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Welcome in episode sixty seven of What Try Nick Wright in the podcast and a special edition because it is our first official gambling show. We did a gambling show already. I understand we did this season stuff, but this is the one where we're going to be keeping score all year. We're gonna have weekly standings. Here's how it's gonna work.
Let me just tell you guys a little bit about about my process, the process that has led me to in the last three years not only have two winning seasons, one season where documented sixty one and a half percent against the spread about as good as you're gonna find anywhere in the country. One year where I was fifty six and a half percent against the spread. That's profitable, and one year where I lost my ass. But it
doesn't matter. Process is this. You look at the whole slate of games and we put them all into four buckets. One bucket it's perfectly priced. What does that mean? Means I look at the line and say, they got that exactly right? So why would I bet that one? It means just coin flip means the market got it. One bucket, the stay away bucket. What is a stay away bucket? That's the weather could be a fact that you know
what I mean is too much of a factor. They're starting an unknown player at a key position, and there's too much A coach just got fired. There's something that makes me say, ah, don't want to put my money on that. Another bucket, the be careful bucket. Okay, that's the Oh my goodness, this line looks too good to be true. That's the you see the tweet. Eighty two percent of bets have been on this side. Be careful America.
There's no free money. And once you've you know, separated the week from the chaff, as they say, I think that's what they say. What you're left off with is the games you want to pick. And I forced myself sometimes there's not five games I love. I'm gonna be honest. This week only love four. But each week we're gonna do five. We're gonna do five games we're gonna give you we're gonna keep. And oh also should be known, we get our line. We're gonna record these so higher
degree of difficulty. We're gonna record these Thursday mornings. It's gonna come out Friday. We are going to take the Fox Bet lines and we are going to freeze them Wednesday evening when the Super Contest lines freeze. We're gonna do that all year, and those lines we're gonna be
working from now. There's gonna be a point in the season where we get screwed on a game where a quarterback's a late scratch, and we're just gonna have to eat it, because there also might be a point in the season where a quarterback of the team we picked against is a late scratch. It's gonna be late. So the best way to bet games is to do it Sunday morning, right before kick or Monday night right when the lines drop before the lines change. If you think
you have some good info, we're gonna crush this. So that's how it's gonna work. Those are and by the way, what we're gonna do for this show, and there won't be such a preamble in the show's coming forward. In our first segment of the show, we're gonna tell you the games were picking, the five games were actually betting, and I'm gonna put real money on these games. The games I tell you that I'm gonna bet. I'm not gonna tell you guys do it and not do it myself.
But we're not gonna tell you which side we're betting until the second segment. And then in that first segment, we're gonna go through all the other eleven games of the weekend and why we're staying away from them, why we're not betting them. So, without further ado, here are the five games that we will be picking, and we'll tell you which side we're picking.
Shortly.
The five games that we are picking is Buffalo at the Rams, Cleveland at Carolina, Jacksonville at Washington, Baltimore, and the Jets New England at Miami. That's why gambling is so great. These are some of the worst games on the schedule. Jacksonville at Washington, Cleveland at Carolina, Baltimore the Jets. Oh, but we're betting them. Okay, So those are the games we're picking. All right, demon's eight. Let's start with the be careful category. What's our first game? And the be
carefater starting. No, let's start with the stay away category. What's our first game? In the stay away bucket?
First game is Pittsburgh at Cincinnati. Bengals are favored by six and a half.
All right, here's why we're staying away from this one. Neither side of this bet do I feel good about? Do I really want to bet on Mitch Trubisky at any point in my life, much less Week one of an NFL season? Of course I don't. But do I want to lay nearly a full touchdown against Mike Tomlin TJ Watt when the Bengals have the potential for a Super Bowl hangover. I know they've upgraded the offensive line,
but it's still a point of weakness. If anything, I would expect the Bengals to try to just escape with a victory and not put Joe Burrow in harm's way week one, So I just it's just a stay away. It's I would lean lean Pittsburgh, but I also would kind of want to tease them. It's a stay away. I would want to tease the Bengals. I would lean Pittsburgh, stay away, not betting it. What's the next one?
We got San Francisco at Chicago. Chicago's seven point underdogs.
Okay, this is a stay away because the two quarterbacks are such unknowns. Now. I know Fields played some last year and Lance got a little bit of time last year. And I'm very high on San Francisco, right like you?
Yeah, I mean you bet the Niners to win the Super Bowl, to get to the Super get to the Super Bowl.
I don't think they can beat them by a Touchdow I think they can, however.
Okay, is this one of those unknown factored type of things.
It's also.
Seven point home underdog. There are nine home underdogs in Week one. You don't you don't in the NFL want to bet all a road favorite unless you're immensely confident. I'm very confident what San Francisco is going to be at the end of the year. I am not that confident what they're gonna be in Week one. They're going to Chicago now the every and here's the other reason. To me, there's a bit of a stay away. I feel like the whole world is gonna be on the Niners in this game. I no one wants to put
money on the Bears. It's too many points to lay as a road team in Trey Lance's you know, first game as the true full time starter, and the Bears are I need the Bears could be. I know in my when I picked every game of the season, I had the Bears winning a bunch of games. I have since revised that the Bears, you know, some people in Chicago, thin are gonna be worse team of football to stay away, all right.
Next we got the Giants at Tennessee. The Titans are favored by five and a half points.
Okay, this is a stay away to me because I don't know if Ryan hannah Hill went full Jake dell Ome and so by that I mean Jake Dellome had a kind of similar career arc of Ryan Tannehill, like is he a starter? Is he not a starter? Then all of a sudden, Jake Dellome was in a super Bowl. It's like, Wow, Jake Dellan finally in the right system, Ryan Tannels in an AFC Championship game, and then Jake Dellome in a playoff game. I want to look this up because I want to be right on this, and
I should have looked it up beforehand. My apologies. So hold on, Jake. I think Jake Delome had a four interception playoff game and then after that was just a shell of himself after that, like it basically ended his career. He never got over.
Kay.
Let me see if I'm right. I could have just made that up a five pick playoff game. Yep, that's right. So two thousand and eight. See, God, sometimes guy just tell you something. I know that nobody likes this. I sound like such an asshole. I am really impressed by myself something. Yeah, as thirteen and a half years ago a random Panthers Cardinals playoff game story, and I just vaguely remembered that Jake dell Ome I was like, and so now let me see if I'm right about what
it did to him the rest of his career. So that was in the two thousand and eight season. Jake dell home after that. So Jake Dellome in two thousand and eight this team was twelve and four. He had a eighty five passer rating. It was like a decent quarterback right ends that year with a five pick game the next season, the rest of his NFL career, by the way, which only went another sixteen starts. The rest of his career, he had eleven touchdowns, twenty five interceptions,
and a passer rating of sixty two. The playoff game broke it. So why am I bringing this up? Ryan Tannehill started last year's playoff game with a pick through a pick in the red zone and then ended the game with a pick. I am afraid that the Titans because the Giants are gonna be terrible, But there is a chance that the Titans that Tannehill's broken now, So I'm not laying five and a half points with that unknown. What's what's your question here?
I really have a question.
Oh okay.
I was more so trying.
To fascinated by my beautiful mind, how it works.
Yeah. Why are we talking about Jake Deloon though?
Okay, because I am worried that Ryan Tannehill is going to follow the Jake dellom path of like the career arcs have already been similar than a devastating playoff performance that leads into the next season. That's why I can't lay the five and a half points with Tennessee even though they're at home against a bad Giants team.
Next Raiders at the Chargers. Chargers are favored by three and a half points.
Yees is stay away I at three, I'd probably lay it. Here's the other reason to stay away from me. I the Chargers do not. This is I know it's in Los Angeles for the Chargers, it's gonna be a Raider home game. Chargers have no fans. Raiders have fans in LA, and they'll travel. So I'm concerned about.
That perfect example of one of those little the little you put it you you added a key to each subject.
I feel like that applied directly.
What do you mean like? I mean how you said that? You said the Chargers don't have any fans.
The fans are gonna be.
The Raider close, right, even though it will they're close in Vegas and the Raiders, who's play in LA, they have a bigger fan base. They're the Chargers playing San Diego. They don't have fan base in LA. And so why are the Chargers favored by three and a half because they're getting the three points for a home field, but I don't think it's really worth three points against the Raiders. Particularly however, I think the Chargers are awesome. So I'm
just staying away. So I'm staying away all right now to the be careful group, And what you're gonna see to be careful group is our fear of home underdogs, our fear of betting road favorites. Will explain, go ahead, what's first one?
New Orleans at Atlanta. Atlanta is five and a half point underdogs.
Yeah, So here's why it's be careful, because here's a here's a test. Try to find one person in the in your friend group that's like, hey, I'm big on the Falcons this week. You're not gonna find anyone betting the fount Not a single person Marcus Mariota. Maybe the worst team in the league that you're with New Orleans. You're laying less than a touchdown. People like New Orleans this year for reasons I don't totally understand. They are begging.
They're setting in five and a half, not even at six. They're begging you to bet New Orleans stay. I'm not betting. I'm not laying five and a half points with Jameis Winston on the road. And I'm also not putting betting the Falcons getting less than a touchdown. They are daring you to bet New Orleans. Be careful.
Next Green Bay at Minnesota, Minnesota the point and a half point a point and a half underdogs are all right again.
They are daring you to bet the Packers. You get the Packers basically gonna pick them. Do you think the Packers are better than the Vikings? Of course the Packers win thirteen games every year with Matt Lafor's there. Yeah, of course, the Backers are the best regular season quarterback and the last two years. And we're laying less than a less than a Fueld goal, less than two and no one. They are daring you. Vegas is telling you this, by the way, makes me think that Minnesota's gonna win
that game because they are. They're not, they are they are.
That's crazy.
They are daring you to bet the Vikings. They are begging you to bet the Packers. And again, if I if someone was like Nick, you have to bet that game, you know what I do? I bet the Packers in less than a point and laying point and a half. So that's why we That's why this category exists because it's very hard when you're making your picks. You want to go to what looks the best, but what looks the best very often is a trap.
Right all right? Next, too good to be true?
Tampa Bay at Dallas Dallas two and a half point underdogs.
Yeah, so this is another one. So the Bucks have the second best Super Bowl ons playing a Cowboys team that's totally banged up, and they're laying less than a field goal. They are. This is a you have, like the public, the America's team. People like betting the Cowboys, but everyone loves Brady. I don't really like either of
these teams as much as everyone else. But I think the fact that it's a two and a half and not three means they're once again that Vegas wants you to bet the road underdog the road favorite, and I won't do it. And I'm gonna be honest. I don't have a great feel for this game. Okay, I think both teams all if I was gonna bet anything in this game is probably the under because both teams offensive lines are banged up, and I think the total is at like fifty one, so I probably bet the under,
but I don't like to bet totals. So we're staying we're being careful on it, or we're not. We're not falling for it, all right? Next, this next one is blaring, flashing red lights of be careful. And I almost fell for it a month ago when I said I was gonna include this in a tease, and I'm not. Now, what's the next one?
Denver at Seattle Seattle six and a half point underdogs.
And what's your question for me here?
Why not hammer rust in his comeback game against Seattle?
Yeah?
Are you scared of Geno Smith?
I'm not scared of Geno Smith. However, here's what's gonna happen America. A lot of people are gonna lose their ass Sunday, Week one of the NFL, and you know it's gonna be sitting out there for the taking on Monday. Denver laying less than a touchdown going to Seattle. Scattle is supposed to be terrible. Denver could win the Super Bowl Russ with a chip on his shoulder. I'm laying less. You are not going to find one person that bets the Seahawks in that game, not one, and yet they're
not moving the line. All the money's coming in on Denver, and and yet they're not moving it to seven. They're not moving it to seven.
And a half.
It's almost like they want you to bet Denver. It's almost like the wise guys in Vegas are saying, Okay, Seattle Civic Northwest, long trip, week one, new coach, new quarterback, you want to lay six and a half points.
Go ahead.
They are they are what they are. And here's the other thing that's gonna happen. I'm not saying I'm picking Seattle out right. I don't have the guts for it. But so a teaser, demanse and for the listeners, is when you can move the line. The most traditional teaser is six points. There's six point, seven point, ten point, because six points. You can move the line six points, but you gotta do it with multiple games. So everyone, everyone is going to have some combination of a Bengals, Chiefs,
Broncos teaser. So they are gonna move those lines six points. So they're gonna take the Steelers from six and I'm sorry, the Bengals from six and a half point favorites two point five point favorites, meaning they just gotta win, or the Chiefs from six point favorites to zero point favorites, so they just gotta win. And the last leg for all the teasers across America, it's gonna be, Oh, I just need Denver to win.
Sounds like a pretty lose.
Yeah, how can I lose? And then all of a sudden halftime, it's gonna be thirteen to ten Denver, and you're gonna be like, oh boy, could Seattle steal this game? Be careful. I'm just telling you, America, be careful. Don't don't lose your ass in Week one. Bet in the games they want you to bet, all right. Last three, perfectly priced category.
Indianapolis at Houston. Houston's seven point underdogs.
Yeah, this is a perfectly priced exactly what's what it sounds like? I think these lines are spot on. I think Houston's not any good. The Colts are gonna be very good, but it's in Houston. A touchdown is just right. That's exactly where I would have set the line. I expect the Colts to win twenty four to seventeen, so there's no value in it.
Next all right.
Kansas City at Arizona. Arizona is six point underdogs.
Yeah, I think the Chiefs win by just around a touchdown. I am a I'm a little afraid of the Chiefs. Up by ten, Arizona gets the late garbage time touchdown to cover the spread. Yeah, all of a sudden they lose by three instead of vice ten. I think the line is just right. I think the Chiefs with no Tyreek kill the changes this offseason, and the Chiefs are gonna be excellent. But I don't want to lay.
You know, you've been hating on Arizona for months now.
I have been hating on Arizona for months now, But I think a lot of that's because I expect them to fold at the end of the year. And there's still a team that is a legitimate NFL team at home and there you gotta beat them by more than a touchdown or a touchdown. Plus, I think the line's exactly right. It's just perfectly priced, all right.
Next, right, Eagles at Detroit. Detroit are four point underdogs.
Yeah, I think that's exactly Again, I just think it's exactly right. I think that Philadelphia wins. I think Detroit puts up a good fight, and I think it's a you know, it's a one score game, so those are perfectly priced lines. I think Vegas got those exactly right. So that leaves us with the Rams Bills game, which will have already happened by the time you guys see this. Jags, the Jags Washington I keep for running call Washington Washington
football team. Uh, the Carolina Cleveland game, the Baltimore New York Jets game, and the Miami New England game. Those are the five games we're picking, and we tell you which side and why next.
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All Right welcome back in What's Right with Nick great Week one NFL gambling show. We just gave you our logic on eleven of the sixteen games, what where we would lean where? You gotta be careful. All of that's five games were betting. One of them happens tonight, which means it actually happened last night for you guys. That
is the Buffalo Bills visiting the Los Angeles Rams. And listen, I'm risking starting off zero to one by even including a Thursday night game and having it be By the way, I probably shouldn't be including this from a content perspective, because nobody can. Actually, this isn't actionable for the audience because by the time they hear this or see this, this game will have already happened. However, I feel so confidently that this line is wrong that I have to
include it. The Rams plus two and a half is the pick. Now here's the thing, and this is what I'm going to have to try to communicate and explain to Demanse. This does not mean I don't think the Bills can win. This doesn't mean that I don't think the Bills can cover. What this means purely is I think this line is so wrong I have to bet it. I think the true line this should be is the Rams by two and a half. I think this line is five points off. Now why do I think that?
I think the Rams and Bills are all most equal teams. I think the Bills are probably a touch better. But the games in Los Angeles, so if it's close to a pick them or give the Rams the you know a not the full three points, but in LA doesn't have as good of a home crowd, but they get the boost of their hanging their Super Bowl banner. This line is so illogical. I've been hairiring this on TV all week and again I might end up looking like
an idiot, but the line is just wrong. The line opened by the way at the Rams minus two, and it has been bet all the way to Bills by two and a half. It's insane. So all when there's so the goal is and again some of this is the listener knows. But Demonday's not a football better. So they set the line hoping that they get fifty percent
of action on both sides. But if one side keeps getting more of the action, they try to make that side less attractive by adjusting the line there, so it was you could get the Bills, and you could get them plus two points. Then everyone bet the Bills, so then they made it plus one and a half, didn't
change it. Plus one didn't change it. Pick them and they had They kept moving it, and people kept betting Buffalo to where it had to get all the way to two and a half, and now in some places it got back down to two where they're just minus two the Rams. You're telling me this game we're in Buffalo, the Bills would be more than a touchdown. Favorites of the defending champs would know. By the way, I would
like someone to answer this question. And again, maybe I'll look like an idiot because the game has already been played. Who is guarding Cooper Cup, Who's guarding any of the Rams receivers. It's because Stafford could throw the ball fifty times. Trey White is injured. The Bill's secondary is it's the biggest question mark, particularly it's corner spots. It's just the wrong line. So Rams plus two and a half is my first pick of the year. Next Jacksonville is in Washington.
Jacksonville's getting two and a half points. I'd love if this were three, it's not. I'm still taking Jacksonville plus the two.
And a half.
I think Jacksonville's better than Washington. I don't think Washington has any home field at all. The stadium sucks, the fans hate the owner. The fans hate the team. They love the team, they hate what the teams become. I think there is going to be an instant energy boost for Jacksonville post urban Meyer. I think Trevor Lawrence is going to have an outstanding season. I think Trevor Lawrence is going to be unleashed in a way he was not all of last year. I think the Jags win
this game out right again. If you're watching this and you're with me on it, it is worthwhile. If it's still two and a half where you're at, it's worthwhile waiting to see if somehow late money comes in on Washington and it pushes it up to three, because obviously three is such a key number, and you can be like, WHOA what if big money comes in on Jacksonville. Having it go from Jacksonville plus two plus two and a half to plus two doesn't really cost too much value.
But if you could somehow get it at plus three. By the way, that's what I'll do for the pick segment. I'm you know, it's two and a half, but I won't bet this until kickoff, hoping somehow it gets to three. It probably won't get to three, but I think Jacksonville wins the game out right anyway. I think they're the better team. I think they are a potential playoff team, and I don't think Washington has a home field. Should we go ahead? Does anything you want to say? We move on?
No, I've got no rebuttals.
You've got no rebuttals. Okay, no, no, No, that's good. You have somebody your little twinkle in your eye looks like you want to say somebody, that's fine. This is really and let's the you can chime in maybe you know what. In fact, I'm going to make an executive decision. I'm gonna give my five picks, and you give your chime in thoughts or questions at the end. Overall, Okay, Next one, Carolina is hosting the Panther or hosting the Browns. They're
only one and a half point favorites. Why why is Carolina not even getting the full three points from being at home?
Oh?
The Browns are better with Jacoby Brissett. Are we sure Carolina minus one and a half is the play motivated Baker Mayfield a healthy for the time being, Christian McCaffrey. Browns had the worst offseason of any team in football by a mile. Carolina got a legitimate defense. Jacoby was horrendous last year. Horrendous, and I only have to lay. They just have to win the game by more than one. Carolina is gonna win the game. I would bet this. I would have bet this up to Carolina minus three.
I'm getting it minus one and a half. This is It is baffling to me that there has not been more of a Jacoby Brissett adjustment. I understand people like the Browns for the year, and they liked him because, oh that roster with what we think Deshaun Watson's going to be. But I question how much people watched Jacoby Brissett last year. I'm trying to pull up his numbers, but they're really, really bad.
Guys.
He played in a total of eleven games for Miami. I'd like to pull up his game log, but in those eleven games he had I want to make sure I'm reading this sort Oh yeah, that's right. Five touchdowns, four picks, a seventy eight rating. Jacoby he averaged less than six yards per attempt. He's on the road. So yes, I believe in the Panthers this year to a agree, and I like Baker. This is more of a fading Jacoby Brissette situation. I like Carolina minus a point and
a half. Next, all right, I'm gonna be breaking some of my rules from the earlier parts of the show. You know, I don't like betting road favorites. I particularly don't like betting big road favorites. Sometimes though it's too good to be true. Baltimore's playing the Jets. This is one that I would not wait to bet. I would be terrified, not terrified. I would not want this thing to go to seven and a half. I know you
can be like, ah, maybe go six and a half. No, Baltimore minus seven against the Jets is the bet, and I could not be more thrilled about it. The idea, and I'm pulling up another game log here. The idea that we are getting the opportunity once again to bet against Joe Flacco is such a treat, the likes of which I thought was over in my life. I did not think we were. I thought that the days of betting against Joe Flacco were long gone. But they're not.
He is starting. This is going to be is this right? Hold on a second here, Okay, there we go. Joe Flacco last year and this what started when he started against Miami on the TV show. My three bets for the week were Miami first quarter, Miami first half, Miami game because I thought it was going to be the last time in my life that I got an opportunity to bet against Joe Flacco. And if I remember correctly, what costs I won the game. I won something else.
What cost me in that game I'm looking up now was a Jason Meyer missed field goal on the final play. Jason Sanders. Yeah, Jason Sanders, by the way, just real quick, I needed Miami to be leading by two and a half time in that game. Then I'll explain the logic in this game. They they got the ball to the fifteen yard line in a seven to seven game with fifteen seconds left in the first half. Jason Sanders, one of the best kickers in the league, who I don't
think had missed a field goal all year. Then Gacks a thirty two yard field goal. I don't win that bet, but I won the rest of them. I think I bet Miami money lined Miami game and Miami first half. Baltimore's seven's gonna be excellent. Baltimore's running game is going to be unstoppable. The Jets are a mess. This could. Baltimore is a team similar to Buffalo that against bad teams. I expect them to blow the doors off of them. This game has twenty one to three at halftime written
all over it. I again, typically I don't love betting road favorites. I really don't love betting road big road favorites. I will make the exception here. You have maybe the worst team in the AFC starting a decrepit old quarterback who is no business being a Week one starter in twenty twenty two against a Baltimore team that is going to be outstanding. Baltimore minus seven. All right, last game. Remember how I said there were four games I liked. Those were the four. I have my least level of
confidence on this game because of the half point. Miami minus three and a half at home against New England is the pick. I don't love laying more than a field goal with a rookie head coach and two a tongue I lows the quarterback against Bill Belichick. I have images of a to a Fumbler pick getting returned for a touchdown, dancing in my head and getting screwed here. However, I do not think the Patriots offense can score more than thirteen points. I don't so if there's not a
defensive or special team touchdown. Do I think Miami can get to seventeen? I do I because of my commitment to the audience, I will bet all five of these games, and I'll bet them all frequent amounts because that's how we're gonna do it throughout the year. One unit on each of these. But Miami is the one. I'm at three. I like it at three and a half. I don't love it as much as I love the other ones, but it's our final pick. It's a fade the Patriots season on this show.
So you really want to start off for a new betting show betting against Bill Belichick and betting on Baker Mayfield. I feel like that's not such a such a hot start, right. Well, let's see burst out of the gate, right Okay?
Well, you know what Let's see.
Bill Belichick's also won seventy three of his games coached by other coaches named Mike. So ok, seventy three screwed already.
Dumb as Wilde's stat on the TV show that Bill Belichick is undefeated in his career against rookie coaches making their coaching debut, and that undefeated is one to zero. It sounds good, but it's it's one.
Game, thirty three and twelve. Actually, he's coached.
Forty five games against dude's named Mike Tomlin. This is Mike Tomlin. Yeah, yeah, he hasn't coached forty five games against Mike Tomlin, obviously, Max, Mike, I do not believe he's thirty three and twelve against coaches named Mike. Okay, who gave you that stat? Matt, thirty three and twelve, Matt hold On, thirty three and twelve? Is that real? Now we're off the rails a bit. Thirty three and twelve, Okay, hold on a second, he has three hundred and twenty
one career wins. So you're saying ten percent or against a guy named Mike of his career wins or against coaches named Mike. Mike Shanahan. All right, that's a lot of games against Mike Shanahan, Mike Vrabel, Mike Smith, Mike Malarkey. I'm alright, I buy it. I guess seems like a big number. Seems like a big number.
Guy wins a lot of games. Man.
Uh No, that's a fair point. I mean he does win a lot of games. Uh. But Mike Petton, I thought, I said Mike Schula. But okay, all right, I give it to him. Wow, so ya doesn't change my opinion. Can we throw up the full screen of my five picks again?
Please?
Five picks Rams plus two and a half, Jacksonville plus two and a half, Carolina minus one and a half, Baltimore minus seven, Miami minus three and a half. Even though I don't love it as much as I love the others, there's our five picks coming up next. I will give you my lock, which while I do every single week, and if we're doing any teasers or parlays this week, any exotics, will give you those, and then Demand says he has a bit for me at the end,
which I'm sure will be a barrel of laughs. That's all Next, we wrap up Week one NFL Gambling show, Welcome back in time. Now for the lock of the week. I didn't even mention this. I will give you one survivor pool pick each week to wander. You know what survivor pool is?
Uh? No, okay, so this you know what I got.
You're in one. I got one for you.
Okay.
Survivor pools are very it sounds very simple, and they're incredibly fun. All you have to do every single week is pick one team to win, no point spread. That's the entirety of it. You have to pick one winner. The wrinkle is you can only pick a team once all season, so you got to when you make your pick, think, am I gonna want to? Is there gonna be a better opportunity to use this team later in the year. And whoever's the last person standing wins the pool?
Whoever?
You know, if you get it wrong, once you're out.
And if so, they have to keep winning consecutive again.
No, no, no, no, each week you pick a different team.
Oh okay.
But the point is is like, let's say, uh, the there's a jugger. Let's say you, not you, but someone believes the bills like a lot of people do, are a jugger.
Not you?
Can't pick the bills every single week. You can only pick a team once all year.
Oh so.
It is like you want to find a spot where there's a mediocre team, usually at home against an awful team, Pick them right, use them there, save the greaves for whatever the other it all. The other strategy the survivor pools is this, how big is your pool? So I'm in a pool that is has I'll say it, I don't care over ten thousand people in it. The payout
is for you, life changing, for me, be nice. But in a pool that size, there's a strategy of you actually don't want to pick the you know, the huge favorite cults hosting the Texans, you know later in the year of the eleven point favorites. That's always my strategy in giant pools because the only way that a giant pool is going to get end up with just one winner and not it being split one hundred different ways because one hundred people want it, is if one of
those a few of those giant favorites lose. So you want to avoid the teams that youth in a giant pool that thirty percent of the pool's gonna pick, you know what I mean? That way you can be rooted, and it's more fun to root for those upsets your life. In a small pool, you don't do any of that. You just try to survive in advance. So we'll do all that. Okay, Lack of the week is very simple, and it's actually also my Survivor pick. I'm it. I really believe the Ravens are gonna be awesome this year.
I also really, why is that still the picture of me? Fox still uses that picture of me when I was slightly overweight and bald heads. Yeah, it was just a terrible picture of me, A great picture. Demase. But Week one, we're all in unfading Flacco.
Okay.
Our lock is Baltimore minus seven. Our survivor pick is Baltimore against the Jets. You don't love picking road teams in Survivor, but there is no home team. What is the biggest I'm looking right now, who's the biggest home favorite this week? I think it's Cincinnati. There's no home team favored by more than a touchdown, So it's Cincinnati, And I don't love I'm certainly not betting Cincinnati in the Survivor pool because I think Pittsburgh there's a chance
they win that game. So Baltimore's our survivor pick. Baltimore's our lock of the week. So we're gonna all your long. We're gonna keep the standings of the five games we pick and the standings of the lock of the week. We also some weeks are gonna do teasers in parlays. Those are called exotics, you know, stringing bets together for massive payos. This is the type of thing you would like to do Week one, America, we're not doing any We're getting off, you know what. We're starting the season.
We're protecting our bank roll. We are. We don't love any of the teasers. They all feel like traps. There's no long shot parlay we like to do, so I know it's kind of anti climactic. No teaser, no parlay this week. You can't force it, guys. If it's there, it's there. If it's not, it's not. No teaser, no parlay this week. So that's for this week. Lack of the Week Baltimore RONEUS seven Survivor picked Baltimore over the Jets.
We're fading Flacco as much as we can. All right, Now, what's this silly bit you have?
So this is the offer the offer?
Yes, like the param Oh oh dude, what that's a cool photoshop?
That is pretty sick? All right?
Hold on, hold on, can I embarrass you real quick? It's about movie knowledge, it's not about anything else.
I've never seen The Godfather.
Oh but you knew that was from the Godfather? Yeah, I did because Matt told you no.
Because I played the video game.
Oh that was a great video game. That was a video game. I think I bought for myself and you ended up playing can we download that?
Not enough space? Oh?
Yeah, sidebar. I bought a PS five had a goddamn bodega for one thousand dollars. I bought it one terabyte. Like a terabyte sounds like a lot. I I just wanted a few games on it. I didn't go out of town. I come back. I'm like, hey, I'm gonna sit down and play a few video games on vacation from the show. All my games have been deleted, all deleted. And it's all of a sudden, we've got we got a third of the of the space on this is as you know. I found this. I don't even think
you've meant to do it. Do you know how much space you're taking. Yes, it's not even just games. It's not like, oh, Demonte has downloaded a bunch of games for the PlayStation. Go ahead, and by the way, once again, go back to an archived one of the original What's right. Fame of one of our favorite clips is back when you could just play a game. By playing a game, you didn't have to download it, put the disc in and it plays. The thing is a better time set outside.
But I'm like, why, how on earth is all this space taken up? And it's because Demonse's got a goddamn highlight reel. One of these videos to Monse is fourteen minutes long.
I mean, that's just how much I'm kicking ass.
It's like a huddle server of Call of Duty murders. So that's why I can't download or even keep the games.
I've start taking off some of the mediocre clips.
I almost erased all of them because I thought it was I was like, oh, he didn't mean to do this, like he accidentally clicked this.
Do it.
I was just like, you know what, I don't want Demond's to come up and be like, did you erase the videos? Like and this is how it would go and be like yeah, I did, Like all right, man, like why what's wrong? And I just in my head I was like no, I was I was gonna submit them in like a contest, and I was gonna be like, oh man, I screwed him, Like this is gonna be I really thought it was possible. But okay, all right, oh okay, all right, So what's the offer?
My offer?
I love that graphic once again, all starting quarterbacks over the age of thirty seven, Brady, Flacco, Rogers, and Ryan to have a rushing rushing touchdown.
Yes, which is crazy.
And when you look at the odds, hold on, well, so I want to be clear on this. Are you guys just making these up? Or is this an actionable wager you can make?
It?
Might like, is this a real Are the odds real?
It might be?
Actually yes, yeah, they are actually on Fox?
Bet okay, so they can do it on Fox.
Bet okay.
So there's a real bet. It's something make just but it's randomly No. I get that. I'm not saying did you bet it? I'm saying you didn't just make up the numbers? What are the odds that those four quarterbacks Brady Flaco, Rogers, and Ryan, all I have a rushing touchdown.
For those For those four, you bet one hundred, you win seven hundred and fifty about seven hundred and fifty thousand dollars.
It's plus seven hundred and fifty thousand.
Yes.
With one hundred enough not enough, not enough?
Okay.
With only Rogers and Brady, your bet one hundred, you get about fifty five hundred bucks.
So it's plus just five hundred thirty. I don't hate the Rogers and Brady one, okay, I despise the other one even like that. No, it's just the odds that all four do it are almost it's folks, there's gonna be like ah, but it pays out. Take this as the final I'm not going to take any.
Of these bets, by the way, okay, but sweet.
Take this as the final lesson of the first What's Right Show? Losing bets pay zero. Just remind yourself that before you type in the hey here this thirty cents can turn into six hundred thousand dollars. There's a reason because losing bets pay zero.
All right, cool Vegas, you got thirty cents. Whoop de doo.
Okay, I'm just telling you losing bets pay zero, and that plus seven hundred and fifty thousand dollars that the four oldest quarterbacks in the league are gonna get rushing touchdowns.
Hey man, By that logic though, losing bets pay nothing.
But if I just keep keep playing these small one off bets week by week by week by week, when it finally does pay off, it paid off and I got I got a profit.
Yeah, or it never pays off and you lost.
But it's gonna pay off. It's bound to pay off one time.
A seven hundred and fifty thousand Okay. I just want you to understand that that is the odds of it.
I get it. It's they're very slim.
Seventy five hundred to one. So when you say it's bound to pay off, seventy five hundred to one is bound to pay off. Like the odds are in your favor that it happens at least once once you do it more than three thousand times. So that's why, okay, listen, I don't want to end the show on a down note. I have to go do television. Folks, gamble safely. Don't bet any amount you can't afford to lose. Is supposed to enhance the enjoyment of the games, not give you
nightmares at night, not keep you up at night. I say that's someone from a lot of experience, with a lot of gambling highs and a lot of gambling lows.
I'm just trying to get my new apartment in Los Angeles as all, I'm trying to think of the best way to do it.
I feel like this is definitely.
A nice get rich quick scheme that will definitely pay out, maybe like week four.
Okay, Well, you know, there is a part of Demondse's ability throughout life to just kind of dance through the rain drops that I could see him being the guy who is like, hey, second bet of my life, paid eighty to one and hit it. I can see that. I also thought the apartment in Los Angeles was already paid for with the ten thousand dollars you won for me that you swore was being put away.
But I got the shades, the Cardier sunglasses that were in the graphic.
Okay, Cardier card Okay, let's just end it on Demonse spend fox bet account, spending his apartment money on designer sunglasses that he pronounced Cartier. Let end I did not just say Cardier. What did you say?
I said Cardier.
Check the tape listen. I know we got a quick turnaround on this. If we could just end the show with the monse solo pronunciation of that, that would be wonderful.
I got the shades, the Cardier sunglasses, the Cardier sunglasses, the Cardiers, the Cordier sunglasses.
I'll talk to you, guys on Tuesday. I'll see you on TV on Monday. Good luck this weekend. Hey, thanks for watching Smash. Or just slightly tap that subscribe button. It all works the same to get more from the show and make sure you click why don't want to mash the bell too, guys, or just you know, lightly tap the bell to get notified every time new content drops. Check out full episodes of What's Right wherever you get your podcasts, or just hit the link in the description below