, what exactly, what exactly would that mean?
I think the President Trump is talking about removing unnecessary or burdensome restrictions on developing new oil resources, new refining capacity, pipelines and that type of thing more with a long term view. To your point, Kayleie, you're exactly right. Look, being a big producer doesn't mean you get to control the price at the pump. President Trump found that out. President Biden's finding that out. President Bush found that out.
Big doesn't mean prices or comfortable prices, because the United States is basically a price taker in the global oil market, no matter how much oil we produce. The real you know, to paraphrase, I'm sorry, but maose tung power in the global oil market flows through the barrel of spare production capacity, and that's mainly in Saudi Arabia that's wielded by opek plus, they have more pricing power than the president. No matter how much we produce here, it's a tough truth for
politicians to accept. You would think, if we're a big producer, we ought to be able to keep gasoline at three dollars and twenty cents forever. Doesn't work that way, Bob.
Did we miss our opportunity to refill the spr.
Yeah, you know, I think we made a mistake in selling, especially that one hundred and eighty million barrels we sold way too much. To its credit, Joe, the administration has been putting oil back in. I think they realized this thing is too low with all the mayhem we have in the world, and so they're putting in three four or so a million a month. However, they said, look, if prices keep rising, we're gonna stop filling the SPR And I'm afraid that's a real chance here, So we
should have avoided the sale. It's good that Doe is refilling. Be great if we refilled faster, but if prices start rising here, they'll probably stop. And that's understandable too. What would be a big mistake is to again use it as an election ploy and spill it again, to release another sixty or ninety million barrels just because gasoline prices approach your four dollars handle. That would be just really unfortunate.
What about over the longer term, as you talk about the opportunity to fill up the SPR, what if we actually need it not for price control, but for some kind of emergency. What kind of situation are we going to be in it If it's drained to a large extent, we're in trouble.
We have drained our SPR to forty year lows, and it will be costly to refill it anywhere close to the six hundred plus million barrels, much less the seven hundred million barrels where we got it to w in the bush administrate. And as you mentioned, it's all about responding to a disruption. So if we get a few years down the road, demand doesn't peak, things are getting frothy, OPEC spare capacity goes down, and we have a conflict in the Arabian Gulf or somewhere else, we won't have
that emergency buffer. That's why I think again, I'll give them credit to their credit. Doe is saying this thing is too low for a dangerous volatile oil world. We need to refill it, but I'm afraid there's not political will on either side of the aisle really to refill it fast enough to give us that buffer later this decade. We'll miss it, all right.
We have to leave it on that note. But Bob McNally of Rapidan Energy, thank you so much as always for joining us on Bloomberg Television and Radio as we talk about energy, which certainly is a factor in this electoral cycle. Joe, It's something we hear a lot about from both sides, and we know once again prices at the pump do you have an influence on voter sentiment, how they're feeling about the economy as they prepare to
decide who they want to vote for president? But energy in the economy is on what is a long list of issues that may change the minds of vote.
Well, that's for sure.
And then we see consumer sentiments today at the highest levels July, which you were smart to invoke earlier. Rick Davis, one of our political analysts who was on with us earlier this hour, always tells it's a more.
Reliable poll than the polls.
So even as oil prices increase, we're seeing sentiment on the rise as well, and I'm sure it's confounding some of the well I say, political the economic minds inside the White House.
Yeah, although maybe both of that is a sign of a more resilient economy than thought. People might be feeling better about the economy because they still have their jobs, the economy is still growing, they can maybe afford the higher gas is their wages are rising, but definitely something of a puzzle. And we know that the economy is often top of mind, or at least up there on
the list for voters. But we've found out throughout this primary cycle and now that we're effectively in the general election, that immigration in the border, yes, sometimes is equal to or even above that issue in many of these states.
That's for sure. That's what our polling has brought to us.
And as we learned on the ground in Iowa and New Hampshire, that was the case in both of those primaries. So it will certainly be near the top, if not the most important issue in the general election campaign. So not lost on us here, and that's why our bureau chief in Washington, Peggy Collins, made tracks to the border. Just returned recently from our southwest border in Texas's with the table now, Peggy, it's great to see you.
This is going to be featured in our Big.
Take podcast, Big Take DC podcast to be specific, that drops later today.
I have no idea what's in store for us. What did you learn on your trip?
Well, it was.
A really impactful trip. As you were saying, Joe, we really wanted to go down to the border and talk to the people on multiple sides of the issue there because it has become other than the economy, one of the top two issues that voters are sighting in terms of what matters most of them in this election in November. And one of the things that really stood out when we were there was how porous the border is really.
When you're there, you really see how close we are to Mexico and that the river is really the border. It almost felt some at some points like you could toss a baseball across and hit Mexico. One of the other things that really stood out is how much of a multi pronged effort it is to try and deal with the crisis of so many people coming across the
border from places in Latin America. I mean, I went up in a helicopter with some people to try and see where they're seeing migrants crossing and how they're trying to deal with them. On Ranchers Land, for example, there's boats that are traversing back and forth. There's a people who are waiting for the migrants to potentially touch ground on US oil and then process them. There's nonprofits that are working with people who are coming across the border.
There's city officials, there's religious people. It really is like a multi pronged effort, and time and time again we heard from people two key things. One that it is a humanitarian crisis, and two that's small towns like egle Pass, Texas where we were really need help because they're small border towns and they're dealing with an incredible volume of people that are coming across well.
And it's worth pointing out that for that reason, the Governor of Texas, Greg Abbott, has been really at the forefront of this issue, having the State of Texas do things that are legally in question now in regard to being able to detain people suspected of being having migrated over illegally. What sense did you get of the way that Texas is handling it and how much cooperation there really is at the federal level with what the state is doing.
So when we were there, actually we went out with the Texas Department of Safety and we traveled along, drove along the border, and when you're actually with them, we don't really sense a lot of tension between the Feds and the state. Right but Texas has taken over this area right underneath a bridge that is a legitimate border
crossing an Eagle Pass Texas. It's Shelby Park and basically there's a golf course there and there's a bridge and people traverse it every day from Mexico to the US, but also Texas the state has taken it over because as they say, they need more help than they need to get control over this. And it is difficult to see. I mean, there's a lot of constantina wire and razor wire, barbed wire up and down for miles in this Shelby
Park area, but also up in some private lands. And you see we want to see some of the places where the migrants have been able to cross because there's an opening in the barbed wire and there's just piles and piles and piles of clothes. When they cross the river, they take off their wet clothes and then they keep heading on. But there's diapers, there's toothbrushes, there's clothes, there's kids backpacks, there's babies booties. I mean, it's really human when you see it, it's.
Really something as you bring this to life for us. You were an eagle pass, you said, the center of the standoff, as our Texas Bureau chief Julie Fine refers to it. I think you guys were together on this trip.
You already answered part of my question. I was going to ask you if you could see the razor wire, if you could see the buoys and some of these other obstacles that have been put in place that have been considered very controversial from a place where an average citizen or a journalist could go.
Was that all in your view?
We did see it.
Yes, it is a striking to see it. You look over at Mexico at points and there's cows and horses and men fishing, and then you stand on the US side and you're looking right in the face of you know, barbed wire. But so many different people around those that we talked to, both law enforcement and people who were working with the migrants, and the migrants themselves did say that they're really trying to find a solution here because they understand how human it is.
It drops today the Bloomberg Big Take DC podcast, with the great help of Peggy Collins.
Thanks Peggy for being.
With us, This is Bloomberg.
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