Week 16 NFL Bets: Nick's Picks - podcast episode cover

Week 16 NFL Bets: Nick's Picks

Dec 23, 202245 minEp. 113
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Episode description

After back to back winning weeks, Nick looks to continue his momentum heading into week 16. With a few home favorites on the list, will this be the week that launches him to an overall winning record or make it that much harder for him to reach? And after a teaser went wrong for Damonza, Nick gives out some fatherly gambling advice on how to beat them. Plus an offer too good to refuse.

05:15 - Picks of the Week

19:50 - Stay Away

25:10 - Be Careful

28:45 - Perfectly Priced

31:00 - Damonza's Poor Luck

42:00 - The Offer

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Transcript

Speaker 1

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Speaker 2

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Speaker 1

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Speaker 3

Welcome in episode one oh nine, What's Right with Nick Wright, our Week sixteen NFL gambling show, and right as we're about to record, we have listen. Today's going to be an important episode because we are recording on Thursday, you will hear it on Friday. Typically that we don't really discuss the Thursday night game because it's not actionable for you guys. However, there is a nice symmetry between the story of the Prince that was promised in the Jacksonville

Jaguars who play Thursday Night and Our Picks. Season started off with great optimism, had some really nice early moments and then a deadly cold streak in the middle of the year that seemingly left the team for dead, and then a surge at the end. And are they going to sneak into the playoffs? Well, Ryan Tannehill's done for the year. The Jags control their own destiny. By the time you hear this, the Jags will have beaten the

New York Jets on Thursday night. I'm calling my shot, much like our picks, written off for dead after some disastrous weeks, and then last week, while we did not do a show, we did publicly post five picks. And if those aren't five perfect picks, I don't know what is. We'll start with the one loser, Minnesota minus three and a half. Well, they won by three and had the

greatest comeback in the history of the sport. I had the guts, the courage to lay three points with the Broncos backup quarterback against Arizona, and that was never in doubt. Pittsburgh plus three against Carolina, I said on the TV show the coaching mismatch between Tomlin and Wilkes the Steelers, I didn't care it was Trubisky, the Steelers getting three points. Carolina way overvalued everyone's like, oh, they can make the playoffs. Nonsense,

total nonsense. They went out right, the Giants plus four and a half. They went out right and our right move. I told you guys, the Bills don't blow people out. The Bills were very lucky to win that game. They Josh Allen fumbled for a second consecutive play with the Bills down eight, but they recovered it. Credit to the Bills for it taking care of business. And I guess you could say we got a little lucky not to end with a push there because the Bills could have

run into the end zone. They did and they end up kicking the field goal. But regardless, that's a four and one week. So our record on the season is now thirty six, thirty nine and two, three games under five hundred. Much like the Jacksonville Jaguars, as we record our two games under five hundred, with a chance to get hot and be the team no one wants to see come the postseason. All we need to Oh, oh you think I'm drunking, Oh you think the I'm telling you right now?

Speaker 4

You think the the feal boys certainly don't want to see him sat in?

Speaker 3

Okay, that's true, and and that's the other thing in the C block. In our third segment of today's show, we're going to discuss in full uh demands break you know, the ten Crack Commandments from Biggie. You're familiar to the song.

Speaker 4

Oh no, yeah, I can't let you just school me on some Biggie stuff. I'm just gonna say that I know what you're talking about, and we're gonna move on from it.

Speaker 3

Well, you, no, it's not. I mean, it's just because I mean it came out five years before you were born. But don't get high on your own supply the oh yeah, the Scarface Okay, well scarf, yes, so some of it from Starface to movie. Yes. Uh. And Demonse broke eight of the ten Gambling Commandments on Sunday and it led lost, well lost. Now you're breaking the ninth, which is denial, which is being in denial about your mistakes, which will lead to more of the same mistake And so we

we will discuss that later. But we are right there alive for a winning season. Here's an amazing fact before we get to our picks this week. Every week on TV I take my three favorite picks from the Gambling Show and make them my three television picks, despite being thirty six, thirty nine and two on the Gambling Show, I am on TV at sixty one percent against the spread and over the last six weeks of television picks

thirteen three and two. So somehow I am kind of dancing through the rain drops on TV with the picks. The larger pick sample not quite as good. But they're all going to be good this week. I love them all. We're red hot. We're making money Texas Dolly Doyle Brunson, who tails our picks, He's making money. Everyone's making money right now, except for my co host Demanse, who got crushed on Sunday.

Speaker 2

And we will discuss.

Speaker 3

We will start here first pick of the week, getting back on that Giants horse Giant plus four at Minnesota. The Vikings are not good. I don't know the Giants are good either. Back, I think the Giants are very good either. However, the Giants know that they essentially they can lock up a wildcard spot with a win this weekend. After the big win against Washington Minnesota, I would imagine there has to be something of a letdown after the

biggest comeback in an NFL history and the Vikings a letdown. Yeah, no, it's such an emotional comeback victory. Yeah, draining exactly a bit of an emotional letdown. Also, the Vikings are in a weird spot where they it's not impossible, but it's almost impossible for them to get the one seed. They're not going to fall to the four line, so they

are essentially locked into the two or the three. Now, now you can argue the three is the two is way more valuable than the three because you would then get to host theoretically San Francisco instead of going to San Francisco. I understand that part of it, but I think the Giants defense will be able to give Minnesota some measure of trouble. I don't know that the Giants are gonna win, but four points this should be two points.

It's four points. It obviously crosses the key three. So I like the Giants plus four is our first pick of the week.

Speaker 4

Doesn't seem a little too easy to you, as you know, being that the Giants tend to cover against the spread. I think they're ten and four against the spread this well this year, yep, and Minnesota never blows up teams.

Speaker 3

Well, the too easy is a first cousin of be careful right, or where it's like, wait, they're daring you to pick this. I really only worry about that. I shouldn't say only, but that typically is when a favorite looks too easy, you know, like when it's like, wait, this team should be favored by happen the only favorite

by three? Those are the ones that scare me. It's because the public does not typically bang underdogs, and so if an underdog line, If I like the underdog and it seems like the lion's mispriced, those are my favorite bets. If I like a favorite and it seems like it's way mispriced, those feel trappy, Like wait, what does Vegas know that I don't know? But the Giants plus four, I just think it's I think this is a three point game in either direction. Next Cleveland minus three against

New Orleans. All Right, Deshaun Watson is not going to consistently. He's going to get better to a degree. Now, is he gonna be worth that money? Is that going to be a good contract? It doesn't look like it, but he's going to be better than he's been. Additionally, the Saints are awful and they have the worst coach in the NFL, and I'm including that Hackett in that they have the worst coach in the NFL. The fact that

this is not in Cleveland also is sneaky. Still alive for the playoffs, They're not in my mind, but Matt at six and eight, they're like, if we run the table, win some tiebreakers, nine and eight could get us in. I think Cleveland will run the hell out of the ball. I think Miles Garrett will force at least one fumble on Andy Dalton or Taysom Hill, whomever the Saints have played quarterback on any given snap. This should be Cleveland. I believe minus six it's Cleveland minus three.

Speaker 2

I like Cleveland.

Speaker 3

I don't think we have bet on Cleveland once all year, and I like them in this spot at home. The only hesitation I have is bad weather, snowy weather. I tend to favor underdogs because but this in since Cleveland's kind of built for the bad weather, because they will just run the football if you let them.

Speaker 2

So you think they'll have like an edge, and.

Speaker 3

Well, yeah, I think if the if the conditions are poor, they can just hand the ball to Nick Chubb thirty five times Nick Chubb and Cream Hunt They're gonna be fine with that. So I like Cleveland minus the three. Uh, is there something you want to ask about the game?

Speaker 2

Man?

Speaker 4

That over under is probably gonna be the lowest that it's been since I've been alive. Maybe really Yeah, because of the weather, yeah, and the teams.

Speaker 3

Yeah. So let me look and see what the total in the game is. In the Cleveland game, Oh my god, that is the That is going to be the lowest total in any game in years. In twenty years. The totals thirty two and a half. That's an Army Navy total. So Navy, Yeah, Army Navy. They play teams, yeah, they play and it's a It goes under almost every single year. So a total that low, again pushes you towards the underdog because you're getting points. They don't expect a lot

of points. I understand that. I'm gonna stay strong with Cleveland at Cleveland minus three. That's our second pick of the week. Third pick, the Bills don't blow people out. Chicago getting eight and a half against Buffalo, it's just too many points. And I would imagine again, the weather is going to be a massive factor in any game that's being played in the Northeast this weekend. Also, Josh Allen popped up as a limited participant on the Bills

practice report for the first time since before Thanksgiving. They rant listen that Miami game was critical to them. All these games are critical because they can't lose and stay the one seed. The Miami game was extra critical because had they lost that one, Miami would be to facto half game out of first place in the division and Buffalo could have fallen all the way to the five line. Buffalo had Miami last week, huge game. They have Cincinnati next week.

Speaker 2

That's interesting, huge game.

Speaker 3

So Buffalo right now could be the one, the two, or the three. Same with Kansas City, same with Cincinnati, so that's a massive game. They are now going to be playing in horrific conditions against a Bears team that the Bears weakness will They have a lot of them, but they can't block for Justin Fields. But he's such a magician. He gets out and runs. We saw some of the most amazing quarterback runs we've ever seen watching him this weekend. Their other giant weakness is every aspect

of their defense, particularly their past defense. In these conditions, I don't think there's gonna be a lot of passing now. Josh Allen is a deadly weapon with his leg. He ran so much and got so banged up against the bank against the Dolphins. I would imagine if the Bills have any sense whatsoever, they are going to try to make this a fast game. Hand the ball to their running backs, keep Josh out of harm's way. That leads

to a low scoring game. The Bears are going to be running the ball that leads to a low scoring game. The Bears, as they showed last week against the Eagles, even when they're down double digits, are not out of it. From a covering perspective, Getting eight and a half is such a great number to where even if they're down ten late, if they're down fourteen late, hell fifteen late,

you're still alive for the cover. And the Bills, aside from the Patriots, have they They have not beaten anyone by two scores since the first week of October when they played the Steelers and beat them thirty five to three. That's the other than the again, other than the Patriots, who they beat twenty four to ten. So that's a blowout, but it's a low scoring blowout. They have not blown anyone out in two plus months. Chicago plus eight and a half. Next, the Raiders getting two and a half

at Pittsburgh. This one's pretty simple. Obviously, you'd rather it be three, There's no doubt about it. You'd rather it be three. But I actually don't know if the three is quite as valuable when it's going to again be these weather and kicking conditions because you got miss extra points, missed field goals. The Raiders are in the same bucket as the Browns, where they're still alive thanks to being six and eight, where they're not actually alive, but they're

not going to give up on the season. Steelers, by the way, in that same bucket at six and eight. I just think this is the Raiders after the win last week against the Patriots, which what got overshadowed because of how the game ended was that the Raiders were the far better team. The Raiders outplayed the Patriots soundly throughout the game, car through an unfathomably bad pick six

that got the Patriots back in it. The Patriots then field goal, field goal, field goal, They all of a sudden have a lead, and then the Raiders have a magnificent final drive complete a fourth and ten, a great ball to kill and Cole in the corner of the end zone. I don't know if he was in or out, but they called him in in order to tie the game. And then they had the stirring Chandler Jones mush face on Mac Jones. The Raiders, I think win this game outright.

If they don't, this feels like it absolutely could be a sixteen to fourteen game where even if they don't win, the two and a half is enough to cover. I like the Raiders now. Last week I picked the Steelers because the coaching edge Tomlin versus Wilkes. There again is a pretty significant coaching edge Tomlin versus McDaniel. But I think the Raiders have an overwhelming talent edge in this game. The Steelers don't run the ball all that well, and this is gonna be a run game. The Raiders plus

two and a half. And then lastly Miami minus four against Green Bay. I think right now this is an undervalued Dolphins team and an overvalued Packers team. So the Packers, everyone's given them credit because, oh they're alive and they could make the postseason. They're not making the postseason. Oh they've they've turned their season around. My question would be this, have the Packers turned their season around or have the Packers simply gotten to the part of the schedule where

they get the Bears and then the Rams. I think it's more that Miami, on the other hand, I thought really played well against Buffalo. I thought they're running. I thought they showed you in the Buffalo game. What if a team sells out to just stop the pass what they can do on the ground. Miami also is desperate for a win, having lost three in a row. They're not going to miss the playoffs, but they need another

win to ensure they don't miss the playoffs. Them being favored by only four points at home in what is a game that should not be drastically affected by weather because it's in Miami is disrespectful to what the Dolphins have accomplished throughout the year. I think this should be Miami minus six and a half. It's Miami minus four. I don't think that the Packers can stay attached to Hill and Waddle all game. And here is an amazing stat.

How many games this year do you think Aaron Rodgers has thrown for three hundred yards?

Speaker 2

One zero?

Speaker 3

How many games this year, is Aaron Rodgers thrown for two hundred and sixty yards?

Speaker 2

You want to give it a guess?

Speaker 3

No, No, you don't know, Okay, no problem.

Speaker 2

Zero zero, okay, two sixty? Wow?

Speaker 3

To not throw for two sixty. The reason that people are like, oh, the Packers, if they get hot, if they sneak in, if it's pretending they have the Aaron Rodgers that the two years he won League MVP, the last two years had a touchdown interception ratio of eighty five to nine, eighty five to nine over two years such an interception. This year it's twenty three to ten. And he hasn't thrown for more than two hundred and fifty five yards once all season. So for all those reasons,

I think Miami is the better team. I think Miami is undervalued here. I like Miami minus four and so that Miami's the pick. So our five picks for the week coming off a four and one week where the one loss was by a half point. The Giants getting four in minutes, the Bears getting eight and a half at home against Buffalo, Cleveland laying three against New Orleans, the Raiders getting two and a half at Pittsburgh, and Miami laying four against Green Bay. There's our five picks.

We have a very interesting second segment coming where we put the games in stay aways, be carefuls and perfectly priced. We have five a full five stay away games because of quarterback injuries over the course of the last few weeks that affect these games. We will discuss all of those games next. What's right.

Speaker 5

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Speaker 3

All right, welcome back. In episode one oh nine, Week sixteen gambling show, we just gave you our five picks. We'll recap them real quick here again. Giants plus four, Bears plus eight and a half, Raiders plus two and a half, Cleveland minus three, and Miami minus four. We now, as we always have you new to the Gambling Show. The way we do it is we take all the games of the weekend and then we put them in three categories, the picks we're gonna make, the stay aways,

the beat carefuls, and the perfectly priced. This is the most stayaways we've ever had. We have five stay aways this week Houston at Tennessee, Seattle at Kansas City, Atlanta at Baltimore, Billy Dallas, Denver at the Rams. So we'll explain them all quickly, but there's most of them involve quarterback questions. So Tennessee is laying three at home against Houston. Ryan Tannehill is out for the season, so it's Malik Willis play. Malik Willis has not shown the ability yet

to be an NFL quarterback. With that said, the Texans have not shown the ability yet to win football games. And I understand they came this close to being Dallas, this even closer to beating the Chiefs. I don't have a read on if coming that close and losing those games is going to be galvanizing for them, Like we're that close getting over the hump or if they're gonna

be like it's Christmas, those were our chances. We stink we're mailing it in that plus the quarterback issue in Tennessee just don't bet on.

Speaker 2

This game, all right.

Speaker 4

So so, knowing the Tannehills out, they did the minus three thing, what I want to say is, I think Tennessee is I don't give it crap about Tanneill not being in. I think they're gonna be that team that exposed them again for the Houston Texans, and I think they're gonna blow them out.

Speaker 2

And I think the minus three. Hey, I'm not telling you guys a bet on it, but I think the minus three.

Speaker 3

Is so one of your picks this week if you hadn't retired from gambling on Sunday, would be Tennessee minus three. Yeah. Possibly, but it sounds like definitely. Yeah, sounds like definitely Tennessee minus three. Okay. I'm not saying that's a wrong pick. I'm simply saying it's too much uncertainty for me for that to be on my card. Seattle at Kansas City minus ten is a stay away purely for this reason.

I don't know if Kansas here's the deal. There is a possibility that Kansas City is not as good as I believe they are.

Speaker 2

Here we go.

Speaker 3

There is another possibility that Kansas City is doing the bare minimum it needs to do in these games to book a win and to stay healthy. Because one thing that is noteworthy is the Chiefs haven't had a player injured in a game in three weeks. That's almost impossible in the NFL. Now, some of that's luck, but also some of that is you can coach a certain way and play call a certain way to minimize injury risk.

It also minimizes explosiveness, and you know what I mean, a lot of things, and I do wonder they got up twenty seven to nothing on Denver and then when Uber conservative except for Mahomes, made some big mistakes and got away with a win against Houston.

Speaker 2

They were taking Kelsey out a lot, It seemed like taking They were taking Travis Kelsey.

Speaker 3

On a lot out of the game exactly in yes, because I and I think that's now They could have looked that could have cost him against Houston, But I don't think they anticipated Bucker missing the kicks, the two fumbles, all those things, right, So my point is against Seattle. I just I don't know if the Chiefs right now, unless the other team turns the ball over a bunch

are going to coach to blow people out. But you also should not feel comfortable grabbing the ten with a Chiefs team that has to win at home against the Seattle team that's that's trending downwards. So to me, it's a stay away.

Speaker 2

Go ahead. Okay, I'm gonna play Devil's advocating real quick.

Speaker 4

If you weren't a Chiefs fan, I feel like you'd have to definitely bet on this game considering that Pat Mahomes never covers big numbers and Seattle is extremely desperate at this point of the season.

Speaker 3

Okay, that there is an argument to be made there that I maybe would do that. The flip side, though, is the Chiefs haven't covered in three weeks or four weeks, depending on where you got the Rams Chiefs line at. They're not gonna They're not gonna not cover the rest of the year. So at some point they're gonna cover one of these big numbers. And so I to me, I'm just staying away from it. Atlanta at Baltimore. I'll be very quick here. Desmond Ritter it's such an unknown

if he can play at this level at all. Baltimore, we don't yet know for certain who is playing quarterback, so quarterback questions on both sides stay away from the game. PHILLYOT Dallas. We don't know if Jalen Hurts is playing or not as we record here today. I don't think he's playing, but there is when they're in. I think Minshew's a good backup. But when there is that unknown at quarterback, it's a stay away. And Denver at the Rams, the I think Russ is playing. They're saying he's playing.

Its concussion protocol, though it's also too horrible. Teams that a stay away, like the quarterback questions involving four of these five games, so to me, they're just pure stay aways. Okay, it makes sense, like that's what that category exists, the be careful category. Since he at New England, since he laying only three points, Tampa Bay at Arizona, and the Chargers at Endy, these are be careful for very simple reasons. They are daring you to bet the Bengals. The Patriots

are a mess. They're coming off the worst loss arguably in NFL history. Cincinnati looks like a juggernaut. Right now, why is it only three points? Now? I understand the weather is a factor there, It's a lot of things that could be a factor. The entirety of the general public is going to be on Cincinnati. Be careful, demands that you love Cincinnati this weekend. Yeah, yeah, I know it.

Speaker 2

Yeah. It kind of seems like Vegas is underrating them in my opinion.

Speaker 3

Well I get that, and the last few weeks you'd have been proven correcked. This to me is a trap, and I don't I can't give you any analysis. Of course.

Speaker 2

Listen, the only reason plus three makes sense in New England against Cincinnati is it? Is it in New England? It's in New England?

Speaker 3

Yeah so, but it is to me, this is eighty five percent of the public is going to be on Cincinnati. I can't imagine anyone loving New England getting only three points.

Speaker 4

You're going to be part of the pubblic that's a ten point teaser right there, your teaseer eleven eleven.

Speaker 3

So you lose the line value. You just you just, I mean, just make all these mistakes. You can lead a fit, you know, I will say, you can lead a fish to water. That's not what it is. The horse to the troughy. You can lead a horse to water, you can't make them drink. You can, you know, teacher, you can give a man a fish. You gotta teach and fish something like that. I've let you down, Son.

Speaker 2

I'm sorry.

Speaker 3

Tampa and Arizona. There's the rare game where the public I think is gonna be all over the underdog. It's incomprehensible at this point that Tampa could blow somebody out. But it's trace Mick Sorely starting for the Cardinals. So to me, the public's gonna be all over Arizona plus seven and a half because Tampa's looks so bad. Be careful. Arizona could score zero points. No, legitimately, Arizona might score

zero points. But I'm also not gonna encourage you to go out and lay more than a touchdown with the Bucks who have looked terrible. Just be careful there. And then, lastly, in this category, Chargers at Indy. Indy is getting four and a half. Indy is starting Nick Foles. Here's what I'll tell you.

Speaker 2

I think the.

Speaker 3

Chargers are excellent. I think argers are dangerous. I think the Chargers are gonna win. I also think Nick Foles might be the best quarterback Yeaholis, Yeah, that they've had all year. Honestly, God Alnger was a joke. Matt Ryan is melting in front of us. I think I think that this feels like the all the entire public is going to be on the Chargers. I of course, would never encourage anyone to bet on Jeff Saturday. Four and a half is such a weird number. Be careful here,

I just just be careful. The Chargers absolutely could blow them out. It also could be that Nick Foles is dealing on that beat up Chargers defense. Be careful and then, lastly, perfectly priced will be very quick here. Detroit at Carolina and Washington and San Francisco. Detroit being favored by just about a field goal at Carolina feels right. Detroit is not as dominant on the road as they are at home.

Carolina is no good, however. Carolina on the flip side, though, is they do control their own playoff destiny if they were to win out they go to the postseason. Detroit to me is maybe slightly overvalued by the public right now, but they are red hot. It should be Detroit minus just about three on the road. That's perfectly priced. And Washington at San Francisco. Washington's desperate. San Francisco's the most talented roster in the league. They're at home. They have

a rookie quarterback. You can't favor brock Purty by more than a touchdown against any live team. Washington's a very live team. So I think the line is exactly where I thought it should be. San Francisco favored by a touchdown. That feels to me like a twenty to thirteen game. So there it is. There's our We gave you our five picks. We broke down the other games. We will tell a Demons gambling story. We would find out if we have any teasers. We will give you our right

move of the week. All that's next, What's right? All right? Welcome back in final segment, Episode one oh nine, Week sixteen Gambling Show. Our five picks this week are the Giants plus four, Chicago plus eight and a half, Cleveland minus three, Vegas plus two and a half, and Miami minus four. Our right move this week, which we got correct last week, has not been great over the course of the season, but that's okay, is going to be Chicago getting the eight and a half points. So Chicago

plus eight and a half. The Bills have in the last two and a half months have one win of more than a one score of more than seven or eight points. I don't think they're gonna get their second in what's going to be terrible weather against a bad but frisky Bears team. We like the Bears plus eight and a half. Demonse, you're about to come on camera, go like this, buddy, You got a little fuzz from your shirt in your eyebrow, actually believe it or not.

Now it's on your eyelid, but you're fine. So it's still there. If you want to clean that off the other side of your face, I'm just trying to help you out there you go, still there's still I'm just trying to help you. It's still there right there on the side of your face. And so here's the deal. We don't have an exotic this week. Okay, demonte had an exotic this weekend. There's a ten point teaser, five team ten point teaser, and he lost it because he

had the Cowboys catching five. He teased across zero, didn't get to the key numbers, made all these errors as if I've taught you nothing and lost in a heartbreaking fashion a pick six in overtime to lose by a.

Speaker 2

Point, she just gets tackled. Man, they kicked the field goal. I win.

Speaker 3

I know, and you probably dreamt about it and it kept you up at night. But here's the real problem. Without getting too into Demonday's business, it was not a one unit bet. It was not a two unit bet. It was a twenty unit bet.

Speaker 2

The biggest bet of it.

Speaker 3

It was twenty units. I know what your typical bet size is. I know what that bet was. And now, and as much as I'd love to, I can't live your life for you. But I am telling you this is now a fork in the road moment for you because the problem with making a twenty unit bet, and we've all been there, is it has a long tail that affects you weeks and weeks down the road. And

here's what I mean. Your if you had won it, that would probably in the long run cost you more because that would then be you would trick yourself in saying that's my new typical bet size. You might say you wouldn't, but you would. That's what everyone does. Because the problem is, and this is where even losing it can hurt you. Is Now, if you play this weekend and you go back to your typical bet size, winning will feel like losing. It will be oh, yeah, great, I won.

Speaker 2

Yeah whooped? You do not.

Speaker 3

I only need to win fifteen more of these to get back that one bet, and it's gonna be sitting in the back of your head. There's gonna I'm gonna get even on that. I'm gonna get even on that, and I'm going to find the perfect five team ten point teaser. Here's one other thing, and then I'll let you talk. Demanse got mad at me this weekend briefly when I was trying to talk through what had happened. When I was like, so, what was the bet? I went through it, I'm like, yeah, man, that's a lot

of money on a long shot. Demonte goes long shot. Huh. I'm like, well, it was plus one forty, so if it's plus money, it is something of a long shot. So now the floor is yours with your thoughts.

Speaker 4

I'm gonna do it again, but I'm not gonna do the five hundred thing. What I'm going to do is and I don't think you're a you're not taking into account what my parlays are. First of all, if I hit one of my parlays, then I did make the money back because they're all like fifteen sixteen bucks to win, like four or five whatever.

Speaker 3

Those are very very hard to hit.

Speaker 2

But go ahead.

Speaker 4

So I think, what I'm not gonna I'm not betting this weekend. I'm not betting the next weekend. I'm actually done betting for a little bit of time. But when I do get back to betting, what I'm going to do is I'm going to do that same ten eleven have very many points, users I'm gonna bet one hundred on that, and then I'm gonna do my regular parlays and it's going to be I know, I missed this one, but it was pretty sure fire it by one point.

All right, Cool, I'm gonna do the one hundred to cover me, and I'm still gonna do the same parlays, so I'll lose like one to fifty at the most.

Speaker 3

Okay, I you know, here's the thing. I'd love to say that you know you're grown man. You're on your own on this. Unfortunately, though this does impact me, for it's not your fault. But as you saw, you got a small glimpse of this the other night. Let's just say, your mother is nonplussed with me with you starting the sports bet. And it came up the other day when I messed with your mom about something, and she was like, oh, yeah, well you've got him gambling, so and so.

Speaker 2

All right, so let me let me say this.

Speaker 4

With that little thing, the little last week's or last Sunday's stint.

Speaker 2

I feel like overall I've been pretty respect like.

Speaker 4

I feel like with the five hundred thing, I didn't double down, I didn't try to bet again.

Speaker 3

I was and I'll be honest you, Okay, So now I have to you're right about that, and now I have to admit something to you. So you looked at my bank against Hold on a second, just wait a second here, Just wait a second here. I did not that day. I did not the next day, however, yesterday or the day before yesterday, I don't remember which I had to send you money for. Yeah, because demanse uh paid a bill for me, or paid, I say, paid the lady who comes and cleans our house once a week.

I was gone and I hadn't paid her. So I asked demanse to go to the ATM and get money and to give her extra money because it was Christmas. So I had to log into the online banking to transfer you that money back because I didn't want to forget. And I will admit when I was there scrolling through the transit, I didn't even scroll. Here's the thing. I don't know if this is better or worse. I didn't scroll through your transactions because I felt that would have

been too invasive. What I did do searched, Yes, exactly right, that is exact, and I'm gonna tell you I saw something moderately. I was here's the thing. I typed in Fate and I searched, and I saw every every FanDuel thing. Then I typed in all the other betting apps and I saw, okay, we're in the clear. What I didn't see was that on FanDuel in particular, that they've ever sent you money. So that was a little disappointing though, because because I.

Speaker 4

Could actually find that for you if I've cashed out, okay, so you d me twice, but I've never cashed on like a huge amount I cashed out the time I've cashed out twice. Every okay, the time after the Lions game, that little parlay that okay, you.

Speaker 3

Did cash that out. Okay, so maybe it just didn't show up on that so you have cashed out something definitely okay. All right, well then in that case you are right that you have not been Yeah. That was total deposits to FanDuel over the course of the season is about one thousand bucks. Half of that being made at two in the morning Sunday morning for a five team ten point parlay is not or ten point teaser

is not ideal bank roll management. But but I was relieved and thrilled because I knew you told me how much the bet was for, right, so I knew it was that. I was legit nervous that I was gonna see an instant another deposit, like.

Speaker 2

Oh boy, no, we're not making the dream come.

Speaker 3

Try Okay, all right, you know what, Okay, then you're fine. So demonte By the way, this week only has one pick. I think your one pick that you love is Tennessee minus three with Malik.

Speaker 2

Willis no what I'm going to start.

Speaker 4

I'm doing the teasers, I'm doing the having any points you No, No, I won't. I'm not saying that I'm gonna bet it on. I understand, but it's going to be my imaginary You know, all.

Speaker 3

Listen, since we're not doing an exotic this week, I just because it applies to you, and then we'll move on. The show's gone too long. That just reminder America. With teasers, you want to avoid teasing across zero because you're giving up a point there because the game essentially never lands on zero. That's first point. Second point. You want to make sure, depending on your betting outfit that you use,

do pushes reduce the teaser or do pushes lose? So on some ten point teasers, you tease it and say games of pick them, and you tease it up to plus ten. If that team loses by ten, it doesn't just reduce, meaning go from a five team teaser to a four team teaser like it would with You're Out. You gotta check that. And you want to make sure you're teasing across key numbers. You want to get actual value in what you're teasing, and you want to consider

teasing underdogs. Everyone thinks of teasing. Oh I'm gonna tease a seven point favorite down to a pick them, so be it. But you also have to consider teasing a two and a half point underdog up to nine and a half. So you get it through the three, the six, the seven, the eight. Those are things if you're gonna do teasers, and let's not do teasers of more than three teams America. These five team teasers are hard. You

need to be correct on five separate events. One other note that I don't really encourage, but I will ad for you, but for the audience. Also, keep in mind with teasers, you're allowed to tease the total. I don't do that, but you are allowed to tease. Like right now, that that game that we said at a thirty two and a half point total, you theoretically whatever, if you theoretically could tease it to over twenty two and a half points, you know what I mean. You could move

the total ten points if you wanted to. But I don't encourage that. All right, what's the offer this week?

Speaker 4

This week's offer is called the Saint Nick because it'd be your ultimate Christmas present. So first off, we got Luca and Lebron to go over their points on Christmas or their point totals on Christmas, and.

Speaker 2

JAG's money line against the Jets.

Speaker 4

You love that Chie used to cover minus ten versus Seattle, Seattle, and this is a plus twelve ninety.

Speaker 2

Okay.

Speaker 3

Luca and Lebron both go over their point props the Jags money line, which will have already happened by the time people hear this because it's Thursday night game again City minus ten and plus thirteen hundred.

Speaker 2

Yeah, what go ahead.

Speaker 4

I think JAG's money line is cool. Luca and Lebron going over their point total on Christmas, the Chiefs covering the minus ten a little sketch.

Speaker 3

Well, that's why it's thirteen to one. It's a long shot. Let's put twenty units on it. I'll take that offer. Let's do it. Start it off tonight. I take that offer. There it is, and I'll make that actual bet. Uh. And you can have five percent of it. So you can have five percent of it so we can root for all that together. All right, good show. We'll talk to you guys Monday. What's right,

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