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Donald Trump says Vladimir Putin would allow peacekeepers into Ukraine. But how would that work without US involvement? And would it be risky having soldiers from European nations... on Russia's doorstep. Today, Russia expert Matthew Sussex from the Centre for European Studies at the ANU on the three-year anniversary of the war and whether peace is really possible now. I'm Sam Hawley on Gadigal land in Sydney. This is ABC News Daily.
Explosions rang out before dawn in the cities of Kiev, Kharkiv and Odessa, followed by air sirens. Daylight is finally breaking over Maidan Square and I think a lot of Ukrainians. If they weren't awake already, they are now because we've heard more explosions just in the last few minutes. Matt, it's three years this week since Vladimir Putin really shocked the world and sent more than 100,000 troops across the border.
into Ukraine. It was an incredible moment, wasn't it? Absolutely, it was, Sam. And three years later, and, you know, 800 to 850,000. dead and injured Russians later, and goodness knows how many on the Ukrainian side, we find ourselves still in the biggest land war since World War II. Yeah, well, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, he's been marking the third anniversary of this war.
calling for allies to continue the support they have provided Ukraine. And he says he wants this war to end this year. We hope that we can finish this war this year. Not in three years. So, Matt, if you believe what Donald Trump says... He's the man to negotiate an end to this war. On the day of the anniversary, he met the French president at the White House, Emmanuel Macron.
There was a lot of long handshakes, that's for sure. Emmanuel, thank you very much. Great job and it's been wonderful being with you. Say hello to your beautiful wife. But some tense moments too, weren't there? Oh, that's absolutely right, yeah. Trump. uttered again the falsehood that europe has given aid to ukraine as a loan and overstated the amount once again so you understand europe
is loaning the money to Ukraine. They get their money back. And Macron jumped in and corrected him in real time. No, in fact, to be frank, we paid. We paid 60% of the total effort. You know, Europe is in fact. paid 60% of the amount of aid that's been given to Ukraine, and that we continue to do that because Russia was the aggressor. All of those who were paid for could be compensated, but not by Ukraine, by Russia. Because there was a amount of progress.
Well, during that meeting with President Trump, Emmanuel Macron emphasised the need for security guarantees for Kyiv in any peace deal, meaning... It mustn't be Ukraine surrendering if a peace deal is done.
Yeah, that's right. From the Ukrainian perspective, why would you stop fighting if you didn't have either the United States or failing that, a bunch of very powerful countries saying... that we will get involved if ukraine is attacked again because that would just simply be a green light to vladimir putin to go away for two years and rearm and then come back and try it again, basically with impunity. And it's not at all clear, is it, Matt?
what Vladimir Putin would be willing to give up in some sort of peace deal, what he would give to the deal. Yeah, that's right. So far, with the Trump-led negotiations or the Trump team negotiations, Russia has not been asked to give up anything at all. It's Ukraine that's been asked to surrender territory. There were even suggestions from Trump that Zelensky was a dictator.
you know, not a democratically elected leader. And the idea that Russia actually invaded Ukraine and started it is something that the Trump administration has really, really struggled to articulate. There was a vote in the United Nations in which the United States voted no to a UN. General Assembly resolution that said Russia was to blame for the war and in doing so it found itself with new friends, North Korea, Belarus, Iran.
Well, in an interview released by the Kremlin, President Vladimir Putin, he didn't seem to be suggesting that a deal was as close as perhaps Donald Trump. thinks it is. We certainly touched on issues related to the Ukrainian crisis. However, it was not discussed in essence. We only agreed that we would approach it. That's right.
Trump wants a deal quickly because he promised one quickly. He said he could end the conflict in one day. Then that became 100 days. But this is effectively Putin seeing how much he can get, turning up the pressure on the Trump administration. because every day that goes past without a deal is one that reflects badly on the US president.
And I think Putin in saying, well, you know, we want a stable peace resolution is essentially saying we want more territory and we want less influence by the United States and by Europe. OK, well, Matt, let's turn to what would happen after a peace deal is reached, if it is reached. After this meeting with Macron, Donald Trump was asked about whether Vladimir Putin...
would accept European peacekeepers in Ukraine. And he says he will. Yeah, he will accept that. If we do this deal, he's not looking for... More worry doesn't mind but I've specifically asked him that question. He has no problem with but do you think? Putin would really be happy with that. Well, Putin might agree to it as basically a negotiating tactic to say initially that, no, I won't go for that, and then ultimately say, yes, that's OK.
Because peacekeepers come in a variety of different flavours, frankly. Sometimes we hear the term peacekeeping and we think, oh, yes, you know, they're there to stop. physically stop combatants from fighting one another. But that's actually really rarely the case. Peacekeepers sometimes have rules of engagement that are so tight that they're just monitors.
They're off to the side. And there are huge questions about what kind of international peacekeeping force there would be there. Would they be able to fight back if they were shot at? Would they be able to fight on the side of the Ukrainians if...
the Russians decided to have another go. And also, if they weren't big enough, if they weren't there in enough numbers, then they'd actually be a drag on the Ukrainians because they would have to provide this peacekeeping force with security and protect it. Yeah, and where are they placed? Emmanuel Macron says they wouldn't be sent any peacekeepers to the front line. Where do they go? Well, I mean, the suggestion has been for something called a reassurance force.
which doesn't sound all that potent, actually. But, you know, a force made up of various European nations, not including American troops, because Trump has said that there would be no US troops on the ground. And this makes, of course, the Europeans. worried that, well, what happens if those peacekeeping forces, even though they're way back from the line of contact, if they're attacked?
Does that bring NATO into it because an attack against one is supposed to be an attack against all? And the Trump administration has suggested, no, that's not the case. which means that realistically European troops in Ukraine will have to kind of fend for themselves and rely on their own national governments. when the EU itself doesn't actually have an army. Everything goes through NATO. Gosh, okay. Very complicated. Matt, amidst...
all of this talk of a peace deal, of course, we need to touch on this rather intriguing discussion around minerals of all things. In the interview we mentioned earlier with Vladimir Putin, he said The US and Russia, they can work together... to exploit Russia's mineral wealth. What on earth is he on about? Well, basically, Putin is proposing a new economic compact with the United States. The Russians have a large...
amount of territory and they have access to critical minerals. And this is something that Trump wants very badly, whether he can get it from Ukraine or whether he can get it for Russia. And from Putin's perspective, he wants to do a deal because... His economy is, frankly, on the verge of tanking by the end of this year. We talk here in Australia about interest rates being 4.1%. In Russia, they're 21%. You know, inflation is running at 10%.
So that is something that would really be weighing on Putin's mind and doing a big deal with the Americans would be a massive boost to the Russian economy. Yeah, and Trump, of course, as you mentioned, he also wants this deal with Ukraine. Well, that's all about money and repayment. Yes, Trump has plucked this $500 billion figure, seems to be from the air. sort of reparations for the assistance that it's given Ukraine, which is...
around about $115, $120 billion. Now he wants this back in the form of Ukrainian mineral resources, and it's just basically, I guess, minerals extortion. that you give us half of your minerals and we don't give you anything in return. Well, Matt, three years into the war, can Europe, and for that matter, nations like Australia, trust Donald Trump and the US to help deter their enemies, or should...
alliances with the United States now be taken with a grain of salt? Well, look, I probably would have said something different three weeks ago, but I think it's becoming increasingly the case that... The US is regarded now as an unreliable security partner. The fact that you have both the incoming new German leader, Merz, as well as Macron and other European leaders saying, well, we need to look to our own security and defence now.
and basically look to self-help. So, yeah, there is, I think, a real tension that the United States is indifferent at the very best to security concerns in Europe. and hopefully not indifferent to security concerns in Asia either. Well, if we can't trust the US, how can Europe and Ukraine... trust that any peace deal that is done would be lasting, that Putin wouldn't just rearm and send in the troops again in a few years' time to try what he failed to do in the first instance, which is...
take all of Ukraine. Yeah, well, that's the big question, isn't it? You know, how far can you trust Vladimir Putin? I was interested to see some of the comments from the Polish foreign minister just about 24 hours ago that said, if Europe decided to keep supplying Ukraine with weapons, then it's absolutely the case Ukraine could remain in the fight against Russia for the rest of the year and considerably beyond that as well. So there are options. I mean, it could be that...
Ukraine and Europe say, well, you know, we don't want this dead cat deal that's been negotiated above our heads by Washington and Moscow, and we're not going to go for it, and Ukraine fights on. The problem with that, of course, is that Trump will say that Europe and Ukraine don't want peace at all. They're warmongers.
might seek to draw down support for the NATO alliance and perhaps pull some US troops out. So what's your feeling on that? Do you think three years into this war, a peace deal, a peace deal where Ukraine doesn't just surrender? can actually be done, and can it be done soon? Look, it's possible we might get a ceasefire, but I don't think it'll hold. Absent, really decent. international guarantees for ukrainian sovereignty there's no way it can hold
And there'll be provocations on both sides. There'll be cyber attacks. There'll be what we call sub-threshold attacks, acts of sabotage, bombings and so forth. So it's really, really hard to see it lasting without a really... ironclad security guarantee for for kiev about where russian occupied territories start and stop and how much support there is for the ukrainian government because
The Russians will also try and remove Zelensky and install someone who's sympathetic to Russia, thus achieving by politics what they couldn't achieve by force. Matthew Sussex is from the Centre for European Studies at the Australian National University. And just a heads up, next week we'll have something special for you. A five-part series explaining how we're all held hostage by the cost and availability of housing. That starts on Monday the 3rd of March.
This episode was produced by Sydney Peat and Cara Jensen-McKinnon. Audio production by Adair Shepard. Our supervising producer is David Coney. I'm Sam Hawley. Thanks for listening.