Week 10 NFL Bets: Nick’s 5 Picks - podcast episode cover

Week 10 NFL Bets: Nick’s 5 Picks

Nov 11, 202240 minEp. 98
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Episode description

Nick is heating up! The curse has officially been broken and Nick is on a roll, coming off of his second straight winning week. He talks through this week’s slate with Damonza while making an interesting decision to take a side in Jeff Saturday’s first-ever game as a head coach, while staying away from The Prince That Wasn’t Profitable in Arrowhead!

2:13 - What Went Wright

5:20 - Nick's Picks

5:22 - TEN vs DEN

8:22 - CHI vs DET

10:55 - LV vs IND

14:54 - LAC @ SF

16:42 - WAS @ PHI

19:56 - B Block Starts

20:43 - Stay Aways

25:02 - Be Careful

28:58 - Perfectly Priced

32:13 - Wright Move

36:47 - The Offer

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Transcript

Speaker 1

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Speaker 2

Welcome in episode ninety four, What's Right with Nick Wright, our Week ten NFL gambling show, and a lot of things going on right now. One is this is going to be at this show today is going to be a test of Demanse's ability to lock in and focus, because he is livid right now Cuz after I gave him a hard time a few weeks ago about not having his AirPods, he double checked to make sure he had them on the ride to the studio, and now fears he left them in the ride to the studio.

And there is nothing in the world that frustrates my son more than that type of mistake. He is right now on a if he walked out of this studio and got hit by a car, he would not be as frustrated as he is this very moment. And then you add to it the layer of and then we'll

talk about the good things going on. You add to the layer of Demonse learned a new gambling lesson last week, which it didn't end up even costing him his bets because after hitting a five team parlay two weeks ago, last week flew a little too close to the sun. Tried some six and seven teamers didn't work, But the first leg to lose of any of those was the Oh, let me just throw row the Bill's money line on there.

If this thing's gonna pay ten dollars to win three ten, why not make it ten to win three forty free money. It's not like the Bills can lose the old huge favorite add them on the money line. We ca call that the cousin sALS special. It's what my cousin Sala is known for. So we dealt with that gambling loss. He's now figuring out it does this uber driver have my AirPods or is it somewhere in this here. So there's a lot going on so you know the yin and the yang, if you will, A little rough ninety

six hours for the wonderful demons. I, on the other hand, am flying higher than a kite. Last week show the record three one and one after we were in the depths back to back winning weeks, we are now six three and one the last two weeks. Really should be seven to in one the last two weeks, but I got talked out of a good Bengals pick and instead got a bad Vikings pick, or the other way around. Whatever it was two weeks ago. Last week, the Colts

plus five and a half against the Patriots. You know what I'm gonna say, I wasn't on the wrong side of that. Let me now. They got annihilated and then they fired their coach and the iied Jeff Saturday, and the whole thing's an embarrassment. My argument there was, I don't see how the Patriots can crack seventeen points. The Patriots kicked four field goals and scored two touchdowns. Here's how they scored their touchdowns, a pick six and a blocked punt that was returned to the two yard line.

Their offense did nothing. Atlanta plus three against the Chargers. That's a push that it was stolen from me, the fact that the Chargers pushed that when Atlanta had the ball running up field after a Charger fumbled and then the guy just fundled. Yeah, the ball out of his own hands. Seattle plus two, never a doubt. Baltimore minus two and a half, Never a doubt. And for the second straight week, our lock of the week on national television comes down to the wire and we cover by

a half point. Oh my goodness, Green Bay plus ten and a half, followed by Tampa minus two and a half. So we're feeling great. We go four and one this week, and we are above five hundred for the season, but we would be at five hundred by and let you guys make me switch my pick a week ago. But it doesn't matter. We are feeling great. We love this slate, love the slate, and as promised, we're hitting our stride for the stretch run of the year. The goal is

on the season to be at fifty eight percent. That would be highly profitable, and then the goal is in the playoffs to be great, So to be at fifty eight percent. Let me do some very quick math here before we get to today's picks. So we're doing five a week. Five times eighteen is ninety, so zero point five eight times ninety we would need fifty two wins. We would need to go fifty two and thirty eight

on the season. We are right now twenty one, twenty three and one on the season, so we've got to go. It's gonna be hard. We gotta go essentially thirty. Oh boy, that's good, we gotta go. Let's just try to go thirty and fifteen, thirty and fifteen the rest of the way. Six has sixty seven percent. We can do it four and one weeks, three and two weeks, maybe mix in a five and oh week. I feel this week right here doesn't feel like a five and oh week, but it sure as hell feels like a four and one week.

Let's show this. Let's show our first pick. Tennessee minus two and a half at home against Denver. Now, there is some questions about Ryan Tannahill's health. We are recording this on Thursday. We don't yet have the Thursday injury report. However, here is what is going into my pick here. Ryan Tannehill briefly kind of warmed up against the Chiefs game against the Chiefs in that game. That's a good sign. He was not a did not participate in practice. He

was a limited participant in practice on Wednesday. So it's trending in the right direction. So if Tannehill, I believe is likely to play, even if it's limited, what on earth would make anyone think the Titans should not be at least four point favorites against Denver. Denver's been awful. I know they're coming off a win in London and then they got the buye. I get that. Tennessee. On

the other hand, Derrick Henry has been unstoppable. The biggest mistake they made in that Chiefs game was not giving him the ball. More Malik Willis will either have at least some experience if he is starting, and they'll have more experience figuring out what he can and can't do, or more likely Ryan Tannehills there more importantly, you know exactly what Denver is going to try to do offensively, which is nothing, and then take some deep shots with Russ.

That Titans defense, what did it show against the Chiefs? Gave up a ton of yards, but was really good against the Chiefs. And if not for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs got no huge plays and not for Patrick Mahomes with his legs, the Chiefs lose that game. Well, Russell Wilson won't run. Biggest plays of the game third and seventeen. Mahomes scrambled third and nine at near the in the red zone. Mahomes scrambled for a touchdown, two

point conversion. Mahomes scrambled for that. Russ is not doing that. The Titans are a good team. They're at home. Denver's a bad team. They're on the road. Were laying less than a field goal. We love Tennessee minus two and a half.

Speaker 3

I think you and other people might be a little bit too high on them because of how they held up against the Chiefs.

Speaker 2

But it's not just the Chiefs. It's that the previous week against the Texans with no quarterback, with Malik Willis making his first career start, they were up seventeen to three. I know you're like, oh, that's the Texans. The Broncos are not markedly better than the Texans the previous to They're just not previous to that. They beat Indy by two scores, they beat Washington, they beat Indy again, they beat Vegas, now, they're not winning these games by big margins.

I don't think they're a dominant team. And at three and a half, I might have pause. Tennessee minus two and a half. Tennessee wins by a field goal. We love it. Next, right, Chicago minus two and a half against Detroit. Okay, so let's talk about the line for a moment, because right now we feel like they're a touch over valued. Here's why we feel like they're a touch overvalued. And is this the game? I hope we have the graphics for it that I was supposed to

go to Chicago. There is Chicago minus two and a half against Detroit. Detroit going into that Packer game, was on pace to be the worst defense in the history of the NFL. Points wise, give up more points than any team ever in the history of the NFL. In that Packer game, it's like, oh, the defense turned a corner, did it? Aaron Rodgers at the one yard line through the ball into a defensive lineman's helmet. Aaron Rodgers was then again at the one yard line through an interception

on a pass to a left tackle. Aaron Rodgers was then again inside the twenty five through an interception at the goal line once again. They then at the end of the game drove into the red zone and Rodgers missed the pass. So while the Packers were not able to do anything offensively from a points per ppecse, they were able to move the football. And then you have Chicago. Justin Fields now that he is being allowed to run, is one of the most dynamic, threatening players in the

entire league. Now he has weaknesses and the Bears defense they trade away Roquan Smith, they trade away, oh, the Robert Quinn. So there are some issues with them defensively. I don't know that Detroit can take advantage of those issues right now that offense has come back down to earth Detroit. They You have two teams that feel very differently about their losses last week. Chicago feels great about its loss. Chicago feels like the refs screwed him at

the end. They hung thirty some points on Miami. They finally have an identity on offense. And Detroit didn't lose last week. I misspoke. Chicago feels about their loss motivated Detroit. I wonder with that win against Green Bay, I don't want.

Speaker 3

To say anything better than they are.

Speaker 2

Well, it may be a little satisfied. What I know is this a at less than a field goal in Soldier in Soldier Field, when Detroit's offense has been a team that is only dominant when it's at home. I really like Chicago. I like justin fields here Chicago minus two and a half? All right, one more favorite. Then we've got a couple underdog picks. So this to me is a must bet. I understand the Raiders are an embarrassment.

I understand they have a worse time holding leads than any team I can remember, and laying six points feels like a lot. However, they are playing a team in the Indianapolis Colts, that fired their play caller and then had the worst offensive performance of any team in football all year last week aginst the Patriots. They then fired Frank Reich and hired a guy who's never been a co at any level but high school out of the

ESPN studios in Jeff Saturday. If you are so, I expect, and they promoted to play callers some thirty year old, right, So I expect a number of things from the Colts. One is for the offense. With Sam Ellinger, a sixth round, second year player at quarterback, with nobody left on the offensive staff coming off an impossibly bad performance, I expect the offense to be disjointed, disorganized. That's from the offensive side,

from the team as a whole. I expect there to be veterans in that locker room that feel insulted and betrayed by the fact that this team has benched Matt Ryan. Now, he wasn't playing well, but he gives you a better chance to win. Sam Ellinger fired the coach and then brought in this guy. And I think there are going to be guys that have checked out on this season. The Raiders, on the other hand, Josh McDaniels does not

want to be one and done. And the Raiders also, three times this year in losses, have been up seventeen points, set up, been up three scores in games they have ultimately lost. Now that's pathetic by them, but it also means they can move the football their wins they have so the Raiders this year. We're up seventeen on Arizona and lost beat Denver by two scores. We're up seventeen on Kansas City and lost beat Houston by three scorers.

We're up seventeen on Jacksonville, the prince that was promised. You guys wouldn't let me bet him. I'm very upset with you guys about that, and lost.

Speaker 3

I mean what I mean, then you end up still betting on them.

Speaker 2

That was a couple of weeks ago. Two weeks ago, and so the Raiders are gonna move the football the Colts. The question to me is very simple, go ahead.

Speaker 3

Are we sure that Jeff Saturday isn't a worst coach than Josh McDaniels.

Speaker 2

Are we sure that he is a worst coach? Yes, I'm sure just out of life Josh McDaniel's not good. But out of principle, this is an opportunity. There are certain opportunities come along. There are no sure things in gambling. I understand that, But I don't know that the Cults are going to be underdogs of less than a touchdown again the rest of the year. If they play Houston again,

maybe sure. But the being able to bet against whatever the hell they're doing in Indie and not having to lay a full touchdown is an opportunity we must take. And the real question is do you think the Raiders are getting to seventeen? If the answer is yes, then they cover because the Cultu are not breaking ten. The Cultu are not breaking ten. The Raiders, I believe, are going to blow them out. So I will lay the full six points in Vegas with the Raiders.

Speaker 3

What's up, Chef Saturday, We're in here. He'd be real fire right now.

Speaker 2

Oh yeah, listen, he gives a good press conference. The guy's a media professional. I can't well. We talked more on Thursday's pod about that higher so I don't want to spend time on it here. But Vegas minus six, all right, now, a couple of dogs. The Chargers getting a full seven in San Francisco against the Niners. Now, the injury report discrepancies here is concerning. The Chargers are

super banged up. The Niners are getting healthy, however, and the Chargers not being able to defend the run for a couple of years. The Niners are just gonna want to run the football. I understand all of them. With that said, the Chargers are sneaky alive for the AFC West. Still, they have five wins, the Chiefs have six. The Chargers escaped with the victory last week. They're not going to roll over, and the Chargers know that in the AFC. They're not gonna win the AFC West. So for the AFC,

what final the wild card spots? You're going to have the Dolphins, the Jets, the Bengals, and the Chargers. Those four teams fighting with only one spot available. Those four teams fighting, I'm sorry, with only three spots available. One of those teams is what I'm trying to say, is not going to make It is a critically important game. I do not think they win out right, but I do think that this is a game they could win

out right. They have the better quarterback by far, and I expect it to be close and worst case scenario of the Niners being up big, the Chargers have the firepower and the offense even with the injuries where they can backdoor cover. Seven is too many points. This is not a game we're gonna tease. This is not this is a stay away on the teaser stuff. But the Charge getting a full seven in San Francisco, it's too

many points. It should be San Francisco minus six, san Francisco minus five and a half, the full sevens two attractives pass up. We're jumping on it. Speaking of too many points, final game of the weekend that we're picking Washington plus eleven against Philly. Washington is frisky with Taylor Heinek. Philly has not been They've not trailed in the second half this year. It's pretty amazing. This is a divisional game, it's national television. These types of games are not blowouts.

And Washington again, the full eleven is like the ten and a half with green Bay, where even a game like green Bay Buffalo that is a blowout, you're still almost always just one touchdown drive away from covering. I don't think Washington can win, but I also think Washington is looking at it like we are absolutely alive for the playoffs. I don't view them as alive for the playoffs, but from a record.

Speaker 3

Perspective, undefeated team, well, they got nothing to lose.

Speaker 2

I mean everyone is going to get Philly is gonna get everyone's best shot. It's a divisional game. It's too many points. It's the only significant favorite of the weekend. That's the other part of this that to me is just wild, is that there are now that and we'll talk more about it later. Now that there's questions about Josh Allen's availability, Buffalo is not a big favorite. The Chiefs are a near double digit favorite, and the only

other big favorite is Philly. It's too many points for a divisional matchup for a team that's not a terrible team. Washington plus eleven. So our five picks this week where he got two favorites of less than a field goal at home Tennessee minus two and a half in Chicago, minus two and a half against two awful teams Denver in Detroit. We have one favorite of nearly a touchdown but less than a touchdown against a team that clearly wants to tank and is in total upheaval and Indy.

And then we're grabbing the points with the Chargers plus a full seven against I'm getting seven points and I have the better quarterback. I like that. And then Washington, it's just too many points. Way it should be a nine and a half point line. It's an eleven point line. Washington plus eleven. By the way, someone sent me the clip the last time I did this about a nationally televised game where a team was just getting too many points, the Bills Packers game. Someone sent me the clip. I

nailed it to the number. Like I said, there's absolutely a scenario where this thing ends twenty seven seventeen with Green Bay back door covering, and it ended twenty seven to seventeen. Now, those bets you haven't yet experienced, and you're not gonna believe the odds on them because they're almost impossible to win.

Speaker 3

Oh, the guessing final score, the exact score.

Speaker 2

Bets that pay like one hundred to one is two hundred to one. Those seam right up your alley. So there's our five picks for the week. We got another dozen games to go through. We'll put them in our four categories, Stay away, be careful, and perfectly priced. That's next, What's right.

Speaker 4

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Speaker 2

All right, welcome back in What's right, Nick? Right, we just gave you our five picks this week. Tennessee minus too af, Chicago minus two and a half, Vegas minus six, Chargers plus seven, and Washington plus eleven. There's you guys will have already seen Thursday Night Football. I was kind of upset last week because Thursday Night Football last week I nailed. But we don't do those picks anymore because

people have already seen the game. But Thursday Night last week, I said on the show, I just thought it was too many points with the Eagles against the Texans, and I think it was ended up going off at thirteen and a half. The Texans lost by twelve. This week, the game that will have already been played is Atlanta laying two and a half at the Panthers. I would like Atlanta here, but we're not. We're not doing anything on that game, but just to get on the record,

I would like Atlanta here. All right, stay aways three games Seattle and Tampa, Minnesota and Buffalo and Arizona and the Rams, and I'll explain why those are our three stay away games in order. Right now, Seattle is getting two and a half points against Tampa in Germany. You you want me to pick Seattle, correct Demanse? Yeah?

Speaker 3

As always you like.

Speaker 2

Seattle here, Yeah, I understand that. Why am I staying away from this game because of the flight? Because of the flight? I know you're laughing. Okay. This is a good reminder for all our friends out there that bet these games. You don't have to bet every game. Why would you want to bet the first game ever played in Germany? We don't know what the impact. We literally have no proof of concept, no history to lean on, nothing.

Speaker 3

So we're trusting Taylor Heineke in primetime, but not Seattle Seahawks because of their long flight.

Speaker 2

What I am saying is that there is so much unknowns. We have never seen an NFL team have to play a game having traveled this far. It's the furthest any team has traveled in the history of professional football to play a football game, Seattle to Germany. Why would I bet it? Now? You might say, well, in that case, why aren't you just betting Tampa? Because I don't know. Maybe it won't affect him at all. That is why we have the stay away category. Total unknown about the

impact of the flight. We are staying away from it. It also feels like they are daring you to pick Seattle. That's almost why I put in the be careful category that Seattle is getting points against the Tampa team that's looked like a mess all year. All right, next one, Minnesota Buffalo. This game started Buffalo eight and a half, alright, that in the look aheadline. It Then after the Bills lost to the Jets, went to seven and a half. Then Josh Allen's injury news came out. It dropped a

four and a half. Now it's three and a half. This if comes Sunday Josh Allen is ruled out, I would obviously immediately bet Minnesota. I think it might move all the way to a pick them in that circumstance. But the Bills can't run the football, their defense is banged up. But because there is a real question about the health of the Bill's most important offensive player by a mile, you can't. I can't handicap this. If Josh Allen plays Buffalo minus three and the line will move again.

But right now, if you knew what Josh Allen's playing status is, you could get three points of value in either direction. If Josh Allen's playing, it should be bills minus seven. If he's not playing, it should be a pick him. We don't know, so we're staying away and the exact the go ahead.

Speaker 3

So am I crazy for thinking the seven to one Vikings aren't a bad pick even if Josh Allen does play.

Speaker 2

Well, they are a bad pick at plus three and a half if Allan plays, because you could have gotten it seven and a half on Monday morning, So you just you can't give up four points a line value. The if you like the Vikings even if Allen plays, then you wait until Sunday.

Speaker 3

I lost the Jets with Josh.

Speaker 2

Yeah, I understand, But my point is this, if you think the Vikings can cover even if Allen plays, then wait till it's announced that he's playing and get the extra points. Yeah, you know, or even if you want to beat him on the money line, get the extra value. Like it's just too early and that by the will be very quick. On Arizona, the Rams neither quarterback practice yesterday. The stafford's in concussion protocol out of nowhere, so he's

probably not gonna play. They had to walk through yesterday. In Arizona, Kyler was a non participant in the walk through where they said he wouldn't have been a participant in practice. Now, didn't a new call of duty come out?

Speaker 1

Yes?

Speaker 3

Date, Yeah, there was an update.

Speaker 2

This is we don't know who's playing quarterback for either team. We're staying away. It's very simple. I'm not going to spend time handicapping that we don't know I was playing quarterback, all right, Be careful Jags at the Chiefs, Houston, at the Giants in Cleveland, at Miami. So we're being careful on Jags at Chiefs. What you look skeptical on?

Speaker 3

I mean, it's the Jags and the Chiefs. How do you not bet a single side there? It's the prince that was promising your boy, Patrick Mahomes.

Speaker 2

Okay, so one of my flaws with gambling is I won't bet against the Chiefs. I'll either bet on them or stay away. Okay, obviously, you know the prince that was promised ketchup. That'd be a double negative. That almost ten points would be fun. You guys have banned me from betting the Jaguars. However, here's why I'm saying, be careful. Everybody thinks the Jags think the Chiefs are coming off a game where Mahomes was great, but the offense wasn't explosive.

The whole world's gonna lay the nine and a half. The Chiefs have not been a great team on spreads more than a touchdown. They're great at covering medium spreads, big spreads, they have not been great at that. They their blowouts have come against teams they had, you know, Arizona minus five, Tampa minus three. When they are expected in Tennessee, they're by fourteen. Damnar lost the game. Yeah,

So to me, it is a state. It is a be careful because they're daring you to bet the Chiefs because you don't have to lay the full ten And the next two are vintage be carefuls. Houston getting only four and a half, the Giants having to lay even six, the Giants coming off a buye having to lay not even six, a six and two team against a team many people believe is the worst team in football. I am telling you right now, everyone is gonna be on Houston.

Speaker 3

Well, the Giants gonna start getting some respect. Man, This is like one of the worst teams in the league right now. And the yeah yeah, yeah yeah.

Speaker 2

So here's the thing, You're fine. Uh. I think the Giants are a good team with a bad quarterback, But this I would feel better about betting the Giants. Sounds dumb, but this is why we created Be Careful. I would feel better about betting the Giants minus six than minus four and a half. Minus four and a half seems like such a trap. It feels like Vegas is begging you to bet the Giants. The exact same thing with this next game, Cleveland at Miami. So Miami's undefeated with Tua,

the offense scores thirty points at will. Cleveland's offense, aside from Nick Chubb, can do nothing. It's in Miami and it's only three and a half. Do you is there gonna be any what percent of the gambling public is gonna be on the Giants and gonna be on Miami seventy five percent? Eighty percent? Anyone feel great about betting Jacoby Brissett versus that offense and you're only getting three

and a half points. The answer is no. So all three of those games, particularly the Giants in Miami, Vegas is daring you or begging you to bet the favor. That's why we created Be carefuls and again, we would have a better record this year if the be careful category. We simply had the courage to take the other side, to take Cleveland plus three and a half, to take Houston plus four and a half. We don't have that much courage. But I know a trap line when I

see one. Everyone felt like it should have been Giants minus six, and that it should be Miami minus seven. The fact that it's Giants minus four and a half Miami minus three and a half, to me, it's not value. It's a trap. We're staying away. And then the last two perfectly priced. One I don't care about it, and the others actually pretty interesting, but I think they priced it just right. New Orleans at Pittsburgh's the one I don't care about at all, Pittsburgh getting a point and

a half. We'll see if what TJ. Watt's status is. New Orleans stinks both these offensive stink is gonna be a terrible No one's gonna watch this game. I don't want to spend any more time on it. I don't even know it's perfectly priced. I just know I didn't want to spend the time handicapping it. I'm out on that game. No interest in watching it or gambling on. Is there anything you want to say?

Speaker 3

Mike Tomlin has covered eighty three percent of his games as a home underdog. Andy Dalton is the road dog favorite.

Speaker 2

Pittsburgh is off the by. You're missing on this one, all right? This is the second time you've given me Mike Tomlin news that I didn't know about. Yeah, that is fascinating. He's covered eighty three percent of his name great coach dog, eighty three percent of big number. I might you know what?

Speaker 3

I think that also happens to be the best in NFL history.

Speaker 2

Wow, I might be missing on this one. I maybe should include Pittsburgh. You know what I told you. I didn't want to handicap it. I didn't investigate it. I just threw them perfectly priced because I wanted to move on from it, and I wanted to talk Dallas green Bay. But that's a fun fact. So Dallas at green Bay. The reason I think this is perfectly priced is you can't make Green Bay a full touchdown underdog at home

when they are desperate. With that said, I don't see how Green Bay is going to be able to move the football against that Dallas defense. So I feel like four would be too little. I feel like seven would be too much. Five or six is just right. I think they vegas. I expect this to be a twenty one seventeen, twenty one fourteen type of game that Dallas wins twenty four to seventeen, twenty four to twenty right in there in that you know, four, five, six, seven

point range. So I think five is the right number.

Speaker 3

So you see Rodgers losing six in a row evening.

Speaker 2

Absolutely, I think the Packers stink, and I think Rogers might be cooked. We talked about that on Thursday show. So there it is. So we've got our three category stay away from Seattle, Tampa, Minnesota, Buffalo and Arizona and the Rams be careful laying the nine and a half with the Chiefs, the four and a half with the Giants, with the three and a half with Miami, and perfectly priced.

Maybe I missed on Pittsburgh. It sounds like Demanse and our producers had some good Pittsburgh numbers and Dallas Green Bay. Everyone's gonna watch it. You don't need to gamble on it. All right. We are red hot on these locks. I can't remember the last time we didn't get a lock right, We'll give you our lock. We'll see Demanse unfortunately not red hot on his picks. We'll see if he has picks.

We'll update you on the half a million dollar Survivor pool I'm in because we have a call it interesting update. We'll do all that. All that's as we wrap up episode ninety four of the Week ten Gambling Show on What's Right? All right? Final segment, quick segment here recapping our picks and giving you a lock of the week and update on Survivor. So our picks this week Tennessee minus two and a half, Chicago minus two and a half, Vegas minus six, Chargers plus seven, Washington plus eleven. Now,

I know what the right move is gonna be. I know what our lock of the week is gonna be. But of those demands, do you have one that jumps out to you? Is there one that you think should be the right move of our five picks this week? You steered me right a couple of weeks ago. So I'll listen to you. I know what I'm going with. Actually, I won't be listening to you. I just want to see if one of them jumps out to you. Is there one I need an answer? Chicago. That's what I

was going with. Oh, Demonse's really sad about his AirPods right now. He's very disappointed. He's gonna rally Chicago minus two and a half against Detroit. That was gonna be the right move. That is the right move. You know what, I can't believe we're locking up Chicago. But the other thing that Justin Field's emergence has done, it is a little mayhem with my planned out Survivor picks. Because my plan was to fade Chicago as much as possible. You have to switch that in Survivor to fading Indy as

much as possible. Amazingly, However, I don't have the Raiders available this week because the Raiders, even though they only have two wins and I'm still alive in Survivor, I already used them. So Indy, they do play Philadelphia next week. That feels like pretty good Survivor pick if you still have Philly available. They played Dallas in a few weeks, and Indy's gonna be an absolute mess. Speaking of Survivor,

it's now down to one hundred and twelve people. It would have been down to eighty exactly if the Chiefs had lost, I did not have the Chiefs. If you want to know how narrow deep my Chiefs loyalty goes, it's half a million dollars to win this Survivor pool, I would have knocked out thirty percent of the field down to eighty people. Now you're talking with a real chance, and I was still pulling for the Chiefs with all my heart. I'll win Survivor without it. I don't need

those thirty two knockout. This week's an interesting survivor week in the pool I'm in, though only twelve people have Philadelphia available, so one hundred people and only like forty of the Chiefs available, so half the pool is going to have to go with non Chiefs, non Eagles. I think a lot of people were planning on or are planning on, going with the giants. I think it's an interesting survivor week. And in a few weeks in my pool,

you have back to back double pick weeks. So I think I'm not saying who I'm going with because people watch and they're trying to win my money. But I'm feeling good. I think by I think next week and we talk, there's going to potentially be less than seventy people left in this Survivor pool. Exotics this week don't have one. My apologies, I went through it. There's no great teaser. There is one teaser leg that I love,

but I can't find anyone to pair it with. The teaser leg that I love is Tease, a seven point teaser on the Chiefs, teasing the Chiefs down to minus two and a half just to win by at least a field goal. But what are we pairing it with?

I kind of would like to pair it with Houston, but there's no value there going from five and a half Philly twelve and a half the a Philly if it were ten or less, yes, but if you're gonna do a seven point teaser on a favorite, you want to be able to get it through at least through

the four and really through the three. And Philly is an eleven point favorite, so just get you to So there's no great The most the teaser legs that would make the most sense would be teasing Denver from to and a half up to eight and a half or nine and a half green Bay Green Bay. I again, five point teams. You don't really you're not gonna get as much value there, and I do think this scenario where green Bay gets gets blown out. So no teaser for us this week. To give you my apologies, I'd

love you if I could demanday. Last week went two and three. Unfortunately he's gonna rally back this week. I don't even know. Do you have picks you want to give out or staying away from it? Just the offer?

Speaker 3

Yeah, I'm saving myself the embarrassment.

Speaker 2

Okay, listen, it happens. Two and three is not terrible. I had four straight weeks to two and three. I get paid a lot of money for this. It's no problem either The seventeen teaser or parlay was a little ambitious. I gotta be honest with it was a touch ambitious. All right? What's the offer? All right?

Speaker 3

The offer this week is called daz on gembat okay means the offer in German.

Speaker 2

Oh oh, how about that? Look at that picture? Yeah German? Pretzel a German? I love it? All right, go ahead my profile pic.

Speaker 3

Sure we are parlaying Seattle plus two and a half in Germany.

Speaker 2

Franz Wagner. Wagner is how you pronounce it, Wagner?

Speaker 3

Yes, to win the most improved player in Germany to win the World Cup. The odds come out to plus two hundred and five thousand, four hundred and thirty five.

Speaker 2

And then they're saying off winder shine, which I assume means good luck. I'm not certain off winter shine. I'm not taking that off. No, I'm not betting on Franz Wagner win most improved player. I'm not betting on Germany to win the World Cup. And I'm not tying up money until May when they will announce most of the player. I'm not giving giving a betting service, my money interest free for them to hold. So see it. One leg of it is going to be done this weekend. It wins,

we don't know if we've won the bet. I do appreciate the thrill. You know what, are the most improved player? You know what I'm I'm not spending time on this. Germany's on my pick to win the World Cup. I don't like rooting for Germany. I every year in the World Cup I root for Brazil because I don't think they are the favorites. I don't think they're gonna win this year. They just play such a fun style of football. We'll talk more World Cup on the actual gambling on

the actual show. Next week. That's Today's Gambling Show, episode ninety four. Good luck this weekend. Hope you win your butt bets. Talk to you on Monday. What's right that's not?

Speaker 3

Germany

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