A rising spirit of the times.
A rising spirit of the times. You fed up yet?
Episodes
The Daily Mission
Independent, straightforward take on life mission, life planning, financial planning, investing, the psych of money, communication around finances, things that troll Ye Olde Wall Street. By: Mission Advisory Group, a fiduciary-led Registered Investment Adviser, not beholden to any big bank or advisory firm. Relevant. Knowledgeable. Contrarian. Quant meets Qual. Algos. Humans. Access for all. This is not investment advice. For more information and to see disclosures, please visit:
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Episodes
Fed Fun Day in Jackson Hole: An irreverent take on what you need to know (or not)
J Pow wraps Jackson Hole Fed meeting with some thoughts
An update on the US $ and it’s hegemonic role as the world’s preferred reserve currency
An update on the US $ and it’s hegemonic role as the world’s preferred reserve currency The U.S. is 26% of the global economy, as measured by annual GDP. US$ is still 58% of global reserves. It was already declining pre-Covid & pre-UKR War. Despite the massive $$ creation, mismanagement of Fed debt, and abuses of the dollar, it’s still in place for years ahead. I don’t see how it’s unseated without at least these conditions being present: 1. The emergence of a strong, proven, gold-backed alt...
A note on mortgage rates & inflation
A note on mortgage rates & inflation This is where mortgage banking and residential real estate overlap w/macroeconomics & money mgt. First, a disclaimer. I am not a real estate agent or broker. However, understanding some basics around calculating risk, probability, and applying to personal money management/financial decisions: 1. I wouldn't be buying a house right now until prices adjust from the shock of the RATE OF CHANGE of the moves in rates. Understand the magnitude. 2. I woul...
Tax Cuts & Jobs Act Sunsets in 2025 - What does that mean for Roth conversions?
You have 28 months before the 2018 TCJA (Tax Cuts & Jobs Act) sunsets. ▶ If it expires, we roll back to prior tax brackets 📈 or ▶ It could be extended and remain as-is or ▶ It could be replaced w/a new act and higher tax rates 📈 2/3 of outcomes lead to higher taxes ❗ Roth conversion? Maybe. ▶ Depends on your tax situation, your current income bracket, your ability to pay the taxes on the conversion, your understanding of all conditions that apply including the NIIT(Net Investment Income Ta...
How Much Is Enough? "The Psychology Of Money" Series Chapter 3: Never Enough. When Rich People Do Crazy Things.
How Much Is Enough? "The Psychology Of Money" Series Chapter 3: Never Enough. When Rich People Do Crazy Things.
An Astonishing Recent Shift in Money & Wealth in America. Do The Rich Keep Getting Richer?
There are different ways to measure wealth. In this case, we’re talking about money and assets. You can look at income. You can look at overall wealth, or holdings, or assets. You can also zero in on cash deposits. After all, cash is king when you need it. When the prices of goods and services go up. When you have to feed your kids and get them school supplies. When opportunities arise and you hope to level up your own state of financial security. A massive move happened from 2019 to 2022, accor...
Big Summer Blowout & Riding The Gnarly Inflation Wave!
Some highlights -> 8 stocks have driven 90% of the S&P 500’s return (but that may be changing) -> Cost at the fuel pump is up -> Inflation up just a bit. CPI came in today at +3.2% YoY, so a little bit higher than the June YoY #. We’ll go over those #’s in minute. -> GDP is up. That’s on $1.5 trillion of government spending. Think of 3 big factors that affect GDP: consumption, investment, and gov’t spending. It’s that last item that has really juiced GDP of late. With the debt ce...
Part 3: Mid-Year Review & Outlook 2023; Warning: Content May Be Boring.
Part Tres Mid-Year Review & Outlook 2023; Warning: Content May Be Boring.
Part 2: Mid-Year Review & Outlook 2023; Warning: Content May Be Boring.
Part Deux Mid-Year Review & Outlook 2023; Warning: Content May Be Boring.
Part 1: Mid-Year Review & Outlook 2023; Warning: Content May Be Boring.
Part 1 of our firm's Mid-Year Review & Outlook 2023; Warning: Content May Be Boring.
Welcome To The Job Fair! Would You Like Any Sauces To Go With That?
A few points from the latest in jobs. Stuff you won't hear from financial media.
Build a Skill. Your Confidence and Your Wallet Will Thank You
Having skill at something, anything boosts self-esteem and gives a person a backup job.
When Stocks Are This Hot, You Have To Remember What It Takes To Break Even From Losses
Consider risk management and what it takes to recover from a deep loss.
Market Madness continued! (or “Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent”)
Consumers are getting squeezed, cash levels are growing short, credit card usage is way up at a time when the average APR is 21%, and we now know that globally consumers, and not manufacturing, are carrying the economy. The global economy seems to be cruising on one engine as it relies on services for momentum. Meanwhile, we’re in an industrial & manufacturing recession as factories slow production. We’re seeing contraction across major economies in the latest #’s with the US index hitting i...
12 Steps To Financial Success
These are the 12 Steps we use in planning: 1. Live on less than you earn. This is rule #1. Full stop. Nothing can happen beyond this until it’s upheld through lifestyle and budgeting. 2. Make sure you have enough insurance coverage for all needs. 3. Make sure you can cover basic deductibles. 4. Set aside the first 1 month of emergency cash reserves, while making minimum payments to high-interest debt. 5. Max out your employer match. You won’t get the opportunity again for this “free” money. 6. C...
Current thoughts on Bitcoin as trade vs buy-and-hold
Some have asked our view on crypto. Crypto market cap, minus BTC and ETH, is -60% since cycle peak in Nov 2021. BTC still trades like a high-beta asset. (Comments on Bitcoin further below, if you want to TL;DR and jump ahead) 🔹 I would not feel comfortable in a fiduciary role commenting on crypto, positive or negative, beyond what I've posted and put into a podcast to say that we're not in. 🔹 The amount of additional analysis needed at this point, not just to understand: 1. what it is ...
Quick Thoughts on The Mother Of All (Asset) Bubbles
Is “The Mother Of All (Asset) Bubbles” underway?
Psychology Of Money Chapter 2: Luck & Risk
Have you ever looked at a situation, or a person, and wondered if and how luck plays into success? Luck is real, as is risk. And these two factors show us the reality that every outcome in life has forces that exist in addition to, and beyond our individual effort. Fact is, they both play a role in life and must be respected. We don’t know how much luck plays into anyone’s success. As Housel says, “when judging others, attributing success to luck makes you look jealous and mean. Even though we k...
Quick note today on markets and global banking situation
This is a quick market note for today, given the news on global banking, risk, and signs that we could be seeing a sovereign debt crisis unfold. Here’s a pertinent take from J. Kyle Bass this morning. If you don’t know Kyle Bass, he is the Dallas-based Hayman Capital hedge fund manager who first came to public prominence for shorting the subprime fallout. Since then he has become a nearly unmatched financial analyst on China. One of his tweets this morning in regards to the global banking situat...
Inflation Nation: A Change in the Calculation
Since we’ve talked quite a bit about inflation over the course of this podcast, given that it launched last year, it’s important to note that the calculation of inflation just underwent a change. And February’s CPI report was the first to be calculated using a new methodology. Here’s the change. Measuring CPI in 2022, you would take 2021+2020 consumption. 2023 = ONLY 2022 consumption. Previously, CPI was calculated using 2 years of data. Now it will be just 1. From the page of the Bureau Of Labo...
When Things Break
When the cost of capital goes up, and quickly, things break. We've reached that point.
Crypto Outro Manifesto
I'm going drop a risk-grenade in the room and walk out. When you deal w/publicly-traded securities, there's regulation. There's also (generally) liquidity and some sort of market value even if markets sell off. Yes, technically all stocks and all funds could go to zero. I think if that were to occur, society/civilization as we know it would cease to exist. Those left would be rendered back to hunter-gatherer status. There's an unknown risk remaining for crypto markets and all associated coins, t...
NO WAGES FOR YOU!
Wages are "sticky". Once raised, they tend not to drop. Wages and benefits are also the largest cost a business has to cover. Yes, inflation is hitting our wallets. And further squeezing a huge swath of the American public. 👉🏼 50% of Americans do not own a single share of stock, or an index fund, mutual fund, or ETF. 👉🏼 40% of Americans report that they could not come up with $400 in the event of an emergency. 👉🏼 More American than ever are reporting living paycheck-to-paycheck, including ...
The Psychology Of Money Series - Chapter 1: "No One's Crazy"
Money in-and-of itself is just a tool. It’s a thing that is supposed to represent the exchange of energy that you put into work for its return. I personally believe that huge piles of cash stored away is a disservice in that it’s not being invested or put into flow, whereby more money can be made, people can start businesses and be funded, etc. Money should not be the cause of losing your closest relationships. If this is the case, then one or both parties might want to rediscover and reprioriti...
The Daily Mission Market Week of Feb 20-24: FED TO THE MOON?!
Earnings are continuing into further decline. 86 of 100 companies in the NASDAQ 100 are calling for in aggregate earnings decline. Mortgage originations (purchase applications) are down 41% YoY. That’s the worst in 28 years. The yield curve continues to signal trouble ahead. Rates are continuing to go up. Corporate bankruptcies are rising. Credit is continuing to contract. The bad news on employment is that more layoffs have been announced in areas such as tech and finance. The good news on empl...
Why The US Consumer Thinks The Way They Do: The Psychology Of Money Series (Postscript)
Why The US Consumer Thinks The Way They Do: The Psychology Of Money Series (Postscript)
Intro: The Psychology Of Money Series
Our intro to a series inspired by The Psychology Of Money by Morgan Housel. We share insights from his book as a read-along. Outside of direct quotes and paraphrasing, the additional views and comments contained are our own. We are not involved with Morgan Housel, his firm, or his publisher. We have no conflicts of interest regarding his book. We receive no compensation of any kind for recommending it. We simply found it to be inspiring and useful and wanted to share it with you in the interest ...
Your start to 2023: The madness of crowds, market makers, greed, short-squeezes, Fedfakes, & 0DTE options (those b*strds! they killed the market!)
Your start to 2023: The madness of crowds, market makers, greed, short-squeezes, Fedfakes, & 0DTE options (those b*strds! they killed the market!)
It's The Daily Mission relaunch! More episodes, more somewhat possibly moderately interesting stuff!
We heard you speak via Spotify Wrapped and found out that we were in the top 15% most shared. Whoa! In the words of Ron Burgundy, "I don't believe you". Alas, here we are. Tripling down for 2023. Or tripping down. IDK. More content. More unique series. More somewhat possibly moderately above average stuff. Please listen and share. So my kids can be fed. Thank you.