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Welcome to the Monday edition of Ballots of Power. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington, where we have reached peak bloom pay no attention to what's happening or not. In the case of Capitol Hill, the cherry blossoms have reached stage six. It's sixty something degrees outside, the tourists are clogging our streets, and spring is at hand. In Washington, the question is, well, the government shut down on Friday, even if for a minute the chance of a possible stumble into a shutdown
may have just gotten greater. We've been talking, of course, about a couple of solutions here that might include a continuing resolution for the Department of Homeland Security. That's where they had a sticking point there when it comes to border language, how to deal with border agents, border security, and the rest. We can't get past anything having to do with the border without an argument, and so here we are. We thought we might get text tonight. Now
it appears we may not. And if that is the case, we could have a scenario in which we just bump into that shutdown midnight on Friday because they can't get everything done in time. And that's where we want to start the conversation with Eric Watson reporting over the weekend and just hearing now from some lawmakers as we wait for the return of the House. It's good to see Eric, what kind of odds are we putting on this here? Because this DHS bill seems to be a problem.
You know, it's really touching Gough. I keep hearing from sources yesterday on Sunday that was coming out soon. Then it wasn't, you know, And then today as well, we were respecting it, and now it seems like it's not. But I just heard from a source that it may still come out. So not there yet, but things are difficult. Basically, it's six parts of this package of funny everything from
the Pentagon to the Department of Education. But one part of it is the Homeland Security Bill, which has been really the big sticking point between Congress and Biden administration on border This wouldn't solve the border policy dispute remain in Mexico and all of that, but it would They are trying to, you know, increase the number of detension beds for ice for example, you know, increase border patrol funding. But you know, they're kind of in a deadlock here,
so I think it may still come out. But as you noted, the House has this procedure of US wait seventy two hours that could be waved. It was waved in the case of a of a CR of stopgap bill if it's not. You know, this pushes the Senate right up against the deadline. And we know things can move lightning fast with unanimous consent in the Senate, but they also can drag you out. So yeah, we could see a weekend shut down, which some sources say is not such a such a bad thing, or they could
pass a three day CR. But you know, I think this will get resolved there. It's been hang ups about these detention beds and so forth before the appropse committees for PRICIS committees know how to resolve this problem, but it's so blamed at the President and speaker level that that maybe we do stumble into shut.
Well, I guess it's it's inevitable at some point, right, my god, I don't know if I've lost count. This would be our fifth cr if we actually needed one. I think if you're dancing on the ash so long like this, eventually you're going to fall off, right.
I think so. But it's so late towards the election year, so really people don't like to mess around with that so close to a time when voters may remember and sign Lane and the Speaker has and House Pokans have really decided that they're not going to kind of provoke a shutdown, doing everything they can to avoid it. Now. They won't sign on to something such as green lighting Biden migration policies that could get them in trouble with their base, but you know, they can score some kind
of policy wins here. I think it's going to go through.
Fascinating. So we've got a lot to learn. I guess over the next couple of days here, if there is a shutdown, Eric, it's going to be something very short, is the idea? Right, We're actually a lot closer to finishing this in the end. It would almost be an accidental shutdown. If this happens or are there some lawmakers who want to make a point.
There always are some that do are advocating a shutdown, especially in the House Freedom Caucus, but they're kind of marginalized here, they're not really central to the discussion. And again, there's been a law passed recently that even those non essential workers who are furlowed will get paid. So that is a waste of money for the government for work, paying for work that wasn't done. But those workers will eventually get paid for sure. Now because always an open
question before this law was passed. The essential workers work and they don't get the pay right away, but don't get it later. So it's really a good question of contract and others. But and we can't shutdown probably doesn't have a big impact on many people and certainly doesn't have an impact on the economy.
Well, let's see what we can do this week, Eric Wasson, great to see you. Welcome back to the Fray here with the countdown. That'll bring us to midnight Friday once again, we'll see if we can get this done. And of course, if you listen to this program, you will know long before it happens. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington, as we
spend a couple of plates here. This would typically be a pretty quiet period of time on a Monday like this, the eighteenth of March, but we've got a lot to talk about with not only a potential shutdown this late in the game in the fiscal year, but just an endless string of headlines coming from Israel. And we just got another important one here as Joe Biden and Benjamin Netanya who have held their first call. We have just
learned in more than a month. This of course, against the backdrop of some very difficult policy and politics with regard to Israel and Gaza that have dogged this president here on the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue when it comes to progressive Democrats on Capitol Hill, and also on the campaign trail with an uncommitted vote, protest vote that
has followed him through states like Michigan and Minnesota. Interesting yesterday, Saint Patrick's Day, the President and the Prime Minister of Ireland, the Tea Shock together for Saint Patrick's Day dinner at the White House for what would normally be a very fun celebration, and this was very much in the air. The Tea Shock explained why Ireland has such a long
history of supporting and backing the Palestinians. In this case, they both acknowledged the need for aid, and we want to talk a bit about the risks that come with that. It's a conversation we were having in our newsroom. The idea of not only air dropping supplies but also setting up a temporary port or peer is fraught with risk, and this is why this would be done by the military. In part, Kelly Grico is with a senior fellow at the Reimagining Grand Strategy program at the Stimson Center. Kelly,
welcome back to Bloomberg. Is great to have you. There are a lot of questions still about whether we can pull this off, knowing that we don't want to put us boots on the ground to make this temporary peer work. Is it still the best option we have?
Well, first, thank you for having me. As you said, this is a really challenging time with what's happening in Gaza and the humanitarian crisis. You know the question you ask, is this the best option? Well, no, it's not the best option. In the suns that there are trucks you know in Egypt right now that are loaded and ready to go into Gaza. But as long as that is blocked as an option, we need to find potentially some way to bring in a greater volume of aid than as possible through hair drops.
We've heard criticism of this idea from both sides of the aisle, and we know that a couple of trucks, the second AID truck has now arrived on a shipment rather have arrived on Gaza's shore. I shouldn't say truck, but a second a ship has to the extent that we can build a temporary peer, how would that work if we don't want to have American boots on the ground.
Yeah, So I think it's important to say that there are really two things that need to be constructed for
this operation. One is to actually construct a floating dock which would be a little bit further out of sea, so that large cargo ships could pull up to that dock and unload their cargo and then it would then be transferred to smaller ships that would then be headed towards what would be the second thing that needs to be constructed, which is a floating pier and causeway, and that would be where those things would then be unloaded and then trucks would then take it and distribute it
to gossens. So you need to construct both of those. Of course, the question a lot of people have is how do you construct a peer without US forces being put on the ground. And the way to do that is you can drupted at sea and then you essentially drive it in to connect with the lands. Yes, so technically there are not your troops on the ground.
Do we have any reason to believe that Israel would stop this from happening? What if Israel doesn't want this here?
Yeah?
I mean I think if Israel doesn't want this, I don't see how this is viable because, frankly, at least in some of the reporting, it seems to be that the Israelis are going to provide an outer security parameter, and that would be key for two reasons. One because, of course there would be concerns about attacks from Hamas or some other kind of actor on the infrastructure and forces at sea. And then the second piece would also be that you know, these are people in Gaza that
are desperate, They're going to rush towards the AID. It's understandable, but it creates a really dangerous security situation, and so you would need some presence on the ground providing security, so that in this case has to be the Israelis.
We have a trust problem here. When the World's Central Kitchen, which is behind these shipments, says two hundred tons of aid was on board and the IDF says it was one hundred and fifteen tons, we have a problem here, right, Yes.
I mean I don't know what accounts for the difference or how they're making their calculations, but I would say, you know, two hundred tons, it's not nothing, you know, to scove at, but it is actually pretty small and compared to what the actual needs are. And that ship, for example, stopped at a bar, a smaller bars because it's a smaller ship.
You know.
I think the question is, again the kind of volumes that are required requires an ability to bring in much larger ships. And so I think you're raising the right issue, which is, you know, is real going to allow that and have concerns about what's on these ships.
For example, as we spend time with Kelly Griico from the Stimpson Center, I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. This phone call, I assume is going to lead to some settlement of these questions. Today President Biden and Benjaminettania who talking about specifically the issue of delivering aid but also managing an invasion of Rafa, And I wonder your thoughts on that,
with your expertise in this field. Is it possible for the IDEF to actually get civilians out of the way that, of course, is the Hamas strategy right to use them as human shields.
Yes, I mean, I think it's really difficult. I mean, I think we sometimes we have the answer because we've seen throughout the course of the operations of Israel making announcements Forrazilians to go places, and then it's just really hard, given how the concentration of population, to sort of clear these areas from any kind of civilians. And this is
the reality I think of war. I think the more interesting thing to me will be, you know, Biden publicly declared it a red line around Rapa in terms of wanting a plan to protect civilians, and whether you know the President is now on board with that Israeli planed, or if he's actually going to take a much harder position now and try to put pressure on the Israelis to move in a different direction. Use leverage that we have, which is largely our military aid to Israel.
We've spoken a lot, of course about Israel in this case, but as well funding for the war in Israel, it's tied to funding for the war in Ukraine, Kelly, and it's still hung up in Washington, even as the President tries to move this needle. It's just not been happening lately, and it's created a real concern in Ukraine as they run out of ammunition. I know this is also something
that you've got your eyes on. And after hearing from Vladimir Putin over the weekend, re elected in air quotes at eighty seven percent, I believe it was he talked about cutting Ukrainian troops to pieces, and I wonder to what extent this election will embolden him to try to finish the job.
Yes, I mean, I think one of the things that we should be looking at to see is if you're going to now feel competent enough to announce another partial mobilization. You know, I think there's signs that that might indeed be the case, and I think that actually creates real challenges for Ukraine on the one issue that they have
control over. They may not have control over you know, ammunition coming from the West or other kinds of weapons, but they do have control over their mobilization, and right now bills are hung up in their own government about trying to mobilize more of their population. And so that's my concern is really the shortage and personnel.
But of course if we look at the equipment side as well, if this money were passed today in Washington, when would we actually be able to make the shells and deliver them?
Yeah, So, I mean the United States has ramped up ammunition production quite a bit since the start of the war, and by twenty twenty five, the Army has said that they'll be able to produce one hundred rounds of these one hundred and fifty five millimeter shells per month. So I think actually, in terms of things like ammunition, we probably can continue, you right now, to provide that to Ukraine.
And quickly the issue becomes harder when we start talking about some of these systems that are more expensive and that we don't have as many numbers, like missiles for the Patriot systems that we've sent to Ukraine a tack THEMS. These are these long range missile systems, those things there would need to be time, and we're really coming down to numbers here where I don't actually see how we're able to send much more to Ukraine without endangering our own stops.
Kelly Grico, thank you. It's great to have you back from the Stimpson Center.
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After another wild weekend, I hope you had a great Saint Pat stay wild on the campaign trail, or at least in terms of some of the rhetoric that we heard, and that means it is now time for us to debate the context of the term bloodbath. If you weren't paying attention over the weekend, I salute you. Maybe you had a holiday to celebrate. But Donald Trump is floating this idea. We'll give it to you in his words, and we will give you the context of a one
hundred percent tariff on evs from China. It was what he said after that, because that would be quite a story on any day. But beyond the tariff, it was the language that he chose. In some news organizations, you know, they cut that right down to a narrow SoundBite, and they got everybody upset. Let's hear it in full. This is Donald Trump on the campaign trail over the weekend.
Listen if you're listening, presidency and you and I are friends, but he understands the ideal. We're going to put a one hundred percent tariff on every single car that comes across the line, and you're not going to be able to sell those goes if I get elected. If I don't get elected, it's going to be a blood bath for the whole That's going to be the least of it.
All Right, there you go, It's going to be a blood bath. It's going to be the least of it. Now, there's been an urging by Republicans, as I heard, and some Democrats all throughout the day Sunday morning television and on the news programs that context is everything here, slow down mainstream media. But I guess the question is is there a good context for a bloodbath? Let's assemble the panel Rick Davis and Geanie Shanzo join on a Monday back from the weekend our signature panel. Rick pull me
in off the ledge. Here are we making too much of this?
You know, I don't think we're making too much of it, but I'm not exactly sure we're talking about the right thing.
You know.
The one thing that I think gets missed by the media, and it's been a big problem since the twenty twenty elections is the proliferation of political violence. And no more a great example of it than in a mild stomping
grounds in Arizona. Maricopa County Board of Supervisor is one of the biggest counties in America, the hotbed for political wins and losses in Arizona, and last week the Board of Supervisors, the Maricopa County Board of Supervisers was was attacked in their chambers during a meeting by Trump supporters screaming revolution and this is this is a a an attack on government, and they took over the podium. The supervisors got out by a side door called the Sheriff's
office cut off the live feed. And this is the context with which are top politician in the Republican Party is talking about bloodbaths. Now, I don't really care what the context is, whether it's about cars or whether it's about the country, but it's not the kind of terminology that I think we ought to be using in a country that is already riff with political violence. And the last thing he said, which wasn't in your clip, is that it's going to be a blood bath for the country.
And so I'm just trying to piece together, like, so, okay, so we don't have any Chinese evs coming in because of his terra, why is that a blood bath for the country.
I don't get.
I don't if he loses, so anyway, I think it's all about context. I think that we need to be very focused on political violence and this kind of hot rhetoric doesn't help.
Well, that was awfully well answered, Genie. It seems like this kind of stuff should be acknowledged. There isn't normalizing after a while of you know what, I think Donald Trump calls it locker room talk or something like that. But it seems to me that the context might be irrelevant here.
How about you, Well, I happen to agree with that. I think any time we are trying to contextualize or understand or decipher or channel what Donald Trump is talking about. We have to take a step back and ask ourselves does it really matter? He himself long ago said he could shoot somebody on Fifth Avenue and it wouldn't matter. He can say almost anything at this point, and it
doesn't matter to his voters. And I think rather than asking what he means or what he was saying, or was he talking about automobile tariffs or was he talking about another January sixth, we're better off asking why doesn't this matter to his voters? And there is a really solid research base for answering that question. It doesn't matter to his voters because his voters have long felt left out and left aside and pushed away by both parties.
So they're not asking for an answer to their economic problems. They are asking, quite frankly, for a middle finger to the establishment, and that's what Donald Trump provides. So they're in on all his jokes, his rhetorics, the more vulgar the better. And so from this perspective, contextualizing what he says doesn't matter. We should be focusing instead on what he's proposing, and one hundred percent tariff on automobiles is
a big proposal with enormous ramifications. That should have been the news, not the use of the term bloodbath.
Well, thank you both for being thoughtful on that. I'll tell you there are some folks with a lot of money who are giving a middle finger back to Donald Trump, in this case those who gave Joe Biden fifty three million dollars in February. This went to the reelection campaign and the party. That's a record for the month. Rick, the campaign has one hundred and fifty five million dollars cash on hand, the most amassed for a Democrat at
this point in the calendar. How do you read that, knowing that polling has been such a problem for him.
Yeah, Look, I mean he's got one of the essential elements of a successful campaign, a financial advantage. Now, most incumbent running for reelection are going to have a financial advantage, but this has been a year where we've understood that it's basically two incumbents running against each other. And Donald Trump's been fundraising since the day he left office, and the fact that he's spent down his wad of cash and not insignificantly because of his legal problems, indicates a
real functional problem for Donald Trump. He probably doesn't need to equal or exceed Biden's spending to be competitive. Obviously, he's ahead in the polls right now in these targeted states. But the campaign between the two of them has just really begun, and the reality is he seedes this ground. This financial turf to Biden is very dangerous. I don't know any candidate who thinks that's a good idea. And so, you know, kudos to the Democrats for hustling and getting
a lot of money in. And I think that there are real concerns within the Republican Party about whether or not Donald Trump is equipped to financial manages campaign. There's no question that the RNC is a part of this problem. Now he's now running the RNC and it doesn't have any money. His campaign's basically broke, and he's got all these bills coming in from lawyers. So it's a big problem.
It's a big problem, Genie. When Donald Trump says it is a practical impossibility, that is a quote from the court filing to post full bond while he appeals the penalty four hundred and fifty four million dollar penalty against him in New York's civil fraud case. He says doing so may require cash reserves nearing a billion dollars. We
still have eight months left for this campaign. Right, We've been talking about the longest ever and likely most expensive ever general election campaign and Joe Biden is sitting on more money than a Democrat has ever had at this point. Are we having the right conversation about this race?
Well, that's absolutely right. I mean, he had the strongest fundraising amongst the grass roots, I think ever in modern American history. But that number could be that could be wrong, but it was a strong one. So, you know, to echo what Joe Biden has been saying, you know, you look at those polls and you feel that, you know, he's widely unpopular at about thirty eight percent. But he counters and says, look at the fundraising we are doing, and it is not all from wealthy donors. A lot
of it is from the grassroots. So there is enthusiasm out there for the campaign. But the reality is, as you know, we constantly talk about Trump's rhetoric, and just what we were talking about before, the question is going to be does it even matter? I mean, Trump is a master of the free media. He goes out over the weekend, says something almost undecipherable, and that's all we hear about. So, you know, traditionally I would agree the
money would matter an awful lot. But the reality is Donald Trump has really mastered this game of free media. He may continue to. So Joe Biden's going to be helped by this number, for sure, but you know, you have to ask how much and can he overcome these slagging poll numbers in the Bloomberg Pole, in these key states where he is just consistently been behind increasingly So Donald Trump, well.
Let's grab the third rail for a moment here, Rick Davis, because Donald Trump did over the weekend he was asked on Fox about this New York Times report that he was about to settle on a six weeks pregnancy ban an abortion ban after sixteen weeks. Knowing that this number has been batted around a lot on the campaign trail, he says, we're going to find out, and pretty soon I'm going to be making a decision. Quote. I would like to see if we could make both sides happy. Unquote.
This is the man who takes credit for ending Roe V. Wade. How important will his answer be on this?
It's an incredibly dangerous thing to set up for yourself. Right, And this is the thing that I head scratching moment. Why is he even taking that on himself? Why doesn't he just say, Hey, there's these guys, you know, DeSantis, he's too short. You know, I'd like the way Yunkin did it. I mean, like, let those guys take the heat. He's already got the pro life vote in his pocket.
The only thing he can do is upset them. And if he picks a number that they don't like, you know, quote trying to make everybody happy, then I think it's a problem for him. It is a very clear tell that he's worried about this abortion issue, because otherwise, why is he bringing it up.
I'd like to see if we could make both sides happy, Genie. I don't know how he would manage to do. That is another option. He never answers that question.
Yeah, that's another option. As we know, Donald Trump is you know, probably the biggest stumbling block to his own campaign or the things that he says and does repeatedly. Abortion is something that he has taken credit for the overturning of Roe on a repeated basis. If it wasn't for Donald Trump, we wouldn't have had the overturning of Roe, and he has said that consistently, so now he is going to raise this and it's an issue that has only helped the Democrats and the pro choice side. So
I'm not sure why he's raising it. I am sure his campaign doesn't want him to, but as usual with Donald Trump, they can't stop him. He's his own worst enemy in these in these situations.
You know, we haven't talked enough about Joe Biden in this instance. Outside of his financial situation, Genie, the matter of Israel followed him all weekend. It came up with the Prime Minister of Ireland at the Saint Patrick's Day dinner, typically a very lighthearted affair, and news broke today since we've been on the air that he did have the first call in a month with Benjamin Netanya who How important is it going to be for him to have something to show for that call?
You know, I don't know that he's going to be a to do anything with a phone call, the net and Yahoo to assuage the the you know, the really really vocal protesters on the Democratic side. I do think it is critically important as president of the United States that he keeps those channels open. He has a consistent conversation. He assures Israel of our support for them as a close ally. This is the difficulty of being an incumbent.
He's got to both, you know, speak to this base that is very unhappy, and he's got to run the country, and that is a difficult thing to do. So I don't know how he is going to make this that much better in the short term, unless we hear that there is indeed some type of cease fire that he can take some credit for.
This has been close to a breakdown in communications.
Rick.
At one point, Joe Biden was quoted to say, you hug Benjamin net and Yaho. The more problem you have, the closer you hug him. And there hasn't been so much hugs lately here. It's become a political liability for Joe Biden. In our minute remaining, I'd ask you the same. Does he need to start showing more results from these calls?
Yeah, Look, I mean they don't have a lack of communication, they just have a disagreement.
You know.
Benjamin n. Yahoo is proceeding upon a path that he believes is good for the people of Israel and good for his own political future, and Joe Biden's trying to minimize the carnage and bring Israel back.
Into the world.
Those are two things that right now standing contrast to one another, and until they start to get closer to a center, that's going to be a disagreement that's going to last a long time.
A tour de force with Rick and Jeanie. I love this. We should do this every Monday.
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Simmon's Monday it means we're about to start another week here in Washington, although technically lawmakers aren't really starting it yet. It's only Monday today, It's only Monday, and yet Friday, Joe is a very important deadline when you're trying to keep the spending equivalent of about seventy five percent of the US government open beyond midnight at the end of this week, and that's looking difficult. As we begin the week or kind of here in Washington.
Yeah, I wonder is this a working weekend for Jack Fitzpatrick. I bet he got some rest on Saint Patrick's Day. He of course covers appropriations for Bloomberg government, and boy, that has become quite the beat for any reporter in Washington. That used to be a boring job. I think at one point. Great to see you back, Jack, It's just it strikes me that if you dance on the edge
long enough, eventually you're going to fall off. Here, even with best intentions they try to get this thing done, they might actually bump into the deadline this weekend.
Yes, I mean, it's never a boring beat for me, but it is especially ten this year. As you mentioned, this is the bigger deadline. We've been talking about them struggling with funding the government for a while, but this is the one that includes the Department of Defense. This is a little more than three quarters of the money. They really wanted a deal to come together by yesterday, because they've got the seventy two hour rule in the House.
If a deal came together right now, we'd be talking about maybe a Thursday afternoon vote in the House that gives the Senate very little time before Friday night. We already know that the Senate would need unanimous consent to hold a time to hold a vote in time. So there are a lot of bowling pins in the air
that they're trying to juggle to get something done. And I think we're at the point where they have not said they are talking about another stopgap, but logistically they'll probably have to start talking about at least a short one if it doesn't come together right now.
And when we say short one, we're probably talking just a number of days right to actually get the legislation across the finish line, not another two tiered something the kick the can for.
A few weeks.
Another big one would be a tough sell because Republicans, you know, continuing resolutions CR used to be a term of art. Now that is a dirty word for Conservatives. They do not want to vote on a CR again. Last time, when they struggled with the deadline, they talked about, well, if we need like a two day stop gap, we could do that.
That would probably be.
The conversation if it doesn't come together with a real deal just about immediately.
So this is why we can't have nice things. The language from speaker Johnson makes me wonder maybe you can bring us inside this debate over border spending a little bit. We're working toward a deal. He said that reprioritizes DHS funding towards enforcing border and immigration laws. They rejected a one and a half billion dollar border security proposal here.
What do they want, Well, it's the same kind of issue that held up the foreign aid funding issue the broader immigration negotiations. Republicans have said that the President keeps asking for money that yes, would go to the Department of Homeland Security, but it's more for processing people through the system. Conservatives do not believe they're doing enough to
dissuade people from coming here in the first place. You can talk about the remain in Mexico policy or a variety of policies that would dissuade people from coming here and seeking asylum, stop people from crossing the border illegally. Yeah, they want HR two.
They wanted HR two before.
I'm sure the conversations have narrowed down to something shy of HR two. But when they thought they would need to do a stop gap just for homeland security, because they did talk about just a full year stop gap, they said, well, there would need to be some exceptions. Once they talked about the exceptions for border security, they realized that's the tough thing to negotiate, so they might
as well try to negotiate the whole bill. So they're back at the age old problem now of what do you do on border security that feels like real border security to the most conservative members who are willing to vote to fund the government.
So could we be in a situation where, because they're facing down the threat of a shutdown of much wider parts of the government than just DHS. Because all of this is getting rote together, Republicans actually have to give some of the border measures and potentially a win to the Biden administration on them by this for that reason, rather than giving them the win earlier on in the bipartisan deal that was negotiated.
You know, it's hard to define what a win would be to the Biden administration because this is an issue that's been pushed by conservatives. It's more of been a question of how much of a win is enough for them to vote for it. They pushed the Biden administration in a more conservative direction on some of these asylum policies,
but it wasn't enough for the conservatives. We've gotten to the point where a lot of people are kind of going in circles about how much of a win is something for us to really call a victory and how much is too small so that we want to be able to run on this. The shadow of Donald Trump is still hanging over anything with the.
Border, all right, Jack Fitzpatrick of Bloomberg Government, going to be a fun week for you, and hopefully not weekend, I'm sure.
For deadlines that's coming someday, right for funding deadlines.
Don't wish that upon us, Thank you, Jack, And of course he raises the specter of former President Trump, who we know has had some influence in the minds of those on Capitol Hills, specifically when it comes to the issue of border policy. He was not in favor of that bipartisan deal that was struck, and then that bipartisan
deal very quickly died in this Congress. And of course the former president Joe was in the news for other reasons over this weekend as well, speaking in Ohio about a bloodbath, but specifically he was talking about the auto industry. It's become about context in the aftermath.
That's what they say. We were debating in our previous hour whether there is a debate around context and whether there is any difference when it comes to a blood bath. Yes, you want to hear what he said.
We should hear from the former president this weekend.
If you're listening, Presidency and you and I are friends, But he understands the ideal. We're going to put a one hundred per tower for in every single car that comes across the line, and you're not going to be able to sell those because if I get elected. Now, if I don't get elected, it's going to be a bloodbath for the whole that's going to be the least of it.
And then of course we got to follow up on true social after.
This, Yeah, what is right? An A lot of people a probably at work by the time that happened.
In part the fake news media and their democratic partners in the destruction of our nation pretended to be shocked at the use of my use of the word bloodbath, even though they fully understood I was simply referring to imports allowed by crooker Joe Biden, which are killing the automobile industry.
Is the quote, Okay, social, I still don't get the way of bloodbath would be better if it were over cars. It's still a blood bath.
Well, I guess it raises a question of how this is received in Ohio and in the Republican base, to which he was probably speaking.
Yeah, this's a big reason why he was there. It is primary day tomorrow.
It is, and maybe it matters less if you've already locked up the Republican nomination, but there are down ballot implications in Ohio at stake in the primary tomorrow, and that is where we want to begin now with Spencer Kimball. He is the executive director of the Emerson College Polling Center who just this hour has fresh data out on that Republican primary. Came out at one pm Eastern time. And Spencer, great to have you with us as this
is breaking here. So your final poll of the Republican primary, this is for the Senate race, in particular, thirty eight percent of voters likely to support Bernie Moreno, who wasn't leading. And you're polling just five days ago. This has been a pretty volatile primary race thus far. Tell us more about what you're finding now that we're just one day out.
Well, Kayley, I think you got it right in that this race has really jumped around. We had Frank LeRose, the Secretary of State, leading this race back in November, and then Matt Dolan had the lead as you mentioned last week. But Trump's rally this weekend seems to have given Moreno a bit of a bump our polling, coming into today with a ten point lead, now.
A ten point lead, So to Kayley's point, just a week ago, this entire race was reverse of what we have now. So Moreno at thirty eight percent, Dolan at twenty nine, Larrose at twelve. This is all about Trump.
Then, Yeah, this race has been interesting. If you look at that number of undecided voters. When we started off, it was at fifty percent, and even this weekend when we're polling, it was at twenty percent. But we didn't let those undecided voters off the hook in our polling. We pushed them into who would they actually choose, and
that's where we see a bump for Dolan. So that nine point ten point gap tightens to four to five points when we pushed these undecided voters at twenty percent, suggesting that this race could tighten tomorrow on election Day.
So it'll be a very interesting day. Indeed, are voters discriminating issue wise between the different individuals here, are are voters who are likely to vote for Moreno prioritizing something over over the others.
Yeah, that's the immigration policy issues and economy. Those two break for Moreno. He's leading those voters. If you got into topics like education or healthcare, well then Dolan is actually leading with like seventy percent. But the problem for Dolan is those issues are only top issues for about four or five percent of Republican primary voters. Immigration, in the economy, they're combined for about seventy five percent as
the most important issue. So that gives Moreno a good position at least on those two issues.
We're talking with Spencer Kimball from Emerson College Polling. Of course, this is the primary to find out who's going to run against Senator Schared Brown, a very important seat for Democrats, Spencer, and fascinating. In your most recent poll you found out that he's actually doing pretty well strangely with Trump supporters. Eight percent of Trump voters planned to split their ticket and vote for Brown. So what kind of a situation is he in? This was said to be the political fight of his life.
Well, he's certainly in a dogfight, depends on who gets the nomination. In our polling, he seems to run better against Moreno at this point than he does against Dolan in a general election. But what we're seeing in Ohio is very similar to what we're seeing in Arizona, Nevada, Montana, Pennsylvania, where Trump is leading against Biden. And yet all of these Democratic Senate candidates are leading their Republican challengers by two to three points, even in a state like Montana
where Trump is up by fifteen sixteen points. So we'll see if that ticket splitting survives the fall. But that's what we're seeing at this time.
Well, and Spencer, That's what's so interesting is because here in Washington, the entire entire conversation about the balance of the Senate seems to be centered on Ohio and Montana. Tester and Brown are seen as the most vulnerable Democrats. Is your polling suggesting that maybe they aren't actually as vulnerable as previously thought.
Well, they're vulnerable, don't get me wrong, but they're not you know, they're not losing like Joe Manchin who dropped out of the race in West Virginia because he was trailing in the polls by thirteen points. They're not doing as well as Josh Holly out of Missouri, who's leading by ten. But there's a little struggle for Ted Cruz down in Texas. The bigger concern I would have is out in Arizona, which is an open seat, and those
are tough. Same thing in Michigan. You don't want to just dismiss open seats that the Democrats are going to keep those. But if you get that ticket split, or if there's a momentum towards Biden at the end of the day, we could see the Democrats maybe holding on to the Senate, but obviously losing West Virginia puts it generally at fifty to fifty, So it'll come down to the presidential election if those other seats hold well.
I see as you look ahead to Pennsylvania, you've got Casey over McCormick in the Senate race there forty five percent to forty one percent, which is fascinating here. I don't know when we consider some of the numbers you have on Joe o'biden and Donald Trump. If we can just touch the hypothetical for a moment here as well, Spencer. In a state like Pennsylvania, Donald Trump forty seven, Joe Biden forty three, that's supposed to be home turf for Joe Biden. That's that's a racing.
Site that happens to kind of explain what we're seeing in Pennsylvania. We're seeing it across the country is eighteen to twenty nine year olds are voting more like two thousand or two thousand and four when John Carrey or Al Gore is the nominee and not like when Barack Obama was the candidate. When Obama is the candidate, the youth vote breaks for the Democrats two to one, and they were able to carry that in twenty sixteen with Clinton and to the same extent with Biden in twenty twenty.
What the polling this year is showing is that that youth vote is no longer breaking two to one. It looks maybe by a ten point lead. And that's what Carrie won the youth vote by in two thousand and four, and in some polls it's even it's split. And that's what Bush and Gore looked like in two thousand. So this realignment of political ideology, particularly with the youth vote is something that the Democrats are clearly concerned about.
There's also just the question of the undecided voter Spencer. In that poll that Joe was referencing in Pennsylvania, about ten percent of voterstad they were still undecided in the presidential contest. Do you actually believe that? And is it going to be a matter of undecided voters actually choosing a candidate or whether undecided voters choose.
To vote's that's exactly it. Who comes out in this election? Remember in twenty twenty we had a record turnout. It was during COVID We had over one hundred and fifty five million people vote, fifteen million more than in twenty sixteen. Is that fifteen million going to come out again or did they stay home? And where do they not break? And that's something that both parties are going to be working on. It's a state by state election here, but
that's something that we're looking at too. As far as the enthusiasm gap that we have, and what's interesting is that while Biden might lack enthusiasm on the top of the ticket, these other Democratic candidates like shared Brown, as you mentioned, has more enthusiasm. So it's almost as if these down ballots might be able to carry Biden over the finish line in some of these states.
Wow, it's got reverse coattails coming here, Spencer Kimball. It's good to see it, Spencer. Great to catch up and thanks for sharing these brand new numbers with us. Here for Ohio Emerson College Polling Center executive director. It's good to know important people. Kayley, we got the first look at this stuff. That's fascinating what we could learn tomorrow.
Absolutely, it's going to be an exciting primary race, at least down the ballot in Ohio.
See about itself, not so much on the top. Sure enough.
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Thirty Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee lines in Washington, d C. This is Balance of Power on Bloomberg's and radio, and we're glad you're with us. As Joe Biden today gets on the phone with Benjamin Netanyaho for the first time
in a month. We've talked a bit about the strained relations between the White House and Tel Aviv, of course over policy in Gaza with a looming invasion, if I can use that term of rafa, and it's something that they continue to talk about coming off of Chuck Schumer's address last week in which he called for new elections in Israel. Benjamin Netanya, who reacting to what the majority the leader had to say here, he is what.
He said is totally inappropriate. It's inappropriate for to go to a sister democracy and try to replace the elected leadership there. That's something that Israel, Israeli public does on its own, and we're not a Banana republic.
And we want to turn out to an expert in the Middle East joining us now as Hagar Shamali. She's former director for Syria and Lebanon at the National Security Council. She's now founder and CEO at Greenwich Media Strategies. Hagar are always great to have you here on Bloomberg TV and Radio.
We have gotten a very brief statement from the White House about the call that took place between Biden and Prime Minister Netanyahu today They said that discuss the latest developments in Israel and Gaza, including the situation in Rafa and efforts to serge humanitarian assistance to Gaza. They say a readout is forthcoming. We have not gotten that readout yet.
But what do you hope was communicated by President Biden to Netanyahu on this call, And how do you expect that, Frankly, any communication from the US president right now is being received on the other end.
Well, there are two sides to this at the moment. So on one hand, what President Biden likely did was he had to do a little bit of damage control following Schumer's statement, in particular because for him to go, for sure, to go out and say toward a democracy, toward a country that we are that is an ally
of the United States, that new elections are needed. I'm not one to repeat or pirate Netanyahu's talking points, but that is not the norm for the United States in foreign policy dealing with a democratic government and a democratic friend. In particular, we do say occasionally that elections are needed in countries, but that's where we've seen there to be not free and fair elections, or that there's a dictator and authoritarian who's not respecting democracy or elections. Are that kind?
So to say in this context is is not the way you work with a country like Israel. It's certainly not how you're going to get the Israeli government to cooperate with you, which is Biden's number one goal. So on one hand you probably had to do some damage control, and then the other he had to press really hard and say, listen, Bibi, you're putting me between a rock and a hard place. I want to help you. I've
been supporting you, We've been very clear about that. But your behavior is going to cause a problem for me on Capitol Hill. And that problem could be very real. It could yield, It could result in a halting of aid or less aid or conditional aid. And so therefore you got to work with me, and we have to work on what's happening in Rafa. This is how we see what's going to happen in Rafa if you invade
right now, and it would be catastrophic. As we know, we've talked about it together, about the fact that you have about one point three one point four million gods and refugees who've sought refuge there and without a clear plan. It's hard for the US, for US as your friend, to back you up. So that's probably two sides of the conversation he had in beb This was.
In the air yesterday at the White House Higuard during the Saint Patrick's Day celebration. The Prime Minister of Ireland spoke about this publicly while he was with the President. Speaking with reporters, he said, quote, the Irish people have such empathy for the Palestinian people unquote, And the President said that t Shock and I agree about the urgent need to increase humanitarian aid in Gaza and get the
cease fire deal? Is that what led to this phone call this morning when Benjamin nettya who is hearing about conversations like these that the President is having openly.
Well, from what I understand from my friends in Washington, this is the situation in Rafa and the humanitarian situation in general in Gaza is top of mind for the Bide administration. This is something that they're actively working on
on a daily basis. They have people traveling to Israel regularly trying to press the Israeli government on the need to open more roots, to get more humanitarian in to inspect things faster, to open a maritime things of this kind, and so I don't know that that itself was what precipitated this call. I think in general you have regular communication,
but when you see the situation you have. Now you have the UN saying that people are in danger of death because of famine and that it is an emergency, and you've got the US air dropping aid, which we both know is the most inefficient and expensive the way to do this, which only reflects how desperate the US government is to try and send some help in. Then that's all of that together is likely what precipitated this.
Well.
As we think about the efforts to get aid into Goza, there's also a question of what operations the Isle Defense Force may still undertake in Gaza. We know that there was another move on a hospital in Gaza City in the last several days. In Rafa, of course, remains a question, as it seems that Israel and Netniahu specifically still is indicating the number one priority is to take out Hamas
to the extent that they can do. We have an understanding, Hagar of just how close they are to accomplishing that goal.
It's a little difficult because the US has come out the US officials have said that they believe that the Israeli military has taken out about a third of Hamas's fighters, and Israel has has said things that are a bit similar to that. Actually, maybe they maybe they flighted those
numbers a little bit more. But it's a little bit complicated because on one hand, you have the US saying that, and I having worked in the US government, obviously I have a reason to believe when the comes out with these figures, they don't really they don't say that unless they're pretty certain of them. But also the part that's complicated the fact that you have Nittan Yahoo coming out and saying that that they're at the tail end. And he said that, he said, we're at the very end.
We just need to go to Rafa and we need to control Rafa, and then we're at the end. And I want to be clear when he says that, what he means is that they're at the after Rafa, after an operation in Rafa, which would be the last the last area city that is that is not under Israeli military control, that operations might transition to something that's lower intensity, but that the war wouldn't The entire war wouldn't end. The effort to undermine Hamas to go after its fighters
wouldn't end. From what I can see and have studied, it's that you still have those tunnel networks are very active in supporting Hamas and keeping them alive. Apparently they're warfare at the moment. While they are definitely on the other end of they're losing. Hamas is losing. That's very clear. What they've been what they've been doing now is retreating in tunnels and they'll pop out, they'll do an attack, and they'll retreat again. And so that is what the
Israeli government is focused on. And the way the Israeli government sees this is they cannot they cannot just retreat right now because if they did, then everything that has happened thus far, without defeating Hamas's ability to launch attacks to govern Gaza, then everything would have been for nothing. And that's how these are the military season, that's how
these are the government sees it. So while I believe that Yahoo met when he says that the end is near, what he means is that for the high intensity part after Rafa happens. But I don't want to make it sound as though that wouldn't have severe humanitarian consequences, because.
It would, right sure, Reguard, there were reports a couple of weeks back that Israel was beginning to flood the tunnels beneath Gaza with seawater. Is that how this ends?
Some of them have been flooded with seawater, some of them is The Israel government has called in Israeli engineers to also come in and dismantle or destroy some of these tunnels. They from what I from what I from what they say, They say that this won't end until they've destroyed all the tunnels. And I believe that because
they don't invade Gaza often. This is this They they haven't been physically in Gaza since two thousand and six, two thousand and five, where they left and and and given the threat and October seven and what they faced, they feel that they must dismantle everything that supports Hamas, that props them up, that keep them living and u And you can tell that the US government degrees with that somewhat, because otherwise the US would be calling for
an immediate, permanent ceasefire right now, and they're not. They're calling for a temporary one because they want to they want to get some hostages released. They want to gain some time so that maybe they can lay the groundwork for a permanent ceasefire. But that permanent ceasefire could only take place if Hamas isn't governing Gaza, So they want to create the space for that in a way that
isn't such doesn't create such humanitarian devastation and catastrophe. But that's but at the end, both sides agree on the need to defeat Hamas completely. It's just that the US would like to see it in an approach that protects civilians as much as possible.
Gar.
It's great to have you back. Thanks for the insights. Higar Shamali now at Greenwich Media Strategies, formerly National Security Council. Thanks for being with us, Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.