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Welcome in episode one fourteen, our final regular season gambling show of the year, and before we do.
Yeah we did last week and our season records.
Now is of course the time to remind everyone how dominant we all were as a collective. If you guys took my preseason gambling advice. Now, I've done this on a few shows, but it's making me feel better about life, so I'm doing it again. We gave you Jacksonville over six and a half, cash it, Kent City over ten and a half, cash it, San Francisco over nine and a half, cash it Tampa under eleven and a half. We called that our bet of the year, cash it.
So that's four winners. New England, we gave you under eight and a half, Gonna come down to the wire. They're sitting at eight wins. We'll see Indy, we gave you over nine and a half, no good. Giants, we gave you over seven and a half, no good. And then Baltimore over over ten and a half. Gonna come down to the wire. Not looking great though, because they're underdogs. So we have four wins locked in, two losses locked in, and two that are gonna come down to Week seventeen.
We also gave you Seattle, the Jets, Atlanta and New England parlay.
Do all missed the playoffs might at even money, Gonna come down to the wire.
Seattle and New England so love.
We gave you Cleveland to miss the playoffs minus won seventy locked in for a month, Denver to missed the playoffs at plus money locked in forever. New England missed the playoffs at minus two hundred, Gonna come down to the wire. And then our long shot parlay of division winners did not come through thanks to the Colts.
And then we have just sitting out there like.
My fourth child, my fifty to one one dime ticket on a Chiefs Niners super Bowl exacta. That's college tuition for more than a year for your wonderful sister, that tearing back from colleges right now. Or that's a hell of a hell of a weekend for your pops in Vegas. See if we can flip that from one year college tuition to four years college tuition.
We'll see.
But that ticket is sitting there in a lock box in my heart and on a betting app not to be named. So that was, you know, preseason, just crushing the world week two week demons has been you know, it's been a bit of a struggle. So last week, we gave you Miami plus two and a half is the right move. They lost by two. That's a winner.
Got a little lucky.
We're gonna admit they were down nine. We gave you Arizona plus three and a half. All of a sudden didn't kick off. They're like, we're starting David blow and there were six point dogs, but it covered anyway. I told you Desmond Ritter should not be trusted to be favored. But that's where the good fortune kind of ended. We told you which San Francisco minus ten that they'd only need fourteen points to cover that.
Yeah, I think.
They scored somewhere in the thirties and they didn't.
Cover thirty seven forty or something like that.
It wasn't great. You know, it wasn't great. Thirty seven thirty four.
Maybe it was the playoffs four team, Oh that we gave. We gave you Minnesota plus three and a half. They lost by roughly fifty Would Minnesota plus thirty five have covered that game?
Let me check? I was that game forty one to three?
Was it?
Whatever it was, it wasn't good. And then of course, as we discussed on yesterday's show, Uh, we also had Cincinnati Buffalo and we we covered that quite a bit on Thursday's pod, everything surrounding Tom Hamlin. But that's obviously we're just that game is no action on all fronts. So that was a two and two week. Oh they lost forty one seventeen, so plus thirty five would have covered for the Vikings, but plus three and a.
Half did not.
So that puts our record for the season at a pitifull thirty nine, forty five and two are right move at six and eleve we typically only pick five games a week. We are six games under five hundred, demons, all now hand the rings to you for a moment.
Yes, so I've got a little proposition for you. Well, the good news is, well, the good news and the bad news. Sorry, you cannot finish the regular season above five hundred, even with a five and oh week.
Yeah that's the math that I was just realizing. Six games under five and oh can't get there.
Uh huh.
But the good news is you are sixteen to nine in divisional games.
Really sixty you know, some small say those are the hardest games to pick, the divisional contest, And I'm.
Sixty four ats and divisional games.
Okay, go ahead, all right, So luckily, luckily, we have sixteen divisional games this week, all divisional games.
The final weekend.
Yep. Yeah, if you keep up that pace, you could end up over five hundred.
Uh huh.
Here is my final offer of the regular season.
Oh, an early show offer. Yeah, we usually save this for the very end.
You bet every game for a chance to finish over five hundred.
Do you accept this offer? All right?
This listen, the theme of this show has been responsible gambling. You have learned some hard lessons about responsible gambling. We have talked to the audience about how every week you've got to put the games into different buckets. Your be carefuls, your stay aways, you're perfectly priced, and then your actual bets.
There is no week that exemplifies the necessity of sticking to a responsible gambling strategy like Week eighteen, when you have backups in the game, when you have teams pulling their starters without saying when you have one team that's playing hard but then sees that the only reason they were playing hard was let me give you an example. Eagles are playing the Giants and the Cowboys are playing Washington. The Cowboys got to play hard. They could be the
one seed, they could win the division. But then they see at halftime of these simultaneous games the Eagles are up twenty. They're like, oh, well they're not going to lose. We're now locked into the five. We can pull our starters. It is the hardest week to handicap. It would be the most ridiculous week to bet all of the games on the sling. However, I have a streak.
On the line.
Since I've been on television, I have never finished a year below five hundred. Now again, the smart thing would be stick with my five games, go three and two, finish a few games below five hundred, take my medicine.
But I am not to take my medicine type. So here's what I'm going to do.
I don't feel comfortable really discussing or gambling on the games involving the Bills and the Bengals. I think it's kind of poor form, especially with as we're recording this still so much unknown about DeMar and then from the Bengals perspective about what their future schedule is going to be. So let's just take them out of the running. Bengals Ravens and Bengals Patriots.
Take that out.
That leaves us with fourteen games. If you revise the offer to fourteen games, I will accept it.
Will you revise the.
Offer fourteen all the games except for the Bills in the Bengals game.
Can that be the offer?
Of course?
Okay, then I accept it.
For the record, if my math is corrected, six games under five hundred, I would need to go ten and four to be five hundred, and a crackling hot eleven and three to finish above five hundred.
We can do it.
So these are all knicks picks. There are no stayaways, there are no be carefuls, there are no perfectly priced We're doing fourteen picks today. We're doing them all. I do have a few that I like more than others, and I will let the audience know what those few are, okay, or we will go somewhat in chronological order, but not exactly. We'll start with Saturday's games. Kansas City at Vegas. Kansas City minus nine and a half, all right at Vegas
for the second straight year. Kansas City is the first game of Week eighteen.
Right.
Kansas City, also, if you guys have noticed, has not been great at covering spreads, particularly big spreads. Vegas, on the other hand, looked awesome last week.
Ah, I have been.
Pretty smart on not including Kansas City as a big favorite throughout these picks.
With that set, I think the Raiders.
Another double digit blown lead last week, they can see the end of.
Their season on the horizon.
Last week, they went into that game technically still alive for the playoffs. As unlikely as it seemed and as odd as it was that they were starting stile, I think this is a game the Raiders play to stay healthy.
Get into the offseason.
There's nothing a player hates more than getting dinged in the final game of the year, to where instead of being able to go to a warm location for their vacation, they have to stay at the facility in rehab.
The Chiefs, on the other.
Hand, need to put an impressive performance together before they have appears right now to be the bye and time off.
The Chiefs are going to lay it on the Raiders.
Patrick Mahomes I don't think he's gonna get there, but he's four hundred and twenty yards away from the all time single season passing record. Travis Kelcey has not scored a touchdown in five weeks, but Davante had two touchdown to catch his last week, so Davante is now up by two, so Travis Kelcey can try to at least tie Devonte Adams. He has three touchdown receptions.
Which I think he did last Searonne.
He's done this year. He was either against the charge of the Raiders regardless. I think the Chiefs put it on the Raiders offensively and defensively. I think Stidham goes back to the player he was for the first five years of his career, not the player he was in that miraculous game against the Niners. All right, so Chiefs laying nine and a half. Now the Saturday night name.
Jacksonville's a six point favorite at Tennessee.
So when I was going through this de Monsey, everything screamed, Oh, Tennessee. There's a lot of reasons to go with Tennessee. You have a few of them. Go ahead, I'll I'll let you tell me some of the reasons to pick Tennessee.
Well, this is a classic Mike Rabill cover. Yeah.
Uh, Tennessee's obviously all right, Yeah, Tennessee's coming off of a bunch of rests.
Yeah, and he covers seventy percent of his games as an underdog.
Okay, that's all true. And Tennessee's been awful for more
than a month. Right, they're starting Josh Dobbs Jacksonville. For both teams, it's to win in your in scenario, I understand that Jacksonville actually technically could lose, and if Pittsburgh, New England and Miami all lose, Jacksonville gets the wild card and there's two AFC South playoff teams, So Jacksonville has a slim change of making the playoffs even with a loss, but the winner gets the four and it's almost more likely and Tennessee loses, they're done.
No matter what, all of.
My smart gambling tendency say, take Tennessee verybele at least is going to keep it close.
And I was ready to put in Tennessee.
And then I thought of that, and I said, if one thing this show has gotten right this year, it's our faith in the Prince that was promised.
And the only reason that our record.
Isn't better is because you assholes made me stop betting on it right when they were about to go on their winning streak. You guys put a ban on me, and because of that, I'm one in six betting on the Jags.
Well, the ban has been lifted. I have not taken full advantage of it the way I should have. And the Jags minus.
Six, the Jags which brought your worst gambling moment of the year, the overtime game against Dallas by winning the Jags, which hurt my feelings so many times this year.
No, I'm simply saying.
We have had a tortured history with the Jags this year when we shouldn't have. I should have simply ignored you guys when you guys were telling me they're no good. He's not a prince, all these things. Jags minus six.
We're not Chiefs and Jags so far? What could go roll?
What could go they?
I've been right about the Chiefs all year. I've been right about the Jags all year, and my most important weekend of the year, I'm not abandoning them. Now to Sunday, Atlanta minus four against Tampa Bay. So I understand last week I said, how can did you ever lay three points with Desmond Ridder?
Right?
And I took three and a half with the terrible Cardinals and ended up being David Blough purely on the belief of how can you lay points with Desmond Ritter?
But this is where Week eighteen is tricky.
Okay, that's a really nasty line.
Well, Tampa is claiming they are going to play their starters.
I don't believe them.
I think Brady's gonna play a series or two and then be pulled for Trask or Gabbert, whomever their backup quarterback's going to be.
I think Evans will be pulled.
I think all of their key players are coming out of this game, and usually even when you pull your key guys, you leave in your front line offensive lineman. But some of their offensive linemen are dealing with injuries. I think those guys will be pulled. So I believe Atlanta they're running attack and the fact that Tampa is locked into the four seed is going to roll over in this game. So I will lay the four points with the Atlanta Falcons.
That might have been the craziest like thought process that you'd explain to why. I mean, you're just banking on that happening, Like.
Yeah, I am banking on that happening. That is correct, and I understand that I'm betting that right now.
It does.
It's a lot of favorites, it would appear. I get that.
I don't love that it's this many favorites to start with. We'll get to some underdogs later. However, it should be go ahead.
You are three to zero betting against Tom Brady this year.
Well, they listen, Tampa's been the worst covering team in the league because Vegas has overvalued them throughout the season. But Atlanta, I believe he's gonna play hard and play all their guys. Tampa is claiming they're going to play their guys, I don't believe them.
Atlanta minus four.
Next another favorite, Minnesota minus seven and a half at Chicago. So the logic on this you saw Justin Field's not playing. Justin Field's not.
Playing in this game, which kind of sucks for him.
Because he is what record was yep, about sixty yards away from breaking Lamar Jackson's single season quarterback rushing record.
He can't do it, though. He can't do it because he's not playing.
Wait, who'd you say he's not playing Justin Fields?
What? Ad Ice? Maybe?
Oh Justin Field? I thought you said Justin Jefferson. No, Justin Field is not playing. He's not playing, so he can't break Lamar Jackson's single season rushing record. Minnesota is coming off a terrible performance. They could get the two seed, but they won't. They are essentially locked into the three. Now is there a piece of me that otherwise would be concerned about Minnesota?
Remember what I said earlier?
I said you've got to be careful in Week eighteen that the a team, you lay a lot of points with them, and then at halftime they're like, wait, we're playing for nothing. If the Niners win against the Rams or against the Cardinals, pardon me, which they will. Minnesota's playing for nothing. They're the three seeds. However, the Vikings
game is at one o'clock. The Niners game is at four thirty, so the Vikings will literally not know anything about the Niners result until that game until they're done, so they will play their entire game believing we're alive for the two we have to win and we have to have San Francisco lose. San Francisco will kick off when their game is over, so that incentivizes the Vikings to play hard. The fact that they're coming off their worst game of the season.
Couldn't the players think about it just like you think about it? Though?
What do you mean?
Like Minnesota knows like we could win, but like, what are the chances of San Francisco losing Arizona?
Well, yes, but here's that. You're right.
The players can think about it like that, but the coaches won't. And the coaches, like I feel like football players win, they're in the game, have to play hard because of the dangers around.
Right, what happens if the coaches pull players.
The coaches aren't gonna pull their guys, especially because they can't get the bye so they need to have some type of good feeling momentum going into their playoff game, which is coming up in a week after this game against the Giants.
Now, let's go to Chicago.
Chicago alive for the number one pick if they lose, and you might say, well, Houston's not gonna win. We're gonna talk about that game in a moment. Houston's playing Indy. They of course could win because anyone could beat Indy, so like that, it's on the board. Conversely, if Chicago were to win, they go from but potentially they could lose the number two pick because they're three and thirteen. Arizona and Denver are both four and twelve, so Chicago wants to lose.
I would love this game so much more at seven.
And I will tell you right now to the betting public, if you're when we're doing this is seven and a half. This is a game I would wait until Sunday morning. If the line moves against you and goes to eight, no worries. But if it moves for you and goes to seven, that is a huge benefit. But I think Minnesota plays a good game. I think Minnesota plays motivated. I think Chicago actively wants to lose and is not starting justin fields for all those reasons, all lay seven
and a half with Minnesota and now another favorite. We're getting to the underdog shortly.
I promise.
Indy laying two and a half against Houston. So this right here is one of the oddest.
Game of the week.
And here's why Indy is triple incentivized to lose. Okay, number one is there, four, eleven, and one. With a win, they could fall out of the top five of the draft and end up drafting six. With a loss, theoretically they could be drafting as high as three. Probably they'd be drafting four or five. Okay, But more importantly, with a loss, Houston, their divisional rival, would lose the number one pick. Assuming Chicago loses, Houston would with a win,
would go to the number two pick. So if you're Indy, okay, you really want to throw this game. You prevent Bryce Young from growing up in your division. You screw Houston, you help your draft pick. So I'm making all the case and Houston plays hard, they're just no good and I'm making all the case for taking Houston plus the points. So why does it say on the screen Indie minus
two and a half. Let me tell you, because if we know anything about Jeff's Saturday that the one time he's likely to win is when they want to lose. And I also believe Houston will be telling Lovey Smith that winning this game is not an option. Figure out a way to lose this. This is such a fascinating spot where one day there is going to be an NFL team that just says league integrity be damned.
And in a spot like this, let's how the quarterback though picks.
Yeah, it takes the opening kickoff, runs out in the back of the end zone, self safeties, just makes it blatant. We are get as soon as they're trailing in the game, takes knees.
The rest of the way just says screw it. Well, the league would kill them, but it's the one day it'll happen.
I don't think that's this week, but I do think Indy screws up and the Jeff Saturday era ends with a flourish of a win that puts the number one pick in their divisional rivals hands and knocks them out of the top five of the draft. Indie minus two and a half next Miami catching one against.
The Jets are first dog.
So this is in a normal week when I wasn't doing everything I possibly could do to get above five hundred, this would be an obvious stay away. Miami's lost five in a row and we don't know who their quarterback is, right, I think Teddy Bridgewater is gonna play. Teddy Bridgewater's injury. Yes it's on his throwing hand, but it is a
dislocated pinky. Miami has to win, and if they win, I think they'll make the playoffs because I don't think the Patriots are beating the Bills, so Miami, this would prevent an all time collapse from them eight and three to out of the playoffs.
The Jets, on the other.
Hand, have been bad for two and a half months, okay, since beating the Dolphins forty to seventeen. Listen, I'm going to go through their whole schedule. Started started the year losing the Ravens. So what then got very lucky against the Browns. Remember that was the game Nick Chubb didn't go down or Kareem Hunt didn't go down, whatever it was. They were down thirteen in the final two minutes and won the game. They beat the Browns thirty one to thirty.
They then got crushed by the Bengals, who were at the time going two. They then beat the Steelers annihilated the Dolphins in the first game the Dolphins had without Tua. That was the game where Teddy started, got hurt on the first play and they had to go to the guy who might be starting this week, the third string quarterback, Skyler's thank you, I forgot his name, Skyler Thompson. The
next week they beat the Packers. The next week they beat the Broncos back when people thought that meant something. Since then, the Patriots beat him. Then they beat the Bills in one of the best wins anybody's had all year since that Bill's win, the Patriot to beat him again in a game that was three to three until the final punt, remember, and then the punt return. They
beat the Bears, who haven't won in three months. They then lost to the Bills, lost to the Lions, lost to the print that was promised, got crushed by the Seahawks, oh I left out, lost to the Vikings as well. They have lost five in a row. They have scored in their last four games twelve, seventeen, three, and six. This is a dead team walking that is now officially eliminated from the playoffs. Last week, they were still alive and you know what they did, scored six points against
a terrible Seattle defense. Miami doesn't need great quarterback play to win this game. Miami's playoff hopes are alive.
So what about the name Mike Glennon.
I think the Dolphins might have signed him this week, and that might be who you're putting your forte.
Zawyer's the thing.
Mike Glennon was signed to be a backup, and now Miami has had a bunch of quarterbacks injured. I understand that. I said they don't need great quarterback play. Miami plus one.
Is the pick.
Lastly, for this segment, Carolina getting three and a half at New Orleans. All right, you have some information here that I didn't know about about my history in New Orleans.
Go ahead, you bet against No more than any team other others would.
Be short for New Orleans.
But go ahead, I bet against New Orleans. Demands not having a sharp at.
Shit time to fade yourself.
So here's the deal. It's like no New Orleans. Yeah in oh for New Orleans. That's in all caps that's they're trying to signal to you. It's shorthand for the team, just so you know. When it says car I'm not actually betting on a car it's short for Carolina.
So here's the deal.
New Orleans hot right now, they've won four in a row. Carolina just got devastated last week, a chance to win the division up fourteen and fell apart. So why would I be picking Carolina. I think Carolina likes Steve Wilkes the players, and I think they want him to be the head coach next year. I don't know that he will be, but I think it's what the players want. Players almost always want the coach to stay in place because their jobs are safe. When a new coach comes in,
there is massive roster churn. So it has to be a really disastrous coach for the players to want the coach fire because their jobs are in jeopardy. I think they like Wilkes. I'm also getting three and a half points. I also think they can run the ball on most teams Tampa, they weren't great running the ball against them, Hanging run the ball there. Darnald kind of playing for his NFL future a bit. He looked like he was going to be relegated to career backup. He's had a
decent little run here in Carolina. We'll see what Carolina lands in the quarterback musical chairs next year. A lot of motivated Carolina Panthers, like their coach, want to end the year on a high note.
Have been better than New Orleans this year.
New Orleans not quite as good as the little winning streak suggests. Let me remind you, guys, for the for the Saints, pardon me what the winning streak has actually been, because four in a row sounds good.
I'm sorry, three in a row sounds good. This would be four in a row.
But those wins are against the Falcons who stink, the Browns who stink, and then a great win last week against the Eagles that to me, was there.
The end of their season. We beat the Eagles. We showed we're better than you know what I mean.
Our records suggests if we hadn't blown that game against the Bucks a few weeks ago, we'd be right there. But the Saints offense, it's last five weeks zero sixteen twenty one, seventeen twenty. I don't want to lay three and a half points with a team that can't break twenty one points. Carolina is gonna be able to run the ball. Caroline's gonna play hard.
For their coach. Carolina plus three and a half.
So for our first half of picks, Kansas City minus nine and a half, Jacksonville minus six, Atlanta minus four, Minnesota minus seven and a half, Indie minus two and a half, Miami plus one, Carolina plus three and a half. A bunch more underdogs, and are the rest of the slate. Next What's Right? Episode one, fourteen hour Week eighteen gambling Show.
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All Right, Welcome, back in episode one fourteen, our Week eighteen gambling show. We're picking fourteen of the sixteen games. We're leaving the Buffalo game in the Cincinnati game out. We need to go ten and four to finish the year at five hundred, eleven and three finish the year above five hundred. In our first segment, we picked five
favorites and two dogs. In this segment, we're gonna it's a little more even, but we're still going with more favorites than we typically would because of some of the dynamics of this week that are at play with who's motivated and who's not. We will start with Pittsburgh laying two and a half against Cleveland. This is very simple. This is a Mike Tomlin pick. This is a desperate Pittsburgh team. Pick a Pittsburgh team that is not only a live mathematically for the playoffs, but a Pittsburgh team
that they're like. Okay, So we need Miami to lose to the Jets, they've lost five in a row, and we need New England to lose to the Bills, and the Bills have dominated New England over the last two years. If we win this game, we're in Conversely, the Browns, even though they won this past week. It's not the time for it right now. But the offseason will be.
Deshaun Watson conversation.
That is going to be a tricky one because when we say he's been underwhelming, that does not really do it justice Deshaun Watson. This is what he has done thus far. His first game one hundred and thirty yards, one pick, no touchdowns. His second game back two hundred and seventy yards, one pick, one touchdown in a loss against Baltimore, one hundred and sixty yards, against New Orleans one hundred and thirty five yards, and against Washington one
hundred and sixty nine yards. He has not been good flatly. Pittsburgh has to have the game. I'm laying less than a field goal. I will admit there is part of me that feels like, is this thing gonna be sixteen to fourteen and I lose on the hook. Maybe, but laying three and a half. I wouldn't feel great about laying two and a half. I'm fine with Pittsburgh minus two and a half in a game they have to
have next Denver at the Chargers. Denver is the two and a half point favorite and we are picking Denver.
Pretty ironic why I been given the way you've talked about Russ and the bronc this entire season.
Okay, so a few things here. Denver is not one of those teams that last game of the year were eliminated and managements like go ahead and lose, improve our draft pick.
It's not their draft pick, Seattle's draft pick. First of all.
Second of all, this is another one of those games where the actual timing of the games really matter. So if Baltimore loses to Cincinnati, the Chargers are locked into the five seeds. Baltimore Cincinnati kicks off at one PM.
This game kicks off at four point thirty. So if you believe like I do, that Cincinnati is going to beat a Baltimore team that is almost surely going to be starting Tyler Huntley, then what we are going to have is a situation where the Chargers, who have been ravaged by injury this year, cannot im improve their seed and cannot fall backwards in the seeding. They will be locked into the five spot. That's why they're the underdogs. Denver, on the other hand, showed some fight last week for
Jerry Rosberg. The Chargers I don't think I think we're gonna see Chase Daniel. I don't think we're see keenan Allen. I don't think we're seeing Mike Williams. I don't think we're seeing Nicki Bosa. I don't think we're gonna see Derwin James. I think the Chargers are gonna give themselves a mini bye week assuming Baltimore loses. Now, if Baltimore wins, it gets a little more complicated on what the different scenarios are. But still assuming Baltimore loses, which I believe
they will, Chargers are locked into the five. They will be playing for nothing. They will be playing backups. Denver minus two and a half is our pick? Does that make sense there? If Denver, if this game was at the same time as Cincinnati Baltimore, I'd feel differently. But this game being three and a half hours later means they can pull everyone or not even start guys. If that, if Baltimore Cincinnati goes the way I think it will.
Next Giants getting fourteen at Philly it is flatly too many points, even with the Giants playing backups when we don't know if Jalen Hurts is going to play Philadelphia needs this game. Obviously, they win the game. They're the one seed. If not, they could fall all the way to the three or to the five line. And they almost assuredly would fall at least to the two line, because I believe San Francisco more on them in a minute's gonna beat Arizona. But the Giants, here's the thing
about the Giants playing backups. Their backups aren't much worse than their starters. The Giants don't have a ton of talent. The Giants are staying in games and beating teams for coaching and hard play, which you will get from the backups. Is Tyrod Taylor that much worse than Daniel Jones?
I don't know.
And so if the Giant starters were playing because the Giants are locked into their seed, would they be getting fourteen points? No, certainly not when Gardner Minshew might be the quarterback in this game, and if it is Jalen Hurts, I think it will be a very conservative Jalen Hurts game plan, trying to make sure he doesn't get hit. So the Giants getting fourteen points, it's flatly too many points.
Seems like you have a take on this demanse.
I mean, I think that line is kind of telling you that Jayson Jalen Hurts is going to be playing.
They getting fourteen.
I think the line is telling us that the Giants are resting everybody. But I just don't think that matters that much for that team. So Giants plus fourteen is our pick.
There's a respect on Daniel Jones's name, man.
I won't do that. I won't do that steady.
Improvement every year, steady improvement.
Yeah, so he's approved from unplayable to slightly below mediocre.
I won't put a lot of respect on his name.
The Giants what The Giants are also plus six on the money line.
Yeah, I don't think they're gonna win because Philly needs the game, So I don't think they're gonna win. A team that I know is not gonna win is the Cliff Kingsbury David Blough coach, quarterback Combo. This is a team that I don't think likes their coach, and I do think he might be on the way out. They are playing San Francisco. San Francisco is laying fourteen points.
I will lay the fourteen points. Remember I said last week Jared Stidham that when the Niners were laying ten, I said the night that they only need to score fourteen to cover it against Jared.
Stidham, and they went to the overtime.
To cover fourteen against David Blough. I think they need seventeen?
How much?
So okay, I was gonna ask you, how much better are the Raiders than the Cardinals?
In your opinion?
Much better?
DeAndre Hopkins isn't playing the third string quarterback is playing for Arizona now. The only little bit of fear I have is JJ Watts's final game ever. But like in that, but there is not enough around him. San Francisco highly motivated because San Francisco. Let me make sure I'm correct on this. Hold on, there is one note. I want to make sure I've got this right about the timing of these games. Yes, okay, that's what I wanted to make sure Philadelphia and the Giants are playing at the
same time as San Francisco and Arizona. So will I admit there is potentially a little bit of fear that Philadelphia, that Philadelphia.
Wins and San Francisco loses motivation.
Here's why there is not because I believe earlier in the day, the Vikings will have beaten the Bears. And so even if Philadelphia is up by thirty and San Francisco knows, oh, we can't get the one seed, they will know assuming the Vikings have won. But if we lose, we fall to the three seed, and then we'd be going two Minnesota in round two, and we don't want that.
We'd rather that game be outdoors in our building. So as long as the Vikings win the early game, no matter what's happening in the Philadelphia game, San Francisco is motivated. That defense got embarrassed by Jared Stidham last week, right, So I think Defen's gonna be on fire. I think San Francisco will hold Arizona to single digits. I'll lay the fourteen points next. Dallas minus seven and a half versus Washington. Washington is starting Sam Howell. He is a
fifth round rookie. Sam Howell showed you so much after you drafted him that he was your third string quarterback behind Carson Wentzon, Taylor Heineke. Washington is falling apart at the end of the year. Dallas's defense and defense alone is enough to cover this seven and a half Dallas also because again, this is another one of those games where at least in the beginning of the game Dallas is going to be highly motivated because the division is available for him.
Now.
Is there a little concern that Philly will be annihilating the Giants and Dallas will pull people. Yes, that's why Week eighteen is tough. But as long as the Giants, if I'm right about the Giants being able to keep it within two scores, Dallas is not going to be able to just say, Okay, this game is meaningless. We're locked into the five seed. Dallas will keep playing. If
they keep playing, they will. I don't know how Washington and Sam Howe is going to move the ball on this defense, and Dallas also is motivated to get up huge early so they can get guys out of the game. Dallas minus seven and a half next, This is one of the only games where I'm the team that has nothing to play for. I am picking over the team that has everything to play for, the Rams getting six and a half at Seattle, I'm taking the Rams. So Seattle,
if they win, they're alive for the postseason. I'm taking the Rams because this Sean McVay Baker mayfield offense against bad defenses can move the football. Furthermore, Sean McVay at a very interesting press conference on Wednesday when we saw about how this was a professional failure and embarrassment of a season. I don't think they are ready to just roll over. I think they want to end the season
on a strong note. They also don't have their draft pick it goes to Detroit, so they are not incentivized at all to lose the game. I'm not saying they're gonna win the game, but I don't think they're gonna get blown out.
I think Baker is highly.
Incentivized to try to put more good football on tape.
I'm getting six and a half. I'm gonna jump on the Rams.
If you're thinking about actually betting, this game is another one of those games where the line is in a place where if it moves against you, it doesn't kill you if it moves down to six. If you think about betting the Rams, I would wait to see if it moves up to seven, which is obviously a huge number. I don't think the Rams win outright, but I do think they keep it close. The Rams plus six and a half, and lastly, my favorite bet of the week Detroit plus five and a half at Green Bay. I
think Detroit's gonna win this game. I would be shocked if Dan Campbell's team gets embarrassed. Now I understand the level of concern, which is if Seattle wins, Detroit is eliminated from playoff contention before this game kicks off. This is the night game, and if Seattle wins, then the NFC wildcard the final wild cards, either Green Bay or Seattle. In a weird way, I think Detroit is in a fine position no matter what happens in the Seattle game as far as covering this number.
Here's why.
If Seattle loses, Detroit is now obviously peak motivation.
We win. We're into the playoffs, right.
If Seattle wins, Detroit and Dan Campbell are still gonna want to spoil it for Aaron Rodgers. But they also can be insanely aggressive, have no worries about I think they'll go for every fourth down.
I think they will do trick plays.
I think they will do a lot of things that can catch the Packers off guard. I thinktle I think Detroit is oddly enough gonna dare Aaron Rodgers to beat him sell out to stop the run, because the reason Detroit's in this position where they don't control their own destiny is because they let Carolina run for three to twenty on them.
I think Detroit wins the game. What are they on the money line? Demonse?
I'm gonna you know what, So I like Detroit plus five and a half.
I think they win the game.
I think at the very least they keep it close because we are being reckless.
Fifty bucks on the one eighty that were on the money line.
Yeah, yeah, just one eight that would win you ninety all right, I like that.
That's not what I'm doing.
Well, I thought those were I thought it was going to be a way better number than ninety bucks.
Not doing that, Deso, Okay.
I was about to say, we're about to put in a reckless parlay. We have done eighteen of these shows, and Demons still is insistent on making fifty dollars bets that in theory can win him six hundred.
No, no, no, no, but actually win him zero.
That's not that's not my whole strat My strategy is like twenty below, okay, would be like six to eight hundred bucks.
Okay, Yeah, he's in love with the third.
Fifty to win ninety doesn't sound great to me. It's not really appealing.
Well, all these other bets would be fifty to win forty five, all right, to be minus one ten, I wouldn't be doing those, Okay, no problem, all right, I am in the spirit of that. We're gona take a quick break. I'm gonna put a fun money line parlay together for us.
We'll do that, so we wrap our Week eighteen Gambling show. That's next. What's right?
Come all right, welcome back in Week eighteen Gambling Show. We're breaking all our rules. We're betting almost every game.
The bets are as follows. Can City minus nine and a half, Jacksonville minus six, Atlanta minus four, Minnesota minus seven and a half, Indie minus two and a half, Miami plus one, Carolina plus three and a half, Pittsburgh minus two and a half, Denver minus two and a half, Giants plus fourteen, San Francisco minus fourteen, Dallas minus seven and a half, Rams plus six and a half, Detroit plus five and a half. Now I understand that is nine favorites five dogs. Not ideal. It's a lot of
stuff we normally wouldn't do. Luckily, We're gonna go eleven and three and finish above five. I'm manifesting it. I'm also gonna give you, guys, this is more up your alley. Demonse, How does plus twelve hundred sound to you? So this would be fifty to win six hundred dollars. We're gonna call this the Lions make.
The playoffs parlay.
Okay, it is Detroit on the money line plus the Rams on the money line, because the Rams have to beat Seattle for Detroit to make the playoffs. And then we are throwing in in order to make it just a little bit more.
Oh wait, hold on, I.
Can make it a little bit better, I think, let me does it make it now? We're not including that one, just to make it a little bit more juicy. The Chiefs on the money line and the Niners on the money line, two teams that I am certain are going to win and have something to play for. So the Chiefs to win against the Raiders, the Niners to win against David blou and the Cardinals.
The Rams and Baker.
May Field to go to Seattle and win, which would make Detroit at Green Bay a win and in game and Detroit to win that game.
It is twelve to one.
I am making myself that offer and I am taking that offer. That's our Week eighteen Gambling Show. Good luck to everyone. Don't do what we did. Gamble responsibly. We'll see you on Monday.