Ryan McBeth - Intelligence Analyst, Novelist, Content Creator - podcast episode cover

Ryan McBeth - Intelligence Analyst, Novelist, Content Creator

Aug 16, 20251 hr 23 minEp. 82
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Episode description

Ryan and I discuss current events as we tackle the tensions in the Middle East, influencers, Revisionist History, Ukraine, and China's ultimate goal. This a great conversation for anybody wanting an update on the current geopolitical tensions and what to expect next.

Watch the video version of this episode on YouTube and Rumble:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ttYJ031gNMU&t=4558s

https://rumble.com/v6w2cjw-ryan-mcbeth-intelligence-analyst-novelist-content-creator.html

Chapters:

00:00:00 - Intro
00:01:10 - Iranian Sleeper Cells - Should We be Concerned?
00:05:18 - Get on with Our Lives or Terrorists Win
00:06:38 - Israel / Gaza - Has Israel Gone to Far?
00:10:06 - Is Israel Really Stopping Aid into Gaza?
00:11:42 - Internal Palestinian Tribal Conflicts
00:14:53 - Afghanistan
00:17:11 - Should the U.S. stay out of the Middle East?
00:20:17 - The anti-America Narrative
00:25:26 - Middle Eastern Conflict - A Vicious Cycle
00:29:40 - Iran - Use of Terrorist Proxies due to Weak Military
00:35:23 - Iranian Lack of Air Dominance - Signs of Military Inferiority
00:38:05 - Russia and China leave Iran to stand on It's Own
00:39:18 - Should the USA let Israel stand on thier Own?
00:42:49 - Israel - A Strategic Ally for the U.S.
00:45:22 - Understanding the "America Bad" Narrative - Ryan's Theory
00:49:13 - My Theory - Generational Gap and Revisionist History
00:51:50 - Remembering 9/11 - Today's Perceptions vs Yesterday's Reality
00:53:41 - What's next in the Middle East - Israel vs Iran
00:55:49 - Did We Narrowly Avoid WW3 - The Threat of Nuclear Weapons
01:01:21 - Israel Bombing Hospitals - Truth or Propaganda
01:05:08 - Media and Influencers - Embellishing the Story
01:06:41 - Short Attention Culture
01:10:16 - Trump's Support for Ukraine - Sending a Message to Adversaries
01:12:48 - Munitions and Money - Is it enough for Ukraine?
01:15:26 - Will Putin Back Off - Russia on the verge of Collapse
01:17:36 - Russia can't Stop - The War Time Economy
01:21:19 - Will Russia turn on Putin?

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Transcript

Intro / Opening

Speaker 1

All right, Ryan macbeth, thank you for being back on the show. I feel this is a do over with you because the first time I try to do a video episode and I had technical difficulties, so I felt bad about that, although the audio episode did do pretty well by the way, But this time I'm glad to have you on video since I mean, your your audience

based is YouTube and that's what you do. You specialize and you're making like very informative, awesome videos, and you do deep dives, and you have a way of explaining it in a way that people can just understand it without feeling like they have to go to school. You know. He basically removed that difficulty out and say, look, let me break it down easy for you to digest, and this is what's really going on. So I'm glad to

have this again with you in video format. I just they need to see you, they really do to get the whole thing. So since we last talked, the first time we talked, were talking about was going on in Ukraine. I do want to get to that because there's new developments and I know you made a video recently about that, and then you also made another video about what was going on with Israel, what's going on in Gaza, and

that whole issue as well. So let's start there, if you don't mind, Because you know, after the bombing, the

Iranian Sleeper Cells - Should We be Concerned?

US sent their B two bombers and whatnot, and we basically bomb nuclear facilities in Iran. I ran, surprisingly to me, by the way, to me, backed off and I didn't expect that they would, but they did. They did settle down a bit. A lot of people were really well I was. I know you were, because I know you mentioned it. But people are concerned that there might be sleeper cells here in the US that might be activated

and retaliation to that. I want to start with that, with that first, and see what you think, you know, coming from your perspective, because I don't. I don't believe it's over. I really don't. I think that that is a reality that's extremely plausible. I believe that that is a thing that we will have to face. And I have done the data. I've done the dive Inpu off the border, and I know that this year alone, at least until May, there was about seven hundred and fifty

two or somewhere around there. I don't have the exact but it was like seven fifty two in terms of terrorists that they knew about that they detained when I broke it down, was enough to put fifteen terrorists in every state of the United States of America. And that's not counting the ones they don't know about. So what do you think about that situation? So it would be concerned?

Should the average American citizen be vigilant, be watching out for that or at least have an idea that, yeah, it could go bad.

Speaker 2

So well, that's a tough one because it feels like I'm in two thousand and two. Right, are we are we red? Are we yellow? Or we blue? Or we green? Is it a high alert day? Is it a low alert day? Right? That's a really good question. You know, I don't think the average American should be concerned in the sense that there's really not a lot you can

do to prevent it. But in general, the security services of the US need to be concerned about it, mainly because, and I don't want to get into politics, but for about four years our borders were essentially wide open. We don't necessarily know who's here, and instead of you know, arresting people at home depot, maybe we should be kind of looking for bad guys. I think kind of the problem here is that arresting people at home depot is good for the president's base, and arresting bad guys is

hard and takes time. Right, you don't have that immediate payoff, So it's kind of easy to see what someone might might choose to do, even though finding the bad guys could eventually stops for a teris incident. When it comes to Iran, I think I don't want to say they've learned their lesson, because they haven't learned their lesson. They're in a weird place right now. We can get into that when it comes to funding and how they're going

to rebuild their military. But essentially, I would if I were part of the security services, I would be concerned about a terist start within the United States that might not activate now but could activate in the future. So the average person knows security services, yes.

Speaker 1

Right, I feel the same way. I just well, I'm agreeing with you, But there's also that side of me that is like, well, I'm a civilian, like, what's the possibility what might I have to go through if that did come to it? And interestingly enough, you know, we had the instant Colorado where you know, we had the extremists that burned a few Cherish people, right, and then they recently all so arrested a few Iranians that they I don't know the exact details, but they're said to

be terrorists or non terroists that they deported. That was also just just happened recently. So yeah, it is a real thing. But I understand what you're saying. You know, that's that's for security forces to deal with, and they should be dealing with that. So in your opinion, maybe

Get on with Our Lives or Terrorists Win

we should just you know, hey, be aware, but move on, live on, right.

Speaker 2

Yeah, I mean, God, again, it sounds like it's it's two thousand and two. If we don't just continue to live our lives, terrorists win, right, right. And I even remember when I want to say it was in god, November October of two thousand and one, President Bush said go buy something. Stop watching television and go to the store and buy something. And I remember only I was dating this for all the time, and I went and I bought her like a six hundred dollars eleven jacket.

You know, I did my part for the economy, you know, because like our economy was actually suffering because people were hiding inside their homes watching the news.

Speaker 1

Right, they were, they were they they weren't outdoors.

Speaker 2

Yeah.

Speaker 1

Yeah.

Speaker 2

There was a great South Park episode about that where the I think Randy is sitting on the couch and his eyes are just wide and how like, and uh yeah, I mean it's we have to live our lite. Ye, fair enough. If we live in fear, then the terrorists really do win.

Speaker 1

Yeah, hence terrorism, right yeah, okay, fair enough on that.

Israel / Gaza - Has Israel Gone to Far?

What about what about your thoughts on what's going on in Gaza? I mean, it's we're getting really into what are getting close to two years or so or about two years correct, so we're run there? What what is what is your thoughts on on how that is being handled by Israel at the moment. And the reason I asked as we because the sentiment is a lot of people will agree that they had a right to do what they had to do. I mean, I saw your video where you said you didn't forget October seventh. I

didn't either. Most people shouldn't have forgot about that, do you think in your in your opinion and this isn't this is just an opinion opinion spot, but do you think Israel is going a little too far or are they trying to deal with the situation where it's a matter of geography because it's not a very big place, not a very big place for you know, Hamas, for example, to spread out and hide. And I've seen that they're pretty much just using the people as shields and they're

basically their captain. They can't necessarily leave either. But at the same time, do you believe Israel should probably try a different tactic. Are they going a bit too far at this point or are they just doing what they have to do.

Speaker 2

So one of the things that Israel has done is they've started to create a militious and these militias are made up of Palestinians who no longer want Hamas in charge, and they give them guns and they say, okay, get at it, because you know, these guys, they know where the hostages are. They no, they know where Hamas is located. So it's one of those things where it's like, all right, you know, this is kind of how we have to do this. And some of these these guys, they're honestly

got criminal gangs, right, they're criminal gangs. But again, to kind of go back to the era of Donald Rumsfeld. You go to war if the army have not the army you want or you wish you had at a later date. So what choice do you have, right they you know, those are the allies that are willing to fight, So I guess we kind of have to stick with those allies. So they're doing that. They are getting aid in,

which is good. I believe they control about sixty to sixty five percent of Gaza and they will ideally that the ceasefire is coming up. Supposedly there may be a ceasefire soon where most will return. I believe, Oh my, this is kind of put me on the on the spot. I believe there are forty remaining hostages and twenty two I think are still alive. Something like that. There's fifty hostages remaining and we know that twenty two are still alive.

So you know, I believe the ceasefire gives ten hostages back. And I can't even imagine what condition the hostages are, right, I mean, it must be absolute hell on earth, right, because God knows where they're getting fed, right, Like, where are these people getting food to feed these hosages? So they must be at the point of starvation. Right, No, that's not.

Speaker 1

You're not in good shape whatsoever.

Speaker 2

Yeah, they can't be, but they can't.

Speaker 1

You dressed this a little bit. But what about what

Is Israel Really Stopping Aid into Gaza?

about what's going around mostly on social media or you know, we are the media now, right, social media? But what about what was being said of Israel willingly holding back supplies, right and aid and killing people who are trying to get aid? Because from the reports I've seen, and you know way more than I do. You have more access, but from the reports that I've seen, it's it's really not necessarily the case. It's Hamas intercepting a lot of these you know, a lot of this aid and then

trying to redistribute or sell it back to their own people. Yeah, so how much of it is true that Israel is actually doing this versus it's just propaganda being spread by Hamas?

Speaker 2

That's uh, that's an excellent question. And uh, you know, I got to tell you that in some cases, if if Israelies are rushed by people and they feel threatened, they're going to open fires. Right, That's just kind of the way it is. If you feel threatened, then well you gotta do what you gotta do to stop the threat. That being said, you know, for the most part, Israel is getting aid in. It seems like it is mostly successful. I want to say it's about one hundred and fifty

trucks per day roughly. But one of the issues is the security situation. That's why you want to work with these Palestinians. The criminal gangs who will hopefully take that food and distribute it. Now they're probably distributing it in a way that makes their gang more powerful. That one

Internal Palestinian Tribal Conflicts

of the big issues that a lot of people don't talk about. This is actually the case in Africa as well, is you know, we say Palestinians, but there are tribes within Palestinians, and I'm trying to I'm actually trying to google it right now. All the but like you know, there's there's different plans and we tend to think of, oh, here's Palestinians. We tend to think of Arabs in general. There's Arabs, but there's different plans and factions and families

within those societies. And that's why, like democracy doesn't always work quite right because like let's say you get hired onto the police force, You're going to try to get your cousin hired. He's part of your plan, he's part of your family. And that's how you end up with a mostly Shia police force in Iraq. Right, That's just kind of how that part of the world works because a lot of it is still tribal, right, and we just don't have any concept of that inside the United States.

Speaker 1

No, we don't. I was trying to look it up while you're talking. I can't. I can't find like a definite number. But it does does echo exactly what you're saying. A lot of it is made up by extended families throughout the.

Speaker 2

Generation Sucsans was. Yeah, there was exact sorts of plans, and you know, and this happened in Afghanistan. Didn't happen to me personally, but I know a guy. I know a guy right who who said that they built a like a water uh, like a irrigation system for this one town, and this other town went and blew it up because like they thought they should get it first.

And it's like we, you know, and yeah, these tribal politics, man, you know, like and we kind of thought like, all right, well, we're gonna go to Afghanistan, We're gonna create Jeffersonian democracy, and you know, we just kind of ran into that tribal issue. You know, for the longest time. You know, Ahmad Karzai was essentially mayor of Kabble, right, he was president,

but he was Breck. You step outside of Cobble, you might as well be stepping back into the year two thousand while over the year seven hundred, depending on the

definition you want to go through here. Yeah, but yeah, the tribal thing is it's just not something that that we can ignore and uh, it's uh, it's something that we have to think about whenever dealing with these societies where when we look at it and go, well, we gave you this freedom, how come you're not well because you put this other tribe in charge, not my tribe, so I have to fight this other tribe. God's Yeah.

Speaker 1

Our misunderstanding of the of the region and its history, as just as you said, between tribes has been an issue. But I'm going to I'm going to get to some before we move on. I'm going to get to something that that touches on because you know, you mentioned Afghanistan,

Afghanistan

like when when we went in there around two thousand and one, right, or War on Terror but before that, we helped to supply the rebels and help push back against the Soviets at that time. And a lot of people don't even know this, but Afghanistan they went through a period where they were literally a communist country. I was backed by the Soviets before the Soviets invaded in seventy eight or seventy nine. So and before that, they

weren't even in Islama State. They were a monarchy. They ran by, you know, under the rule of a monarchy. You know, at that time, Islam wasn't even a governing body. It was literally just a religion, you know, and it was spread out among different tribes.

Speaker 2

But yeah, they're absolutely right, and there are people who were wearing many skirts and kabble, you.

Speaker 1

Know, wouldn't But the reason I brought that up is because you bring up a You brought up Afghanistan, and the US gets the blame for creating these terrorist organizations all the time. If it wasn't for US, this wouldn't have happened. Right, if we didn't back Israel, nobody would hate Israel or hate the United States, which which is false. They're still going to have an issue with Israel. They always have but the reality is, you know, like I just did a deep dive on this the other day.

Islamic let me correct myself. Extreme Islamist terrorism has been around in that region for thirteen hundred years literally, and it's not a new concept. And primarily it was terrorism against other Muslims. It wasn't about being against the West. It was about power and control, subjecting the other people that they believe didn't hold up or lived to the standards of Islam, at least to their extreme view of

it anyway. So it's a long history of terrorism and a religious war within the people that literally practiced the same religion, which is crazy. And you know, we always see in the media how the Western powers are to blame for the situation. The United States is to blame, not We're not infallible at all. We did things that we probably shouldn't have. We don't have a full understanding of why we should be there. We just knew that, hey,

we're going to spread democracy and free the people. But there was way more to the story than just that. So it's it's like, what do you say to those

Should the U.S. stay out of the Middle East?

who always always believe that we should just not ever get involved, Should we not ever involved, or we are we just perpetuating perpetuating the problem, or is it something that we really should always have a bit of a hand in to make sure it doesn't get too out of control as far as our interests are concerned, or maybe in the world's interest.

Speaker 2

Well, the question kind of comes up as before we get involved, what is the definition of when okay? And

that's I did a video about that. Essentially it was about how how Vietnam can kind of parallel what the conflict with China might look like in the sense that if we go into Taiwan without a full understanding with but win actually means we're gonna have a lot of trouble because the Yeah, the idea behind Robert McNamara during Vietnam was well, we're gonna, we're gonna, we're gonna apply graduated pressure until they realize that all right, well we

probably can't win against the United States, so we're just gonna come to the peace table. And that didn't seem to work, right, like you know Vietnam, you know, Vietnam just are oh, we can wait these guys out. That's exactly what they did, right, So yeah, you know it's by that that's a. I think before getting involved any place, we should kind of get that definition of win, Like what does definitely what what does win actually look like? If you if you take a look at the Huthies,

what does win mean? Does it mean regime change? Does it mean the who aren't capable of launching attacks against the against shipping in the Red Sea anymore? Does it mean treading them to the point where the loyalists I used to say the loyalists, but the people in the western half of the Yemen would be able to actually fight back against the hoo Thies because right now, Yemen's

kind of a fractured state. The Hoopies are just one tribe, right, they are a tribe that are inside of Yemen, and you know they were able to take over a good portion of the western half. So what does win mean? Right? So that's kind of the direction that you should probably go in. It's before you get involved in any kind of conflict to figure out what win actually means.

Speaker 1

So literally, a better understanding of the area in the situation, Like what's the impact of our involvement?

Speaker 2

Right?

Speaker 1

Yeah, I get where you're coming from. As far as what is a win? I mean, it's basically defining what the mission is, right and why are we here? Really, I don't think we ever know the whole story. But at the same time, I mean, I just I guess it's really about do you do you believe that? Not

The anti-America Narrative

that I wouldn't say the world, it's it's more like media, right, there's this rhetoric in this, this whole movement of you know, America bad, anti America, America needs to be dismantled, America needs to go away because everything we do just makes the world turn to shit. And I don't believe that at all. I really don't. So I want to get your opinion on that, and you know where that's coming from, I mean, outside of obvious propaganda that's being spread to

divide us. What do you think about what's going on right now with that, with that push for that talking point about America just being the enemy of the world, or rather every time we get involved, we just create a worse situation.

Speaker 2

Boy, that's a very good question, you know, I think. Yeah, back after the terrorist attacks, one of the excuses we kind of had was, well, they hate our freedoms, and I think that some people they they look at their government and they go like, man, my government is a government for the people in charge. Right, They don't think like you look at an Arab spring, Well, how did Arab spring start? Well, it's started because there was a fruit cart vendor who didn't have the money to pay

for a license for his fruit cart. And he also didn't have the money to pay for a bribe to this policewoman who kept harassing him. Right, and so what does this guy do? Well, he sells fruit illegally and then the police come and smashes fruit cart. Now, then he goes and sets himself on fire in protest. Right. So, I think that you have people who they don't understand why their government treats them the way they do. And they look at America and it's this amazing kind of

why does ever want to come here? They hate us so much? But I would bet you if you went to an average Palestinian and said would you like to come to America, They'd be on the next fricking flight as long as they can bring their family with, right, Right, they like we there is this magical part of America where, for the most part, we really do live in a security. We live in a society where we do generally follow laws.

Most people do pay their taxes. Most police aren't really corrupt, at least not to the extent that you know, you can pay a bribe to get out of the ticket or something like that. Right, Like, I can't even imagine what would happen to me if I tried. You know, if the police came and I held out one hundred dollars bill, probably wouldn't go, right. They probably arrestd me for for trying to bribe them. Right right now, I'm

sure there is corruption, right we saw that. He saw that in New York, Yes, with Mary Eric Adams, who like, let me do all these favors for Turkey, and you know, I get to fly to Turkey for fifty dollars whatever, you know, Like for Menendez, that was always a good one, Robert Menz It's.

Speaker 1

Like, I mean, we'll always be corrected bars and it's never to the level that we see in these other third work countries for example, right.

Speaker 2

Now, not even close. Like if I want to start a business here in the US, I have a I have an Indian friend of mine and he was telling me how great the US is, How like this guy he moved from India to Texas and like now he wears a cowboy hat, he owns a gun, he's driving

a Ford f one fifty. Like America has this way of just turning evil into Americans, right, And he told me, like how like in India, if you want to start a busines, you got to go pay a bribe to someone, and then you go to another agency and you gotta pay another bribe, and everything's set up so that everyone kind of gets their palms greased on the way to

starting this business. And in America, if I want to start a business, I literally go on to the State of Maryland website and I pay fifty dollars and I start an LLC.

Speaker 1

Literally, just go online, you can start one.

Speaker 2

And that I think that is for the most part, the engine of our growth, the engine of our success. It's that people can just you want to start a business, you want to start cleaning business, You just all right, you'll get some fabulous so get some rags, get some buckets, form the LLC poof you just started a business. And I think that people in some other countries they look at America and they don't they don't get it. They don't understand, like, how come they're successful, but we're not.

And they may realize like, oh, it's because our leaders are corrupt, but they can't fix that. So it's just kind of it might be easier to blame America of your problems than it is to kind of look internally right, because you can't fix that. The only way you fix that is the way the Syrians did. Now, a lot of Assyrians died to make that happen.

Speaker 1

The thing with the well, so I see where you come from. I agree with that. But the reality is

Middle Eastern Conflict - A Vicious Cycle

the Middle East is always, always had had some kind of conflict, and I know, as you stated before, a lot of it is tribal. It's like that area has never well, we consider it modernization, right, because Western culture is just completely different. We always look at them as

not progressing there. They seem to be very traditional in their ways after all these years, and and what happens is from what I see, I may be wrong, and that's why you're here, you know, correct me, But what I see is as soon as as soon as one faction rises right on behalf of the people, it's always starts out as on behalf of the people by the people, and they want to overthrow the regime that becomes authoritarian or dictator like, and then they themselves become the same

thing they overthrew. It's almost like once they have power, it becomes so infectious that they just keep repeating the cycle. What is your opinion on why that happens. Is it literally just always because it's a tribal thing, or is it because they're they're just they're just so used to not being able to have any kind of power or control whatsoever, that once they have it, it's like it just gets to their head. They just can't they can't stop. They must take it all out at that point. Well,

that that's a fantastic question. You know, maybe I look at you, like at George Washington. Probably out of the smartest thing George Washington ever did was quit after two terms, right, right, that just kind of set the precedent. And we we've had this precedent for two hundred and fifty years. While a little bit less years, we've had this precedent.

Speaker 2

Where for the most part we have this peaceful transition of power, right and for the most part elected officials at least they try their best to do the right thing, you know, at least that they're answerable to their constituents because if they don't answer to their constituents, they get unelected.

And uh, you know the in in some societies, you don't necessarily see that they're they're when if you take a look at sad on the Saints, Iraq, there's only one party that was the Bath Party, right, and I guess it was nominally a democracy. I mean I could say you, I mean you could you could technically iron as a democracy if you want to get technical. They do elect their leaders, right, they do that. I think it's required in their constitution that one Jew and one

Christian be in parliament for representations. They're not. It's not called the parliament. I can't remember the dar name of their governance, their governor structure right now. But yeah, so there's there's that, right, like there are nominally democracies. But when you get to the point where you can't actually affect change, I think that that just drives some people absolutely nuts.

Speaker 1

So it's to me almost like a really it's a false sense of democracy. I mean, when you have the same leader year after year after year, I mean some of these people going twelve years, twenty years, I mean, hell, Russia's allegedly, you know, they're elected democratically. Putin's been there for I couldn't even I just been there for so long.

Speaker 2

I I want to say since two thousands now, but weren't two thousand because he was he was president I think twice, and then Medev Medievev took over and then Putin took over again.

Speaker 1

So yeah, but he's been there at least twenty at least twenty two to twenty somewhere between twenty two twenty five years that I don't remember the exact date he became into power, but it's around that. You know, it's been two decade. Over two decades, right, But we we see the situation where, you know, these leaders that come into power, don't they just don't want to relinquish it.

And when the when the when they feel that there's change in the air, it seems like that's when they start turning the screw to their own people and then applying, applying the fear right to keep them in line. And since you did bring up Iran, so the thing is

Iran - Use of Terrorist Proxies due to Weak Military

the thing we I need to understand about Iran is they're they're they're their own nation. They do command respect for who they are there right now, they've been the leading supporter of terrorism since nineteen eighty four, at least officially that's how they were labeled, right.

Speaker 2

Since Prizes nineteen seventy nine, well.

Speaker 1

Before, but officially nineteen eighty four. Is when they're like, hey, you know, these guys are arg just state as supporter of terrorism?

Speaker 2

Now?

Speaker 1

Is is theirs necessarily? Do you think a religious war? Or is it just is that just nothing but a cover for their ultimate goal of being the power in the region because they used proxies to do their own bidding, Like they're not directly going out and attacking people and causing all of this, all of this harm and and all this chaos. You know, they get they get to have like the Mafia's that right, the boss would always have a buffer, so that their buffer has always been,

you know, like these proxies. So how do we how do we hold a country like that accountable for doing those things? You can easily deny they never had direct involvement because they never really did anything except for recently between what happened with Israel and Iran, you know, with the bombings and but not the missiles. But before they weren't always recon fault. So so how should that be approach? Like, how how were they to be held accountable for their actions?

But at the same time we allow them to thrive and develop and continue to grow as a society.

Speaker 2

Well, you bomb them. You did exactly what I look. I've often said, like you got, we got as a nation. We have to get back to our core competencies. And we're not very good at nation building, but we are really good at a bombing piece like that. That's one of the things where we really excel at. It's been that way since scott when Reagan operational Dorado Canyon, when we realized Kadafi was his terrorist leader. Uh. He blew up uh pan Am he pan Am flight over locker

room in Scotland. He was helping fund the ira He was helping fund Uh. There was an operation uh to Iranian affiliated terrorists who blew up a disco in Berlin. I want to say it was Berlin. They killed a

couple of US service members. There isn't even a situation where Easter and East Germany they caught some I want to say it was Iranian terrorists trying to smuggle a bomb on board and the bomb wasn't for the East German flight, it was going someplace else, and they're going to put the bomb on that plane, and the East Germans turn them in. They don't want those idiots in

their country either, right, you know. But once we bombed, once we bombed uh Libya, Kadelfi shut up for a good let's say ten twelve years, yeah, roughly, you know. And look, the reason Iran uses proxies is that it's cheap, and that's actually probably one of the reasons why they lost their air battle against Israel. You know, Iran, they can't build an aircraft carrier, they can't build an ICBM and are continental ballistic missile that can reach the United States.

But what they can do is fun terrorist organizations around the globe that can perform kinetic actions that can give them leverage over certain areas of the world like Lebanon, the Houkis, and Yemen Hasblahamas, right, so they can do that. And what's interesting is that I think that the reason Iran kind of failed against these Israeli attacks isn't just the skill of the Israeli air force, which is undeniably skillful, but they were kind of putting so many eggs in

the IRGC and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard corner basket. They were funding terrorist organizations all over the world that they were kind of neglecting the RSH. They were neglecting their own military, and you can see that just by looking at their jet fighters. I mean the jet fighters remains are from the nineteen seventies. I'm sure there's been some upgrades. And supposedly Iran they want to purchase a couple of suit thirty four's from Russia, like a deal went through

to purchase these to thirty fours. I think they've got a single suit thirty four. I think they've got a single one because Russia is like, yeah, we kind of need these right now, no surprise, right. And a couple of years ago, Russia helped Ron launch a satellite and UH I remember the spy satellite, and they said to Iran like, we're going to use this for a little while. Consider it a consider it a feet right, So yeah, the the UH I think that Iran's way to affect

changes through the proxies, which was cheap. But for every proxy that you fund with a dollar, it's one less dollar that you can fund your conventional mil military with and that's how you get into a situation where you have this military that is essentially very brittal. Right, they can't even destroy Israeli planes coming into their own country, right, they can't launch sorties against Israeli planes that are flying into their own country. I think Israel established air dominant

Iranian Lack of Air Dominance - Signs of Military Inferiority

and then three to five days to the point where they're operating during the daytime, which is absolute madness. Yeah, it's crazy.

Speaker 1

They obviously didn't have any fear of what Iran could do.

Speaker 2

No, No, they didn't have any fear. And that's kind of not how it's supposed to be. Like, you're supposed to have air sovereign to be over your own country, and after three to five days, I believe Iran didn't. That's a pretty big issue. And that's I think it's directly because they funded their proxies so much. There's essentially no money left over for their conventional forces, the surface,

their missile forces, their air force. So you're you're you're running how to reduce capacity, and then you actually get into that fight and now you get smacked around by a country that's twenty times smaller than you.

Speaker 1

It's right, it's interesting, but you brought up Russia because the what I've seen, what I've seen happen with Iran, so out out the gate right, Pakistan is like, oh, we support Iran and we will back them and if we have to, we'll launch a nuclear weapon if we need to. So they Iran has these I don't even know if they're real allies or pseudo allies because Russia is supposed to be an ally. But what we've seen is we've never really seen Russia really come to their

need necessarily. I know, Iran helped Russia in the in the Ukraine War by sending them like I think it was like technology like drones, different things.

Speaker 2

Yeah, sad drones, okay.

Speaker 1

And and then same thing with China. China supposed he you know, says hey, they also stand by Iran, but China doing what China does. They haven't really done much or said anything outside of just saying we support a run. After the bombings, everyone got quiet. So I don't know if that's a testament to still, you know, how strong the US really is in the world stage that people actually saw that, Okay, we're not we're not sleeping anymore.

We will take care of things if we have to, or if Iran their true colors just came out and this whole thing has just been you know, one giant charad really, you know, in terms of what Iran can really do and what power they really have.

Speaker 2

Yeah, I mean, look, if you're Russia, what exactly are you going to do right now to support Iran? Much like that's that mean, like can you send aircraft? But you kind of need those aircraft right, So oh what do you do? Because I don't really have an answer.

Speaker 1

Oh no, no, I get it. It's just it just seems

Russia and China leave Iran to stand on It's Own

it just seems like they don't really have the allies they think they do. You know, as soon as as soon as the US did step into back Israel, which we always do, which it's gonna be another question for you, but it seemed like everybody just kind of stepped back. They just didn't want to get involved anymore. In my opinion, I think China is just watching all these conflicts, and just while they're doing that, they're testing the waters over there with Taiwan. Sorry Taiwan. I don't know why I

said Taiwan. So Taiwan and also you know, also the Philippines and just recently, they basically laser targeted a German I think with a helicopter or some military craft when they were having an exercise out there. So to me, I think China is saying what people want to hear, while at the same time plotting to do what they want to do in the region. And I mean, I

know they're end goal is to eventually take Taiwan. But you know, if Russia You're correct, obviously, it's like they don't have any means to really separate and and fight two wars. They just can't. I mean, they're barely even able to handle what's going on in Ukraine right now, and that's a much smaller country, you know, So I

Should the USA let Israel stand on thier Own?

get you now. As far as Israel and Irando, I always ask I've asked a question by you know, two other guests that I've had recently, and do you do you believe at some point that Israel needs to stand on their own without knowing that the USA is going to step in?

Speaker 2

Hmm.

Speaker 1

I know we're allies. I'm not saying we shouldn't help our allies, but there have been situations where and historically that they they have done They've done things that have really made it hard, right, especially for US. I mean, if you look at the geopolitical relationships, like what if we're in negotiation with another country or we're trying to do something to where we can improve relations, and then all of a sudden, Israel's another war with somebody you know,

or there's another conflict. How do you feel about that or at least your opinion on that situation.

Speaker 2

Well, usually Israel doesn't necessarily start, right, you could say that, you know, one war that Israel I'm really trying to. I mean, really the only war that hasn't really started was nineteen forty eight, right, so kind of like what do you know, even the Siini can't say was the Siani campaign? Was that? I think that was instigated by Egypt and they were like, well, let's just keep going. You know, let's say when the Egyptian forces are collapsing,

let's just keep going. You know, might as well keep going here. So I usually it seems like other people kind of roll in and and they cause trouble with Israel, and Israel decides to respond, and that's when they have to step in. Now, for the most part, Israel does and on its own when they need a little extra help.

They can call the US for the most part. Like you look at Israel's air force and they were able to do a lot with I think it's eleven fighter eleven fighter squads, right, I think it's three F thirty fives, three F sixteen eyes well one of sixteen e welling laughs, F fifteen. I I think they have two F fifteen c's these squads A fifteen C. I'm trying to do this memory, but I think it's eleven squad.

Speaker 1

Yeah, but it's not a large, not a very large.

Speaker 2

Passive, but it's it's a respectable air force for the Reeds veritably, Yeah, paratively, and you know, like they can usually handle themselves. It's kind of when things got out of control that the US gets called in and you know, normally they don't start it, they shut us all, finished it.

Speaker 1

Well, history is shown they yeah, technically typically do not Typically in tech you don't start it. You're correct.

Speaker 2

Sixty seven sixty seven is a real startup, but only because they saw the Egyptians building up on the border. Right. They essentially took out the Egyptian air force in one day.

Speaker 1

Right, Yeah, they're they're a powerful nation for their size. But it's still do you think we should always have to step in, because that's that's been that's been the rhetoric going around. You know, it's as if we shouldn't support Israel anymore. I think if we're no longer their ally,

Israel - A Strategic Ally for the U.S.

we lose a major position there in terms of an ally military position, everything.

Speaker 2

A major technical position. Same.

Speaker 1

Like.

Speaker 2

Look one of the reasons Israel and the United States when it came to Oman just their guitar guitar a couple of weeks ago, when around launched all dismissiles, We've gotten all that data from Ukrainian intercepts, Like whenever Ukraine intercepts a Russian missile with a Patriot, we get that data, right, So we got a heck of a lot of data on the performance of the Patriot and the performance of the Patriot in Israel. We got a heck of a

lot of data on that, right. One of the things that Israel helped create with US money was the iron Dome syst Well, now we have access to that tech. You know, iron Dome really isn't that useful for us, but we can use some of that tech to develop other systems that might be useful in the future. Another good example is the Trophy system. Trophy system is on I want to say, one hundred and fifty US tanks that are in Germany. Trophy system is kind of like

an iron dome for tanks intercepts incoming rockets. Right, So we have this this tech transfer with with Israel that would be lost if they were no longer allies. So I mean, when you essentially have a country that's in a very bad part of the world's kind of willing to test out some of your weapons for you and bring back the data, wellck, why not do that, right?

Speaker 1

And then we would also lose some of that intelligence as well.

Speaker 2

No, yeah, absolutely so. And plus Israel is a democracy. You know, we need to be able, we need to support democracies around the globe.

Speaker 1

Yeah, you know, I just want to clarify that I that question wasn't to put you on the spot and have you say Israel bad.

Speaker 2

I was just want a.

Speaker 1

Dropeena because you know, there is as I stated earlier, as a sentiment that akabad right where the for the cause of all iron the world? And then now it's like, well, let's not support Israel anymore. Let's just let them do whatever they got to do and stand on their own and then you know, well, at the same time support Ukraine, which was never really an ally. But you know, with that situation, you know, we don't want to see the little guy get taken over by the larger aggressor right

for no reason. So it's just like this whole, this

Understanding the "America Bad" Narrative - Ryan's Theory

whole thing right now, with the way the media is pushing their talking points in their narrative, it's like we're living in an upside down world. And I don't I don't know where it's coming from.

Speaker 2

It.

Speaker 1

I don't know who's who is behind this propaganda. But you know, even on us soil, we have you know, people that are marching for Hamas. I mean, I get supporting the people of Palestine are stuck in the middle of the actual you know, people civilians that are that are being killed because of the decisions made by Hamas. I understand that, but I don't understand how we can get behind to rist organizations to say no, they're actually

the good guy. You know, it's America that's bad. We're the reason that all this is happening.

Speaker 2

I had a whole theory about that.

Speaker 1

Okay, Well, I just won Daro's coming from it is.

Speaker 2

I think I honestly, I think one of the reasons that the US are college students in the United States got so involved with the whole conflicting gaza was that, you know, these are students who for four years three four years, three years at least, they couldn't go to class, they couldn't wear masks, they couldn't go out on the date with a girl. Then all of a sudden, like here's this opportunity to meet other people in real life

on a subject that they're passionate about. I'm kind of reminded of reminded of my old first sergeant when I first joined in nineteen ninety four. My first sergeant was like he told me he was a Vietnam vet. And this guy said, you know, uh what he used to do. He used to work at the Pentagon. After work, he would change into civilian clothes and he would go to the protests and in civilian clothes and like tell the

girls that he was a soldier. And you know, he got he got to sleep with all sorts of girls that way because they thought, like, we're bringing them into our side. So if you're if you're a kid, if you're a boy, right, and you know you, uh, you've never kissed a girl before, and I've been out on a date with a girl before, and here's an opportunity to meet girls in real life. You don't have to worry about a mask, you don't worry about tender and

they're passionate about this thing. Yes, I'll be passionate about this too. Can we go back to your dorm afterwards? Right? So I think I and I I I had, though I don't think I am. I really know, because it's it's it sounds like a very open and shut thing, right. It sounds like one of those things where you can go like, oh, you know, I'll do this thing and I'll get this girl, and you know, I'll be able to socialize with people. I'll be able to feel a

part of something. I think a lot of these kids, you know, if you're if you're wearing a mask in high school for three years and you can't do organized sports, so you can't go to homecoming dance because of COVID, and then you go to college and now you have all this freedom and look at all the cool kids

are out here protesting. I'm going to go protest as well. Right, Yeah, I think a lot of it was was just I don't want to say, and there are some people who might feel genuinely bad, but I would not be surprised if there were a lot of kids I did a whole video about this who just wanted to make friends and this was just an easy way to do that.

Speaker 1

That's that's yeah, I mean, I'm that can it seems to track. I have another I have another person that mentioned that some of this support also is we have,

My Theory - Generational Gap and Revisionist History

you know, generations removed from at least the atrocities that we saw right with September eleventh, that don't understand what the US went through. And then you know, this new generation of people, these younger people in their lifetime hasn't haven't really seen the effects of true terrorism or or not even not on a broad scale like it used to be. It never really went away, but it wasn't as bad now as it used to be until recently.

Now we're looking at this war between you know, Hamas and Israel, and this is the first time they've been able to see a conflict like this of this scale, and they don't know what to make of it. They don't know how to make the connection as to why amass is considered bad. You know, who really is Palestine? Elin's not a nation, you know, they were region. They were always referred to as a region, a region that encompassed a lot of other tribes and nations, not nations,

but you know, tribes and other cultures together. It was always considered region, not a nation. So they don't get that, they don't understand that, they can't make the connection, so they just see, oh, this is bad, there's no reason this war should be happening. And then you also have Ukraine going on. But it seems like everybody, really the younger people, really attach themselves to this Palestinian or Palestine

versus Israel hoss Israel war. And I think it's because they just don't understand or see what is behind it all, Like what is the true history, not just what they hear, Because it seems like this is really what pisses me off lately. Ryan. I don't know if you agree, but it seems like we're living through a period of revisionist history. You know, we got like you don't have to say anything because I know you can't, but I'll just say, you have guys like this martyr made guy who believe

suddenly that Hitler's a good guy. You know, he wasn't all that bad and he said a few things, but all in all, his intent was good. And you know, Winston Churchill was the bad guy, and if it wasn't Winston Churchill, we wouldn't have had to go to war with Germany, et cetera. And it just makes you scratch your heads, like where is all this revisionist history stuff

coming from? You know, it's really easy to be, you know, twenty thirty forty years removed from something and then go back and say, well, it should have been done this way. You didn't live through it, You didn't understand what was really happening. So I believe that could also be what's going on right now. You know, we have a generation of people that have never really had to deal with this situation, and right now, with the way social media is,

it's so prevalent you cannot turn it off. You know, every time you turn your phone on, it's another headline, it's another picture, it's another video, So that's fake. But still.

Remembering 9/11 - Today's Perceptions vs Yesterday's Reality

Speaker 2

I recall how there is this one college professor of an interview with him, and he's starting to realize that a lot of his students have no real concept of September eleventh, no, no actual concept of what happened that day, and so he'll actually play the phone calls from the tower,

he play the video footage. He'll show like the horror of that day, and that kind of brings it home for a lot of these people who who were hearing their you know love you know, people call their loved ones and say goodbye, right leaving a message on an answering machine, having to say goodbye, which is like, God, I remember that day. That was a horrible, horrible day. Yeah. Yeah, that's one of those everybody remembers where they were kind

of day. Everybody, everybody remembers where they were. Yeah, I got I remember just uh, you know, we were all like ready to go. Let's go. Let's go kill who were supposed to kill. I don't know, let's just go.

Speaker 1

It was one of those it didn't matter if you were in the military or civilian. Everybody was ready to go, pick up a pitchfork whatever. It was like, Hey, we're going to defend our soil. Yeah, and I don't know if we It's just it's just funny how throughout the years, we just lose that connection, you know, as as being Americans and being proud of who we are as a people. And it's sad to see where we're at right now.

Speaker 2

But I don't know.

Speaker 1

I hope, I hope we could turn that around and bring back the pro American sentiment, not not isolationism by the way, just being more proud of who we are. And and I hope that we can understand why things were done the way they were done. It wasn't all bad intentions, you know. Oh, and it's a sad thing. Uh.

What's next in the Middle East - Israel vs Iran

Let me ask you this question. What's next?

Speaker 2

Man?

Speaker 1

What do you think's next with with Iran and Israel and where this is going to go?

Speaker 2

Ah, I don't think it's gonna go anywhere. No, No, you know, both sides are pretty much spent, you know. They they just don't have the internal resources. That's why when people said, oh my god, this is gonna be World War three, it's not. We don't. There's just no

there's no capacity for waging a long war. Now. Granted, Israel is waging along war inside Gaza, but that's not as expensive as keeping aircraft running twenty four to seven, right, right, and you know, Iran doesn't have It's not like they can sail to Israel and drop the landing ships and invade, right true, there's no World War three, right, So I think what happens is both sides kind of take a breather,

they take lessons from that. Iran is probably gonna they probably have a shopping list, but there's not a lot of people that can actually fulfill that shopping list. They're gonna need new surf scare systems, They're going to need new radar systems, and kind of one of the issues is that there's just no capacity around the world for them to gain the systems that they need to defend their airspace. You look at you look at Russia. You know, try placing an order for a missile system in Russia

right now, right they're going to fill their orders first. Absolutely, Try placing a system for a missile system order from China right now. Well, they're going to fill their orders first. So who's left.

Speaker 1

Yeah, China is not concerned with anyone else having more power than that China.

Speaker 2

China is. China's always going to do it's best for China, and right now it's best for China's manufacturing weapons for a fight against Taiwan, right right, agree, that's what's best for China.

Speaker 1

I thought I thought we could have been on the

Did We Narrowly Avoid WW3 - The Threat of Nuclear Weapons

verge of World War three. And the reason I thought that was what I kind of mentioned earlier, because you know, when Pakistan stepped up and they were right away going and oh, we'll use neicerent weapons that we have to, we'll do it. And then Russia right away stepped up and he said, oh, we're behind Iran and in so Dia China. But you know, it does make sense what you're saying, because from a financial standpoint, none of them could could enter into this and have an extended war,

none of them, none of those nations whatsoever. I think I was more I would think I took it more seriously just because of what Pakistan said, you know, a shooting a nuclear weapon off. But who knows. I mean, yeah, you're probably right. It probably did come down to literally just finances, like there's just nobody could afford to do it.

Speaker 2

Nobody. Yeah, And I was not actually familiar with with Pakistan saying they're going to use the nuclear weapon, because when someone says we're going to use the nuclear weapon, the next question needs to be okay against whom, Like, what's the what? What is the I've often said this, there's really only four cases in what you'd use a nuclear web, right. That is to establish a breakthrough. Let's talk about a taxical weapons to establish a breakthrough. That's

a valid use case. You blow up a nuclear weapon above a troop concentration. You do it as an air bursts. There's very little ground radiation or very little radio I could fall out, and you run your troops through that hole that you made in the front lines. That would be an ideal weapon for Russia to use against Ukraine if they had the troops to actually exploit a breakthrough.

There's a second thing, which is defending a breakthrough, like when Ukraine went into curse, using a nuclear weapon on Russian taxical nuclear weapon on Russian soil, that would have been a good use case for using a nuclear weapon, right. It would have stopped that breakthrough like that, and it would have been on Russian soil that the world probably would have been mad, but hey, they blew up their

own country, so that's okay. Right. The third thing is to use a nuclear weapon against the naval fleet American carriers in the Atlantic. That is an ideal use case or a nuclear weapon. The fourth thing is an amphibious landing. So if Taiwan or China lands on Taiwan using a nuclear weapon against the amphibious beachhead, that would be an ideal use case or a nuclear weapon. So when Pakistan says we're going to use a nuclear weapon against what,

are you going to have exploded over Israel? Good luck with that?

Speaker 1

No understood? I believe with h No, I'm with you. Where it came from, you know, it's where it came from. Was was the belief that when the situation was happening, right, it was all based allegedly on the fact that Iran wouldn't come to the table with their nuclear data deal. We didn't want No, the world does not want them

to have a nuclear weapon or to develop one. So Pakistan at the time, and a lot of the other sympathizers of our we're always like, why does Israel he them, they're not even part of this agreement or this pack, why do they have nuclear weapons?

Speaker 2

Well, that Israel has a nuclear weapon.

Speaker 1

Right, So that's what that's what the rhetoric was. So it was it was a response to everything going on saying if if Israel dares to launch a nucle weapon, if there's a nuclear weapon launched, we're going to launch everything we have and back Iran. And and that I believe that's where that came from. So, I mean, when a country or nation says, hey, we're going to use our entire nuclear arsenal if we have to, kind of makes me, you know, go, hey, well wait a minute.

You know, we might be going a bit too far. But you know, to your point, you're right, it's like, who are.

Speaker 2

They gonna do? Yeah, what are they gonna do? Now? A good use case for a nuclear weapon in Israel's case, if they have them, might be all right, well, we want to reach Fourdoh, we can't reach Floridoh, so let's explod the nuclear weapon groundburst small fifteen twenty kiloton nuclear weapon against Foorid. Oh that'll take out Florida. Would the

world be mad? Probably? But in some ways, like I think one of the reasons that Israel kind of kind of I don't want to say they screwed themselves, but when ten days after the ten days after the October seventh, there was an explosion at the it was the Urbia hospital, and the New York Times immediately publishes Israel dropped a bomb on this hospital, yes, and so then they and I like when I saw that, I was like, no,

they did, and I kind of knew why. I watched the footage and all that and like that that was than the bomb from Israel. And it was later found out to be a missile fire by Islamic Jihad that just kind of fell short. And that that happens. I think twenty percent of all missiles launched against Israel land inside Gosy.

Speaker 1

Never really made it never hit Therom markin.

Speaker 2

Oops, right, you know.

Israel Bombing Hospitals - Truth or Propaganda

Speaker 1

And that's that's an interesting thing. Abought the hospitals because it seems like there are two hundred and something hospitals in Gaza, you know, I.

Speaker 2

Think it's fewer than that.

Speaker 1

But well, the way they're reporting it, it's it's it's just crazy that it seems like every other week there's a hospital being blown up. And how much of this is true versus just again propaganda, how much of that is just you know, trying to win the sympathy of the world and turn Israel into the big bad enemy.

Speaker 2

In some cases, I believe it's been true. I would have to go overreach each bombing case. But you know, if Daddy l daddy is in a hospital. Though hospitals are supposed to be exempt from attack according to the Geneva Conventions, kind of the issue that you run into is that if you are hosting troops in there, and

I don't mean troops that have been wounded. And you know, there was a couple of years ago there was an attack against the hospital and I think it was Amnesty International said, oh, the Ukrainians were using the hospital as a best home, and like that's one of those well yeah, like because if you go to the hospital to visit your buddy, where are you going to eat? You're gonna eat at the hospital, right like that that's kind of

stretching it as an excuse for attacking the hospital. But yeah, that just for the most part, you're not supposed to do that. And so if as it is going to decide to do that, they're going to go over there, uh there, Oh my god, I can't remember the darn word for it, but they're going to go over a

procedure to decide how to actually strike this. They're going to do the weaponearing and say this is affect type of bomb because Daddy Elbaddie is on the third floor in the fourth room, So we're going to use a small diameter bomb that will just take out this one room. So you have to be very aware of how Israel is actually going to undertake these actions, and so they might do this, But what was the criteria for striking this particular target.

Speaker 1

Yeah, I understand that. I think I think the reason people are so so peeved about all of it in terms of because it seems to be indiscriminate. That's you know, let's just say that's what it is. That's what people that's what people are gathering about, you know, from what's happening. Uh and and and the reason it seems this way is because Israel has proven that they can be very

strategic and surgical when they want to be. But when it comes to Gaza, it's like it's it seems like they're just leveling the place.

Speaker 2

But a lot of that, a lot of the leveling is those are bulldozers, Those are D nine bulldozers. So those aren't necessarily bob buildings. Now, it doesn't make a difference for the person who's home is destroyed, right, But if you're in a platoon and you have to clear a house and you know there's a bad guy in that house. You're like, well, is this is this bad guy really worth my platoon's life. You might call in an air strike, or you might say, just get the

dn I in up here. Uh, some of the D nine bulldozers are actually armored and uh they're remote controls. So the dnine just comes in, levels the house and move on to the next house.

Speaker 1

So you think a lot of this is is just a blown out of portion. You know, it's it's all for just getting eyeballs on news feeds and on social media posts.

Speaker 2

Possibly it works. Yeah, hey, you talked about God. There's

Media and Influencers - Embellishing the Story

that one guy who's saying Hitler was the good guy. Yeah, well look, get you on, Tucker Carls. Everybody else says Hitler is the bad guy, right, So Tucker Carlson, now I was all right, Well, if I bring on this guy says Hitler was the good guy, I'm going to get lots of people watching my show. I'm going to get lots of people talking about my showfa right, And he's always been fired from every job he's ever had.

He needs news, he needs news, all right, and what's going to get the views well, talking about how Hitler is a good guy. Yeah, miss understood.

Speaker 1

Yeah, I know there's a lot of guys that are that are that are taking that stance and again trying to reread history. But you know that, to me, that's a whole other conversation. I mean that that's another rabbit hole that we can dive down. But I just think it's so ridiculous how people don't see what's going on and they're just they're just eating it up. They're just eating it up. I mean, it's so easy to do

research these days. It's not like you have to find the library that might have a specific collection of books anymore. I mean, the internet is vast. I mean you've got to vet your sources on the internet, but it's it's not as hard as it used to be to find information, you know. So it's as if they just take these people for their word just because they have a huge following or a podcast that's popular. But you know, nobody seems to be questioning what they're saying. They're just eating it up.

Speaker 2

Yeah, I mean that that's some of that is some

Short Attention Culture

of that is the attention culture, right, Like you know when you have when you have some Instagram video, you know, you're scrolling through this thing. And that's how a lot of people get their news these days from Instagram. Like have you ever waked? Like, have you recently watched the evening news, ABS Evening News, ABC Evening News? Like once in a while, I might. I've tried the news. I

watched the morning news. I do. I do watch the morning news to find out like the weather or hey, these roads are going to be closed in DC or whatever. I do watch the morning news. But for the most part, like when you watch the evening news, one of the interesting things you see is commercials for medication. It's like, literally every single commercials for medication. Why is that? It's because the only people who watch the news are old people.

Speaker 1

Enough, the only people well, you know, that's one of the reasons I don't watch mainstream news or televised news, because it's it's ninety percent commercials and advertising and maybe ten percent of actual content, you.

Speaker 2

Know, probably less than that, right, I think I'm gonna say in ten minutes of commercials, I'm gonna say it seems like every.

Speaker 1

Time I'm watching it, I run into like, you know, ten commercials in a row, and then all of a sudden they talk for thirty seconds. It's another ten commercials. It's almost as bad as watching an NFL game sometimes.

Speaker 2

So you have another issue that you kind of run into, is you have with the Internet. You have this hyper specialization when it comes to viewing content. So if you see someone's opinion and you like that opinion, well they're going to show you more things that are associated with that because they want to keep your eyeballs on you know, they want to keep your eyeballs on the on the screen. Absolutely.

Speaker 1

Well, since we're talking about this, it's I've seen it with and I know you've seen it because you've been doing this longer than I have. I just started getting into video right and utilizing YouTube and rumble and whatnot. And what I've noticed is the difference between my audio podcasts and what works on YouTube are two different things. I could throw a two hour interview on YouTube and get almost views, but I've turned into a bunch of

shorts and all. It's like you've got thousands of Look, I'm like what because people can't get past thirty seconds, and even within those thirty seconds for like they if they stick around for fifteen of those some can't, right, But in general, you know, I know, generalizing, but it just seems like everybody has a very short attention spans

when it comes to video content. I've noticed anyway. So it's like I could have a two hour episode on a conversation on a podcast audio format that does extremely well, but then in video format it seems like everybody just wants to get right to it. It's like, where's the short at I want to see these little clips. They don't want to go through the whole thing and really take it. In the majority, I'm not saying all, but the majority, So I've noticed the difference. It's it's it's

it's crazy. And again, different audiences too, right, Maybe maybe people asn't audio or just an older generation of people that are used to just wanting to hear those long conversations, But it seems like the younger people or the newer generations are like, nope, I want to quick, I want to fast, I want to the point and I'm done. I want to move on now. That's what seems like that that's my opinion anyway, from my perspective. Yeah, So, uh, Ukraine, what's going on.

Speaker 2

Man, Well, we're about to us our time box, but I know, let's keep We're.

Speaker 1

Getting there, but before before we go, I wanted to

Trump's Support for Ukraine - Sending a Message to Adversaries

get your opinion on what's going on with a sudden shift to send Ukraine weapons and support when Trump was against it or seemed to be no.

Speaker 2

Honestly, I don't think that was President Trump. I think that was uh crap. I can't remember his name. I think there are some people in the d O D. I can't remember the specific guy's name, but he's a big China hawk, and I think that was him. And when Trump kind of realized what had happened, that this happened without his authority, I think he uh kind of put the kabash on that real quick. Albridge Colby, what's the guy's name, Elbridge Colby. He's a big we need

to be ready to fight China guy. He's not wrong, but we can. We can do both. And kind of the scary thing here, The thing I've mentioned is that by supporting Ukraine, we are deterring China because we were saying we're gonna stand with our allies no matter what. So China, if you decide to take Taiwan, you're gonna have a.

Speaker 1

Bad day, right, And that was definitely in question for a while. Wouldn't we stand on the Hunter allies? It seemed like we wouldn't. But I mean we've definitely turned that corner and showed the world that we build.

Speaker 2

Well. One of the one of the huge issues is that there are a finite amount of weapons. We burned through a lot of interceptors. We burned through a lot of interceptors in Israel, and I think Lockie Raytheon has the capability of manufacturing five hundred and fifty factories per year. It's not a lot, right, No, And you know, I'd love to say, like, well, we should, we should fund

that more, right, we should. We should put more money into developing missiles, should hire more people working at these factories. And that's great, But who's going to pay for that? Right? I agreed?

Speaker 1

Yeah, exactly.

Speaker 2

So, so you know, in some ways, like maybe one of the solutions is maybe we need to look at a less expensive interceptor, right that has eighty percent of the capabilities. Right, Like I'm surprised andrel hasn't worked on something like that. Like here's this thing, here's this new missile we developed, It's one hundred and fifty thousand each week and make ten thousand of them. It'll fit on the pack three launcher and it has eighty percent of the capabilities of the Patriot.

Munitions and Money - Is it enough for Ukraine?

Speaker 1

Is is supporting Ukraine with munitions enough? I mean, do you do you think because we first talked about this, and I think when you and I first talked was like back in January or so and so, do you think that at this point just giving them munitions and money is enough? Are we ever going to get to the point where you think we may have to actually get involved with real troops to push back on Russia just because there's such a much I mean, there's just

a much bigger country. You know, it's a little different than the Israel Iran situation we're looking at. Russia is just so much bigger and has so many more capabilities, you know, at least depth anyway, right depth. So do you think we'll ever come to that or we'll just the support of munitions be enough?

Speaker 2

All Ukraine has ever wanted was weapons, Like they haven't asked for any troops, they haven't asked for anyone to come to their aid. Now, could they? Could we do something more like established the no fly zone that I mean back when the war first started, I made a video about that where like, look, it'd be really difficult to establish no fly zone because we would have to take out Russian surface stair missiles, would have to Now kind of the question there becomes like, well, could the

UK and France establish a no fly zone? And they might be able.

Speaker 1

To do that, That is the question actually, right, and.

Speaker 2

No fly zone would would really help Ukraine because it essentially mean any missiles fired into ukraineould get shot down and they have the capability. I don't know if they have the ability to run a WAX twenty four to seven like the United States does, and you're gonna need those airborne warning control planes in order to detect those

incoming missiles. But yeah, I certainly think that maybe establishing a no fly zone, at least from the European side of the European run no fly zone, that might not be a bad idea.

Speaker 1

So that in combination with the continued support of munitions and money to fund this should be enough, I think. So.

Speaker 2

I mean, that's like I said, that's all they really wanted, right, give us the weapons we need.

Speaker 1

They never called for actual troops I agree, You're correct, they never did. I guess.

Will Putin Back Off - Russia on the verge of Collapse

Speaker 2

I guess.

Speaker 1

The other factor is will hooting back off eventually? You know, the longer this goes out, it goes on. But will he eventually back off?

Speaker 2

That's that's that's a good question. I you know, his his goal. The goal of Russia is to turn Ukraine into a satellite state. So one of two things is going to happen. They're either going to turn Ukraine into a satellite state, Russia is eventually going to collapse. And I actually believe one of the reasons that our strategy at one point during the early administration was let's get

out of Ukraine. Let's just let Russia take it, because then absolute nightmare scenario is what happens if Russia and Ukraine continued to fight for the next four years, and then China invades Taiwan, right, and then Russia collapses, and now we have a collapse state with nuclear weapons. We

have to go secure those weapons right now. The first time that Russia collapsed, people didn't leave their post, right even though they weren't getting paid or they didn't really know if they had a country anymore, they stayed by their post and they guarded those nuclear weapons. But I don't know if that's going to be the case if Russia collapses to the point where you have regional warlords who take over and you know, now they're not gonna be able to use those nuclear weapons because all the

permissive action links are in Moscow. Right But eventually you can take the plutonium out of there, you can give it to another nation, they can build their own bob eventually some of all fear style.

Speaker 1

Yeah, do you do you think do you think Russia may be on the ridge of plausiphist does extend any longer it keeps going.

Speaker 2

I think they could collapse mainly because you know, at some point there's just no there, there's they're fighting their

Russia can't Stop - The War Time Economy

own economy, so you know when right now.

Speaker 1

We're trying to stay ahead of it, right with this this war.

Speaker 2

So they're paying. So they have laborers and they have soldiers, and right now in the factories in Russia, like you can either join the army or you get a job at a factory, and so Russia is paying money. These are compracti key, These are not conscripted soldiers. These guys are being paid to join the army, and right now they're paying them enough money that people think, well, I'm going to roll the dice and run the risk of joining the army for all this this fucking full of money.

And the issue is that some of the weapons manufacturing companies they can't find workers, so they raise wages. So now people go to the weapons manufacturing company instead of joining the army. So the army raises wages, so then the other companies raise wages, and they just keep raising wages. The Army raises and the French companies raised wages. I think twenty percent of Russia's economy is geared towards the

war right now. And you know, one of the scary parts I've said is that if you turn that off, that's going to be a big problem because you can't just let's say Russia wins the war, right if they

don't have a soft landing with their economy. There's going to be a huge issue, a massive issue, because you have all these people who they had a job one day and now they don't have a job, and maybe demobilize soldiers, and these soldiers they come back and yeah, they have a bunch of money that only lasts so long,

right then they might drink it all a way. Eventually people You know, when you have a society and you just taught all these people how to use guns and they come back to their job, what happens, Well, people like that have always figured out how to get a gun. And Russia's gun laws are not the same as the

United States, but you can buy a gun. So I think that's the kind of the nightmare scenario for Russia where let's say they win, but then they kind of lose as well because their economy collapses and we need to the point where you can only raise wages so much. Right. What is Russia's main export right now? Cold natural gas oil, right, and the rest of the world can only buy so much of that. So and a lot of their extraction equipment is made in the West, so they can't get

spare parts for that. They also don't really have machine tool industry. A lot of the machine tool industry is in Germany, the Netherlands, the United States. China doesn't even have a real machine tool industry. We see and C manufacturing. So you're pumping oil as fast as you can for the hard currency that can that you can use to pay your people and buy weapons and keep this war going that at some point you're going to reach the limit to how much oil you can actually pump and

things breaking down so there's less oil. So right, so they can only keep this up for so long, and I don't know how long that's going to be, but there is a finite limit to how long Russia can keep pumping oil.

Speaker 1

Yeah, no, that's true. And then there's the other the

Will Russia turn on Putin?

other factor as to whether or not or when do the people start to really turn on Putin and not support them anymore, because for the most part, most Russians do.

Speaker 2

I can tell you when if Russia ever establishes a general conscription again, like they tried that. I want to say it was in September of twenty and twenty two. Russia did a general mobilization and the people hated it because there's always been this deal between Moscow, Saint Petersburg and Russian politicians, which is, do whatever the hell you

want to, just don't touch our kids. Right, So, as long as the elite in Saint Petersburg and Moscow aren't being sent to the front lines, do whatever the heck you want. But the second your kids are being sent to the front lines, that's that's an issue, and that's where you get to actually see real change. You know, right now, the whole, the whole thing is being funded by taxes on these Russian oligarchs. They can't possibly enjoy

those high taxes. They want to live in their mansion and buy their football teams in England and stuff, right right, that's not really good for them either.

Speaker 1

All right, well, I think we're at your time here. I'd love to keep talking to it. I can't keep you forever, so I appreciate that. Oh yeah, I want to. I want to thank you for coming back on man, and I'll see you in touch with you, but it's always informative and I like talking to you, so appreciate it. And you know, hopefully we talk again soon. I know you're a very busy guy though.

Speaker 2

Thank you so much.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Speaker 2

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