A weakening UK jobs market points to a November Bank of England cut; Concern over China stimulus grows; FOMC members talk of 25bps cuts by the Fed ; New Zealand inflation is set to return to target; Three rates decisions today in Asia. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk discusses signs that Australia’s housing market is starting to cool - particularly in Melbourne. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-...
Oct 15, 2024•9 min
Chinese stocks rise after more stimulus was promised over the weekend, but bond investors remain wary. Singapore holds policy but turns dovish, even as growth strengthens. India’s inflation unexpectedly jumps in September. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ International Economist Kishti Sen analyses the outlook for Pacific Island currencies as global monetary policy easing takes off. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-p...
Oct 14, 2024•10 min
Solid US producer prices add to signals the Fed will be cautious in November; South Korea cuts rates, but now looks to pause; And Chinese inflation is weaker than expected, with traders also underwhelmed by Saturday’s stimulus briefing. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Senior China Strategist Zhaopeng Xing outlines why that weekend briefing by China’s Finance Ministry did not deliver what investors were looking for. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.an...
Oct 13, 2024•9 min
US inflation outpaces expectations, supporting bets for a 25 basis point cut by the Fed in November; Japan’s producer prices are stronger than expected; A manufacturing bounce in Singapore may lead its Monetary Authority to hold policy next week. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ FX Analyst Kausani Basak analyses how the Thai Baht was the second strongest Asian currency in Q3, prompting the Bank of Thailand to intervene. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://ww...
Oct 10, 2024•9 min
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cuts by 50 basis points and markets price another outsized move in November; Attention turns to US inflation data after last week’s strong jobs report; The Reserve Bank of India holds but moves to a neutral stance. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, as China’s Finance Ministry announces a fiscal policy briefing for Saturday, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung analyses the growth prospects for China’s economy. Before accessing this podcast, please r...
Oct 09, 2024•8 min
Oil fell back 5% overnight on fears about China’s growth outlook. The RBA tones down the hawkishness in its September board minutes. All eyes are on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand ’s rate decision today - will it be 25 or 50 basis points? In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung explains why China’s National Development and Reform Commission didn’t announce any additional fiscal stimulus at yesterday’s briefing, but why some might be around the corne...
Oct 08, 2024•10 min
Oil is up another 3% on fears of escalating Middle East conflict; Friday’s bumper US jobs report has seen bets for a 50 basis point cut by the Fed in November evaporate; And China’s stock market braces for a renewed surge after the Golden Week holidays. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Economist Henry Russell says there are signs the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s August rate cut may have already spurred some housing market activity. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer ...
Oct 07, 2024•10 min
US jobs growth was much stronger than expected, which lifted US Treasury yields 12-20 bps and shunted the US dollar 0.5% higher. Economists also now see a 50 basis point cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on Wednesday In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton reveals what a surprising rise in workforce participation means for interest rates. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podca...
Oct 06, 2024•9 min
Global markets are skittish this morning on fears the conflict in the Middle East will lift oil prices. Australia’s labour market and services sector remain resilient in PMI data, and NZ house prices fall again, despite the RBNZ starting rate cuts. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Agriculture Economist Susan Kilsby looks at what the US dock workers’ strike could mean for Australia and New Zealand. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional...
Oct 03, 2024•10 min
Markets are mixed as traders analyse just how much escalation is possible in the conflict between Israel and Iran across the Middle East. There’s further strength in the US jobs market, and inflation in South Korea has fallen below the central bank’s target. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur outlines the prospects for Asian economies across the fourth quarter. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.a...
Oct 02, 2024•9 min
Oil prices have jumped, US Treasury yields US stocks are down and the US dollar is up in a flight to safety after reports that Iran has launched missiles at Israel; the US labour market is showing signs of resilience, while rate cut expectations in Europe have been boosted by lower inflation overnight. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk discusses how sales in the lead up to Fathers’ Day in Australia helped retailers in August. Before accessing this podcast, please read th...
Oct 01, 2024•10 min
China’s stock market jumps 8.5% as investors rush in. Japan’s Nikkei falls nearly 5% on concerns the new Prime Minister there is an interest rate hawk. Australia’s housing market is softening. New Zealand business confidence takes another leap higher. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk says there are some silver linings in the recent bi-annual ANZ Core Logic Housing Affordability Report as affordability nationally worsened in June. Before accessing this podcast, please re...
Sep 30, 2024•10 min
US inflation kept falling through August. All eyes this week will be on US jobs data on Friday. Australian lending figures may show a rise today. And consumers in New Zealand are more confident about house prices, as well as their own finances. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Analyst Daniel Hynes looks at why Saudi Arabia might be about to swamp the market with extra oil to win back market share. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.an...
Sep 29, 2024•9 min
Gold, the S&P 500 and the Euro Stoxx 500 rose to fresh record-highs on enthusiasm about the Fed ’s first rate cut and China’s wide-ranging stimulus. Key US inflation data tonight is the next focus for global interest rates. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim sifts through India’s recent trade data to reveal why gold imports jumped in August. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Sep 26, 2024•10 min
Australian inflation drops within the RBA’s target band for the first time since October 2021, but sticky services prices could be a concern. The Aussie and Kiwi dollars are down about 1% after hitting fresh 2024 highs yesterday. Services inflation also remains sticky in Japan. In part two of a bonus Deep Dive interview on China’s stimulus drive, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung explains the risks of not doing more, including the prospect of a Japan-style ‘lost decade’. Before...
Sep 25, 2024•10 min
The Reserve Bank of Australia didn’t consider a hike as it held rates yesterday. Aussie consumer confidence jumps to its highest since January 2023, and August inflation data later today should show the temporary impact of cost of living support. The NZ dollar hits a new 2024 high. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung analyses yesterday’s China stimulus package and explains why it could have been bigger. Before accessing this podcast, please read ...
Sep 24, 2024•9 min
Federal Reserve members are backing their 50 basis point rate cut, supporting views of a soft landing. The Aussie dollar is strengthening ahead of potentially hawkish RBA rate commentary today. Expectations rise for a new China stimulus package. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Catherine Birch analyses how the RBA is placed for its cash rate decision today following last week’s 50 basis point cut by the Fed, and the ongoing strength in Australia’s jobs market. Before access...
Sep 23, 2024•9 min
Global markets are digesting the Fed ’s super-sized cut and the Bank of Japan ’s decision to hold its rates, as expected. Trading and investing focus now turns to RBA rates decision on Tuesday. China’s yuan surges as exporters bring cash home. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Asia Economist Krystal Tan analyses how lower oil prices are helping some South East Asian economies more than others. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five...
Sep 22, 2024•8 min
Global stocks are celebrating the Fed ’s big rate cut as confirmation of a soft landing. The Bank of England holds rates, as expected. The Bank of Japan is also seen holding later today. NZ GDP contracts less than the RBNZ forecast, reducing chances of an oversized cut. Australia’s jobs market continues to give the RBA a headache. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Henry Russell details the trip hazards of relying on high-frequency indicators, which the Reserve Bank of New Zealand m...
Sep 19, 2024•9 min
The Fed cuts by a super-sized 50 basis points and signals a total of 200 basis points of cuts by the end of 2025. Indonesia also cuts rates. The RBA will be watching Australian jobs data today. NZ’s GDP data is expected to show a contraction. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Geopolitical Risk Cameron Mitchell reviews the rise of tariffs as economic security tools, and what to expect on tariffs from whoever wins the US Presidential elections in November. Before accessing this podcast...
Sep 18, 2024•10 min
Strong US retail sales ease recession fears, adding slightly to expectations of a 25 basis point cut by the Fed; Australia’s consumer confidence jumps, Singapore’s chip exports get a boost, and Bank Indonesia faces a tough rates decision today. In our bonus deep dive interview, from the recent ANZ-sponsored AFR Asia summit, ANZ Head of Geopolitical Risk Cameron Mitchell explains why themes of de-globalisation and the de-coupling of the US and Chinese economies should be looked at through a diffe...
Sep 17, 2024•10 min
Market expectations for a 50 basis point cut by the Fed grow to 50/50 amid debate over whether the US jobs market is too weak for just a 25 bps move; And the Yen hits its strongest level against the US dollar since mid-2023. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Greater China, Raymond Yeung sees the potential for China to unveil a two trillion yuan stimulus package. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-p...
Sep 16, 2024•10 min
China is expected to launch a stimulus package after a very weak set of economic data. Global markets are focused on the Fed starting its rate-cutting cycle. The US dollar may hold up despite lower rates. NZ’s housing market is gearing up for spring. In part two of our bonus Deep Dive interview, Australia-Asia Society CEO Anthony Bubalo talked at the ANZ-sponsored AFR Asia Summit in Melbourne about the nuances businesses now face when thinking about geopolitics. Before accessing this podcast, pl...
Sep 15, 2024•8 min
The ECB cuts another 25 basis points, as expected. Global markets are firm ahead of next week’s Fed decision. India’s inflation is firm, but the RBI is on track to ease in December. NZ inflation is firmer than forecast, but not enough to concern the RBNZ . In our bonus Deep Dive interview, Australia-Asia Society CEO Anthony Bubalo analyses the key themes at the recent ANZ-sponsored AFR Asia Summit in Melbourne, including how Australian businesses grappling with geopolitics. Before accessing this...
Sep 12, 2024•9 min
US core inflation is stronger than expected in August causing markets to reduce bets for a 50 basis point cut by the Federal Reserve, the Yen hit its strongest 2024 level against the US dollar, and Australia’s strong labour market continues to surprise the RBA. In our bonus Deep Dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur reviews the potential impact for businesses of expected rate cuts in Indonesia, the Philippines and South Korea this year. Before accessing t...
Sep 11, 2024•9 min
Global markets are mixed ahead of key US inflation data tonight. Oil slumps below US$70/bbl after a demand forecast downgrade. China’s exports jump, but sluggish imports highlight soft domestic demand. And Australia’s Stage 3 tax cuts do little to spur business or consumer confidence. In in part two of a bonus deep dive interview with Australia’s Group of 8 universities CEO Vicki Thomson at the ANZ-sponsored AFR Asia Summit, Vicki explains why Australia’s universities believe there are alternati...
Sep 10, 2024•10 min
US markets bed in expectations for a soft landing ahead of key price data, China’s core inflation is the lowest in three years, prompting calls for more stimulus, and Taiwan’s exports get an AI boost. In our bonus deep dive interview, from the recent ANZ-sponsored AFR Asia summit, Australia’s Group of 8 universities CEO Vicki Thomson outlines the challenges facing Australia’s education export sector. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/f...
Sep 09, 2024•9 min
Mixed US jobs data means the debate about a 25 basis point cut or a 50 point cut by the Fed next week still very alive. Australian home lending to investors, is very strong. Vietnam’s economy is in a sweet spot, with falling inflation and strong exports. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Hynes looks at the implications for Australian Iron Ore producers from weakening Chinese steel demand. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://...
Sep 08, 2024•9 min
Markets were mixed ahead of key US jobs figures tonight; The RBA Governor talks tough in the fight against inflation; Malaysia keeps rates on hold, with lower inflation forecast, while Thailand’s annual CPI falls to just 0.35%. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Henry Russell reviews how New Zealand’s housing headwinds might keep the market from previous form as interest rates fall. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-i...
Sep 05, 2024•9 min
US Job vacancies were weaker than anyone expected in July, boosting chances of a larger cut by the Fed this month, Australia’s economy expands, although household spending weakens; as does China’s services sector. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Hynes sets out the challenges OPEC producers are facing from weakening global activity. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Sep 04, 2024•9 min
