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The Daily Mission

Greg Saurenman•followthemission.com
Business
Investing
Independent, straightforward take on life mission, life planning, financial planning, investing, the psych of money, communication around finances, things that troll Ye Olde Wall Street. By: Mission Advisory Group, a fiduciary-led Registered Investment Adviser, not beholden to any big bank or advisory firm. Relevant. Knowledgeable. Contrarian. Quant meets Qual. Algos. Humans. Access for all. This is not investment advice. For more information and to see disclosures, please visit: https://www.followthemission.com https://www.linkedin.com/in/gregsaurenman/ https://twitter.com/motion2action
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Episodes

An update on the US $ and it’s hegemonic role as the world’s preferred reserve currency

An update on the US $ and it’s hegemonic role as the world’s preferred reserve currency The U.S. is 26% of the global economy, as measured by annual GDP. US$ is still 58% of global reserves. It was already declining pre-Covid & pre-UKR War. Despite the massive $$ creation, mismanagement of Fed debt, and abuses of the dollar, it’s still in place for years ahead. I don’t see how it’s unseated without at least these conditions being present: 1. The emergence of a strong, proven, gold-backed alt...

Aug 16, 2023•7 min

A note on mortgage rates & inflation

A note on mortgage rates & inflation This is where mortgage banking and residential real estate overlap w/macroeconomics & money mgt. First, a disclaimer. I am not a real estate agent or broker. However, understanding some basics around calculating risk, probability, and applying to personal money management/financial decisions: 1. I wouldn't be buying a house right now until prices adjust from the shock of the RATE OF CHANGE of the moves in rates. Understand the magnitude. 2. I woul...

Aug 15, 2023•4 min

Tax Cuts & Jobs Act Sunsets in 2025 - What does that mean for Roth conversions?

You have 28 months before the 2018 TCJA (Tax Cuts & Jobs Act) sunsets. ▶ If it expires, we roll back to prior tax brackets 📈 or ▶ It could be extended and remain as-is or ▶ It could be replaced w/a new act and higher tax rates 📈 2/3 of outcomes lead to higher taxes ❗ Roth conversion? Maybe. ▶ Depends on your tax situation, your current income bracket, your ability to pay the taxes on the conversion, your understanding of all conditions that apply including the NIIT(Net Investment Income Ta...

Aug 15, 2023•3 min

An Astonishing Recent Shift in Money & Wealth in America. Do The Rich Keep Getting Richer?

There are different ways to measure wealth. In this case, we’re talking about money and assets. You can look at income. You can look at overall wealth, or holdings, or assets. You can also zero in on cash deposits. After all, cash is king when you need it. When the prices of goods and services go up. When you have to feed your kids and get them school supplies. When opportunities arise and you hope to level up your own state of financial security. A massive move happened from 2019 to 2022, accor...

Aug 10, 2023•13 min

Big Summer Blowout & Riding The Gnarly Inflation Wave!

Some highlights -> 8 stocks have driven 90% of the S&P 500’s return (but that may be changing) -> Cost at the fuel pump is up -> Inflation up just a bit. CPI came in today at +3.2% YoY, so a little bit higher than the June YoY #. We’ll go over those #’s in minute. -> GDP is up. That’s on $1.5 trillion of government spending. Think of 3 big factors that affect GDP: consumption, investment, and gov’t spending. It’s that last item that has really juiced GDP of late. With the debt ce...

Aug 10, 2023•12 min

Market Madness continued! (or “Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent”)

Consumers are getting squeezed, cash levels are growing short, credit card usage is way up at a time when the average APR is 21%, and we now know that globally consumers, and not manufacturing, are carrying the economy. The global economy seems to be cruising on one engine as it relies on services for momentum. Meanwhile, we’re in an industrial & manufacturing recession as factories slow production. We’re seeing contraction across major economies in the latest #’s with the US index hitting i...

Jun 23, 2023•8 min

12 Steps To Financial Success

These are the 12 Steps we use in planning: 1. Live on less than you earn. This is rule #1. Full stop. Nothing can happen beyond this until it’s upheld through lifestyle and budgeting. 2. Make sure you have enough insurance coverage for all needs. 3. Make sure you can cover basic deductibles. 4. Set aside the first 1 month of emergency cash reserves, while making minimum payments to high-interest debt. 5. Max out your employer match. You won’t get the opportunity again for this “free” money. 6. C...

Jun 03, 2023•13 min

Current thoughts on Bitcoin as trade vs buy-and-hold

Some have asked our view on crypto. Crypto market cap, minus BTC and ETH, is -60% since cycle peak in Nov 2021. BTC still trades like a high-beta asset. (Comments on Bitcoin further below, if you want to TL;DR and jump ahead) 🔹 I would not feel comfortable in a fiduciary role commenting on crypto, positive or negative, beyond what I've posted and put into a podcast to say that we're not in. 🔹 The amount of additional analysis needed at this point, not just to understand: 1. what it is ...

Jun 03, 2023•7 min

Psychology Of Money Chapter 2: Luck & Risk

Have you ever looked at a situation, or a person, and wondered if and how luck plays into success? Luck is real, as is risk. And these two factors show us the reality that every outcome in life has forces that exist in addition to, and beyond our individual effort. Fact is, they both play a role in life and must be respected. We don’t know how much luck plays into anyone’s success. As Housel says, “when judging others, attributing success to luck makes you look jealous and mean. Even though we k...

Mar 17, 2023•7 min

Quick note today on markets and global banking situation

This is a quick market note for today, given the news on global banking, risk, and signs that we could be seeing a sovereign debt crisis unfold. Here’s a pertinent take from J. Kyle Bass this morning. If you don’t know Kyle Bass, he is the Dallas-based Hayman Capital hedge fund manager who first came to public prominence for shorting the subprime fallout. Since then he has become a nearly unmatched financial analyst on China. One of his tweets this morning in regards to the global banking situat...

Mar 15, 2023•2 min

Inflation Nation: A Change in the Calculation

Since we’ve talked quite a bit about inflation over the course of this podcast, given that it launched last year, it’s important to note that the calculation of inflation just underwent a change. And February’s CPI report was the first to be calculated using a new methodology. Here’s the change. Measuring CPI in 2022, you would take 2021+2020 consumption. 2023 = ONLY 2022 consumption. Previously, CPI was calculated using 2 years of data. Now it will be just 1. From the page of the Bureau Of Labo...

Mar 15, 2023•3 min

When Things Break

When the cost of capital goes up, and quickly, things break. We've reached that point.

Mar 15, 2023•8 min

Crypto Outro Manifesto

I'm going drop a risk-grenade in the room and walk out. When you deal w/publicly-traded securities, there's regulation. There's also (generally) liquidity and some sort of market value even if markets sell off. Yes, technically all stocks and all funds could go to zero. I think if that were to occur, society/civilization as we know it would cease to exist. Those left would be rendered back to hunter-gatherer status. There's an unknown risk remaining for crypto markets and all associated coins, t...

Mar 08, 2023•3 min

NO WAGES FOR YOU!

Wages are "sticky". Once raised, they tend not to drop. Wages and benefits are also the largest cost a business has to cover. Yes, inflation is hitting our wallets. And further squeezing a huge swath of the American public. 👉🏼 50% of Americans do not own a single share of stock, or an index fund, mutual fund, or ETF. 👉🏼 40% of Americans report that they could not come up with $400 in the event of an emergency. 👉🏼 More American than ever are reporting living paycheck-to-paycheck, including ...

Mar 08, 2023•4 min

The Psychology Of Money Series - Chapter 1: "No One's Crazy"

Money in-and-of itself is just a tool. It’s a thing that is supposed to represent the exchange of energy that you put into work for its return. I personally believe that huge piles of cash stored away is a disservice in that it’s not being invested or put into flow, whereby more money can be made, people can start businesses and be funded, etc. Money should not be the cause of losing your closest relationships. If this is the case, then one or both parties might want to rediscover and reprioriti...

Feb 25, 2023•9 min

The Daily Mission Market Week of Feb 20-24: FED TO THE MOON?!

Earnings are continuing into further decline. 86 of 100 companies in the NASDAQ 100 are calling for in aggregate earnings decline. Mortgage originations (purchase applications) are down 41% YoY. That’s the worst in 28 years. The yield curve continues to signal trouble ahead. Rates are continuing to go up. Corporate bankruptcies are rising. Credit is continuing to contract. The bad news on employment is that more layoffs have been announced in areas such as tech and finance. The good news on empl...

Feb 25, 2023•7 min

Intro: The Psychology Of Money Series

Our intro to a series inspired by The Psychology Of Money by Morgan Housel. We share insights from his book as a read-along. Outside of direct quotes and paraphrasing, the additional views and comments contained are our own. We are not involved with Morgan Housel, his firm, or his publisher. We have no conflicts of interest regarding his book. We receive no compensation of any kind for recommending it. We simply found it to be inspiring and useful and wanted to share it with you in the interest ...

Feb 11, 2023•5 min