Anticipating the Unintended - podcast cover

Anticipating the Unintended

Pranay Kotasthanepublicpolicy.substack.com
Frameworks, mental models, and fresh perspectives on Indian public policy and politics. This feed is an audio narration by Ad Auris based on the 'Anticipating the Unintended' newsletter, a free weekly publication with 8000+ subscribers.

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Episodes

#163 The Past Is A Foreign Country*

PolicyWTF: Learning Everyday From GST This section looks at egregious public policies. Policies that make you go: WTF, Did that really happen? - RSJ Many years ago, I went out for dinner with a client in Paris. It was a nice restaurant. Soon, the wines started flowing, escargots were polished off and I was educated on the mother sauces of French cuisine. The lark was on the wing, the snail was on the thorn plate, the client was footing the bill, God was in his heaven, and all was right with the ...

Mar 20, 202224 min

#162 The Closing Of The Indian Mind

India Policy Watch #1: What UP Tells Us Insights on burning policy issues in India — RSJ If there was more proof needed that Indian politics has changed forever, it came this week with the results of five state assembly elections. BJP won the big prize, UP, with a comfortable margin while AAP swept Punjab marking its presence beyond Delhi in a spectacular fashion. The question is what is this thing that has changed? Is this the usual hyperbolic overreading of events that we have come to associat...

Mar 13, 202229 min

#161 No man is an island entire of itself; every man is a piece of the continent*

Global Policy Watch: Possible End Game In Ukraine? Indian perspectives on global events — RSJ Things have escalated a bit since I wrote last week about the economic sanctions on Russia by the West. Apart from cutting loose a few Russian banks from the SWIFT messaging system, we also had the unprecedented move to freeze the access of the Russian central bank to its forex reserves that are held with other banks in the West. Russia has been salting away about $640 billion worth of forex reserves ov...

Mar 06, 202225 min

#160 Through The Looking Glass

Global Policy Watch: What Ukraine Tells Us Indian perspectives on global events — RSJ Among the rare joys of writing a weekly newsletter is the ability to pretend you’re an expert on everything under the sun. That way the last 2 years has been a gift that has kept on giving. Science of epidemiology, methods of lockdown, the efficacy of vaccines, how fiscal stimulus should be structured, what to do about China, the transitory nature of inflation or the long-term impact of working from home - ther...

Feb 27, 202219 min

#159 Three Conundrums

PolicyWTF: Band-aids for Bullet Wounds This section looks at egregious public policies. Policies that make you go: WTF, Did that really happen? - Pranay Kotasthane The ongoing political crisis in Ukraine has a small sub-plot that links to India’s education policy self-goals. Before the current crisis unfolded, I had heard that Russia and Ukraine were popular destinations for aspiring medical students from India. What I didn’t know was how big this cohort is in Ukraine. Multiple news reports clai...

Feb 20, 202229 min

#158 Avoiding The Usual Distractions

India Policy Watch #1: On Hijab And Freedom Insights on burning policy issues in India — RSJ The hijab row roiling colleges in the Udupi district of Karnataka reached the courts this week. A full bench of the Karnataka High Court ruled on Thursday that all students are restrained from wearing clothes with religious symbolism within classrooms in institutions that have a prescribed dress code or uniform. The bench adjourned the hearing to Monday while requesting the state government to reopen the...

Feb 13, 202221 min

#157 Money Matters

Programming Note: It’s just me this time. RSJ will be back next week. - Pranay India Policy Watch #1: The Indefensibility of India’s Defence Financing Insights on burning policy issues in India — Pranay Kotasthane Government budgets should be seen in the context of on-ground realities and future targets. The immediate context of the latest defence budget is the continuing stand-off between Indian and Chinese troops in eastern Ladakh. Since it began in May 2020, this stand-off has underlined the ...

Feb 06, 202212 min

#156 The Republic Of Our Future

A long edition for your leisurely Sunday. Thanks for your patience India Policy Watch #1: Call Of Duty Insights on burning policy issues in India - RSJ Many among you of a particular age might remember a familiar trope from old Hindi films. A key protagonist, grievously injured or sick, is wheeled into the operation theatre. There’s a small red bulb on top of the door that turns on. Grim music plays in the background. After a while, the surgeon steps out, take off his gloves and looks at the ass...

Jan 30, 202232 min

#155 The Persistence Of Memory (of bad ideas)

Global Policy Watch: Who’s Afraid Of Stakeholder Capitalism? Insights on global issues of the day - RSJ Sometime in late 2019, Alan Jope, chief executive of Unilever, the global food and cosmetics giant, declared that brands without an evangelical purpose of contributing to society will soon face extinction. As the Guardian reported then: Alan Jope, Unilever’s chief executive, said it was no longer enough for consumer goods companies to sell washing powders that make shirts whiter or shampoos th...

Jan 23, 202226 min

#154 We’ve Seen This Movie Before

Global Policy Watch: Joan Didion On Morality Insights on global issues of the day - RSJ I want to write about the Andhra Pradesh cinema ticket price cap kerfuffle this week ( read here for context). A regular reader, Prem Sagar, wrote to us last week giving us a picture of what was happening in Tollywood. All the great ingredients of a timeless PolicyWTF have come together there - good intentions, political games, conspiracy theories, a government order on price controls that Indira Gandhi would...

Jan 16, 202226 min

#153 Hope Is A Thing With Feathers*

India Policy Watch: Prediction Time Insights on burning policy issues in India — RSJ Happy New Year! This is a time of hope, optimism and new beginnings. But 2022 has signalled it has no time for such niceties. It is already hitting high notes on all kinds of wrong metrics - peak COVID-19 positivity rates, deeper social polarisation and dangerous levels of toxicity on social media. And it is only the first week. Maybe 2022 intends to get all the bad news out early and then coast on calm waters. ...

Jan 09, 202214 min

#152 2021 Ends

Programming Note: Anticipating The Unintended will be on its annual year-end break for the next two weeks. Normal services will resume from Jan 9, 2022. Happy Holidays. This is the last edition for 2021. There’s always a temptation to look back at the year gone and arrive at some kind of things-we-learnt-this-year list. As much as we’d like to do that, we really have nothing insightful to offer. It wasn’t a great year for most part because of the pandemic and it is ending on a foreboding note. A...

Dec 19, 202121 min

#151 The Wrong Kind Of Convergence

India Policy Watch #1: Imitating The Enemy Insights on burning policy issues in India — RSJ Pranay made an interesting point in the last edition on how India should avoid mimicking China if it were to position itself as a counter to them. The core idea was we often fall into the trap of behaving like our ‘enemy’ when we compete with them. This hurts our long term interests. I was thinking about it in the context of Indian politics and how often this has turned out to be true. A classic instance ...

Dec 12, 202119 min

#150 One Country, Infinite Variety

Hey all, our little newsletter hits a 150 with this edition! That’s about 600,000+ words. We also completed two years of bringing you Anticipating The Unintended last month. The process has been rewarding for us (heh, what else can we say about a free newsletter, really?). We hope it’s been of use to you. Thank you for your attention and time. We will be grateful to hear from you. India Policy Watch #1: Two Indias Insights on burning policy issues in India — RSJ In the old debate between growth ...

Dec 05, 2021

#149 Turning And Turning In The Widening Gyre

India Policy Watch: Crypto And Samvidhaan Insights on burning policy issues in India — RSJ When you write a weekly newsletter you view every news item as possible content for the next edition. You shoehorn some framework or stretch things to draw a historical parallel with that event. Trust me, it can be tiring - speaking for me, not for Pranay who has frameworks for his breakfast with poha . But as I sometimes like to say, there are weeks when content presents itself on a platter with a side of...

Nov 28, 202123 min

#148 All The Wrong Reasons

India Policy Watch #1: Nayi Umar Ki Purani Fasal Insights on burning policy issues in India — RSJ PM Modi, in an address to the nation at 9 AM on Friday, repealed the three farm laws that had been pushed through in the parliament without any debate more than a year ago. Choosing the occasion of Guru Nanak Jayanti, the PM said his government was unable to convince the farmers about the benefits of the laws. We have written a few times earlier about our view on farm reforms and these three laws in...

Nov 21, 202127 min

#147 Bole Choodiyan, Bole Kangana?

Not(PolicyWTF): Reforming Procurement (Sanjeev Kumar Must Be Smiling) Pleasant surprises in policymaking in India — RSJ Since we take great pleasure in highlighting policy screw-ups around here, it is only fair we appreciate measures that aren’t PolicyWTFs when they make an occasional appearance on our landscape like rare migratory birds. Last week we had one such sighting. ( Deep breath ). The Procurement Policy Division (PPD) in the Department of Expenditure (DoE) under the Ministry of Finance...

Nov 14, 202124 min

#146 Woke Up On The 'Right' Side

India Policy Watch: Countering Wokeism Insights on burning policy issues in India — RSJ You know a term has entered the zeitgeist when it reaches your family WhatsApp group that’s kept alive by aunts and uncles forwarding every dubious message that confirms their biases. So, when I received a message on the group that urged us to celebrate this Diwali with firecrackers to show the ‘wokes’ their place, I realised the word has crossed some kind of a threshold. And then I noticed social media was f...

Nov 07, 202120 min

#145 The Escalation Ladder of Outrage

India Policy Watch #1: What Outrage Means Insights on burning policy issues in India — RSJ Last week while writing about the Fabindia Diwali ad and the accompanying outrage, I wrote that this ‘arms race of purity’ might become a familiar feature in our cultural landscape. This week we got this : “Homegrown FMCG player Dabur has withdrawn its advertisement on Karva Chauth showing a lesbian couple celebrating the festival in the ad campaign of its Fem Creme bleach and has issued unconditionally ap...

Oct 31, 202123 min

#144 Yeh Democracy Hai Aur Yahan Hamari Pawri Ho Rahi Hai

Back with a new edition of this newsletter. We spent the past 5 weeks trying to work on a few long pending items that needed our attention. Unsurprisingly, the earth went on spinning and nobody missed us. Not much work got done either. Anyway, things happened in these intervening weeks. We reached a billion vaccine jabs last week. Quite an achievement. We often lament about the ineffective state and the poor health infrastructure in India. But there’s no denying there are times when the state ca...

Oct 24, 202124 min

#143 This Day, That Year, Their Civilisation 🎧

Programming Note: We are brewing another writing project. Since it demands some undivided attention (haha, so naïve!) we will not be posting for the next five weeks. We will republish a few of our older posts, maybe a few links and brief notes every week till then. Regular programming resumes on 23rd October 2021. Global Policy Watch #1: 9/11, Toynbee and Civilisations Bringing an Indian perspective to global issues — RSJ I write this on the 20th anniversary of 9/11. Like most adults, I have a c...

Sep 12, 202131 min

#142 The Games We Play 🎧

Matsyanyaaya : Not So Great Game Theory in Afghanistan Big fish eating small fish = Foreign Policy in action — Guest Post by Ameya Naik US intelligence agencies considered it likely that the Taliban would retake control of all or most of Afghanistan following US withdrawal. Their estimate, however, was that this would take weeks or even months; the idea that Kabul would fall in a matter of days was considered a worst-case scenario. Now that the worst case has played out, analysts are scrambling ...

Sep 05, 202127 min

#141 Pakistan, Afghanistan....Hindustan: The Akhanda Bharat Edition 🎧

Matsyanyaaya #1 : What Does Pakistan’s Cadmean Victory in Afghanistan Mean for India Big fish eating small fish = Foreign Policy in action — Pranay Kotasthane (This is a draft of my article which appeared first in Times of India’s Tuesday, August 23rd edition .) Taliban's takeover of Kabul is forcing India to reassess its aims and objectives concerning Afghanistan. Of primary interest is the impact of this development on Pakistan. On this question, two views have come to light over the last few ...

Aug 29, 202138 min

#140 We Do Need Education 🎧

India Policy Watch: Chinese Checkers Insights on burning policy issues in India - RSJ We often write about China here. And we make three points: * China is a model of authoritarian state-driven capitalism. There should be no illusion anymore it will turn into a liberal democracy as its citizens gain greater economic freedom. The Party will find new market demons to slay to send out a convincing message to the people that only it can usher in a stable and prosperous society. It will continue to u...

Aug 22, 202120 min

#139 A Question Of Sports

Programming Note: We will be taking off next week. We will return on Aug 22. Not(PolicyWTF): Retrospective Admission Of A Mistake This section looks at egregious public policies. Policies that make you go: WTF, Did that really happen? - RSJ On Thursday, the Finance Minister tabled the Taxation Laws (Amendment) Bill, 2021 which sought to scrap the tax claims raised on the back of an amendment to the Income Tax Act brought about by the UPA-2 government in May 2012. The 2012 amendment was meant to ...

Aug 08, 202117 min

#138 Empire Of The Clouds (And Beyond) 🎧

Global Policy Watch: Ud Jayega Bezos Akela* Bringing an Indian perspective to burning global issues - RSJ Homo sapiens first went to space in 1961. 60 years later, a new species, decidedly less superior than Homo sapiens, has succeeded in going to space. Billionaires. Remarkable. So, what should we make of it? A Race To Nowhere There are three arguments against the space race among billionaires. And these arguments play into the wider debate about capitalism and inequality that’s roiling the dev...

Aug 01, 202123 min

#137 Opening Up And Closing Down 🎧

India Policy Watch #1: A Winged Horse And A Prison Insights on burning policy issues in India - RSJ Heh! Let’s start in the most unoriginal way possible: Behind Winston’s back the voice from the telescreen was still babbling away….. The telescreen received and transmitted simultaneously. Any sound that Winston made, above the level of a very low whisper, would be picked up by it, moreover, so long as he remained within the field of vision which the metal plaque commanded, he could be seen as wel...

Jul 25, 202117 min

#136 Xi Is Unfriending Big Tech

Matsyanyaaya : The Rational Actor Trap Big fish eating small fish = Foreign Policy in action — Pranay Kotasthane Nothing succeeds like success. Once you are perceived as being successful, new narratives emerge that trace a neat path explaining how success was attained through grit, foresight, and determination. The role of chance fades in the background. All stories show how the hero withstood the odds, took the right decisions, and defeated a world that was stacked against it. Sometimes, nation...

Jul 18, 202129 min

#135 The Nehruvian Ideal 🎧

While excellent newsletters on specific themes within public policy already exist, this thought letter is about frameworks, mental models, and key ideas that will hopefully help you think about any public policy problem in imaginative ways. Audio narration by Ad-Auris . Pranay was on this week’s The Seen and the Unseen discussing all things public policy with ace podcaster, writer and thinker, Amit Varma. India Policy Watch: Dilip Kumar And India Insights on burning policy issues in India - RSJ ...

Jul 11, 202118 min

#134 "Phir Bhi Dil Hai Hindustani" Or "तथापि हृदय भारतीय अस्ति"? 🎧

While excellent newsletters on specific themes within public policy already exist, this thought letter is about frameworks, mental models, and key ideas that will hopefully help you think about any public policy problem in imaginative ways. Audio narration by Ad-Auris . India Policy Watch: प Se Pew. प Se Pluralism Insights on burning policy issues in India - RSJ I’m sure by now most of you would have seen the findings of the new Pew survey on religion in India. The report is here and the methodo...

Jul 04, 202123 min
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