https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/05/18/coronalinks-5-18-20-when-all-you-have-is-a-hammer-everything-starts-looking-like-a-dance/ It is the sixty-first day of shelter-in-place. Anti-lockdown protesters have stormed your state capitol, chanting Nazi, Communist, ISIS, and pro-Jeffrey Epstein slogans to help you figure out they’re the bad guys. Inside, the Governor has just finished announcing his 37 step plan to reopen the state over the next ten years . You kind of feel like he should be a little m...
May 20, 2020•39 min•Ep. 312
https://slatestarcodex.com/2015/09/16/cardiologists-and-chinese-robbers/ I. It takes a special sort of person to be a cardiologist. This is not always a good thing. You may have read about one or another of the “cardiologist caught falsifying test results and performing dangerous unnecessary surgeries to make more money” stories, but you might not have realized just how common it really is. Maryland cardiologist performs over 500 dangerous unnecessary surgeries to make money. Unrelated Maryland ...
May 16, 2020•13 min•Ep. 311
https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/05/12/studies-on-slack/ I. Imagine a distant planet full of eyeless animals. Evolving eyes is hard: they need to evolve Eye Part 1, then Eye Part 2, then Eye Part 3, in that order. Each of these requires a separate series of rare mutations. Here on Earth, scientists believe each of these mutations must have had its own benefits – in the land of the blind, the man with only Eye Part 1 is king. But on this hypothetical alien planet, there is no such luck. You need a...
May 14, 2020•48 min•Ep. 310
https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/05/05/book-review-contest-call-for-entries/ Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to write a book review and send it to me at scott[at]slatestarcodex[dot]com before August 5th 2020. Interested? Here’s the small print (written in normal-sized print, for your convenience): Pick a book, then write a review similar to my SSC book reviews ( examples ). I’m mostly expecting reviews of nonfiction, but I guess you could review fiction if you really wanted and h...
May 07, 2020•5 min•Ep. 309
https://slatestarcodex.com/2015/08/17/the-goddess-of-everything-else-2/ [Related to: Specific vs. General Foragers vs. Farmers and War In Heaven , but especially The Gift We Give To Tomorrow ] They say only Good can create, whereas Evil is sterile. Think Tolkien, where Morgoth can’t make things himself, so perverts Elves to Orcs for his armies. But I think this gets it entirely backwards; it’s Good that just mutates and twists, and it’s Evil that teems with fecundity. Imagine two principles, her...
May 02, 2020•15 min•Ep. 308
https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/29/predictions-for-2020/ At the beginning of every year, I make predictions . At the end of every year, I score them . So here are a hundred more for 2020. Rules: all predictions are about what will be true on January 1, 2021. Some predictions about my personal life, or that refer to the personal lives of other people, have been redacted to protect their privacy. I’m using the full 0 – 100 range in making predictions this year, but they’ll be flipped and judged...
May 01, 2020•10 min•Ep. 307
https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/27/give-yourself-gout-for-fame-and-profit/ I. Actually, no. You should not do this. Most of you were probably already not doing this, and I support your decision. But if you want a 2000 word essay on some reasons to consider this, and then some other reasons why those reasons are wrong, keep reading. Gout is a disease caused by high levels of uric acid in the blood. Everyone has some uric acid in their blood, but when you get too much, it can form little crysta...
Apr 29, 2020•15 min•Ep. 306
https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/24/employer-provided-health-insurance-delenda-est/ My last post didn’t really go to deep into why I dislike the way we do health insurance so much. Of course, there are the usual criticisms based on compassion and efficiency. Compassion because poor people can’t get access to life-saving medical care. Efficiency because it’s ruinously expensive compared to every other system around. I agree with these arguments. And they’re strong enough that asking whether the...
Apr 25, 2020•9 min•Ep. 305
https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/20/the-amish-health-care-system/ I. Amish people spend only a fifth as much as you do on health care, and their health is fine. What can we learn from them? A reminder: the Amish are a German religious sect who immigrated to colonial America. Most of them live apart from ordinary Americans (who they call “the English”) in rural communities in Pennsylvania and Ohio. They’re famous for their low-tech way of life, generally avoiding anything invented after the 170...
Apr 22, 2020•25 min•Ep. 304
https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/17/depression-the-olfactory-perspective/ Depressed people have worse sense of smell, and people with worse sense of smell are more likely to get depressed. Kohli 2016 tries to figure out what’s going on. They review six studies testing how well depressed people can smell things. Most use something called “The Sniffin’ Sticks Test” (really!) where people are asked to say which of two sticks has an odor; the strength of the odorous one is then decreased until the...
Apr 17, 2020•11 min•Ep. 303
https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/14/a-failure-but-not-of-prediction/ I. Vox asks What Went Wrong With The Media’s Coronavirus Coverage? They conclude that the media needs to be better at “not just saying what we do know, but what we don’t know”. This raises some important questions. Like: how much ink and paper is there in the world? Are we sure it’s enough? But also: how do you become better at saying what you don’t know? In case you’ve been hiding under a rock recently (honestly, valid) the ...
Apr 16, 2020•26 min•Ep. 302
https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/10/coronalinks-4-10-second-derivative/ The second derivative is the rate of growth of the rate of growth. Over the past few weeks, the second derivative of total coronavirus cases switched from positive (typical of exponential growth) to zero or negative (typical of linear or sublinear growth) in most European countries. Over the past few days, it switched from positive to zero/negative in the United States and the world as a whole. These are graphs of the rate...
Apr 12, 2020•22 min•Ep. 301
https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/08/2019-predictions-calibration-results/ At the beginning of every year, I make predictions. At the end of every year, I score them (this year I’m very late). Here are 2014 , 2015 , 2016 , 2017 , and 2018 . And here are the predictions I made for 2019. Strikethrough’d are false. Intact are true. Italicized are getting thrown out because I can’t decide if they’re true or not. All of these judgments were as of December 31 2019, not as of now. Please don’t complai...
Apr 09, 2020•14 min•Ep. 300
https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/07/never-tell-me-the-odds-ratio/ [Epistemic status: low confidence, someone tell me if the math is off. Title was stolen from an old Less Wrong post that seems to have disappeared – let me know if it’s yours and I’ll give you credit] I almost screwed up yesterday’s journal club. The study reported an odds ratio of 2.9 for antidepressants. Even though I knew odds ratios are terrible and you should never trust your intuitive impression of them, I still mentally f...
Apr 09, 2020•4 min•Ep. 299
https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/06/sscjc-real-world-depression-measurement/ The largest non-pharma antidepressant trial ever conducted just confirmed what we already knew: scientists love naming things after pandas. We already had PANDAS (Pediatric Autoimmune Neuropsychiatric Disorders Associated with Streptococcus) and PANDA (Proton ANnhilator At DArmstadt). But the latest in this pandemic of panda pandering is the PANDA (Prescribing ANtiDepressants Appropriately) Study. A group of British s...
Apr 07, 2020•13 min•Ep. 298
https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/01/book-review-the-precipice/ I. It is a well known fact that the gods hate prophets. False prophets they punish only with ridicule. It’s the true prophets who have to watch out. The gods find some way to make their words come true in the most ironic way possible, the one where knowing the future just makes things worse. The Oracle of Delphi told Croesus he would destroy a great empire, but when he rode out to battle, the empire he destroyed was his own. Zechar...
Apr 03, 2020•34 min•Ep. 297
https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/03/31/ssc-journal-club-macintyre-on-cloth-masks/ Content warning : this is a complicated analysis of something people care about a lot right now. I’m not confident in my analysis, the post comes to no clear conclusion and there are no easy answers about how to proceed. If I see this on Twitter with some headline about it DESTROYING somebody, I am going to be so mad.] The New York Times says that It’s Time To Make Your Own Face Mask . But MacIntyre et al (2015) say...
Apr 02, 2020•11 min•Ep. 296
https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/03/30/legal-systems-very-different-from-ours-because-i-just-made-them-up/ [with apologies to the real Legal Systems Very Different From Ours . See also the List Of Fictional Drugs Banned By The FDA ] I. The Clamzorians are animists. They believe every rock and tree and river has its own spirit. And those spirits are legal people. This on its own is not unusual – even New Zealand gives rivers legal personhood. But in Clamzoria, if a flood destroys your home, you su...
Mar 31, 2020•17 min•Ep. 295
https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/03/27/coronalinks-3-27-20/ The United States now has more coronavirus cases than any other country, including China , marking a new stage in the epidemic. As before, feel free to treat this as an open thread for all coronavirus-related issues. Everything here is speculative and not intended as medical advice. Hammer and dance Most of the smart people I’ve been reading have converged on something like the ideas expressed in The Hammer And The Dance – see this Less ...
Mar 28, 2020•36 min•Ep. 294
https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/03/23/face-masks-much-more-than-you-wanted-to-know/ There’s been recent controversy about the use of face masks for protection against coronavirus. Mainstream sources, including the CDC and most of the media say masks are likely useless and not recommended. They’ve recently been challenged, for example by Professor Zeynep Tufekci in the New York Times and by Jim and Elizabeth on Less Wrong . There was also some debate in the comment section here last week, so I pr...
Mar 25, 2020•33 min•Ep. 293
https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/03/19/coronalinks-3-19-20/ As before, feel free to treat this as an open thread for all coronavirus-related issues. Everything here is speculative and not intended as medical advice. How many real cases? As of today, the US has almost 10,000 official cases. How many real cases per official case? One epidemiologist says 8x. In this US News article , scientists estimate 9000 true cases back when the official count was 600, suggesting 15x, and BBC estimates 10,000 re...
Mar 21, 2020•25 min•Ep. 292
https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/03/17/book-review-hoover/ You probably remember Herbert Hoover as the guy who bungled the Great Depression. Maybe you shouldn’t. Maybe you should remember him as a bold explorer looking for silver in the jungles of Burma. Or as the heroic defender of Tientsin during the Boxer Rebellion. Or as a dashing pirate-philanthropist, gallivanting around the world, saving millions of lives wherever he went. Or as the temporary dictator of Europe. Or as a geologist, or a ban...
Mar 21, 2020•1 hr 21 min•Ep. 291
https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/03/10/for-then-against-high-saturated-fat-diets/ I. In the 1800s, the average US man weighed about 155 lbs. Today, he weighs about 195. The change is even starker at the extremes. Someone at the 90th percentile of weight back then weighed about 185 lbs; today, he would weigh 320 lbs. Back then, about 1% of men were obese. Today, about 25% are. This puts a lot of modern dietary advice into perspective. For example, lots of people think low-carb is the solution to e...
Mar 15, 2020•28 min•Ep. 290
https://slatestarcodex.com/2017/09/05/book-review-surfing-uncertainty/ [Related to: It’s Bayes All The Way Up , Why Are Transgender People Immune To Optical Illusions? , Can We Link Perception And Cognition? ] I. Sometimes I have the fantasy of being able to glut myself on Knowledge. I imagine meeting a time traveler from 2500, who takes pity on me and gives me a book from the future where all my questions have been answered, one after another. What’s consciousness? That’s in Chapter 5. How did ...
Mar 08, 2020•46 min•Ep. 289
https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/03/06/socratic-grilling/ Imagine an kid in school first hearing about germ theory. The conversation might go something like this: Teacher: Many diseases like the common cold are spread by germs, when one infected person contacts another. Student: But I got a cold a few weeks ago, and I never touch anyone except my family members. And none of them were sick. Teacher: You don’t need to actually touch someone. Sometimes it can spread through mucus droplets in the air...
Mar 07, 2020•10 min•Ep. 288
https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/03/02/coronavirus-links-speculation-open-thread/ [ Epistemic status: Very weak – I’m still trying to figure all of this out. Some things in here will almost certainly be wrong. Please don’t let this overrule what government agencies or your common sense are telling you. For a more careful guide to the coronavirus and what to do about it, see here .] Prepping For a description of why you might want to prep, see Putanumonit: Seeing The Smoke . For a description of h...
Mar 05, 2020•33 min•Ep. 287
https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/02/27/book-review-the-seven-principles-for-making-marriage-work/ I. John Gottman is a legendary figure, and the legend is told best by John Gottman. He describes wading into the field of marital counseling as a young psychology postdoc, only to find it was a total mess: When we began our research, the wide range of marital therapies based on conflict resolution shared a very high level of relapse. In fact, the best of this type of marital therapy, conducted by Nei...
Mar 01, 2020•54 min•Ep. 286
https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/02/24/book-review-just-giving/ I. Traditional book reviews tend to focus on a single book, such as Just Giving by Rob Reich. We ought, however, to be reviewing a broader question: what is the role of books in a liberal democratic society? And what role should they play? Books were first invented during the early Bronze Age. Plato states people fiercely opposed the first books; in his dialogue Phaedrus , he recalls the Egyptian priests’ objection to early writing: ...
Feb 26, 2020•22 min•Ep. 285
https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/02/17/sleep-support-an-individual-randomized-controlled-trial/ I worry my sleep quality isn’t great. On weekends, no matter when I go to bed, I sleep until 11 or 12. When I wake up, I feel like I’ve overslept. But if I try to make myself get up earlier, I feel angry and want to go back to sleep. A supplement company I trust, Nootropics Depot, recently released a new product called Sleep Support. It advertises that, along with helping you fall asleep faster, it can...
Feb 18, 2020•9 min•Ep. 284
https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/02/14/addendum-to-targeting-meritocracy/ I’ve always been dissatisfied with Targeting Meritocracy and the comments it got. My position seemed so obvious to me – and the opposite position so obvious to other people – that we both had to be missing something. Reading it over, I think I was missing the idea of conflict vs mistake theory . I wrote the post from a mistake theory perspective. The government exists to figure out how to solve problems. Good government off...
Feb 16, 2020•3 min•Ep. 283
