The yen bounces hard after slumping through 160. Some think Japan’s authorities intervened, but there’s no confirmation. ANZ Research has changed its expectation for Fed rate cuts this year to two 25 basis point cuts from four. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton looks at how the RBA might react if Australia’s stage 3 tax cuts improve consumer confidence, which is now near 1990s-recession level lows. Before accessing this podcast, please read the discla...
Apr 29, 2024•9 min
The US dollar has spiked up over 158 yen. Traders are on high alert for intervention by Japanese authorities. Market expectations for rate cuts by the Fed and RBA keep being pushed out. New Zealand consumer confidence falls again In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton looks at why Australian consumer confidence is at 1990s-style recession-level lows and when it might pick up. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/...
Apr 28, 2024•9 min
US stocks fell and US Treasury yields rose after US growth and inflation data was worse than expected. Australia’s strong CPI could shift the RBA’s rate cut track out. Indonesia hikes rates to bolster its currency and South Korea’s GDP beats forecasts. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India, Sanjay Mathur looks at what central banks across Asia face in terms of monetary policy and their currencies if the US Fed delays rate cuts. Before accessing this p...
Apr 25, 2024•9 min
Global PMIs offer hope for an earlier US rate cut, an ECB cut in June, and an easing by the Bank of England in August. Australian inflation is set to keep easing. Currency volatility means a rate hike is not off the table in Indonesia. In part two of our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga offers some pragmatic suggestions for improving housing affordability in Australia. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutio...
Apr 23, 2024•10 min
Global stocks are on the rise, while gold and oil prices fell overnight on easing tensions in the Middle East. Chinese authorities move to boost Hong Kong’s stock market. The copper price is on a tear. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga takes a closer look at Australia’s worsening housing affordability, and why boosting housing supply may not be enough on its own. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutio...
Apr 22, 2024•9 min
Global markets start the week nervously eyeing the Middle East and key US data later this week. Asian currencies are jittery near record lows against a rampant USD. The RBA will hope for lower inflation data in Australia on Wednesday In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Commodity Strategist Soni Kumari explains why silver is finally jumping on gold’s fast-rising coat-tails. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Apr 21, 2024•10 min
US bond yields rise again on strong factory data. Australian unemployment rises, but firms still expect labour market tightness. Next week’s CPI could be crucial for the RBA . Japan’s inflation rate is expected to slow. but don’t expect the BoJ to budge. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim explains what is driving a surge in capital investment in India, and whether it can continue to drive GDP growth. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www...
Apr 18, 2024•9 min
Sticky UK inflation has dashed mid-year rate cut hopes. Strong domestic inflation in New Zealand is a concern for the central bank, but the ECB looks on track to start rate cuts in June. Oil is down 3% on global demand concerns. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman details four reasons why the US dollar has been so strong in recent weeks. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Apr 17, 2024•9 min
A surging US dollar triggers currency intervention across Asia. Fed Chair Powell signals high rates for even longer. China’s GDP outstrips expectations, but weak domestic demand means further stimulus is expected. NZ inflation data due. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Bansi Madhavani details what’s at stake for fiscal policy and the rupee in India’s general election, starting on Friday. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional...
Apr 16, 2024•10 min
US Treasury yields rose after stronger retail sales data showed consumers are still spending. Oil fell as Middle East conflict fears eased. Dollar/Yen slid through 154 for the first time since 1990. Aussie and Kiwi dollars are down against a stronger USD. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga highlights the quiet achievements of Japan as it emerges from a period of shrinkanomics and the lessons it can teach others with declining populations. Before accessin...
Apr 15, 2024•10 min
Markets are on tenterhooks to see how Israel reacts to Iran’s weekend attacks. The US dollar is strong, while the Aussie and Kiwi dollars begin the week down. Oil is up. In our bonus deep dive interview currencies, ANZ Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman is watching the yen and US dollar closely, and sees news from the Middle East limiting any bounces for the Aussie dollar. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Apr 14, 2024•10 min
The ECB held its policy rate overnight and remains on track to cut in June - before the Fed . China inflation data weaker than expected. Singapore’s GDP figures to include a Taylor Swift effect. Traders are on yen intervention watch. In our bonus deep dive interview on the oil outlook, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes says any jump towards US$100/bbl is likely to spark an OPEC supply response. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institut...
Apr 11, 2024•10 min
A strong US CPI has pushed back expectations for a fully-priced rate cut by the Fed from July to November. US Treasury yields are up 20 basis points and US stocks fell. The Aussie and Kiwi dollars have fallen more than 1% this morning. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India, Sanjay Mathur, has reviewed March PMI data for Asia’s main economies (ex-China), and says India’s exceptionalism showed through. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disc...
Apr 10, 2024•10 min
Treasury yields fall on hopes inflation is moderating. The Yen firms after reports the BoJ may raise its inflation outlook. Taiwan’s CPI is lower than forecast. Australian consumers see higher inflation. The RBNZ is expected to hold its cash rate. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Bansi Madhavani looks at what’s at stake in South Korea’s general election today for fiscal and monetary policy. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutio...
Apr 09, 2024•8 min
US Treasury yields hit fresh 2024 highs overnight as traders continued to reprice expectations for Fed rate cuts. The Philippines’ central bank holds but turns hawkish on inflation risks. Australia’s housing imbalance is expected to keep supporting prices. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes explains what’s driving gold’s stunning rally. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast...
Apr 08, 2024•10 min
Stronger than forecast US jobs growth pushed up Treasury yields on Friday night, but wage growth was more moderate, leaving the Fed still on track for a rate cut in July. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Pacific Economist Kishti Sen says Fiji needs to build four-and-a-half thousand new hotel rooms over the next decade. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Apr 07, 2024•9 min
All eyes are on US non-farm payrolls tonight. Australian households spent plenty going to Taylor Swift concerts; Building approvals weaken on both sides of the Tasman, and Kiwi house values track sideways. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Commodities Strategist Soni Kumari looks at why you paid so much more for your Easter eggs this year - a soaring cocoa price. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Apr 04, 2024•10 min
US jobs growth beat expectations overnight, but was offset by weaker services sector growth. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is in ‘wait and see’ mode on rate cuts this year. Gold is over US$2,300/oz this morning. Australian consumers expect higher inflation In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Krystal Tan looks at the inflation and interest rate outlooks across Asia for the rest of 2024. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-fi...
Apr 03, 2024•10 min
Global stock markets weakened overnight on further evidence that interest rates might stay higher for longer. Oil hit its highest price since October last year on fears around global supply, and Australian house prices continue their march upward. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin , says the US Federal Reserve and the ECB won’t want real interest rates to rise as inflation falls. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.co...
Apr 02, 2024•9 min
Treasury yields are jumping as strong US manufacturing data increases doubt about a rate cut by the Fed in June. That broke a surge in the Gold price, which had earlier hit a new high overnight. China’s manufacturing activity is also on the rise. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin , says this quarter’s data is where the rubber will meet the road for whether central banks can cut rates this year. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at htt...
Apr 01, 2024•10 min
Markets are on yen intervention alert. Australian inflation data was softer than expected. China’s industrial profits beat expectations. And New Zealand’s Government is set to borrow more as its economy slows. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Pacific Economist Kishti Sen explains why Papua New Guinea’s depreciating currency is not driving structural change. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Mar 27, 2024•10 min
Markets are mixed ahead of key US inflation data and Easter holidays for many. US consumers feel more confident. Australian renters are much less confident than home owners. New Zealand budget policy detail is due later today. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Data Scientist Somayeh Shiri reveals her findings from an analysis of herding behaviour among foreign exchange forecasters. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-pod...
Mar 26, 2024•8 min
Markets are unsettled this morning, with oil and gold up solidly on geo-political concerns in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. There’s more Fed -speak and ECB -speak about when rates might be cut, and by how much. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India, Sanjay Mathur sorts through emerging Asia’s Q4 GDP data to find the winners and themes, especially with the boom in advanced chip manufacturing. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclai...
Mar 25, 2024•10 min
The US$ starts the week strong vs the A$, NZ$ and yen after a dovish BoJ hike and markets seeing fewer Fed rate cuts this year. Market attention is on Australian inflation data on Wednesday for signals on whether the RBA can cut in November. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes visits China and finds surprisingly resilient demand for iron ore. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-po...
Mar 24, 2024•10 min
Taiwan’s central bank hikes unexpectedly, while the Swiss National Bank surprises with the first rate cut of the majors. The Bank of England holds. Strong Australian jobs growth hits hopes for an early rate cut from the RBA. New Zealand is in recession. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung surveys the seven key ‘ D ’ risks facing China in the year of the D ragon, starting with D eflation. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer a...
Mar 21, 2024•10 min
The Fed has just held its Fed Funds Rate as expected, but has raised dot plot track by around 25 basis points in 2025. British inflation slowed in February, but the Bank of England is still expected to hold; The BoJ is watching a weak yen closely, and New Zealand GDP today could show a technical recession. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Blair Chapman investigates a new trend of Australian job seekers holding off starting new jobs in January, and why that could affect toda...
Mar 20, 2024•9 min
The Bank of Japan has scrapped negative interest rates, hiking for the first time in 17 years. The Yen fell. US Treasury yields also fell ahead of the Fed’s decision tonight. The RBA held, but turned slightly dovish, which pushed the Aussie dollar down. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Commodities Strategist Soni Kumari looks at how record US oil output changes the outlook for oil prices this year. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutiona...
Mar 19, 2024•10 min
US Treasury yields and the dollar rose overnight as traders pared back expectations of the Fed ’s rate cuts. Japan’s Nikkei closed up over 2.5% on expectations of a dovish Bank of Japan hike today, and the RBA is set to hold, but maintain a tightening bias In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Miles Workman says New Zealand is at risk of a credit rating downgrade because of a high current account deficit. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.a...
Mar 18, 2024•10 min
The Bank of Japan, the Reserve Bank of Australia, the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are all scheduled to make rates decisions this week. The BoJ may even hike. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ strategist Soni Kumari analyses how China’s shift to renewable power is shifting demand for commodities. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Mar 17, 2024•10 min
US producer price inflation data was hotter than expected. US bond yields are up, as is the US dollar. US stocks are down. House prices in New Zealand are flat, although net migration to NZ set new record highs. Iron ore could fall under US$100/tonne. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung wraps up his analysis of China’s National People’s Congress and explains why the focus is shifting away from the annual growth target to longer-term structural re...
Mar 14, 2024•10 min
