US stocks weaken ahead of Fed rate decision; European markets continue to be buffeted by Macron’s French election call; Australian businesses grow gloomier, but the RBA still has a headache; and China’s CPI later today is being watched for any signs of domestic demand. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton takes us through ANZ Research’s call change for when the RBA will begin rate cuts. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https:/...
Jun 11, 2024•9 min
European stocks fall after French President Emmanuel Macron’s surprise decision to call Parliamentary elections he is forecast to lose. We preview the Fed’s decision this week, and look out to US inflation data In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner talks about why she sees the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cutting in February next year, rather than May. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-...
Jun 10, 2024•10 min
The ECB cuts rates overnight as expected, but reluctantly. Australian housing lending jumps in April as rental property investors build up a head of steam, while building work slows in New Zealand. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes reviews the OPEC+ meeting earlier this week and its impact on the oil market. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Jun 06, 2024•9 min
Stronger US services activity is shrugged off as rate cut hopes increase off the back of a cut by Bank of Canada and expectations the ECB will also move. Australia’s economy hangs onto growth, boosted by stronger household consumption. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Catherine Birch highlights work Australia’s Fair Work Commission is undertaking on gender undervaluation. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-...
Jun 05, 2024•10 min
India’s election throws a curveball into the markets, with Narendra Modi’s BJP failing to secure a majority; US markets increase Fed rate cut bets after soft job openings data; And in Australia, weaker net export figures could be a drag on GDP data out today. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim outlines what India’s election result could mean for fiscal and monetary policy there following the election result. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at htt...
Jun 04, 2024•10 min
US Treasury yields and stocks fell overnight as weak manufacturing and construction data indicated monetary policy is reducing demand in the US; The Aussie and Kiwi are up as the US dollar fell. Oil fell 3.7% on supply news out of OPEC+ . India’s Nifty 50 stocks index rose 3.3% after exit polls indicated a third term for PM Narendra Modi. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ FX Analyst Kausani Basak looks at why imports across Asia have started to improve since bottoming out last year. Before a...
Jun 03, 2024•10 min
India’s markets are expected to celebrate after exit polls saw Narendra Modi winning a third term. India’s GDP was also above forecasts. China’s factory activity contracted in May. Australia’s Fair Work Commission is set to slow minimum wage inflation. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur explains how extreme temperatures in India, the Philippines and Indonesia are upending rice markets again. Before accessing this podcast, please read ...
Jun 02, 2024•10 min
Global markets are mixed ahead of US PCE data. US bond yields slide from highs, dragging the US dollar down. New Zealand’s new Government delivers tax cuts and more borrowing, which may worry the Reserve Bank . In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Pacific Economist Kishti Sen explains why he believes Fiji has a three-speed economy. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
May 30, 2024•10 min
Fed rate cut bets are pushed out ahead of US economic and price data. Australian inflation was stronger-than expected in April, while construction fell surprisingly in Q1. Vietnam’s CPI is on the rise, and it’s Budget Day in New Zealand. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior China Strategist Zhaopeng Xing explains why moves in recent days to loosen home buying rules in China’s largest cities will do little to prop up demand . Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at ht...
May 29, 2024•8 min
US consumer confidence rises while Australians grow gloomier. Rising rice prices are expected to feed into Vietnam inflation data. Aussies are drinking cheaper booze. We look at what that might tell the RBA . In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin explains how car insurance pricing in the US has been causing issues for headline CPI inflation, and what it could mean for the Fed. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/insti...
May 28, 2024•9 min
ECB rate cut bets were boosted after its French Governor suggested a July cut could follow after June. Chinese industrial profits rose in April, after March weakness. We also look at the weaker Yuan and the Philippine Peso in recent days. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman reveals what happened to the US dollar in her study of the eight Fed easing cycles since 1990. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institution...
May 27, 2024•10 min
Markets are oscillating in tune with their views on when the Fed can cut, and it’s still not clear. We look ahead to Australian inflation data on Wednesday and New Zealand’s Budget on Thursday. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes analyses what China’s recent property market support package could mean for steel demand and the iron ore price. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podc...
May 26, 2024•9 min
Global PMI surveys suggest the US economy is rollicking along in a way that might force the Fed to keep rates high for even longer. New Zealand retail sales bounce and there’s hope tax cuts in next week’s budget might give them more of a boost. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior International Economist Tom Kenny reviews how the Bank of Japan ’s commentary has shifted in recent months, and why that points to more rate hikes. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at h...
May 23, 2024•9 min
Stronger than expected inflation in the UK pushes out rate cut bets, as PM Sunak calls a snap election; New Zealand’s Reserve Bank turns hawkish and pushes out rate cuts; Indonesia holds rates; Singapore’s core inflation is expected to rise. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Hynes looks ahead to a key meeting of global oil producers, and what it could mean for supply and the oil price. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www...
May 22, 2024•9 min
Global markets are flat ahead of Fed minutes. The RBA board discussed a rate hike more than was thought. Aussie renters feel more confident after the Budget. There are rate decisions today in New Zealand and Indonesia . In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Hynes looks at why global oil demand has been dragged down recently. One reason is Americans are driving less. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/f...
May 21, 2024•9 min
US Fed officials see disinflation progress and indicate rate rises are unlikely. US dollar firms further vs the Yen. China property prices would need to fall 35% to trigger buyer interest because rental yields are still too low, says ANZ China Strategist Zhaopeng Xing. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Senior Economist Miles Workman looks at why New Zealand’s soggy economic outlook is unlikely to get much support from the RBNZ , which is expected to hold rates at 5.5% tomorrow. B...
May 20, 2024•10 min
China has announced a major rescue package to buy unsold apartments and remove restrictions for homebuyers. New Zealand’s economy is soggy, but shouldn’t expect help from a rate cut any time soon. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur analyses what labour costs across Southeast Asian economies say about their regional competitiveness and productivity. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/instit...
May 19, 2024•10 min
The Dow rises through 40,000. Fed speakers see monetary policy working. US jobless claims and factory output data reinforce hopes for a rate cut or cuts later this year. Australia’s labour market may be softening faster than the RBA is expecting. In our bonus deep dive interview, following on from our coverage of China’s politburo declaring they want to reduce unsold property inventories, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung say they need to be careful from a financial stability p...
May 16, 2024•10 min
US Treasury yields are down after April CPI was softer than expected, but the Fed may still want to wait. The Aussie and Kiwi dollars jump. Good news for the RBA as Australian wage growth peaks. Japan’s economy may have contracted in Q1. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman discusses ANZ’s call this week that the US dollar won’t weaken as much over the year as previously expected. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.co...
May 15, 2024•9 min
The US Fed Chair shrugs off stronger US producer prices ahead of CPI data tonight. Power rebates & tax cuts turn Australian budget surpluses into deficits, but also cut inflation. New Zealand’s property market continues to struggle. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin explains why monetary policies of the world’s major central banks are diverging. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-po...
May 14, 2024•9 min
Markets are holding tight ahead of US price data. Australian business condition fall is ok for the RBA . India’s food prices rise, but inflation close to forecast. There was good and bad news on New Zealand’s inflation front. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung says the Chinese Politburo’s recent shift on property policy shows authorities are facing up to the reality of high inventories and low demand. Before accessing this podcast, please read t...
May 13, 2024•10 min
Global stocks start the week near record highs, with all eyes on US inflation figures for confirmation the Fed can ease this year. China’s economy is showing early signs of recovery. New Zealand manufacturing is still contracting, but at a slower rate In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Australia Head of Economics Adam Boyton previews the Australian Federal Budget due at 7.30pm Canberra time on Tuesday. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutio...
May 12, 2024•10 min
The Bank of England holds and says it will cut rates within a month or two. Malaysia’s central bank is more upbeat about growth as it holds. China’s exports rebound, and in the Philippines, soft consumer spending drags on GDP growth. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Senior Economist Miles Workman looks at the uncertainties shrouding New Zealand’s housing market right now, and how developments in Auckland might affect the rest of the country. Before accessing this podcast, please...
May 09, 2024•10 min
The Boston Fed President says rates are likely to be held for longer. The Bank of Japan’s governor says big yen moves are undesirable. Taiwan’s exports are weaker than expected. The Bank of England is expected to hold rates tonight. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur recalibrates when Asian central banks might be able to cut, given changing expectations about when and how much the Fed cuts. Before accessing this podcast, please read t...
May 08, 2024•9 min
US rate cut optimism is growing with soft US labour market data. The RBA was less hawkish than expected, but won’t rule anything in or out. Australian consumers are really feeling the pinch. Inflation stays on target in Taiwan and the Philippines. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes says stronger-than-expected Chinese economic data is underpinning global commodity prices. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com...
May 07, 2024•9 min
US stocks rise as traders find comfort in Fed rate cut hopes; All eyes on how hawkish the RBA will turn today; Indonesia’s GDP is supported by election spending; and holiday travel data shows Chinese consumers may be coming out of their shells. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung analyses the outlook for the US dollar and Treasuries if Donald Trump wins the US Presidential election in November. Before accessing this podcast, please read the discl...
May 06, 2024•10 min
US jobs growth was weaker than expected, so US bonds and stocks rallied. US Treasury yields and the US dollar fell. The RBA is expected to hold hawkishly tomorrow. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung looks at what a Donald Trump re-election could mean for the US-China bilateral relationship. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
May 05, 2024•10 min
US bond yields fell after Fed Chair Jerome Powell appeared to rule out rate hikes. Japanese authorities may have intervened again to hold up the yen. South Korean and Indonesian inflation eases. Australia’s record imports suggest demand is holding up. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Agriculture Economist Susan Kilsby looks at how global economic developments, and the weather, are affecting demand for New Zealand’s key primary exports. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaim...
May 02, 2024•10 min
The US Federal Reserve has kept rates on hold and signaled a lack of progress towards its 2% inflation goal in recent months. New Zealand’s labour market weakens, but wage growth is still high. The copper price has been on a roll in 2024. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Arindam Chakraborty looks at how non-China Asia exports have been supported this year by strong US demand. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-fiv...
May 01, 2024•10 min
Stronger US wage data adds to fears rates will be on hold for longer. Core inflation progress in Europe supports a June cut by the ECB. China’s factory output rises. Weak Australian retail sales cause a rethink on the RBA’s rate track. In our bonus deep dive interview ANZ Economist Miles Workman looks closely at why consumers in New Zealand are so down in the dumps. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Apr 30, 2024•9 min
