Oil prices surge after Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries. US stocks dip ahead of key retail sales data. The Bank of Japan is set to hike to 0.0% as wages surge. The ECB is seen cutting in June. Inflation in New Zealand may beat the RBNZ ’s forecast. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung explains how a two-tiered property system is emerging in China as authorities promote affordable housing over the private market, which could take pressure of...
Mar 13, 2024•10 min
US core inflation was stronger than expected in February. Bond yields rose, but stock markets shrugged it off. India’s CPI was held up by food prices. Australian businesses see price rises, while consumers feel better. New Zealand retail spending drops. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung explains how China’s property supply is running well ahead of demand, with three-and-a-half years worth of unsold residential property piling up as demand weake...
Mar 12, 2024•9 min
Markets are in a holding pattern as traders wait to see how sticky US inflation was in February. Japan’s recession was revised away. The Bank of Japan is expected to end negative rates in next Monday or in April. India’s inflation rate is expected to be steady. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim explains how the Reserve Bank of India may have over-delivered on its inflation target, and how it might be loosening monetary conditions through the repo markets. Before accessin...
Mar 11, 2024•9 min
US non-farm payrolls were mixed, allowing markets to keep betting the Fed will start cutting in June. The ECB may cut before the Fed. The yen is rising on talk the Bank of Japan may finally hike. RBA watchers are focused on business confidence this week. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Sanjay Mathur looks at how ASEAN economies can overcome a fading demographic dividend by investing in ICT infrastructure and human capital to keep GDP growing faster than 5%. Before accessing this ...
Mar 10, 2024•10 min
US stocks and gold surge to fresh record highs. The ECB is set to cut rates in June. China’s exports beat expectations and all eyes are on US non-farm payrolls tonight for 200,000 jobs growth. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Maddy Dunk looks at what’s driving a divergence in the economic and budget performances of Australia’s states and territories. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Mar 07, 2024•10 min
Jerome Powell say the Fed can cut rates this year, sending stocks up and Treasury yields down. Australian growth may be bottoming out. Gold rose over US$2,150/oz to a new record highs overnight. All eyes are on the ECB rates decision tonight. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior International Economist Tom Kenny reviews the most recent fiscal projections for the US Government and explains how political polarisation is affecting the US’s credit rating. Before accessing this podcast, pleas...
Mar 06, 2024•9 min
China is targeting 5% GDP growth again, but debate is intense on how it’ll get there. Gold and bitcoin hit record highs. Australian exports are helping GDP growth. South Korea’s factories are humming. Prices in the Philippines rose more than forecast. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Krystal Tan explains how Asian central banks are bracing for the Fed ’s first rate cut. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podc...
Mar 05, 2024•10 min
Global stock and bond markets are mostly steady ahead of Fed testimony and non-farm payrolls data later this week. Gold lurched up to near record highs of over US$2,100/oz. All eyes in China are on the National People’s Congress for a new GDP target. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior China Strategist Zhaopeng Xing highlights the role climate policy will play in this week’s National People’s Congress. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/inst...
Mar 04, 2024•10 min
Interest rate markets are poised for interest rate decisions in Europe and Canada this week. US stocks hit fresh record highs, as did gold after more falls in US bond yields. China’s National People’s Congress meets In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Sustainable Finance Katharine Tapley talks about green bond issuance in 2024 in the wake of last year’s COP. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Mar 03, 2024•10 min
US inflation data met forecasts and markets still see the Fed cutting later this year. India’s GDP growth data overnight was much stronger than expected, but there’s a statistical quirk. Australian business investment intentions are rising. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes explains why demand for copper will stay strong, even as China’s demand fades. It’s all about India.
Feb 29, 2024•10 min
The Kiwi dollar falls 1.3% after the RBNZ pivots away from rate hike talk. The Aussie dollar is down 0.75% after softer-than-expected inflation data. The S&P 500 is flat ahead of key US inflation data tonight. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Commodities Strategist Soni Kumari explains why central banks are buying more gold, and why it will continue to push the precious metal’s price towards US$2,200/oz by year-end. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://ww...
Feb 28, 2024•10 min
Global markets are wary as another Fed President sees “no rush” to cut rates. Japan’s inflation data is surprisingly warm. AI chip demand drives surprise rise in Taiwan exports. Australia’s annual inflation rate is set to rise, and it’s a ‘live’ decision day for the RBNZ’s Official Cash Rate. In part two of our bonus deep dive interview on Australia’s housing market, ANZ Senior Economist Adelaide Timbrell looks at the strength of household balance sheets. Before accessing this podcast, please re...
Feb 27, 2024•10 min
Global stocks are treading water as traders turn their attention to critical US inflation data later this week. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Adelaide Timbrell takes a closer look at the housing supply and demand drivers behind slower price growth expected in 2024. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Feb 26, 2024•10 min
Global stocks are paused on their global highs. Markets are turning their focus to a potential hike in the RBNZ’s cash rate and Australian inflation figures on Wednesday. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Pacific Economist Kishti Sen finds a lack of funding for infrastructure investment is holding back the Pacific’s economies. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Feb 25, 2024•10 min
Global stocks surging to record highs after Nvidia’s very strong results. US yields and US$ rise after FOMC minutes and speakers are cautious about an early rate cut. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Arindam Chakraborty reviews strong growth of foreign direct investment into Vietnam, particularly from Chinese firms setting up manufacturing there. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Feb 22, 2024•9 min
Australian wages rose faster than prices for the first time in three years. Chinese stocks jump after new selling bans were imposed. A Fed President makes hawkish comments. Indonesia holds its main policy rate. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga looks at opportunities in 2024 from politics, Asia and climate trends — it’s not all just about interest rates. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-...
Feb 21, 2024•10 min
China cut a key interest rate to support a sagging property market, although markets reacted mildly as traders await comments from three Fed speakers and FOMC minutes; RBA minutes show focus on sticky services inflation ahead of key wage data today; Green shoots in NZ discretionary spending could get RBNZ attention. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Commodity Strategist Soni Kumari looks at a looming supply shortage for platinum, just as car makers and the hydrogen economy start using more o...
Feb 20, 2024•10 min
China stocks underwhelmed as markets opened after the Lunar New Year. The US dollar is expected to be strong through the first quarter. ANZ Research looks at a scenario for a 7% OCR in New Zealand. Thailand’s economy grew less than expected. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes explains why oil prices haven’t spiked much, despite widening conflicts in the Middle East. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/in...
Feb 19, 2024•10 min
China’s consumers travelled and spent more during the just-completed Lunar New Year holidays than in 2019. The RBA will watch this week’s Australian wages figures like a hawk. The RBNZ says the last mile of inflation reduction will be hard. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin explains why there’s a growth and interest rate divide opening up between the United States and the rest of the world. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https...
Feb 18, 2024•8 min
Markets shrugged off weaker Australian jobs figures. UK and Japan GDP fell. US retail sales were weak. NZ migration was at record highs in 2023, which the RBNZ Governor is watching as an inflationary factor. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Asia Rates Strategist Jennifer Kusuma reviews the decisive win by Prabowo Subianto and Gibran Rakabuming in Indonesia’s Presidential elections, which has buoyed financial markets. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https:...
Feb 15, 2024•10 min
US markets bounced overnight after traders took stock of stronger-than-expected inflation, and as a Fed President said higher monthly inflation was still consistent with the Fed’s 2% target. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Blair Chapman explains why full time employment growth in Australia might be set to taper off, and what that could mean for the RBA . Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Feb 14, 2024•10 min
US prices grew faster than expected in January, reducing hopes for a March rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. The strong reading sent stock markets down, while US bond yields and the US dollar surged. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Economist Arindam Chakraborty looks at how a US ‘friendshoring’ pivot away from China is pushing up US costs and prices. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Feb 13, 2024•10 min
The S&P 500 has pushed even further above 5,000 ahead of US inflation data tonight. India’s inflation rate decelerated in line with expectations in January as food price rises slowed. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Rates Strategist Jennifer Kusuma explains what’s at stake in Indonesia’s elections starting tomorrow. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Feb 12, 2024•10 min
The S&P 500 starts the week at a fresh record high of just over 5,000 and ANZ Research has changed its call for the RBNZ’s OCR to two more hikes to 6%. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner explains the call change and how the RBNZ has set precedents before. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Feb 11, 2024•10 min
Faster-than-forecast deflation in China is raising expectations of more stimulus. The Reserve Bank of India held overnight, but more hawkishly than expected. The chances of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand hiking in three weeks is rising. In our bonus deep dive interview around the Lunar New Year, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung looks at China’s energy transformation in the ‘fire era’ out to 2043, and what that means for the rest of the world. Before accessing this podcast, pl...
Feb 08, 2024•10 min
The S&P 500 rose more than 0.5% to record highs near 5,000 after strong US corporate earnings and rate cut comments from the Fed’s Neel Kashkari . In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung has looked at what typically happens to birth rates in the year of the dragon, and why this Lunar New Year may be different. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Feb 07, 2024•9 min
The Aussie and Kiwi dollars are opening a bit stronger after the RBA’ s hold decision yesterday was a touch more hawkish than some expected. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ New Zealand Economist Andre Castaing says the RBNZ ’s proposed loosening of loan to value ratio restrictions is expected to boost demand for housing later in 2024. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Feb 06, 2024•9 min
All eyes are on the RBA’ s first cash rate decision of 2024 today, which is also its first with a new two-day board meeting that releases new forecasts and has a news conference all at once. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin explains why US GDP and services inflation remains so resilient that the Fed is having to wait until the middle of 2024 to cut the Fed Funds rate. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institu...
Feb 05, 2024•10 min
Much stronger than expected US jobs growth data on Friday night sent US bond yields sharply higher over the weekend. In our bonus deep dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh looks at a slump in the Indonesia Rupiah ahead of its presidential election next week. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Feb 04, 2024•10 min
Global bond and stock markets are rallying this morning, despite attempts yesterday by Fed chair Jerome Powell to downplay chances of a rate cut in March. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim details a key reason for India’s economic outperformance — Government investment at 20 year highs in its budget overnight . Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Feb 01, 2024•10 min
