Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play and then Freud Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines on a special edition of Balance of Power.
Welcome to Election Day, Kaylie, we made it.
After many twists and terms in this campaign, there's no more campaigning, only time to vote.
Indeed, as we have just seen Donald Trump do. Kamala Harris of course is also and did her campaign. She will be in DC while Donald Trump is in Florida this evening as we all wait for the tally to come in. At this point, it is no longer about trying to convince American voters who to vote for. It's just showing up to vote at all, if they decide to do so today. Keeping in mind that to calculate to tabulate all of these votes to get that final
tally could take some time. Knowing that more than eighty million Americans voted early before this election.
That's absolutely right, a staggering number here, coming off of what we saw during the pandemic, these are numbers that many people never saw coming. Polls could not be tighter. This is an election that we have been set up here with a true tie. It's essentially fifty to fifty at the top of the ticket, and that goes for a lot of races down ballot as well. Even the voters of Dixville Notch couldn't figure it out, Kayley, six
of them. They tied three to three after going on in for Joe Biden in twenty twenty.
Yeah, and keeping in mind that at one point in this race, it was Joe Biden that was going to be the Democratic nominee for president. But clearly a lot has changed. This twenty twenty four election cycle has been unlike any other. And here's a reminder of what we've all been through.
Well, the democracy is still America's sacred cause.
Is the most urgent question of our time, and it's what the twenty four election is all about.
They call it for Tuesday for a reason.
This is a big one and we have no choice because November fifth right around the corner.
If we finally beat medicare.
Thank you, President Biden, President Trump, who He's right.
He did beat medicaid, beat it to death.
If I had not moved my head at that very last instant, the assassin's bullet would have perfectly hit its mark, and I would not be here tonight.
You know, there is a time and a place for long years of experience in public life.
There's also a time and a place for new voices.
You can always trust me to put country above party and self.
We have inflation like very few people have ever seen before.
Donald Trump left us the worst unemployment since the Great Depression.
America would be bigger, better, boulder, richer, safer, and stronger than before.
We are optimistic and excited about what we can do together.
To think we've gone through all of this together, bringing us now to this moment. On election Day, we start our coverage on the ground with Bloomberg's David Gora, who is in Philadelphia right now. Of course, the big prize tonight Pennsylvania, and David, we may not know by tomorrow who won it, that's.
Right, Joe. And so you know, the weather here is beautiful.
I want to say that first of all, and I think that's a positive sign for those who are going to cast.
Their ballots today.
This is a state that really put a lot of emphasis on voting early, and the way that's done here is through mail in ballots.
People requested them, they were sent them, they.
Could return them through the postal service or go to county offices to bring them back in. Those who didn't do that or didn't do that on time are going to the polls today and the lines are long across this state. I've been checking in with officials across the state from both parties, Democrats and Republicans, and they say turnout is good.
But everyone is acknowledging the fact that this is.
As you put it, a thin race at the top of the ticket and all the way down. And we've seen that narrowing in these recent weeks, looking at those most recent polls, the New York Times Siena College poll putting this as a dead heat.
Looking at the Senate race.
In this state, we've seen that narrowing as well over these last few weeks. So everyone aware of the stakes here, the importance of Pennsylvania, those nineteen electoral College votes, and looking at history acknowledging the fact that most routes.
To the presidency do come through this state.
And as I was in front of the Philadelphia Art Museum behind me last night, that was a refrain we heard over and over again from speakers who are there on behalf of Vice President Harris acknowledging the fact that this state is important to that campaign. Of course, you'd hear the same thing from the former president Donald Trump's campaign as well.
They both know that this state is crucial.
Well, certainly with its nineteen electoral votes. But David, you mentioned the down ballot race is there we are watching as well, including the incumbent Senator Bob Casey facing a challenger in Dave McCormick, former Bridgewater executive. Is there a sense that someone can win that Senate race if they're already does not also win the state at the presidential level.
Republicans certainly hope. So when I mentioned that recent polling, for a while, Senator Casey, the incumbent Democrat, had a nine percentage point lead in that race. It has narrowed to five in that New York Times Siena College poll. And we have seen the way that that race has been framed here come into finer focus in recent days. So there have been kind of small missteps made by Dave McCormick. Him pronouncing jungling incorrectly was not a good move here at the beginning of the race.
But he made some.
Remarks about the Affordable Care Act more recently in a video that was recorded surreptitiously, saying he wasn't in favor of people up to the age of twenty six being able to stay on their parents' healthcare plan. That is something that we've heard Senator Casey bring up time and time again. Most recently is last night in that rally here in Philadelphia. It is something that got a lot of applause him saying that he wanted to keep that provision in place here in this race.
I was in Wisconsin last week. This is an issue that came up there as well.
This notion among Republicans that they might re visit the Affordable Care Act make changes to healthcare policy in this country is something that Democrats are sort of raising the specter of to state a voter's look, this policy is in place. Republicans who are trying to challenge it could make rather draconian or extreme changes to that piece of legislation. I should say Bob Casey comes from Pennsylvania, political royalty. His dad was the governor of the state two times.
He's a known quantity not from Philadelphia, but from Scranton, and so he is trying his hardest here to secure that fourth term.
All right, Bloomberg's David gera life in Pennsylvania on this election day, Thank you so much. Now we want to turn to another part of the Rustfeld, another battleground state we are watching this evening, and that to Michigan, where we find Bloomberg's remain bostic in Detroit. So remain. We remember during the primary season one hundred thousand voters in protest choosing not to vote for what was then candidate
Joe Biden in Michigan. It's a question of what those one hundred thousand and of the rest of the voters in this state will do today.
Absolutely, and both candidates spent the last final days of their campaign in the state of Michigan really trying to make their case. Of course, Trump closing it out in the early morning hours today in Grand Rapids, Michigan, not even taking the stage until after midnight. While his speech generally hit on some of the main themes that he's been known for through this campaign, he made it clear that voter turnout was going to be a big factor here in the state of Michigan. And there's a big
reason why he joined here. While he did joke a little bit here about superstition, he closed out his twenty sixteen and twenty twenty campaigns in Grand Rapids as well. But Kent County, which where Grand Rapids sit, is a potentially big swing county. In fact, when you talk about the swing state of Michigan, most people talk about two swing counties.
Oakland, the more prosperous.
County that encompasses the Detroit suburbs right where I'm standing, and Kent County, a more middle class area out far west, closer to Lake Michigan. These have become big barometers here for how the state of Michigan goes. Remember, Kent County actually went for Trump back in twenty six team, though it went for Biden in twenty twenty. It also went for Obama back in eight before turning to Romney in twenty twelve.
Make of that what you will here, but.
Both candidates both campaigns feel that they have to went Kent County as well as Oakland County if they want to win Michigan.
Great set up.
Romaine joining us from the Northwest Activities Center polling location. Awfully busy in Detroit today, Romaine Bostik, thank you so much for being in the field for us on this election day. As we assemble our political panel. Can't have an election day without Rick Davis, partner at Stone Court Capital, Republican strategist, and Jeanie Schanzano, Democratic analyst, political science professor at Iona University. Great to see you both here. We finally made it. I just want to know what's going
through both of your minds here. We're walking into a race that is absolutely deadlocked. Nobody knows what's about to happen, So how do you watch it?
Rick?
I love election days As a former campaign manager. It was the day that I had to myself you couldn't buy any more TV, no more rallies, no more mail programs to approve it's fantastic. You just got to make sure that your ground games out there turn vote, and I think that's critical. I think we're now in the closest race in modern history. It's the fewest number of targeted states swing states and has got the closest polling in any one of those swing states we've ever seen. So ground game matters.
You know, when you interview.
Polsters, what do you think, what do you think ground game?
That's when they like punt.
Forget all the data, it's ground game. And I think that's correct. And so we know that Kamala Harris is invested heavily. She's got thousands of employees all over the country and these targeted states turning out vote. And Donald Trump is relying on Elon Musk. So is must the hero of the Republican Party coming in, swooping in with his dollars in technology and saving the ground game or not? And so I think that's what's got everybody on edge.
So we'll start seeing the results of that earlier tonight.
Well, so as we.
Consider the ground game genie, that can't really be captured properly in polls necessarily, right, for all of the talk about how tight the margin is, and pretty much every poll you look at, whether it's at the national level or in the battleground states, they can't capture enthusiasm in the likelihood of turnout.
Really yeah, it's really difficult. And what we hear is that two percent if these polls are off by two percent. That could be the difference between changing this thing, that it's done fast and somebody runs away with it, or it's as tight as we've all been seeing. And you know, I too have been watching how close this is, and it is historically close. But I think the other thing we should remember is what's at stake here, because this
is what the campaigns are telling us. On the Republican side, we hear from Donald Trump, the country is over if Kamala Harris wins. And from the Democrats we hear democracy is over if Donald Trump wins. I mean, those are some high stakes we're hearing from these campaigns.
And think about it.
Donald Trump, if he loses, is facing jail. If he wins, he'll have probably more power than any modern president in American history. And Kamala Harris, if she wins, breaks all kinds of glass ceilings, woman Indian. I mean, the stakes could not be higher tonight, And so I too love election night. I'm very excited, but I'm also a little bit a little bit of anxiety. I think so many voters have not knowing in the last two years we've been hearing so much of what our lives are about is.
At stake here.
We have no shortage of anxiety at the best care. I wonder Rick you hard thought on the closings. Kamala Harris on the rocky steps said the momentum is on our side and never publicly for a second day mentioned the name of her opponent, Donald Trump, went through a couple of swing states ended up in grand rapids. As Romayne mentioned referring to her low IQ, the contrast couldn't be greater.
Yeah, one is finishing a campaign that has been framed on negativity. Donald Trump. It's how he campaigns, It's who he is, right, It's all about grievance and retribution. And he hadn't changed that at all, and he has the backing of the economy in his back. He could have focused on how he was going to change that, as he did in his first term in twenty sixteen, but
he didn't. He went ahead and said, I'm going to be the guy that you know ruffles feathers, and I must admit I think Kamala Harris took a shot at that kind of strategy right coming out of her convention. She went negative on Donald Trump, and I think since then she's pulled up the Rudders. She's now sailing into a very positive close and I think she does think she has momentum, and being negative is not a good
conducive act for being someone with momentum. So what she's trying to do is create excitement, create positivity around her clothes, obviously surrounded by celebrities and stars and big rallies and entertainment. That is the campaign of someone who thinks they're going to win. Donald Trump is wearing a campaign and thinks somebody's going to lose.
And yet the polls would suggest that neither of those things are abundantly clear at this point. But some of these very same polls are, because we were just discussing with David Gera in Pennsylvania, for example, show that there's wider margins in the down ballot races and the Senate races, and some of these very seen battleground states we are talking about, the Democrats are pulling far ahead of Kamala Harris. So what does that indicate to you about how things are likely to go.
It's not unusual.
I mean, there's usually separation between the presidential candidate and the down ballot. For instance, in two thousand and eight, when I ran John McCain's camp, he ran nine percent higher in his ballot than the congressional ballot. In other words, all the people who voted for Republicans in Congress got nine percent less vote, So you had almost a ten percent vote swing between the top of the ticket and that down ballot. So it's always sort of, you know,
moving around. In the case of the Democrats, it's reverse where the down ballot's doing better in the state. Now, the question that we all are going to find out tonight is was there e merging of that ballot? Did Kamala Harris get the benefit of a strong Democratic base in especially these blue wall states that elected three popular governors two years ago that were significantly higher in the
percentages that they got than she's showing right now. If she gets their vote, she wins those three states.
Want to get the sake of the Polster at the table here with the final calls, John Ralston, Nevada Independent Harris winning the state by three tenths of a point, Jackie Rosen getting back to Rick's point, winning by five. Big gap there. Larry Sabada, who we know from the
program quite a bit. Larry's crystal ball predicting Harris winning the Blue Wall plus Nevada Republicans flipping the Senate dem slipping the House in five thirty eight gives Harris a fifty percent chance of victory Trump forty nine.
What do you think of these numbers?
Yeah, I mean, I'd never argue with John Ralston out there because he knows what's going on out there, and so those are, you know, very good signs for Rosen. It's been touch and go out there. Larry Sabato as well. I have a lot of Democratic friends who are very anxious right now. So the scenarios that they're describing are very very positive. But you know, it's just really not fair to call these if we're going to believe what
the polls say. And I think one of the reckonings we have tomorrow with the polls, either they are right on target and this thing goes down to the wire, or they have miscalculated to the degree they did in twenty sixteen and twenty twenty underestimating Donald Trump's get out the vote. So it's really hard responsibly to say at this point who's ahead and who's behind.
Well, as we consider the group of voters that has voted already is incredibly large. More than eighty three million people voted before election day of an eligible electorate of just two hundred and forty four million. Even Donald Trump was referencing this when we just heard him speak in Florida. Genie and the idea that Republicans showed up early to a degree which we did not see in twenty twenty. What is that signal about what we're likely to see as the results begin.
Getting reported tonight.
Yeah, we're probably not going to see as dramatic a mirage effect as we did in twenty twenty, where Democrats voting rather Republicans voting same day, So those numbers came in a little later than some of the early vote counts and vice versa in the West. But you know,
it is interesting. One thing we don't give Donald Trump rather credit for is the fact that since he has been in our lives politically for the last decade, the voter turnout in this country has increased dramatically sixteen, eighteen, twenty twenty two, and now it looks like twenty four. He is the master of the get out the vote, and he is trying this time to do it with young people and young men who aren't likely to get
out regularly. But he is very, very good at this get out the vote drive, and he's turned it over to Elon Musk, but you know, he doesn't really need much help. He's very good at it himself.
Just a minute, Rick, If Donald Trump wins tonight, this will be a very loud message about early voting in the Republican Party and a huge win for the RNC who got the party's arms around this.
You know, I think it started a couple of years ago when the party invested heavily in voter registration. We've seen massive voter registration increases with Republicans in these swing states. Arizona went from one hundred and twenty thousand advantage to three hundred thousand advantage in this election cycle. Very similar increases in Pennsylvania. So when you have more registered Republicans to turn out, it advantages you at the front end. Then on top of that, I do think Genie's got
a good point. I don't think the Republicans that support Donald Trump need a lot of effort. They are low propensity voters. In other words, they don't show up to vote in every election, so they're a questionable group. But they show up when Donald Trump's on the ballot. And that's what got undercounted in twenty sixteen and twenty.
We'll find out about twenty twenty four. Rick Davis and g Shanzino, our signature political panel.
Thank you.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then Rodoto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa play. Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Remarkable, especially in the last drop we got Sienna and The New York Times. Abortion creeping up to challenge the economy in some constituencies as the number one issue in.
This election well, and an important reminder that abortion is on the ballot in ten states today, including states like Florida for example, where we're watching a Senate race that is perhaps tighter than expected. And it is of course the first presidential election that we are seeing since the Dobbs decision and the overturning of Roe versus Wade, and it raises the question specifically of what kind of turnout
driver it will be considering the force. We sow it to be in the midterms in twenty twenty two and in special elections that have followen.
We know that this is an issue with a lot of potency. It's unquantifiable what the impact will be on the outcome. As we heard both campaigns lean into this issue on this campaign cycle.
Let's listen.
Who when he was president hands selected three members of the United States Supreme Court with the intention that they would undo the protections of Roe v.
Wade.
And they did just as he intended. And there are now twenty states with Trump abortion bands, including bands that make no exception from rape or incest.
Every Democrat, every Republican, liberal, conservative, they all wanted this issue to be brought back to the states where the people could vote.
Joining us now for more Here in balance of power is Democratic Senator of Illinois Dick Dervitt, who chairs the Senate Judiciary Committee. Senator, Happy election day, Thank you so much for joining us. I'm not sure your degree of confidence at this hour of Kamala Harris's ability to win this election. But if she does so, to what extent do you think the Dobbs decision and the Supreme Court will have played a role in that.
I think it's a major factor. I can just tell you it motivates not just women to vote for Kamala, but a lot of men are joining in the ranks. And I see it with younger voters too. They look at the actual cases of these women facing miscarriages, trying to find competent physicians, and states where there are criminal penalties being threatened, and they understand that they don't want to be in that position. It doesn't sound like America to them, and it doesn't sound like it to me either.
Well, how are you feel about things going into this election day, Senator? You've had a couple of them in your career. Illinois is not a swing state. It's not going to be one of the states likely to decide the balance of power in Washington, on Capitol Hill or the next president.
So where are you looking?
Well, I'll tell you what I'm looking for, and I've seen it this last weekend and before. We have literally hundreds, if not thousands of Illinois volunteers who are going into Wisconsin to help Tammy Baldwin in the Michigan to help Alissa Slotkin, into Pennsylvania to help Bob Casey in the bottom line to make sure that Kamala is elected president. These are real volunteers who care and are making personal sacrifices to help. I don't know what's going on the
other side. There's no evidence of this similar and undertaking. And you can't buy this kind of support. It's like comparing mom's apple pie is something you bought at a store. It just isn't the same thing. These folks really care, and if we do well in the blue range, the blue wall that they talk about here, I think it'll be because of this factor.
Well, as you raised the likes of incumbent Senators Tammy Baldwin and others who are facing tough re election fights today as well. Senator, it raises the question of even if Kamala Harris is able to pull off this victory, the prevailing wisdom is that you will become a member of the minority, that the Republicans will be able to flip the Senate, as they only need to pick up net two seats. How would Washington work in that scenario. Where are the areas for cooperation?
That's a very good question, but I'm not going to concede your point that it's going to be a Republican Senate. We need one or two break through and I can point to the states you can too that are possibilities. If God forbid, the Republicans take control of the Senate and Kamala is our president, it's going to be a matter of negotiating questions like filling vacancies and judgeships and working together. I hope we can find that common ground.
Well, how much, Senator, then, will the top of the ticket help to determine the balance of power in the US Senate? When we look at some of the Senate races in the Blue Wall states, for instance, how close they are Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. Will the presidency help to decide the balance of power in your chamber?
Well, I think you addressed that earlier in the program. In some years, it appears that it helps, In some it hurts. I will just tell you that those three senatorial candidates and many others we talked about, certainly have a strong record and a strong message to bring to
the voters. Kamala is put together an amazing campaign in a little over one hundred days that she's been the nominee, and I think the fact that she's inspired so many volunteers to go door to door in these states going to make a definitive difference in these Senate races as well well.
As we watch all of this and the issues voters will be considering as they make their choices up and down the ballot, Senator, do you feel that Harris campaign has done an adequate job addressing all of them? We obviously have heard a lot of her argument around reproductive freedom, especially casting Trump as a threat to democracy talking about the economy, Yes, but so too has Donald Trump, who has cast a lot of blame for the last four years and the inflation people have experienced on her in
this administration, seeing those for the border. Are those the issues that she risks losing on if that's how it turns out tonight.
I don't think so, and I'll tell you why. From the beginning, Kamala has made the economy the issue. That's what the voters are saying, and she's beckoning them up by saying that'll be a high priority in her administration. But I'll also tell you when she talks about the management style of Donald Trump, the question about the future of our democracy is at stake here. He's a candidate who's running and basically says, if I lose, it means that there is cheating and somebody stole it from me.
He's stuck with that story for four years, the big lie. This is an even bigger lie if he does and that similar circumstance. I think she's talking about our democracy, which is a fundamental issue at stake in this election.
Well, with that said, Senator, and based on your perch on the Judiciary Committee, donald Trump appointed over two hundred federal judges in his term. What would a Trump two point zero mean for the US judiciary.
Well, that's a good question. Under the rules of the Senate, for example, we have something called a blue slip, which means that both parties and their senators have quite a bit of a say as to whether a nominee is going to move forward. So there has to be compromise in that regard. But I will tell you that Donald Trump, with the help of Democrats, had two hundred and thirty
four nominations filled in his four years. We have filled two hundred and thirteen under President Biden, and have another twenty plus on the calendar for the remainder of the year. So we can matching.
I hope we do well.
If we consider as well the highest court in the land, the Supreme Court. Senator, there is a chance the next president will have some vacancies to fill. Would a President Harris have difficulty doing so depending on what the Senate majority looks like.
Well, it is a simple majority in the Senate when it comes to filling the Supreme Court vacancies. And that's why Trump was able to put three anti choice justices on the Court. If we're going to move forward and the circumstances you're describing with President Harris and a Republican Senate, there will have to be compromises made. It's the only way we can pass something, even by majority in the Senate.
Senator.
Last time we sat down with you was in Chicago for the Democratic National Convention, and one of the big storylines going into the DNC it was the protest vote that we saw materialize in the primaries, the uncommitted vote that Joe Biden withstood and faced in many cases from Arab American voters and others who were not happy with
many progressives not happy with the policy in Israel. Expectations for widespread protests that the DNC never materialized, though, and I wonder if you see that being a risk tonight for Kamala Harris, or if this is a media narrative.
There are so many elements go into this decision making process, but the fear at the outset was that there would be a boycott support of Democratic candidates over Middle Eastern issues. I think once Donald Trump was articulate in his own way as to where he stood, people realize there's too much at stake to lose this race over that issue.
It will affect some voters for sure, but I think by and large we understand that Kamala Harris has a rational, thoughtful approach to this which wants to end the conflict soon and help on a humanitarian side as quickly as possible.
Any election day rituals, superstitions you want to share with us, Senator.
There's a great delicatessen in Chicago called Manny's and Amona way there now every election day for the last twenty plus years, I've gone there, and I'm looking forward to Cornby Sandwiches.
That sounds good.
I hope you have a great lunch.
Senator Dick Durbin of Illinois, We thank you, as always for the time. We're also watching, of course, how markets are moving on this election day. This is a big part of the story for us here on Bloomberg, and we turned to Bloomberg Markets correspondent Abigail do Little for more on this. You wouldn't think it was a contested election with the way the markets are moving today, Abigail, what do you.
Think you went at all?
Given the fact that you have the S and P five hundred and the NAZAC both up more than one percent. For the S and P five hundred, this is the best day in about six weeks. We have the index at session highs. We've had more recently these small moves up and down the churn on the uncertainty. So when we connect today's move to the intersection between business and politics, one observation could be a potential Donald Trump administration could
be harsh on big tech. Big tech is driving today's moves, so that might be a little bit of a nod against Donald Trump. On the other hand, when we take a look at the Trump trade over the last three months and basically the amount of time since VP Kamala Harris has been in the race, well it's doing pretty well. That tech index is higher, so again you could have that interpretation around Donald Trump. You have the Solar ETF in a nod toward Kamala Harris. But take a look
at bitcoin, take a look at DJT. Both of these are higher. So market's a little bit mixed. But that Trump trade that everybody has been talking about really pretty strong into today.
Well, as we consider these trades, Abigail, I know you always keep a close eye on volatility. That could go for both the equity market and the bond market. With the move index, what signals is it sending today?
It's interesting, So we do have heightened volatility. That vix is above a twenty, and that does signal uncertainty on the part of investors. Now relative to the VIX, it's at some of the higher levels that it's been at more recently. Some could say that this is investors taking advantage of the uncertainty, candidate agnostic, that they're just trying
to make money off of this volatility. However, there are some other folks on the street, including Steve Sasnika over at Interactive Brow course you yesterday told me that he sees a lot of big institutions hedging. That's why on Monday, the put to call ratio those bearish options versus bullish options at the highest level since twenty twenty. So this
is not unusual for an election cycle. But right now that Vick's coming back in, so investors seem to be a little bit calm surprisingly on this election day.
All right, Gil, what are we going to be in for tonight in the overnight session if we have no race call.
Well, if there's no race call and there's any sense that there could be a contested election, you could see the futures go very negative. Back in two thousand, between I believe, let's call it twelve am of the day after election through the bottom in December, stocks down sharply. Investors don't like uncertainty. That is certainly uncertainty investors wuldn't like, and at that point you'd probably see that VIX spike back higher.
All right, Bloomberg Markets correspondent Abigail Dolittle, thank you so much, Joe. As Abigail talks about the kind of calm we might be seeing, I guess that race is the question of how everyone is feeling on this election day. Keeping in mind there's not much more that can be done at this point. The arguments have been made. The ground game has been at work for months, and now it's just a matter of how many people show up and cast.
Their Well, that's absolutely right. There's no more cramming for the test.
Although it's interesting to consider the positioning for volatility in either direction. We've seen market fits in both directions when Trump was leading or Paris was perceived to be leading. There's going to be money to be made either way. We just have no idea which one that will be.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Eppo CarPlay and then roud outo with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
I think it's very important to not operate from the assumption that black men are in anybody's pocket. Black men are like any other voting group. You got to earn their vote. So I'm working to earn the vote, not assuming I'm going to have it because I am black.
Joining us now for more from Bloomberg's Washington DC Bureau or two special guests. Martin Luther King, the third chairman of the Drum Major Institute and son of the late doctor Martin Luther King Junior and Andrea Waters King, president of the Drum Major Institute. Welcome to you both. Thank
you for being here on Bloomberg on this election day. Martin, if I could just begin with you, Kamala Harris has not throughout her campaign leaned into the historic nature of her candidacy, not only that she would be a woman potentially elected president, but a black and South Asian woman at that. What does it mean to you as you spent so much of your life fighting for equality.
Well, I think it demonstrates that people are very concerned about the issues, not necessarily the fnic and the fact that we've had a black president and not a woman that is extraordinarily important. However, I think stand on the issues is what people How is my life going to change under your leadership? And I think she's demonstrated what she intends to do if she becomes president of the United States.
Ardfred, do you agree, because the potential to make history is very compelling to some voters here when you back off this race, that's been a major backdrop since Kamala Harris reached the top of the ticket. Or is it in fact, kitchen table issues that drive people today.
I think it's a combination of both. Obviously as a black woman and as the mother of a black daughter, it is something that we are extremely proud of to have the vice president hopefully soon to be president heading our country. Also, we're also at a time when women have progressively lost rights, and so I think that you're seeing women coming together and standing together and in fact, we really might be the deciding vote in this election today.
Well, it certainly could be women that ultimately make or break this thing for Kamala Harrison, although will depend on turnout, and that is what both of these candidates Andrea have been really fighting for in the final stretch here. Are you confident that voters are going to be getting off the couches and participating in this election.
Absolutely. We have spent so many weeks and months ourselves out with the canvassers. We were just in North Fulton on Friday, and I'll tell you, the excitement that we are seeing is something that since the announcement of this candidacy up until now, is something that's continuing to grow. And we saw that in the numbers of early voting, certainly in Georgia breaking records, and we also are seeing
that in early voting around the country. I do think that we're going to continue that's going that will uphold today.
Mister King, I wonder your thoughts over the past couple of months some of the rhetoric that we've heard on the campaign trail. We just opened with comments that Kamala Harris made before the NABJ. Donald Trump had some comments to the NABJ as well that questioned her racial identity, and it's a narrative that he has pushed through the course of this cycle. Some have called it corrosive, some have called it dated, Some say it doesn't matter.
What do you think?
Well, I think that it should be irrelevant the ethnicity again.
Of a person.
It should be We maybe haven't gotten theiled with some people, but as it relates to black men, specifically black men, I believe are going to support overwhelmingly the candidacy of the vice president to help her become the president, along with a vast coalition of others.
But Donald Trump has spent a great deal of time vying for the vote of black men and talking about how he is doing better with them than Republicans have in the past, and considering mister King that you said issues are ultimately what matters here. What issue is it that there is a disconnect with at least some black men and Kamala Harrison the idea she has put forward.
So I think when you talk about the prospect of supporting small and disadvantaged businesses, when you talk about getting a loan that might be forgivable. I think when you talk about the fact that reducing prices, I mean black men, like every man wants to be able to take care of their families. Every woman wants to be able to take care of their families. And when you talk about these bread and butter issues, I believe there is an
opening there, there's support. I just think that at the end of the day, the vast majority of black people are going to be supportive of the vice president.
May I also add, we also are talking about someone who said that he won the last election, and we also are talking about someone who said that he had audiences the largest in inauguration history, or audiences that were larger than the March on Washington, no matter what photo evidence stated to the contrary. So let's talk about the facts when they come out. Let's not necessarily take Donald Trump at his word.
Well, Andrea Waters King, tell me how you would describe then, some of the racial rhetoric that we've heard on the campaign, culminating with that massive Trump rally at Madison Square Garden that had jokes that we couldn't tell on the air.
Not only jokes that we wouldn't tell on the air, those are things that we teach our children that are wrong. You know, I worked for many years monitoring hate groups and hate crimes such as the klu Klut's Plan, Neo Nazis, and skinheads, and it is very alarming for me to see the very rhetoric that we were researching at the time actually now being said from the anals of some
of the highest levels of power in our land. And also to not only see this type of these words that are being saying, but also seeing those things being passed into laws. So it is very troubling, which is why I think that we're going to see, and we have seen, such a strong standing for unity in this country, for a path forward, for turning that page on the hate and the visiveness of the past.
And let me add one thing, because the question is what is sustainable most people understand when we're building a world of peace and justice and righteousness, if you're advocating vitriol, it is not sustainable. My dad would say, we must learn non violence or we may face non existence. We don't want to face that. We're going to face building. What my father and mother would say is the beloved community.
Well and so much, sir. Of what they were fighting for was the right to vote. And obviously many more people, in part because of their work, do have the right to vote today. But given in the lead up to this election some of the legal action, we have seen questions around who can and cannot be purged from voter rules this close to an election, how ballots can be counted,
which ballots are valid if there are mistakes. Do you have concerns about the right to vote being rolled back for at least some segments of the population.
I certainly always have concerns. I've always wondered why we purge people from voting. But yet we can drive as drivers forever and you're never removed from the driving roles. If you understand the analogy, The fact is you may not vote one year or two years, but you shouldn't be removed. You still have that right, but yet we orchestrate the kind of results that we want to see. And I think those who say, let's support the John Lewis Voting Rights Bill, which all people need, not any
one ethnic group, that's the right course. And the hope is that Kamala Harris wins and in fact the legislative bodies will pass that legislation for once and for all.
Or if there's an expectation that Democrats will take control of the House, do you see some hope for the John Lewis Voting Rights Bill in Washington if that happens.
Absolutely. We have been working for that federal legislation for years now, and we have confirmation from soon to be President Kamala Harris that that is something that she will push forward. I think, with the power of the House behind her, that that will become an ultimate reality. And you know that people have talked about the fact that, yes, there's been record turnouts, that does not mean that we do not need to secure federal voting rights once and
for all. Our daughter has progressively lost rights since the day that she was born. The crowning achievement of voting that was her grandparents' legacy has been eroded. Yes, we've had great organizers, but we should not continue to fight that battle. Voting rights are birthrights and should be in this country.
I want to thank you both for an important conversation with us in our Washington Bureau. Martin Luther King the third ar Andrea Waters King, thank you for joining us today.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then ron Oto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Bleiden, where we had the highest inflation in forty years. The bottom fifty percent of workers are getting crushed.
You know.
I call it the three eyes inflation, interest rates, and immigration. And if you want more of that, then you should vote for it.
Biden wanted much higher taxes.
Kamala Harris came into twenty eight percent for tax rate for cap gains and twenty eight percent for corporation and did not say a word and will not say a word about unrealized capital gains.
And so I think she's completely different.
Scott Bessen and Mark Cuban there with their views of the economic proposals coming from both campaigns, and it's an opportunity now to bring in Michael Wattley.
We've been looking.
Forward to talking with the Chairman of the Republican National Committee. He's with us from the Washington, DC area at RNC headquarters. Mister Chairman, welcome to Bloomberg TV and Radio bluftask and we'll get to the situation in North Carolina and your expectations for what happens tonight. But broadly speaking, this is our opportunity to ask the Chairman what he's hearing. I know you have people fanned out around the country looking at poles, looking at returns.
Can you give us an update.
Yeah.
What I would say is, coming into election day, Republicans were really poised to have a fantastic day. When you look at voter registration numbers, you look at the early vote, the absentee ballot requests and returns, all of that put the Republicans in a great position to win. We had an outright lead in states like Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina, and we substantially narrowed the leads that Democrats typically have going into election day in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
So you put all of that together with a robust turnout on election day, that makes us feel fairly comfortable that we're going to have a good night tonight. As I told the President, if you know you're in a good position to win on election day, we just have to win on election day well.
And it becomes a question of how that win would happen. Mister Chairman, what is the path your most confident in at this hour. Does it run through the sun Belt or the Rust Belt?
I think you need a combination of the two.
Right now, what we're seeing right is a good solid lead for the Republicans in Arizona, Nevadage, Georgia, North Carolina. We feel comfortable that we will be able to carry the day with those states given our traditional you know, election day patterns, and then we would need at that point in time to just pick off one of Wisconsin, Michigan,
and Pennsylvania. We have small but durable leads in the polls in all of those states, very solid performance during the early vote period, so we're very anxious and ready to go for those three states.
We'd love to hear from the aforementioned Mick mulvaney, mister Wattley talking about North Carolina.
He just got back.
From the state and described his trip across North Carolina what he was seeing on the ground.
Let's listen.
I drove from Raleigh, North Carolina to Charlotte this weekend through the back roads, and I got to tell you, I think you're going to see North Carolina go for Kamala Harris. I think Donald Trump is going to walk to Georgia a win in Georgia, but may well lose North Carolina.
As the former chair of the state's Republican Party, Michael Watley.
What do you say to that.
I feel very good about North Carolina.
The first time in the history of the state, Republicans actually have a lead coming out of the early vote absenteev of vote here, the pulling looks very, very solid. North Carolina has always been a purple state. It's always been a battleground state. It's a very tight It was our most narrow wind in twenty twenty for President Trump. But we do like the numbers and we have a great team on the ground there.
We heard from former President Trump earlier today after he voted in Florida, suggesting that so far he thinks this election has been fair. He said that as of roughly noon today, mister chairman, and the question is going to be what we hear from Donald Trump later on this evening. Do you expect, regardless of whether the final tally is in or not, that Donald Trump will be declaring victory by the end of tonight.
We'll just have to wait and see what those results look like.
But you're not you're confident that he won't prematurely declare victory.
I would just have to say, we will wait and see what those results look like. If we have fair, accurate, secure and transparent elections, then we would be glad to acknowledge those and move forward.
Understood, Let's get into that for a moment, because we had a bomb threat turned out to be, according to Secretary of State Raffensberger in Georgia, a Russian hoax. What are you hearing around the cun free mister chairman. Is there funny business we should know about? Or has this been a fair and safe election?
So far, so far, so good.
We obviously are very concerned about what we saw down in Atlanta and think that the authorities took all the proper precautions to clear that voting location, conduct a sweep, realize that it was okay, and then allow voters to
go back in. We also have seen usual types of issues where a polling location didn't open exactly on time, or a machine didn't work, or ran out of the ink at toner cartridge or something along those lines, which are going to be resolved very quickly and we'll be able to move on with the process well.
And of course, as we watch the voting process play out, voters are not just selecting who they'd like to be President of the United States, but other candidates as well, including those that will represent them in the House of Representatives and the Senate. Mister Chairman, there is only so much a President Trump could do without the cooperation of Congress.
So as you look from your purchase, the chair of the Republican National Can, how are you feeling about the odds of flipping the Senate and retaining the House.
We feel very good about the Senate at this point in time. We're gonna win Montana, We're gonna win West Virginia. That will give the Republicans fifty one seats. We also feel very very good about Ohio. And then you look at a combination of states in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, as well as Arizona and Nevada. Depending on what those overall numbers look like, we could have a very very
good night for the Republicans when it comes to the House. Similarly, we are in a position to be able to expand our majority there. Right now, it's a two seat majority, and if this election night goes as we currently are tracking, then hopefully we'll be able to pick up four or five six seats there.
Well, mister chairman, Donald Trump's been talking about you. He brought you up at a rally in North Carolina, considering the stakes in this election. He said, you better win. I want to get this right. You better win or you won't be able to come back here. He doesn't win, he says he won't be we at Urn City, will no longer be in North Carolina, will be looking for a job. I know that there's probably some joking going on there, mister chairman, But what kind of pressure are you feeling today?
What I feel right now is cautious optimism. We are very upbeat about where we are. The infrastructure that we have. The campaign staff, the RNC staff have worked seamlessly together. President Trump has been out there in every single battleground state multiple times over the course of the last several weeks. We had three events on Friday, three events on Saturday, three events on Sunday, and four events yesterday, and so
nobody is out working the president. We feel very good about where we are coming into election day and right now we're very happy with what we're seeing on the ground.
All right.
Our NC Chairman, Michael Wattley, thank you so much for joining us on this election day. We appreciate your time.
Serve thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. To subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC at Noontimeeastern at Bloomberg dot com.