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You Happy Friday, Charlie. The earthquake was no lie, huh.
You guys got four point eight indeed, and I want to know what did you think it was a truck going buyer?
Did you actually all the above?
Now, first of all, just to be clear, did you guys feel it in Washington?
Not at all, although I was surprised to see this stoppage at b Wy.
Yeah, and that probably has to do with the fact that you want to halt the planes there so they're not flying to New York area airports. But it was funny because on Third Avenue here in New York City, I thought that it could have been a truck. My office is right up against Third Avenue, or I thought it could have been a subway or somebody in the office rolling equipment around. But I watched my microphone just shaking for about thirty seconds.
How about that? Well, I'm glad.
Everybody's all right. It's the kind of thing that will rally and keep you talking through the day. I mean, look, is the strongest earthquake in one hundred and forty years. I guess that's saying something in New York, Charlie, stay safe for crying out loud to find a doorway. Here in Washington, the earth did not shake today, although we did get jobs data that might have made you think so around eight thirty in the morning. By the way, I should mention before we pivot the jobs here, Mayor
Eric Adam is going to be talking soon. We will bring you live remarks from the Mayor when he tells us it's time to go here this hour part of our coverage that we always promise you on Bloomberg Radio, on the satellite, and on YouTube.
So how about these numbers. This is remarkable.
Payrolls up by the most at almost a year, three hundred and three thousand. We talked to Molly Smith just twenty four hours ago about a potential two hundred thousand. Reading Now, this makes for a great statement from the White House. Right, Bidenomics is working bottom up, middle out strongest jobs numbers that even Wall Street can't seem to predict. The problem is the potential for the Fed to just
keep interest rates ever higher, ever longer. And that's where we start our conversation today with Lindsay Owens.
Have been looking forward to this.
She's executive director of the Groundwork Collaborative, having spent time as senior economic policy advisor to Senator Elizabeth Warren. It is this unique perspective that I'm interested in today. Lindsay, thank you for being with us. It's good to have you on Bloomberg. If I have to interrupt us because
of Eric Adams, forgive me in advance here. I'm really curious to know what you think about this job market that sure looks like a runaway train despite an historic series of interest rate hikes that many progressive Democrats thought would destroy the job market. How would you describe this moment we're in.
I mean, today's report was really incredible. There is really no way to characterize this job's market than to say it's incredibly strong. Right, three hundred and three thousand jobs created, the labor force participation rate increasing, folks coming in off the sidelines, wages growing, wages beating prices on the year, and the unemployment rate ticking down again. We've now had well over two years of unemployment below four percent. I think what we're seeing here is a full employment economy.
And how do you get a full employment economy. You get a full employment economy with good fiscal policy and strong investment in the American economy. And that's what Congress has done, and that's what President Biden has done over the last four years. We got those great investments in the American Rescue Plan, keeping money in folks pockets, helping them weather the worst of the pandemic and be ready
to come back to work when the economy reopened. And we've seen additional investments in supply and productive capacity which have helped this economy Expand don't forget GDP is growing. The economy is expanding because of those investments and because the American worker is in a strong place and has purchasing power.
Well, so is J. Powell the maestro in this case?
Or is there still time for high interest rates to damage this market? We've got people talking about now maybe no.
Cuts this year.
Yeah. I think you're asking a really important question, which is are is inflation coming down because of Chair pal and the Fed or despite Chair pal and the FED, this isn't a question that I think we can answer definitively today, but I would suggest we do have some illustrative evidence. So the first thing we know about how rate hikes are supposed to cool inflation, is they cool demand, which means they make us all a little poorer. I think what we're seeing in the labor market is that
there is not a sign of demand destruction. We don't have a high unemployment, we don't have workers seeing you know, slower wage growth or being laid off. So I think there's there's not great evidence that this is a sort of pal Maestro story. Instead, I think we're starting to see evidence that this is really a supply expansion story in some of the places where you know, costs are
coming down, quantities are going up. So I think the question, you know, which will take a little longer to unwind, is whether or not this really is a supply expansion story and not a demand destruction story. And you know, if it is a supply expansion story, then I think the FED has actually room to come off these punishingly high interest rates and to start, you know, potentially cutting sooner than they have suggested, Yeah.
Well, of course, as Jpell would tell you, it's the work that they've done with the FED, the reason why families are able to go forward without higher inflation.
This is really something though.
The unemployment rate down to three point eight percent, participation is up there. One exception, Lindsay, I want to ask you about that's worth discussing here the black jobless rate skyrocketing in March here to six point four percent. This is a political problem for Joe Biden, it's an economic problem as well.
What does he do about it?
Yeah, I mean, look, I'd be a little concerned about indexing on one month of that number. In general, what we should see in a full employment economy and a labor market this strong is actually a real strengthening of the labor market for black workers, for women, for older workers, for workers with maybe criminal records or spottier work histories. When the labor market tightens up, that's usually when workers who employers might discriminate against in sort of looser labor
market conditions bring folks off the sidelines. And so it is a little surprising to me to see that number tick up, And you know, I'd want to see a couple more month of data.
Yeah, the trend is is pretty clear though, even when you look at the three month average, which which removes a lot of that volatility. To your point, we're at five point eight percent from five point four percent.
Where should that number be?
Yeah, I would, I mean, I would expect that number to be considerably lower. Historically, we see, you know, a black white unemployment gap of about two to one, and then when the labor market is a bit tighter, we see that we see that gap decline.
Lindsay Owens, thank you for being with us from the Groundwork Collaborative.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Can just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then roud Oto with a Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
I am Kayley Liones in Washington alongside Joe Matthew on Bloomberg Television and Radio and of course Joe domestically. Jobs Day always a big deal and something that President Biden can take a victory lap on, as we've now crossed fifteen million jobs created I saw that under his administration, but he's not having as much ease with everything else, including the geopolitical situation and the relationship he is trying to navigate with Benjamin Etnia who in the Israeli government.
Well, that's for sure, and I got a lot more complicated this week with the missile strikes against World's Central Kitchen.
That really seemed to change the tenor of the conversation as he met yesterday with Benjamin Eetniah, who interesting though by the end of the day, Kaylee, we were talking about at least one of the gates being opened into Gaza to allow AID to allow food trucks to get in, and that might be the beginning of a cascade, which, by the way, Benjamin Ettia, who is being criticized for from his right in Israel.
Facing domestic pressures of his own. We actually spoke earlier today with Cindy McCain, the executive director of the United Nations World Food Program. We did ask her about that eras crossing being open, but we began with what Joe was alluding to the deaths of seven World Central Kitchen AID workers earlier this week, and whether or not that meant the World Food Program would rethink its own operations in Gaza. This is what she told us.
WP has no intention of pausing right now at all. We are there, We're staying in and we need obviously, as you know, to what occurred today, we hopefully will have the ability to get more trucks in and more aid in as a result of the changes that are being made, we'll see.
The headlines this week have been sobering, Director, as you well know, not only World Central Kitchen, the UN says one hundred and sixty five relief workers have been killed in this conflict, making it the deadliest ever for relief workers. You've described the impossible task in your words, of getting trucks, particularly to the north, to those who need food in Gaza.
I'm wondering what you hear from Israel when they turn your trucks around, what the communication is like, and how do they justify not letting you in.
Well, first of all, my heart goes out to World Central Kitchen. I know exactly how that feels, because I've lost people on my watch too, and so I pray for them every day, and I pray for Jose's strength and all this It's been a frustrating go for us, because it's been start and stop and start and stop. We've had Sometimes we can get some a few trucks in. Sometimes we can't. Sometimes we're given permission and not let go. There's no organization or coordination to it, and it's still
too little. What we need and hopefully this will give it to us is more access. Right now, there's one point one million people who are starving to death. Famine is eminent. So it is imperative that we get as many trucks as possible north, especially to be able to stave off this famine. And we've got to do it now. We can't wait. The waiting has got to be done. We've got to get this going. It's too desperate not to.
What we have seen Israel make some changes is you've alluded to. Just in the last twenty four hours, the Era's border crossing has now been opened. How immediate will the impact of that opening be. How much further will that go to getting you to scale in terms of the distribution you are attempting to achieve.
Well, I'm hopeful it will help for this reason, because you know, there's a great deal of prioritization that takes place and a lot of you know, the Israelis X ray everything and they make sure that their trucks only are carrying food on board, which I understand, but we have to be able to do that in a much more efficient fashion and in a faster fashion. Things are held up. The gates have to be left open longer.
They can't leave them open from eight to six or eight to five, whatever it is, and then randomly close them when they feel like it. This is it's too important, and more importantly being having more access internally. We have been using the fence road is what we call it, along the eastern border of Gaza, and as you know, there's a middle road and a beach road as well.
All these routes need to be safe, they need to be unfettered, and we need to be able to travel on them and a safe and in a safe fashion, but also remembering our humanitarian principles along the way and deliver food in a principal fashion.
Can we put a finer point on this, Director McCain, If you're getting one one hundredth of the food in that's needed, I believe that's what your most recent measurement was. Is it Israel or Hamas that's blocking your trucks.
Well, Israel is in charge, so it's it's Israel's blocking the trucks or has been blocking the trucks. So I mean with that it's their checkpoints where we get turned around. And yes, there have been some instances where the trucks were looted, where we got stuck in a crowd, where things were not vetted properly for us, and tragedies occurred as a result of that, and we don't want any more of that. Our whole goal is to get food in feed people as fast as we possibly can.
Well, as you say, Director that you're being stopped at checkpoints, so it's what I would believe would be IDF personnel that are actually manning those checkpoints. Do you see a breakdown and inconsistency with the communication you're getting at the higher levels of the Israeli government as to what you should be able to do versus what's actually happening on the ground. Who is it directly that you communicate with and are they saying the same things?
It all ends well, we have our obviously have our contacts within COCAT and within the IDEF as well as the political side of it. All those all of those bodies play at play a part of this. In many ways they've been they've been helpful. In a lot of ways they haven't been. So what we are asking for is consistency and the unfettered access, as I said, and the ability to move in through more not more gates,
but ports. Also, as I mentioned earlier, the port of Ashtot is extremely important to being able to deliver food to the North.
There are many other areas around the world. I know the program is working in that we want to ask you about Director McCain, but in terms of Gaza finally knowing that the World Food Kitchen has stopped its deliveries and narrow another group has as well, can the World Food Program fill the gap left by those departures.
We listen, it's not about filling the gap. We need everybody in there. But yes, if you're asking we can get to scale, yes we can. Right now we have food a mass outside the gates and on the border, enough to feed one point one million people for three months. We need to get in. So it's not about any anybody taking anybody's spot or anything like that. We all work together in a good way. We need to get in, We need to get it now.
Pragmatic take from Cindy McCain, now the executive director of the UN's.
World Food Program.
I'm Joe Matthew and Washington alongside Kaylee Lines. She was in Rome for that conversation. Kaylee marking her first year in what is a much more difficult and complex job, and she had as ambassador to the Vatican. Really interesting to hear her deal with reality though. This is somebody who's on the phone with the stakeholders, not armchair quarterbacking from the US.
Absolutely, and as you mentioned, she's now a year in two her tenure as director of this program, almost exactly half of that has been marked by conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. She took the helm on April fifth of twenty twenty three, and we all know what happened by October seventh and everything that has happened since.
And of course it seems that there has been a tone shift this week, or at least something fundamentally has changed after the deaths of those seven humanitarian aid workers. And we know that President Biden has some sharp words for Netanyahu, at least per the readout we got from the White House on their conversation on the matter yesterday.
Yeah, and we're still trying to figure the extent to which they'll be reaction from that meeting you mentioned in our conversation with Cinney McCain in the opening of the Eras Gate. We'll see if others follow and add the voice of Hagar Shamali.
I'm glad to.
Say she's with us in Washington today, a rare treat for as former director for Syria and Lebanon the National Security Council now Greenwich Media Strategy. Is great to see Huggar in Washington. Thanks for having me, Welcome back to the conversation. Of course, this is becoming more difficult, it seems by the hour, as Iran now promises retaliation against Israel and telling the US to get out of the way, even as we try to bring aid into Gaza.
How can all of this happen at once.
It's certainly getting very tense, and you do you feel blood boiling, if you will, But Iran is very used to bluster. We're used to that that we at the end of the day, the United States assassinated their top commander, Costum Soulimani, their top general, and they promised a retaliation, and there were some plots that were very unphisticated that
were planned. They had plotted to assassinate by Pompeio former Secretary of State, They had plotted to assassinate the former Ambassador of South Africa, lau A Marx, and they were all foiled because they're very unsophisticated in their plots and instead they seek to do things through proxies, and so that bluster I would look at more as them communicating to their people, because they need to show their their own domestic audience that if they're their own compound, which
is Iranian territory, if they're if they're Iranian territory is attacked, that they've got you know, they're flexing their muscles, that they're going to react and that they're gonna they're gonna do justice. But I expect the response really to be through their proxies.
Well, what's interesting about what you're saying, Hugar, Essentially that Iran needs to message domestically. President Biden needs to message direct domestically as well, which is perhaps why we have seen the languide shift that that we have him suggesting that US policy toward Israel might change if they don't see changes from Israel that they would like to see. Is Iran not likely to take note of that, though, because okay, going after the US, the United States of
America is one thing, going after Israel. When you think US support for Israel is perhaps more in question, is it more likely that we actually could see something more significant from Iran in this moment.
I don't think so because Iran. I really don't think so, because Iran, first of all, they do they pay very close attention, like you said, to what happens in the US, how the relationship is between the US and Israel, and
how the US reacts. And that's why, for example, two months ago, when the US targeted over eighty five targets in Iraq and Syria against following that attack against our outpost in Jordan that killed three American service members, Iranian officials told those Iran backed groups not to pursue any more attacks and to avoid American fatalities, but that they would expect the activity coming from Hubela and Lebanon and the Huthis and Yemen to continue. And that's what you saw.
But there is a difference between shifts in policy or evolutions in policy and a change in the alliance between the US and Israel. And I don't expect that to change. Making a country an ally, which Israel has in a non NATO ally of the United States since nineteeny seven is a significant deal. And the reason is that it's a mutually beneficial relationship. Now right now, there are liabilities to that relationship. The foreign terror threat here has grown.
You've certainly got a liability that President Biden is facing as he approaches the election. But that said, and I can tell you this because I work very closely with the Israeli government, particularly when Hamas was in my portfolio at the Treasury Department in counter terrrist financing, and the intelligence they provide to US is not only helpful to achieve our counter terrorism or national security objectives, but also to achieve our homeland security objectives. A lot of that
intelligence protects US back home as well. And so I don't expect that alliance to change. But making aid conditional, that is how aid should go, in my opinion, whether it's Israel or another friend or ally or partner. And so that's something you ron watched, But I do believe that Iran knows that if they went after Israel, the US would ultimately be there.
Well, there you go with that said, opening one border crossing, a single border crossing is a start. It's a noteworthy headline. What should we expect? What do you expect to see following that meeting yesterday? Knowing that Benjamin Etya, who's dealing with pushback in his own country from the right for cow towing, as they say to.
Joe Biden, right, Israel's well, like any countries, is unique, has many numerous perspectives, and you feel right now we're expectings to head is increased pressure on getting to an immediate ceasefire, even if that ceasefire is temporary. And you do see that and those talks continue, you have a
lot of drama obviously, and individuals storming out. Israeli say that they're still angry at the United States for abstaining on the UN Security Council resolution that was I believe only ten days ago would have asked that asked for a ceasefire during the month of Ramadan, which ends next week, by the way, So they're angry about that, but they're still involved in those talks because at the same time they want the hostages released, or at least some immediate
hostages released. So I expect pressure to increase there, but I don't expect us to face a permanent ceasefire anytime soon.
Well, as we talk about the ceasefire negotiations, obviously it's
not just Israel and Hamas. The US is involved, Egypt's involved, Cutter is involved in Israel's economy, and Minister joined Bloomberg yesterday talking about how essentially they don't trust the Kataris either, in addition to Hamas, how should we be thinking about the people on the other side of this negotiating table, because this isn't ultimately just Israel's decision to make you have a group designated as a terrorist organization by the US on the other side of these negotiations.
Right, one hundred percent. And that's why you've got all these these three players that you named mediating the US, Cutter, and Egypt, and the Israel has listened. The Israel government has played both sides of the Cuttery card, because on one hand, they're saying they don't trust them because Cutter has outright supported Hamas.
But the fact is that the.
Israeli government under Nata Yahu has allowed hamas Is financing sorry cutter's financing to Hamas to millions of dollars per month. And the reason for that in Ntan Yahoo has been quite public about that is part because he claimed that at the time that he wanted to he thought that by allowing the funds to go this way, he could have more insight and transparency into where those funds would go,
and that they would go more towards humanitarian purposes. But he and his cabinet have also said that it was at that time to their advantage to have a divided Palestinian people, to have Gaza and Hamaspi strong and the other side be strong, because if they were divided then there could be no state. So this awful strategy contributed to Hamas's strength. So the curd thing I would there.
That's how negotiations go, and it's normal with a terrorist organization that you're going to have these players and that it's going to be extremely tenuous.
Spoken like someone who has been through this before. It's great to see you again. Don't be a stranger. The Garshamali Greenwich media strategies.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Avo car Play and then Rouno with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, not just live on YouTube.
Could we be in a world here in Washington in which progressive outrage over Israel sinks the drive to fund Ukraine. Lawmakers are back next week, and while I know they may tackle five to seven zero two, first, this is going to be a big throwdown over funding for both of our allies in the case of Israel. As you just heard, we were talking with Nick Wadhams. The democratic call from members of the Senate like Chris van Holland
even this is not Primila Jayapaul talking. This is an ally of Joe Biden, calling for the suspension of the transfer of offensive weapons to Israel, a new approach at the UN Security Council, and speaking up more against Benjamin Nett and Yahoo. There are at least twenty Democrats were told in the House who would vote against Israel funding if it were tied with Ukraine. That could be a problem for Kiev and a good place to start our
conversation this week with Mick Mulvaney. He's back, co founder of the Freedom Caucus, former acting chief of Staff in the Trump White House, along with many other business cards. Mick, it's great to see you, but looking forward to picking your brain on some of this stuff. Do you do you hear where I'm going on this or do you not buy into that narrative at the moment about Israel versus Ukraine.
I'm buy into all of that narrative. You know, where do you want to start? At the politics of it at the presidential level, at the at the congressional level, it's going to be nasty and you sort of and the temptation is to say, oh, and they're also dealing with fiveis seven oh two?
This week? That could he or next week? I guess so.
Yeah, it's a tough, tough place through business right now.
So could we begin a world in which neither happened? There is no money for Israel or Ukraine because nobody can agree on either.
No, I don't think so. I think at the end of the day, Well, yeah, I guess that's anything is possible. I mean, I got asked this week if a King Jeffries might end up being the Speaker of the House for the end of the year, and in an ordinary world, the answer to that's clearly now. But we long ago ceased existing in an ordinary world. So I still think there's a center of gravity for financial aid for both Ukraine and Israel. I get the feeling there's a little
bit more for Israel than there is for Ukraine. But you know, I said that now for about eight weeks, and I haven't seen any movement on it. I think once you start seeing standalone bills in both chambers, obviously, that's when you'll get a real feel for But I think I think the pushback on the progressive left against money for Israel is absolutely real, there's no question about it.
Well, that is something when you combine that with some Republican opposition to spending for Ukraine. Of course, Marjorie Taylor Green says she'll activate this motion of vacate, She'll make this a privileged resolution if the speaker goes there. Do you believe it or are we just raising money?
Both? And I believe it because we're just raising I mean, look, people looked what happened to Matt Gates. After Matt Gates, you know, started the instruction against Kevin McCarthy in January, then in January of twenty twenty three, finished it last year. He's now one of the most famous Republican members of the House, in fact, one of the most famous Republicans.
In the country.
There's a bunch of other egos lying around in that building going, wow, I wish I was as famous. I were as famous as as Matt Gates. What can I do to raise that kind of money and raise my kind of Q rating so that I get invited on stage with Donald Trump?
Ever replaced that he goes.
When Joe and that This is a longer answer to your question, but a little bit of history. When John Bayner about six or eight of us into his office right when the Pope was there in twenty fifteen, I think, consider any of you going to bring the motion? We said, you know, mister Speaker, no we won't, but somebody will.
And he said why, I say, listen, We've all gotten calls from folks back home saying, look, if you're the one who makes the motion, you go to the head of the line in the Republican primary for Senate or governor or whatever. You could raise a ton of money.
We don't care about kind of stuff.
That's not what the Freedom Caucus was about at the time. But certainly there's gonna be people on the floor who thought about making that motion, and that's why john left. You're in the same dynamic right now, probably on steroids.
Unbelievable, So we're in anything could happen mode. There's no point in predicting things. That's why you're open to potentially this idea of Hakim Jeffreyes.
You just wonder, I mean, that's an extreme scenario.
Obviously, make if Democrats help to save Mike Johnson in a world like that, what's the real deal people are throwing around talk about a power sharing agreement or maybe floor time for Ukraine that wouldn't exist otherwise, what's real that would sweeten the pot or payback Democrats to protect Mike Johnson.
That's an interesting question because my guess is it's a different answer for different subgroups of the Democrat Party. Give Hakim Jeffreys credit. He's done a pretty good job now of marshaling the assets his party has marshaling their efforts in the House. They have not had any sort of very very visible break at least with his leadership over the situation.
In Gaza.
But the bottom line is this is that nothing is free, right, and that if the Democrats lend support to Michael Johnson, there's going to be a cost to that, whether it's temporary in terms of a vote or something more permanent in terms of say a reallocation of committee assignments.
I would assume.
Everything's on the table, But look, let's not assume right away they're coming to Mike Johnson's defense simply because now we're getting really close. Look, there's only really only one more thing the government has to pass between now and the election, and it's something to keep the government funded between September and election day.
That's it.
Everything else would be nice, but that's the one thing they've got. Ask yourself, if you're a Democrat, wouldn't you love to go through the summer with a government shutdown caused by no Speaker of the House. That's a pretty good thing to run on during the August recess.
It doesn't sound like you can count necessarily on a lot of support in that world. A big one just in passing, Mick, I love your take on FAIZI seven oh two. The Rules Committee is expected to mark this up or at least announce that next week. The Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, which is was extremely controversial when it was first passed. We have two competing Republican ideas on this,
one from House Intelligence, one from House Judiciary. Should the government have to ask permission every time it bumps into a US citizen when it's spying on a bad guy overseas?
Is that the best way to ask the question.
I think that's a fair way to ask the question.
It's certainly going to be the debate on the floor.
I happen to think the answer is yes. A lot of folks think the answer is no. The really cool thing about that, Joe, You know, I bad mouth Washington a lot because Washington deserves to be bad mouth. There's no question about that. I'm a cynic because I've lived the place. But this is one of the really bright points. And I say that to say this it is non it's it doesn't fall neatly along partisan lines. It's one of those rare debates you're gonna have at Washington, DC
that will split both parties almost down the middle. It's going to be a very very close vote. The only time in my six years in the House that I sat on the floor with most of my colleagues, several hundred of my colleagues, and watched the debate. Was I guess in twenty and fifteen or sixteen on the on fight the last time we did fis a renewal when I was there and to watch Republicans argue both sides, Democrats argue both sides, people asking intelligent questions from the floor.
It was a really really good debate. My side lost and FEISA was renewed, but it was a very very close battle. And my guess is you're going to see that same process again, is it Is it going to be a fight, yeah? Is it gonna be a nasty fight, yeah, but it's going to be one of those positive fights that we used to have a lot more of in that town.
But you think that a decision will be born of debate, not whether Mike Turner or Jim Jordan is closer to Mike Johnson.
No, no, no, no, no. I don't think Mike Johnson's got any authority here at all. I mean, Mike is a is a I'd like him, everybody likes me, that's why he's there. But he's effectively a caretaker, right there's nobody sitting back going, oh, I wonder what the speaker wants to do on this. Mike is trying hard to keep the cats together so that you know, the Republics contain control of the calendard.
That's the big thing.
If if you lose the speakership, then you lose control of what comes to the floor, and every Republican wants to maintain that in some fashion. But I know this is not like Kevin McCarthy or Paul Ryan or John Bayner, where folks are looking to the speaker. I don't think for leadership. My guess is that there's going to be factions here like there's in so many things. But again, this is a healthy factionalism because it does not fall neatly at all along party lines.
You ever stop to think, if I hung around long enough, I would have been speaker.
Joe, I think if you would hung around long enough, you could have been speaker.
Well, we're not working on that. I can tell you. Hey, don't be a stranger. It's nice to catch up with you.
We'll have a lot more to talk about next week, and everybody's back in town, and I hope maybe we'll see in studio soon, Thank you, sir. As always spend time as Acting Chief of Staff Corps in the White House the Trump administration. Was co founder of the Freedom Caucus that has evolved quite a bit since his time there. In fact, Mikett even suggested on a year disbanding it
at one point. It will play a large role in what happens, most likely with all of the issues that we just talked about, from foreign aid to seven oh two.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then ron Oo with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Welcome to the fastest show in politics, Live from Washington. I'm Joe Matthew Cayley Lines will join the conversation for hour two. I was picturing yesterday Matt Bennett on the football field after the Super Bowl, having won the game quarterbacking a huge victory of no labels in this case. They asked him, now that you've done it, Matt, now that you've beat no Labels, what are you gonna do.
He's with us right now.
Of course, from Third Way, the Democratic strategist, Matt, are you going to Disney World?
I'm going to Disney World eventually, but before I go to Disney World, there's a lot more to be done to protect democracy. But it was a good day yesterday for sure.
Well, let's talk about it.
I of course joking around, because people who listen to and watch this program know that your group, Third Way has been working over time to prevent this from happening, on the belief that it would simply spoil the election and guarantee another term for Donald Trump. Was it the work you did or was it the fact that this was a flawed concept initially that could not seem to find a candidate.
I think it was both. You know, there's no question that it was a flawed concept. Their whole theory here was that they were going to actually win the election as a third party, and as I've pointed out on your show a few times, that's just ridiculous. No one's ever come close to doing that. Teddy Roosevelt couldn't do that. Four years after leaving office as one of the most popular president's American history, you got eighty eight electoral votes,
you need two seventy to win. Fifteen years later, they carved him into Mount Rushmore. They don't have Teddy Roosevelt. They never did, and they were never going to come close to winning. But I will say this, their offer was kind of on the surface level, very attractive to a lot of their donors and even to some potential candidates because they talked about a ticket between a Republican
and a Democrat, and wouldn't that be great? But if you dug down below the surface, there was a lot of rot there, and we wanted to make sure that people understood.
Well, Matt, I hope you'll hang out for us with us for a moment as we bring our panel in here. Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano are joining Bloomberg Politics contributors. Of course our signature panel here. And Genie, I know your office was rocking a little earlier in New York. I hope nothing fell over. I hope everybody's safe at an earthquake in the New York area earlier today. I'm guessing your office was rock and yesterday too when you heard this news. What does it mean for Joe Biden?
That's right, you know, and I think a lot of credit goes to Matt and the group and also move on dot org and those groups, who you know, I think, in my mind learned from the twenty sixteen experience, because remember Hillary Clinton's campaign said, if we sort of just ignore Jill Stein, nobody will know she's there and vote for her, and of course that's.
Not what happened.
So in this case, these groups let people know who our FK Junior is, and you know, that's critically important because they were able to talk about the positions that he's taken and the fact that a vote for him is going to help potentially elect the Donald Trump. And you know, I have to say, Joe, I was hoping you were going to play the Golden Girls theme because this is what the DNC is using against RFK Junior
now as they raise questions about this guy. So if you could get that, you know, keyed up for the next segment, I.
Would love that.
We'll work on that. Thank you for being a friend. Jennie.
Rick Davis joins us from the swing state of Arizona today, having of course run many Republican campaigns. Rick, you never bought this idea to begin with I'll come.
Yeah, Well, I think it's exactly what Matt was saying, is that it's very hard to find somebody who can like bear the success of Teddy Roosevelt. Right, there's only one Teddy Roosevelt. And I think at one point people thought that guy could be John McCain. But John McCain was a partisan. You liked the Republican Party, you wanted to fight to make it better. And so yeah, it's all about the candidates. I think Mitch McConnell said it best.
Candidates matter, and when you can't find a candidate, you don't have a party. And so at the end of the day, I think it's going to be better for
no label's long term. They continue to, you know, focus on problem solvers caucus in the House, which is a very productive and positive thing, and frankly, I think this example maybe keeps them out of electoral politics for a while, and so now we focus on other third party disruptors, and there are plenty of those still banging around, as Gen points out, and I think that could still have a determined effect on the outcome of some of these states.
Well, they sure are, Rick, and I wonder Matt That's where we started our conversation. What you see left as what you described as a lot of work left to be done.
There is, And as both Geni and Rick noted, you don't have to be a huge household name to have an impact on these elections as third party candidate, I mean, Jill Stein, no one had ever heard of her. As Gene pointed out, that we the Democrats, ignored her in twenty sixteen, and that was an enormous mistake. She either cost Hillary the election outright or came within one hundred votes or so of doing so. I mean, there's some persnickety political scientists who argue over those kinds of things,
but she had a huge impact. My favorite statistic here, and it's relevant for this year too, is in the three most important states Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, states that Trump won in twenty sixteen and then lost in twenty twenty, those made the difference in both races. His share of the vote in those states rose between sixteen and twenty.
He did, He got a bigger share of the vote, but ended up losing the second time because Biden's share of the vote relative to Clinton's went up more and the reason is they were you know, the third party candidates from twenty sixteen were forced to choose between the two, and they voted for Biden. We think that'll happen again as long as there are not spoilers on the ballot, and so we have to turn to those other ones now.
Matt Benneck. Great to have you back.
I appreciate your insights on this day after we got the news. I don't really think he's going to Disney World. I don't know about you, guys, Rick and Genie. I just kept thinking of that moment, the confetti falling on
Matt Bennett. We're going to have a conversation at the top of the next hour with Cindy McCain, and I mentioned that because as we spend time with Rick and Jeanie here, we've been talking a bit this hour about potential funding for Israel, about potential policy changes for Israel following Joe Biden's meeting with Benjamin et Yahu, and then of course there's a matter of funding Ukraine and they
could collide in the House of Representatives. As we continue with our panel, Genie, what's your thought on this progressive outrage over Israel could end up making it more difficult to pass AID for Ukraine, especially if they're tied together. How much of a concern should this be for the administration?
You know, I think it is a big concern. I was just thinking back to how much has changed since the administration put forward this idea of coupling Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan together, the thinking being that sort of the carot of Israel would help push Ukraine through. And of course that has all changed now. And you know, to listen to some somebody like Chris Coons, who is so close to President Biden, talk about the fact that there
should be conditions on this AID. I also heard people talking about Lindsey Graham, and of course we can't forget what Donald Trump had to say on Hugh Hewitt yesterday, not that he's in the Senate, but you know, that tells you that even if they get something through the House, it might be a slog in the Senate. And this goes deeper and further than just progressives. One of the starkest statements I heard yesterday was a progressive Elizabeth Warren.
But you are hearing it throughout the Democratic Caucus, and so I think it is going to be a slog as I mentioned in the Senate, if they get something through the House that is.
Yeah, well, Rick Jennie just said a lot there, and we are talking about folks like Chris Coon's, Chris van Hollen, allies of Joe Biden, not just a Primeilajiapaul here. These are the folks that Joe Biden needs to get things done in the Senate. Could the President make some sort of preemptive action here to get his arms around the situation in Israel to help secure funding for Ukraine.
Yeah, well, I think in that score he's doing that this week, and certainly the announcements today of being much more aggressive and muscular around the ceasefire, you know, getting mit Yahoo to open up some of these ports, take some of the pressure off on the humanitarian issues, you know, really getting out their heart on the killing of you know,
humanitarian aid workers. I think his entire campaign from the White House on this issue this week has been to get on the right side of history on this and the reality is that even though Chris Coons and others in the Senate have espoused concerns about the war that's being fought in Gaza, they're not about to oppose their president. If Joe Biden says this is the deal I want to have, I'll sign this bill did in the Senate
and they voted them for it. They were saying these things before that state vote, so they're not going to break with the President of the United States on this issue. But you're right, and Genie made this point, is that Israel was actually helping the Ukraine bill get through its earlier parts of this strategy. And now, no question, it adds a little bit more complexity. I mean, are there really that many more Democrats are going to vote against it other than the jib balls and AOC's and people
I got. Probably not, maybe one or two. But it certainly doesn't add to the momentum you need to.
Get this through.
And this is a hard slog in the House no matter what. So, yes, complexity is the name of the game, and this speaker Johnson has not shown us an ability to manage through complexity in a successful fashion.
Spending time with Rick Davis and Genie Shanzana reportedly, Rick twenty Democrat knows at the moment, we'll see where those numbers got. Iran, Genie, I wonder how concerned you are about this. I can only think that there's a meeting inside the White House on the daily about this right now, as Iran vows to punish Israel for its strike on the embassy in Syria. This is the strike in Damascus from a few days ago. Here, this headline is chilling
on the Bloomberg Genie. Iran tells us to step aside as it readies response to Israel.
What does Joe Biden do now?
You know, I think they are. You're right, they are meeting hopefully hourly, minute by minute and not just daily on this. It is it is very very scary moment. And as we think about this, and of course we heard earlier Iran saying that Israel was only capable of doing what it did in Syria because of the weapons that the United States and the support has provided, which gets us back to this issue of more funding for Israel, and will Senators now allow that to go forward without condition?
We don't do that for other countries, We've always done it for Israel, And now that is an open question. And you've got to imagine Joe Biden, although I don't know for certain, made that clear to net and Yahoo yesterday in the call that things are changing. And you know, again to me to hear Donald Trump say Israel is losing the pr war, that's not the most important thing.
But of course you cannot let that slide because as you change hearts and minds, support when it comes to voting for funding does follow in Congress.
Rick, in a written message to Washington, the Iranian President's deputy chief of Staff for Political affairs, rights that Iran warned the US not to get dragged into net and Yahoo's trap said the US should quote step aside so that you don't get hit on vote.
What does the White House do right now?
Well, first of all, the White House has already shown a resolve against Iran. It wasn't too long ago after three of our service members were killed by a drone attack in Syria that we countered with eighty five individual strikes killing high ranking Iranian military officials in Syria, and that sent the message we wanted to send that we can get to them anywhere, any place of our choosing. They don't want to fight with the United States, and that is the clearest message to that do not get
in our way. But what they really mean is we don't want to paint a target on us if we retaliate against Israel, and Israel is our ally. We are in this fight alongside Israel. Israel is not the one who's the aggressor. They were invaded by a terrorist organization sponsored and supported and directed by Iran Hamas and so Iran has blood on their hands today. They're going to have blood on their hands tomorrow. If they escalate. There'll be an equal and opposite reaction again at our choosing,
and Israel can defend itself. But the bottom line is America's in this fight with them, and that's what's got Rand worried, and they should.
Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.