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Welcome to the Friday edition. Yeah, it is Friday of Bloomberg Sound On. We'll it be another working weekend in Washington. It will be for some and we're going to get to the speaker battle a little bit later on as we try to embrace the story of the day on this job's day. The headline on the terminal says, at all us hiring surges, bolstering case for another fedraidhike. Everybody
thought this was bad news. The minute it broke. Some still do, but not if you're Joe Biden, the President, speaking earlier from the White House with a good story to tell.
Heard me say before, I'm gonna keep saying that my dad had an expression, did joey at jobs about a lot more than the paycheck. It's about your dignity, It's about respect, It's about being a liquored kid in the eyes. Honey, it's going to be okay, and mean it well. Three hundred and thirty six thousand more Americans, if they have children, can say that to the children and mean it.
Yeah. Three hundred and thirty six thousand, the most since the start of the year. It blew expectations, making us wonder if any of these forecasts even matter. And it's got a lot of folks worried. Despite the relief we're seeing in the stock market, a lot of folks worried about interest rates and to what extent this might contribute to a recession. That's where we begin with Anna Wong, Bloomberg Economics chief economist, with us at the table here.
And it's great to see you. You've been quenching numbers on a lot of stuff here, and I want to ask you, as well as we anticipate news today from the UAW, how that auto strike might play into this. But this clearly raised some eyebrows. When you see a number like this blowing away estimates to the extent that it did, are you looking at it as good news or bad?
Well?
I think it's a very much a backward looking report because most of the upward positive surprises we've seen today is driven by lesion hospitality, and part of that is still the Beyonce effect, because don't forget that Beyonce had you know, I think fourteen concerts in September, and each of those concerts has like seventy thousand people in it, So that's still a lot of there's that, and that effect will go away in next month's report because actually
Beyonce's tour and ended in September. In North America, you're more Beyonce J.
Powell reason right.
And then on top of that, there's also manufacturing, which we saw an uptick in manufacturing. However, the UAW strikes would actually likely push that manufacturing line number negative in the next in the October report if the UAW strike lasts until next Friday, and it looks like it's going to.
Last next Friday.
I want to ask you about the numbers you crunched specifically on the strike, but when we do look at this broadly, your point is this is the last hot report. We're going to see a very different number next month. And I wonder to what extent the childcare cliff adds to that.
Well, I think the childcare cliff could affect the labor supply because we're heading into the fall season. This is where all the sickness diseases also happened flew and you know, if there's a child's care cliff, you know that that thing is expiring. On top of that, there's this influxive flu season, then we'll see women start dropping off the
labor supply. I mean, so far the last couple of months, a lot of good news is coming from prime age participation, particularly from women, and so that could affect how it looks. And of course there's the UAW strikes impact.
We're going to hear a little bit later on today from Sean Fame at the UAW. It is expected that he will not announce a breakthrough. And to your point, this will last likely at least until next Friday. Bloomberg Economics. Your analysis says this could mean as many as seven hundred thousand lost jobs when you consider the ancillary effects of these strikes. What did you say? It was five jobs for every striking worker, right right, So the.
Seven hundred figure is just assuming if it's a full blown strike, so involving one full shut down, yeah, full one hundred and fifty. But right now only twenty five thousand UW members are on strike. This billover effect potentially could affect one hundred thirty thousand workers. So you know, in nineteen ninety eight when we had the GM strikes, ninety two hundred workers walked off and the next month, a month later, the pair report report a one hundred
and fifty thousand impact from that. So this is why we think that the manufacturer line and the next job's report potentially would be negative.
I saw some folks retweeting your take from a year ago on a potential recession. Where are you now?
We are still thinking it's likely to be at the before the end of this year, before the end of yes. Look, look we saw even despite the very huge headline number, unemployment rate is still at three point eight percent. So all it takes is for unemployment rate to tick up to four point zero percent for the psalm's rule to be triggered. And that rule has been pretty accurate in identifying the start of recessions over the passage.
You were one hundred percent at one point. Where are you now?
That's the model. That's just one model. In terms of our holistic judgment, we had been at about seventy to eighty percent.
Are you there now?
We are still at seventy five?
Wow?
Reality check from Anna Wong. It's great to see you, Anna, Thank you in great work. Look for Anna Wong and her team on the terminal and at Bloomberg dot com. They do an amazing job at Bloomberg Economics. Now, I think Jason might make you feel a little bit better. Here check out the tweet from Jason Furman. We're going to go to Harvard Kennedy School to talk to him in a second.
Here.
First reaction to jobs numbers, shock, he says. Second reaction nervousness, further reflection. This could be quite good. Jason Furman, It's great to have you back on Bloomberg. We need you now after what Hannah Wong just told us. How are you interpreting this. You actually, of course spent time sharing Council of Economic Advisors in the White House. They're telling a good story today, but the narrative is that at some point they're going to be telling a scary story
about stubbornly high interest rates in a recession. What do you think?
Yeah, Look, I've been very nervous about the possibility of a soft landing, about inflation coming down. I remain nervous. We are not there yet. We've only had a couple months of data. But today's data fell for me on the positive side of the ledger as I assessed the economy, and what was particularly important to me was the you know, the wage numbers. The fact that they're slowing to me makes it look like this is a sustainable job market.
Amazing, So we can we can have a number like this, three hundred and thirty six thousand. We can blow the doors off with payrolls. But as long as wages don't begin to spiral, you're comfortable with that.
Yeah, And it's not just not beginning to spiral, they're really slowing. And you know, so the question is you see a lot of jobs. You don't know whether that was an increase in the supply of people wanting to work or the increase in the demand for workers. It looks like this was an increase in supply. I teach introductory economics, and the way you can tell the difference
between the two is what happens to the price. The price here is the wage, and so wage growth is about going at about a three and a half percent annual rate that is fully consistent with the FEDS and flow mandate. Now I want to see more wage data. I want to see data from different sources. I want to see if this holds up. But this looks to me like we're seeing labor supply increase, which is a wonderful thing to see because it isn't necessarily inflationary.
Well it is. I wonder how J. Powell interprets this. You've got a market now thinking, gosh, maybe something does happen in November. Maybe this is not what we thought. I wonder where you see the FED going and maybe the bond market doing its job for it already.
Yeah, exactly.
I think that last point is the most important one there, which is that the bar for hiking rates should be higher. Now long rates are more than fifty basis points above where they were. That's what actually matters for the economy that's doing a lot of work for them, and so I think it would take a it should at least, and I think probably will take a decent sized surprise to get them to hike again. I don't think today's report was enough because you have the wage number going
the opposite direction. I don't think we're going to see a really blowout core CPI later this month, probably more like point two than point three, and unlikely to be point four. We then get the ECI at the end of the month for employment costs. These data suggests that won't be very high either. So I just don't see what's going to get them to feel they need to lift off at the next meeting.
Wow, this is refreshingly optimistic. But Jason Furman, let me ask you about some of the outside factors that people are worried about right now. Some of them are due to Washington, the potential government shutdown. We don't know what the heck's going to happen there. We're told that lack of a speaker makes this potentially more likely. We've also got the childcare cliff that I asked Anna Wong about the expiration of these pandemic euro subsidies for childcare that
could create some noise in the job market. And then we've got an historic auto workers strike and we're going to find a little bit later on where that's going. When you put all these together, where are you on the idea of a recession this year or next.
Look, there's two threats to a soft landing. One is no landing where we continue to have inflation that remains. I think the biggest threat to a soft landing is that we just don't land at all. Inflation stays above three percent, and the FED at some point needs to come back and hike more. There's then the other threat to a soft landing, of course, which is a hard landing that you crash into a recession. I certainly think a recession is possible. I'm certainly nervous. I'm basically always
nervous about that possibility. But a lot of the individual items that people list to me are like looking for the keys under the lamppost, just because that's where the light is. Many of these are relatively small. You can measure them. They're sort of a tenth or two on GDP. I don't think any of the specific things like the student loan prepayments, et cetera, is nearly enough for a recession.
We're looking for the keys.
Oh what is enough for recession is something that we don't see. I mean, recessions usually come from the place you're not looking. And I don't quite know which place that I'm not looking right now that I should be.
Yeah, well, of course, this is the question that so many folks are asking. You know what it's like to be inside the White House or we'll talk later today with Jared Bernstein, who has your old job on the Council of Economic Advisors. If you're advising Joe Biden right now. He delivered a very optimistic speech this morning. He said, this is Bidenomics at work. This is not by accident.
Does that remain the refrain if we start going into a year in which a real downturn is possible and people are paying higher rates than they have in some cases in their lives.
Yeah.
I don't have message advice for the White House, and broadly, I don't know how much the message matters if inflation continues to come down and wages are out praising prices people will feel better. The economy goes into recession, people will feel worse. And there's not a whole lot the president can say that changes those underlying facts. What I do think isn't quite important, though, is you know, is
that things are volatile. Don't expect three hundred and thirty six thousand jobs a month for the rest of time. In fact, if we were creating one hundred thousand jobs a month for the rest of time, that would be a perfectly wonderful pace of job cras. And so I think there does need to be some preparing people that there's inevitably ups and.
Downs, you know, to that point. Lastly, Jason Furman, are we out of the business of being able to forecast here? I can't really remember the last time they nailed it. And there's still so much noise around here that you get a number like this, and you wonder if our slide rulers are still working.
Yeah, I mean, what's interesting to me is in the era of big data, we're not any better at doing this than we used to be. And you know, but it's a hard thing. There's about one hundred and fifty million jobs in our country. You're trying to guess this month it's one fifty million. This month, it's one fifty point two million. Tiny tiny errors in the level become huge errors in the change and the changes. Of course, what everyone is looking at.
Great to see you, Jason, don't be a stranger. Jason Furman back on Bloomberg, of course, Professor the Practice of Economic Policy at Harvard Kennedy School, Department of Economics at Harvard University. And yes he did share the Council of Economic Advisors in the Obama White House. We assemble our panel for a quick swing at job's day. Here glad to say Rick Davis and Genie Shanzina were both with us Bloomberg Politics contributors. Joe Biden woke up on the
right side of the bed today. He liked what he heard. He delivered the message. How long can he continue to do so?
You know, he has to continue to give the message. But he also has to be cognizant that people are not feeling positive about the economy. You look at the latest gallop numbers his approval rating on the economy. It's not where he needs it to be. So I was surprised he is still touting by the nomics. I think he needs to talk about the fact he understands why these good numbers are not resonating with people, and that has everything to do with inflation, interest rates, and the like.
We didn't hear that message today and that is worrisome to me.
Joe Biden says, this Job's report is no accident, Rick, it's Bidenomics in action. Would a recession also not be by accident?
Yeah, I think that he's going to own this economy. He does already.
I mean, his numbers on the economy are just horrific in the middle to low thirties.
He's got to do something to get him up.
I'm not sure feeling your pain, as Genie suggests, is going to get him anywhere.
The American public they want to see action.
And if this is good news today, if the FED increases rates as a result of it, you know that backfires on him. So he's got to be very cautious, is how he sticks his neck out on economy.
We're going to cover a lot with Rick and Jeanie today. It's not just jobs today, it's also the fight for the speakers gaveled in the House and now talk of a meeting next month between Presidents Biden and she It's all coming up this hour on the fastest show in politics. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. This is Bloomberg.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com.
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So the revolution will not be televised. I thought we had a headline here. I was looking forward to this debate. Now apparently canceled the speakers debate, not the one behind closed doors, the one that was supposed to go on Fox News. We woke up to the headline today Brett Bears coming down. We're going to have a big old debate between Steve Scalise and Jim Jordan. CNN now reporting
it's off. Scalise first city would not participate. Now we understand Scalise and Jordan talked this, according to CNN and agreed that it would not be wise. Well, I guess they'll do that behind closed doors. And we still don't know exactly when the public election will take place in the House Chamber, because I guess they're going to do
a vote first behind closed door. It's getting a little bit difficult to tell how this is all going to go down next week, but not a lot of people seem to think there's going to be a new speaker in place by next Wednesday. Again, Steve Scalise, Jim Jordan, were waiting on Kevin Hearn, who says he's thinking about it, and before we bring in Rick and Jennie. I'm really taken today by comments from Liz Cheney. You remember Liz Cheney, who was thrown out of the Republican conference in the House.
She's been talking about Jim Jordan, someone she knew well and worked with. This takes a minute. Listened to her in an address yesterday when she decided to weigh in, remembering that Donald Trump has endorsed Jim Jordan. You knew Liz Janey wasn't going to go there.
Jim Jordan knew more about what Donald Trump had planned for January sixth than any other member of the House of Representatives. Jim Jordan was involved, was part of the conspiracy in which Donald Trump was engaged as he attempted to overturn the election.
She goes on to talk about the role that he played that day in helping Donald Trump try to reach his goals. That may are not factor into this decision, but it's something worth hearing. As we reassembled our panel, Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano, of course, with us here on a Friday Bloomberg Politics contributors. I'll start with you here, Rick. I know Liz Cheney's words don't mean a lot to the Republican caucus in the House, at least at this point.
Maybe it does to some of them, but she was unceremoniously stripped of her leadership position and of course lost a primary election. So I guess I'll advance to what we now know, and that is discord and on again, off again debate. This is not a good look for the Republican House. How's it going to go next week?
Yeah?
Look, I thought your introduction was spot on, Joe. We may not know until Thursday what the caucus is even willing to endorse. Remember the processes, these candidates were supposed to basically make a presentation on Tuesday, which is why this thing on Monday got canceled. It was supposed to be you know, Brett Baer interview with the candidates, and Jim Jordan said and Scalise agreed that it was inappropriate to have that public look debate prior to actually putting
themselves in front of their caucus. And and I think that was a very wise decision. So anyway, Uh, everybody I've talked to thinks it will take multiple ballots within the caucus to come up with a caucus recommendation. And that's just a that's just to put a name into nomination from the Republican caucus. Remember then anybody can make nominations from the floor, which happened repeatedly during the fifteen
rounds of voting, you know, when when Kevin McCarthy was elected. So, uh, this this is going to be a process that we'll be talking about throughout the week.
Uh, you got to kind of hope that that.
That by Thursday close of business and that's you know, midnight, by these standards, that they come up with a Speaker of the House. But it's going to be a painful and ugly process. It's been a painful and ugly process, and and and there's no indication that at this stage anybody's got enough momentum to really even come close to winning on an early ballot.
We were talking this time yesterday about the possibility of Donald Trump coming to town. Reports said that he was considering coming here to address Republican members on this very issue. Some suggested he might even want to be temporary speaker himself, and based on John Carl's reporting today, that was not that far fetched. But let's deal with reality. Whether he's actually going to arrive in town because he decided to
endorse Jim Jordan. There's a thought that that was his decision instead of coming here to get involved, you kick out an endorsement. We asked Byron Donald's about this last night. Trump Ally, Congressman, a Republican from Florida. Here's what he said.
It's possible. I did speak with him this morning. It came up, but nothing was conclusive. It's possible he could come up here on Tuesday. Look, I think, first of all, Donald Trump is way ahead in our primary process to be the Republican nominee, depending on the state, fifty points ahead. But his smallest lead in any of these polls is twenty points he's focused on becoming our nominee to become the next president.
All right, So we're thinking maybe not so much after talking to Byron Donald's genie. Does the Jim Jordan endorsement, though, make a difference?
It probably will with some members of this Republican caucus. I mean, he is the leader of the Republican Party. He has endorsed Jim Jordan. But let's just go back for a minute to what Liz Cheney was saying, and it's so important the clip you played days after the January sixth insurrection. In one of his last acts as president, Donald Trump took Jim Jordan into a closed room and awarded him the Medal of Freedom after he, as Chaney noted, knew more about what was happening on January sixth than
anyone else. He receives the nation's highest civilian honor from this president who was under an impeachment inquiry at the time for his acts and is now indicted for those same acts. That is who the Republicans are seriously considering turning over the second in line to the presidency and the leader of their party in the House of Representatives,
Number one, number two. What world are we living in that Donald Trump ninety six indictments, leading candidate for the Republican Party has now thought seriously, as have our members of Congress, that he may also add to his list of things to do Speaker of the House. It was apparently campaign insiders who decided we better walk that back because we have jobs trying to get this dialected president. I mean, this is chaotic and insanity to a level
you cannot wrap your head around. All of these things. Make people say, good gosh, let me wake up and this all be over with because it is insane. And by the way, top it off, we're facing another R. They will not be able to get those appropriations bills done, So another R to take us through.
Christ two questions, Rick number one. Smart move to cancel the debate. I mean, this tell advised on Fox could have been quite the spectacle. And too is anyone in the conference in the Republican Conference listening to Liz Channey.
Last first, Uh, Liz Cheney still has quite a bit of influence with you know, the more mainstream Republicans in the caucus. And and and yeah, Jim Jordan was sort of a co conspirator with a lot of the uh Freedom caucus members to try and create disarray on the floor during the electoral vote count. Absolutely, and he should
pay a price for that. And and so that's all part of this crazy mix that makes it very difficult to actually see a pathway to any of these people actually getting you know, ultimately elected, uh In in the
speaker's job. I mean, I think this, and I think we'll continuously here all through the weekend and on Sunday shows other Republicans from both in the chamber and outside, alumni and others weighing in on this because I think people see this as a tipping point for the caucus, and it's not totally clear right now that either candidate really takes you in a different direction, frankly than Kevin
McCarthy was headed in to begin with. I mean, like, what's Tim Jordan going to get from that caucus that Kevin McCarthy didn't get. So it's a pretty crazy time. I think Genie very accurately described just how wacky this all is, and and all of it manures to the benefit of Democrats. There is no upside to any of this conversation going on for Republican prospects in the two thousand and four election.
You have it from one of the most important Republican strategists in the country, Rick Davis GD shanz in no great conversation. If you're not with us on YouTube, you will not be as jealous as the rest of us of Rick's office or his dog. Search Bloomberg Global News. We've got the cameras lit and we'll meet you in here with more ahead on this idea. Yes, see this idea of Joe Biden meeting with President Sheet.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts.
So a lot of talk today about the big meeting finally happening. It's been since last November since the Chinese spy balloon, but Joe Biden and President she have had a meeting, and it's apparently very likely that this is going to happen next month here in the US. Next month is when the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation APAX summit takes place, and that's apparently where this would come together.
Beijing has not signed off on this yet, but reports, including what we're hearing at Bloomberg here, suggests that it is likely apak. By the way, November eleventh to seventeenth, when the government's going to shut down, we'll see about that. Let's assemble our panel once again. Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano are back in Bloomberg Politics contributors. Jeanie. The President was asked about this today. He didn't have much to say about it. This is when he addressed reporters about
the jobs report. Give us a listen.
One of the.
Prospects for a meeting between you and president of China and San Francisco next morn.
There is no such meeting set up, but it is a possibility.
Okay. That was literally his entire answer, Genie, should this meeting? Will this meeting happen?
You know, I think I We hope it does, and we know that both sides are working on it, but there have been no firm commitments. One of the things we hear is that Ji Jinping is concerned, obviously about the domestic situation in China, also about any profit provocations that the US engages in which embarrass him prior to or during the meeting, and so whether the US is willing to make commitments to ensure this meeting happens is unclear.
But what does seem clear is that if the meeting takes place, a lot of it is going to be optics and not necessarily substantive. For Biden, it's going to be to a domestic audience looking at twenty twenty four, and the same thing for Jijinping, who's got to shore up his own domestic support and base given all the challenges he faces over there. So a lot to be
considered and we'll have to wait and see. But as you mentioned, the timing also fascinating because it runs right up against another potential shutdown or a cr if the Congress can get there.
That's the truth. China's Foreign Minister Wang ye Rick said the US should quote create more favorable conditions for a smooth APEC meeting. I'm guessing they would not include a government shutdown. If this is for a domestic audience. How does that look when Joe Biden gets on an airplane lies to San Francisco when they're hashing out details of a budget here in the US. I don't know.
There's there's an argument to be made that if you could shut the government down for a week while a decent meeting takes place, it might be the best thing that ever happened for diplomatic relations between China and the US. But I'm not sure we, you know, have much to
gain from this meeting. China's kind of on its back when it comes to its own economic situation, but also diplomatic political You know, their foreign minister disappeared for a little while and then find out that he's been resigned and replaced by his predecessor. The rocket commander of China and the military disappeared one day, and then they replaced the defense minister for coruption. I mean like this, Their
cabinet is a mess. I mean, honestly, you know, if we knew more about what was going on there, we might think we might have it better off.
So the reality is Genie's right.
We we ought to have a better dialogue going on with Chinese, but we we should not romance emphasize the notion that somehow we have too much in common with them.
These days, we are in a.
Full up Cold War two, and this will be one of the very first meetings since we've really entered that phase.
Start breaking the ice here. Maybe Genie I took a look. It was back in June June twenty first the dictator remark, Remember this was at a fundraiser. Joe Biden referred to President she as a dictator. How does this meeting go when that's the baseline.
Yeah, it sounds like it might be a little bit icy, But the reality is these two have known each other, as Joe Biden says, awful lot, for a long time. They have met several times, you know, not necessarily as President Biden. He has met with him previously in his other positions. So they do know each other, and I think they're both seasoned enough to be able to do this.
The reality though, is, let's not forget there's another summit that may happen before this one, if it does happen, and that would be Vladimir pooh In taking a chance of flying out of Moscow and flying over to Beijing. And that is going to be another really important thing to watch, because is Joe Biden going to meet with Jijinping if he does meet with Putmin in Beijing, depending on how that turns out, Given everything going on here and in Eastern Europe and Western Europe as it pertains
to Ukraine, amongst many other things. So it's going to be fascinating because if these both go forward. These summits are almost back to back, and again we don't know yet it they'll happen, but they are two that would have in you know, the first one, and have a key impact on the second one if it occurs.
Yeah. Very interesting to your point though, Rick, these these may not be the most productive of meetings. I guess you have to start somewhere, But I wonder what the takeaway would be. You see, Joe Biden meets with President she and then a week later a cabinet official goes to Taiwan and the whole thing's off again. Yeah.
Look, I mean, you know, we're we're in Uff's place with our relationship there, and and and and and frankly, uh, you know, we're doing what we need to do to shore up our defenses in the Pacific, uh, to rearm and uh you know, uh prepare Taiwan for you know, a potential attack by the Chinese, because that's what the Chinese have been signaling. I mean, Gigimping got elected his third term on the platform that he would reunite by
force or by politics Taiwan. Uh, you know, uh, And so give me that term of office, give me that historic extra term, and I will do this. So uh, you know, you can't have a conversation with Jijingping right now unless you start it with Taiwan. And that's probably the last thing that that that he wants to talk to the US about.
Well, lastly, then, Jennie, in our remaining moment here, if this is to a domestic audience, is this going to be performative for Joe Biden. Does he go there and you know, wag his finger and President she his face to get some some boost in the pulls.
Yeah, he it is going to be performative. How he handles it, I'm not sure, but it will be performative. I have one thing or two things we could ask of the China in terms of commitments, stop hacking, stop stealing IP That would be a good start, let alone the issues involving Taiwan. So there's a lot to talk about that he could wag his finger about.
That's a good start. I hope the White House is listening to Genie Shanzano and stop messing with the iPhone so we don't have to keep talking about this. I'm Joel Matthew and Washington with Rick Davis and Genie Shanzano.
You're listening to The Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch the program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and.
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Nice to see you, Happy Friday. Indeed, I think it's been a seven day week already, and we'll see what happens this weekend, of course, but a lot to talk about on this job's day, which actually is somewhat refreshing to have a different thing to discuss than the speaker's race. But we're we're about to dig into that heavily before we do, though, the President talked about it today. We had Jason Ferman on last Hour and it's like this good news, bad news situation. I'm not sure where we are.
You saw Jason Ferman tweeting earlier. It's his reaction started with shock, the nervousness. Then hey, this actually isn't that bad, and the stock market seems to be doing the same thing.
Yeah, I mean, okay, two things. Really we're looking at in jobs reports now right, The headline figure three hundred and thirty six doors off. It's just kind of insane. Honestly, it blew past every single estimate out there, and that's something President Bliden is flexing. Obviously, that is a number that works for him. But then the wage growth was actually light, just two tens of percent gain in wages hourly month on month, which is maybe not as inflationary, right,
So it is kind of like this win win. And while the market freaked out at that headline payroll's number initially, I think maybe it realized that the inflation read wasn't so bad, so maybe don't freak out as much.
That's that was Jason Furman's think piece earlier. We can keep growing like crazy as long as wages don't spiral. Yeah, maybe the markets will feel that way. But Anna Wong also told us next month and I can look like this, we're about to go off a cliff when it comes to jobs. So you know, we're waiting for an update from the UAW and that's going to play into this too.
Absolutely. Bloomberg Economics, Anawong and the team says, if all one hundred and fifty thousand UAW workers eventually go on strike, it could mean the loss of seven hundred and sixty thousand because of all those ripple secondary effects.
Imagine five jobs lost for every striking worker. That's what that cooks down to. And it really makes us realize and remember how much ancillary business is supported by one hundred percent all of these folks who are potentially going to be on a picket line. I mentioned. The President talked about this earlier before we bring in Lisa Camuso Miller. He was taking a victory lap. He talked about the always the line his dad told him about the dignity
of having a job. And then they got to the numbers.
The unemployment rate I stayed below four percent for twenty months in a row, the longest stretch in fifty years. We've achieved a seventy year low and unemployment rate for women, record lows and unemployment for African Americans and Hispanic workers and people with disabilities, folks who have been left behind and previous recoveries have left behind for too long. We have the highest share of working age Americans in the workforce in twenty years.
So this is a pretty good story for him to tell. He says, by the way, that's no accident. That's Bidenomics. But if the recession hits, that also wouldn't be an accident.
Right, Timing is everything.
Yeah, Furman said that too. They can't thund the scale at the White House. There's no advice for the president here. You're either going to have a bad bit of timing, or maybe, as Anna Wong says, that recession happens at the end of this year and he's in the clear for a campaign cycle for all of these are possible.
Perhaps, And of course he's also speaking at the White House at a time where there's other tumultuous things happening in the economy to strike. Obviously, he's very supportive of the UAW and what they are doing, but also could be looking down the barrel of another government shutdown potentially come November seventeenth, with the discord you're seeing in the House of Representatives at the moment.
Yeah, So I was just talking to Rick and Genie about this. November seventeen. You just said the date that's when he might be in San Francisco meeting with President She at the Apex Efference. So are you telling me he's going to get on a plane leave Washington in the middle of that to go meet with a foreign leader. They're going to have to maybe think about that.
Well, remember when he got on a plane in the middle of the debt ceiling.
Absolutely true abroad and we asked that question. Yet it depends. I guess how important this meeting is. You leave for a day. It shouldn't be that big of a thing. But it's just it's all perception. So the President was asked about the speaker's battle. You're not going to walk into a room full of reporters at the White House and not have this come up. I will tell you, Kayley Again, he seemed exhausted today. I know that this is something that some folks are concerned about. He paused
a number of times, lengthy pauses thinking. She even said at one point, I need to get the words right. But he did speak to the speaker.
Look, whomever the House speaker is, I'm going to try to work with they control half the Congress and is you're going to try to work with him. There some people I imagine it could be easy to work with than others. But whoever the speaker is, I'll try.
To work with.
I think he's talking about Jim Jordan there. Maybe not as easy as Steve Scalise. Perhaps I don't know. I can't wait to hear what Lisa Kamosa Miller has in mind. Think of how much has changed since we talked to Lisa, like five minutes ago. We have an endorsement Lisa, welcome back from Donald Trump. We have an on again now off again televised debate apparently being scheduled between Scalise and Jordan. By the way, Trump is backing Jim Jordan and might
even show up on Tuesday. According to our conversation yesterday with Byron Donald's is this getting more chaotic with time?
You know? I think there's two tracks in the speaker's race, and this comes from conversations I've had over the course of the last twenty four hours. The Jim Jordan factor
is definitely interesting. He's never been in leadership in terms of like being the speakers, sweet or any of those areas, so folks are curious about him, but also still very wary, especially because of his close ties to Trump, but he's having conversations with all of the right organizations in terms of like Main Street and Freedom Caucus and all of the other factors inside of the House. The other factor here, and it does feel like Jordan right now, momentum is
on his side, no question. But the fact that Steve Sclbies and Tom Emmer have teamed up together on a ticket, the two of them are so well liked right now, if I had to guess, two hundred and eighteen votes is definitely more favorable in that camp than it is Jim Jordan. Now, you know, and I know that five minutes from now that could all change, But that is what we're seeing and what we're hearing right now from Capitol Hill.
Well, of course, there's another name in the mix as well who hasn't decided either way whether or not to formally toss his hat in the ring, Lisa, and that's Congressman Kevin Hearn. He actually posted on X earlier today, so he still hasn't made a decision on his candidacy for speaker, but he went on to say he's not going to participate in the debate. I think this is one of the contributing factors to that now kind of
imploding as an idea. He went on though, to say, we need to make this decision as a conference, not on TV. The Republican Conference needs a family discussion. Lisa, it's really hard to see the Republican Conference right now as a family.
I mean, I don't know about your family, but dysfunction definitely is part of the family situation in the world. But this family needs like therapy and they need a lot of work. I will say this though, I think Hearn is not a real candidate. I think McHenry is definitely not a real candidate. I think that the two candidates that are emerging right now and for sure will be the two are Jordan and Scalise. And the conference hates the idea about a televised debate because it makes
this more of a circus. This already is super embarrassing. It's not terribly helpful. Last time we did this was in nineteen ten. Guess what in nineteen twelve, the Republicans lost control of the House. If we keep it up and we keep looking like petulant toddlers, the voters are going to respond. So we have work to do. And by the way, November seventeenth is like a minute away. We have got to fund the government. This stopped all momentum.
After the CR passed. There were bills that were in the process that were going to get past appropriations bills for the first time ever. We were making strides, the conference was working together well, and then all of a sudden, this motion to vacate happens. Kevin McCarthy is out and we are tossed into chaos again. So this alone has stopped that momentum, and now we look get another shutdown, and this one I think could be worse.
We should mention the headlines that you just put in front of me here Kaylee, while we're talking to Lisa Miller, the UAW it looks like is going to be at least maintaining, if not escalating strikes against GM, but not Ford in Staalantis. We're still waiting to hear from Sean Fain on this.
Yeah, this is according to people familiar with the matter who have spoken to our colleagues here at Bloomberg. But remember Ford in Stalantis each already have been spared at one time. GM has not been spared any escalation.
Thus far mercy from Mary Bara.
None at all. And remember GM said earlier this week this strike has already cost them two hundred million dollars. They were securing a six billion dollar line of credit to help protect themselves, and it looks like they may get hit a little harder. According to our reporting, UAW is considering a plan to strike the GMSUV plant in Arlington, Texas. So, of course we'll continue to follow this as Sean Fain starts his live stream.
There we go to Texas potentially next. I appreciate that, Kaylee. We'll let you know, keep your eyes on the terminal. The headlines will let you know what's going on with this story. Obviously, as we spent some time with Lisa Camuso Miller, you mentioned the family. I thought there were five families. Wasn't that the whole narrative of the Republican Ledhouse. It's who can navigate the five families? Lisa Camusa Miller, you're from New Jersey. You get this.
I do, I do, I do, But also this, this is more than five families.
It's hard to keep track.
What's interesting to me is there's been a lot of reporting about the various blocks. Right, So, there was discussion yesterday in the media about how Congressman Jordan had gone to the Texas Delegation and had gone to the Main Street Coalition and had gone to and Scalice obviously is doing the same. He's on the phone, he's working the phones. Nobody knows how to do that better than him and Tom Emmer. But what is different now is that those
block used to vote all together. They used to be like they would move as one, and that is no longer the case. So going to the Texas Delegation is very smart because it's a huge chunk of members and a huge block. But they'll be split. They'll be fifty to fifty. I mean half will go to Scalise and half will go to Jordan. It will not be a full block of voters. And that's what's different here is that this is not the same race and it's not
the same fight. But I think the one thing that makes the conference look smart and strategic is that they not go to the floor before they know who has two hundred and eighteen votes, because we cannot have another repeat of what we saw in the beginning of the year. We have to get back to work.
Yeah, I don't think anyone is eager to go through another fifteen rounds and four days of trying to get someone the gavel. But it raises the question, Lisa, just how long it's going to take before this gets to the floor. I mean, we could be looking at weeks and to your point, we are up against a deadline. That November seventeen deadline is like basic just a second away. Can you also just kind of talk about the influence of former President Trump here? As Joe mentioned Jim Jordan
endorsed by the former president. Last night, Trump was teasing the idea of coming to Capitol Hill next week. We'll see if it happens, but like, how much influence does he have on the conference at this point?
This is a bit of a gamble, I think for the president and for the former president. And here's why. I know that those eight that all voted together against Kevin McCarthy are with likely with Trump, but there is a whole section of moderates that are not. And can you imagine how embarrassing this would be if this was
another loss for the president. This, to me is the narrative that so many of those other candidates that have been in those candidate forums the debates have been pointing to is that Donald Trump has a record of losing, and there's one thing that Republicans really want in twenty four and that's to win. So this alone could very well be a litmus test for how next November could look.
I know we're seeing numbers, and I know Trump is the front runner right now, but this is yet another It's yet another cut in the erosion of his candidacy, and it adds to the narrative that he's a loser. So that alone is interesting to me. I do think it helps though, because I think that because he's the front runner, he's raising the most money. People see that too as an advantage. So right now, Kailee, I'm not sure all the way if it's going to be helpful
or hurtful. But I do think that when that was announced yesterday that he was with Jordan, that that really was that really set his momentum on course for success, because it's good positive news inside the conference that the president's going to be the former president's going to be with him if he's the speaker. But the other piece of this that doesn't ever get mentioned is that he's not terribly loyal. I mean, we remember how he talked
about the former speaker, right, and he said nothing. When the speaker was about to be voted out, he never spoke up. I mean, his loyalty is to himself and himself alone, and that I think is the thing that people inside the Republican Conference see and they see as a liability. I think they want to be with people like Tom Emmer. Put every single one of those House Republicans in their seats. I mean, he understands the districts. He nobody is a better collaborator, and no one delivered
the past. All the wins that we gave to Kevin McCarthy a speaker came because Tom Emmer knows how to build and rally around an issue, and that is that's politics tactically that works well.
I'd you like to have Lisa Kamussa Miller call you a loser on Bloomberg. That's gotta be an experience, Lisa. Great to see you. Thank you, the former communications director for the RNC, bringing experience in wisdom.
As always, you're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on Catch the program live weekdays at one eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the tune in app, Bloomberg dot com and.
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Today's the day. Fat Bear Week. One of the casualties that could have come from a government shutdown which didn't end up happening lest weekend as many thought, including us, One of the casualties would have been Fat Bear Week.
Would have been a travesty.
Because you know, they were to close the parks. And it's the National Park Service I believe that runs this Fat Bear Week competition. It's basically like a reality.
Show for fat bears.
Did you know that's a big bear right there. Adult male bears average between seven and nine hundred pounds middle of the summer. By this time they can top twelve hundred pounds as they prepare for hibernation. And this is an online contest. Somebody pick your favorite fat bear. Yes, seven four seven I think was the name of the bear that won last year.
It was he tipped the scales at an estimated fourteen hundred pounds.
Wow.
I encourage all of our listeners to go google who is the fattest bear? You will see some.
Picture some very fully impressive, very fat bear four three five Holly. Another one large adult female bear the park Service website compares to a lightly toasted marshmallow in both color and shape. It's like a fat bear four to three six Holly this time of year is very fat with grizzled blonde fur. It's kind of like a watching the Kennel Club Dog Show. Just really fat bear is running around. Did you pick one?
Producer Brendan writes in, if I get hugged by a fat bear, it might be my last hug.
That's because he was watching cocaine.
Uh.
Matt Miller was pretty up on Fat Bear Week as well. Are you in touch with him on this? Because I think he listens to the show. I think he's listening right now.
It's probably only a matter of seconds before he writes in, he probably already voted for the fattest bear. I'm gonna go do that now.
For eighty otis apparently running hot here in the competition as he pursues one last tasty morsel before all right, we're gonna go away. Now, we're gonna go away. I'm Joe Matthew with Kayley Lines. I'll meet you on balance of power. Indeed, thanks for listening to the Sound on podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. And you can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at one pm Eastern Time at Bloomberg dot com