Predictions: 2023 —RSJ As promised last week, let’s get going with some predictions for 2023. Pranay likes to keep them very specific (for a good reason), while I get away with broad bets. Global Economy The problem with predicting anything on how things will unfold globally is the random big event that upends all forecasts. This has happened in the last three years. The impact of the pandemic waves and the Ukraine war is yet to play out fully. By themselves, it makes for difficult terrain for f...
Jan 15, 2023•27 min
Wishing You a Great 2023 Others might begin the new year with resolutions, but we prefer excuses. Last year, we wrote only 42 editions. There was much to do in the remaining ten weeks. There was the Football World Cup, a few time-offs, a couple of vacations, and of course, a lapdog ate our laptops. If these honourable reasons weren’t enough, we add another: we wrote a book! Our book Missing in Action: Why You Should Care About Public Policy will be published on 23 January 2023. Like this newslet...
Jan 08, 2023•17 min
Programming Note : A lighter edition this weekend because life happened of late-night football, missed flights, and several other things. Also, we will be away for a short year-end break. Normal service will resume on Jan 8, 2023. Happy holiday season, everyone! India Policy Watch: Digital Rupee (e₹-R) Is In Town Insights on current policy issues in India — RSJ The RBI launched the first pilot for the retail digital Rupee this week. It is now among the select list of central banks that’s got a C...
Dec 11, 2022•19 min
India Policy Watch #1: Winning The Long Game Insights on current policy issues in India — RSJ Many moons ago I sat down for lunch with someone who is often referred to in the media as a ‘doyen of the industry’. Among other things, I asked him the single most important advice he would give to anyone who is at the start of their career. I didn’t have any burning desire to succeed in the corporate rat race. So, I wasn’t looking for a life-changing insight. I asked it because custom demanded you ask...
Dec 04, 2022•30 min
India Policy Watch: State Capacity, the Smart Parking Edition Insights on domestic policy issues — Pranay Kotasthane Public policy is all around us; observing the same public space over time can reveal much about public policy, implementation, and state capacity. So, I’ll try something different today. I will narrate the story of a parking policy reform, which I’ve observed closely over the last couple of years. In it are lessons for government contracting, deployment of technology, and public c...
Nov 27, 2022•18 min
Global Policy Watch: Tu Cheez Badi Hai Musk, Musk (umm, sorry) Insights on global policy issues — RSJ One of the great problems of policy, or even philosophy, is who should own things that are or that behave like public utilities. For instance, who should own news broadcasting services? Suppose you prepare a case study explaining what’s news broadcasting, the perils that someone abuses such a service to spread fake news and propaganda, and the damage they do to society. Now hand over this case t...
Nov 20, 2022•24 min
Global Policy Watch #1: FinTech Manoeuvres Insights on global issues relevant to India — RSJ One of our favourite topics to talk about around here is regulations. We aren’t dogmatic about things. But the one principle that comes close to being a dogma for us is our belief in spontaneous order. The world is a complex interplay of many economic and social networks. Don’t try to force an order on it. Let the spontaneous, uncoordinated actions of the millions run their course. Some order will emerge...
Nov 13, 2022•20 min
India Policy Watch #1: Ganesh Ji & Lakshmi Ji To The Rescue Insights on domestic policy issues — RSJ Sometime last week, this newsletter marked three years of its existence. A blink of an eye in the larger scheme of things. Yet, it feels nice to have reached this milestone. Consistency might be the virtue of an ass, but it is a virtue nevertheless. In these three years, we have stayed somewhat true to our purpose in every edition we have sent out. We have analysed policies intending to antic...
Nov 06, 2022•21 min
Programming Note: We will be on a short ‘writing’ break. Normal service will resume from Oct 29. Global Policy Watch: When Traditional Institutions Work Insights on topical policy issues in India — RSJ King Charles III was coronated last week. I saw the pictures of the event, and if you did not know the history of the British monarchy, the whole thing looked like a Monty Python sketch on a Nolan-esque budget. The King wore a costume that might have appeared outdated even in the 12th century when...
Sep 25, 2022•25 min
India Policy Watch #1: The Anatomy of Decentralisation Insights on topical policy issues in India — Pranay Kotasthane The human-made floods in some parts of Bengaluru generated much furore. Writing about it in our previous edition, RSJ remarked: The way the political economy is structured right now, it is difficult to see how there will be enough devolution of power and finances to a city. A big city most often is a bankrupt political orphan in India. It doesn’t look like changing any time soon....
Sep 18, 2022•24 min
Global Policy Watch: Europe’s War Global policy issues and their implication for India — RSJ There is an energy crisis in Europe. Russia announced this week that it won’t resume supplying gas to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline until the west lifts the sanctions over its invasion of Ukraine. Till last year, Russia accounted for about 45 percent of the EU's total gas imports. About a third of it flowed through Nord Stream 1. A few months back Russia halted supply via Nord Stream citing maint...
Sep 11, 2022•20 min
India Policy Watch: Why Do We Not Get It Right, Ever? Insights on topical policy issues in India — RSJ Policies fail more often than they succeed. This is a universal truth. We love to pontificate in this newsletter on why policies fail. It is the easiest of things to do. Crafting a policy that factors in the many variables that could impact its outcome and thinking through its implementation is one of the toughest skills to master. Things change, assumptions get invalidated, implementation gets...
Sep 04, 2022•21 min
PolicyWTF: Revdi Fertiliser Culture This section looks at egregious public policies. Policies that make you go: WTF, Did that really happen? - Pranay Kotasthane In the past, we have discussed many government plans of the “One Nation, One X” kind. Still, I must confess. Of all things that can substitute the letter X , “fertiliser” was beyond my thinking horizon. Limited thinking wasn’t a problem for the government, which has : “decided to implement One Nation One Fertiliser by introducing single ...
Aug 28, 2022•27 min
Global Policy Watch #1: The Many Transitions In China Global issues and their implications for India — RSJ In a few editions in the past, we have alluded to structural challenges in the Chinese economy and the window of opportunity that it presents India. I thought it would be useful to take a more comprehensive view of this. China reported a GDP growth of 0.4 per cent in the quarter that ended in June 2022. China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) isn’t known for its allegiance to truth. It ...
Aug 21, 2022•24 min
Happy Independence Day! - Pranay Kotasthane and RSJ This newsletter can often seem pessimistic about India. That isn’t true, though. Every year, on Independence Day, we remind ourselves and our readers why we write this newsletter. This is how we ended the Independence Day edition of 2020: “What we have achieved so far is precious. That’s worth reminding ourselves today. We will go back to writing future editions lamenting our state of affairs. We will do so because we know it’s worth it.” This ...
Aug 15, 2022•55 min
India Policy Watch #1: Futility Of Fighting Lies Insights on burning policy issues in India — RSJ I have been following the case of Mohammed Zubair, the co-founder of the fact-checking site Alt News with interest. He was granted interim bail by the Supreme Court a couple of weeks back. You can read more about the story here . I border on free speech absolutism, so my opinion on this case, as with many other similar cases in India, is simple. No one should be jailed for any speech unless they are...
Aug 07, 2022•24 min
Global Policy Watch: Energy Is Flagging Insights on burning policy issues from an Indian lens — RSJ Who do you think has a better long-term view of the world? An administration struggling to control inflation and rising oil prices, one that’s facing midterm elections with the lowest approval ratings, or large institutional investors projected to own about 20 per cent of all US listed companies by 2028? I don’t know. I mean, it is conventional wisdom that all that the likes of Blackrock, Vanguard...
Jul 31, 2022•24 min
India Policy Watch #1: To Catch A Falling Rupee Insights on burning policy issues in India — RSJ The Indian rupee this week declined to an all-time low as it went beyond 80 per dollar. For reasons that aren’t always clear to me, this kind of thing makes a lot of news in India. I mean, it was 79.9 the week before. There isn’t a yawning gap between that and 80. Yet opinion pieces are written, cartoons sketched, and old tweets of macroeconomic theorists like Akshay Kumar, Juhi Chawla and Sri Sri (S...
Jul 24, 2022•24 min
Global Policy Watch #1: How the Sri Lankan Economy Unraveled Insights on policy issues making news around the world — RSJ What people do when they storm palaces is broadly instructive about what comes next. In 1792, the French insurgents determined to end whatever remained of the ancien regime stormed the palace of Tuileries and confronted the Swiss Guards who were defending the palace on the orders of Louis XVI. Blood, gore and massacre followed, at the end of which about eleven hundred combata...
Jul 17, 2022•23 min
Global Policy Watch #1: The Road Not Taken Insights on policy issues making news around the world — Pranay Kotasthane East Asian economic success is one of India’s favourite public policy discussion themes. Regardless of the facts, we have strengthened our own beliefs based on that transformation. For instance, many Indians are convinced that South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan became powerhouses through well-executed industrial policies in which governments threw their full weight behind specific do...
Jul 10, 2022•22 min
Global Policy Watch: Woe Vs Raid Insights on policy issues making news around the World - RSJ On Friday, Justice Samuel Alito along with the conservative bloc of the US Supreme Court (SCOTUS) overturned the landmark Roe v Wade judgment that had granted women a federal right to terminate a pregnancy about half a century ago. The conservative raid into the SCOTUS that started with the efforts of Bush Jr and concluded with Trump appointing three judges during his term has delivered to the great woe...
Jun 26, 2022•28 min
India Policy Watch: The Road Of Fire Insights on burning policy issues in India - RSJ The Union Defence Minister along with the chiefs of the three armed services on Tuesday announced the ‘Agnipath’ scheme for recruitment into the Indian military. You can read more about the scheme here . I have summarised the key features below: * The soldiers under this scheme (referred to as ‘Agniveers’) will be enrolled for a duration of four years in a conscription or tour of duty (ToD) like model that’s pr...
Jun 19, 2022•29 min
PolicyWTF: See No Evil, Read No Evil, Hear No Evil This section looks at egregious public policies. Policies that make you go: WTF, Did that really happen? — Pranay Kotasthane Earlier this week, I stumbled on this headline in the Business Standard : "Remove price cap and channel bundling restrictions: Broadcasters tell TRAI”. For someone writing a weekly newsletter on Indian public policy, price controls are a gift that keeps on giving. Naturally, I went down this rabbit hole. For context, read ...
Jun 12, 2022•31 min
Global Policy Watch #1: The Man Who Broke Capitalism? Global policy issues relevant for India - RSJ Over the last couple of years, I have run through a list of books in what I call the ‘crisis in liberalism’ genre. There is a template that most of these books follow – begin with the fall of the Berlin wall, remind readers about Fukuyama’s ‘The End of History’ paper, run through the mistakes that a triumphal liberal order made through the next two decades, talk about capitalism running amok leadi...
Jun 05, 2022•30 min
India Policy Watch: Why is UBI Back Again? Insights on burning policy issues in India - Pranay Kotasthane The Universal Basic Income (UBI) proposal made it to last week's policy headlines. The occasion was the release of a report commissioned by the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister. Written by the Institute for Competitiveness, the State of Inequality in India Report bats for “raising minimum income and introducing universal basic income” to reduce “the income gap and equal distri...
May 29, 2022•25 min
India Policy Watch #1: Silver Linings Playbook Insights on burning policy issues in India - RSJ Hello Readers! We are back after a nice, little break. Things have changed a bit in the past four weeks; haven’t they? Stock markets around the world are down by 10 per cent. Central banks have hiked interest rates by 40-50 bps. Inflation in the US is running at a 40-year high of over eight per cent. Retail inflation in India at 7.79 per cent is beyond the zone of comfort for RBI. The Rupee hit an all...
May 15, 2022•26 min
Programming Note: Anticipating The Unintended will be on a 3 week break. We will send you select pieces from our archives during this period. Normal service will resume from May 15. India Policy Watch #1: Hindi Hain Hum... Insights on burning policy issues in India - RSJ There’s that oft-quoted line of sociolinguist Max Weinreich that goes ‘a language is a dialect with an army and navy’. Like many facetious remarks, it isn’t scientific, but it sounds great. Also, there’s a kernel of truth in it....
Apr 17, 2022•21 min
India Policy Watch #1: Love For Putin Insights on burning policy issues in India - RSJ You must have noticed a distinct anti-west, pro-Putin tone in the media outlets that toe the government’s line in India. The intellectual right has been busy with columns equivocating on who has to shoulder the blame for the war. What could be the reasons for this? There’s of course the strategic autonomy argument. We are dependent on Russia for our defence and oil requirements. It has been a reliable friend o...
Apr 10, 2022•23 min
Not(PolicyWTF): Trade Deals Are Good This section looks at policies that are surprisingly sane. - RSJ We signed a trade deal with Australia yesterday. For over a decade now, we have been trying to get this going. The deal falls just short of a free trade agreement (FTA) but that’s a minor quibble that should get sorted in future. Australia’s desire to reduce its dependence on China as the primary trading partner and India’s willingness to have a stronger link with the Quad on economic matters se...
Apr 03, 2022•26 min
India Policy Watch: The Indispensability of Economic Growth Insights on burning policy issues in India — Pranay Kotasthane Shruti Rajagopalan and Lant Pritchett's of India conversation is full of insights for all public policy students. From that conversation, there was one particular claim that I want to discuss this week: economic growth is not just necessary, but also a sufficient condition for reasonably high levels of human wellbeing . Over the last few years, many people have grown sceptic...
Mar 27, 2022•12 min
