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In episode one seventeen, What's Right with Nick Wright, our wild card weekend gambling show, the weekend that we reset the record back to zero, we look back on how we did, and first we must recap week eighteen, where you know, sometimes I've got to say demanse I even impressed myself. The goal, as always is to be profitable. The underlying goal is always to not make this whole
thing look ridiculous. And going into the final week of the season, we were six games under five hundred, and we had a chance of looking ridiculous, and so you know, I took a big risk. I went against a lot of my principles, and we said we're going to bet every game on the board, with the caveat of the Bills and the Bengals because when we were recording last week's show, we didn't yet know if they were going to be replaying their game. We did, so we left
that out. So we had fourteen games, so we needed to go ten and four to finish at five hundred. We needed to go eleven and three, seventy eight percent against the spread. Almost impossible to finish above five hundred. Blue Duck Media team who produces this podcast and YouTube show, show us last week's results, ten and four. All that's eleven and three. Oh my goodness, gracious, that's the first seven games. That's six and one. We can go through them.
Kansasity might have sign and have at Vegas. Never at out Atlanta minus four against Tampa. That one. Confused Old Demonse came down the next morning. He was like, I don't get this line at all. I was like, eh, I don't think Tampa's gonna play their starters that long. Tampa jumped out seven to nothing. It's like, I don't worry about it. Took the starters out Atlanta covers Miami.
We got them plus one against the Jets. That line moved all the way to miamiree three and a half, but that would have covered anyway thanks to a safety on the final play of the game. If you had the Jets plus three and a half, Oh my goodness, gracious, Jacksonville minus six against Tennessee didn't cover Minnesota minus seven and a half against Chicago. We told you Chicago was trying to win. Get the number one pick is how could they? How could they compete Carolina plus three and
a half against New Orleans. I honestly don't know who won that game. I just know it was ten to seven, and no the Carolina one Donald was terrible. They won anyway, ten to seven. Donald's quarterback rating in that game was two point eight two point eight, and they won. For the record, I like to remind people of this, you get a quarterback rating of thirty nine point six for spiking the football. His was two point eight. Pittsburgh minus
two and a half against Cleveland. We knew Tomlin in a must win situation against the Browns, he was gonna show up. So that's six and one. Show us the next seven picks. If you would please. Indy minus two and a half against Houston. That's a loser. That's a loser because they converted a fourth and twelve and then a fourth and twenty to get in the end zone, or that would have been a winner. Giants plus fourteen against Philly. They lost by six on side kick at
the end of the game. Where the lose bys eight, I'm not sure six eight, seven, doesn't matter. They covered Dallas minus seven and a half against Washington. We were on the wrong side of that one. That was a laugher. Who's twenty six to six Washington? They covered by twenty seven and a half points. Doesn't matter. Just one loss. Denver minus two and a half against the Chargers. How right were we about this one? We said, we think Denver can win outright because the Chargers are gonna play
their backups. The Chargers because there are a bunch of dopes, played their starters almost the whole way. Denver won out right anyway. San Francisco minus fourteen against Arizona. We said they're gonna annihilate the Cardinals. First play of the game, Cardinals trick play touchdown. Oh my god, they're up seven to nothing. Doesn't matter. They rolled them Rams plus six and a half against Seattle. That game goes to overtime, Detroit plus five and a half against Screen Bay they
win outright. That puts our record on the year to fifty forty eight and two. Now, because we're fair on this, was that profitable not when you incorporate the VIG right, we would have won fifty units, we would have lost. Let me do the mask the year fifty two point eight units because you got to do the ten percent on your losses. So down two point eight units technically with the VIG but given the fact that we bet these things on Thursday, we don't have full information, finishing
about five hundred is sensational. One last thing is we're about to get to our season wraps and then we'll get to the shows. I've got a because to be fair, we had been updating this throughout the year, and I'll do it much more quickly this time. Go through our preseason bets. Baltimore we had over ten and a half. They finished at ten. That's a shame. The Lamar injury really hurt us. So that's a loss. Indy over nine
and a half, not even close. That's a loss Jacksonville over six and a half winner, Kansas City over ten and a half winner, New England under eight and a half. Oh, they came through in the end for US in a big way winner Giants under seven and a half loser, so we're three and three. San Francisco over nine and a half strong over winner by a mile. Tampa Bay. Our single favorite bet of the year was the Tampa
Bay under eleven and a half. They won eight games, so that's five and three in our preseason win total bets. We feel good about that. Make miss playoff bets Cleveland miss Playoffs winner, Denver miss Playoffs winner, New England MISSUS Playoffs winner. Denver was plus money. Cleveland, New England were minus money. Our two make miss playoffs parlays, we were close on this one. Minus one oh five was the action on New England, Atlanta, the Jets, and Seattle to
miss the playoffs. Seattle got in, so that's a loser. Kansas City, Baltimore, Indie, and San Francisco to all make the playoffs. That was plus four forty. That's a loser. So we on the make miss playoff bets, we had two losers, three winners. That's profitable, and by our season long bet Kansas City and San Francisco to be in the super Bowl. At fifty to one, it's still a lot.
So five and three in season win totals profitable, three and two and make miss playoff bets profitable, very profitable because we had plus money on a couple of them. And we'll see in the fifty to one. So our preseason bets were profitable. Our regular season finished above five hundred and now demans, sorry that you haven't been able to talk yet, but I'm so excited before we get to these picks. What are we doing here?
Eleven and three? So, like how Spotify has this like wrap thing where it does little recap.
Yeah, subscribe to this pot on Spotify and iTunes and everywhere. Go ahead.
Yeah, they did a little seasonal recap for you, a little rap version by the producer in La let me see. Uh So, first off, we've got to know for showing.
Yeah, for showing it right there.
Phographics all right, So best picks. We got Divisional Games twenty seven two. Oh, hold on, let's let's let's let's kill.
Marinate in this because this is you know why that Divisional Games twenty seven and twelve means something to me. Let's talk about this playoff weekend for just a moment. Miami Buffalo is a divisional game, Cincinnati Baltimore is a divisional game. Seattle San Francisco is a divisional game. So three of our six games this weekend our divisional games. And twenty seven and twelve what's that? Twenty times two point five? So fifty four? So we're at sixty nine
percent against the spread and divisional games. I did that, MATHO was like, Patrick Mahomes, what's that? Oh, it's completion percentage? What do you mean?
Actually, guess Patrick Mahomes is a little bit higher.
No, sixty nine percent almost exactly right. What's twenty seven over the division?
Oh?
My god, that's the what percentage is that? DeMont? Sixty nine point two?
Got that?
I like when I do stuff like that. Twenty seven and twelve, six nine percent? What's next?
So next we got road dogs twenty five fourteen and one.
So road dogs again, we can do sixty two and a half percent against the spread twenty five plus fourteen plus one sport. Yeah, sixty two and a half percent, all right, so road dogs we like? Yeah, divisional games we like keep that in mind for our six picks. That, by the way, I should have said, is the top of the show. We're picking every playoff game. We have a lifelong dream of going undefeated in the playoffs. They
made it harder. You still only have to get eleven games, right now, you have to get thirteen games, right because they added the teams. By the way, fun fact for anybody out there, no matter the format, Uh, any single elimination tournament, I don't care if it's the NCAA tournament, I don't care it's the playoffs, any single elimination tournament. Now you can quickly figure out how many games are
going to be played in the whole tournament. However many teams are in it minus one, because everybody's got to lose at least once except for the champion. So a sixty eight team in Cuba Field, you know how many games there are? Sixty seven? A fourteen team NFL playoffs, any games there are thirteen? All right, go ahead, next fading victor undefeated. Oh that's unfair, Vic rallied VIC was you know? Yeah, show Vic, it's unfair. I wouldn't let
them put that on there. You had a you you know you were I think you were sandbagging us vic Vic's you know, first weekend, I think it was zero for five, but then he rallied, so that's no problem, all right.
Next the same game parlay plus thirty two K.
That was the highlight of the gambling season. Yeah, and and that moment sharing that bet with you in your reaction huge bet. Yeah, the I mean that's exactly what it was.
It was.
It was eight hundred bucks of forty to one, all right.
Next betting NFC East teams, you were nine and two.
All right. So those are my top picks. I feel like the opposite's coming on the old Spotify raft ripoff we're doing here, what's next?
Worst picks coming in at number one is one in seven versus the Jags.
Well, so here's the thing. Here's the question that I would have here and the well one and seven involving the Jags, And I don't know about this crying the graphic they have of me. Yes, I was bad picking the Jags singularly, but overall, I think I'm the rightest man in America about the Jacks. Before the year, I said they could win the division. I bet them to make the playoffs, and I bet them to win nine games. That's right, right, all along?
All right?
What's next?
Why?
Okay, shut up? Yeah, you know what I've decided, by the way, I'm not doing that anymore. I'm not doing anymore. It's like picking your amongst your chouldren, like you have to pick a favorite, You're gonna get it wrong. All my picks are I love them all. I was bad on my locks on TV, I was bad on the right move on this podcast. They're all the picks are equal value to me. I'm not doing that anymore. Next.
Okay, twelve and eighteen for home favorites. Okay, twenty twenty eight and two in early windows.
All right, I don't you know what that that's meaningless to the early window thing. I just think that's random. If I'm twenty twenty eight and two in early windows and I finished the year forty forty eight and two overall, I guess that means I'm thirty and twenty in the non one o'clock window, which is I guess maybe noteworthy, but I'm not sure. And what is this final bullet point?
Wait, eighteen and ten in the late window.
Oh no, confusing, No, no, no, because I finished, I'd be twenty twenty eight and two in the early games and oh, copy so what I'm saying, So that would be thirty and twenty in the late games.
You know, honestly, guys, I thought when we put early windows we were talking about like games where we bet early in the line of value increased or something.
Oh no, no, I think they mean the one.
Yeah, yeah, oh and seventeen when claiming it smells it's not that funny. Oh in seventeen when claiming it smells like five and oh, that is that funny.
It's not that funny.
That's freaking hilarious.
It's not that funny. I didn't have any five and oh weeks. Okay, this was not the but you know what, maybe that means I'm having six in a week this week. That's first of all. Second of all, I had no oh in five weeks. They just cancel each other out. Wait what, Yeah, I didn't have an O five, Matt, correct us if I'm wrong. There's no way I had.
You had one and four?
No, I had a couple. I think I might add two to one in fours.
I don't know.
No, oh and five, oh and five? You gotta contemplate retirement with the If you flip a coin, the odds of getting it wrong five straight times is one in thirty two. I'm not going on five.
Are we throwing shots at Vic right now?
I told you Vic was sandbagging Vic. Vic was wanting us off his scent. He didn't want us to follow his bets. Vic. I'm with you. They're being rude to you, and I don't think it's nice. All right, we got more of these?
Uh yeah? So we got clairvoyant here like Jacksonville better in London games one and.
Oh oh, undefeated in London games. I like that, okay?
And which one was it was? It was the Seattle game?
No Seattle, No, that was Germany, okay, Oh, Seattle, London, Tampa Bay was Germany in Minnesota, New Orleans, London, Minnesota. Now, so I might have been two to zero betting in European games. I'm not sure.
I know.
I got Germany right one and oh in London, and you're in London. Go ahead, next.
Five and one betting games involving Nathaniel Hackett.
You gotta love that one, yeah, I mean I told you guys, we lost our opportunity. Now he's gone forever. But it was a wonderful I mean, it was a wonderful moment in time.
Next uh for uh yeah, four and O betting on Tom Brady.
Yeah, that's okay, that's noteworthy because he's another one coming up. Yep, six oh to one. Beating on LA teams, betting betting on LA teams. Okay, all right, no noteworthy, all right, last one because I didn't realize how long we were going to go ahead.
Blind spots betting on AFC cell teams two and twelve.
A lot of that's the Jacks. A lot of that involves the Jacks, all right, go ahead betting against uh, betting against top against the spread teams. So the best teams against the spread this year were the Giants, the Bengals in Detroit, So that means their record against the spread. Yeah, they go ahead.
Sorry, yeah, and I'm aware I was I heard something about the AFC selth in my ear.
Okay, but yea chatting against against the best the spread, Yeah, sure, I'm owen ten. But Mike Tomlin's more historic, not so much this year.
All right, go ahead, Uh you never uh you never took big spreads over seven. But we're seven to two.
When you did see, I like that a lot because I think it's smart that I didn't regularly pick huge favorites. But when I did pick a huge favorite, it was because I zeroed in on it and liked it a lot, like San Francisco last week, all right, and then lastly.
No bets on Buffalo all season.
All right. That is a blind That is a blind spot. That's not so much a coward as much as it is I tend to root against Buffalo, and I put my rooting interest ahead of my monetary interest. I didn't want to be in a spot where I had to root for the Bills. So I do agree that is a blind spot. I don't think it's a cowardly to not bet on the Bills. I think it was purely that I knewst the Bills. I bet against the Bills a lot, which is the and they're uh, you know,
and there they've been an excellent team this year. Okay, that's a great recap. It's a great job by our crew, and now we have good context for these picks. Well, we're gonna we're gonna give you the two Saturday games. First, first game of the week, San Francisco is laying nine and a half against Seattle. San Francisco is gonna win this game by at least fourteen points, likely by seventeen points. I will lay the nine and a half. Now, it should be noted prior to this season, Pete Carroll was
eight and two against Shanahan. There's a weird thing in the NFC West where Shanahan owns McVeigh. McVeigh owns Carol, and Carol owned Shanahan, and then everybody owns the Cardinals. The Cardinals are just the odd man out there. But the Niners traditionally have beat up on the Rams. Since these coach have all been together, the Rams have beat up on Seattle, and Seattle's beat up on San Francis go this year. Seattle's zero to two against San Francisco.
That is an incredibly young defense in Seattle San Francisco. While they have a young quarterback, they are so hard to defend because of how intricate and nuanced their run game is. Young defenders in particular are going to struggle against that Gino. As much as I appreciate what he's done this year, Gino didn't exactly finish the season with a flurry and Gino going against this San Francisco defense on the road I think is a recipe for disaster.
I think Seattle. I mean, if you've listened to Pete Carrol all week, he just keeps calling the Niners juggernauts. You know, unfortunately we're playing them. They're so good. I know he's just saying that, he's saying something different to his team, but he also knows it's true. Seattle is in a spot where it's cool they made the playoffs.
They probably would be going into the offseason with more momentum had Green Bay beaten Detroit, because then it's like, hey, we won our last game, we finished nine and eight. We and then you get to going on a high note. I think San Francisco absolutely rolls them. Also, I'm not sure I'm doing any teasers this weekend, but a seven point San Francisco teaser teasing them down to minus two and a half so you get them through the seven
and the three feels like an absolute must tea. If you're going to tease this weekend, that is a must include leg to San Francisco minus two and a half. So I like the Niners laying a big number. I never lay big numbers. But as you said earlier, what did you say, I'm seven and two when laying a big number and I'm twenty seven and twelve in divisional games. This checks both those boxes.
Go ahead. So first off, I got a little question, do you think do you think you know what it's gonna have above seventeen rushing yards? Since he's gonna be running around a lot of scarce. Thought about adding that in one of my parlays last night. Under I wanted to take the under.
That's a tough one. I gotta tell you you've never I I don't have a strong feel on it. Gino's not all that fast. I would air to the side of the over there, but I would. I've given you terrible parlay advice this year. You've also never dealt with and this want to play here because Seattle's not gonna
win the single worst part. Anytime you're doing a quarterback rushing prop you need to It is scary to do on a team you think is gonna win because the kneel downs at the end of the game count as negative rushing yards, and famously in the Super Bowl, well
correct because they're not gonna but that's what I'm saying. Famously, in the Chiefs Niners Super Bowl, Mahomes hit his rushing over by seven yards and then at the end of the game took three knees, but they weren't regular knees because they needed to also burn like seven seconds, so he backed up three steps on each one and lost three yards three yards, three yards and went from over by seven to under by two in the Super Bowl, where that's a huge prop bet, and his ended up
going under. So that the good thing on quarterback passing yards also averages five.
And a half yards.
Oh, that's about right. The the good thing about quarterback prop passing props is it's very, very hard to get negative passing yards. You can, you throw a screen pass, you get tackled for a loss, but you're not gonna go negative huge, right.
Probably most of your net and it's like fifteen yards throughout a game if.
That, if that, and you can't. They in college football sacks count against your passing yards, at least for team passing yards, so like so I don't know if they do for individual players, but if you get sacked for ten yards, it counts as negative ten passing yards. Uh, that doesn't happen in the NFL, all right, Uh, go ahead. San Francisco is on a ten game winning streak right now, and teams on a ten game ten game win streak are two thirteen against the spread in their first playoff game. Yeah,
I get that. That usually means those teams are over valued because of the Brock Purty factor. I think the Niners are still undervalue. I think the people are still treating it like it's a rookie quarterback in his first playoff game. But that team is quarter back independent, so I'm not worried about that. All right. Next game, guys, it's the Jags in a playoff game at home, and I'm getting points. What the do you think I'm gonna do here? Jack? How dare you.
Against the Jags?
Plus two and a half against the Chargers. Mike Williams banged up for the Chargers because Staley's a dope, and played him in that whole game until he had to be carted off the field as back injury. He didn't practice Wednesday. We'll see if he practices Thursday. We're recording this before that's release. On the West Coast, they're at home Trevor. How about this for a fact? Is humble? You know how I always bring up Trevor's high school and college career. Yeah, all right, Tomanse. NFL games are
on Sunday. Winter college football games typically what.
Day of the weekly Saturday, Saturday.
Trevor played three years of college football. In high school, playoff games are off and on Saturday. The regular season games in high school are on Friday.
I'm gonna say that he's used to playing on Saturday.
So I'm gonna say he's never lost on Saturday in his football career, high school, college, pro. Look it up, America. Trevor Lawrence undefeated on Saturdays. That's impressive for a guy played three years of big time college football. He went forty eight and two or thirty eight and two or something. In college. He only lost twice, and those two losses were in a playoff scenario where they were not being
played on Saturday. Also, going back to college, Trevor Lawrence the year they won the national championship, had one bad game when he was a starter. That was the ACC championship game to get into the playoffs, and then don'll playoff. He was excellent. Jags, Titans it was not the ACC championship game. It was the de facto a FC South championship game. He didn't play that great, But now he's into the playoffs, he's gonna be awesome. Staley's gonna make
some head scratching mistakes, the Jags getting points. They're gonna win out right. They're at home, Boocket, what's the problem?
All right? So the problem is, I mean, you're obviously one and seven betting with the Jags, but okay, clearly you don't care about that when the Jags allow more than fourteen points. Though, Trevor Lawrence is six and twenty two. But I'm assuming since it's Saturday, this doesn't really matter.
Well, no, it's not because it's Saturday. It's his thing. How could he be six and twenty two when this is his rookie year and they don't play twenty eight games? Uh so I'm not I'm not factoring in anything that happened last year. I will tell you something that happened this year. The Jags played the Chargers and the Jags won thirty eight to ten. Thirty eight to ten. The Jags are winning out right. Trevor is coming to Arrowhead with it. It's gonna be mahomes Trevor with a trip
to the AFC Championship game on the line book. It that is happening, unless, of course, either the Bills or the Bengals get upset, then he won't get to come to Arrowhead because they receive. So I'm not worried.
How are you feeling if Trevor Lawrence goes and beats the Chiefs?
It's literally the only scenario where where the Chiefs win. I'm fine what people on television fans are gonna mock me because the guy that I am the biggest national advocate of beat my team. No, it's the only scenario where the Chiefs don't win the Super Bowl where I still win. So I'm fine with it. We got four more games to pick. We're gonna take a quick break, come right back. What's Right? Wild Card Weekend Gambling Show.
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All right, welcome back. In episode one seventeen our wild Card weekend gambling show. We already gave you Jacks plus two and a half and the Niners minus nine and a half. All Right, we have two Sunday games that we don't as we record this Thursday morning, definitively know who the quarterback is. Okay, I obviously don't love that, but we're gonna keep doing these picks as scheduled and we'll deal with it. The first one is Miami at Buffalo. Miami is getting thirteen and a half points. I believe
Teddy Bridgewater is gonna play. If Sky Thompson plays, I'm bleeped. Okay, I'm just gonna flatly say it. If Teddy plays, this line will go back closer to eleven. Miami has played Buffalo incredibly close both times all year. It's the third matchup Miami has shown that they can deal with the cold, as they did when they almost Miami was up twenty nine to twenty one in that game a few weeks ago. Furthermore, I think it's now okay to say this. I hope
it doesn't come across as two as insensitive. Now that we know Damar's healthy, I think he'll probably be at this game we can talk about. I think the actual impact of not having Deamar Hamlin the football player for a game like this so tomorrow was their backup safety stepped in valiantly for their all pro safety. Now they're
on their third string safety against Tyreek Kill and Jalen Waddle. Furthermore, if a team can ever look somewhat unimpressive, scoring thirty five against the Patriots, I feel like that was Buffalo this weekend. In this one regard to Manse, they had two kick return touchdowns. They're only five in the league all year. They had two, So that's not happening again. It was a beautiful human and football moment. I don't think that's happening again. Mac Jones looked like a real
quarterback against this Buffalo defense. Teddy is better than Mac Jones. Now. He also threw three picks. I am not picking Miami to win the football game, obviously. However, thirteen and a half points for a divisional rematch when Miami won one and had a fourth quarter lead in the second is way too many points. I am taking Miami plus thirteen and a half.
So this bet actually hits two year blind spots, first of all, betting buffalo and betting on a big favorite.
Okay, but also hits two of my strongest points, road dogs. I'm twenty five and fourteen divisional games. I'm twenty seven and twelve. There's a road dog in a divisional rematch. I just think thirteen and a half is too many points. I again, if Skyler Thompson is playing, this thing, probably is fourteen and a half, and I lose value on a point. I think Teddy's gonna play. I think Miami is going to at the very least be in it
for a back door cover. They could be down twenty in the fourth quarter and I could still be alive. I'll take the plus thirteen and a half.
Double digit underdogs are three and eleven against the spread and playoffs since twenty eleven.
Okay, okay, I'm taking Miami plus thirteen and a half. You're not talking me out of it. Minnesota minus three against the Giants. I think people have gone a touch.
Too far on the Vikings in the negative way. Okay, so you wasn't a talk What do you mean, No, go ahead? I mean, I feel like you've never been very high on them.
I'm not.
I'm not high on the bike.
Season, even when they were really rolling.
Yeah, agreed. And I think because I have such a valuable trusted voice in the marketplace that my Vikings pessimism has infiltrated the marketplace, and now they're slightly undervalued. I think Minnesota in this spot should be a four point favorite. There are three point favorites. They're at home up, they objectively have the better quarterback, they objectively have the scariest player in the game in Justin Jefferson, and their biggest weakness is their past defense. And the Giants don't like
to pass the football. Do I think Daniel Jones is going on the road and getting a playoff win? I don't do. I think the Vikings are a contender. No, do I think that they should be a four point favorite.
At least.
I do. Minnesota minus three possibly a push, But the line is where it is is our pick? What's up?
A little bit of a change of a change of heart? Why you took this exact same match up earlier at plus four on the Giants.
When they played earlier.
Yeah, yeah, and you say that they have like the better quarterback and everything.
Okay, I took the Giants plus four Minnesota one by three. It's a big point, isn't it. I took the Giants getting four. The Vikings won on a sixty one yard field goal at the gun. Cash my bet I done. If that spot was minus or plus three, that would have just been a push. That's a big point. It's a big point.
Qub's making their first NFL playoffs start of going seventeen thirty six and one against the spread.
Yeah, and listen, I'm obviously on Brock Purty making his first playoff start, but I'm against Daniel Jones making his. Okay, this game is I almost shouldn't pick this game because it's Baltimore plus eight and a half at Cincinnati. If if Lamar plays, it'll be plus four. If Snoop Hountley plays, it'll be plus seven. If Anthony Brown plays, who played this team last week, it'll probably move to ten. I am.
I believe that there is an outside chance Lamar plays and if not, Snoop Puntley's gonna play go ahead.
I'm just kind of it's gonna be kind of this. I just thought of it. Oh, this guy, like, what if that guy watches the podcast?
Which guy Anthony Brown?
Him?
Anthony Brown listen. I enjoyed watching New Oregon. He didn't expect to be starting a playoff game either. He knows it's true. And if you are watching the podcast, Anthony getting the playbook, buddy, we got you plus eight and a half. Here's the thing. So sincint Joe Burrow has struggled against one defense this year more than any other, the Ravens. He threw for two hundred and fifteen yards, then two hundred and seventeen yards. He has one touchdown.
He has one turnover. In their two matchups, Baltimore won the first one, Cincinnati won the second one this past weekend, in a game they should have been able to blow him out. They didn't quite. They blew him out early and then Baltimore kind of clawed back. Additionally, Lyell Collins, the Bengals right tackle, is out and Alex Kappa their right guard is probably out. That Baltimore defense has been
sensation absolutely sensational, particularly since getting Roquan Smith. So even if the quarterback is as big of a discrepancy as you're ever gonna get in the postseason, other than Mahomes versus the decaying Ben Roethlisberger in the first round last year, Burrow versus Huntley, or Burrow versus Anthony Demonte's buddy Anthony Brown,
Baltimore is gonna run the ball, play great defense. That is too many points for a divisional rematch with an excellent coach and an excellent defense, all take the plus eight and a half.
Even not knowing who the quarterback is.
Well, I gotta you say that, but no matter what side I pick, I gotta I don't know who the quarterback is. Yeah, obviously I would maybe wait, I'll I one of my one of the guys at my poker game got so mad at me, so I was playing. I played poker twice this week, Monday and Wednesday. So Monday I got there and this guy's like, hey, I want to put a huge bet in on the Bengals. Should I wait or do it? Now? They were six and a half and I was like, I think Lamar
is gonna play, and the line moves to four. He's like really, I'm like, yeah, I think he is. He's like, okay, I'm gonna wait. I think this guy's gonna bet like twenty thousand dollars in the game. And then I got there yesterday in the line and.
He was heated.
He was big. Mad's like what the half man? I'm like, you know, sorry, I don't know what to tell you.
I mean, it's not the same game.
Partly, No, he waited to bet. He wanted to bet Cincinnati, and he he could have got him at minus six and a half, and on my advice, waited and now they're month this last game. No, no, no, the game coming up. Listen. He wanted to bet on this weekend's game on Cincinnati. Cincinnati was a six and a half point favorite, so he would only have to lay six and a half. I told him to wait. They are now an eight and a half point favorite, so he has to lay eight and a half. So he's upset
with me. All right. Lastly, I mean we've been you know, throttling towards this point all year. Tom Brady getting the best draw possible and all of a sudden showing up in the conference championship game Tampa Bay plus two and a half against Dallas. I think they went out right. I did get this at plus three early in the week, and I got this on the money line early in the week. The Cowboys are coming off their worst game of the year. Tampa Bay. Brady said, it is the
healthiest they've been all year. They might have Ryan Jensen back, their Pro Bowl center who's been out all year. The secondary's healthier, They're at home. This is a game that the Tom Brady flatly wins, and we start having a real conversation about Dak Prescott and about Mike McCarthy. The Bucks can't run the I don't think they'll need to.
The Brady and Evans combo will work. And also I pointed this out on TV after Jason Garrett said on Sunday Night Football, the Cowboys on turf on grass splits are unbelievable. On turf they are eleven and one, scoring twenty seven a game and allowing eighteen a game. On grass, they are one in four, scoring twenty a game and allowing twenty eight a game. So the offense gets worse by a touchdown. The defense gets worse by ten points when you go from turf to grass. Tampa Bay is grass.
And by the way, the cowboys one loss on turf all year was against Tampa Bay Week one, nineteen to three. Tampa wins. Mike McCarthy's on the hot seat for Sean Payton. Who's real questions about? Is Dak Prescott just Kirk cat with better with Mattress commercials.
I like Tampa here, all right, So obviously your four and oh bet with Tom Brady, so I'm messing with it, yet say something else. Brady has failed to cover as a home dog only twice in his career, against Peyton Manning in two thousand and five and Joe Burrow this season.
All right, I think that last stat is a little misleading, because I bet Tom Brady hasn't been a home dog more than seven or eight times over the last fifteen years. His Brady teams at home would not be underdogs very often. I love Tampa here. We talked a lot about this game in the Thursday Live show, and we've talked a lot about it on TV, so I don't need to get into it further. But Tampa plus two and a half is our pick. We've got some we might have
some exotics. We definitely have an offer. We'll do all that as we wrap the Gambling Show next, What's right? All right? Welcome back? In final segment, Wildcard Weekend Gambling Show, quick recap of our six picks. San Francisco laying nine and a half, the Jags getting two and a half, Miami getting thirteen and a half, Minnesota laying three, Baltimore plus six and a half, and Tampa plus two and a half, Baltimore plus eight and a half. I don't
know what I said, sorry about that. We have a we we don't have a lock this week because we're not doing locks anymore. I've decided we're done with locks. With all our picks, we love them equally, we're not doing locks. We do, however, have a couple exotics for you. So you guys demand say, you guys have a teaser that I think you want to suggest to me, but that's go ahead.
And the seven point tease of the Bengals, Bills, Bucks, and Niners.
Okay, so teasing the Bengals, that would be teasing the Bengals to a point and a half, Teasing the Bills down to six and a half, teasing the Bucks up to nine and a half and teasing the Niners down to two and a half. That's not a terrible teaser. I'm not gonna I'm not gonna lie. There's actually going across key numbers. But it's a four team teaser. I'm gonna stay away from that one. I'm not You're not no, you're in on it.
Yeah.
That makes me a little nervous for you, buddy. It also means we're gonna be have conflicting rooting interests on some of this stuff, which I never enjoy watching. You know, let don't put it in just yet. Okay, let's discuss. Just don't put it in just yet. Here's the teaser. I'm gonna make a two team, seven point Saturday teaser. We are teasing the Niners down to two and a half from nine and a half, and we are teasing the Jags up from two and a half to nine
and a half. So the key numbers of three, four, six, seven, eight, all of it, we are coming through them in both directions. The Niners have to win by a field goal. The Jags just either have to win or lose by less than ten that's the teaser we're doing. Also full transparency, I did not get good line value on any of this, however, and you know how I know I didn't get good
line value. Right now, my cash out option is for half of my original stake, which kind of sucks considering the fact none of these games have kicked off.
But that always happens, so I get bad line value all the time.
Man, it's the worst. So I Monday morning put this bet in of my six picks this weekend, the Niners minus ten, so I lost a half point of line value, the Dolphins plus eleven so I lost two and a half points of line value, the Jags on the money line, Tampa on the money line Baltimore plus six and a half lost two key points of line value, and the
Vikings minus three. That is sixty three to one. So though the Jags to win, the Bucks to win, the Dolphins and Ravens, Vikings and Niners to all cover, that's my parlay. I have actually placed. What's the offer from you guys before we wrap it up?
Okay, this week's offer is the Jags money line or plus four fourteen Wait, yeah, plus one fourteen, Trevor over two hundred and forty eight passing yards San Francisco minus sixteen and a half as a plus one ninety six all this combined for uh plus what do you call that? Eleven eleven to one? No? Eleven to one? Sorry?
Yeah, be eleven to one plus eleven two hundred and forty eight point five to be exactly two hundred and forty nine passing yards. Demase, I'm taking that offer. Are gonna blow out the Seahawks. The Jacks are obviously gonna win. I'm a little nervous on the Trevor over because this might be a big Travis etn game. But Trevor in his first playoff game, is gonna play well, especially after being shaky against the Titans. Eleven to one, we accept that offer. What's up?
I gotta admit, man, I'm gonna take this offer. I've never even taken the offer, and I'm the one always giving it out. I'm never taking it once. And it's like it's.
Hit a few times. It's hit a few times. Our offers have been good. We haven't really done a lot with it, talked about it much because we're a serious operation and these are all wackied. Twelve to one twenty to one long shots. But yeah, playoff weekend. We're in on it, all right. We will see you guys on Monday. Demonte real quick. Do you smell that smell?
Oh? In eighteen?
Do you know? Do you do?
You do?
You know what that smells like? Smells like what six? And zero? Smells like six and smells like six and oh and will be more than halfway or almost halfway to our thirteen and oh dream yeah, so at least if you do, if you don't end up going six and oh, you will be zero and one for times that you said smells like six and oh it's different. It's usually it's five, and oh, now it's it's six and oh, smells like six and oh. We'll see you guys Monday. What's right, ye