Oil prices are up sharply this morning on signs Israeli troops will advance into Gaza within hours. A flight to safer assets is strengthening the US$ vs the Aussie and Kiwi dollars, while the yen is weak at 149.59/$. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Group’s Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga reviews the Fed’s recent comments, previews the week ahead and analyses changing investment flows in Asia. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/fi...
Oct 15, 2023•10 min
US Treasury yields surged again overnight after fresh signs of heat in US super-core inflation data. That pushed the US dollar up against the Aussie dollar, the Kiwi dollar and the euro. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh unravels a rise in portfolio outflows in Asia-ex China and looks ahead. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Oct 12, 2023•10 min
Oil prices fell after Saudi Arabia reassured markets it would use its oil supplies to stabilise prices. US Treasury yields fell further on benign inflation data and more Fed comments that rates can be paused. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Strategist David Croy looks at the weight of new Government bonds being issued to pay for deficits that are helping to force up yields globally, including in New Zealand. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.an...
Oct 11, 2023•10 min
Stocks and bonds rallied globally this morning after a Fed official said rates wouldn’t have to rise again. The A$ and NZ$ rose to multi-week highs vs the US$, helped by a report China is planning US$137b of new infrastructure spending. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Asia Economist Krystal Tan explains how high oil prices for longer will hit some Asian economies more than others. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-po...
Oct 10, 2023•10 min
Oil prices have bounced on fear the conflict in Gaza and Israel could spread to Iran. The Aussie and Kiwi dollars are firmer this morning on softer market expectations for a Fed rate hike in either November or December. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s NZ Chief Economist Sharon Zollner previews New Zealand’s election this Saturday. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Oct 09, 2023•10 min
US jobs growth was much stronger than expected, but the resulting initial bond market selloff was eventually tepid as it became clear wage growth and unemployment weren’t quite so inflationary In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Australia Senior Economist Adelaide Timbrell details the RBA’s level of comfort with financial stability in its half-yearly review. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Oct 08, 2023•9 min
Markets are unsettled and wary of US non farm payrolls data tonight. Oil prices fell sharply again overnight. In our bonus deep-dive interview ahead of the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s next policy decision, ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh explains why it nudges the S$ about to control inflation, rather than interest rates. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Oct 05, 2023•10 min
A fragile calm has returned to global markets after weaker-than-expected US jobs growth data halted this week’s rout in US Treasuries. Oil prices fell 5%. In part two of our bonus deep-dive interview marking the 40th anniversary of the Hong Kong dollar’s peg, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung looks at its digital future, and why a renminbi link is unlikely. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Oct 04, 2023•10 min
US Treasury yields surged again overnight, boosting the US dollar vs the yen and the Aussie and Kiwi dollars. US stocks slumped 1.5-2%. The yen spiked after briefly going through 150, triggering unconfirmed talk of intervention. In part one of our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung explains the importance of the Hong Kong dollar’s unbroken peg with the US dollar on the eve of its 40th anniversary. Before accessing this podcast, please read the discla...
Oct 03, 2023•10 min
US bonds sold off aggressively overnight on the ‘higher-for-longer’ view after a Government shutdown was averted and US factory activity was above forecasts. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of G3 Economics Brian Martin explains why the ‘higher-for-longer’ story is taking hold and how US fiscal and monetary policy is being projected around the world. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Oct 02, 2023•9 min
A shutdown of US Government spending was averted at the last minute. US inflation data was benign ahead of key non-farm-payrolls data on Friday. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Pacific Economist Kishti Sen looks at how the Pacific’s $1.6 billion infrastructure deficit could be solved. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Oct 01, 2023•9 min
Bonds sold off sharply in Italy and Britain overnight on fears about deficit spending and more talk of ‘higher for longer’ interest rates needed to control inflation globally. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ NZ Economist Andre Castaing explains why New Zealand’s housing market is heating up again. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Sep 28, 2023•8 min
Oil prices surged again overnight to new 10-month highs of almost US$97/bbl after US oil inventories fell to their lowest levels in over a year. US bond yields rose again and US stocks fell more after strong US durable goods orders. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Food, Beverage and Agri-Insight Michael Whitehead explains why sheep prices in Australia are slumping under $10 per head. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/fi...
Sep 27, 2023•9 min
US stocks are down this morning on concerns about higher interest rates for longer, and a slide in US consumer confidence In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh details a couple of new leading indicators for Asian GDP growth. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/
Sep 26, 2023•10 min
The US dollar is at new highs this morning, powered by another rise in US bond yields in the wake of the Fed’s decision to keep rates high for longer. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ India Economist Dhiraj Nim explains why India’s inclusion in a JP Morgan bond index is so important. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Sep 25, 2023•9 min
Bond yields start the week near 17-year highs after a sustained global selloff, but that may be ending, says ANZ’s Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga . In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Australia Economist Maddy Dunk picks out the strongest and weakest of the state economies, including a few surprises. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Sep 24, 2023•10 min
Russia banned diesel exports overnight. The Bank of England voted 5-4 to hold, hammering the pound to a six month low. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Senior International Economist Tom Kenny digs into the FOMC’s ‘hawkish hold’ this week and finds the Fed is more hopeful it can engineer about a ‘Goldilocks’ soft landing. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Sep 21, 2023•10 min
The Fed held as expected, but the FOMC’s dot plot showed two fewer rate cuts in 2024 than the last dot plot. Market interest rates rose, the US$ strengthened and the yen fell through 148 again. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Food, Beverage and Agri Insights Michael Whitehead talks about how farmers have prepared for the El Nino declared this week, and what it means for beef and grain prices. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institu...
Sep 20, 2023•9 min
Oil prices bubbled up over US$95 a barrel overnight and seem destined to top US$100 as refineries bid against each other for crude to make hay from high diesel refining margins. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Group’s Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga explains why AI may not become the deflationary force that some think. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Sep 19, 2023•10 min
Oil prices rose to almost US$95 a barrel overnight. Australia’s economy is showing early signs of perking up ahead of minutes today from the RBA. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Senior Commodities Strategist Daniel Hynes looks at the IEA’s prediction that oil demand will begin falling before 2030. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Sep 18, 2023•9 min
China’s economy performed better than expected in August after 28 stimulus measures in three months. ANZ has upgraded its China GDP forecasts. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ Group’s Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga explains Queensland’s economic superpowers, and its vulnerabilities. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Sep 17, 2023•9 min
The ECB hiked overnight, but it lowered its growth and inflation forecasts, and signalled it would stop there, so stocks and bonds rallied. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh reveals how the PBoC used most of its toolkit to defend the yuan/renminbi (CNH), but still has one very big bazooka left. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Sep 14, 2023•10 min
US consumer price inflation in August was a tad higher and stickier than expected, but not enough to derail expectations the Fed will hold next week. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Asia Research Khoon Goh unpacks a surprise net outflow of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) from Asia. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Sep 13, 2023•10 min
Oil rose 2% to 10-month highs overnight after OPEC forecast continued strong demand. Diesel prices are surging even more, bringing back supply chain inflation headaches. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Head of Food, Beverage and Agribusiness Insights Michael Whitehead details a massive shift in Australian farming from sheep and cattle to grain. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Sep 12, 2023•9 min
The yen has surged in the last 24 hours on talk the Bank of Japan may pivot away from very low interest rates. The renminbi (CNH) jumped after the PBoC threatened intervention. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s NZ Senior Economist Miles Workman explains what a PREFU is and why it matters. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Sep 11, 2023•9 min
China reported a return to CPI inflation in August, but it wasn’t quite as big a bounce as forecast. The strong US$ is seen putting Asian currencies under pressure again this week. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga explains why China’s many smaller structural reform measures are combining to turn into a more substantial set of stimuli. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Sep 10, 2023•9 min
European GDP growth was much weaker than expected overnight, reinforcing the gap seen opening up between the US economy and the rest of the global economy and powering the US$ ever higher. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Asia Economist Krystal Tan details how Bank Indonesia is fighting to contain the pressures on the rupiah from that strong US$. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Sep 07, 2023•10 min
The yen and the renminbi are near record lows this morning vs the US dollar as the king of currencies is getting even more of a tailwind from higher bond yields. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Senior Economist for China Betty Wang explains the shift toward a new public housing model in China that looks a lot like the one used for the last 60 years in Singapore. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Sep 06, 2023•10 min
The Australian and New Zealand dollars weakened sharply overnight against ‘King US Dollar’, which was helped by stronger-than-expected US factory output data lifting bond yields. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Chief Economist for Southeast Asia and India, Sanjay Mathur unpacks the rebound in consumer spending in the region after Covid. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Sep 05, 2023•10 min
The RBA is set to hold the cash rate for a third consecutive month later today, but with a hawkish twist. The US$ remains strong against the yen and renminbi. The RBI is keeping a floor under the rupee. In our bonus deep-dive interview, ANZ’s Group Chief Economist Richard Yetsenga look’s at India’s burgeoning economic growth as it steps up to host G20 leaders this weekend. Before accessing this podcast, please read the disclaimer at https://www.anz.com/institutional/five-in-five-podcast/...
Sep 04, 2023•10 min
