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Welcome in episode seventy three What's Right, Nick Right, the podcast and YouTube show, It is our Week three NFL gambling show and.
Demons.
I'm a little stressed out.
Yeah, i'd be too.
What does that mean?
What does that mean?
I'd be stressed out if if what I had your betting career.
Okay, okay, a guy's allowed to have a couple of rough weeks. Week one, I got a little unlucky.
Went two and three. Week two, let's show it to you.
I can't say I got unlucky because I did get unlucky on the lock in Baltimore. I'm still angry about that. But I got very lucky to cover Arizona. But those other two misses green Bay minus ten was good, Arizona plus five and a half. I got lucky my lock of the week Baltimore minus three and a half. I still can't believe Miami had that comeback. But those other two on the right hand column, Cincinnati minus seven, Minniso plus threo just bad picks. They're just bad picks. So
we're shaking up the snow globe this morning. We're changing the order of the podcast. We're giving you the picks right off the top. Our brain trust. Gabe and Matt were like, Nick, if you do the picture off the top, why are people going to stick around for the rest of the show, because the lock's coming later the you know the offer from demons Or Survived pick, which thankfully Survivor's been brutal this year. We've given out two winners in Survivor. We gave out Baltimore and Green Bay first
two weeks. So we're still alive in Survivor, and I hope someone's jotting down to make sure we can't give out you know, team a second time. But I made some I went back and rewatched our episode Week two Gambling Show. I made some grievous strategic errors. I went against some of my principles. At one point on the Cincinnati pick, I said, and I quote, I hate laying a touchdown on the road, and then I did it. I don't feel badly about the Baltimore pick. I don't
at all. And I know I said I got lucky on the Arizona thing, but I said the Arizona the back door cover is gonna be open for them all game.
They ended up turning into a backdoor win.
But we're gonna We're gonna get back to what two of the last three years prior to this best I can tell I had, well.
Not best I can tell.
I know I had profitable public records above fifty five percent against the spread, and one of the last three years, I think I was the best of all national sports media members. Handicapper, We're gonna get back to it. Two and three weeks are not good, but they're not crushing. We aught one four and one week and we're back above five hundred. That's all we need this week is a nice four and one week.
The way this works.
Is I give you five picks I give, and then I give the categories of stay away, be careful and perfectly priced. Let's demonse, get right into the picks.
Let's do it and do it.
What's our first pick?
Nicks picks?
We got Baltimore minus two and a half in New England. Okay, Baltimore again.
Yeah, you know what, Baltimore.
We picked them week one as our lock, right, it did mean well, Baltimore. He picked them week two in our lock. I thought they were gonna do me well. Some bad shit happened.
I almost wanted to make Baltimore.
My lock again, and I was like, you know what, let's ease off on the lock part of it. But Baltimore laying less than a field goal right now. The injury report is terrifying. As we record this Thursday morning, Baltimore's injury report is is fifteen people long. Do I think mac Jones can take advantage of it? No where. The Patriots lucky to escape last week thanks to Nelson agil Are making the best play of his career on a terrible mac Jones pass against the bad Sewers. Yes,
did Lamar play a great game last week? Yes? Does Belichick historically struggle a bit against the mobile quarterbacks. Cam gave him trouble. Russ when he used to run around, gave him trouble. Yes, Also, we don't want to overreact to what happened last week. Going into the year, all my study told me we're long on Baltimore, we're short on New England. We're now getting the Ravens. We're laying less than a field goal. We're in it being of laying less than a field goal. I've never seen a
gambling week like this. Sixteen games, eight of them the line is less than three. Eight of these games the line is between a point and two and a half points. Never seen it. There is not a single huge favorite this week. Fifteen of the sixteen games the line is six and a half or less. The one game that is more than six and a half, it's seven. It's a brutal survivor week. It's a brutal gambling week, which is why we got in the lab late into the
night to find our five picks. The first one is Baltimore minus two and a half.
We're riding Baltimore again.
Ride the Baltimore train to death. Well, we'll see, we'll see.
We told you last week. See the other thing.
You know what frustrated me last week when I say I screwed up my process.
There were a few process errors. One was like, don't.
Bet this game.
You don't want to watch it, that's the way to.
Make The other one was the moment I heard those dopes Victor and Matt the all in on Pittsburgh. I put New England in the be careful category. I should have put them in the picks whenever. And that's you know what. We'll see how this week goes. But we might have to incorporate into the pre show analysis in the group chat, asking everyone what their favorite bet of the week is and see if there's a little group
think on the square side from our producers. Okay, Baltimore minus two and a half first one.
Next, Minnesota six point favorites at home against Detroit.
Sorry, Matt, I offended, Matt, Victory's not offended. Victor knows we're gonna lay the six with Minnesota. Minnesota minus six.
I think that's I think that's crazy. Tell me what I mean. Only the only thing I'm thinking about is the fact that they're at home.
But I just feel tell me why you think it's crazy though, I.
Just think the Lions don't look that bad. The Lions looking good. I don't think.
The offensive scored the most points in football.
I don't think the Vikings have have done that well. I mean, they just got their asses kicked yep. And then I just I just don't see it. And then six points.
I feel even better now. Now I don't like Minnesota on the short week, I will admit that. But Minnesota coming off an embarrassing performance on national TV. We're now in a one pm window where Kirk Cousins is comfortable. The Lions may be riding a little too high. Justin Jefferson. The Lions defense has not been able to stop anybody. Justin Jefferson. Gonna have a field day. A field day. This is a game Minnesota's got to have. We're not at seven and a half. I feel a little differently.
The reason at six is because of what demands just said, and so it doesn't look that good.
Detroit's been fun.
All of a sudden. If if this game we're in Detroit, it would just be a pick them. Come on, come on, I don't listen. I don't love laying the points. I'd rather when you're in a slump gambling go with the underdogs. But I don't think I'm in a slump. I don't I think that I win against my principles.
I think you're at five hundred right now.
I'm actually below five hundred and four and six.
But against my principles on the Cincinnati bet, and aside from that, I've liked the process of a lot of these things. I think this is a bounce back spot for Minnesota. I don't think Jared Goff is going to continue to play the best football of his life all year long. I think this is a game that you don't see much that is nobody's nobody's locked in on. Because this is a game that is seventeen to three at halftime. Minister and Minister, I think Detroit's offense grinds
to a bit of a halt. Temporarily, Minnesota has a nice, cool, comfortable, easy victory. Justin Jefferson bounces back, Kirk Cousins bounces back after his brutal game, Dalvin Cook bounces back, and Detroit which is a nice story but coming off it's first time favored in a couple of years.
Cousin bounces back from his terrible game.
Yeah, I mean Kirk Cousins is not going to be awful every game. This is a get right spot. Minnesota minus six, put it down, might be a Survivor pick.
We'll see next.
Ustin plus two and a half in Chicago. Yeah, you really want to watch it? Justin Fields versus Davis Miller's showdown.
I don't and that to me In week two, I was like, Oh, you don't want to watch this game.
Don't bet this game. That is not how this works, right.
We have to be aesthetically agnostic. We can't worry about, Oh, this is gonna be a fun game to watch. That's why we're putting action on it. That's not how you make money. You know, how you make laying less than a field goal against the Bears.
Sorry, I said that wrong.
I'm not even laying a field goal getting points against the Bears.
Pardon me? Why are the Bears favored over anybody?
Why?
Someone tell me? Now, I understand getting the two and a half. You'd much rather this be three, obviously, you'd rather it be three. But Houston, I think they play hard for Lovey Smith. Davis Mills knows if he doesn't play well, his jobs on the line. The Bears clearly don't trust justin fields to throw. The offensive line is horrible, just horrible, and Chicago's now the.
Team on the short week.
I simply can't pass up the value of getting points playing a team that might end up with the worst record in football this year. Chicago. I know they won Week one in the monsoon in Trey lancemca's first start, you know, since being anointed the starter. I get all that, and no, I'm not excited about watching this game, but
I like the rookie running back for Houston. I like that Houston understands that after a let's call it frisky week one, that they let them get away from them at the very end and they ended up having to settle for a tie. That they were underwhelming to say the least in Week two. But there were things in the Broncos game where defensively, just like in the Colts game, you're like, oh, this Texans defense is interesting. And the
Texans have covered both times this year. They covered the nine against Denver, they covered whatever they were against Indy I think eight. Now they're only getting two and a half, but they're playing far and away the worst team that they've played. I think Chicago's far worse than Indy. I'm not gonna be watching a lot of this game. I'm not gonna act like I am. But Houston getting points at Chicago, we like it. Houston plus two and a half next, all.
Right, Jacksonville plus seven playing the Chargers in La Okay.
We know the Chargers have no home field. We know Jacksonville is I believe deserves to be two and zero. A defensive breakdown, a few drop touchdowns in week one is the reason they're not two and Oh. Jacksonville looked awesome on both sides of the ball in Week two against Indy the Chargers. Now, what the Chargers have going for them is the extra rest they played on Thursday. Right, However, I think the Jags could win this game. I'm not picking them to win. I think they could win this game.
I definitely expect this game to be close and getting the full seven. Even if Jacksonville is getting beat by two scores. The back door is gonna be opened the whole game and Jacksonville is going to keep throwing the football. Jacksonville is gonna keep throwing it to get Trevor. They I think they want to build up Trevor's confidence. They want to build up his numbers. So there's so many scenarios where this where Jacksonville can cover this seven even
if they lose. Additionally, now, am I a little worried about the Chargers pass rush against the Jags offensive line? I am? However, what do we know about Justin Herbert? The Chiefs just broke his ribs. Now he's limited in practice, but he's expected to play. They're gonna inject him. They're gonna be paying killing essentially with morphine. How about this, Demansey. You don't know this. Justin Herbert got his first career start because two years ago this week, Tyrod Taylor had
the same injury. Before the game, the team doctor went to inject him with a painkiller in his ribs, put the needle in too far and punctured his lung. Punctured Tyrod Taylor's lung the Chargers team doctor. So Herbert had to make an emergency start almost beat the Chiefs that game in his first start ever. Two things, One is Tyrod Taylor just sued the team for the doctor five million bucks. Second of all, it's the same doctor. He didn't lose his job. He's the guy that's going to
be injecting Justin Herbert with the same painkilling thing. But here's why I think it's noteworthy. The Chargers are not going to be if they have a lead late, They're not going to put Justin Herbert in jeopard They're going to be running the ball just trying to get home. I'm not worried about the Chargers being up six and then throwing for a late touchdown. They want to have Justin Herbert have his few pass attempts at you know, break glass in case of emergen on the Justin Herbert rocket.
So the idea that they're gonna blow out the Jags in this context, I think it's low. They also have a crummy injury report. At the moment, the Jags of the cleanest injury report in football. It's the one game of the weekend where you're getting a full touchdown Jacksonville plus seven. That was the other thing that screwed me up last week. I was high on the Jags preseason. I bet them in Week one they were part of my picks, and I felt like I got kind of.
Screwed at the end.
And last week, if you remember on the show, I said I liked the Jags. The Jags had beaten Indy in Indy or in Jacksonville like more than five straight years. The Colts didn't look good in Week one. There were so many signals to me to go with the Jags. But I said to myself, Ah, do I really you know? Maybe I'm just wrong about the Jaguars. Do I really want them to be I think I said twenty percent of my card the first two weeks of the year, and I stayed away from him when I shouldn't have.
We're back on them. Jacksonville plus seven Herbert banged up Jags, have a lot of ways to cover.
Small chance to win. Jags plus seven.
Next San fran minus a pointing a half in Denver.
No love for the home field Denver team and hasn't Russ always owned the forty nine ers that was.
In Seattle Pete Carroll the Russ part. Here's where we're at on this until proven otherwise. If the spread is less than three and Denver is playing a good coach, Nathaniel Hackett, is a must fade blindly bet against Hackett until proven Otherwise. If the other team we know is a good coach and you're laying less than a field goal.
There is no reason.
To have any faith in Nathaniel Hackett's operation, his ability to get plays in anything. The Bronco crowd is already angry. The Niners, on the other hand, because the players do have a true affinity for Jimmy Garoppolo, might be playing with a little more energy. I Russ looks like a shell of himself. All of these things to me. I know it's in Denver, and I know it's a desperation spot for Denver. I don't think Denver's very good. Their
coach is utterly incompetent. Russ has been terrible. And San Francisco I'm laying less than a field goal. Now, I understand another road favorite that I'm betting. But a road favorite of less than three is so different than a road favorite of six plus. So all those reasons also one note on Nathaniel Hackett. Ben Solack wrote a whole article about this. I referenced it on but I want to reiterate it here. There was I mean, he has been in so far over his head. A lot of
us are like, can he really be this bad? I mean, he did get this, get a head coaching job, he interviewed and got the job. Now, granted, keep in mind they got new ownership in Denver. Rob Walton, the Walmart air bought the team since he was hired, so he's not gonna have loyalty to him. But it's like, how did he get the job? And then Solac reminded us that Denver thought they were getting Aaron Rodgers. They hired him as Aaron Rodgers bait, so I don't think he
was Aaron Rodgers offensive coordinator. Then Collinsworth told us Rogers loved him because they can played darts together and he made him laugh, not because he was some genius schematically. So January twenty seventh, Nathaniel Hackett gets hired. Denver was the number one team everyone thought Rogers was going to. Two days later, Rogers resigns in Green Bay, Denver. Panics makes the rust trade. But they hired a guy because they thought it would mean Rogers would go there a
means to an end exactly right. Me if some up and coming podcasting platform was like, Hey, no, we're gonna make the face of our sports unit demons, and then I resigned with Fox, they're gonna be.
Like, oh boy, let's see how this thing works.
And everyone's like, oh man Demanse sure seems to know a lot about basketball struggles with the other stuff. Why'd you make him the face.
Of your whole enterprise. It's like, well, I thought someone might go with him.
Uh So all this is until proven. Otherwise, if you have to lay less than three points and the opposing team has what I consider to be a top ten coach auto bet, San Francisco minus a point and a half. So there's our five picks. We're gonna go over the other eleven games on the slate next, and then we'll give you our locks. There's the five picks. Baltimore minus one and a half, Houston getting two and a half, San Francisco minus one and a half, Jacksonville getting seven,
Minnesota laying six. Only one home team on our card this week, very odd week, half the card being point point and a half, two or two and a half point lines. I've never seen it before, but we're working through it. There's our five. We'll be right back.
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All Right, welcome back in episode seventy three. What's right, Nick Rdit's our Week three gambling show. We just gave you our five picks of the week. Now we have all the other games fall into three buckets. Stay away, be careful and perfectly priced. Stay away games or games were either the weather, the injury report, or too many questions make it something that I just don't have confidence in betting demons.
Let's go through them. What our state?
Do we do?
These?
One by one? I think we do?
What's our first stay away?
Cincinnati minus five at the New York Jets.
This isn't a shit and Joe Burrow turning on at some point like what this isn't going to keep happening?
Okay, So let's talk about this one. There you see all four games of stay Away Pittsburgh, Cleveland, New Orleans, Carolina, Vegas and Tennessee and Cinceanne the Jets. Let's start with CINCINNTAI the Jets. I think Cincinnati is gonna win the Jets. I understand they got a nice win last week. It
also I don't blame Nick Chubb for what happened. But if Kareem Hunt doesn't go out of bounds, or if Nick Chubb just goes down, or if the Jet the Browns defense doesn't self immolate on back to back possessions, or if they get an on side kick, the Jets a zero and two and looked at is one of the worst teams in football right so, and I think Sinat is still going to make the playoffs. Why is
it a stay away? Cincinnati right now appears to be so poorly coached and so unable to keep Joe Burrow upright, I can't lay five points against any team that might have any semblance of a pass rush now in Cincinnati's defense, if you do have a shaky offensive line. This two worst players in the league to play in weeks one and Week two, or TJ. Watt and Michael Parks the
two best edge rushers in football. The Jets don't have somebody like that, so I I don't know that the Jets are going to be able to take advantage the way the Steelers and Cowboys did. But I'm not betting the Jets getting less than a touchdown against any good team.
I'm just not.
I think this line should probably be seven and a half, like it was for Cincinnati against Dallas. I'm also, however, not going to bet the Bengals until they put together one good half of football, much less one good game. So I'm staying away.
Next all right, New Orleans minus two and a half at Carolina.
All Right, Yeah, I listen. The Saints offense is a disaster. The Panthers offense is a disaster. They keep Carolina has been getting, has been the underdog and getting less than a field goal every game this year, and they can't cover. I I'm just I have no feel on this whatsoever. I want to believe in Carolina. Baker's been awful. I don't believe in New Orleans. I don't want to lay points with New Orleans on the road.
It's a stay away.
There's too many questions about either team's offense being able to do anything. Usually in that instance, it's like grab the points. But when the points is less than a field goal, the points aren't quite as useful.
So we're staying away.
Next all right, Pittsburgh plus four and a half at Cleveland.
All right, So this is stay away for this reason.
Why are we staying away from betting against Minchester Bisky though.
Because it would be laying points with Jakobe Bursseatt. That's why it's a stay away. Now. Usually, when two bad quarterbacks play each other and you're getting more than a field goal, you'd bet Pittsburgh plus the four and a half, and I had on my card initially Pittsburgh plus four and a half. That was and it's the Thursday night game, so when people hear this, this game will have been played. It's been played tonight. So you're saying, why are we're
betting against Mitch Trubisky. I almost bet on Mitch Trubisky because I'm getting four and a half points, right, and it's Tomlin. It's the division. I expected to be close, but Pittsburgh looked so bad last week, and the Browns were two minutes away from looking pretty good. Throughout the first two weeks. Week one, they beat Baker in the revenge game. Week two, they're beating up the Jets until
they blow it at the end. I just I can't lay four and a half with uh Brissette the Steelers with know what what I think might be Trubisky's last game. I think they might go to Kiney Pickett because they have the long week, you know, Thursday to the next Sunday. This to me, it's just if I was going to better side, it be Pittsburgh plus four and a half. But Cleveland's running game has been so efficient, so deadly, that I do worry. They just run the ball down
Pittsburgh's throat and it's Dondra Kobbersett game. My lean is Pittsburgh. But I'm staying away, all right. Last one?
All right?
Those Vegas minus two at Tennessee. Yep, both these.
Teams are just gross right now. Tennessee's awful. Vegas has to feel terrible. I have no idea what we're getting from either of these teams.
I'm staying away. There's no more analysis there.
I looked at it. I was like, if Vegas was favored by three, then I would take Tennessee as a home favorite as a home dog. But at two it's not enough that these lines this week are so hard. It's not enough. I don't feel comfortable after the way the Raiders blew that game betting them as road favorites over anybody. I also don't feel comfortable betting Tennessee as awful as they've looked. When I'm getting less than a
field goal. It's a stay away, all right. Next, all right, we go to be careful category.
We are now in the be careful category category, And first up is Philly minus six and a.
Half at Washington. Yeah, the whole media is on Philly. What's up with you? All right? Still not there yet?
Well, and it's not that I'm not there yet. The short week concerns me a bit also, And the other games were discussed are Casey Andy and Dallas at the Giants. But here's the other aspect here, right, I don't think anyone is gonna bet Washington. And the fact that this thing is staying at six and a half and not moved to seven or seven and a half, to me, they are daring you to bet Philly. Washington looks like
they're a mess. Philly looks awesome. It's less than a touchdown, and that is the vintage be careful spot that Philly. Right now, Jalen Hurts is like third and MVP candidacy. The Eagles are a super Bowl team. Ron Rivera. People are talking about him getting fired. It's a divisional game. You're on the road. In order to cover, you've got to win by a touchdown or more, and everyone is gonna be on you be careful because I feel like
they are daring you to bet the Eagles. I don't have the guts there to bet Washington because I think the Eagles could blow them out. It's a vintage be careful spot, stay away from it.
Next Casey minus five and a half at Indy.
Yeah, so, by the way, you don't you don't think they're gonna smoke Indy and he just got shut out by Jacksonville.
Lest I do think they're gonna smoke Indy. Okay, mahomes the greatest September quarterback of all time.
Greatest September quarterback of all time. What a title?
So let me hold on, well, let me just like uh hold on.
The Bills called the best September team.
Yeah, I actually Yeah.
This year they have been.
Here's Mahomes though in his career he's played fifteen This courtesy of James Palmer. Patrick Mahomes has played fifteen games in September. His record is thirteen and two. That is the best in NFL history. He averages in September three hundred As far as winning percentage starts, he averages three hundred and twenty two yards per game passing in September. You where do you think that is in NFL history? It's the best. He averages eight point seven yards per attempt in September.
Where do you think that is.
In NFL history?
It's the best.
It's the best He has in his career in September forty eight touchdowns, three interceptions. Where do you think that ranks and NFL history? Oh, it's the best. And his pass writing in September is one twenty two whording that ranks in NFL history.
Oh, it's the best.
That is.
That is not my tweet. That's from James Palmer of the NFL Network. James Palmer, who used to work in Houston, And there is a big you know that giant Houston sign off the highway in Houston. One of the I always it's like the big colorful letters. It's like it's oh yeah, yeah, yeah. James Palmer and I one time climbed it and drank beers atop it in the middle of the night. That's a true story.
That's not a true story.
I swear to God.
I'm talking about the the little on like the almost a bridge liking thing.
Yeah, off the side of the highway.
You guys climbed it.
We climbed the oh, sat on it and drank beers.
I'm just imagining, like, how does that even?
He lived right behind it?
Is that his house? He used to work in Houston now it works for the NFL network. All right, check drank some beers. What'd you say?
I said, all right, it checks out.
Yeah, it's not okay. So I just gave you all those Chiefs numbers. So why am I not laying less than a touchdown with them when I do think they're going to blow out Indy? Seems too easy, seems too easy. Indy looks awful, but they're desperate. Jonathan Taylor might be the best running back in football. Matt Listen, Matt Ryan might be cooked. He did this self sack last week where like there was pressure around him. Instead of getting touched, he just crumbled. Everything in me says bet the Chiefs.
So I'm not gonna do it. I'm not gonna do it. I'm just not gonna do it.
I feel exactly how I felt about the Bill's game. Now about this Chiefs topic.
I'd love it. Listen, I'll be rooting for you.
I like it.
No one's gonna be betting the Colts. The problem is the be careful category is if you see it and you're like, is anyone going to bet Indy? No?
Do I think the Chiefs are gonna win?
Yes? Does a backdoor cover situation scare me? There are a lot of things the Chiefs Willie Gay. They're inside linebackers suspended the next four games. Could that hurt their run defense? It could just it looks so obvious we're staying away. But with that said, well, I don't want to lay the six and a half with filling. I want to lay the five and a half with KC. That does feel like a very tasty teaser situation. So we might talk about that in exotics. All right, last one?
All right, Dallas plus a point and a half at the Giants plus a point.
Sorry nine point a half, no.
No problem. Uh, the Giants are only minus one. The reason this is a be careful to me is because I have no Maybe I should have put this in a different category. I have no feel for this game. I think the Giants are gonna win, but I have no feel. I don't even want to talk about this game. I have no feel for it. I was so wrong in.
The Cowboys last week.
I think the Giants are gonna win, but I also feel like Michael Parsons might be able to force like four fumbles of Daniel Jones. I have no feel for it. I'm just you know what. I should have put it in the state away category. But let's move on to perfectly priced quickly, because I said we're gonna go fast, and once again we're late.
Price.
Bill's minus six at Miami. Yeah, still refusing to go in on the bills. Are you saying that you believe in Miami or well?
No, I just think that it's perfectly priced. I think that if Miami's a playoff team, which Vegas says they are, they're at home. Buffalo is on. But you know, keep in mind Buffalo Game one. Everyone's fully rested. Right, they play on a Thursday. Week two, they go from Thursday to Monday, damn near a bye week.
So they go from all off.
Season of rest, then a week and a half. Now they're on a short week, right, and it's going to be hot. You know those new England Buffalo and the Jets. Going down to Miami has caused problems in the past. And if Miami is supposed to be a playoff team, then at home they shouldn't be more than six and a half point underdogs against anybody. So I do think, and I do think that with Buffalo suffered some injuries to the secondary, Miami might be able to take advantage
of it. I think the Bills win by a touchdown. I think it's perfect price. I expect the Bills to win. The line's just right, so we're staying away next.
All right, Green Bay plus a point at Tampa Bay.
Yeah, I think that's also perfectly priced. No, Mike Evans, Tampa's offense has struggled, So what they're saying is they think, right now Green Bay is slightly better than Tampa, but the game's in Tampa, so this game is essentially a pick them. I totally agree with that, and I think this is gonna be the game of the week. I'm very excited to see it. But it's a coin flip game. It's perfectly priced.
Next all right, Falcons plus a plaint in a half at the Seahawks.
Yeah, I mean, this is maybe the two worst teams in football. What they're saying is that they think Seattle is slightly worse than Atlanta, but Atlanta's got to go. I wanted to bet Atlanta because I think Seattle's gonna struggle to win. I think their Super Bowl was that Denver game and they looked awful and weak two awful.
Yeah.
All year, the all off season, it was about beating Russ. They wanted to beat Russ. My problem is it is hard to find a longer trip for any one schedule than to Seattle. So that flight the East coast to West coast, I don't love it. I don't love that we're getting less than a field Goalden lumen Field. I also don't let love the idea of betting Seattle and under any circumstances laying points. It's price just right, that's it.
Last right, Rams minus three and a half at the Cardinals.
Yeah, again. I think this is mcveigh's owned Kingsbury. But the Cardinals, I'm sorry. The Rams have not looked overwhelming. They almost they haven't covered yet this year. The three and a half is just right at Rams minus three, I would bet it. At Cardinals plus four, i'd probably bet them. I think the I probably wouldn't bet either. But those are the sides I have. I think three and a half's perfectly priced. I expect the Rams win this game by around by three or four points. It's
perfectly priced. All right, We've got to give you our lock, got to give you some exotics, our survivor pick, and Demont's gotten offer for us. That's all. Next, we wrap the show What's Right? All right? Welcome back in final segment, What's Right, Nick Right? Episode seventy three, Week three gambling Show. Our five picks this week are Baltimore minus two and a half. We're staying on Baltimore for the third straight week.
This time they're in New England Minnesota minus six at home against Detroit, Houston plus two and a half in Chicago Jacksonville plus seven playing the Chargers in LA and San Francisco minus one and a half. Last year, last week, we got screwed on our lock the Baltimore bit. I almost Demons wanted to lock up Baltimore again. Happy for the third straight week we go with Baltimore. But we're not gonna do that. Instead, we're gonna take this opportunity
to fade Nathaniel Hackett. Kyle Shanahan versus Nathaniel Hackett. It is truly one of the best coaches, smartest coaches in football against one of the most overmatched dufuses I've ever seen coach in an NFL game.
I'm laying less than a field goal.
San Francisco minus a point and a half is the right move. They have now added to the graphic. More look at this, more versions of me when I was slightly overweight and shaved head, and you are now holding money in a football and all these things there it is San Francisco minus a point and a half. And then yeah, okay, now we're going to teach Demans about teasers. Okay, so there are six point, seven point and eight point teasers. So a teaser means you have to add you know
what a parlay is. Parlay is when you just take a bunch of bets, put them together teaser is similar, but you get to move the line six, seven, or ten points and you pay a bigger big depending on how many points. So the rules of teasers are that
you don't want to tease across zero. So if you have a team that's favored by three, you wouldn't then tease them to plus three because you're not getting true value on it, because the game's not going to end tied typically, So what you want when you're teasing is
to take it across key numbers. Right, So like a seven and a half point favorite, you might want to tease down to a point and a half because seven is a key number, six is an important number, three is an important number, and then that's seven and a half point favor we'll just have to win by at least a point and a half, right. Or you can
also go in the other direction. You know, you can tease an underdog, so this if there are a lot of two and a half point underdogs, those are great teaser legs because you are getting it through the three, through the seven, through the six obviously, and through the eight. So you take a six a two and a half point dog and make them an eight and a half point dog. With that said, I'm gonna slightly break one of those rules I just told you about. Here we go.
We have Philly minus six and a half. We are teasing it down to Philly minus half point, Philly just to win, okay, Philly just to win. And we are teasing it with the Chiefs from minus five and a half to plus a half point. Again, we're giving up one point of value there, because plus half points basically the same thing as minus half point. It's gonna end on and tie. A two team six point teaser, I kind of want to include Houston. In fact, we are
including Houston. We're getting aggressive. We're going with a three team teaser, the Chiefs from five and a half down to plus a half point, Philly from six and a half to minus half point, and Houston from plus two and a half to plus eight and a half.
So a three team teaser, just so you know how the math works on it. A three team six point teaser will pay out plus one forty Okay, so one hundred bucks to win one hundred and forty bucks, so on and so forth. That's our first teaser of the year. We will keep track of those as well.
I'll look at Look at the graphic. Wow, look at the graphic.
US Exotic.
I like it.
Exotics Exotics.
I like it all right.
Now, do you have an offer you'd like to make me?
I do have an offer I'd like to make you, all right. So this week's offer the Giants to remain as the last undefeated team at fifty to one, and we've also got the Dolphins to remain as the last undefeated team at twenty six to one. Either take those two bets and one of these delicious cupcakes that I have under my seat.
You actually have cupcakes with you? Why do you have cupcakes with you?
Bought them specifically to match the chair?
Oh? Let me see these?
Yeah? These are some Yeah.
So you're saying if I take one of these offers, I get the cupcakes too. No, no, I think that's what you're supposed to be saying.
But that's fine, no problem. Here's the thing.
I don't like the Dolphins at twenty six to one. The Giants at fifty to one is interesting. So let's look at this. I believe the Giants have a very good chance at being four and oh okay, so who are the other undefeated teams? Kansas City. Kansas City is in Tampa next week, and then against Buffalo two weeks later, and against San Francisco after that. He'll lose one of those games, all right, So Kansas City max is out at six and zero. Miami and Buffalo play each other
this week. I think Miami's gonna win. I'm sorry, Buffalo is gonna win. So Miami's off the board. Who are other undefeated teams? We talked about the Giants Philadelphia. Let's see what they've got. Philadelphia is at their home for Jacksonville. They're at Arizona, their home for Dallas. Maybe Dax back by then Philadelphia, could you know? I think they max out and then they're home for Pittsburgh. Philadelphia doesn't really have a really tough game for a while.
They're interesting. Who are other undefeated teams?
Tampa? Tampa obviously could lose this week, right, and then they play the Chiefs. So Tampa and the Chiefs, one of them is gonna knock each other out. So what do the Giants max out at? I think they're getting to four and oh who at Green Bay Sunday, October ninth,
then home for Baltimore. All right, that's no good, But fifty to one when I think they're getting to four and zero, and I could then like hedge out of it by if there's only other one undefeated team left, betting on that team each week at fifty to one, the Giants to be the last remaining undefeated team. I think that's good value. That's the first time you've given me one of these. That's good value.
I like it.
If we were to play out this scenario fifty times, would at least one of those times the Giants be the last remaining undefeated team. I say yes, I like that bet. For the first time, I take that offer. You understand what this means, because I've never taken one of these. You are making the offer, so I'll make it easy on you this time. I'll just bet fifty dollars. If the Giants are not the last remaining undefeated team,
I owe you fifty dollars. But since you made the offer, you're the house on this, so you if they are the last remaining undefeated.
Team, you owe me books no hundred and fifty bucks.
No no, no, no, no no no. It is fifty to one, and I bet if I bet one dollar, you'd owe me fifty oh, twenty five hundred, so.
You bucks to get twenty five hundred day.
Now you're trying to but you're you're like, oh, maybe I should make this bet too late. You made the offer. I've accepted the offer. It is the first one. If the Giants lose before you know, if they're not the last remaining undefeated team, I could have done more, But to fifty to twenty five hundred feels good. You got me for ten thousands FID weeks ago. By the way, speaking of that as of recording, let me check real quick. Oh,
we're getting close. Four hundred and ninety nine thousand, six hundred and twenty one.
Yeah, I did see that the churn number was going on.
Yeah, we're getting close. But I take it.
So the Giants, last remaining undefeated team, you own me twenty five hundred buck. If they're not, I owe you fifty dollars.
The cupcakes cancels out the fifty.
The fifty Yeah, so I don't have to pay you even the fifty dollars. What I'm saying, I think you're very confused. I ain't our guy. Nick Winer's here in New York tried to add an element to the show, and that being you offering the cupcakes.
Wait, so I owe you fifty dollars if it doesn't hit.
Right, No, I owe you fifty dollars if it doesn't.
Hit, and if it does hit, you owe me.
Twenty five hundred dollars.
Oh, what the hell?
You've made the offer. You should have talked to them about it. You made the offer, Buddy, I accepted the offer. It's the first one that I actually think was good value. That's today's show.