New Zealand finally has a new centre-right coalition Government to replace the outgoing Labour administration. It plans tax cuts, spending cuts and a tweak to the Reserve Bank’s targets. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga maps out the week ahead in global markets and economics, including whether investors are too optimistic about a soft landing. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-...
Nov 26, 2023•9 min
New RBA Governor Michele Bullock is talking hawkishly about demand-driven inflation, which is set to keep Australian interest rates high, and possibly higher, for longer. In part two of our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin details why massive US public investment spending is holding global interest rates up for longer. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Nov 23, 2023•10 min
China’s renminbi has strengthened to a four-month high on hopes for calmer US vs China relations and lower US market interest rates. In part one of our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin explains the importance of the US pivot to massive infrastructure spending. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Nov 22, 2023•10 min
New stimulus moves for China’s property developers are bolstering the commodity currencies, including the Aussie and Kiwi dollars this morning. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Australia economist Maddy Dunk digs through Australian state GDP figures to find the winners and losers. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Nov 21, 2023•9 min
Central banks are now grappling with lower market interest rates that have undone some of the heavy lifting they were relying on previously higher rates to fight inflation. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh unpacks why there has been an improvement in exports from Asia ex China. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Nov 20, 2023•10 min
Oil prices jumped 4% over the weekend on talk of fresh supply cuts. ANZ now sees the RBNZ holding the OCR in late February, vs a hike previously. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Australia Senior Economist Adelaide Timbrell explains why Australia’s major projects pipeline is set to double to over $100 billion, and examines the pressures that will create. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Nov 19, 2023•10 min
Oil prices fell sharply on signs of slowing US demand, while bond yields fell after weak US manufacturing data. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Asia Economist Krystal Tan dissects the effects of high US interest rates and diverging commodity prices on the balances of payments for South Asia and Southeast Asia. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Nov 16, 2023•10 min
Global markets were volatile again overnight. Slightly stronger than expected US retail sales unleashed a bounce in US Treasury yields, but US stocks and the ‘risk’ currencies, the Aussie and Kiwi dollars, held their gains. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Senior Strategist in China ZhaoPeng Xing details the rise in the renminbi’s share of global currency and trade markets. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Nov 15, 2023•10 min
Global stocks surged 2% overnight after flat US inflation data bolstered hopes the US Federal Reserve can end its rate hike cycle. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India Sanjay Mathur shows how changes inside India’s banking system are likely to lift India’s potential GDP growth rate. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Nov 14, 2023•10 min
Markets are becalmed ahead of key US inflation data due tonight, which is expected to allow the Fed to hold its key policy rate again. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin dissects the inflationary pressures in the all-important US labour market. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Nov 13, 2023•10 min
The RBA issued a monetary policy statement with a hawkish tinge on Friday, meaning a hike is more likely than a cut any time soon, says ANZ economists. In part two of our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Economics for Australia Adam Boyton explains why the NAIRU (Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment) is still falling, despite Covid’s supply shocks. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Nov 12, 2023•10 min
The People’s Bank of China is expected to ease a key bank lending rule in the coming months after China reported falling back into deflation last month. In part one of our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Economics for Australia Adam Boyton explains what the NAIRU is and why it’s important for interest rates. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Nov 09, 2023•10 min
Oil prices slumped again overnight to three month lows as concerns about weakening demand from slowing US, European and Chinese economies. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin explains why Europe is headed for recession and the ECB may cut next year before the Fed. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Nov 08, 2023•10 min
The RBA hiked as expected yesterday, but the Aussie dollar fell overnight. Some in the market saw the RBA’s comments about future hikes as dovish. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes, explains why central bank buying of gold has nearly doubled. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Nov 07, 2023•9 min
The RBA is expected to hike one more time later today, which is helping the Aussie dollar nudge up towards 65 USc in early trade. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India, Sanjay Mathur, looks at why Indian equities are undervalued. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Nov 06, 2023•10 min
Weaker-than-expected US jobs growth data fueled an extension of rallies in global bonds and stocks. Risk currencies rose strongly. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga looks in the week ahead to the RBA’s rates decision and key China data. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Nov 05, 2023•8 min
US 10-year down to 4.62% overnight after Fed Chair Powell makes comments seen as suggesting extended rates pause; BoE holds too; South Korean inflation firm; Raymond Yeung's tribute to Li Keqiang. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Nov 02, 2023•8 min
US stocks and bonds strengthened shortly after the US Federal Reserve held its key policy rate as expected and on hopes the US economy is slowing in line with Fed expectations. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s China Senior Strategist Zhaopeng Xing explains why this week’s National Financial Work Conference in China is much more important than it sounds. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Nov 01, 2023•10 min
The yen slumped to 151.55 overnight after a Bank of Japan tweak to monetary policy yesterday was seen as too timid and not allowing yields to rise quickly enough. In part two of our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh explains how strong US GDP growth is helping Asia’s economies. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Oct 31, 2023•8 min
The yen is rallying in early Asian trade after a Nikkei report the Bank of Japan will consider allowing Japanese Government Bond yields to rise over 1.0%. In part one of our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh explains how Asia’s economies are doing much better than the global headlines might suggest. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Oct 30, 2023•10 min
Israeli troops advanced into northern Gaza over the weekend, raising fears of a wider conflict in the Middle East. Gold and oil prices rose over key levels. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Economist Andre Castaing explains how higher term premia for US interest rates are flowing into New Zealand’s economy. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Oct 29, 2023•8 min
US GDP grew 4.9% in the Q3, which beat expectations, but core inflation measures were subdued, encouraging bond investors to push yields lower. US stocks fell overnight after poorly-received results from Meta and UPS. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin explains why US Government stimulus is getting more traction this time around. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Oct 26, 2023•10 min
Australian inflation was faster than expected in the September quarter, which has prompted ANZ’s economists to forecast a rate hike on Melbourne Cup day. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Senior International Economist Tom Kenny explains what the term premium is, how it’s changed and why it matters. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Oct 25, 2023•10 min
Oil prices fell a further 2% overnight to well under US$90/bbl after European PMI surveys showed a deeper contraction in activity and the IEA forecast oil demand falling by 2030 for the first time. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin explains why the ECB is likely to hold on Thursday night for the first time in 11 meetings. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Oct 24, 2023•9 min
US Treasuries were volatile again overnight. The 10-year hit 5% and then slid in late New York trade, which dragged on the US dollar and boosted US stocks. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of FX Research Mahjabeen Zaman looks at which currencies are winning and losing in the hunt for safe havens. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Oct 23, 2023•8 min
Global stocks are starting the week down again thanks to high bond yields and plenty of nerves about geo-politics. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ NZ Economist Andre Castaing unpacks why New Zealand has a trade deficit of 3.5% of GDP. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Oct 22, 2023•10 min
The US 10-year Treasury bond yield nudged 5% this morning after Jerome Powell reaffirmed the Fed was finding higher bond yields useful in fighting inflation. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Senior Asia Strategist Zhaopeng Xing points to the ‘lipstick effect’ that held back retail sales during China’s Golden Week. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Oct 19, 2023•9 min
US Treasury bonds sold off again overnight, pushing the 10-year yield to 4.91%, its highest level since 2007. Oil rose 2% on a drop in US inventories. Chinese GDP was stronger than expected. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin explains why Treasury yields are rising, even though the Fed appears to have paused rate hikes. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Oct 18, 2023•9 min
The bond market selloff resumed in earnest overnight after better than expected US retail sales figures In part two of our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung looks at how China might fix the debt problems at its Local Government Financing Vehicles ( LGFVs ). Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Oct 17, 2023•9 min
Investor concerns about US Government plans for big issues of new Treasury bonds to fund ongoing deficits is driving up bond yields globally this morning. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung has identified a tipping point for the debt bound up in China’s key Local Government Financing Vehicles ( LGFVs ). Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Oct 16, 2023•10 min
