Economics and finance demystified.
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Well, we said it was the year of election. Now we live with the consequences. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns . Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information....
The fabulous US economy Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns . Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
The first UK budget ever delivered by a female Chancellor was presented with aplomb and panache. A pity the details didn’t match up to the presentation. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns . Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information....
Germany is in economic trouble. Its car industry - 7% of the economy - is being squeezed by struggling exports (to China in particular) and a poorly handled transition to EVs. Add in problems that go back decades and maybe its time to become a Eurosceptic again. If Trump wins, the Democrats need to look in mirror. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns . Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information....
Loads of men (mostly) say their favourite movie is The Godfather. Plenty also rate the Sopranos as the best TV series ever. Is that because they secretly (and not so secretly these days) would love to have a Mafiosi's unchecked power? Brexit is the most contemporary example of people saying the system doesn't work for them and then replacing it with something far worse. The US appears to be on the verge of making the same mistake. Unchecked power accompanied by extreme wealth turns people mad. T...
It's easy to conclude that we are a violent species. Just look at the state of the world. In a quite brilliant book, Professor Christopher Blattman argues that history books can give a misleading impression: on most days, war doesn't happen. Blattman has read everything. He has talked to the street gangs of Chicago and drug lords in Colombia. He summarises his vast knowledge with five main reasons why going to war - rathe than making peace - seems to happen. Armed (pardon the pun) with this know...
Irish house prices are now well in excess of their pre-financial crisis peaks. Is the only thing that will get them down an old fashioned recession? More supply is certainly needed but it is far from clear that more houses equals lower prices - other things are not equal Why do we still bang on about a cost of living crisis when inflation has fallen towards zero? If not actually zero. May be the answer is really simple: in the US (and probably elsewhere) food and energy price inflation reached 4...
The arguments over the help needed for the domestic economy run and run Is Sinn Fein just a reunification party with a few half-hearted populist policies thrown in to get elected? Neither Chris nor Jim won the economics Nobel Prize. And much more! Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns . Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information....
Is the Irish inflation rate too low? All economists bar one or two say that the economy is over-heating. Could the opposite be true? Latest data certainly hints in that direction. Inflation disappoints, ever so slightly, in the US, where interest rate expectations have shifted again. The European interest rate outlook hasn't shifted at all - rates are coming down. Very soon. An important debate is to be had about whether or not pubs, restaurants and hotels need special treatment from the governm...
Is Keir Starmer up to the task? The early evidence suggests not? Are bankers worth it? Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns . Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information....
Has the coalition blown it? Or does the outpouring of budget criticism from official Ireland miss the point: it's what the people wanted? Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns . Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information....
Will the electorate be grateful for budget 2025? Where was the long-term strategy and/or vision? So little for Irish businesses, particularly indigenous SMEs Tax base narrowed again Infrastructure mentioned loads of times with few details, let alone plans Not nearly enough focus on return on invetsment Will it work? In political terms at least. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns . Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information....
As we approach Budget 2025, we reflect on the usual leaked measures and suggest we are just children looking for the keys to the sweet shop. And yet so many of us say we want more houses, better health and high-quality schools. And then we elect politicians with a mandate to do none of those things. Is democracy structurally incapable of delivering much needed change? Or is just a system that delivers blocking coalitions to parliaments everywhere that prevent anything serious from happening? Is ...
A prominent ex central banker has suggested that Ireland should spend the money: it's time, he says, for 'Jam today'. That's our interpretation, at least, of his only slightly coded remarks. Trumponomics: it's time to take them seriously, if not literally. Another Chinese economic stimulus: bazooka or pea-shooter? Your weekly reminder about the global nature of the housing crisis Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns . Hosted on Acast. See acas...
There is a building slowdown in global manufacturing that is starting to look serious. This is a Chinese problem that is fast becoming a major issue for Germany. That's one explanation for the rise of the right in Germany. The new UK government is beginning to look like a bewildered bunch of not very good middle managers Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns . Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information....
The US central bank goes large and delivers a big interest rate cut. Thereby admitting it should have cut sooner. The Irish property market moves into double figure price inflation. And mortgage rates are only going to fall further Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns . Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information....
What is the right level of interest rates? While discussion of 'R-star' might seem esoteric, they do say one important thing: Euro interest rates are way too high. The Federal Reserve has achieved its price stability mandate and is now switching to focus on employment. Growth is now front and centre of all European economic policy debate. Even - especially - in the UK. The new chancellor is going down exactly the wrong path if she sticks to her fiscal rules. Don't just listen to us - every econo...
Irish inflation this week confirmed that the economy is showing few, if any, obvious signs of overheating. Prices are still going. up but at their slowest pace in a long while. That said, prices are 20% higher than we saw pre-pandemic. Memo to economists: don't pretend you know what causes inflation. European interest rates are still too high. When does government debt matter? 100% of GDP? 300% of GDP? As always, it all depends! But the US is adding to its debt in a most reckless and unsustainab...
In this podcast special Jim talks with Alex Denning, a 25 year old racing superstar. The business of modern racing is all about money, contacts and driving talent - in that order. Alex talks about doing exactly what his parents didn't want him to do. Making it with McLaren! But it costs anything between 5-15 million to break into Formula 1. Sometimes more - your dad has to buy the car company! Want. to lose weight? Forget about Ozempic - drive a McLaren very fast for lots of laps and you will be...
To the surprise of many observers, Europe's top court has told Apple it must pay Ireland €13.1 billion in back taxes. In a case that dates back to 2016, it's partly a history lesson about dodgy practices - the double Irish and all that. Those days are long gone. But there is also an investment lesson here, one that is not just of historical interest. The outcome of the original investment was €14.8 billion became €13.1 billion, thanks to the original purchase of negative yielding government bond...
Latest jobs numbers from the US point to a weakening economy. Interest rate cuts are on the way. The only question is, 'how big?' European elites are warning that Europe could cease to exist in its current from unless radical remedial action is taken. Few politicians will lsiten. If they do, they won't act. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns . Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information....
Still drowning in cash, the new Finance Minister is warned by IFAC, yet again, not to spend it. Are the fiscal giveaways of past budgets really costing each household €1000 a year? Amidst all the cries of 'they are windfall taxes' it's forgotten that capital investment is - or should be - very different to current spending. We used to argue about borrowing for investment purposes - economists have always pointed that that borrowing for investment is perfectly ok, provided the return on that inve...
Rather than put all the spare cash in a 'future proof' fund, should the Finance Minister simply recognise the future is here, right now? Deviance has been normalised. Bicycle sheds with golden roofs: a parable about quality versus quantity of government spending Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns . Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information....
J D Vance has shot to prominence following his selection by Donald Trump to be, potentially, the next Vice President of the US. In this podcast special, we focus on Vance's 2016 best-selling memoir, Hillbilly Elegy, to try and explain and understand the man who clearly wants, one day, to be the leader of the free world. We are joined by Professor Shane O'Mara of Trinity College Dublin to discuss all things JDV. And there really is a lot to discuss! Shane is also a best-selling author (of much be...
The upcoming budget is thought likely to include changes - increases - to tax breaks on pensions and a rise in inheritance tax thresholds. We both agree that helping millionaire pensioners with even more tax breaks is nuts. But we disagree sharply about the wisdom of inheritance taxes. These are incredibly emotive topics. As our discussion shows! The Other Hand always welcomes feedback - good, bad or indifferent. We share a particularly interesting perspective from one listener. Ireland's popula...
Ireland has just set a new record for the number of people in employment. Back in the day, you either worked on the farm, civil service, domestic service or emigrated (only slightly simplified). If you had accurately forecast the relentless fall in agriculture-related jobs over the past decades you would have also forecast an overall economic disaster - one that did not happen. There were plenty of bad times of course but you would not have expected rapidly growing population and job numbers in ...
Irish house prices are approaching double digit rates of increase. What is going on? Is it supply? Demand? Interest rates? Demography? The robust economy? Of course, it's all of the above. We need to think about all of these things. If you really want house prices to fall you would massively increase supply and aggressively raise interest rates. A good old fashioned recession would really help. So be careful what you wish for. The economy is, thankfully far from recession. But something weird is...
Chris explains why he has deleted his Twitter/X account. Donald Trump is weird, but is it a good attack line for the Democrats? Elon Musk's resemblance to Bond villain Elliot Carver Russia has been invaded: a story that doesn't figure on the front pages. And the latest economic news. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns . Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information....
It seems a touch fanciful to us, but some analysts are wondering if Intel could go the way of Nokia. What is true is that at least one big company with a big Irish presence is in a spot of bother. Let's hope its recovery plan works. But it is a reminder that many a once great company has disappeared. Who remembers that Nokia once was as dominant as Apple? The US regulator has declared Google to be a 'monopoly'. That could have profound consequences. Whether or not technological obsolescence and/...
Reminder: stock markets go down as well as up. But wait long enough and they usually go up. Is the return of volatility a sign of a problem or just another wobble that will soon be forgotten? One problem is the story we create around these type of events. Our narratives are often not very good guesses. Chris puts some cash to work and Jim sticks to Bitcoin - this is not investment advice!!! Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns . Hosted on Acas...
