Episode description

Earnings are continuing into further decline. 86 of 100 companies in the NASDAQ 100 are calling for in aggregate earnings decline.

Mortgage originations (purchase applications) are down 41% YoY. That’s the worst in 28 years.

The yield curve continues to signal trouble ahead.

Rates are continuing to go up.

Corporate bankruptcies are rising.

Credit is continuing to contract.

The bad news on employment is that more layoffs have been announced in areas such as tech and finance.

The good news on employment is that there are many job openings being reported, and wage growth in lower-wage, hourly jobs is increasing, and increasing rapidly. That’s good to see because it’s been much needed. Younger people, and people with less experience are able to be paid much more now.

Social Security Cost Of Living Adjusments kicked in for January at just over 8%, raising incomes for many.

Spending is still strong. Although personal spending is hotter than personal income growth. Savings rates are declining, and use of credit cards is increasing. Take what you will from all of that.

Another half-percent rate hike is on deck for March. The Fed isn’t pausing, let alone pivoting or cutting.

We don’t believe there’s a soft landing ahead.