2026 State of Alaska Politics

In times of political uncertainty, what Alaska needs is even more uncertainty. Meet Andrew and Ethan. They're not running for governor in 2026, but they have talked about, possibly thinking about. Maybe considering it. Save Alaska. Andrew has been a little bit more than a little bit of a ideas and a vision. has ideas and a vision, but together they have commitment issues. launched a campaign. They haven't even launched a website. At Martini's at the Spinard Roadhouse. and Ethan.

Not your first choice, not even your second, but definitely on the first. Maybe. Somewhere. Because if Alaska is going off a cliff, we might as well laugh on the way down. Paid for by the Exploratory Committee to explore the formation of a potential committee.

Welcome to another episode of with all due respect. Andrew Hauker, your host here with my political co-host, Ethan Berkowitz. Ethan, happy new year to you. And I I hey wait a minute, I I know we're seventeen days in and there I might have passed that demarcation line where it's it's no longer uh uh class A to uh to say Happy New Year but Happy New Year myself.

Okay, that's awesome. Now let me ask you on that on that uh topic, is there like an acceptable cutoff date like, you know, the old theory you don't wear white after Labor Day? When is the time you actually when you greet somebody for the first time in the new year? I think it's when you remember to write the right year down on your checks. Oh people don't do checks anymore.

Yeah, that used to be it, right? All right. Uh a lot to cover today. All right. Let me tell you what let me tell you what we got going on today. First we're gonna stop in Anchorage at City Hall. Uh, we're going to talk about the sales tax. And I want to talk, we've talked ad nauseum about the other alternatives to a retail sales tax. Uh but I want to talk about n uh not just the the the policy and political challenges but

Voter fatigue. I mean it used to be that a sales tax was a real rare bird and every p you know four or five years somebody would get rumblings or somebody'd put together a task force and rebuild like a sales tax, right? Um and now it's you know, i i it's like the the the the uh

like the dandelions that come up every year. Um, you know, you just expect it. Um so I wanna get into that. Second thing is I want to check in on the governor's race. Ethan and I want to make an announcement for all you guys Uh twenty twenty six candidates. Um and I wanna finish up with uh the legislature, what we anticipate from them and also what do we anticipate from Governor Mike Dunlavy's last year

in office. Of course he's term limited out. This is his last legislative session, so I want to talk about what do we expect, if anything, uh, from Governor Mike Dunlevy. So Ethan, my friend, how are you first off? I I'm doing great. How are you doing, Andrew? I am doing well. It's good to see you. Did you have a good holiday season? It was epic. It was an epic event. I did. Yes. Excellent. Now I'm all four epic adventures. Hey, some of the best TVs are everybody's okay.

Yes, that's awesome. That is an epic ending. All right, let's start at City Hall. Uh sales tax. Gosh man. Wow, have we come a long way, right? Uh I remember the late nineties, the early two K's when the reality became that the state was essentially gonna start pulling back

state funding, um uh you know, giving state funding to local communities. You know, w it it really started when when Maistrom was mayor and we cut that you remember you and I were in the legislature We cut municipal revenue sharing assistance a good deal simply because oil was nine dollars a barrel and we had a billion dollar budget cut.

Uh so you know, w sales tax used to be a rare burden, right? But now we are talking about it every single year for the last, you know, uh two years and then you know before that the assembly's talked about this. There is no need that the city needs additional revenue. I mean there's just simply no need. When you look at the numbers, you can clearly see the state pullback has has costed shift, uh has shifted cost dramatically to local taxpayers.

But are we getting into this risk of just simply voters turning out like the tuning out like the boy who cried wolf? I mean you had what did you have like four hundred and ninety seven different uh sales tax proposals on the ta table? Um, in you you had uh some assembly members support others, some didn't support this one and so there was no

consensus. So in the meantime the voters are looking at this going, Oh, for God's sakes, what are you people doing? So my question, Ethan, let's start off this conversation by talking about voter fatigue. If I if you're a voter and you're seeing this Tennis match, what the hell are you thinking? I think they're tired of the hokey pokey with the sales tax. They put the sales tax in, they take the sales tax out, they put the sales tax in and they shake it all about.

and then they never do anything with it. That's what's going on. And I I think th it's a terrible political strategy. You can't say we're on the edge of a fiscal cliff. and then not pursue ki some kind of coherent, consistent strategy about how to solve the problem. And this administration hasn't really addressed it. They put the sales tax in, they took it out and

Th there are other alternatives and you need to have some kind of explanation that's consistent and you can't back off. You need commitment and you need conviction and I hope that they uh find the the the backbone to do what their brains tell'em. Yeah, you know, I look first off I can't judge them politically because they're trying to do something. My worry is that i you know, this is like the uh death of a thousand cuts, or in this case it's death of a thousand ass.

uh y you know, you've asked so many times, you've talked about it so many times, but there's no as you said, there doesn't seem to be a coherent strategy, right? Because at the same time you're saying the city's broke and we're talking about a three percent sales tax, which immediately uh sets b you know, both the retail and consumers uh, you know, uh i in a spin.

But now you're talking about a city that doesn't have any money helping bail out a school district that doesn't have any money. And so if I'm a voter I'm thinking, Okay, w why are you giving away something you you don't have? And in this I fear, Ethan, plays into the natural voter skepticism of here we go again, 3% sales tax, what is it going for? you know, these types of natural arguments. And I worry we're getting there faster than we should.

And you need to have the the the kind of leadership where you've lined up the public and the private sector with clear explanations as to the nature of the problem. And the problem essentially is that Is the the state has cut funds to the municipality, the feds are cutting funds to the municipality, the municipality needs the resources to stand on its own.

And people need to have a recognition that Anchorage in terms of land mass is the biggest city in the country. It is a vertical city. It is a winter city. And so there are additional costs just inherent to running Anchorage. Man, if you start to cut the budget, and I know that there's those groups out there and say, oh, we don't have a revenue problem, we have a spending problem, but when you ask those people where are you going to cut the budget, they never have any answer.

You know, you wanna plow the roads, you wanna have cops, you wanna have firefighters, you wanna have libraries, you wanna have all the accoutrements that make this a a worthwhile and attractive city to live, it costs something. And the only pi pi place that we go now is to the municipal taxpayers.

There are some other solutions because there are some free riders out there that we could draw in and have them start to pay their fair share, but you need a coherent message. And playing uh the hokey pokey with the sales tax is not a coherent message. Well and you you think about over the last let's say sixteen to eighteen months uh there have been you know aggressive, sometimes coordinated and organized campaigns. You know, of course the campaign last year with

uh A D C involved that comes to mind. So there's been some coordination, some strategy about advocating for a sales tax that has been abandoned at the eleventh hour. Um now i i i is uh this is something I just simply don't understand. If you're committed to something you know, then be committed. And if you're committed to something you better have a long term vision. And what I fear is, you know, this administration, I think this administration is doing

uh a lot of things right. Right. I think, you know, they've been very focused on housing. They've been you know, w we're talking about moving cops around, but it's an indication of the city, you know, petty petty crime and dealing with homeless. So I I feel like they're trying to make progress on a number of levels. But as you and I know firsthand, m myself uh from a legislative standpoint, yourself from an executive standpoint as a former mayor.

It's all about revenue. It's all about resources, right? And what I fear is this city is in i is is in such a hole and will continue with the state's fiscal outlook. to be in such a t such a a a toll that, you know, if by miracle of God a sales tax did you know, were to pass that you know, you'd be back within two or three years saying, four years saying, Okay, we've got another twelve million uh dollar budget deficit and the public's gonna go, Okay

What did we tell ya, right? So I just feel shu structurally the whole thing is just absolutely broken. I i it is. It is. And the the responsibility that cities have now, not just anchors but cities across the country is vastly different than it was When federal and state money was flowing into municipal copper.

And but when you look at Anchorage, and I know we're not going to devolve into a discussion of the alternatives, but there are things on the horizon. There's a st uh a stormwater utility that would mean that the the feds and the state with all their resources and and the nonprofits that are not paying anything now for stormwater benefits that are being subsidized by taxpayers and other rate payers would have to pay something. That's about twenty million dollars to the municipality.

You got about another forty million dollars that's on the cusp once we get a waste energy proposal uh moving and implemented. You've got things like uh when the Denina Center gets paid off, all the tax revenue that's going to pay it off in the next couple of years, that can go to the municipality. So we're talking about neighborhood of seventy, seventy-five million dollars. um that the municipality is going to get if it pursues non-tax-based projects immediately.

And then then I I I know the the Port of Anchorage um is a moneymaker for this for the municipality and for the state. If we just made a little money with it. We don't even I mean if you increase and I know tariffs have a different meaning, but if you increase the rate that that is paid for people that use the port. you could actually cover the cost and then some because the

With the port of Anchorage, you've got uh the Don Young, whatever they're calling it now, Port of Alaska. Um, it is in essence you're having the the the municipality of Anchorage subsidized the rest of the state and there should be a use tax on on the port of Anchorage which would allow the municipality to at least recoup its cost, its total cost for uh

run in the port. And I I would s probably suggest that people take a look at what you can do with the airport because the airport uh I would g guess there are some similar revenue possibilities as well. I do um before we move on to the governor's race, I I do want to circle back to the just this uh you know, the the the structural

integrity of the entire system and there is none. The structure is broken, right? And what we are trying to do every year, both on a local and a state level, is to wallpaper over structural budget deficiency. Right. And so, you know, we've wasted the last year on a sales tax discussion, right? And and d it's not gonna be right for another year or two, right?'Cause you're not going to wanna take another bite of the apple next year.

So, you know, in even to implement it's gonna be so now you've postpone the inevitable, right? You have a state that's in the same situation. So you have no relief for the municipal government coming anytime in the near future other than what you've talked about. And the question is you still need a longer term plan, right? Y you need a coherent plan.

Um but I think it is one of those things where when you look down the road and I I you know, w I'm just f so frustrated with the uh you know, with the state kind of living day to day, paycheck to paycheck, and when you look down the road There is zero relief coming for local communities. If anything, it's just gonna get worse. Because you look at the long term outlook of the the fiscal outlook of the state, man. You know.

of the internet sales tax. And frankly, the municipality should have jumped into that breach um while it was available to them to implement something like that. But, you know, wait uh lost opportunities, it's the story of Alaska. We you know Lord God, please give us another boom. We promise not to piss it away. That that that in some ways is the the fiscal epitaph of Alaska. Well, and i you know, here's the thing. Like you said, um it is uh you know, take a take a defensive position

uh by taking an offensive position and you know, I've heard a couple of lawmakers rumbling about sales tax. Uh I even heard a far fetched rumor that the governor might uh introduces sales tax, uh which may or may not be true. I just find it hard to believe after eight years of Governor Mike Dunlavey.

Um but i you know, so lawmakers are already talking about a sales tax. For them it would be far easier to approve that than anything, right? But that's gonna take away from local communities and as I said for twenty years, man, once the state does that The city of Anchorage is gonna become like an ul the ultimate cash cow for Juno and residents are gonna get very little from it.

Well, just to dip my toe very quickly into the state thing, there's not gonna happen and nothing's gonna happen at the state level in terms of revenue because we we have the legislature and particularly the governor ha have hitched their wagon to this uh mythical beast called a gas pipeline. And the hope that the gas pipeline will pull us to prosperity is still lingers out there.

And even if it were to come to pass, it is so far in the future that we've we will be over many fiscal cliffs before we get to that. Right. Well, look, it is um it's not gonna come to pass. I mean, this is about economics, right? In economics do not change with

uh you know, with government guarantees. You know, government guarantees come with their own complications themselves, as you know, they become quick Christmas trees and suddenly Alaska's pipeline becomes Oklahoma's nuclear power plant and everybody's gonna wanna go want guarantees, right? But you know, if anybody watched the oil company's you know, visit with the president last week about Venezuela Yeah, I'm not sure.

uh companies like Exxon man, you know, they look ten, fifty years, you know, fifty years out, right? They're not And and you know, this this natural gas pipeline is not happening. Especially with other sources. Right, right. And that's the that's the reality, right? That is the reality that these companies, you know, understand risk, right? And what may look like a good deal, like

You know, Exxon going into Venezuela is not a good deal and they recognize that risk, just like they recognize the Alaska natural gas pipeline was not a good risk. Right.

That means that there's gonna be less capital available for Alaska. And I mean that's the nature of how things work in a boardroom. Do you're gonna go into a board uh the Hill Court boardroom or just one person and it's gonna say it's got so much money, where's it gonna go? It's gonna go to Venezuela or is it gonna go to Alaska?

That's right. All right, let's move into the governor's race. Uh not a lot to report. You know, there's still four hundred and Seventeen candidates. Okay. All right. So let me ask you um Huh, let me ask you about a couple of things. First off, uh I found it uh interesting uh Dave Bronson Uh running for governor uh announced his uh lieutenant governor pick uh a gentleman from Fairbanks, right?

uh gentleman from Fairbanks has uh a strong military background. Well let me tell let me just give you an aside. Having been a lieutenant gubernatorial candidate and um I I remember talking to Meet Treadwell and I said, No small boy grows up dreaming of becoming lieutenant governor. Okay. Well, it's great that they've got these lieutenant governor candidates out there, but uh it it is it it is not gonna move a needle for anybody.

Okay. So I'm going to circle back around to my in initial contention that you have about five candidates drinking from the same well, right? Dave Bronson announces a Lieutenant Governor Pick uh from Fairbanks uh military. Uh Dave Bronson's from Anchorage, picks a Fairbanks guy military uh back. Bernadette Wilson from Anchorage, Pixa Valley guy, military background, right? You see where it's going, right? Alaska has the highest uh percentage of military retirees in the country, right? So again

Same candidate, same beliefs, picking the same lieutenant governor. Five candidates drinking from the same well. Dolstrom, Taylor, Crum, Wilson, Bronson. There's more five Republicans. There's what? There's more. You're forgetting the name some. If my memory were better I would be able to rattle'em all off. But uh Well, no no, I know there's more, but I consider those like the top five with name recognition in a Republican

kind of in or in the Republican Party, right? Competing for the same voter. When I look at those five candidates, I think they've they have name recognition, they've run statewide, they they have a base net Right. So that's how I that's how I look at it. None of those guys have run statewide before.

Or not no no no not uh I'm sorry, not statewide. They've run you know, they've held office. Like Bronson hasn't run statewide. He's run for the legislature, but he's run statewide, but he's been mayor. But no I don't know any of the others who've actually held elective office. Dahlstrom. Okay, Dolstrom? Yeah. Dahlstrom. Bishop. Okay. There we go. Right. I know. I'm searching. Taylor didn't Taylor did not, Crumb did not, but they served in Dunleman's administration.

Uh wave your name on a sign. It is just not the same. It isn't the same. But they are literally the same candidate, right? If you put them all five together on a platform In a forum, ask them all the five the same questions, all five of'em would answer the same. Yep. Am I am I wrong on that? No, no, they're uh they're Okay.

Okay. And as we know, only one pickle allowed in a jar. Okay. All right. Now I want to announce er uh this to all of the gubernatorial candidates that are out there on behalf of of myself and Ethan. So if you're running for governor, if you know or supporting somebody who runs for governor, forward them a link to our podcast, okay? 'Cause Ethan and I, in our first podcast of the year, are throwing the doors open. We will welcome any gubernatorial candidate that wishes to come on our podcast.

Ethan, I I Is that correct? I agree. I say that as you know, we were both candidates in the past. Um and you know, as I as I hope the audience remembers, we're thinking about thinking about maybe thinking about You know, maybe jumping in this time too. So we just you know, we wanna get a a sense of who who's out there.

Well, and and we want to again we want to open the doors. We don't care, you know, Republican, Democrat, independent, whatever you want. We'll have you on the podcast. We will supply you with the questions ahead of time, right? So it's not an ambush. But if you come on the show, we will expect answers to those questions. Fair enough, Ethan? Yeah, I think it's fair enough. I mean we don't want to ambush people, but we want real answers. And we don't want we don't frankly we don't want more

Pap and Panda and BS and you know, cliches. It's you can t tell us tell us something something real. Exactly. And and I think that you know, our our podcast as we focus on the gubernatorial election and in the midterm elections coming up in November You know, we wanna provide an open mic, but we wanna provide an open mic that that delivers substance. Right. Is do we allow them to have notes or not? Well there's no way you can stop that'cause we do it

virtually, right? You can always have notes, right? But, you know, look, I i it's a question of, you know, when I feel you know, being accountable, right? Being accountable, right? You come on the podcast. We ask you some questions. It's not an ambush. We've provided you with the questions ahead of time. And then you and I, we have a a wealth of knowledge about politics and state government and we'll hold them accountable because that's what really this is, like you said. Because I get tired of

of reading this steady stream of op eds in the paper by, you know, elected officials that just, you know, just obscure the facts. There was one and I'll I'll give a very specific example. There was an op ed by uh state Senator Robert Myers a couple of days ago in the um I don't know, it was some article online I read, and he referenced a study to That's the same thing. has already been debunked by the people who actually did the study. Right. The people who did the study essentially said

They gave us money to do this study which we think is ridiculously wrong, right? This is not a study you base any type of factual conclusion on, right? So again, you know, here you have an elected Public official talking about this survey that people are reading that shows that the state's investment is education is through the roof. That has already been

proven false by the people who did the study. Well Andrew, our track record is clear. We are two former politicians who were more than willing to let facts get in the way of our opinions. And I am not sure that that's the case with everybody out there today. That's right. So again, Ethan and I extend uh an open invitation to anybody who wants to come on the podcast and answer the tough questions and

We're here. You just reach out to us. All right, Ethan? Good enough? Absolutely. All right. Uh let's switch to twenty twenty six legislative session. We know it well the beginning session starts. What in the next week, I guess, or this week, um Legislative leadership had a panel discussion where they talked about things they're gonna work on. Um and I love this because Uh uh i it's great reading between the lines because as a as a you know, as a as a former lawmaker yourself

Um, you know you say something, but really internally in your mind it's what you mean. So I I w after reading the press coverage of this panel discussion, I've got three of my top takeaways of what they said and what they mean. Okay, now this strictly comes from the mind of Andrew Aukra, okay? Here we go. Number one. They said we favor a dividend the state can afford.

Yeah what they meant what they meant was yo, that thirty six hundred PFD is a fantasy novel and we're switching genres to realism, right? That's that's what they said. Uh number two. What they said was we're waiting to see the governor's fiscal plan. But what they meant was we're bracing for a PowerPoint presentation that arrives late and changes nothing. Okay.

In my top third thing that what they said and what they meant was, quote, we need a third party review of the gas pipeline, which what they meant was before we sign up for a mega project, we need an adult in the room with a calculator. So there's my three takeaways. So let me ask you, Ethan, you know, what are the top one or two things you want to see accomplished. This is an election year, it's a signee die year.

uh you have an entire slate of of candidates running for for you know reelection. Um talk to me about this. What's going through a candidate's mind? So what's the I I can't speak what's happening in in their minds right now'cause those are scary places for me to even contemplate. But what I will tell you the responsible thing to do is what are we gonna do to get the state's fiscal house in order? Because all the things that we want to do, the education funding, public safety

I mean there's public health issues that are hugely significant. Um we need to be prepared to to deal with them. And in until the state really gets a fiscal plan i in place, um, we are going to be sliding more and more down the list of of uh quality of life and opportunity for Alaska. And that is

you know, we live in a state that has so much potential, so much opportunity. And people can't be afraid of that opportunity. They can't be afraid of of working hard and busting sweat uh in order to make make a future, a positive future. So I I'm hoping they do something on the fiscal regime. But my hope is you're gonna be quashed. I know it. I I uh but I guess the the White Sox won the pennant one year too. So maybe I'm wrong.

Um okay. My top thing is I I'd like them see I'd like to see them accomplish one big thing. Uh for instance pension reform. Uh I would too, like you, share the hope that they're gonna get some kind of a fiscal plan but I think that really requires a governor who is supportive of it and who's engaged, right? And who's not gonna string you out and make you go through a hundred and twenty days of grinding work and committee uh meetings.

trying to figure out revenue s you know new revenue sources and in just to veto'em. So um I I I hope they sig uh you know succeed on at least one big public policy issue. I think pension reform would be huge because

you know, as we know, we're losing that working population. One of the things that made this country so successful you know, in the nineteen fifties and nineteen sixties were people working for companies that provided them with a pension um and that provided a lot of still stability, right, for you know, for for, you know, guys in our generation to grow up, right?

uh because our families had that security and the challenge is over the last thirty years as the fiscal seri uh situation is deteriorated in this state, you know, we've constant constantly eating away at retirement benefits until you got to the point where there basically isn't any.

Right. So we've had a hard time not only keeping that that demographic of workers, but we've had a hard time attracting state workers. Right. So I think pension reform is brilliant. I think you have bipartisan support for that. you could convince the governor of the argument of that if he vetoed it. hopefully you'd have enough uh votes to override it. So I I hope they accomplish at least one big thing. Is we need an injection of hope and optimism.

real hope and real optimism, not based on false promises, but things that are real. And that requires hard work. And I I I I fear that the in particular this governor and this this legislative session is gonna be dominated by talk about this gas line. Um, you know I've spent a career hoping for a gas line, um, and a a and a career being disappointed by its failure to m materialize. I Look at columns by Larry Pursley or other fe people who know what's going on.

It it is a long way from happening. And, you know, people can prepare for a gas line, but that doesn't mean you you you don't have to eat your vegetables and do the other things that are necessary. uh in order for Alaska to be the great land. Not the mediocre land, not the average land, but the great land. And it's more than just a gap.

Well uh speaking of Larry Pursley, he was quoted in an article a couple of weeks ago Um th the this article was on the history of you know the the forty year history of Alaska's desires and failed efforts to attract a natural gas pipeline. Um and Larry Pursley is uh in my mind beyond a doubt

uh one of the smartest and most knowledgeable people on an Alaskan natural gas pipeline. I mean hell the dude was the federal pipeline coordinator for several years. So if there's a guy who knows pipelines, knows economic uh knows the reality whether this pipeline project is feasible or not, it's Larry Pursley.

He was quoted oh my god and I was so proud of him. Uh not th I'm always proud of Larry'cause he's just a brilliant guy. Uh but he was quoted in this article is saying Uh when reporters call me about the possibility of a la Alaska natural gas pipeline, I am losing ways in which to tell them it is absolute bullshit. I mean that was the quote in the paper. And and he said that before, right? It's like listen to me, people, this is not happening.

Right. There's not enough people, there's not enough economies to scale. You don't have private sector and financing sectors interested in taking the risk. Like I say, I I I hope we're wrong. But in my you know, and I've felt this for a long time, gas is gonna come off the slope in one of three ways. You're either gonna use it in place. You're going to find a way of batching it down the existing Trans-Alaska pipeline, or you're going to ship it directly off to slope.

Anything else, the the math just isn't there. Um well it'll be proven wrong, but you know, I've waited for a long time for this gas line. There's i i i it's not. The economics haven't changed in twenty years. What makes you what makes anybody think they're gonna change in the next Five. Seriously. I mean that that's what you need to get these people that that are giving you false hope in a room and saying, okay, point to what sides? What what it what are the indicators on your dashboard?

that lead you believe that uh an Alaskan natural gas pipeline is on the horizon. Because the last announcement I saw was they signed another quote unquote non binding agreement. with uh Donlin uh Creek or Donlin Hill mine to supply gas if a gas pipeline is ever built.

Right. Again, non binding. Even that, Donlin's a consumer. You still haven't even talked to the people and and made financial arrangements with the people who are gonna commit the twenty-five to thirty years of paying off that damn pipeline. So again, it's it's nothing more sm than smoke screens and i it's just this You know it's just this.

God, I've used this phrase so many times. It's just this ten dollar bill on the end of a fishing line. And when you look at the people who are telling you it's coming, it's people who are making money off the project. Period, right? It's what's the dude's name? Frank Richards, who's the highest paid public executive in the state and has never delivered anything. And on top of that, I think we did give away three quarters of it to Glen Farm.

For what? Yeah. I mean why not? If you're Glenn Farn, why not? You got millions to spend, you're going around making contacts at companies like Baker Hughes and and you know, it's like why not? Right? It's a it's a fantasy. It's it's I don't know. It's Andrew. uh your Nigerian prince has two million dollars in the bank. If you send me a hundred dollars I can access it. I mean that's literally what I feel like this pipeline project has become. Andrew?

That yeah. We've wasted enough on the pipeline. Again. Okay. All right. Final question, Ethan. What do you expect from Governor Mike Dunlivy's final year in office? Oh well my friend. Like The hope, possibility, and dream of an Alaskan natural gas pipeline, we will end it there. It's good to see you, my friend. See you next time. All right. Cheers. This year. In a world. So many podcasts that do little more than talk about stuff. And talk about other stuff too. A hero.

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