From Schwartz Media. I'm Ruby Jones. This is seven am, one year on from the October seven attacks against Israel. The region is bracing for more more. It seems almost certain Israel will launch a retaliatory attack against Iran after it fired ballistic missiles at Israel last week. Meanwhile, over the weekend, Israel continued its air strikes on Lebanon, with
multiple explosions reported in the suburbs of the capital Beirut. Today, Israel correspondent for the Economist Anshulfeffer on where the Middle East is headed and how or if the fighting can end. It's Monday, October seventh, So Angel, right now, it's Sunday morning, where you are in Jerusalem, one day out from the anniversary of the Harmas attacks on Israel that began this chapter of conflict in the Middle East. What is it like in Israel at this moment.
Well, it's hard to properly I think mark the date, both because there's still such a heavy feeling of trauma which really hasn't dissipated here for an entire year of that date. And you know, many Israelis are saying that they still feel that they're still living in October seven as a writer who wrote that today is the three hundred and seventh day of October, and it's still for many many Israel there isn't a feeling yet of perspective
of time that's passed. And I think what really is making that's so difficult to gain that perspective is that the country is still at war, and not just the war in guards and now we're talking about a war which is rapidly escalated in the a few weeks with Hisbela in Lebanon.
Can you tell me about the last few days in Lebanon. What's been happening.
Oh, I mean, the news is on everybody's screen around the world. Tensions remain high in the Middle East following further Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon and the occupied West Bank overnight been carrying out a much wider campaign of air strikes which are aimed at destroying as much of
his Blas military infrastructure in Lebanon. Sadly, it also means a lot of suffering for civilians because most of Isbela's military infrastructure, the missile arsenals and launchers, were built under cities and villages and towns.
War in the skies and now on land to Israel's first full scale ground incursion into Lebanon for nearly two decades on Monday night, met little resistant.
And on the ground, the Israeli forces went in as a week ago by now and began what the Israeli Army says it's limited operation to clear the border area from his launchers and tunnels and positions which were threatening Israeli communities on the Israeli side of the border.
And as you said, Israel is now at war on many fronts in Lebanon, but also still in Gaza. So how has this escalation against Hezbola impacted what we're seeing on the ground in Gaza.
I think that the relatives scaling down of the ground operations in Gaza, the fact that the israel Is now deploying a much smaller force there than it did at at the height of the war nine or ten months ago, has also enabled is Or to pivot away from Gaza and focus on leban And we're still seeing Israeli presence
in the two main corridors. And then there there are occasional raids and operations in various parts of gars against places where Hamas has re established its presence, so that dynamic has been a situation for a few months by now, and there is an argument within the Israeli leadership, mainly between the military, the generals, the security chiefs, and the Tanyaoan part of his government over whether it's or can actually wind down the operations in ghars Are totally and
try and reach some kind of ceasefire agreement which will also enable the release of Israeli hostages there. So we're in that almost twilight period now in Ghuz. There still is a war, but this scale is smaller than it was before, and one is where in General described it in an off record conversation a few days ago as stagnation that these Raeli army isn't really happy with that sort of unclear situation. They want a clearer goal there which is not being provided by the government.
And last week we saw Iran's largest ever attack on Israel with missiles aimed at military bases. Those missiles were mostly intercepted, but how significant was the fact of Iran's intervention.
Well, if Iran has been a presence in this conflict from the start, and it was a major backer of hamas they supplied a lot of the know how, a lot of the money for Hamas's arms which we use
on October seven. Supply the inspiration, on the other hand, around almost certainly wasn't part of the actual decision to launch October seven, And the timing doesn't seem to have been very convenient for them, because their strategy has always been a much more gradual strategy of building up these capabilities, and then when Hamas rushed ahead on October seven, that probably wasn't the best of timing for them that I think they perhaps would have preferred to do this in
a more coordinated way. And the fact that Iran is now twice back in April and then last week launched these salvos of missiles at Israel means where we're at a new stage where it's not just Iran arming and directing its proxies to firing it on, but they also found themselves and missiles strike didn't have that much of an impact, But what it has done is it has made it clear that we are now at this stage of a direct confrontation between Israel and Iran, and Israel
is now going to have to retaliate this, and some, in fact, some Israeli military chieftain. I think the Tagno himself were actually quite pleased that they had this opportunity or what they call the legitimacy, to strike directly against Iran. And that's that's a whole new stage of this war that we're still waiting to see how it plays.
Out coming up after the break. Benjamin Nya, who's calculations on when and how to attack Iran, Angel Benjamina, who has said that Israel has a quote duty to strike back against Iran and will do so. And he also said there is nowhere in the Middle East Israel cannot reach. So tell me what do you think the calculations are that that now he was making as he decides in this moment how to respond to we ran well.
I think there are three calculations here. One is what indeed Original's capabilities in the and others ready chiefs have said that is Or can hit anywhere in the Middle East. Technically it's true, so that's the operational calculation. Then there's a wider international calculation that any serious type of operation is Or would need some level of cooperation from the
Americans and perhaps from other other allies. Both here in the region and international allies that the question is what are they willing to do and what kind of operation they're willing to take in to cooperate in that limits well can do. And then the third calculation is what Israel should do with this opportunity. And as far as Minter the Als concern, the way he sees it, the Iranian strike last week has given him an opportunity and many things he'd like to do with this sort of
justified retaliation. And that's why we're hearing talk and I know this is something that is being discussed of Israel going against Iran's jewel in the crown, the nuclear sights, which is something obviously that America and other Western allies are perhaps less eager to see happen. At this point.
A Sel Benjamin Netanya, who vowed to destroy Hamas and bring all of the hostages home, he has not been able to do that. So as the war has expanded, how have Israel's stated aims changed and what are they now?
Well, the state of aims were at the beginning were to destroy Hamas's military capabilities and its governance in Gaza and to return the hostages, and a couple of weeks ago, they added another ada to allow Israeli citizens in the north to return to their homes, those sixty to seventy thousand Israelis who were forced to leave their homes in northern Israel because of Risbolla firing rockets on their homes. So that's the addition of Lebanon to the war aims
is the one change here. But the truth is that the war aims are sort of these words on a piece of paper or in a government statement. The real question of what's the endgame, how Israel sees guards as seas its relationship with Garza on the day after this war, same thing with Lebanon. What kind of cease fire with his Bola? You will allow an end to the war in Lebanon and for a return of Israeli citizens there, and for obviously a return for the Lebanese citizens have
been uprooted by this war. None of these things are clear, and none of these things are being stated in the same way that we still don't know beyond these slogans of Israel will retaliate forcefully against Iran, we don't really know what the Israeli government is hoping to achieve in
this retaliation. Yes, there will be a retaliation, but then what will this just be aspiraling a series of attacks going back and forth with a point which is all will feel that it's achieved what it needs to achieve. So you know, you can talk about war aims, but the problem is is that there's no clarity really on that.
So angel as we speak, the entire region is on a knife stage. We've heard Israel promise a retaliatory attack on Iran. Iran in turn has said that any attack would be met with a quote unconventional response from them. So this is the most tense moment in the Middle East in decades. Can you see a way that the situation could de escalate? Is that even still possible at this moment?
I think it'd be very very premature to predict the escalation because every point in the the last year when we thought maybe here you can reach some kind of a deal or the escalation, something happened to further escalate matters. And even as I said before, but when Guards has seemed to be winding down, then that his Bolan Lebanon escalated and then Iran escalated. So there isn't one easy path here out of this, and with Iran. The real
question is what's their calculation. Do they have a point where they feel that also they're going to unleash everything that they have, or is the pressure on them and they have their own issues at home. They've got an economy which is on the brink of collapse, They've got a lot of unrest within Iran. Does that at some point deter them from escalating? That obviously is to do with what Israel is going to do. How calibrated will
Israel's response be? And it looked for it for almost ten a month or so that his Balala Iran was sort of keeping to this very measured type of wharf. They were only Irather than find direct except once in April, because but our find only at Israeli communities and bases near the border. And they made this assumption that Israel wouldn't escalate because this one would fear as well as missiles attack, a hitting tail I live and so on.
That that turned out to be a mistake by Isbell and Iran and Australia has now paid for that mistake with his life. So at some point, you know, the science will have to step back. But their calculations until now have proven to be wrong. They haven't managed to calibrate their responses to allowing that room for maneuver and for walking back from the brink, which is why we are at this point we are now, and I don't think that it's going to be at all simple to
de escualas anything. That for the next days and weeks, Israel will be using this opportunity, certainly Eleben and to continue striking acts as well as infrastructure. There are question ken Iran sort of say, okay, we find these missiles against Israel, we hit them, and whatever Isuel does now, we take what we've done as our win. And like I say, it very much depends on what Isuel does next.
And so I'm really sorry, but I can't give you any kind of positive idea of a de escalation right now because I don't see one.
Angel. Thank you so much for your time.
Thank you. I'm sorry I can't give you any kind of optimistic outlook, but it isn't well much right right now.
Also in the news today, thousands of pro Palestinian protesters gathered in Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide. Yesterday. Around seven thousand people attended the demonstration in Melbourne, and police said they were overall pleased with the behavior of attendees, although four
people were arrested for public order related matters. In New South Wales, police had initially sought to block the Sydney rally from going ahead, but an agreement was reached with organizers to march an alternate route away from the Great Synagogue, Sidney's oldest Jewish congregation. The ABC reports that one man was arrested in Sydney for carrying an Israeli flag with a swastika in place of the Star of David and Donald Trump has held a campaign rally in Pennsylvania at
the exact place he was nearly assassinated in July. Pennsylvania is a critical swing state in this year's presidential election. Mister Trump picked up where he left off after the bullet grazed his ear, beginning his speech with the words as I was saying, and continuing to discuss immigration, which he had been talking about when he was shot at Elon Musk was present in the crowd, with the billionaire jumping on stage at one point and declaring that mister
Trump had saved free speech. I'm Ruby Jones, this is seven am. Thanks for listening,