Global stocks fall after weak US manufacturing data raises fears about a deeper slowdown. The Australian dollar is down over 1%; Australia’s GDP today should just be in growth territory, and South Korean inflation hits the central bank’s target. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga reviews Australia’s trade relationship with ASEAN, from the ANZ-sponsored AFR Asia summit in Melbourne. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www....
Sep 03, 2024•10 min
Global markets were quiet overnight due to the US Labor Day holiday. The final pieces of Australia’s GDP puzzle fall into place today; Job ads show a cooling Australian labour market, and we look at which state capital house prices are pulling away. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Miles Workman digs into New Zealand’s latest jobs data to highlight which sectors, regions and age groups are feeling the brunt of previous monetary policy tightening. Before accessing this podca...
Sep 02, 2024•9 min
Global markets are laser-focused on US jobs data this week to confirm the Fed can pinpoint a soft landing. Australia’s tax cuts are yet to show in retail sales growth. India’s GDP growth was below the Reserve Bank of India ’s forecasts. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Australia Senior Economist Catherine Birch explains why lower headline inflation figures in Australia aren’t telling the full story. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institution...
Sep 01, 2024•9 min
US stocks are strong on more signs of a soft landing. NZ business confidence surges as rates are cut. Australian capital investment plans remain strong, and India’s GDP figures later today may send the Reserve Bank of India a dovish signal. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung unpacks how changing global supply chains are driving capital outflows from China’s manufacturers. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.a...
Aug 29, 2024•10 min
US stocks are trading down ahead of of chipmaker Nvidia’s results later this morning; There’s support for an ECB September cut; Australia’s inflation in July was stronger than expected, while house building remains soft; And there’s ongoing weakness in New Zealand’s jobs market. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung explains why there’s been record high outflows of capital from China in recent quarters. Before accessing this podcast, please read th...
Aug 28, 2024•10 min
The US dollar weakened again overnight to near its low this year. Australia’s inflation figures today will be dominated by Government subsidies lowering electricity prices and there’s welcome news for the Bank of Japan in producer price inflation figures. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Agriculture Economist Susan Kilsby explains what’s behind the rise in dairy prices recently, leading to ANZ Research to boost its NZ farmgate price forecast. Before accessing this podcast, please read the...
Aug 27, 2024•9 min
Oil has jumped 2-and-a-half percent on renewed conflict in the Middle East. The US dollar strengthened overnight as traders continued to digest signals out of Jackson Hole. And New Zealand’s Government rushes to try and reduce energy prices. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India, Sanjay Mathur, explains why Vietnam is not the only big winner from the friendshoring trend to pull some parts of supply chains out of China. Before accessing this podcast,...
Aug 26, 2024•9 min
Jerome Powell says the time has come to cut rates. They may eventually 200 basis points. The Kiwi dollar is rising against the Aussie despite a smaller interest rate premium. Japan is set to keep hiking. Inflation in Singapore below forecasts. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Maddy Dunk looks at how an eventual fall in Australian interest rates might effect house prices differently in different cities. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institut...
Aug 25, 2024•10 min
US manufacturing contracts, keeping the Fed on course to cut next month, but Fed speakers see only gradual falls. Those comments drove Treasury yields up and stocks down this morning. PMIs in Australia and Japan have picked up. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman looks ahead to key speeches today by the heads of the US and Japan central banks. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Aug 22, 2024•8 min
US jobs growth is revised down, cementing Fed rate cut bets and sending the world’s reserve currency down further. Thailand and Indonesia hold rates, and Japan’s export data indicates some weakness in global demand. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton analyses how Australia is tracking for a ‘soft’ economic landing after such a rapid rise in interest rates. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/fi...
Aug 21, 2024•8 min
The US dollar continues to weaken as rate cut hopes solidify; RBA minutes show its dual mandate kept a rate hike in check; New Zealand house prices fell ahead of the RBNZ’s rate cut, and Indonesia could cut rates today, while Thailand looks set to hold. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton presents ANZ Research’s revised Australian economic forecasts and says why the RBA can hold until February. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer a...
Aug 20, 2024•10 min
Markets are looking ahead this week to Jackson Hole for firmer clues on rate cuts. Currencies are already on their way - the US dollar weakening against the Yen, and the Aussie rising; Iron Ore prices are slumping, and Gold is on the bounce. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh maps out the future for Asian currencies after the unwind of the yen carry trade. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-fiv...
Aug 19, 2024•10 min
Markets are turning to Jackson Hole later this week for signs from the world’s central bankers about the speed and size of expected rate cuts. Central banks make decisions in Thailand, Indonesia and South Korea. And there’s good news from New Zealand’s economy In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes talks about the weather, and in particular what a change from El Nino to La Nina means for markets. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer ...
Aug 18, 2024•9 min
US retail sales jump and give global stocks a boost. Australia’s jobs rise is tempered by rising participation. The Philippines’ central bank cuts. China’s domestic demand slumps, while Japan’s GDP gets a consumer shot in the arm. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ FX Analyst Kausani Basak reviews PMI data to reveal which Asian economies are riding an AI-Technology demand boost. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast...
Aug 15, 2024•9 min
The RBNZ kicks off its easing cycle with a 25 bps rate cut. Australian jobs figures today may show when the RBA might move. US CPI inflation in July met expectations. There’s another ‘will they - won’t they’ rate decision today, in the Philippines. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner analyses why the RBNZ felt it was able to cut rates a full year ahead of its previously published forecasts. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ...
Aug 14, 2024•10 min
Weaker-than-expected US producer prices support rate cut bets ahead of key CPI data tonight. Australian wage growth is moderating, but only slowly. And it’s a ‘will they/won’t they’ monetary policy review day in New Zealand. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner looks ahead to that ‘live’ Monetary Policy Review for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand later today. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/...
Aug 13, 2024•10 min
Global markets were stable overnight ahead of US price data later this week; Australian wages data today will be watched closely by the RBA, and India’s CPI dips below 4%, although perhaps only temporarily. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman says the Dollar-Yen exchange rate appears have have found a near-term floor after a wild couple of weeks. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podca...
Aug 12, 2024•10 min
Markets are bracing this week for fresh US inflation data on Wednesday night, Australia wages and jobs figures on Tuesday and Thursday, a the RBNZ’s decision on Wednesday. In China, more signs of weak retail demand are expected on Thursday. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Krystal Tan examines what a second Trump Presidency might mean for Asian exports. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Aug 11, 2024•10 min
US stocks rally on easing fears of a US recession. The Aussie dollar jumps after Governor Michele Bullock says the RBA won’t hesitate to hike and thought about hiking earlier this week. The Reserve Bank of India holds rates hawkishly. New Zealand inflation expectations drop. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim explains why India’s success in reaching a sustainable current account deficit is masking much needed under-investment. Before accessing this podcast, please read th...
Aug 08, 2024•10 min
Markets were calmer overnight, with Bank of Japan officials offering reassurance that hikes won’t happen amid instability. New Zealand’s Q2 job figures left no smoking gun for an August rate cut, and the Reserve Bank of India is set to hold rates today. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Senior Economist Miles Workman analyses how Australia’s relatively stronger jobs market is attracting Kiwis across the Tasman again. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ht...
Aug 07, 2024•10 min
Global markets have regained some ground, with the Nikkei up 10.2%, US stocks up 2%. Meanwhile, the RBA held hawkishly through the turmoil, New Zealand unemployment is set to jump, and Japanese wages are on the rise. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton digs into the hawkish tones and forecasts in the RBA’s statement on monetary policy yesterday. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-p...
Aug 06, 2024•9 min
The rout in global markets triggered by US recession fears and the unwinding of the yen carry trade ripped through markets overnight, although there are signs of it easing up this morning. In our bonus deep dive interview, we spoke to ANZ’s Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman after a day of turmoil in Asian markets to find out what on earth was going on. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Aug 05, 2024•10 min
US stocks sold off sharply on Friday night and US bond yields fell to one-year lows after weaker than expected Non Farm Payrolls data. All eyes are on the RBA tomorrow for any signs of a dovish pivot. South Korea’s inflation was hotter than expected. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ NZ Senior Economist Miles Workman unpacks a downgrade in ANZ Research’s forecast track for NZ house prices. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-...
Aug 04, 2024•9 min
US treasury yields drop sharply on more confidence the Fed can cut three times this year. The Bank of England cuts, but only just. China’s factory output contracts in July, and Australian exports to China fall. All eyes are now on US non-farm payrolls. In our bonus deep dive interview we return to our coverage of China’s weakening consumer confidence, with ANZ Agriculture Economist Susan Kilsby explaining why authorities’ attempts to revive consumer demand are struggling to get traction. Before ...
Aug 01, 2024•9 min
The Fed holds and leaves the door wide open to cut in September. The Bank of Japan hikes and says more tightening could be on the way. RBA rate hike bets are all but off, as Q2 CPI rises less than expected, sending the Aussie dollar tumbling. And oil jumps on new conflict in the Middle East. In our bonus deep dive interview ANZ Senior Economist Catherine Birch explains what the Reserve Bank of Australia will be looking for to gain confidence it can cut rates from February. Before accessing this ...
Jul 31, 2024•10 min
It’s a big day for global interest rates with the FOMC expected to guide on a September rate cut and speculation the Bank of Japan could hike. Anticipation is also building around Australia’s Q2 CPI, and whether it might force the RBA to raise rates. In our bonus deep dive interview ANZ Agriculture Economist Susan Kilsby analyses the impact weakening consumer confidence in China is having on New Zealand’s key primary exports. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://w...
Jul 30, 2024•10 min
US stocks rise and Treasury yields fall as weaker US manufacturing activity adds to signs the Fed can cut in September; the Aussie dollar continues its fall, but CPI data tomorrow could provide support, and Vietnam’s exports surge off the back of China’s supply chain diversification. In our bonus deep dive interview ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga examines what President Donald Trump version 2.0 might mean for global inflation, interest rates and trade. Before accessing this podcast, ...
Jul 29, 2024•8 min
US PCE data was in line with forecasts. The Fed is seen waiting until September before cutting, rather than this week. The Bank of Japan is expected to hike on Wednesday. The Bank of England is seen holding. NZ consumer confidence bounces. In our bonus deep dive interview ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes digs into the demand and supply issues hammering iron ore prices lower. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-...
Jul 28, 2024•10 min
US GDP growth beats expectations. Tonight’s US inflation data could take the Fed within touching distance of 2% inflation. The Nikkei falls the most in eight years. South Korea’s GDP contracts, making an early rate cut more possible. In our bonus deep dive interview ANZ Economist Bansi Madhavani outlines why a September rate cut by the Bank of England is looking more likely than an earlier move in August. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutio...
Jul 25, 2024•10 min
US stocks have fallen sharply on weak earnings from Tesla and tech stocks. The Bank of Canada cuts again. A surging Yen is pushing the US dollar down and the Aussie and Kiwi dollars are being caught in the downdraft as well. In our bonus deep dive interview ANZ’s Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung explains what needs to happen to revive China’s domestic demand as consumers refuse to spend more, despite looser monetary policy. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer...
Jul 24, 2024•10 min
