Judd Arnold discusses how the offshore place is at an inflection point and why he thinks Tidewater (TDW) is the best way to lay it. Judd's initial piece on TDW : https://drive.google.com/file/d/1cKYzHg62bamDQa620NZcmn_af0A0xTfT/view Judd's TDW space : https://twitter.com/CorneliaLake/status/1600172923355922434?s=20&t=_Q2xMKdTTh1Lhlp-HeRD3w Chapters 0:00 Intro 2:30 What's interesting about offshore right now? 5:50 Comparing today's cycle to 2012-2014 10:00 TDW's replacement cost and why new b...
Jan 09, 2023•1 hr 4 min
The management team from Tidewater Offshore (TDW) comes on the podcast to discuss Tidewater and why we could be at an inflection point for the offshore space. TDW's investor relations page (with investor deck): https://investor.tdw.com/overview/default.aspx December OSV market report (from seabrokers): https://www.seabrokers.no/wp-content/uploads/SEABREEZE_December.pdf Chapters 0:00 Intro 2:50 What's different in the current cycle? 8:00 Why supply is so limited in offshore 13:10 What is TDW seei...
Jan 06, 2023•1 hr 5 min
Chris DeMuth joins the podcast to discuss the state of the markets in December 2022 and what’s catching his eye in event driven land, including updates on ATVI, why pre-arb was so bad in 2022, and WLFC's proposed takeout. Chapters 0:00 Intro 2:30 What's on Chris's mind 4:00 Discussing why "pre-arb" didn't work in 2022 11:20 Updating ATVI 21:00 Majority takeouts of minorities 29:45 WLFC takeout 37:20 AMZN's IRBT takeout...
Dec 22, 2022•47 min
Lionel Hutz discusses his thesis for Liquidia (LQDA) and why the thinks they are likely to win their patent battle against United Therapeutics (UTHR). Lionel's LQDA write up: https://lionelhutz.substack.com/p/waiting-with-bated-breath-for-liquidia Chapters 0:00 Intro 2:50 LQDA overview 8:05 Diving into the patent background 16:10 Breaking down the conflicting rulings on the '793 patent 19:55 Why the PTAB ruling is the most important for '793 21:55 What's so unique about the judge's ruling on '79...
Dec 19, 2022•1 hr 20 min
Mordechai Yavneh, founder and PM at Focus Capital, discusses his investment in Silicon Motion (SIMO) and why he thinks it's "merger arb for people who don't like merger arb." Focus Capital's research site (with SIMO deck): https://focuscapitaladvisers.com/research Chapters 0:00 Intro 2:40 Why SIMO is different than normal merger arbitrage 6:00 More SIMO overview 11:25 Is the merger overhang impacting SIMO's price? 15:30 Discussing SIMO's fundamentals 21:30 Why companies are outsourcing to SIMO 2...
Dec 15, 2022•1 hr 6 min
Avi Fisher from Long Cast Advisors joins the pod to talk about CoreCard (CCRD). Key topics include the risks and opportunities from their Apple Card / GS relationship and the benefits of the CEO’s measured growth approach. Chapters: 0:00 Intro 3:30 Avi's framework for evaluating stocks 22:45 How Avi found CCRD 24:35 CCRD's background 32:00 Discussing the GS relationship and concentration 36:50 CCRD's different revenue lines 40:50 Discussing the "Elephant in the room" (BB article on Apple trying ...
Dec 12, 2022•1 hr 13 min
AJ Secrist from Firstlight Management discussed his thesis for Lamb Weston (LW). LW is a very strong business, and AJ thinks the market is missing just how much margin upside there is as COVID era deals with large customers reprice and the company laps 2021’s disastrous potato crop. Chapters 0:00 Intro 2:25 LW Overview 9:35 LW Valuation 13:00 Isn't LW fully valued at these prices? 19:25 Discussing the current potato crop 26:55 Global margin upside 28:35 Why is scale an advantage for LW? 31:45 Wh...
Dec 08, 2022•59 min
The team from Half Moon Capital, Eric DeLamarter and Brandon Carnovale, come on the pod to discuss their thesis on Oxford Industries (OXM). OXM owns the Tommy Bahama and Lily Pulitzer brands, and Half Moon thinks the market is underestimating the strength of those brands for a variety of reasons. Half Moon's OXM thesis: https://acrobat.adobe.com/id/urn:aaid:sc:VA6C2:aec0338f-33d0-4e35-b956-ac6aa024167a?viewer%21megaVerb=group-discover Chapters 0:00 Intro 2:20 OXM overview 5:00 Tommy Bahama brand...
Dec 05, 2022•1 hr 6 min
Chris DeMuth joins the podcast to provide his state of the markets for November 2022, including what's happened with TWTR since the deal closed, FTX's implosion, and a quick run down of a few other merger arb situations. Chapters 0:00 Intro 2:50 What's going on with TWTR since the deal? 13:50 FTX's implosion 35:30 Chris's current thoughts on crypto 41:15 Walking through some merger situations
Dec 01, 2022•55 min
Michael Fritzell, founder of Asian Century Stocks, goes through his thesis on Casio Computer. Casio makes the popular G-Shock watches, and Michael thinks their rising popularity and a low valuation make for an interesting set up. Michael's Casio w rite up: https://www.asiancenturystocks.com/p/fb1ac5f5-9ce9-4c56-a930-874d1f73f4c8 Chapters 0:00 Intro 3:00 Casio Overview 6:30 Are watches a dying business? 12:55 Is Casio hitting an inflection point? 18:30 Who's buying G-Shock? 20:00 Casio's valuatio...
Nov 21, 2022•35 min
The "Koala", a buyside mining and commodity specialist, comes on to discuss the commodity and mining space in general and Ivanhoe Electric (IE) in particular. The Koala's twitter account : https://twitter.com/YellowLabLife Chapters 0:00 Intro 2:55 General mining / commodity sector overview 12:40 The "nothing can get built anymore" moat 18:40 Capital discipline imposed by low multiples 22:00 How Peabody talked their own stock down with growth plans 31:00 What is the market missing on coal? 44:00 ...
Nov 16, 2022•1 hr 23 min
Samir Patel, Portfolio Manager at Askeladden Capital, joins the podcast to discuss Mix Telematics (MIXT) and why he sent a letter to the company pushing for change. Askeladden's letter to MIXT : https://www.accesswire.com/723191/Askeladden-Capital-Announces-Activist-Position-in-MiX-Telematics-NYSEMIXT Chapters 0:00 Intro 2:50 MIXT Overview 5:45 MIXT's hardware to subscription switch 9:30 The economics of a MIXT subscription 12:30 What's the moat that prevents competitors entering the market? 18:...
Nov 14, 2022•1 hr 3 min
Bill Chen, a real estate investor, returns to the podcast to discuss HHC's value and why Bill Ackman's current tender for the company might undervalue HHC. HHC model: https://t.co/q6lQ69TeXZ Chapters 0:00 Intro 2:50 HHC overview 7:15 How HHC can create value over time 9:15 Valuing HHC's operating assets 11:35 Opportunity cost versus other publicly traded real estate 17:35 Valuing HHC's unstabilized assets 19:30 Valuing HHC's Hawaiian assets (Ward Village) 29:55 Valuing HHC's "other" assets 31:40...
Nov 07, 2022•1 hr 20 min
Chris Lee, a MBA student who won the Dorsey Stock Pitch Competition, comes on the podcast to discuss his winning pitch for Delta Apparel (DLA). Chris's winning pitch: https://dorseystockpitchcompetition.substack.com/p/long-delta-apparel-dla?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=web Chapters 0:00 Intro 2:30 Chris's background 4:45 DLA overview 10:20 DLA's valuation 13:40 Returns on capital and competition 17:35 DLA's Fanatics partnership 23:10 The Salt Life Brand 27:30 Is...
Nov 04, 2022•49 min
Chris DeMuth joins the podcast to discuss the state of the markets in October 2022 and what’s catching his eye in event driven land, with a large focus on TWTR. My prior podcast on SPB: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1549013912133111808?s=20&t=6iWCDZC_8sPzlIuELTNwdQ Chapters 0:00 Intro 2:30 What's on Chris's mind this month (TWTR) 4:50 Twitter's security review (or lack thereof) 7:30 Jurisdiction for a potential TWTR security review 13:30 What would a security review look like? 21...
Oct 26, 2022•55 min
Luis Sanchez, founder of LVS Advisory, disses the bull thesis for IBKR, including why the company is a major beneficiary of interest rates rising and how the company's business to business solution can drive major account growth. See Luis's IBKR write up here: https://lvsadvisory.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/LVS-Advisory-IBKR-Write-Up-September-2022.pdf Chapters 0:00 Intro 2:45 IBKR overview 6:05 What is Luis seeing in IBKR that the market is missing? 12:30 IBKR's valuation 15:15 Is IBKR more ...
Oct 17, 2022•1 hr 9 min
Lionel Hutz, author of the excellent lionelhutz substack, comes on the podcast to talk about the ongoing drama with Twitter and Elon Musk. In this episode, we exclusively discuss the Twitter case as it stands on October 13th, the odds the deal closes at the end of the month, why it might not, and what happens if it doesn’t. If you’re looking for more background on the deal, please see my podcast from May with Evan Tindell or August with Professor Ann Lipton and Compound248. Lionel's Twitter: htt...
Oct 14, 2022•1 hr 8 min
Doug O’Laughlin , founder of fabricated knowledge , returns to the podcast to discuss his thesis on SiTime (SITM). Doug's SITM write up: https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com/p/its-high-time-to-look-at-sitime Doug's first pod appearance: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/p/doug-from-fabricated-knowledge-on Chapters 0:00 Intro 2:45 SITM overview 7:50 What is the market missing at SITM? 12:45 Near term numbers and does management have a handle on the business? 18:05 MEMS versus Quartz market ...
Oct 10, 2022•1 hr 14 min
Zack Buckley discusses his investment thesis for Xponential Fitness (XPOF), including why he thinks the company is set for continued rapid growth. Zack's twitter: https://twitter.com/Amarginofsafety Chapters 0:00 Intro 2:00 Zack's background 5:15 XPOF overview 8:20 Can XPOF buck the history of publicly traded fitness? 12:10 Brand sustainability and the Curves comp 15:15 XPOF's valuation and multiples 17:50 XPOF management history 20:55 How XPOF's partnerships can create value 22:55 Does XPOF hav...
Oct 06, 2022•1 hr
Dave Johnson from Caligan Partners discusses his thesis on Evolus (EOLS). Evolus is a one product company. Their product, Jeuveau, is a Botox competitor exclusively focused on the cosmetics market, and Dave thinks the market is underpricing Jeuveau's strong growth potential. Caligan's website: https://www.caliganpartners.com/ Chapters 0:00 Intro 2:15 Caligan background 8:15 EOLS Overview 13:00 What does Dave see in EOLS that the market is missing? 19:30 Why can EOLS take share versus Botox 26:00...
Sep 30, 2022•59 min
Chris DeMuth joins the podcast to discuss the state of the markets in September 2022 and what’s catching his eye in event driven land, including an aggressive anti-trust regime and the potential for a bump at Swedish Match. Chapters 0:00 Intro 1:50 What's on Chris's Mind 3:10 What's happening in Antitrust 8:25 Does UNH's win in CHNG change the environment 10:45 Does European regulation impact the antitrust environment? 15:55 The ATVI / MSFT deal 23:30 Is it ok for regulators to be this "outgunne...
Sep 28, 2022•44 min
Kyle Mowery and Jake Miller come on the podcast to discus their new CoVest Select venture and then dive deep into their thesis for Orion Engineered Carbons (OEC). CoVest Twitter Account: https://twitter.com/CoVestSelect Chapters 0:00 Intro 2:20 CoVest overview 5:05 OEC overview 9:05 What is the market missing with OEC? 11:45 The supply demand dynamic for rubber black 14:15 Why isn't this a simple generic commodity business? 18:20 Are management's 2025 midcycle EBITDA targets reasonable? 21:00 Wh...
Sep 21, 2022•1 hr 9 min
Dave Waters of Alluvial Capital comes on the pod to discuss his investment thesis on $PX. You can find Dave's original podcast appearance, where he discuss PX when it was still PIOE and some other small caps, here: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1300763059267481600?s=20 Chapters 0:00 Intro 2:15 PX Overview 3:30 Management fee streams 5:10 Is PX's focus on fund of funds a concern? 8:25 Disintermediation risk for fund of funds 11:50 What is the market missing at PX? 15:20 Why PX versus ...
Sep 16, 2022•1 hr 1 min
James Elbaor, founder and CIO of Marlton Capital, discusses his investment thesis for Pershing Square Holdings (PSH). PSH is Bill Ackman's closed end fund. It trades at a discount, at James thinks Ackman is on the verge of taking steps that will both increase net asset value and shrink the discount. James' Twitter: https://twitter.com/jameselbaor Chapters 0:00 Intro 2:25 PSH Overview 11:50 Why would a U.S. listing close the NAV gap? 20:20 What could PSH buy to relist in the U.S.? 22:55 How does ...
Sep 12, 2022•1 hr 5 min
Jon Boyar returns to the podcast to talk about his investment thesis for MSGS and MSGE, including why he thinks investors are underrating James Dolan and just how wide their discount to asset value has become. You can find more on the Fresh Looks here: https://boyarresearch.myshopify.com/products/2022-opportunity-issue-edition-with-bonus-content?utm_content=216760092&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&hss_channel=tw-963533512887406593 Chapters 0:00 Intro 3:45 MSG History 8:10 Do th...
Aug 26, 2022•55 min
Andrew Carreon, founder of Emeth Value, discusses his thesis on Diversified Energy (DEC; trades in London). Key points include how the company can get such good deals on acquisitions, if the company has an edge in handling asset retirement obligations, and why the company pays such a big dividend. My bull thesis on DEC: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/p/tegus-sponsored-deep-dive-4-natural-198 Andrew's first podcast appearance on BSM: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/14029673142...
Aug 22, 2022•1 hr 28 min
Chris DeMuth returns to the podcast to talk about what's on his mind in the markets this month, including updates on TWTR, the IS / U / APP love triangle, and Rio's "failed" bid for TRQ. 0:00 Intro 2:10 Overview 3:45 What's happening with TWTR 26:10 IS / U / APP love triangle 45:00 Rio / TRQ
Aug 17, 2022•56 min
Tulane Law Professor Ann Lipton and Fintwit personality Compound248 discuss the latest in Twitter’s lawsuit against Elon Musk. Note that we dive directly into all the nuisances of the trial; for more background on how we got here and what’s at stake you can listen to my podcast from May with Evan Tindell. My May pod with Evan on TWTR: https://twitter.com/AndrewRangeley/status/1529452942931238914?s=20&t=7yi3kr0wvPY0nduenfVdSA Professor Lipton's Twitter: https://twitter.com/AnnMLipton Compound...
Aug 09, 2022•1 hr 17 min
David Bastian from Kingdom Capital discusses his bull thesis for Unit Corp (UNTC). David's UNTC write up: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4503262-unit-corporation-heads-win-tails-dont-lose Chapters 0:00 Intro 2:30 UNTC overview 5:00 Discussing UNTC's sale process 11:20 Thoughts on UNTC's prelim Q2 numbers 14:45 What is the market missing with UNTC? 18:00 What is UNTC's major shareholder thinking? 23:20 Why did the Gulf assets sell for such a discount? 27:15 Can UNTC increase their production? 3...
Aug 02, 2022•1 hr 8 min
Chris DeMuth returns to the podcast to talk about what's on his mind in the markets this month, including updates on TWTR, the state of antitrust, and the opportunity set in squeeze outs. 0:00 Intro 2:45 Markets Overview 4:25 Sanderson Farms (SAFM) 8:00 Majority owned companies and squeeze outs 10:40 CLR update and energy companies 21:55 Energy companies now versus Tobacco in the 80s 26:10 TWTR update 28:50 Review of the TWTR expedited hearing 35:25 Will Twitter win specific performance if they ...
Jul 28, 2022•58 min
