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Welcome in episode one eleven, Week seventeen NFL Gambling Show. And if I sound a little sad because we were so close to digging ourselves out of our season long hold and then a week of you know what, I'm gonna go ahead and say it. I think they were all great picks. I do, I think, and I think I can prove it to you. That's somehow despite going one in four last week. I think the process was sound, I think the logic was sound. I think we got a little unlucky in some spots. So let's show you
last week if we could. It's a one and four week and no they We're now six games under five hundred on the season. So let's go through these five games. Giants plus four, they lose by three on a sixty one yard field goal. We cover, feeling good. Cleveland minus ten or minus three? Pardon me? They were up ten to nothing in the coldest NFL game in years, playing
a New Orleans team with an Andy Dalton Taysom Hill quarterback. Combo, They're up ten to nothing at what moment in the game, with four minutes left in the second quarter, I'm laying three. They then let those dufuses in New Orleans score seventeen consecutive points and they don't score again, so they don't cover. Fine, so be it. It happens. Also, at some point there might need to be a Deshaun Watson conversation had because he once again the gas is terrible. Yeah, Vegas plus
two and a half at Pittsburgh. How's Vegas doing on Christmas Eve night? Well, they're ahead ten to three, then they're ahead ten to six with a minute left in the game. I'm getting two and a half points. So they of course allow a touchdown to lose by three. After covering the entire game, I'm getting two and a half. They were covering for fifty nine minutes and forty six seconds of that football game didn't matter. They end up losing by three Miami minus four. Well, they lose that
game out right, Nick, How can you feel good about that? Well, they're up twenty to ten in that game, and then Tua gets concussed. But no one knows he got concussed until you saw him play in the fourth quarter when he threw three picks, and all of a sudden, they lose that game out right by six minutes. And then, lastly, the one that you're gonna say is the least defensible Chicago plus eight and a half against Buffalo, Nick, the Bills. The Bills won by what they win by twenty one.
In that game, they won by twenty two. The Bears were ahead at halftime. I'm catching eight and a half. They're up ten to six at half time. They are down eight with four minutes left. I'm getting eight and a half. They lose the game by twenty two. Thames.
By the way, I also had them in a teaser, getting them in the Demonse Bird Special ten point teaser to plus eighteen and a half, and they of course, somehow to not cover the eighteen and a half despite being down by eight with four minutes left in a game they led it half to So that's how you go one in four America. We're not proud of it. We're not happy with it. We're six games under five hundred. We have never finished in NFL regular season below five hundred.
So that means this week we need to go four and one at a minimum in order to make it to war four and one. Four and one we finish at five hundred. The other is in week eighteen. If we just want to pick all sixteen games and try to run it up that way, that is a reckless thing. However, I would like to do one thing. I would as we are now approaching week eighteen or week seventeen, I would like to do one thing quickly before we get to our picks this week. Talk about our preseason bets.
Baltimore over ten and a half. They're sitting at ten wins, one more win. They hit the over Indy over nine and a half, dead Jacksonville over six and a half, already cashed, Kansas City over ten and a half, already cashed New England under eight and a half looking great, they would have to win out for us to lose that bet. Giants under seven and a half dead, Sam, wait, is it dead? Yeah, it's dead? Or hold on, is the Giants bet dead? I think it is dead. Giants
bet dead? I said over seven the Giants right now, yeah they have They're eight six and one though, So the Giants bets dead. San Francisco over nine and a half already cashed. Yeah, Tampa under eleven and a half already cashed. So that means we lost Indy and the Giants we have already won Jacksonville, Kansas City, San Francisco, and Tampa, and Baltimore needs to win one more so five and two on deck. There this bet here, which looked dead at one point. Seattle, the Jets, Atlanta, and
New England all missed the playoffs. Seattle hanging on by a thread, at Lana Out the Jets hanging on by a thread. New England hanging on by a thread. So if Detroit or Washington get the final playoff spot in the NFC and in Miami can get it together the final playoffs without the AFC, we win. Cleveland misses the playoffs minus one seventy winner Denver misses the playoffs plus one twenty winner New England misses the playoffs minus one ninety eight. We'll see, but I feel good about it.
And then if you and then I also had a division winner parlay, which isn't gonna hit because I had Indy right. But then, don't forget America the fifty to one that I gave out on our preseason gambling show super Bowl exacta Chiefs Niners don't need a winner in it. Just the Chiefs win the AFC Niners to win the NFC. So our preseason bets are super profitable. Our in season bets have been a disaster.
So so basically, what you're saying is you're better at making bets with no data.
Know that that was insulting. What I'm saying is my long term view of the season. Compiling all the offseason data was spot on. My preseason, my week to week view of the season. I've had some bad luck, but this week we turned that sucker around because I liked our bets. Last week I felt good about him. There was none of those bets. I'm like, what am I thinking? Watching those games? I felt good about him? Yeah, put that graphic up there. I was right along. That's correct.
This week we start with an underdog that's gonna win outright, the Dolphins getting two and a half at New England. So here's the deal. I think Teddy Bridgewater is gonna be fine. So Teddy Bridgewater has not had a real opportunity yet with Miami. So here's been his three games he's played with Miami. He came in mid game for two when Tua got thrown to the turf against Cincinnati. The next week, he was the listed starter. He lasted less than one series. Then he got put in concussion
protocol so he didn't play. He threw one pass. The next week, he was the backup to Skyler Thompson because he had been in concussion protocol all week. Skyler then got hurt. Teddy came in mid game, threw for three hundred yards now also threw a couple of picks, and they lost the game. But Teddy Bridgewater is yet to get a full week of practice as the one and get the full game. He's gonna get that this week.
The Patriots stink their quarterbacks awful, and I think that in a weird way, with Tua struggling the way he has the last month, Teddy is a tougher matchup for the Belichick defense because I think Tua it was very clear some things you could do to disrupt him. And one other point that I don't think people fully consider as far as how specifically difficult it is for Miami to adjust on the fly to a quarterback change as
opposed to having a full week to do it. They're starters left handed, so when Teddy came in mid game, you have to flip all your protections, you have to flip all your boot legs. You have to do everything in a mirror left to right. Now they have a full week practicing with it. Miami is gonna go to the playoffs. They're not going to go eight and three to out of the playoffs. They're gonna end New England season.
They're catching points. They're gonna win out right. Miami plus two and a half love it.
So you've made it obvious that you trust Teddy Bridgewater more.
Than Mac Jones. Yes, no question, Oh yeah, no question.
Be known. You were three and zero picking AFC East divisional games this year.
I didn't know that, but I like that. It makes me feel good. I think a couple of those are fading the Bills when they were laying big numbers against the Dolphins of the jack Yeah, so Miami plus two and a half next one is an odd game to bet because this is a don't watch. This is a how there's sixteen games this weekend? How dare you have this on one of your screens? Arizona getting three and a half at Atlanta? This is very, very simple. Why I'm doing this. We're not gonnapend much time on it.
Desmond Ridder should not be favored by more than a field goal against any team in the league. It's that simple. I don't care that Arizona is starting Trace McSorley, I don't Desmond Ridder. Have people watched Desmond Ridder? Have people watched Atlanta? My guess the answer to that is no, So Desmond Ridder. I just want to tell America what Desmond Ridder has done since he took over for Marcus Mariota.
And then Mariota got very mad and left the team, which is evidently in vogue now because Carr left the Raiders after finding out he was being benched. So what's up.
We've already spent too much time on Raiders Cardinals.
Okay, we have not. I just want to tell America what Desmond Ritter has done in his two football games. He started against this or he played against the Saints. He threw the ball twenty six times for ninety seven yards, no touchdowns, no picks. He then played against Baltimore, he threw the ball thirty three times or two hundred and eighteen yards. Give him credit for that. That resulted in a grand total of nine points all field goals. He's
yet to account for a touchdown while playing. He cannot be a three and a half point favor He just can't be. So we're taking the three and a half with trace McSorley and the sad sac Arizona Cardinals.
So what these two quarterbacks that are playing in this game. You don't see this at all as being a stay away game. Well, I two terrible quarterbacks.
Sometimes you put it in the stay away category, but not when you can get three and a half points. They're just giving me three and a half points. Why because Atlanta is gonna have some great home field advantage. They're eliminated from the playoffs. Nobody thinks they're good. They're not excited about anything. No, they're dead. They're officially eliminated. They're dead. No, Arizona plus three and a half is the play. Next, we're gonna lay a big number. San
Francisco minus ten in Vegas. Big road number against Jared's Sidham is very simple. In order for San Francisco to cover ten points against the Jared Sidham Las Vegas Raiders, they need to score fourteen points. The Raiders are not scoring more than three points in this game. DeVante Adams is furious about the car situation. He's made that very clear this week. Josh Jacob is just devastated by what
the team has done. And Jacobs is a pending free agent, and because he had such a bad game this past weekend, the kind of long shot of Kajosh Jacobs rush for two thousand yards. He went in this past week's game with fifteen hundred. So it's like, ah, have a buck fifty in each of the last two or it's the last week and this week going to the final week, be like, yeah, pop off a two hundred yard game, you have two thousand yards. No, he had fifty yards.
So he's he's going to keep himself healthy. Devonte's upset they're going to Jared Stidam. They're playing for draft positioning. San Francisco, on the other hand, still faintly alive for the one seed, definitely alive for the two seed, which they really want. San Francisco is going to annihilate Jared's Stidham, who's not an NFL quarterback. San Francisco minus ten to play question.
Yeah, this is one of those games since Derek Carr is being benched for Jared Stidham. Yeah, this is one of those situations where you bet where you wish you bet early in the week because it opened at minus seven and he went down to minus ten.
Okay, yeah, I missed the opportunity online value. There's no question there. However, I think it is instructive that it only went from seven to ten. That's why I love it. Derek Carr might not be great, he is worth more than three points than Jared Stidham. Jared Stidham's not an NFL quarterback. He was drafted by the Patriots. I'm gonna pull up Jared Stidham's career numbers just so everyone understands
what I'm talking about here. The Raiders, I think they are all in on either Brady or Garoppolo this offseason, reunite with Josh McDaniels, and they're moving on from Carr because they don't The reason they benched Car is they don't want him to get hurt, and then they're on the hook for his money. Jared Stidham in his career, has thrown the ball sixty one times. In those sixty one attempts, he has somehow managed to throw four interceptions.
That's one interception every fifteen pass attempts for this guy. He's not an NFL player. He has thrown let mean, thirteen total passes in the last two seasons. He's up against the best defensive football all lay the ten points. Next, another underdog that I think is gonna win out right. Oh my god, I just dropping his computer. Minnesota plus three and a half at green Bay. Why is there all this steam on green Bay? Why is there so much belief in green Bay? On Nick? They're hot? Are they?
They go ahead?
Rogers undefeated in December?
Okay, so let's talk about Okay, let's talk about Rogers in December, because this is what I keep hearing. Oh, green Bay is dangerous. Green Bay's hot streak is beating the Bears, who right now would have the second pick of the draft, beating the Rams, who would right now have the sixth pick of the draft, and beating the Dolphins in a game that Rogers didn't play that well that to a melted down in We now think in
part because he had a concussion. Rogers in this three game winning streak is actually playing worse than he was playing in the previous dozen games. He has three touchdowns and two picks and an eighty five rating and averaging two hundred and ten yards per game. In this winning streak, Minnesota is still live for the one seed. They much like San Francisco, want to be the two seed if they can't get to the one. And you're giving me not You're not just giving me points, you're giving me
more than a field goal. What's up.
The Vikings are also zero and three against the spread in the last three games.
Yeah, but that's so. Here's the thing. Let me double check.
That Aaron Rodgers is gonna be playing with that chip on his shoulder. You know, he's got a chance. There's light at the end of the tunnel as far as the playoffs.
So the Viking are zero and three against the spread, but only one of those games was a loss. They beat the Colts. They beat the Giants. Now, the Colts game was weird, they're down thirty three. Nothing came storing back Giants game they won by a field goal at the gun, getting three and a half. They're the better team. The backers have no way to guard Justin Jefferson. No way, is it? So you like Green Bay? It's gonna be wondering.
I mean, what's what you just said. You said though those three games they only lost one game? Yea, none were losses. No, they lost to Troy one of them, right, Yeah, I mean, so what you're saying is you want them on the money line and not the minus three point five three.
And a half. I'm getting played and a half. Sorry, that's why I'm getting three and a half in this spot. The Yeah, I wouldn't lay three and a half with Minnesota. All their games are field goal games. But I'm getting three and a half points. It's the right side. There is way too much optimism about the Packers, who are gonna lose this weekend and they're gonna realize they missed a golden opportunity to play Jordan Love and finally the aime of the year, I'm getting the better team at
home and a point Cincinnati plus one against Buffalo. Cincinnati this year has been wildly undervalued by Vegas twelve and three against the spread. Buffalo continues to be slightly overvalued by Vegas seven and eight against the spread. We don't now. I am a little nervous about the Liel Collins injury. Cincinnati has not shown the ability to deal with rotating offensive line pieces you saw at the beginning of the year.
With that said, Buffalo, no von Miller isn't going to be able to take advantage of it as much as I think certain teams would that. For Cincinnati, this is this keeps them alive for the number one seed. Conversely, if they lose, they might end up being the five seed,
not even winning their division. Buffalo has one game games over the last six weeks, with the exception of one game, despite the play of their quarterback Josh Allen once again last week a couple picks less than two hundred yards passing game in Cincinnati is the biggest Monday night football game in the history of that stadium. Cincinnati is gonna win outright. I'm getting point, getting one point, not getting a lot of points, but I'm getting a point at home.
I would bet Cincinnati all the way to minus two and a half. I'm getting them plus one. They're gonna win. It also is gonna be so helpful for the Chiefs when we wake up Tuesday morning and Cincinnati's beaten Buffalo. Guess who's the one seed again? Uh? All the Chiefs with and you know the Chiefs this week have Denver. We'll talk about that game in a moment. And next week you know who they have, Jared Sidham, All Jared Stidham.
So I am rooting for Cincinnati in this game. I also think the smarter side Cincinnati plus.
One Bills have a lot to lose in this game. Are you sure that the Bengals are going to be able to overpower that force?
I think they're better than them. I think Cincinnati is better than Buffalo. I think they've been better throughout the year. Their quarterback's been better, I think the defense has been more consistent. I like Cincinnati, and I understand this is a massive game for both teams, either of these. I don't think it's as big.
A I mean, I guess, well, the thing is is it might be a little bit bigger for the Bills.
Well, listen, the Bills at the very least know their worst case scenarios. They fall to the three line, They've won their division. Cincinnati is only a game up on Baltimore and has Baltimore in Week eighteen. Cincinnati absolutely could fall to the five line if they lose this game. If things go awry for them, they so it's huge for both teams. It's huge for Kansas City, who's not
even playing in it. We like Cincinnati plus one. So if you want to know what a five and oh slate looks like, you know what, And you guys at the end of the show are gonna get me an offer. I don't even need an offer. I'm just gonna parlay all five twenty five to one, Miami plus two and a half, and you know what, it's gonna be better than twenty five to one because I'm putting Miami, Minnesota in Cincinnati. I don't even need the points where we're
putting them on the money line. Miami plus two and a half, Arizona plus three and a half, San Francisco minus ten, Minnesota plus three and a half, and Cincinnati plus one. Let's just find out real quick what that exact bet that I just described what that would pay. And I'm not certain about Minnesota on the money line. I might be squeamish on that, but let's just go through it real quick. So what did I say. I gotta find out Miami money line plus one thirty and
then we're doing San Francisco minus ten. We'll do Minnesota plus the points plus the three and a half, just because Cincinnati on the money line, and there's one more than I'm leaving Arizona. Oh, boring, the boring one where Arizona getting three, Oh my god, thirty two forty to one, thirty two to one, thirty two to one, Demontsy, you and me, we're gonna we're putting that in there. Five and oh week giving us a little breathing room going
could be one game under five hundred going into week eighteen. Yeah, save the season. Oh, this is a this is a great week. It is a great week.
I'm rooting for you. It's uh.
The offer hit last week and we didn't bet it. It ended up hitting Lebron's over Lucas over the Jacks to win and the Chiefs to cover the offer hit the plus twelve hundred. No, that was it. The Chiefs won by fourteen.
I thought something with Luca had happen. Or Lebron.
No, Lebron scored thirty eight. On Christmas, Lucas scored scored thirty two. They all everything hit. The offer hit last week, the third or fourth offered hit. A lot of them have hit. All right. We have a massive slate this weekend. We haven't in stay aways, be careful's in perfectly priced. I'm gonna go through all of these. I'm gonna spend less time on why they're in each category for certain games, and more time on the actual game because we have
so many interesting games. We do that next What's Right Week seventeen Gambling Show.
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All right, welcome back in week seventeen. What's Right NFL Gambling Show. Here's our stay away category. There's four games. Some of these are super interesting games. The games are Cleveland at Washington, New Orleans at Philly, Jacksonville at Houston, and Denver at Kansas City. So Cleveland at Washington is a stay away for a couple of reasons. One is the Washington football team on the cusp of the postseason.
Switching to Carson Wentz is a very curious decision. Now, listen, Taylor, Heineke's been bad, and I totally understand that, But then making a quarterback change at this moment for a guy who last year melted down at the end of the season for the Colts and cost them what should have been a lot for the playoffs is odd. I'm staying away from it, however, because I to me, Deshaun Watson right now, just from a football perspective, is one of
the most curious players in the league. He's been terrible, really terrible in every game he's played it with the Browns. It's hard to believe he's just now this bad.
You're scared he's gonna turn it off at some point.
You've gotta think the rust is gonna come off now. Maybe the two years out of football and everything that, uh, you know, he put himself through this offseason, maybe it's too much for him. But that's just stay away. The two quarterbacks are such big question marks. I'm not getting enough points to love Cleveland there when Washington has to
have the game. So I'm staying away. New Orleans at Philly is to stay away because of the unknown that Philly keeps being cagey, acting like Jalen Hurts might play. I don't know enough about the quarterback spot. Also, Philly, I want to see how they look without Wayne Johnson New Orleans. Technically, I'm still alive for the playoffs, but not really the six and a half. It's too much unknown for the Philly quarterback situation for me want to have anything to do. So even if Jalen.
Hurts isn't playing, Minsho just went toe to toe with the Cowboys and had a pretty decent game. Yep, And he's not even getting a full touchdown at home against the Saints.
Yeah, it's also just a weird spot for Philly, which is they they probably need to win one more game to lock up the one seed, but they know if they win, they don't have to win both. So are they going to be super cautious with the injuries this week? Try to play every one in Week eighteen? Just too many unknowns. Maybe this is a game you can bet Sunday morning as we record this on Thursday. Not enough information for me. I'm staying away. Jacksonville at Houston, So Houston,
it's Jacksonville's laying four and a half. Houston shouldn't want to win this game because since they won last week, the number one pick is now in jeopardy. If they win one more, Chicago could take it from him. If Chicago lose out and Houston wins one more. Also, Jacksonville's in a really weird spot because no matter what happens this week, Jacksonville wins or loses the division based on their Week eighteen game against Tennessee. Even if they win
this week and Tennessee loses this week, it's meaningless. If they lose this week and Tennessee wins this week it's meaningless. So both of Tennessee and Jacksonville are playing semi meaningless games this week because the division is gonna come down to Week eighteen. The only way this week matters is if Tennessee Jacksonville in week eighteen is a tie, then what happens this week could matter. So that's not gonna happen. So I don't know. I would imagine Jacksonville is gonna
be uber conservative in this game. Anyone who is potentially dealing with a nagging anything is gonna sit out this week. That's what Tennessee's already doing with their guys. So I don't feel comfortable laying the four and a half point. I also don't want to grab four and a half points with Houston because Houston might have an edict from management that we have to lose. We want Bryce Young, we want the number one pick, we don't want to win.
And so now what will be very interesting if that is the case, is Houston the final week of the year plays Indy. So what happens when one team that's trying to lose plays one team that's coached by Jeff Saturday. Who knows? It could be total Mayhem. But so to me that to stay away in that spot.
So you've picked the prince that was promised time and time after again. You're one and six against the well, they're one and six against the spread when you pick them. I know now that Trevor Lawrence is dealing. You want to stay away from him, and you don't think that he can snap his Textans. His Texans losing streak.
The four and a half is weird to me. I'm just I don't know how much Jacksonville is gonna take this game. Seriously. This is again a Sunday. What if they all of a sudden have ten guys that were questionable that are aren't gonna play because they need to be healthy going into Week eighteen against Tennessee. So I'm just staying away. Last one's Denver at Kansas City. So Kansady has not been great at covering huge numbers. Furthermore, there is always no that is true, but I shouldn't
say always. There is always the possibility of the fired coach bounce that the team for a week gets invigorated because the coach got fired. Now, I don't think that's gonna happen with Denver because Russ is still there, and I think the frustrations towards Russ and not to hack it as much, but I'm staying away from it.
Exactly what is just I mean, this isn't about the bet or anything, but exactly what you just said about the fired coach bounce back is exactly what happens to me when I like play Madden and that pisses me off and I get smacked and I get off of it. Then I get back on it, like a couple days later or something, and then I just spank somebody.
I don't think that's the exact same thing, but I think it is the same thing.
I think that's like like I'm firing myself. I gotta get off the game.
Oh, I get it yourself to come back. I get it. All right, there you go. All right, be careful. Category three games Pittsburgh at Baltimore, Chicago at Detroit, Indie at the Giants. All Right, we're being careful with Pittsburgh at Baltimore because it seems like they're daring you to bet Baltimore because you don't have to lay the full three the two and a half points. Seems like they're like, why don't you just take Baltimore. They need the game. Pittsburgh.
I understand they're still technically alive for the playoffs, but not really. Pittsburgh last week needed, uh, you know, an end of game miracle to beat the Raiders. Now they're in Baltimore and they're only getting two and a half points. I almost included Pittsburgh and the picks because this seems so fishy. Baltimore also the question they need to get Lamar back at some point before the postseason, and if
they do, they could be dangerous. To me, this is a I think the vast majority of the public is going to be on Baltimore because it's not the full three, so I'm staying away from it.
And also along with that, the Ravens have lost only one game against the spread in December versus Tomlin in the last decade. Seems like some free money.
See there you go. That's what I'm saying, Like I everyone's going to be on Baltimore. I'm not going to be part of everyone. Chicago at Detroit. Detroit has to have the game, Detroit is in position to make the postseason. Chicago keeps getting blown out by people. Why is this not seven? Why is it Detroit minus just six when Chicago Those defense has been this terrible, Detroit at home,
that offense has been excellent. They need the game. Detroit got embarrassed last week, so they're extra motivated they can sneak into the playoffs. Feels like a trap.
Justin feels gonna have a field day. That's what they're saying. Well, the only thing they could be saying.
Here's the thing about that. I think the public is going to be all over Detroit because they are laying less than a touchdown. I think Detroit wins, but that line. I know this sounds dumb and it's not really accurate, but I would almost feel better about it if it were Detroit minus seven. Because it's Detroit minus six, it feels like a Vegas trap. We're staying away. And lastly, India the Giants a lot of the exact same logic there. These are two teams that gotta win, Giants win, and
they're in the playoffs. They're playing two awful teams that are on long losing streaks. Why are they not laying the full seven? These are potential playoff teams at home and gotta have it games. Why are they not laying the full seven because for the Giants, the Giants should make the playoffs. But if they lose this week, next week they have Philly, and so are the it is they do have Philly next week, right, I know it's a divisional game. I'm almost certain it's Giants Philly in
week eighteen. Yet it is. And so the Giants know that this is our spot to lock into the playoffs and they could potentially give themselves a mini buy if they don't care about their playoff seed. They just win this week, We're locked into the playoffs, can rest in week eighteen. It feels trappy, So we're we're staying away. And now lastly, Gabe's saying we need a new category.
Nick overthinks, all right, let's just watch make a little note of this that Nick says the public is going to be on to Troy and the Giants and the line should be seven in their six. And it feels trappy. And let's see what happened in those games, all right, Last, perfectly priced Carolina at Tampa. Tampa will play a bad football game. It will be an ugly football game, and they will win by a field goal. They'll force Sam Darnold into a bad turnover. They'll win by a field goal.
It's perfectly priced. Jets at Seahawks. The Jets with Mike White are a good team. The Seahawks look totally incompetent against Kansas City. If it wasn't and I know you don't care about travel the way I do, if it wasn't the Jets having to go all the way to Seattle, it would be Jets probably minus two and a half or minus three. Instead, it's Jets minus one and a half. That to me is exactly right. I could see Seattle winning this game at home. The Jets should win this game.
It's kind of an elimination game for either of these teams playoff wise. That the line is exactly right in my.
Mind, Seahawks being home dogs versus the Jets is kind of crazy. So we're saying that Mike White is here now and Gino is right here.
Well, I think the Jets overall rosters better. I like the Jets roster, and the Jets next year with Derek Carr are going to be dangerous. I think Derek Carr is gonna go to the Jets. I think they're gonna paying a lot of money is gonna go to the Jets, and then last one Rams at the Chargers. Chargers laying
six and a half. The Chargers in a weird spot because they have locked up a playoff spot, but the five seed is valuable because the five seed means you go to Jacksonville in round one as opposed to playing Buffalo, Cincinnati or Kansas City. Who would be the two of those teams are gonna be the two and the three, So the Chargers should take care of business. The Rams are a little frisky with Baker a little bit. Six and a half minus seven feels right. So there are
the games for this weekend. All right, we will give you the right move. I already gave you guys the offer thirty two to one, already locked in. We'll do all that. Wrap up the show. Week seventeen Gambling Show Next What's right? All right? Welcome back in Week seventeen Gambling Show. Our five picks this week Miami plus two and a half at New England, Arizona plus three and a half at Atlanta, San Francisco minus ten at Vegas, Minnesota, plus three and a half at Green Bay and Cincinnati
plus one against Buffalo. Our lock of the week. The right move is Miami getting points in New England. Miami and Teddy Bridgewater are going to lock up a playoff spot, eliminate New England and end everything for that the AFC. I guess it won't technically end everything to the AFC seven seed. I don't think they officially clinched with a win this week, but they they actually might clinch with a win this week. They definitely clinched with a win
this week if other things happen. You know what, let me I want to get this exactly right. I don't want to give the audience bad information. Let me just go ahead and check. Either way, that's our pick. But Miami, if they win this week, is it one hundred percent lock during the playoffs, No, they need a cut. I think they need the Jets to lose as well and they be called one hundred percent lock to make the playoffs. Let me see if that's right.
Yep.
If Miami wins and the Jets lose, Miami's lock for the playoffs. If Miami wins and the Jets win, the winner of Jets Miami in Week eighteen goes to the playoffs. So either way, Miami gets this win, they eliminate the Patriots. That's our right move. We do not have a teaser for you this week. They are not great teaser lines
this week. We don't love any of them. Our exotic of the week, however, that I'm giving you is Miami on the money line, Arizona plus three and a half, San Francisco minus ten, Minnesota plus three and a half, and Cincinnati on the money line. It pays thirty two to one. Demons, you have an offer for me that you would like to make. Go right ahead.
The Dolphins on the graphic.
Oh I didn't even see that. Oh they put they added all our picks there. I like that. That's cool. Go ahead.
The Chiefs are playing the Broncos, and I'm pretty sure Mahlmes is about to put on a show. So how about Mahomes to be the first touchdown score and Mahomes to be the last touchdown score?
Okay, I hate this bet.
All in all plus twenty five to twenty five.
Two hundred fifty five to one. So I wouldn't hate that bet if they were playing a better team against the Broncos, Mahomes is gonna run the ball almost none. I think it's just gonna try to stay healthy going into the postseason. I'm gonna give you one little gambling note here, that same guy being the first and last touchdown scorer. The people I think think of it as a bet that you would make in like, oh, this guy's gonna score a bunch of touchdowns. That's not the
way to win that specific type of bet. The way to win that specific type of bet is finding any time saying no is to find a bad weather, low scoring type of game where you think there's only gonna be one touchdown scored the whole game, because then the guy who scores the first is the guy who scores
the last. So a game that you think is gonna be twelve to ten and trying to nail who that one touchdown scorer is not a game that you think is gonna have a bunch of touchdowns and you're just gonna hit the exact again, a guy to scored the first and last touchdowns incredibly difficult bet to hit. But the through line to hit it is if you think there's only gonna be one touchdown score in the game, and then the guy who scores the first is the guy who scores the last. That's the way to do it.
I'm not taking your offer. I like my offer better at thirty two and a half to one was we're gonna hit that and then we're gonna hit our fifty to one preseason Chiefs Niners, super Bowl. Bet we're gonna be rolling in money five and Oero week on deck. We'll talk to you guys on Monday. Sorry, by the way, that we didn't ever show this past Monday. I had to fill in for Colin Television obligations took precedent. My apologies. We'll be back on Monday no matter what. Talk to
you guys then. Happy New Year. Hey, it's Niggart. Thank you so much for watching. Please do us a favorite. Click subscribe. It helps my ego and Demansey's got a financial bonus writing on a number of YouTube subscribers, so help him out. And also click the bell. I don't know what the bell does, but they tell me to tell you to click the bell. And your audio listeners, people that have commute strives, whatever it is, subscribe to
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