Global bond yields fell this morning ahead of the Fed’s keenly awaited interest rate decision due as we publish at 6am Sydney/Melbourne time. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Senior Commodities strategist Daniel Hynes takes a closer look at momentous decision to pause building LNG export terminals in the United States. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Jan 31, 2024•10 min
Global markets are on tenterhooks ahead of the Fed’s decision early tomorrow morning, although market expectations about rate cuts starting in March eased back a bit more. In our bonus deep-dive interview, we hear from ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim India’s pre-election Budget due on Thursday night. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Jan 30, 2024•10 min
India’s Finance Ministry says its economy could grow around 7% in coming years, with the country’s stock exchange rising 1.6% yesterday. In our bonus deep-dive interview, we hear from ANZ Economist Bansi Madhavani about why regular exports from Asia are expected to be slower than electronics exports. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Jan 29, 2024•10 min
Oil prices rose sharply over the weekend after more drama in the Red Sea and on signs of strong demand for oil from the US economy. In part two of our bonus deep-dive interview on the euro’s 25th anniversary, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin looks at whether it can ever supplant the US dollar as THE global reserve currency. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Jan 28, 2024•8 min
China loosened lending rules overnight by the most in two years, sparking a rally in stocks there. Flash PMIs reinforced hopes for soft landings and rate cuts. In our bonus deep-dive interview on the eve of tonight’s ECB decision, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin, reflects on the euro’s 25th anniversary. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Jan 24, 2024•10 min
China stock market has rebounded on a report of a US$278 billion plan to support stock values. In Australia, the Federal Government is reported to be about to shift the mix of ‘Stage 3’ tax cuts towards lower to middle income earners. In part two of our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Greater China, Raymond Yeung, looks at the deflationary implications of growing numbers of unemployed migrant workers in China’s cities. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaime...
Jan 23, 2024•10 min
US stocks rose again overnight to set fresh record highs on bolstered hopes for a soft economic landing, while China’s stocks fell 2.4% to near a two-decade low as investors worry about deflation and capital outflows. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Greater China, Raymond Yeung, takes a closer look at the growing numbers of unemployed migrant workers in China’s cities. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-...
Jan 22, 2024•10 min
US stocks surged over the weekend to record highs, and markets are looking out this week for three crucial central bank decisions. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Australia Senior Economist Adelaide Timbrill explains why big shopping centres with multiplex cinemas are doing much better than shops in and around CBDs. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Jan 21, 2024•10 min
Global markets bedded in a 20 basis point rise in US 2 year Treasury yields overnight after more hawkish signals from the Fed, which kept the US dollar solid against the Aussie and Kiwi dollars. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner explains why the RBNZ is now likely to cut first in August. That’s later than market expectations for a May cut, but earlier than her previous view of the first cut being in February next year. Before accessing this podcas...
Jan 18, 2024•10 min
Global bonds and stocks sold off again this morning after the ECB pushed back against market views of an early rate cut and US retail sales were stronger than expected. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur finds out what’s behind a surprisingly strong recovery in Asia’s jobs markets after covid . Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Jan 17, 2024•10 min
Global bond markets sold off this morning after Fed official Christopher Waller cautioned against expectations of early and fast cuts in US interest rates. In our bonus deep-dive interview on Australia’s commercial property investment pipeline, ANZ New Zealand Economist Andre Castaing went deep into last year’s GDP figures and found the worst per-capita recession in 15 years. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Jan 16, 2024•10 min
The People’s Bank of China left a key interest rate on hold, surprising markets expecting a cut after more signs China’s economy is deflating. In part two of our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Australia Senior Economist Adelaide Timbrell explains why demand for new offices is much stronger than expected, even with more people working from home. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Jan 15, 2024•9 min
Oil prices surged through US$80/barrel over the weekend after US and UK air strikes against Houthi facilities in Yemen raised fears a wider war in the Middle East could choke off major shipping routes through the Red Sea and Persian Gulf. In part one of our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Australia Senior Economist Adelaide Timbrell explains why demand for new office construction is much stronger than expected, even with more people working from home. Before accessing this podcast, please read th...
Jan 14, 2024•10 min
In our special last episode for 2023, I talked with ANZ Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga about the themes for 2023 and 2024 in global markets and economies. He explains why 2023 was the year of the soft landing, how China and Japan are book-ending the global rates cycle, and why fiscal policy will matter in 2024 edition, we pick out the five big themes for 2024. Have a safe and prosperous Christmas and New Year. We return on Monday, January 15. Before accessing this podcast, please read th...
Dec 19, 2023•10 min
In our special 101st episode edition, we pick out the five big themes for 2024. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Dec 18, 2023•8 min
In our special 100th episode edition, we pick out the five big themes for 2023. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Dec 17, 2023•9 min
Market interest rates are sharply lower this morning and stocks are rallying after the Fed pivoted to projecting interest rate cuts next year. In part two of our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh explains how Vietnam is benefiting from friendshoring. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Dec 14, 2023•10 min
Global markets are in animated suspension this morning ahead of the Fed’s decision at 6am Sydney/Melbourne time. Australia’s budget is healthier after solid income tax and mining royalty growth. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh explains how Vietnam’s economy can keep growing, even after its demographic dividend has ended. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Dec 13, 2023•9 min
US inflation data met forecasts overnight. Now the focus shifts to how hard the Fed will push back tomorrow morning at market expectations of early and large rate cuts next year. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Pacific Economist Kishti Sen explains why Papua New Guinea’s economy is set to double inside the next five to eight years. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Dec 12, 2023•10 min
Markets are on tenterhooks ahead of US CPI data tonight and the FOMC decision on Thursday morning, although the yen is falling as expectations of a Bank of Japan next week evaporate. In part two of our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Economist Adelaide Timbrell explains why there’s such strong demand for Australia’s houses from rental property investors. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Dec 11, 2023•10 min
America’s economy is still generating solid jobs growth while on track for a soft landing, but China’s has slowed so much it’s producing deflation. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Dec 10, 2023•10 min
Comments from Japanese officials suggesting a rate hike jolted the yen and Japanese bond yields sharply higher overnight. Global markets are now focused on Non Farm Payrolls data tonight for signs of a soft US landing. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin explains why the Fed’s next rate cutting cycle will be so different. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Dec 07, 2023•10 min
Soft Australian GDP figures have increased the chances that 4.35% will stay as the peak for the RBA’s cash rate. Oil prices slumped below US470/bbl overnight In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh examines the outlook for India’s rupee and the Singaporean dollar next year as the Fed starts cutting and the US dollar weakens. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Dec 06, 2023•10 min
More US soft landing signs dragged US Treasury yields lower overnight, but the Aussie and Kiwi dollars are weaker after a credit rating warning for China and an RBA hold some in the markets saw as less hawkish than expected. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh explains why he sees Fed rate cuts in 2024 helping Asia’s currencies. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Dec 05, 2023•10 min
The RBA is expected to hold at 4.35% in its last cash rate decision of the year this afternoon, albeit with a hawkish tone and after considering a hike. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes explains why he’s raised his iron ore price forecasts to over US$100/tonne, despite weak demand for steel from China’s apartment developers. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Dec 04, 2023•10 min
The Aussie and Kiwi dollars are opening at four-month highs against the US dollar and the gold price is at a record-high US$2,091/oz after US Treasury yields fell again on a growing conviction the Fed has engineered a soft US landing. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Australia Senior Economist Adelaide Timbrell details the pressures in Australia’s A$100 billion infrastructure investment pipeline. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/...
Dec 03, 2023•10 min
The Fed’s favourite measure of US inflation landed softly in October, leaving it on track to start cutting rates from the middle of next year. But inflation is weakening much faster in Europe, meaning rate cuts could start there from Easter. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin examines growing market confidence about a soft US economic landing. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast...
Nov 30, 2023•9 min
Australia’s inflation rate was much weaker than expected in October, but the RBA is expected to stay on a hawkish hold. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has also taken a hawkish stance, wrong-footing markets hoping for early rate cuts. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin examines growing market confidence about a soft US economic landing. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Nov 29, 2023•10 min
The Aussie and Kiwi dollars have surged overnight to four-month highs against a weakening US dollar, thanks to comments from a normally hawkish Fed official suggesting US rate cuts are more likely than hikes anytime soon. In part two of our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Australia Economist Blair Chapman maps out the sweet spot for his new FTE-pop indicator of Australian labour market tightness. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-i...
Nov 28, 2023•9 min
China’s industrial profit growth has slowed sharply, increasing expectations for more stimulus. In part one of our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Australia Economist Blair Chapman has come up with a better measure of how tight the labour market is: FTE-pop. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Nov 27, 2023•9 min
