2019 Predictions: Calibration Results

https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/08/2019-predictions-calibration-results/

At the beginning of every year, I make predictions. At the end of every year, I score them (this year I’m very late). Here are 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018.

And here are the predictions I made for 2019. Strikethrough’d are false. Intact are true. Italicized are getting thrown out because I can’t decide if they’re true or not. All of these judgments were as of December 31 2019, not as of now.

Please don’t complain that 50% predictions don’t mean anything; I know this is true but there are some things I’m genuinely 50-50 unsure of. Some predictions are redacted because they involve my private life or the lives of people close to me. A few that started off redacted stopped being secret; I’ve put those in [brackets].