Markets wobble after Trump threatens 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, which forced the Aussie and Kiwi dollars down to near one-year lows. The RBNZ is expected to cut by 50 bps and the RBA is watching for disinflation progress. In our bonus deep dive interview, ahead of today’s RBNZ decision, ANZ Senior Economist Miles Workman analyses last week’s growth warning from the New Zealand Treasury . Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institut...
Nov 26, 2024•10 min
US markets bounce on hedge fund manager Scott Bessent’s selection as Treasury secretary, easing deficit and tariff fears. Singapore’s inflation is dragged down by a strong currency, and a fall in New Zealand Q3 retail sales should mark the bottom of the current recession. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur looks at why the Phillipines’s current account deficit has risen sharply since April, and explores the wider implications. Befor...
Nov 25, 2024•10 min
Global stocks rise again after strong US business activity surveys. This week’s focus is on the Fed ’s minutes and US inflation data, along with Australian inflation figures and a rates decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand . In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Australia Economist Maddy Dunk highlights a counterintuitive move in housing affordability in one state capital. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast...
Nov 24, 2024•9 min
Oil rises on an escalating conflict in Ukraine. US jobs and business confidence data is mixed. Australian housing affordability worsens again and New Zealand’s Treasury warns growth will be weaker than its May forecast and widen the budget deficit. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Commodity Strategist Soni Kumari explains why ANZ Research thinks gold will continue to attract demand despite recent price drops. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/i...
Nov 21, 2024•9 min
Global stocks wobble as Ukraine conflict fears escalate. UK inflation is hotter than expected. China’s banks hold lending rates amid a focus on fiscal stimulus, and Bank Indonesia says post-Trump currency moves have affected its ability to cut rates. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Rates Strategist Jennifer Kusuma looks at the implications of US President-elect Donald Trump’s win for Asian local currency bond yields. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https...
Nov 20, 2024•9 min
Stocks are jittery and safe havens in demand this morning after an escalation of the conflict in Ukraine overnight. The RBA ’s minutes indicate it may cut earlier than previously expected and Australian consumer confidence is still trending higher. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes analyses the outlook for Chinese steel production and iron ore prices ahead of looming US tariffs under a Donald Trump Presidency. Before accessing this podcast, please r...
Nov 19, 2024•9 min
Oil prices rise 3% as the Russia-Ukraine war escalates. US Treasury yields edge up as traders price a December rate cut by the Fed at 50-50. And RBA minutes today are being watched to see how hawkish the rate-setting board continues to be. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Miles Workman explains how the RBNZ’s more aggressive start to OCR cuts has shifted New Zealand economy’s growth outlook upwards. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.an...
Nov 18, 2024•10 min
The Trump trade takes a breather. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is less dovish than expected. China’s retail sales surge, leaving it on track for 4.9% GDP growth this year. And was the Trump trade actually about Trump? Or about a very clear election result? In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes analyses the risks of Australia’s gas supply getting redirected into the international market, and what might replace it domestically. Before accessing this podcast, p...
Nov 17, 2024•9 min
US producer price inflation rises a bit, but a rate cut remains on the table. The US dollar nears a two-year high on the ‘'Trump Trade’. Australia’s jobless rate holds but employment growth slows, and there are signs of life in New Zealand’s housing market. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes looks at how Australia’s East Coast gas suppliers have dealt with entry into the global market. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at http...
Nov 14, 2024•9 min
Bets firm for a December rate cut by the Fed as US disinflation continues. Australian wage growth is lower than expected, but that might not move the RBA. The Yen weakens further as the US dollar continues its surge - the Aussie and Kiwi fall as well. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh continues our coverage of the effects of Donald Trump’s election victory on global markets. Chinese authorities moved yesterday to support a weakening Yuan, while foreign investm...
Nov 13, 2024•9 min
US stocks take a breather, while Treasury yields and Bitcoin continue to surge following the US election. Australian consumers and businesses are the most confident since early 2023, and New Zealand’s economic slump looks to have bottomed out. ANZ Senior Senior China Strategist Zhaopeng Xing says China’s authorities look to have held off announcing a larger stimulus package last week to keep their powder dry for whatever a Donald Trump -led United States throws at their economy. Before accessing...
Nov 12, 2024•9 min
The Trump trade surge continues: Bitcoin hits a new record high and the US dollar bounced another half-percent overnight. Expectations for another Fed rate cut in December grow more wobbly; and weary ECB policy makers suggest rate cuts could help ward off negative US trade moves. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton analyses a surge in jobs in aged care and disabled care, which is lifting female workforce participation. Before accessing this podcast, p...
Nov 11, 2024•9 min
The Fed cuts by 25 basis points as expected, with one more expected next month. The Fed is being cautious as the US economy lands softly. China’s EV exports to Australia surge. New Zealand is wary of how tariffs might affect beef exports. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur analyses how Trump’s tariffs might affect economies in Asia, outside of China. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/inst...
Nov 10, 2024•10 min
US stocks rise again with hopes a dominant Trump Presidency will be good for growth and profits, but Treasury yields fell ahead of the Fed ’s decision. The Bank of England cuts, but looser British fiscal policy may slow more cuts. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Economist Vicky Xiao Zhou explains how well China is prepared for Trump tariffs 2.0. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Nov 07, 2024•9 min
US stocks surge more than 2% to fresh record highs as stock investors celebrate Donald Trump ’s re-election. But bond holders aren’t so sure. US Treasury yields jumped 18 basis points to a six-month high as traders bet on tax cuts, higher borrowing and growth. Meanwhile New Zealand’s jobless rate rises less than expected, and Malaysia holds rates. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman analyses the currency implications of that election win, following a sizeabl...
Nov 06, 2024•9 min
US stocks and Treasury yields are up on election day as data suggests whoever wins is going to inherit a growing US economy. Meanwhile, the RBA holds and stays mildly hawkish, and New Zealand’s unemployment rate is expected to tick up today. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner reviews the recent leap in ANZ’s Business Outlook survey and looks ahead to the Reserve Bank’s rate decision at the end of the month. Before accessing this podcast, please read ...
Nov 05, 2024•10 min
The US dollar and Treasury yields fell overnight as opinion polls pointed to a narrow Kamala Harris victory; In Australia today the RBA is expected to hold rates but shift to a more neutral tone, and Australia’s jobs market shows more signs of strength. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung looks at how a Trump Presidency might affect trade in Asia, vs a Harris Presidency. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz...
Nov 04, 2024•10 min
US jobs growth was much weaker than expected in October, but the Fed is still on track to cut rates 25 basis points later this week. December is not as certain for another cut though. And watch out this week for more stimulus news from China. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin teases out how the Fed, financial markets and bond investors view a Harris win, or a Trump win. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institut...
Nov 03, 2024•10 min
The Bank of Japan holds rates, but signals more still on the cards; UK rate cut bets retreat after new Government’s first budget, Australian retail sales jump and China’s manufacturing sector expands ahead of further stimulus expected next week. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Economist Vicky Xiao Zhou (Showe Jo) looks at the rise …and the rise of China’s electric vehicle industry. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-p...
Oct 31, 2024•10 min
US GDP is boosted by strong consumer spending while European growth beats expectations. Australian inflation falls - but rate cuts still aren’t on the cards for this year. And the Bank of Japan is expected to hold rates today against a backdrop of political uncertainty. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, as Indonesia’s new President is finally sworn in following February’s election, ANZ Economist Krystal Tan looks at what his new policy priorities could mean for commodities and the state budget. ...
Oct 30, 2024•10 min
US consumer confidence lifts, ahead of stronger GDP figures expected today, although weaker jobs data shows signs of a cooling labour market; And Australian consumer confidence stays strong ahead of data today expected to show headline inflation fall to within the RBA’s target band. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman analyses the potential impact today’s inflation numbers could have on the Aussie dollar. Before accessing this podcast, please read the discla...
Oct 29, 2024•9 min
Oil prices slump 5.5% on hopes the tit-for-tat strikes between Israel and Iran might not escalate. The yen falls on uncertainty about a new Government in Japan, and gas prices are rising as European buyers hunt for LNG supplies for the European winter. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Commodity Strategist Soni Kumari explains why China is stockpiling copper as a strategic metal. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podca...
Oct 28, 2024•8 min
Traders are bracing for hits to the yen and the Nikkei after surprising losses for Japan’s ruling party in election results overnight. Japan’s inflation is firming in line with Bank of Japan hopes, and US non-farm payrolls are the big figures to watch this week. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ’s Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman looks at the Trump trade in global currency and bond markets. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five...
Oct 27, 2024•9 min
The US labour market remains resilient, while UK and European production is still contracting. South Korea growth disappoints as exports drag, and Japan’s Finance Minister raises concerns as the yen slides against a resurgent US dollar In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga looks at what China might learn from its current economic support efforts, and how quickly India might catch up. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com...
Oct 24, 2024•8 min
US stocks are dragged down by big tech names. European rate cut bets move further towards 50 basis points in December. Canada cuts rates by 50 basis points, and Singapore’s inflation is higher than expected, but provides enough for policy easing. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga was in China during the recent stimulus briefings and gives us his take on what the domestic economy there is facing. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at htt...
Oct 23, 2024•10 min
US Fed officials point to smaller, cautious cuts, Australian consumers look through later rate cuts and to job safety as confidence jumps, and falls in some New Zealand imports point to underlying economic weakness. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Hynes analyses concerns that China has been building up excessive stockpiles of key imports at the same time as domestic activity has been dropping off. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer ...
Oct 22, 2024•8 min
Gold jumps to new highs. China’s banks cut lending rates more than expected to jolt demand. Iron ore and oil prices fall after China stimulus disappointment, and the RBA is encouraged by rate cut bets being pushed out after strong jobs data. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung explains why investors weren’t too keen on China’s recent property support package. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institu...
Oct 21, 2024•10 min
The S&P 500 starts the week fresh after hitting a new record high on Friday. China’s GDP beats expectations, but a big fourth quarter jump is required to hit the official target. Japan’s core inflation continues to support cautious BoJ rate hikes. ANZ Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin reviews the key September economic data prints in the US to explain why market pricing for November and December rate cuts by the US Fed are starting to be dialled back. Before accessing this podcast, please re...
Oct 20, 2024•9 min
The European Central Bank cuts by 25 basis points as inflation falls below target; US rate cut bets are pulled back following stronger retail sales; Australian jobs growth surges; And China announces further measures to support its property market. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk looks at the effects that changing household sizes and investor lending are having on Australia’s housing market. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.c...
Oct 17, 2024•9 min
New Zealand’s inflation falls more than expected, with markets now wondering if a 75 basis point cut in November is on the cards; UK inflation was also weaker; Australian jobs growth is expected to slow; And the Philippines and Thailand cut rates. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Miles Workman explains what New Zealand’s weaker inflation could mean for the Reserve Bank’s November decision. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/inst...
Oct 16, 2024•10 min
