Markets took a breather overnight to refocus on US GDP and inflation data tomorrow night. Australian consumer confidence improves as tax cuts arrive. India delivers lower Budget deficit and Singaporean inflation is below forecasts. In our bonus deep dive interview ANZ’s Senior Economist Blair Chapman analyses how Australia’s jobs market slowdown could accelerate. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Jul 23, 2024•10 min
Kamala Harris’ backing to replace Joe Biden supports tech stocks, while a flight to safety sees the Aussie and Kiwi dollars both fall half a percent; European stocks rise on hopes of less trade friction under a Harris Presidency; And the People’s Bank of China surprises with an interest rate cut. In our bonus deep dive interview ANZ’s Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung extracts the meaning in a key phrase to come out last week’s Third Plenum communique, and what it means for China’s...
Jul 22, 2024•9 min
US President Joe Biden announced this morning he won’t seek a second term. That’s after US tech stocks fell sharply on Friday night on the Crowdstrike tech outages. Australasian and Asian markets will trade first after the news. In our bonus deep dive interview ANZ’s Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton explains how Australian households are saving a lot more than many think. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Jul 21, 2024•10 min
The ECB holds its official interest rates and markets see an 80% chance it will be able to cut again in September. US stocks edge lower with ongoing tech stock nerves. Australian unemployment rises a bit, which is seen reassuring the RBA . In our bonus deep dive interview ANZ Commodity Strategist Soni Kumari tracks the boom-bust cycle for lithium in recent years, due to volatility in demand for EV batteries. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institu...
Jul 18, 2024•10 min
The Nasdaq is down almost 3%, especially its chip stocks, after Donald Trump said Taiwan should pay for its own defence. New Zealand’s soft inflation figures support earlier rate cuts. ANZ Research now sees a cut in November. In our bonus deep dive interview ANZ Senior Asia Rates Strategist Jennifer Kusuma analyses the risks to economic growth in Asia over the second half of the year. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podc...
Jul 17, 2024•10 min
Stronger US retail sales do little to dent September rate cut hopes. Gold hit a fresh high overnight. New Zealand inflation is being watched for signs of weakness. Australian consumer confidence falls again. Bank Indonesia looks set to hold rates. In our bonus deep dive interview ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh looks ahead to a possible fourth set of Renminbi reforms as Chinese authorities seek to boost the effectiveness of monetary policy. Before accessing this podcast, please read the di...
Jul 16, 2024•10 min
US stocks and the dollar firmed in the first day of trading after the assassination attempt on US Presidential candidate Donald Trump . China’s GDP growth was below expectations, and there’s further downbeat data on New Zealand’s economy. In part 2 of our bonus deep dive interview on China’s Third Plenum, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung explores what the key meeting could mean for China’s private sector. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www...
Jul 15, 2024•10 min
Markets are focused on safe havens after the assassination attempt on former President Trump . China’s exports are set to soften as US demand wanes. India’s CPI was above expectations, and NZ’s manufacturing sector falls deeper into recession. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung explains why this week’s third plenum meeting of China’s key leaders is so important. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/ins...
Jul 14, 2024•9 min
US inflation was much softer than expected overnight, which shunted down Treasury yields and the US dollar. Rates were held in Korea, but with a dovish turn, and there’s more signs of a softening New Zealand economy for the RBNZ to think about. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk looks at how the RBA views fiscal easings in state budgets because of cost-of-living measures. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-i...
Jul 11, 2024•9 min
Ahead of US June CPI data tonight, market bets are firm for a September cut by the Fed; The New Zealand dollar tumbles as markets see the Reserve Bank pivot towards a first cut, and there are official rates decisions today in Korea and Malaysia. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner discusses the importance of next week’s Kiwi CPI after a dovish turn by the RBNZ yesterday. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/...
Jul 10, 2024•9 min
US markets stick with September rate cut bets after the Fed Chair delivers ‘something for everyone’ in Senate appearance; Australian consumers are more gloomy after headlines the RBA could hike, and New Zealand’s Reserve Bank is expected to hold rates later today. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman analyses where both the Aussie and Kiwi dollars are headed this year - and which looks set to come out on top. Before accessing this podcast, please read the dis...
Jul 09, 2024•10 min
Global markets are treading water this morning ahead of Congressional testimonies from Fed Chair Jay Powell and US CPI numbers. Meanwhile in Australia, housing lending dropped in May, dragged down by a sopping wet New South Wales. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk explains why Western Australia is performing so well in ANZ’s Stateometer report. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Jul 08, 2024•9 min
Global stocks begin the week at record highs after soft US jobs data boosted hopes the Fed will cut in September. European markets are on tenterhooks for French election results. And inflation in Thailand and the Philippines is weaker than expected. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur explains how exports are driving growth in Asia as consumption moderates. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.co...
Jul 07, 2024•10 min
European markets firm ahead of election results. Markets are quiet on Independence Day holiday ahead of key US non-farm payrolls jobs figures tonight. And strong iron ore exports can’t stop Australia’s trade surplus from narrowing. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman looks at the potential effect on markets and the Euro of the possible results in Sunday’s French election. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/instit...
Jul 04, 2024•9 min
Expectations the Fed will cut in September firm after softer US jobs and services data; Australia’s retail sales and building approvals are surprisingly strong; China’s services growth weakens, while price pressures fall in Japan. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman analyses how the pound might react under different British election result scenarios. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-p...
Jul 03, 2024•8 min
Fed Chair Jerome Powell supports rate cut bets by citing progress on inflation and jobs, although stronger jobs data tempers the market reaction. The RBA ’s board minutes show a hike is on the table, and New Zealand price pressures ease. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodity Analyst Daniel Hynes looks at how commodity prices are generally boosted during rate cutting cycles. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-fiv...
Jul 02, 2024•9 min
US Treasury yields jump on growing expectations Donald Trump will win the US Presidency and run looser fiscal policy. European stocks rise after a smaller-than-expected win by France’s right wing. The Yen hits a fresh 38-year low. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Catherine Birch explains how Australia’s inflation cycle compares to the rest of the world, and why services inflation is so sticky. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/...
Jul 01, 2024•9 min
US PCE inflation data on Friday has boosted bets the Fed can cut in September. Markets will focus on US jobs data this week. Today’s Tankan survey will give clues on whether the Bank of Japan can hike again in July. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Catherine Birch explains why ANZ has lifted its Q2 forecast for Australian inflation. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Jun 30, 2024•9 min
Soft US data has lifted bets for Fed rate cuts this year ahead of May’s PCE inflation print today. There’s good news on inflation pressures in New Zealand. The Philippines central bank holds rates, but looks to pull its easing cycle forward. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung explains why Chinese authorities are pushing for the RMB to become a global reserve currency. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.c...
Jun 27, 2024•9 min
There’s a headache for the RBA after Australia’s CPI indicator rose more than expected in May. And the Yen weakened overnight through 160 to the US dollar, to its lowest level since 1986. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung analyses recent ‘de-dollarisation.’ Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Jun 26, 2024•8 min
US consumer confidence dips, but the US dollar rises as a Fed Governor says she’s not ruling out rate hikes. Australia’s inflation rate is set to tick up May, while consumer confidence held steady despite talk of higher interest rates. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Hynes looks behind the headlines of the largest copper glut in China in four years. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five...
Jun 25, 2024•8 min
Expectations firm for a September rate cut by the Fed. The Yen holds steady after fresh jaw-boning. A strong Singapore dollar contains inflation, and import data for New Zealand shows some sectors are struggling. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Rates Strategist Jack Chambers looks at how the Reserve Bank of Australia’s tone has become more hawkish at the same time as other central banks have started to ease policy. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https:/...
Jun 24, 2024•8 min
Markets start the week off the back of concerns on Friday that the US Fed might delay rate cuts after June’s stronger PMI - all eyes are on PCE data this Friday; And the Yen starts the week on the back foot. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior China Strategist Zhoapeng Xing analyses the significant changes on the way for China’s monetary policy regime. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Jun 23, 2024•7 min
The Swiss National Bank surprises with a rate cut. The Bank of England holds as expected, and New Zealand exits recession…just. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ FX Analyst Felix Ryan explains how the outlook for monetary policy in Japan has evolved during the quarter. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Jun 20, 2024•9 min
UK CPI inflation hits 2%, but services inflation remains stubbornly high. All eyes are on the Bank of England tonight. Indonesia’s central bank is set to hold rates, while Bank of Japan board minutes show growing concern over the weak Yen. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin explains why ANZ has pared back its 2024 ECB rate cut expectations. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Jun 19, 2024•9 min
The RBA turns more hawkish, saying it considered a rate hike but not a cut when it met yesterday; Weak US retail sales give hope for two Fed rate cuts this year; And strong Euro services inflation sees ANZ reduce its call on ECB rate cuts in 2024. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Economist Henry Russell continues his analysis of sticky domestic inflation and how worried it might be making the Reserve Bank of New Zealand . Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer...
Jun 18, 2024•9 min
Markets were mixed overnight, with equities, US Treasury yields and the oil price all rising. The RBA is expected to hold today, but what it says about inflation is being closely watched. And there are glimmers of hope for China’s domestic demand. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Economist Henry Russell explains why it’s so important for central banks to get on top sticky non-tradable or domestic inflation. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www...
Jun 17, 2024•9 min
Global stocks and bonds begin the week on the front foot after more soft US economic data reinforced hopes for a Fed rate cut in Q3. Partial inflation figures in New Zealand are softer than expected. The Bank of Japan surprises by not hiking. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh has surveyed the 11 economies in Asia outside of China and Japan and found seven grew GDP more than expected in the March quarter. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaime...
Jun 16, 2024•10 min
Softer than expected US inflation data drags US yields down again. Australia’s unemployment rate drops, but falling hours worked indicate a softer labour market. Taiwan’s central bank holds rates, but the Bank of Japan could hike later today. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior China Strategist Zhaopeng Xing explains why additional stimulus should be expected sometime later this year, as China’s domestic demand remains weak. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at h...
Jun 13, 2024•8 min
The Fed has held US rates and reduced its ‘dot plot’ forecast to just one cut in 2024 from three. Earlier, a lower-than-expected US May CPI sent Treasury yields tumbling and stocks surging to record highs. Inflation in India and China was also softer than expected. In our bonus deep dive interview, NZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes says Asia’s heatwave is putting huge pressure on energy grids already dealing with greater electrification, boosting demand in particular for LNG. Before ...
Jun 12, 2024•8 min
