Honored to have Stephen Nesbit of the athletic where they should can call him on Twitter at Stephen jay Nesbit to talk Major League Baseball. Four games on the postseason docket today and it starts with the Tigers at Houston. Steven, thanks for the time. How are you today?
I'm doing well. Thanks for having me, Matt.
You bet. The Tigers and Astros. I think people should be torn in this if they're even in Detroit because of how Walt Detroit has played down the stretch. Houston has played really well since the All Star break and they have that championship pedigree. How do you look at this series and what is most important and how it plays out?
Yeah, I mean there are a lot of factors I think are going to be really compelling in this one. You're right to point out the Astros were pretty horrific in the first half. They almost gave away the division that they never give away. Right. This is a team that's gone to the ALCS six straight years, seven straight years, and the Mariners had a ten game lead at one point in June, so it was it was rough going
there for the Astros, but they figured it out. Now, what I would point out for Tigers fans, of which my entire family falls in, that is that these Astros aren't initially the Astros you're accustomed to. They are currently sort of fifty to fifty and whether you're not Alvarez, the big slugger, DH left fielder will play in the series, and Justin verland Or I doubt is going to be a factor. So you're dealing with Franver Valdez as their
number one. He's certainly a bona fide ace. They have a Hunter Brown who's a kid who went to Way State I believe it was, and to try it, and you say Kakuchu. They got over from from Toronto. They have capable starting pitching, but I don't think it's overwhelming starting pitching, and they have a really good back end of the bullpen. So I think it's the series where you would, typically as a neutral party, say the Astros will get this done. We've seen them do it so
many times with four. But the way the Tigers have played, it's very hard to deny the momentum they're carrying at this point. Whether this is vibes based or simply saying the fact is, as I wrote today, since the Wildcard series went to three games two years ago. All eight teams out of won game one have won the series, and in fact, only one of those series even went to three games. And so when you have Terri Schooble in game one, I have to go up against fran
Ra Valdez, a pair of lefties. If Scooble can win them game one, I don't see why the Tigers can't finish off one of you know, the other two games going with sort of the chaos pitching approach.
How important is playoff experience in your mind?
It's important, I think, I think a lot of playoff experience. Certainly Trump's none. I don't know that you know, having played in one wild Card series before would would change things wildly for your fortunes. But when you're dealing with Alex Bregman, Framer, that is Verlander, whether he's in this or not, Josh Hader, Brian Abrew, Ryan Presley, Kyle Tucker, all these guys that have been to the playoff year after year after year, it's Houston that's gonna help. They're
also playing at home. They're comfortable that park. The park plays rather interestingly right. It's a short porch to left field with the Crawford boxes they are. They also lead off with the pitcher in Valdez, who for years has been the highest ground ball percentage pitcher start pitcher in baseball. So he knows how to play in that park, and so the Tigers don't need timely swings and it might be a two to one, three one game that need to figure out how to win.
Stephen Nesbit of the Athletic Joiner is here on Exus and Bros faham on Twitter on x Stephen J. Nesbit and its st E p h e N j Nesbit with two t's. The Tigers are probably too young to even I don't want to say understand, but it almost too young to even care where the at and just you know, just play with that looseness. Some people in Detroit feel like it's house money. I'm not one of them. Can youthful inexperience almost be a benefit in your mind?
Yeah? I think it certainly. Can. We were just having this conversation yesterday. It was a ten year anniversary of the twenty fourteen Royals who had just this epic comeback victory in the Wildcard and they go all the way to the World Series then win it the following year. That's a team to me that had that didn't know any better, right, they had not been to the playoffs in forever, just like these Tigers having in a decade, and you get there and you know who's going to
tell Terry Scoople how to feel today. He's going to go out and pitch as well as he can and as long as he can, and a J. Hinch He's to me like that is a bit of an X factor, having a steady hand at the wheel where he's able to have posted an experience with the guy on the other side. Joe's bought it. He has experienced in a different role, but not as a manager. That leads to me in the Tiger's direction, And maybe that's all you need as a manager who's been there before, who knows
how to push the right button. It's been the right dials and let these players somehow play freely even though it's the biggest games of their to try Tigers lives.
Yeah, I agree one hundred percent with that. Obviously, it doesn't always work out that way. It didn't help Aaron Boone a year ago, right, it didn't help certain guys who have that experience, you know, Dave Roberts, for example. It didn't necessarily help the Dodgers, but I think it's important, and I think A. J. Hinch is one of the
best managers in all of baseball. I'm sure Steven volt will get the American League Manager of the Year, and I'm not crying about that, but I think A. J. Hinch has been a primary reason why Detroit has been able to make this type of push. How do you handicap the American League teams in general, because I think a lot of people feel like it's pretty wide open, considering the lack of health by some teams.
Yeah it is. I'm not looking in the bracket now, but it's the Yankees got the buy was it Cleveland who got the other? By?
Cleveland got the other by? Yep?
Yeah, I mean both those teams stack up so well that the Yankees have. I mean, both teams have obvious flaws. The Guardians don't have a starting rotation. They have a couple of guys who have pitched well lately, Tanner Byby I trust. But beyond that, you know, you know, in Detroit we've seen Matthew Boyd and a lot of years ago, we were seeing great innings from him. Alice Cobb has
been injured and coming back. The Yankees have big questions in the starting rotation because Garrett Cole hasn't been Garrett Cole right. He's coming off a side young season, but also coming more recently off of an elbow injury that
kept him out for a couple of months. And their bullpen they've made it work lately, but they're also kind of operating without a true closer since Clay Holmes has moved out of that role, and they have some guys in this bullpend that you would three years ago have been, you know, in disbelief that they would wind up in a postseason of bullpen for the Yankees. Other than that, you know, we talked about Tigers in Houston. I'm looking around the field. What am I missing? Royals and.
Baltimore Baltimore Oriols Baltimore, So those I have.
I have the Orioles winning that one. But it's two teams that have played five hundred ball or slightly worse since July first, right there. Neither of them are coming in hot. The Royals don't have a bullpen, which is going to play pretty critically here because they do have a great rotation, right We've seen them have maybe the best rotation of anyone in baseball this season as far as one through five. And they're gonna go with Cole Reagan's in game one, that's logo in game two, and
they have more options behind that. But you don't have a setup man, you don't have a you have an eighth inning man, and you're kind of leaving it all up to Luke Lucas Versage their their closer. They got from from the A's and I was just looking this up.
They have. The Royals had the lowest team ops in September by kind of a bike by a mile, worse than the White Dogs, worse than all you know, everybody there at the bottom, and it was it was Bobby Witt with an eight hundred something OLPs, which is, you know, above league average, and no one in the seven hundreds that everyone else is six hundreds of lower, which is well below, well below average. That is a team that runs on you know, a couple of starting pitchers in
Bobby Witt, and that scares me. When you're facing Corbyn Burns, who is good, Dac Efflyn, who I think is certainly capable of winning a postseason game as he has before. And a lineup that, to me in Baltimore one through nine is just significantly stronger, is going to find a way to chip away at what's happening in Kansas City.
Yeah. I think Baltimore has the best lineup in the American League, and outside of Philadelphia, might have the best lineup in baseball. That's just my opinion. I think they're really deep. I don't think Anthony Santander gets nearly enough credit. Yeah, I think I think Baltimore is a scary team. But you know, from a pitching perspective, I think if they look back, they probably wish they would have gone and
gotten some pitching help at the trade deadline. When you in your staff go into these types of you know, editors fortunate to make these predictions. I'm sure a lot of you guys don't like doing it. But when you're forced to do that, do you take into account pitching, hitting, coaching, fielding, what is most important to you? How do you prioritize how a team looks or is or ranks when you make these types of Synopsis of the series.
Yeah, it's a it's a little a little bit of everything. I mean, I picked the Tigers in part because I thought maybe no one was going to pick them, and then you're always opening up yourselves up to get made fun of on social media. Plus I would make my dad happy if I picked the Tigers, And so it turned out a couple of couple of people to pick the Tigers. But you're it's all those things that I'm considering when I when I do it. But also, momentum
is a real thing, right. I give the Mets a much greater chance to win right now than I would have you know, had to been coming in on a five hundred stretch and August and September and coasted down the stretch. There are teams that don't make sense that win in October. That's what we saw last year with the Texas Rangers. So we saw last year with the Arizona Diamondbacks, who very nearly made it back to the
Dance this year. It would have been a dangerous out, I think had they made it back as the highest run scoring team in the Majors. So it is a little bit of everything. As I look at the Tigers, I'm telling you I'm making this decision based on Google because that I mentioned about how important is the win game one. When I'm looking at a team like the Yankees, I'm seeing kind of all the different ways that could
beat you, particularly the Phillies. So I think are the most well rounded team in a field of teams that are imperfect. I picked them as the winner, but I could make an argument for the Yankees, or the Guardians, who have the best ball playing baseball, or the Dodgers. Let's let's count. The more ways you have to beat me, the more likely I am to pick you in that series. And so I think that's sort of the way I look at it.
I like that your publication yesterday had a good one. It said I didn't realize this that Houston they have a pitching staff that is I mean really good, right, I mean it's been really good. But their lineup has been fantastic too. And Hunter Brown owns the league's third lowest ERA since May fifth. That is not a small sample size at all. That's phenomenal.
No, I completely forgot to mention Hoseel today when I listed all those astros earlier. Yeah, this is a team with so much posted and experience. Hunter Brown's had experience but not necessarily one of these critical roles. And how nice to be in opposition. We're able to sort of usher this guy in and that can go around, I think in the postseason and is not walking in blind to the situation.
Hey, just a couple more. I could keep you all day, but I know you've got stuff to do too. A couple more. I truly believe, and I said this just yesterday. Pat Murphy's been done an unbelievable job in Milwaukee. People just it's one of those teams and nobody gives enough credit to They had the most comfortable win of any division winner, whether or not you feel like the division is worth anything, but Pet Murphy's been incredible. How do you handicap the National League?
Yeah, I mean I think it's a good point about Murph. And Cody Stapenhagen, who covers the Tigers for US, just had a future come out on Murphy. That's a really good one. Look when you trade away your eighth or last offseason for two guys who I think will be contributors. Joey Orchiez has helped them this year in deal Hall. They anticipate will down the road, but really not not two guys who I think are making or breaking the season.
That's your eighth there. You just gave away for one year, and then you lose your manager, which is a large record contract with the Cubs, and you're able to backfill with Murphy, who is an extremely beloved figure in coaching circles and was a long time before he got this job, and you basically end up with the same results despite the fact you lose Christian Yellis, who's having a great season.
You don't have Devin Williams, your incredible closer for half the year, and your rotation has made up of Freddie Peralta, who has been a known friend and trusted agent of the Brewers' rotation for a bit. But you don't have your two or three from last year, or two of your top three pitchers, and you're making it work with Tobias Myers, who is a rookie, and a couple of veterans they brought in this year, like a handful of different veterans who are we're not doing particularly well elsewhere.
The Brewers just have a way of figuring that out and have a bullpen that rivaled I think only the only the Indians and the Guardians apologize in terms of depths of that bullpen and the impact they can have on a series like this. So I have Milwaukee winning their series. There, help me up with the matchups. I'm going a blank on them.
Well, you've got the Mets going up, you got the Braves going up against the pod Rays, the Mets going up against the Brewers.
Yeah, so I have I have Brewers over Mets. But that's the one I could see more likely to flip the Mets taking now one. They're playing such good baseball lately, and they don't have a great road pitching staff. You know, I ranked them as the worst, the second worst among the playoffs field, the worst National League a couple of weeks ago. But the truth is, if Sean Man and I and and Louis Everarino can pitch the way they have, uh and they you know, you only need a couple
of bullpen arms to finish the game. And they have Edwin Diaz who has been one of the best closers in baseball. But I do have I do have the
Brewers in that one. As far as the Braves Podrays, I think I think the Braves are just I have won too many losses, right now in terms of what's available on the roster, They've been without basically everybody at some point in the season, but they're currently without Austin Riley, they're all star third baseman, and uh, you know the the m V p Ronald Lecunr, who's they're both going
to be out for the playoffs. And now Chris Sale was supposed to start the elimination game on Monday, and instead they had to turn to a bulk bullpen arm Grant Holmes because Sale is dealing with some sort of injury which we could sort of see coming right. His velocity has been down lately, his stuff's been take worse, and now his available availabilities in question, and I just think too many questions going on. Let the Braves have.
Plus put on top of that, they're exhausted. They just had to play eighteen and on Monday that were all critically important that they pitched. They had You had to pitch in the first game as if you were about to win that game, and take it easy in the second, and all of a sudden, you know, a couple of incredible mets comes back come back there made it so that both games were more vital to get into the postseason.
So the Padres are so deep in that pitching staff, and they have the sort of stars in the lineup that I think can carry them. But I think the Padres are going to probably make pretty quick work here as long as they can get to Max Freed. I think probably winning two games.
Yeah, I don't disagree with that, and that would set up another shot at the Dodgers. Quick thought before I let you go, and I only got a minute. Pete Rose, the loss of Pete Rose. I just love the way he played the game. I understand what his legacy reads, not just all time hits leader, but also banned for life from baseball, but as a player, as a seventeen time All Star in twenty four year Vet, what's your lasting impression of your knowledge about Pete Rose.
Yeah, well, I wasn't born during his career, and I haven't been in the business since he was really like in the headlines for anything relevant. But you know, I was doing a story last night, just a roundup of people's reactions to his death, and it's incredible the list of accomplishments and not all I mean, imagine the world in which a player coach is still a player manager is still a thing. Three thousand hits. I just talked to Wade Boggs the other day. Three thousand hits and
is an incredible thing. You can you know you're a Hall of Famer because of it. Four thousand hits. There's nothing like it to play for twenty four years, you know, looking like an average guy. He didn't look like a spectacular athlete, but he just knew how to put back to ball and get on base and hustle like nobody else. It's the video clips are pretty incredible to watch, even though I didn't get to watch it live.
Yeah. I don't know if there's ever been a more appropriate nickname for any athlete in any sport than Charlie Hustle for Pete Rose stephen Nesbit. We know how much you hustle. We appreciate all your work, appreciate the knowledge here this morning. Continued success at the athletic and thanks for your time today. Enjoy the playoffs
Thanks to Peter