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Welcome to the Monday edition of Bloomberg's Sound On. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington, where it's just as kids House and Senate around. Well, the President is here, after all, so were the turkeys. Big doings today at the White House. Not in the Rose Garden, interestingly, but on the South lawn, pardoning the national Turkey and the backup as the President celebrates his eighty first birthday. Yes, grabbing the third rail
of politics along with the turkeys. Not social Security or Medicare, but his age.
This is the seventy sixth anniversary of this event.
I want you to know I wasn't there in the first one.
I was too young to make it up.
But he was live seventy six years ago. That's, of course, one of the major factors we keep hearing in this campaign as the now eighty one year old runs against the I believe seventy six year old Donald Trump. You might check me on that and big questions about the role that age may play in this campaign as the president wakes up to a new low in his approval rating according to the latest national NBC News poll that would be forty percent, and we've seen lower numbers and
other polls, but for this one, not great. And we begin our conversation there with a lot of campaign news to talk about today with Kyle Condack, the managing editor of Sabado's Crystal Ball, joining us from the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. Kyle, it's good to see you. I maybe it's a good thing he got the birthday out of the way. He doesn't have to celebrate this near an election. Is there at least that upside for Joe Biden?
I mean, I guess it's also kind of a kind of a slow news week. And you know, I mean, I don't know if Biden's specific birthday matter is more than just the overall fact that a lot of Americans are just speaking tools for the job and they're concerned about his, you know, his ability to do it because of his age. And of course, you know, people do express some of the same concerns about Donald Trump, but it's always been more striking for Biden, just the higher
percentage of people who are worried about his age. I frankly this because Biden maybe shows his age a little bit more than Trump. That's not to say that people are concerned about Trump for other reasons. It's just that for Biden, age does seem to be a pretty big factor here.
Yeah, for sure, forty percent of registered voters approve of his job performance, fifty seven percent disapprove. We've got numbers as well specific to foreign policy. Kylie's having trouble with young people. You spend every day around young people by the nature of your job at the University of Virginia. These are eighteen to thirty four year olds isolated in this poll to show a real spot of weakness. What does he do about that?
Look, I think Biden has had trouble with younger voters going back to the twenty twenty primary season. You know, younger voters were like their sport Bernie Sanders, or you know, than the broader electorate or you know, other Democratic candidates. Of course, Biden ended up winning that primary relatively easily after a very rocky start, and of course young voters, you know rally to him in twenty twenty and are
generally a pretty democratic constituency. But we've seen poll after pole lately where Biden is actually either you know, tied or losing with with Donald Trump amongst young voters. I kind of don't believe that that would actually happen in a you know, in a general election setting. I think there might be just something going on with the polls right now that that you know, or some of those
folks would come home. But even if you don't believe that Trump could actually be Biden amongst young voters, which is I would describe myself, there probably is some softness there that Biden needs to uh needs to firm up.
Because if there's you know, we're to you know time where American elections are very closely attested and competitive, and if there is an erosion for Biden amongst the key constituency among like young people, either they're not supporting him a high enough rate, they're bleeding over the third party candidates, or they're just not showing up, or some of them are going to Trump. Any weakness there could could be fatal.
Again in an election where you'd expect that the states that decide this thing, to be to be exceedingly close. So it may be that that that that the polls are overstating the problem or not realistically presenting the problem that Biden has with young voters. But their problem still exists. And that's that's I think that that's my takeaway anyway.
Yeah, well, you know, and the issue of Israel appears to be a problem among young voters when it comes to Joe Biden. Progressives are concerned about the loss of civilian life, calling for an end to the bombing. We're seeing pretty robust pro Palestinian demonstrations like the one that we saw in front of d n C headquarters. On the other hand, we don't see voters making decisions based on foreign policy typically, Kyle, and I wonder how you see that, if at all, playing out in this election
as an issue for young voters. Do they simply stay home if they don't see what they like?
Yeah, I mean, and you know, the younger voters, I think are are likelier than the overall electorate two basically take the side of the Palestinians or be more sympathetic to the Palestinians. And this, you know, the these disputes between between Israelis and the Palestinians. And you know whether that lasts or whether it matters next November. I mean, you know, whether this is a big focus at the time of the election next fall. I think that's an
open question. But here again you have an issue where Biden is maybe taking a bit of you know, a different position than I think that some young people would take. Now, of course, you know those folks aren't going to find a you know, more support for the Palestinians or Donald Trump either in fact, right right, more pro Israeli reflexively than than than Biden is. But that's where you then wonder about some of these voters just stay at home
or voting third party or whatnot. So again, it's an issue to the extent it matters among young's people, it might be hurting sort of helping to hurt Biden's numbers with that diographic.
Well, if we were going to Joe Biden's birthday party and we wanted to say something nice, there are a couple of other numbers out there today worth hitting, Kyle, and I love your reaction. We've got another drop from Sienna. This is the New York Times poll that got people in a spin a couple of weeks ago about Joe Biden. It was not great for him when you started looking at swing states. In this case, it's about the hypothetical New York. This is New York State. By the way,
Trump versus Biden. Biden is up by ten and maybe we shouldn't be surprised in New York. But when you add Trump versus Biden, Kennedy, and West, it's still a Biden advantage. There's another one out there today, Harvard Harris poll Kyle that shows more than half, in fact, more than sixty cent of Trump primary voters say there's at least some chance they would support a candidate other than
Donald Trump. And the Republican presidential primary. We're a year out here, essentially, Kyle, and I wonder how much stock you put in any of these.
You know, if you wanted to cherry pick some numbers, you could find some weakness for Trump in his own primary, you know, be it those people saying they're open to voting for other candidates. Have been some other polls that have suggested that. And yet when you actually ask about the named candidates, you know, Trump is generally well over fifty nationally and he's at least over forty in Iowa,
New Hampshire, the leadoff states. And you know, there's the same kind of problem that Republicans had, and it's even it's an even bigger problem in twenty twenty four than it wasn't twenty sixteen, where you know, you could you could say, oh, well, more than half the people aren't supporting Trump and these polls, but their votes are all splintered among Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis and you know,
a couple a couple of other candidates. You know, I'm curious to see if you know, we actually do see a real race in Island New Hampshire, and you know, whether that might mean anything for future contests, you know, whether Trump's support may be overstated at this point. But I mean, the numbers are what they are, and I mean Trump has been a really solid position even if you can find you know, you sometimes see this in polling.
People will express support for some sort of generic outcome, but then when you give them the specifics on the candidate choices, they'll behave differently. Sometimes you know, generic Democrat or generic Republican and look really great, but of course that's not a real option.
Spending time with Kyle conduct from Sabado's Crystal Ball the University of Virginia Center for Politics. You cranked out a really interesting story a couple of days ago, a piece of research from your shop about the flood of retirements that I'd like to get into with you. The latest one was Congressman Kildye of Michigan. We're seeing a lot of establishment members on both sides of the aisle call it quits, Kyle. I'm assuming it. Well, everyone's got their
own reasoning here. But the more chaotic things get, the more the retirements seem to stack up. And I'm wondering where we are when it comes to D's versus ours and what impact that's going to have on the balance of power in the House and Senate in this election.
Yeah, if you look at the actual competitive seats, I mean, there are a lot of retirements lately, and you know, most House seats are not competitive a general election sense, so stands the reasons that most retirements would also not really impact the general election, and that's been that's been, you know, a prominent thing among these retirements, particularly, there's been a number of Republicans from districts that just really aren't winnable for Democrats, and you know, in anything other
than like a huge democratic wave sort of environment, maybe maybe even not then. But if you look at the actual competitive seats, so the only one, the only open seat right now that Republicans are defending that's really really competitive is George Santos the seat, and of course he retired. And it's not like George Santos saying he's not going to run in twenty twenty four hurts Republicans. It probably actually helps them in their quest to hold that that
toss up that Joe Biden won by several points. But then if you look on the Democratic side, there are some open seats that are like in the toss up or kind of like leaning Democratic categories. You know, the most competitive races Avvigil Spanberger in Virginia seven. She is running for governor in twenty twenty five. He's not running again. You mentioned Kildee in Michigan, that's a toss up seat.
Melissa Slocket running for US Senate in Michigan. She leaves behind it, you know, a narrow Biden toss up seat. Katie porter Out in California has been running for Senate for a while. That's another open seat that, while Democratic leaning at the presidential level, it performs a little bit, you know, i'd say significantly more competitively down ballot. So as Democrats try to piece together a House majority next year, which they're perfectly capable of winning, they do have just
more sort of open seat defense to play. And you know, retirements often will spike at this time of year. You know, people go home for the holidays, they reassess things, they wonder whether they're going to come back or not. Filing deadlines are approaching in some places, and a lot of people just decide not to come back. I'm curious to see if there are any other retirements that significantly impact
the you know, the competitive battlefield. You know, the Kildee retirement Michigan is definitely one of those, because I think he would have probably still had a competitive race as an incumbent, but I think he would have been favored. Whereas now like that that seat is like fifty to fifty.
You did adjust your rating. While it may not be a surprise for West Virginia Senate after Joe Manson announced his plans, Kyle, what will it mean for the balance of power in the Senate.
Yeah, I was just focusing on the House there. But of course, the you know, the probably the most certainly the most meaningful Senate retirement was Joe Mansion recently. And that's a you know, that's a that goes from a you know, just a slightly leaning Republican race with Mansion on the ballot to you know, basically no doubt save
Republican pick up. And you know, we've seen this in some previous cycles, when you know, Republicans have won the Senate, like at twenty fourteen, there were a few red state Democratic retirees and Republicans ended up winning those seats easily, including in West Virginia in twenty fourteen when Jay Rockefeller retired, Shelley Moore Capito, a Republican, ended up winning that seat
quite comfortably. And I suspect that probably Jim Justice, the sitting governor, you know, is favored to get nominated in favor to flip that seat next year. So that would make if nothing else changes, that would make the Senate fifty to fifty continent on the vice president, and the Republicans have some other attractive targets, specifically in Trump won state. So John Tester and Montana and Shared Brown in Ohio.
The a number of other kind of late blue state Democratic Senate incumbents who are you know for tough races next year? The Republicans don't have a lot of defense to play. Maybe Ted Cruz in Texas, maybe Rick Scott and Florida. But you know, Senate, I think, is you know, looking pretty decent for Republicans? All I can remember saying that in some past cycles and it didn't necessarily come through for them.
Man a seminar this Monday with Kyle Condick. Great to have you, Kyle, always a great pleasure to spend some time and get your view from Sabado's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics. Great Thanksgiving, I'm sure it'll be a beautiful one in Charlottesville. As we assemble our panel, Genie Shanzana and Rick Davis are with us Bloomberg Politics contributors. We just talked about a lot with Kyle. It's going to take us the better part of the hour to unpack all of it, and we
shall with our signature panel. Genie eighty first birthday. By the way, James checks me, Donald Trump is seventy seven. I guess birthdays in June eighty one years old? Is he not better for getting this out of the way now?
Yeah, and get it out of the way, do it as quietly as possible. But boy, that NBC poll was not much of a birthday gift, Joe. I don't know what you got for your birthday, but hopefully it was far better than NBC game than Joe Biden, because that really really was not what you want. And it's the numbers, as you just talked about, pretty bad for Biden.
So what's the bigger turkey than Rick Davis, the one that was on the table being pardon today or the commander in chief going into this reelection?
I think that if Joe Biden had his way, he'd like to be the one being pardoned and the turkey running for reelection. Because I got to tell you these numbers out of the NBC poll, I mean, like, I know where you're out.
I know these aren't LIKELI movies. I know all the problems we have with these.
Surveys, but I must tell you forty one percent of Democrats disapprove of the job their president is doing. I mean, like that that just screams out loud, like watch out there in your rear view mirror. They're coming for you.
A lot more ahead with Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano. That's why we're here. I'm Jill Matthew. This is Bloomberg.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
The turkeys this year we're named Liberty and Bell. After spending the night and the posh Willard Hotel as they do each year in this annual tradition. Yeah, these are turkeys. They are then pardoned by the Commander in chief so they can go live on their lives in a peaceful retirement. The president today not in the rose garden. Interestingly, they actually went out on the south lawn for this one. Massive turkeys.
That's a big bird man. It's I hereby pardon Liberty and Bell.
Yes, and now we can all live to I guess eat turkey later this week, Happy eighty first birthday to the president. If you're just joining us, though, he's facing some pretty rough polling data. Not that that's new, but well it is in this case in terms of a new low when it comes to his approval rating. Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano are with us year on this Monday to kick off Thanksgiving Week Bloomberg Politics contributors and Genie. I'll be curious your take on this as a political scientist.
What actually has your attention in this poll and what does not, Because obviously young people are not happy with the president right now, when it comes to Israel, when it comes to student loans, when it comes to a lot of different issues. When you start going into other demographics, there are great concerns about his age that persist, as well as his handling of the economy. What's your takeaway from this poll from NBC News.
You know, I think one thing that really jumped out on the foreign policy front was just what you mentioned. Eighteen to thirty four year olds, he's fifty points underwater, seventy percent disapproval on his handling of what's going on in terms of fore foreign policy. Rather Israel, Gaza, of course, I think you know, as you look back at the previous NBC polls, what also jumps out is this is the first time he is losing to Donald Trump. Of course, it's still within the margin of error, but that is
a bad sign. I think one of the things we keep hearing from Democrats is that, well, don't worry. In twenty eleven, Barack Obama, he wasn't doing well, but he was able to pick it up. But never once was he losing to a Republican. And that's where Joe Biden unfortunately finds himself yesterday, the day before his birthday. So those numbers are really really troubling.
I also have some.
Good news, if we can talk good news, or like maybe the sky isn't falling since it's Thanksgiving, I'll say later. But so I don't want to leave it all negative.
But it's a concerning pole.
Yes it is, uh Rick, you just weighed in on that a couple of moments ago, And I wonder what would be your biggest concern? Is it losing young people as a Democrat because they tend to more closely align with your politics, and this is a president who's tried to embrace their politics sometimes, in the case of student loans, not only not always to their satisfaction. Or are you more concerned about older people knowing that young people are not terribly reliable on election day?
Yeah, look, I'm kind of the ladder, you know.
I leave young people to Genie.
She has to teach them. Obviously she's not doing her job right, as the Democrats would would believe, because they are definitely not liking this guy, Joe Biden.
But they don't vote.
They don't show a propensay to vote every chance they have to show up and really turn an election other than on abortion and referendums that off your elections, you know, they just they they stick to their issues, right, abortion, gay marriage, cannabis, the stuff that really gets them out presidential politics doesn't. I mean, I think they have the right attitude. I mean, presidential politics is meaningless to most of them, and that shows up in a lot of
the polling. So it's not surprising to me that that that Uncle Joe's getting a bad shake with young voters. But that's not what's got him worried. What's got him worried is their own base. Uh, the the idea that Democrats are sort of bailing on this guy. When you look at the matchups with with Trump, Trump isn't moving up at all. Right, he is exactly where he's been all year long. It's where Biden is headed. And that's
a digression of independent voters and his base Democrats. Now you have to assume the Democrats are going to come back, right, I mean, you get through all this primary stuff, and when you've got a head to head if it is Donald Trump and and and Joe Biden. And by the way, Biden's got a lot easier path to his nomination and Trump does. Even though we all assume Trump's going to be the nominated at this stage, you know, then those Democrats likely will come home. If they don't, that is
the number one issue for Biden. He can't even start thinking about independent voters unless he's got his base intact.
Well, this might help with the bass.
Jeanie.
The President was reportedly close to over the weekend a deal to see more hostages released, potentially a good number of hostages from Gaza. Today, he was asked about that at the Turkey event. He was working the rope line and a reporter you'll hear yelling at him the President's response here he is.
There is a hostage deal.
There was a president is a hostage deal there.
I believe so I'm not.
Yes, I believe so, he said. Then when asked you believe so, he said yes and held up his crossed fingers, hoping that there would be some news here. Jennie, how important will that be for progressives to see that development assuming it happens. Yeah, then the.
Band leader really struck up that music when he was trying to answer. I love that. You know, it's critically because those are the kinds of things that can change really really quickly, results like the one we've seen in this poll. And so if we do see a hostage return safely, if we do see a pause, say a five day pause that goes along with that, that will help the president. And you know, that is what we have to keep in mind. Not only is it early, not only is this a national poll, but events find
a way of transforming what we're seeing here. And you know, I also think we heard from Senator Blumenthal over the weekend and he said something really really critically important, and that is as much as people are discontented in the United States, and not just Democrats, Republicans, independents. The most important thing is to see how they're behaving at the polls, and what have we seen. Democrats have been coming out and they have been winning, whether it's Kentucky, whether it's Ohio.
We just saw this happen the other day. That matters their behavior at the polls and the organization that got them out there so Democrats could perform. Democrats have been over performing in elections. So there are some good signs for Democrats out there. This poll is not necessar necessarily one of them, but there are other things that can change the trajectory. Events and what's been happening at the polls.
And in defense of young people, they do have a lot to offer and they do get out to vote, and I think they will get out to vote. They of course, are discontented by a lot of things going on, and I think rightly so, so we I think should listen to them very very carefully.
Well, you wonder if more of them should be running rick with the number of retirements that we're seeing here. I talked to Kyle Condick about that a little while ago. I believe we're in excess of thirty lawmakers now at this point. Representative Kildy added his name to the list last week that many will remember for Joe Manchin announcing what's your take on the impact that this will have on the campaign trail to balance the power here in Washington,
or is Kyle Wright? A lot of these seats will stay right with the party now occupying them.
Yeah.
Sure.
I don't think anybody's predicting this to be a swing election in the sense that you know, there's any one party that has a significant advantage going into the cycle. You know, we're just now entering one year into election day, So I don't get the impression that posters are telling us that there's going to be a significant move.
So you would assume.
That in most of these cases, they're going to be pretty much the same kinds of candidates that win the nomination that will then try to contest for these open seats. I would say to watch out for because the one thing that has changed cyclical elections is Donald Trump, and
that's for the worse, not for the better. There have been many cycnical races, like just the midterms a year ago, that Donald Trump was able to get some of his own weaker Republican candidates nominated because he controls a lot of primary voters and that hurt our ability to contest election. So we haven't talked much about, you know, the Trump campaign and their operation trying to load up his kind of candidates for these seats. But we could anticipate that
that's going to happen. It's happening right now, and if we put weaker candidates into these open seats, we can't assume that we're going to hold them, and Democrats will take advantage of that, just like they did in the midterm.
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We have found Kayley Lines. It's been a couple of days. She's very busy, but we found her back here on the fastest show in politics. Happy Thanksgiving Week. It's lovely to see you. There's new polling data, not only on the campaigns today, and we had we had some good stuff that we were just going through with the panel, but fascinating from Quinnipiac. You're gonna be with family. I hope this Thanksgiving indeed, because they don't want you to talk about politics. Did you see it?
Yeah? I did.
I don't know if that would normally be your bag, or if you're talking football like normal people.
A little bit of both.
Six out of ten say they're hoping to avoid discussing politics because basically everyone remembers what happened last.
Year, right.
I would count myself as one of those six out So you would rather not well, mostly because I talk politics all day.
It's literally my job, yes, you know, in office. I'd rather just talk about anything.
That's also why everybody wants to talk to you about it, well exactly, and you get that whole. I know you don't want to you do this all day, but I just need to know what's your take on blah blah blah.
That was Thanksgiving for me last year with crypto okay, ftx, so that was well.
I'm with the twenty nine percent say they're looking forward to discussing politics because you know, in our house and our family, it doesn't matter which side this thing is going to break down into a fight anyway, so you may as well get it. You know, let's let's do it over something that counts before everybody starts grabbing the coats and storming out. And now Kaylee knows a little more about what it's like to be in my house. I can't wait the stuffing at the circuit such fun.
You have three days to brace yourself and get all your arguments exactly.
Yes, absolutely, I don't. I bet you Jack doesn't have this problem. Does appropriations come up at the at the Thanksgiving?
I want to know if there's going to be a shutdown. I surely see the family in Virginia. If you're in the DC area, you want to know if restaurants could be closing down, if they're near a federal building. We all care if it's going to be a shutdown. Fortunately, we don't have the same questions. Usually when I see family around the holidays, it's like a Christmas shutdown deadline, And at least we don't have that. But I do get those questions.
So you're you're home free this this year. They don't relatively bring it up until January, if they even I don't know, is everyone assuming the way we are that the government's going to shut down in January. Maybe that's not what happens, But they might want you to explain what a laddered cr is that might come up before
the game. And also, you know kind of where we started here, because there was a lot of talk about a honeymoon for Mike Johnson at the beginning, and people are thinking things might feel a little different after we eat our turkey and come back to Washington.
What do you think, Yeah, it's there are a lot of challenges. I don't know if this devolves into a shutdown or just the lack of a deal that requires a full year continuing resolution. It's a little too early to say what happens if things break down and how they break down, but it I think the honeymoon is pretty much over for Johnson. Not that people are itching for a shutdown, not that they're trying to kick him out.
It's not the same as it was with McCarthy. But there's some frustration from the conservative hardliners who basically gave him a runway here and said, you know, well, now we want something really good. We want spending cuts in an actual funding deal, and that is not easy for him to negotiate. So there's a shorter leash at least right now.
Well, in one of those conservative members. Congressman Bob Good of Virginia is the one who vocally, repeatedly has said that a government shutdown wouldn't actually be so bad. It's
not something that needs to be feared. And he, when the Continuing Resolution passed, said that Johnson promised he's not going to do another CR and that basically he intends to hold him to that, which leaves what two options, though, Jack, if you can't kick the can down the road again, it's either sort out of the appropriations bills or shut down the parts of government whose funding is expired. There's no third option, really, is there?
Yeah?
That is him taking away the third option. The third option would be another Continuing Resolution and buying more time. And if he is making that promise and sticking to it, which I think we could still say is an outstanding question, then there's only two options. And they made it more difficult on themselves by not only setting two deadlines, but they had to decide ahead of time which bills they need to enact by January nineteenth, in which ones they
need to enact by February second. There's no magic in that decision saying oh, well, you picked four bills that you want to strike a deal on in January. Therefore you have a deal. It's very difficult. Now they're locked into saying we have less flexibility. We need a deal on the four bills that we've predetermined, and then we get to work on the other eight. So they've given them some less flexibility than usual under a cr unbelievable.
I hope you get a long weekend or something since everyone's out of town.
Is that part of the job, Yes, part.
Of the deal.
Fortunately, first time since twenty twelve that there hasn't been a December funding deadline. Incredible, So I am enjoying it.
Well, jeez, all right, we'll have happy Turkey, and thank you Jack for being a Palin helping us understand all this fine Jack's work, of course, Bloomberg Government, Bloomberg dot Com. I'm Joe Matthew along with Kaylee Lines. I wonder what Mick thinks about this. I think Mick is with me in the twenty nine percent. I mean, there's no way, Mick Malveney, you can't hide from politics on Thanksgiving. That's all anyone in your family wants to talk about.
Right, Absolutely not, Joe, what are you talking about?
We've got you've got listen between politics, football, turkey and napping.
I mean politics is coming in and just fourth in my house.
Yeah, but I mean, if i'm your family member, you're the one guy I know who's got an answer to these things. They don't want to talk about Trump and what happened in the Congress and apparently not.
Hi twenty three year old triplets. Do you think they want to talk about politics and what daddy does for a living.
I'm thinking about the relatives though obviously we don't need to dwell on this. I mean, it's the extended family that ends up banging out of Thanksgiving. What do you think about the honeymoon here? What's what does Mike Johnson do during the holiday break? Is he on the phone with members every day?
I hope so?
And by the way, what he's not doing over the holiday is raising money. We could talk about that another time. Is to you know that there's a bunch of different job descriptions to be the speaker, and one of them is to be the leading fundraiser for your party.
And Mike, who seems you know, he's very deep in the policy. This ladder cr is very creative.
I get all of that but is he out there raising you know, the millions of dollars the party needs over the holidays to help keep the majority that would remain to be seen. So, no, he looks like he's on the phone or I expected to be on the phone talking about different possibilities with different sort of the five families within the Republicans.
If he's not, he's not doing his job.
Well, okay, So if he's doing his job or not in the interimke it still is a question of how long he gets to keep the job.
Right.
We had a whole conversation when the Continuing Resolution was getting off the ground that oh wow, he gets to pass a clean CR with Democratic support when Kevin McCarthy did not. I just wonder how far that grace realistically is going to extend.
MEC I can't imagine very much further. I thought it would be better than this, Kaylee. I really did, because I talked to folks on the Hill and they're like, yeah, there'd be a honeymoon period when he give him a while. And I was surprised at how short that went, at least for some folks. I still think the appetite for another speaker battle is very very low right now. But I also know that, which is that the tensions are extraordinarily high. I've been to Washington a little bit recently.
You go over to the Capitol Hill Club, the Republican Club, and the tension is palpable in the building. This is usually a place that folks would go to sort of unwind and you know, you might fight during the day, but you go and have dinner together at the end of the night.
And that's just not happening.
So that the fractures within the Republican Party right now in the House are absolutely real. And my guess is for Mike Johnson that speaks to a much shorter honeymoon period, because you're exactly right. I mean, somebody has to ask the question, how would it have been different if Kevin McCarthy was still in charge?
And right now the answer is not very.
Wow. I can only imagine the stuff you hear at the Capitol Hill Club. What are the factions at this point? Mick. You know, we like to talk about the fact that you're co founder of the Freedom Caucus and that you have a sense of I guess the pulse in that group, but that's not even a single group anymore. Has this come down to individual lawmakers in their positions against the speaker.
Yeah, there's a lot of that, and by the way, both parties struggle with that. You know that there's a longer discussion to be had about misaligned incentives and what sort of people run for office now and do people actually go to Washington to be lawmakers and legislators? Do they go to Washington to become famous? And social media sort of you know, fantastics. There's a lot of individuality out there right now.
You've got a lot of.
Individuals playing what is traditionally a team sport, especially in the House, and it is having a negative effect. I've kind at least four groups. You've got the Freedom Caucus folks. Then you've got the folks who are further out of the right than the Freedom Caucus or the anarchist wing. That's the Matt Gates wing of the party. You've got the more traditional conservatives and the Republican Study Committee. You've got this main Street folks who are sort of the centrist.
And then you've got the Appropriators, which is an entirely different group. So Mike's got a lot of Mike Johnson's got a lot of different interests to balance, and he doesn't have a lot of experience with that, and he doesn't have a lot of good will built up. Now that being said, he doesn't have a lot of negative will either. You know, there's folks who say that Kevin lied to them, and they're not saying that about Mike.
But Kevin also had two decades worth of good will built up that Mike's not had a chance to do yet.
Well, that was the whole conversation around how he got the gavel in the first place. Maybe it was less about how many friends he had, but how few enemies. Mick, As we talk about the challenges that Johnson is facing and keeping his conference together, it's not just a spending fight. He has to navigate or questions around funding for Israel
and Ukraine. He is going to in very short order when they return from the holiday, have to deal with an expulsion resolution from for Congressman George Santos, the Republican from New York. Of course, there was that scathing Ethics Committee report released last week resulted in the chair of the Ethics Committee putting forward this expulsion resolution. You think Santos is done.
Mick, I do Actually, I think that's probably the easiest thing for him to deal with. That sort of puts the rest of it in perspective, an expulsion of one of your own members at a time when you have an extra ordinarily narrow margin. But my guess is that George is probably gone. There's just no there's especially now in light of the of the Ethics Committee findings and so forth, he'll be gone and that may, you know, at least for a short period of time, takes the
margin down by another seat. Now, I thought you were going to go kaily to the impeachment issues and the other investigations and so forth as to whether or not that you know, that's that's not a spending issue. It's not a government shutdown issue. But it's something they're going to have to deal with because there are going to be swing members centrist members of Mike Johnson's party who don't want to deal with that because I think it's
a negative in their in their races. So that's going to be that's going to be another battle he's got to face beyond just spending. But I think Santos is the low hanging fruit. By the way I think it speaks volumes to either party when they're willing to hold
their own accountable. I have a great deal of respect for some of the Democrats in the Senate what they've said about Menendez, and I have a great deal respect for a lot of the Republicans who have come out against George Santos in light now this of this ethics finding. So my guess is, in a strange, bizarre kind of way, that's going to be the easiest thing that Mike Johnson has to do with over Christmas and Thanksgiving.
Sounds like you would have voted to expel if you were still there, Mick.
Is that right?
Well, I think they've done it the right way.
They didn't vote to expel before the due process had run, but now that the Ethics Committee finding is out there, they've got some you know, I think that's the right way to look at it. Is it beyond the pale that there might be one member out of five hundred and thirty five in the House and the Senate who is just so twisted that he shouldn't be there.
Yeah, I think that's a possibility.
And when your own delegation in your own home state, from your own party are telling people you need to go. That's when you sort of wake up and say, you know what, maybe it's better if we move on.
Sounds like you were about to say yes, yeah.
Is that a two hundred word answer of yes.
Mick, Yeah, yeah.
Listen, I've done two thousand if you really want to be a filibuster. But yeah, I think he's probably.
Said, wow, all right, well you brought up the impeachment.
Do you think that's going to go.
Disappointed that George Santos might be leaving and what we lose the ability to help?
Oh my gosh, well now you're in These are competing interests. I mean, my goodness, you know how many shows he's helped to populate here. Uh, but you know, we'll do it's best for the institution, Mick. I think that's what Kaylee would have said.
That's what Mike Johnson said.
He wants members to consider what is best for the institution just quickly, Mick, is what best is best for the institution impeaching a president of the opposite party, Again.
It just depends what the evidence is.
Keep in mind, there's a difference between an impeachment inquiry, which is what is going on now, and an impeachment and if they find the Republicans find evidence during the impeachment inquiry.
That that justifies an impeachment. I think that's okay.
If you were just doing an impeachment inquiry, sort of check the box of something you will going to do. Anyway, I think that's a different story. My biased opinion is I thought that's what the Democrats were doing with with Donald Trump.
They were going to impeach him. They ran, many of.
Them did on impeaching him, so they're sort of laying the foundation for doing what they were going to do. Anyway, if you're going to impeach the president, there needs to be a really good reason for that needs to be a high crime and misdemeanor. If they found that and there's been some pretty damning evidence, or at least evidence that might be damning against President Biden, then yeah, then
that's fine. But you can't it can't be seen as a pretext to do something you wanted to do against your political ally enemies.
We always want your biased opinion. That's the whole point here. McKay. We're out of time. You're going to be in Iowa, in New Hampshire, right.
I'm actually going to Alabama for the next Republican debate.
News Nation.
The nice folks over there have got that. So I get a chance to go down to Alabama. All over the.
So so we'll get back to us then because we want to see you in Iowa and New Hampshire. We've got a lot of campaign stuff to talk about in the next couple of weeks. Here Mick Malvanny, Happy Thanksgiving, Mick happy Turkey. I know they won't be talking about politics.
No politics in his house, naps.
What's wrong with my family? This is Bloomberg. Thanks for listening to the Sound On podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts, and you can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at one pm Eastern Time at Bloomberg dot com.