A Ho-Hum Shutdown? - podcast episode cover

A Ho-Hum Shutdown?

Sep 06, 202335 min
--:--
--:--
Listen in podcast apps:

Episode description

Bloomberg Washington Correspondent Joe Mathieu delivers insight and analysis on the latest headlines from the White House and Capitol Hill, including conversations with influential lawmakers and key figures in politics and policy.
On this edition, Joe speaks with:

  • Bloomberg White House & Politics Reporter Gregory Korte
  • Managing Director, Head of Public Policy at Pacific Investment Management Company Libby Cantrill says investors have a ho-hum approach to a possible government shutdown
  • Bloomberg Politics Contributor Jeanne Sheehan Zaino & Republican Strategist and former press secretary for Governor George Pataki Chapin Fay discuss an exploding deficit, House Speaker McCarthy facing more pressure, and warning from former VP Mike Pence.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listening on demand wherever you get your podcasts.

Speaker 2

If you've been paying any attention, the shutdown talk seems to be getting louder every day, and we don't even have all the lawmakers in town yet. The House doesn't show up until next week. But that's more than enough for speculation to run wild. And instead of speculating here, we're actually going to talk details with Libby Cantrill from Pimco about what a shutdown would actually look like. This time.

She's got a very compelling note out to clients. It's a little bit concerning, actually, warning that the ingredients in place for this shutdown are much more potent than what we have seen in recent memory. You start thinking a bad shutdown, that's just a weekend. We'll get back to it on Monday, and it could be a little more complicated than that. We also expect to hear from President Biden this hour. He'll be speaking a bit later about

a labor deal on the West Coast. Think West Coast Ports but of course it's against the backdrop of a very difficult conversation about the potential labor strike in Detroit, the UAW and the Big Three. And that's where we start with Gregory Cordy, who's with us table here at Washington. Great to see Gregory. The President is going to deliver

what he hopes to be a good message today. But it's hard to start taking a victory lap when we could have a massive auto strike coming within less than two weeks, isn't it.

Speaker 3

Yeah, he really wants to use this event as, as you say, a victory lap, a little bit of a pep rally after this agreement with the West Coast Ports and the dock workers to get an agreement. And if you remember just a couple of years ago, over what we've seen post pandemic, with these huge lines outside of ports and the supply chain shortages we had and all this this was very important to the Biden administration get done. A prolonged supply chain shock like a labor strike at

ports would have exacerbated the inflation we've already seen. But now we've got to turn the page to the next thing, which is this looming strike deadline by the UAW next week. That looks like, you know, it's getting a little dicey

that the union's demands are pretty ambitious. At the big three auto makers seem to be digging in the heels and the issues, interestingly, are an interesting cauldron of Bidenomics, where President Biden claims to be the most union friendly president this nation's ever seen, but it's some of his policies, especially around electric vehicles, that are the issues at stake in these negotiations.

Speaker 2

Really fascinating to think of the scenario that we're in here. If it were not for the ev incentives and some of the stuff that you're referring to in the Inflation Reduction Act, for instance, would.

Speaker 4

We be having the same conversation. I think we would be having some kind of conversation. Well, there's still a lot of resentments that have been bubbling over since for more than a decade because the unions took a bath during the Great Recession. Remember all these automaker bailouts that

we had, and their contracts worker tailed. They had to take get rid of their traditional defined benefit pensions in favor of something along the lines of a defined contribution plan, and punted a lot of these bigger issues down the road, and now they're back at the table and saying, this

is our chance. We've seen record automaker profits, but we also see these threats from electric vehicles and new technologies similar to the writer's strike and the actors strike that we're seeing in this summer of strikes where they're worried about AI similar kinds of issues at play, where all these workers are looking to the future and worried about their job security as their potential of their jobs being replaced by less labor and cheaper labor.

Speaker 2

Yeah, maybe that goes for all of us at some point here, Gregy, Does this hot labor summer have any impact on the budget negotiations about to I guess restart is the best way to put it here in Washington.

Speaker 3

Good question, and I'm not sure exactly what that connection is, but it's it's all sort of in the mix. Certainly with the budget negotiations. You have a little bit of a hangover from that debt deal that we talked so much about a few months ago, where.

Speaker 2

It doesn't feel like such a deal at this point.

Speaker 3

Well, there's a little bit of buyer's remorse, especially on the part of Republicans who feel like maybe you know, they got taken for a ride on this and now want to see some some more austerity, and and now's the time to do it. That the the deadlines are I think to the extent that this kind of goes with the labor deals they're looking at, not wanting to punt this down the road any further, not put it

into Christmas. That's that's usually what happens where there's a short term continuing resolution, right, they buy a few months, but then after that we get into an election year and nobody wants to be nobody wins in a shutdown an election year. And so I think, yeah, that all the ingredients are there for some real serious deal making that has to get done by the end of this month to save the government shutdowns.

Speaker 2

Right, we're going to talk about those ingredients now with Libby Cantrell. Gregory Thank you as always, great to see you, Bloomberg reporter Gregorycording with us since studio here, and you know Libby Cantrell, the managing director head of Public Policy at PIMCO, who has been watching this and Libby, you're out with a client note here that's specific to these ingredients, writing that they are more potent than what we have

seen in recent memory. What is it that makes this shut down a little bit scarier than usual?

Speaker 5

Yeah, well, good, good afternoon. Well, so I think there are a few things. One is just the fact that there's a very skinny House majority. Republicans only have a five seat majority. That means that they practically really can't lose many votes in order to get that two eighteen member that they need in order to pass a bill.

And then I think it, just as Gregory just mentioned, there is buyer's remorse for this debt deal that you know, we should note that about two thirds of the Republican conference and the House actually voted for so they did support, you know, raising the debt ceiling. And of course in that deal there were sort of top line spending limits for next year, for the next fiscal year, and for a fiscal year twenty twenty five. But this is the important butt. Some of those folks do have buyers remorse.

They feel like, especially with the Fitch downgrade of the US debt credit quality, that this is the time is now in order to sort of push for these austerity measures. Folks don't want to have this cr this short term kind of stopgap that we've seen before. And as a result, again, even though these spending levels were sort of already agreed to in the June debt ceialing deal, a lot of folks are walking back and sort of threatening a shutdown. And again, I think what you know we're telling clients

is this is more than just an empty threat. We do think there is a faction of folks in their House Republican Caucus, who are you ready and willing to shut down the government at least for a period of time.

Speaker 2

That means something. When Libby Cantrell says it, you go further though, and throwing a little history at us here, Libby. Since nineteen seventy six, there have been twenty funding gaps, as we call them, but there have been only four times in which the government has formally shut down in recent memory as well, twenty thirteen, we remember eighteen nineteen. This time around, you see a full shutdown being more likely? How common? And can you describe to our viewers and listeners the difference?

Speaker 5

Yeah, And I think this is a distinction with the difference and an important one. And when I don't think actually the markets are really paying attention to you. Previously in twenty eighteen twenty nineteen, we saw a thirty five day shutdown of the government, but Joe, importantly, that was

only a partial shutdown. It was only part of the government, and that has implications both for economic growth, meaning that the economic impact of a partial shutdown is really less significant than a full shot down, but then also for economic data, and this is really important, especially when you're thinking about the will they or won't they in terms of the FED moving particularly in November.

Speaker 6

If the full.

Speaker 5

Government shuts down, that means practically that we do not have economic data. We don't have sorry unemployment data, we don't have CPI data, we don't have GDP data, and very hard to imagine a FED raising rates in that environment. So that is sort of the implication of a full government shutdown versus a partial one, which we saw again

most recently in the twenty eighteen twenty nineteen timeframe. This one looks like if the government were to shut down, it would be the full enchilada, so to speak, it would be the entire government and as a result, again would have reverberations for economic growth in the short term. But then also importantly in terms of access for that economic data. And I think that's actually quite crucial from a market's perspective.

Speaker 2

You write that Social Security and Medicare would not be disrupted at least checks to recipients would not be disrupted, but the SNAP program for instance, food stamps Libby would be. This is important to talk about because we do hear some members in Congress say, hey, go ahead, shut it down and make a difference anyway, but it would for millions of.

Speaker 6

People, it would.

Speaker 5

And you know, again, so practically for folks who are on those food security programs, for people who are going through the airports TSA, most of those employees will be deemed as potential employees, meaning that they will still work, but they won't receive a paycheck. And we all know how cheerful people are. They're not They're having to go to work and not receiving a paycheck. And so we could actually see there are disruptions and that national parks

will be shut down. So again, and this is not not to be hyperbolic here, but I do we do think that the chances of a broader full government shutdown are really much higher than they have been in recent memory.

And again this has sort of coming and coinciding with a period of time from an economic perspective, where there are there are already a lot of physical headwinds that are likely going to take hold, whether it's the student loan repayments, whether it's tax collection for those California taxpayers who haven't had to pay because of the national disaster zones or what have you, that their tax bill comes due in October. There's some childcare benefits that are rolling

off at the end of September. So we see this as sort of a we're calling it a window of weakness from a physical perspective this fall, and that again could just be exacerbated should we see fitful government shutdown. So we don't want to talk about you know, we don't want again hyperbolic, but we do think this is sort of important. It could be an important kind of macro factor going into the fall.

Speaker 2

This strikes me as far from hyperbolic. We've got to talk about reality here if this happens, especially if everybody in Washington thinks it's going to happen. This is the first real conversation that I've heard that details actually what the impact would be and when we consider the impact potentially on the financial market. Here what Wall Street might think about it. Libby, you just pointed out something really

interesting here that some folks might not consider. No economic data released, How does the market live in that world? If this did become a prolonged shutdown, what's the impact there?

Speaker 5

Yeah, and so I think that that is that again, I think we would say outside of kind of the growth impact, And you know, some of these estimates are you know, twenty basic points of shaving off growth a week. Now, a lot of the the employees who would not be paid during a shutdown do get back pay. But Joe, this is also an important nuance that we're talking about with our clients is that federal contractors don't necessarily receive

that back pay. And they're about a four million federal contractors. So again, if this goes on for a prolonged period of time, from a growth perspective, the you know, the growth in pack could be a little bit more severe than I think a lot of economists sort of have said.

And then again just the fact that there won't be access to you know, payrolls, to jolts, to CPI to GDP growth, now that all that stuff will come out eventually, but the folks who are actually doing that data collection, who are calculating those figures, oftentimes are not deemed as essential workers, and so they are not doing that in real time, and as a result, there'll be a delay there.

So again, I think from a market's perspective, the fault already looks like it could potentially be more uncertain because of some of these headwinds that are going to be facing consumers. And again we just say that that's the sort of government shutdown, especially if it's a prolonged government shutdown. The last thing I'll say on that is that there is if the government does shut down in October, so

September thirtieth, it's a deadline. If Congress doesn't come to a resolution before then, you know, I guess my worry is, what is the catalyst for there to actually, you know, be a bargain. I'm not sure politically if there is one that's really short term or really in the immediate future, And as a result, you could be looking at a

bit more of an extended government shutdown. And we haven't had that full government shutdown longer than sixteen days is ever, so we actually don't really know what the economic impact of that would of that would be.

Speaker 2

God, we're not looking to make history.

Speaker 5

We're always fearful.

Speaker 2

Well, but so what are you hearing though from investors? Does does the investment community expect to shut down? Or is Wall Street given this a whole hum right now and there's going to be a big freak out when it happens.

Speaker 5

I think this is honestly more of a whe hum. I've we've been sort of surprised a talking to some folks, peopleth at our clients, but even you know, other market participants, and this is really whether you know, sometimes for some folks is on their radar screen, but they just really

don't think it's a big issue. And for others they don't even they're not even paying attention because I do think there's been so much noise out of Washington and there you know, I wrote this in the note that there answered this expectation that even though Congress often doesn't turn their homework in until the last possible moment, they

usually do get their homework done. I guess you know, again, our concern is is politically right now, the stars really don't seem to be aligned in order for there to be you know, a recond you know, compromise before the September thirty day.

Speaker 2

Boy, some real talk, straight talk with Libby Kantri. Libby, thank you for your take. This is important. If this happens, people need to know what's coming, and it's great, as always to share your expertise.

Speaker 1

You're listening to The Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch the program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the tune in alf, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

Speaker 2

It's a tough headline anyway you cut it. US deficit explodes even as economy grows. That's what Washington woke up to on Sunday morning. It's pretty hard to refute what we're looking at here, a deficit that balloons to two trillion dollars by the end of this fiscal year, right around the time the government might shut down. That would be the end of this month. Let's reassemble our panel now. Genie Shanzano joins, Democratic Analyst and of course, Bloomberg Politics contributor,

joined today by Chape and Fay, Republican strategist Actum. It's great to have you both here. Chapin, Look, this isn't new. It's the worst kept secret in Washington that this is likely going to happen. It's just really a question of when, and a question of Speaker Kevin McCarthy's authority, credibility, and control over his very thin Republican majority in the House.

Matt Gates is speaking up now. I gave you a taste of that a little bit earlier this hour in an interview talking about the potential of firing Kevin McCarthy if he doesn't like the way this goes when the House returns next week. Here he is.

Speaker 7

When we get back to Washington in the coming weeks, we have got to seize the initiative. That means forcing bots on impeachment. And if Kevin McCarthy stands in our way, he may not have the job long. So let's hope that he works with us, not against us.

Speaker 2

What do you think, Chapin, Will he have the job for long?

Speaker 8

Well, listen, he's speaking. McCarthy's got one of the hardest jobs a pop. He's right wrangling a very unruly, uh caucus of Republicans. But but but Republicans like me Gates and a lot of the Conservatives felt that they were elected and sent to Washington advocate for some of these issues. So I do think the Speaker is going to have to capitulate to some, uh to some of these ideas.

And you know, the government shut down is going to be a blame game, and Republicans have to be clear and concise and break down exactly how their agenda affects uh, everyday Americans, because that's that's what's important. Right If you just talk about a ballooning deficit, hard to hard to

tire THATU how that affects positive or negative? And an average Americans like but as they see billions of dollars going to Ukraine, as they see how much money how much you know, local municipalities are understrained because.

Speaker 2

Of the migrant situation.

Speaker 8

Uh, you know, it's going to be a very difficult case to make against a Republican caucus who may shut down the government for tax breaks trying to put money back into people's pockets. So on the message front, I think Republicans have the better message and the better policy. You know proposal, some of them like tax breaks. I'm putting more money into americans pockets. But it's you know,

a little early to tell. Speaker McCarthy has a very unruly caucus that he's going to have to not necessarily keep in line, but try and act as a unified force.

Speaker 2

It would be very difficult.

Speaker 8

But as of right now, I think, you know, I think they will have an edge in this, in this upcoming battle.

Speaker 2

We do have to be specific about Republicans, right, Genie, because it sure sounds like Mitch McConnell and Senate Republicans are on a very different island from those in the House. The White House and the Senate appear to be in step here. Kevin McCarthy might be the one out of step. Is that the case?

Speaker 6

It is the case.

Speaker 9

I mean, this is a Republican versus Republican battle, and specifically Republicans in the House versus Republicans in the Senate. In fact, on that press conference the other day, when Mitch McConnell came out and we talk so much about him freezing that press conference, he intended to come out and send a clear message to Kevin McCarthy, and that message has been very clear throughout. He said it in

the speech before. They need a short term bill to get them into the holidays, and of course Kevin McCarthy has been very clear he's not going to do that. But when you look and you listen to what people are Wi Matt Gates are saying, they are just not dealing in reality. House Republicans control one sixth of the government and they are trying to push through policies, push through ideas that they simply don't have the support for. And so that is what Kevin McCarthy has been contending with.

He was able to heard those cats earlier, but very much like Paul Ryan and John Bayner before him, he over promised to this very small group of people on the far right of his own caucus about spending and other things, and they are going to hold him to delivering on that, and that is going to put him in a very difficult position because he will need Democrats and have to concede to Democrats to get a short term spending bill or there's a shutdown, and that hurts

Republicans at a very bad time. So, you know, I agree with Chapin, he has the hardest job in DC right now, and it's going to be, you know, fascinating to see if he can maneuver it. His predecessors were unable to and both ultimately left, and I would not be surprised if that is Kevin McCarthy's fate at some point in this process down the road.

Speaker 2

Illustrating the contrast here, Mitch McConnell, of course, the Republican leader in the Senate earlier today on the floor talking about this supplemental request to fund the war effort in Ukraine, not to mention the debate over Pentagon spending in the broader budget.

Speaker 10

Since put in t escalation in Ukraine, President Biden has not been as decisive as many of us would have preferred. But this is both excuse or Congress to compound his administration failures with figures of our own, with.

Speaker 2

A jab at Joe Biden while he was at it, Chape and Fay, Mitch McConnell and the Republican establishment, kind of the old school Republicans seem to be very much on the same page as Joe Biden when it comes to Ukraine spending. Is this where the fallout will happen in the House.

Speaker 8

I think it's one area where fall it will happen. I think we are you know, you know, And and the rise of populism is an issue in the Conservative Party because I.

Speaker 6

Think we're living in an era where.

Speaker 8

Our elected officials, the gap between our electives, what our elected officials are doing, and what the voters want has never been wider. Which is what is driving these Republican members of the caucust because they again I feel they have been sent there to achieve some of these conservative ideas. Again, some of them are like Jeanie said, not living, not in reality, but some of them, you know, tax cut, some of these fiscal policies. This is what the Republican hawkas was elected.

Speaker 1

To get done.

Speaker 8

And I think it's a problem for established Republicans like Senator McConnell, like you know, Leader mcconough, like, you know, I have utmost respect for him. You know, the Supreme Court wouldn't be as conservative as it is without you know, Leader McConnell's backbone over the past several years. But I do think he is out of.

Speaker 7

Touch with what the republic, what Republican.

Speaker 8

Voters currently want. I think he is out of touch. And of course there's going to be that inter Republican battle between the House and the Senate. And as a quick aside, I once saw this might be a little morbid these days in context, but I once saw a speech by Leader McConnell where he said the Senate is where things go to die, meaning you know, that's the point of the Senate to cool things off from bills that come to the House.

Speaker 2

A little bit morbid in today's condex with some of.

Speaker 8

Our aging leaders. So there's always going to be that tension with Senate Republicans and House Republicans, but they're just going to have to come to some agreements. And you know, this is a multi level negotiation, and we're in the first phase right where people like Congressan Gates are trying to get his points out in the media.

Speaker 5

Right.

Speaker 8

That's a negotiating this position and tactic, and these are the things that he is asking for. Is he going to, you know, with this colleague, shut down the government if he doesn't get one hundred percent of what he's asking for. I'm not so sure. But they're going to have to get something big in order to go along with Speaker McCarthy, which again is his bigger problem over the next couple of weeks.

Speaker 2

Yeah, and you wonder what there is to negotiate at this point, Genie, I still go back a couple of months. We thought we had a deal, this debt ceiling deal that brought us to the verge of default. It was going to be the end of the world, the fiscal cliff. They actually averted that, and yet we're still going to go through the motions here as if it never happened.

Speaker 9

That's right, deal, shmil Joe Matthew, what do we know about that?

Speaker 2

You know, it's.

Speaker 9

That's basically you know, I was just I'm just thinking the same thing.

Speaker 7

You know.

Speaker 9

It's there was a deal, we all celebrated it, we averted the fiscal cliff, and it was as if it never happened, and they're renegotiated that. And you know, Marca just said this earlier to you, you know, untelling Unless that deal will hold, we are going to be in an.

Speaker 6

Awfully chaotic system.

Speaker 9

And the reality is is that if this is how Republican voters feel, then they need to elect more legislators to get the majority they need to push through these policies, you know, to suggest that they can push through these policies without having those people in place. By just threatening to shut down the government, well, that is something that hurts all of us. And you know one thing we keep hearing is shutdowns don't matter. They don't hurt anybody.

Speaker 6

But they do.

Speaker 9

Let's remember why Fitch downgraded us, because we are in a politically chaotic system that cannot work in the most basic way to keep our government running.

Speaker 6

That's a problem for all of us.

Speaker 9

So shutting down is not an option and should not be an option to get your policy perc descriptions passed a.

Speaker 2

Lot of things to remind ourselves of there was a deal. I just know it. I was there, I saw it. Oh in that downgrade, both of those did happen. That's the backdrop for this debate that we continue to hash out here on Bloomberg Radio. Genie and shape and stay with us as Mike Pence delivers what's being built as a major speech today in New Hampshire to draw the line between himself and his former boss.

Speaker 1

You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App. Or listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts.

Speaker 2

So did you hear it? Not the new Rolling Stones record The Sirens Song of Populism, as noted by the former Vice President Mike Pence delivering what his campaign is billing as a major speech today in New Hampshire Politics and Eggs Saint Anselm, this is when it happens, a major speech about conservatism versus populism. A reference, of course, to his former boss, Donald Trump. We don't even expect to hear his name, but everyone knows who the Vice President will be talking about.

Speaker 11

In his request that I reject or return votes unilaterally, power that no vice president American history had ever exercised or taken. He asked me to put him over the Constitution, and I chose the Constitution and I always will.

Speaker 2

Mike Pence from the Republican Debate, you might hear a line like that today is actually going to equate what he sees as the fringe left in the populous right together driving the country down the road to ruin. Let's reassemble our panel and get their take on it. Geenie Shanzano is with us, along with Chape and Fay. It's great to have you both here to weigh in on this, genie. I wonder where we should start here if you're not going to name Donald Trump, because it did look like

Mike Pence was going to go there. But based on excerpts that we've seen, is a quote unquote major address like this going to make a vent at his campaign?

Speaker 9

You know, I am so glad you started there, Joe, because this is exactly what I was thinking. Apparently, his advisors told reporters on a call that the speech is directed not at one candidate in particular, and to your point, hence will not name Trump. Well, so what is he doing. Is he making a speech for posterity's sake? Is he some kind of political commentator or scholar that he is talking about the future of the GOP?

Speaker 6

Because if you're not going.

Speaker 9

To name Trump and you are forty to fifty points behind him right now, why are you running? You know, all of these people that are opposing Trump have the same problem. They look at the polls and I guess they listen to their advisors who say, don't take him on. Well, then this race is over unless Trump's self implodes because of legal or health reasons.

Speaker 6

So to me, this is going to be, you.

Speaker 9

Know, a nothing burger from the perspective of does Pence really want to beat Trump? Because to beat the guy, you have to run the race, which means you have to say you're taking him on. And this is why otherwise step back, do your commentary, But you're not going to make any headway when the Wall Street Journal and the CNN and the NRC say you're forty to fifty points behind, and we are looking at a couple months until the caucus, and we are in September after Labor Day.

Speaker 2

What would you tell him to do here, Chapin, Because Genie's right, You've got Donald Trump and aggregate of fifty percent, Mike Pence at five on a pretty good day. I know that he's going to be on the stage, likely for the second debate. I guess maybe I shouldn't assume that, but it looks like he will. But how do you make a dent in a forty five point spread like this if you're not going to name the front runner?

Speaker 8

Well, look, campaigns are math problems, right, and the former vice president has a very hard math problem to solve at five percent. The other problem is the Republican The numbers clearly show that the Republican Party in twenty twenty three and moving into twenty twenty four is solidly behind the foreign president Donald Trump. So the other candidates have this bind.

Speaker 3

Where do you attack the president?

Speaker 8

Does that hurt your numbers? How do you differentiate yourself from someone who is so far ahead and has such a strong level of support within the base of the Republican Party for a vice president, And each candidate has a different matrix that they have a different problem that they have to solve. For the vice president, he's already sort of in the on the never Trump side, so he's got to lean into this. The problem for him is that this is just not where the Republican primary

voters are. Whether you like it or you don't, that's just not where the Republican voters are. And again he's trying to thread that needle by not naming the name. But we all know Republican voters are not stupid, you know, we all know what he's talking about and who he's talking about. So I think he's taking a little bit of a chance. But this is really the only path for certain candidates, the santas Uh and Pence in particular.

The other ones you know, can can say nice things, are not engaging directly and try and and and and get those uh you know, get voters that way. But they're all they're all after the same votes. They're all after the Republican voters who refuse to vote for Trump, which is just not as many as the He's got more than fifty percent. So even it was one on one, Trump would still be leading.

Speaker 2

I want to ask Eugenie about Joe Biden and this same issue. He's not afraid to mention Donald Trump. But listen to the way he got to this in his Labor Day speech. I mean, typically we hear him refer to Donald Trump, not that often, but now we keep hearing about the former guy, the last guy.

Speaker 12

When the last guy was here, you were shipping jobs at China. Now we're bringing jobs home from China. When the last guy was here. From the last guy was there, your pensions were a risk. We helped save millions of pensions with your help.

Speaker 6

Was here.

Speaker 12

He looked at the world from Park Avenue. I look at it from scrant Pennsylvania. I look at it from Climont, Delaware.

Speaker 2

Not a joke, is he well, no, maybe not a joke. Jeanie. But what's he getting at here? Why not actually say his name?

Speaker 7

You know.

Speaker 9

I think that's Joe Biden's way of speaking. I mean, that's how Joe Biden has always spoken. There's only one previous guy who was there, you know. And the reality is is Donald Trump hasn't wrapped up the nomination yet, he is not the primary opponent yet, so maybe we hear more of that from Joe Biden. But the truth is the Biden campaign feels, and rightly so, that the more Trump they.

Speaker 6

Can talk about, the better.

Speaker 9

So if I was advising him, I would say, go ahead and say it. You may want to be folksy and say the previous guy, but go ahead and say Trump, because for them, the more Trump the better. There is very little path at this point for Donald Trump to win in the general. The Republicans are facing a very, very difficult time and we have seen that as we've

seen the special elections roll out. And that's not because Joe Biden presents such a formidable challenge, because the head to heads aren't great for Joe Biden, but because as we look at the issue of abortion, as we look at the issue of democracy, as if we look at Donald Trump.

Speaker 6

It still looks.

Speaker 9

Like Joe Biden will be able to repeat potentially what he was able to do in twenty So for him, Trump is okay to say. And I would advise him to get over the folks seed the previous guy and just go out and say it. If not now, as soon as he wraps up the nomination.

Speaker 2

Say his name. According to Janie and Shape, and I think everyone agrees on this, whether it's Mike Pencer, Joe Biden, COVID back at the White House will talk about it next with the panel. This is Bloomberg.

Speaker 1

You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the tune and half, Boomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

Speaker 2

The headline by the Associated Press kind of says it all here, and it's not good for the White House to mask or not to mask, is the headline. Biden goes both ways. This is not a Fox News headline, this is the Associated Press. Remembering of course that the first Lady came down with COVID last weekend. That means all new rules for Joe Biden coming off of the Labor Day weekend. He was masking yesterday at the White House. Most of the time.

Speaker 13

He will be masking while indoors and around people, in alignment with CDC guidance, and as as has been the practice in the past, the President will remove his mask when sufficiently distanced from others indoors and while outside as well.

Speaker 2

All right, so that would be consistent with past policy at the White House, but that's not really the way it worked. Yesterday, the President, as we told you, held an important event on the East Rooms to award the Medal of Honor Vietnam War veteran. No mask. A lot of people in the room, they were all shaking hands. We reassembled our panel for some final thoughts here Genie,

Shanzino and Chape and Fay. I just wonder, now that we're out of the pandemic here, Chapin, how careful, how deliberate does Joe Biden does the White House need to be to avoid mixing messages and to open himself up to Republican criticism on the campaign?

Speaker 8

Very I mean, the misinformation over all things COVID has been really you know, I think a disaster, and I'm not blaming any one side. I think it comes from both sides. But it is critically important for the President of the United States to be consistent. And that's what's been missing from the Trumpet administration to the Biden administration. There has not been a consistent message. You know, should we mask, should we not mask? You know, the does

the vaccine help against the new strains? We don't know, but you should ge vaccinated anyway. That just doesn't sound very scientific to me. I think everyone needs to get their act together in the federal government.

Speaker 2

This was suggested be a winning issue for the Biden administration. Genie, does he mask up or move on?

Speaker 1

You know?

Speaker 9

I think they have to follow the protocol and when anytime there's a breach from that, which we saw yesterday, it's a problem. So they do have to be clear on the protocol. They have to follow it. I don't relish wearing a mask again, so I'm empathetic to this.

Speaker 2

Genie and japin great conversation. This is Bloomberg. Thanks for listening to the sound On podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts, and you can find us live every weekday from Washington, d C. At one pm Eastern Time at Bloomberg dot com

Transcript source: Provided by creator in RSS feed: download file