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Welcome. In episode one seventy five, on the day the twenty twenty three NFL season begins, the day the Kansasity Chiefs start the defense of their title and their inevitable march to a repeat, and the day that Monse re joins the show. You know, he's in la And after the first year of the show, while you know, I tried to give Demonse a lot of credit, we had you know, one hundred thousand subscribers. He got the plaque.
I'll be honest, I thought it was my doing. But when Demanse left the show five months ago, we had one hundred and like four thousand YouTube subscribers. We now nearly half a year later, are at one hundred and twenty two thousand, which means our growth slowed significantly without him. So if we have any opa get into one hundred and fifty or two hundred thousand, we had to bring him back. He's live from Los Angeles. He's locked in on the NFL. Are you ready for this pal glad
to be back in? Very much? So? Ready? Let's do it. Let's do it all right. First, here's what missed. Caleb may stay at USC. I don't buy that Nick Bosa signs a record extension. Chris Jones unfortunately does not. And I saw this in the rundown. I didn't know why they put it in there. We are not a pop culture show. We are a sports, gambling and parenting show.
The Timothy Shalomey and Kylie Jenner go public. I'm not I think maybe this was meant for a different Blue Duck podcast and he tried to fit it into ours. That's not what we're doing any day. It's certainly not what we're doing on the day the NFL season starts, Demansey. Before we get to our gambling picks, which are coming in segment two, a whole new, revamped gambling show. Let's get to the big stories in the NFL.
Go right ahead, all right, So Travis Kelsey went down in practice with a hyper extended knee a few days.
Ago or leg whichever.
His brother Jason Kelsey, you got it, yea, His brother Jason Kelsey seems to think that he's gonna be fine, and we think they might play tonight, but we're not one hundred percent sure. So without Kelsey one d percent, it's not too late to take back your twenty to ozero Chiefs bet Are you feeling a little bit of a doubt right now?
Okay, you guys are just trying to bait me into showing the never a Doubt tattoo, which I don't mind doing. I can do it, I don't know how to do it on this camera. Angle there it is. I'm feeling no doubt, Clark Hunt when on television the owner of the Chiefs today said he thought Travis might play. But here's the thing. I don't want Travis to play. And it's not even because of the potential for reinjury, because seems like all the sports doctors out there are saying
because there was no structural damage. It's a bone bruise after the hyper extension, and because of that, it's more of a pain tolerance thing than a reinjury thing. So it's not that I don't want Travis to play because I'm worried he's gonna get hurt again. The guy has been pretty indestructible throughout his career. In the last nine years, he's missed three games, twice because the Chiefs were so good he didn't have to play the final week of
the season, and once because of COVID protocols. He has not missed a game due to injuries since his rookie season, when he had knee surgery. The reason that I don't want Travis to play is because I want the Chiefs
to send a message to the entire NFL. I want without the best defensive player in the sport, Chris Jones, without the best tight end ever who's also the biggest weapon in the sport, and against a trendy Super Bowl pick the frisky Detroit Lions, for the Chiefs to lay the SmackDown on him without two of their three best players throwing passes to Gadarius Tony and Justin Ross and Noah Gray and to leave no question whatsoever who the team to beat in the league this year is because
a very curious thing demanse has happened, which is, I know you've been watching a lot of sports television, consuming a lot of it. You know what I've seen. I've seen a lot of people picking teams not named the Kansas City Chiefs to not only win the Super Bowl, but win the AFC. I saw the NFL dot Com twenty five of their thirty four picked someone on the Chiefs on what was it? Yes, no, it wasn't the ESPN,
Fox Sports, our own company. Let me ask you this, to Monsey, we had fifteen experts on foxsports dot Com pick the Super Bowl. Of those fifteen, how many do you think had the Chiefs in the Super Bowl? And how many do you think had the Chiefs winning the Super Bowl? Give it a guess.
Uh three maybe had him in the Super Bowl and one had him winning.
Yeah, you almost got it. Exactly four had a minute, two had him winning. Eleven of our fifteen experts, then guy, they can't even win the AFC. Thirteen of the fifteen say they can't win the Super Bowl. I just saw a screenshot from Get Up ESPN's morning show. Their four
experts all picked the Super Bowl the AFS. Three of the four picked the Niners to win it, one the Ravens to win it, and the three who so somebody had the Ravens winning the AFC, and the three who picked the Niners to win the NFC had them playing in the Super Bowl. The Jets, the Bills, the Bengals. You know what it feels like somehow coming off seventeen and three, a league MVP winning the Super Bowl on one leg, nobody believes in us. Again, Hey, everybody, everybody
year bulletin We need the bulletin boards. So for all those reasons, I hope Kelseys chills out. I also do kind of hope Chris Jones, like runs out of the tunnel with a contract, get the crowd fired up, even though he can't play like an old school wrestling thing, like good god, that's Chris Jones' music. But yeah, I'm not I'm not concerned about Kelsey long term. He's gonna be fine, and it looks like they avoided massive injury.
One other note on this before me move on. When I first got to Houston, JJ Watt was coming off his rookie year. In training camp, he hyper extended his elbow and people worried, oh my god, he could have torn ligaments. He ended up being very fortunate there was no structural damage. They're like, oh, we dodged a bullet. He was our first round pick last year, came on strong at the end of the year. He finished that year with twenty and a half sacks and one Defensive
Player of the Year. So all I'm saying is all time legendary players. The hyper extension that could have gone terribly, but you avoid injury. Oh boy, Yiannis before the NBA Finals, remember hyper extended his knee. It looked like, oh my god, he might have torn all his ligaments. He then scored fifty to win the championship and averaged forty a game for the last five games. Great athlete. To avoid devastating injury, you know, they can sometimes become more dangerous.
Go ahead, So we got a question from the chat from jose log. Wow, already, this is Nick. Do you believe in Jinxes? Now Kelsey injures the knee his knee the same day that you said that you don't believe in Jinx's.
Can't be a coincidence? Can it? Do you believe in Jinx's demonse? Yes and no?
And I don't know how to explain why yes and no, but but yes kind of I kind of believe in that does. And I kind of believe that. You jinks, Travis.
Kelcey, Okay, I jinks. The idea that there is something I could say from half the country away and it impacts Ravis Kelsey's health of his knee is just nonsense.
Vibes man, the vibe that it puts out into the atmosphere.
This is I don't believe in Jinx's and I think I proved that by getting a Chiefs related tattoo saying they're gonna go twenty to oh and guaranteeing the Super Bowl. Let's talk about tonight's game, Demons, what's next? All right?
So we talked about long term for the Chiefs, let's talk about short term. Got no pass rush from Chris Jones and no true number one target for Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelcey. Should we hammer the Lions money line tonight?
Okay? Stop it? Listen. Patrick Mahomes in week ones averages thirty eight points a game is eighteen touchdowns no picks is five and zero, has a nearly perfect passer rating. The Chiefs fewest points they've ever scored in a Week one game under Patrick Mahomes is thirty three points. Extrap take that out further. Wait, that's true. The lowest amounts. Yeah, they've scored thirty three, thirty four, thirty eight, forty and forty four. That's what they've done in his five Week
one games. So let's go further. Patrick Mahomes in his career in weeks one through four is seventeen and three with sixty touchdowns and six interceptions. The Chiefs have won seven consecutive home or seven consecutive Week one games under Andy Reid. You, then, I remind everybody the one game Mahomes is played in his career without Kelsey, the COVID game December of twenty one against a playoff team, the Pittsburgh Steelers. They scored thirty six points and Mahomes played
perfect football. Oh, Nick, but that team at Tyreek Hill. Tyreek Hill had two catches for nineteen yards in that game. Byron Pringle and Derek were the Chiefs leading receivers. One of those guys is a running back that the Detroit Lions, and I know Demons. Last year you thought I wasn't giving golf enough credit. He was awesome at home on the road, outside of the friendly confines, of the perfect weather and the dome and the perfect footing, all of
that all year long on the road. Six touchdowns, four picks, eighty three passer rating was not great on the road. You keep talking about worry about the jinxes. I'm not worried about the jinks. Now. The Lions might be able to score some points now. I think the Chiefs defense could be very good this year, but obviously they need Chris Jones for that. I know the Chiefs offense is scoring a minimum of thirty tonight. I'd set the actual total at thirty eight. I think the Chiefs will score
thirty eight tonight without Kelsey. Can they win the Super Bowl without Kelsey Jones? Of course not. Can they beat the Lions? Of course they can. At the home opener, dropping the banner and glass half full? Is this if Kelsey doesn't play? Kadarius Tony gets more involved, gets the season off from the start. Yeah, picking up where he left off touchdown in the Super Bowl. Sky Moore, who had a brutal, not a brutal but a disappointing rookie year,
but then scored a touchdown in the Super Bowl. He gets the ball more and demonse a guy that you're not familiar with, but America is gonna become familiar with Blue Dog folks. Clip this please, and let's send it out sometime tonight right around the time. This guy makes a huge play. Justin Ross. So Justin Ross demanse as a freshman at Clemson in the National Championship Game with
the Prince who was promised throwing him passes. Justin Ross actually in as a true freshman in the semi fin in the playoffs, had three hundred yards in two games as a guy who had just turned nineteen. He then found out he had some spinal cord congenital spinal cord thing, and he went from a no doubt first round pick to undrafted. He then, after the Chiefs drafted him, had to have foot surgery, I'm sorry, after the Chiefs signed him in undrafted free agency, had to have foot surgery
and missed a whole year. But at camp this year, woo ooh, Justin Ross looking like that five star kid out of high school. Looking like the nineteen year old that lit the world on fire. Justin Ross. People are gonna be like, is that the kid from Clemson? Oh? It is the kid from Clemson, not worried about the Chiefs offense, just flatly not worried about it.
Well, I hope this justin Ross thing works out for you.
Who do you got tonight? Who do you got tonight? I mean, I'm not gonna pick the Lions to win the game, but there you go, there you go. That's all I need it, That's all I needed everybody. There's the same thing Bruceard does to me on TV. He's like, oh, you're over the top. Oh this, oh that, And I'm like, okay, who you got? He's like, I'll take this exactly all right, new segment alert, go ahead.
All right, to start off the football season, let's play a new game. I'm gonna call this one planting your flag. You make five takes each month, and we're actually gonna hold you accountable.
Oh we love that.
Uh, you have to you have to switch two takes every month. So if you have five great takes, you have to cut two good ones. So okay, plant your flag on five things you're sure will happen this year, and we'll revisit this in October.
Okay, So at first I thought these were supposed to be five predictions just for the next month, but these are season long takes that and we're gonna adjust every month. Now, this is hard for me because, as you guys know, consistency for a reason so many great takes exactly right, it's and it's hard because they're gonna ask me to abandon two of these takes a month from now, I'm gonna say it. So I almost want to throw in some bad ones just so we don't have to abandon
good ones. But we won't do that, all right. The first take in the obvious take is that everyone, over the course of the year is going to realize, oh, the Chiefs did win the Super Bowl in a rebuilding year, and now we have no answers for him that the Chiefs are going every The NFL commentariot is going to have to couch all of their takes with this premise. Well,
obviously the Chiefs are the best team. But but if something happens to Mahomes but if you know what I mean, any given Sunday, but aside from them, every is just gonna be a given that the Chiefs are heading shoulders bet than everyone. That's the first one. Second one, the Jacksonville Jaguars are gonna have a top five offense, the Jacksonville Jaguars. And now I don't want to plant my flag fully on the Jags winning twelve or thirteen games.
I believe that can happen, but I would like to see the defense first, because I but I know they're gonna have a top five offense.
We get possibly the twenty well, the Chiefs going twenty and oh will that make it? Will we plan a flag on that one? Or are we not playing flags?
I already did that. I mean, I'm not trying to you know, I'm trying to give unique things to this show. Yeah, I mean the go ahead and add the go ahead and add to the Chiefs flag slash twenty and zero. That's fine, Yeah, undefeated, that's gonna be one of the ones that you take out and like we three. No, I'm not gonna have to take that out. I'm not gonna. Okay, but you know what, that's a good call to them on say, in case something insane happens and they lose
a game. Now, that's an easy one to remove, all right, the the Jets. The big story surrounding the Jets by Thanksgiving, if not sooner, is going not going to be can they win the super Bowl, but is going to be Robert Sala's job security. And my favorite see the future opinion I've had in years, and I know you're listening. You're like, Nick, you rank your favorite of your own opinions, And the answer to that is, of course I do. And this is maybe my favorite one is that Sala
gets fired. And I like Robert Sala as a guy, so I'm not this is this is just like my prediction. Just wait, just wait for it. Sally gets fired. And then after the year, Rogers goes to Woody Johnson and it's like, you know, I'm you know, I'm thinking about going back in that darkness retreat and I don't know if I'm going to play next year. But I'll tell you what, I would really push me in the comeback direction if you make my old buddy Nat Hackett head coach.
That in not Hackett, who everybody flamed, but he's the greatest man I've ever known, And go ahead and make him head coach. So that's prediction number three, that's plant My flag number three. Number four is that Kyle Shanahan's indecision and inability to identify a quarterback finally bites him when all of a sudden Sam Darnold is playing for the San Francisco forty nine ers, and that comes crumbling down so that the Niners. I still think. Listen, I
still think the Niners playoff team. You like that one a lot, Yeah, And I listen. The Niners have so much talent, particularly well on both sides of the ball, really, and the NFC is so weak that I think even with a disastrous quarterback situation, they could make the playoffs. But a lot of people think of the Niners this year what I thought of them last year, which is that they could win the best team could win the conference.
I think Purdy is a little smoking mirrors. And I don't know that any quarterback under Shanahan's system can stay healthy. Everybody kill Like if all your quarterbacks get hurt every year at some point, it might be a bit of the system. And so and if Darnold gets in there, who he compared to Steve Young, Like, give me a break, there, go ahead.
They're getting hurt in some like wild kind of ways that I don't know if you can necessarily blame it on the system.
I mean, well, brock Perdy got hurt because they left a son Reddick unblocked because they wanted to send someone out in a route like the if everyone if I ran door Dash competitor, and everyone's like, oh my god, Nick's company, it's amazing. They get me my food faster than door Dasher, Postmates or Grubhub. How does he do it? And the secret was thirteen drivers a week get hit by cars because I haven't disobeyed the traffic signals. At some point there would be like a push in a pull.
Everyone's like, oh my god, Shanahan's system. It's so indefensible. Yet every year multiple quarterbacks getting under it, Like so I mean these things might be at least a little correlated. Uh, all right, and then so I need one more. So that was a you know what, I'm gonna go ahead. And I also have a running list in my head of on the fly analogies. That was one of my better ones, all right, last one. Bijon Robinson, as a rookie,
is already considered the best running back in football. I'm not even gonna couch it on really really good every I think it's gonna be really really good. But Bjeen Robinson is widely considered the best running back in the NFL. So we're planning my flag on twenty and zero and the Chiefs ruin all football commentary, uh Hackett hot seat, JAG's top five offense, Shanahan's quarterback stuff bites him, and Bijeon already being the best running back in the NFL.
All right, the next thing we're doing here, Demansay is you were not here because it was your sister's final show. Our schedule for the people watching right now with the podcast audience, because we didn't do a show last Thursday, and I had promised that we would, we didn't do a show all of last week. Kind of screwed up our schedule. So I'd like to apologize for that. That's
nobody's fault, just so everybody knows what happened Tuesday. Last Tuesday, we couldn't do a pod because there was I needed to host Collins TV show and my TV show, so that doesn't allow me to do the pod. And then Thursday we had there was an important there was essentially a meeting that we had to have for the TV show involving some folks who were in from LA and bruce Ard and Wilde. And the only time the La folks and bruce Ard and Wilds everybody could do it
was at this time. I'm on Thursday, So I sacrificed the pod. But because of that, we then everything got pushed back. Demand was supposed to be here for our season preview show, but I didn't want Diora to not get a farewell show. So that's why we're all kind of condensed right now. I don't know if you guys care about that, but that is I don't want anybody who's watching right now we're listening to think that this is you know that I do these things haphazardly, just
sometimes life jumps in. So in the season preview show, we had eight season win totals that we actually bet. If you want to hear listen back to that season preview show. You can hear our thoughts on all thirty two win totals, but we had eight that we actually bet. We bet the Bears under seven and a half wins the Cowboys instead of taking over ten and a half at minus money. We took them, I'm sorry, at over nine and a half at minus money. We took them
over ten and a half at plus money. The Jags, we did the same thing instead of nine and a half, took them over ten and a half and plus a lot case obviously over eleven and a half because they win twelve every year. The Patriots over seven and a half because they won eight games last year with Mac playing worse than he could possibly play in terrible coaching situation. The Eagles under eleven and a half because their schedules not as soft, and I think they come back to
the pack a bit. And it should be noted no team has won back to back NFC East titles in twenty years, yet everyone's penciling the Eagles in for it. The Niners at under ten and a half for the reasons I just mentioned, and the Seahawks at over eight and a half because I think they're gonna win the division of those win total bets demands anyone jump out to you that you love or that you really dislike anything.
I think New England's gonna get more than seven wins. I think New England off the top is gonna get more than seven wins.
Okay, so you're with me on that because I've got them over seven and a half. What else?
Oh, you know, I honestly saw that as a US working out.
No, that's okay. No, the unders that we have our Chicago, Philly, San Francisco.
Yeah, I saw an opening on the top of it. Uh so, yeah, dude, it's uh that I don't.
I don't.
I don't find anything wrong with your win totals. Wait, actually, Chicago under seven and a half. I think they can win nine games this year.
Okay, that demandse loves the running quarterback, loves them helas Justin Fields, Daniel Jones. We're gonna get to some Lamar Jackson stuff in a moment. I mean, just loves it is. Can't get enough of the running quarterback. So that actually what I say.
I saw those couple of little screen passes that Justin Fields had over the preseason. I like what I'm seeing before they even get to the defenders. Go ahead, Sorry, no.
You're fine. I I agree with you. In large part. Here's my feeling on Chicago. They could more than triple their win total from last year. They could increase their win total from last year by five wins and hit the under. They could have a great year and hit the under, so I'm going with the under. I think that their ceiling is seven to ten, all right, the division winner bets. So I kind of coupled these into
two groups, which are three semi long shots. I only need to go one for three to break even, two for three and make a lot of money, and then two not long shots but not favorites. So the Dolphins to win their division at plus two ninety, Pittsburgh to win the AFC North at plus four seventy, and Green Bay to win the NFC North at plus three fifty. The Pittsburgh bet is the one I want to talk to you about because it's kind of in lockstep with
the fact that I have Baltimore missing the playoffs. I know you're very high on the Ravens, your thoughts.
Well a couple of things on there with Miami. I don't even see them winning that division. I honestly think the Jets could win that division. I think that the Jets mean everything that they've been saying. I think that they're going to surprise people. And obviously the Ravens, you got them missing the playoffs. Entirely, which is just pretty crazy.
I think that if Odell Beckham says healthy the entire year, which is I don't know if that's a big ask, but sure there's no way that they're missing the playoffs entirely, like not enough to be a wild card and at least like sneaking. I just don't see that Steelers winning that division.
To me is crazy. But so the argument for the Steelers is last year TJ. Watt missed seven games. He's their best player. Canny Pickett had a terrible rookie season.
Yeah, they were like mixing and matching with the quarterbacks, I feel like, yeah.
And they still won nine games. So with TJ. Watt healthy, with Pickett just taking a bit of a jump, can they win eleven? I think yes. And I think Cincinnati and Baltimore don't clear eleven.
That's I mean, that's exactly what I was about to say. With Cincinnati and Baltimore in there, I don't think it'll matter.
But uh no, that's most people agree with you. That's why they're plus four to seventy and then the other two. We don't have so much time on Atlanta plus two to ten to win the division. In Seattle plus two thirty to win the division Atlanta. That's Bjean Robinson Bett and kind of fading the Saints and Seattle. That is just fully fading the forty nine ers. Yeah.
I was about to say, what's up with that? The Seattle winning a division that the forty nine ers are playing in. I get you just said everything that you said about Shanahan's offense and his quarterbacks getting but at the end of the day, I.
Just don't believe in that's it. It's just flatley and I think Seattle. Seattle played more rookies last year than any team in the NFL, so now all of a sudden, I think those rookies have a little more experience, they're even better. So I like Seattle in that spot.
And you don't think with Donald, with Donald being the quarterback in the forty nine ers defense, you don't think that they're capable of winning that division.
Okay, Jets had good defenses with him, Carolina had good defenses with him. No, if Donald is the quarterback, I am certain the Niners aren't winning the division. And then a couple parlays demonse a Jags Chiefs win the division parlay you get plus one fifty on that. You gotta admit you love that. Bet the Jags and Chiefs just win the division and we get plus one fifty. And then my long shot one, which is why it's only a quarter unit. Bet Pittsburgh, Miami, and Green Bay all
to win their divisions ninety nine to one. How about that ninety nine to one on that. See, Demond hated all three of those picks, but now he's gonna beat fight it to happen. Then Demonse might put fifteen bucks on ninety nine to one on the Eagles to win last year's Super Bowl, Like, yeah, it's ninety nine to one, Like, who knows, maybe they'll find out the game was rigged all right? Now, make miss playoffs bet?
Uh.
The first one is similar to the Chiefs Jags division winning bets, but we added Dallas to just make a playoffs plus one sixty. Brown's Jets Detroit to miss the playoffs at plus even to fifty five for a quarter unit. That's just a cursed franchise missed the playoffs. And then one that I feel very strongly about, and you seem to really disagree. This will be good for the show all year, So you're buying into the Jets hype demonse.
I'm buying in I don't really like Aaron Rodgers, so like, I feel like that's saying a lot. I just think that with Aaron Rodgers being in this new situation, the relationship has still got that new car smell, and like, I think that this is a good switch up for him, and I think that he's gonna be He's gonna be there, like mentally and physically. I don't think he's gonna be checked out. The Jets obviously have a good defense. They got Dalvin Cook. I think that, Hey, dude, but this
is they do have. They defacy do have a tough schedule. Like their first six weeks is pretty tough.
Well, the first six weeks are brutal. If they come out of the first six weeks three three, they can be dangerous. I just don't know that they can do that. But the other thing is this, this is the second opinion you've given here to Monsey where the vast majority of experts agree with you, not me, Like, this is what you're saying is I am way more out of step with mainstream on this than you are. So we'll see.
And then my Super Bowl pick Kansas City Dallas at thirty to one and Kansas defeat Dallas at fifty to one. Would you like to give a Super Bowl pick here?
So I think it's gonna be Ravens Dallas, And if it isn't Ravens Dallas, it's gonna be Kansas City Dallas.
Super Bowl Wow. So she can say wow because Demons actually told me that last night. But he said it before he knew mine, So before Demanse even knew mine, so he's not like, you know, parroting me here. He said it independent. And it was a little disappointing that it was before he knew mine because I had given that on television on Friday and Demanse.
Was unaware of it.
So it was a little sad for me. But Uh, I tried. This is how much Demanse, though cares about I'm gonna expose you a little bit in a good way. I'm really exposing myself. This is how much Demanse cares about his integrity on this show. When he told me he liked uh Dallas in the NFC, I tried to cajole him into going with the Giants instead because he's a Daniel Jones guy, and he was like, no, I can't do it. He's like, I do like Daniel Jones, but I can't make him to win the Super Bowl.
No, no, not that man. And honestly, have you.
Seen what Greg Jennings has said about Daniel Jones at quarterback in the NFL. He's got a lot of faith in Daniel Jones. But go ahead, I'll let you finish. Hey, man.
It seems like he does slowly start to stop making the same mistakes from the previous year. And if he's in that same trajectory, then I think he.
Is going to be a top ten quarterback this year. I mean, he's listen. If he improves, that's correct. If he improves as much this between last year and this year as he did between the year prior to last year and last year, then he will be a top ten quarterback. My concern for him is not even that he flatlines, but that he goes in the other direction. All right, this was fun. We're right in the swing of things, even though it's early morning in LA and
we're cross country. Our gambling picks now, just like last year, five picks from me every single week. Five of the last six years. I've been a documented winning gambler on either this show or the TV show would However, I've
done it ever since I've been on TV. I've been giving out three or five picks every week, a documented winning record, and not just winning record, better than fifty two point four percent against the spread, which is the break even number with the vig Also, this year, Demons is going to give us a weekly teaser and we are going to have a season long competition. We'll talk about what that is next. Take a quick break, come back, what's right.
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Welcome back in We'll drive You. Nick gread Episode one seventy five, our Week one NFL Gambling Show and just general football. We kind of recap preview, get you ready for Lions Chiefs, and now is time for our five picks of the week, My five picks of the week, plus Demonse's weekly teaser and some listen sometimes Demonse's teaser, depending on if he's doing a two, three, four, five team teaser. I have a feeling I don't know what
this week's is. By the feeling, before we get to Halloween, we're gonna have debuted a few sixteen teasers, so his the teasers that aren't two two teamers are plus money. But whatever it is, we are going to keep track on a unit basis how profitable I am versus how profitable Demanse is and will be a season long contest. So and it has nothing to do with amount we bet, because Demanse and I are gonna obviously bet different unit sizes,
so we're just gonna normalize it. We're gonna maybe we're gonna treat them all as one unit bets and go from there. But before we get to Demanse's teasers teaser, just like we did last year, my five picks every single week demonse, what's my first one? All right? So first off, you got Jags minus four and a half at Indy. Let's talk about that one, Okay, So I listen, do you just want to go ahead and give all the reasons that this is a terrible bet that the producers have given have put in.
The notes bets do it? So you went one and see depending on the Jags last year? We all remember that, Okay.
Okay, before yes, but that is only because the producers bullied me out of betting on them the moment they started their hot streak. I bet on the Jags basically every week. The producers made me stop, and then they immediately became the hottest team in the NFL. It was ridiculous. So that should be more like seven and seven, but they wouldn't let me do it.
Go ahead, all right, Well, Trevor is four and fourteen on the road, straight up, it's pretty big.
I don't care about that doesn't matter. That includes the Urban Meyer era. And lastly, go ahead.
Last thing, the Jaguars haven't won an Indy since twenty seventeen, that is when I graduated high school.
By the way, okay, I don't care about any of that. Here's what I know. We believe in the Jacksonville Jaguars. This is Anthony Richardson's first start. I understand this is a you know, I am taking a road dog as my first pick of the year. I'm sorry, road favorite, pardon me as my first pick of the year. That and it goes against all these trends. Don't care. The Jags are gonna score thirty one points and he's gonna be happy to get to seventeen. I love this bet.
Go ahead, well, no fear in your heart that Anthony Richardson might be the next Daniel Jones, because like he might have a breakout game and destroy your jackson That's a pretty good question.
I do think Anthony Richardson was a good pick and his upside is massive. I don't think he's gonna look good in his first NFL start, So I had that happened the way Yeah, so so Cam in his first ever NFL start, I think got four hundred yards, but Cam also was coming off a Heisman Trophy and undefeated season, being the consensus number one overall pick. Cam Is first NFL start ever four hundred and twenty two yards and three total touchdowns, there's a few. I know. It's unbelievable.
He walked into the NFL after having arguably the single greatest college season anyone's ever had. He walked into the NFL and was just dominant on the flip side. Jamis Winston in his first ever NFL start, had two picks and two fumbles. Marcus Mariota, who was the number two pick of that draft, in his first ever NFL start, completed eighty seven percent of his passes with four touchdowns. So there are certain instances where guys have awesome first starts.
I don't think Anthony Richardson's gonna do that. I think Trevor's gonna be awesome. I like the Jags. Next.
All right, next, you've got New England at home plus four versus Philly.
Okay, the entire gambling world is going to be on Philadelphia. Patriots offensive line is banged up. The Eagles have this amazing pass rush. The Patriots looked terrible last year. Why is this line not higher? Here's what I know Belichick. I don't want to say he's on the hot seat. What I will say is he really wants Don Shula's record, and he needs to have either two more good seasons or three more mediocre seasons to get there. I don't
know if Kraft is gonna give him that time. If they're a disaster this year, Philly coming off the super Bowl hangover, I'm getting points at home with the better coach. The crowd is going to be insane because they are retiring Brady's jersey and putting him in the Ring of Honor all of that. So we I know the graphics right now, say Jacksonville, but in New England getting four points, I don't need them to win. I just need them
to keep it close. New England getting four points against Philadelphia. What do the producers think of that one?
Demonsey, Well, since two thousand teams that lost in the previous season super Bowl or four and nineteen against the spread in the week one following in the week I like the following.
Season, that's good. What's the other note?
The other note is Hurts is thirteen to five and one against the spread at home, but only six and thirteen against the spread on the road.
Oh so I don't listen. I don't have access to these little factoids when I make my picks because I don't want to be swayed by the trends, but that it sounds like as much as the Sharps might not have liked my Jacksonville pick the New England pick, I could be on the right side of it. What's the next one? Right? Uh?
We got greed. You've got Green Bay plus one and a half at Chicago.
Yeah. I mean they're the far better team. They have, the better coach they have for this game, potentially the better quarterback. This might be one of the only games all year green Bay. We'll see listen. I think Justin Fields might end up being really good, but he struggled massively throwing the football last year. Passing was the Packers. The Packers, and I think Jordan Love will be solid just from being able to sit for three years. The Packers,
I think are super motivated. The Packers had their you know, their spouse of fifteen years leave them immediately, get in shape, start going to the gym, get out and get some things worked on, and start telling the whole world how much they love their new girlfriend. So they're motivated. The Packers. Devens is good, the running game is good, their weapons are good. I think Green Bay wins this game out right. I like the Packers a lot go ahead.
Was Jordan Love sacked at any point this preseason?
I don't know. Maybe I don't think he was. I don't think he was.
I think the big thing for him this preseason is he got no pressures.
Uh So, like what if? What if?
What if the Chicago Bears come and sack him and rattle them like they did perty And no, that's fair, but the.
I don't trust the Bears defense at all. The Bears defense was terrible last year. I know they invested some in it, but you can't remake your entire team in one offseason. They got DJ Moore the wide receiver, they invested in the offensive line. That demon's still gonna be spotty. I like Green Bay in that spot. And what was my record last year? To Monsey betting road dogs?
You were twenty You were twenty five fourteen and one.
Twenty So I was sixty two and a half percent against the spread betting road dogs. And actually a little higher if you include the tie as a half win. All right, next one.
Uh so you've got Buffalo minus two and a half at the Jets.
Yeah, I I was the first part.
I was the only let's just be you've got faith in the Bills this year. Your hate for Rogers fueled some love for the Bills.
I love it. So here's the thing. I knew that was gonna be the reaction. Let's just be totally honest here. I was the only person in America correct on the Bills last year, the only one while everybody was saying I was afraid of them. Josh Allen is at worst the second best quarterback in football, maybe the best. The Bills are the best team. They were the Vegas favorite all of it. All year long. I told you that
was a paper tiger. And what happened come the playoffs they needed They survived Skyler Thompson by the skin of their teeth, and then they got their teeth kicked in by Cincinnati. I am now here to tell you the general public has gone too far in the other direction on the Bills. Now. You look around a lot of folks have the Bills missing the playoffs. That's not gonna happen. Now. I don't think they win the division. I think Miami does. I think the but the Bills. So you think yeah, yeah,
and my playoff teams are division winners. Kansas in the AFC, Kansas City, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, Miami, and my wild cards are Buffalo, Cincinnati and the Chargers. With the Jets and the Ravens Broncos missing the playoffs, the Patriots as well. Obviously, the Bills are better than the Jets. I understand that they're the Jets have home field here, but I am laying less than a field goal, so I just there's there's very It's gonna be very hard for the Bills to
win and not cover. So while I don't love road favorites less than a field goal, I feel better about and the Bills are better and the Jets. I'm telling you right now, man on the Jets, Demonsey, here's what's gonna happen. The Jets are gonna lose on Monday Night Football.
Six days later, they're gonna go to Dallas, and that Dallas defensive front is gonna sack Aaron Rodgers a half dozen times, and immediately panic will set in in New York because they will know in Week four they have the Chiefs and all of a sudden they will be facing a must win Week three game against the Patriots,
which yes, obviously the Jets should win that game. But the Patriots have beaten the Jets fourteen consecutive games, and all of these good vibes, good feelings, all of that is gonna turn in six days between Monday Night and the following Sunday.
Go ahead, something something important of note. He has won nine straight Monday Night football games. He's six one against the spread as a home dog.
And also so that real quick, real quick, Rogers. What that means is Rogers has only been a home dog eight times, which is crazy. Think about that. How long he's been a quarterback and he has only been an underdog at home eight times. And that's not Monday one football. That's his whole career. No, no, no, no. I wonder how many of those were his first year as a starter. He's probably been a dog since that first year, maybe four or five times. That's unbelievab All right, go ahead.
The Bills at fourteen and six are the most profitable team in Week one in the last twenty years.
Okay, that's the type of stat I don't actually care about, but it helps me in this case. I'll take it, all right, last one?
All right, So you've got Pittsburgh plus two and a half versus San fran.
Okay, so this is the lock of the week, the right move. It is also something I'm gonna go ahead and tell you wait to bet. If it moves to two, it doesn't kill you, but it could, especially now that Nick Bosa has signed, if it becomes fully confirmed, he's one hundred percent playing. Maybe it moves to three and you get that super useful extra half point. But that Pittsburgh defense against what could be a gunshy Brock Purty and the Niners in Pittsburgh, Tomlin coaching. I like Pittsburgh.
This is my favorite bet of the week. I think the line is wrong. I think Pittsburgh is as good as San Francisco this year, and they are at home and they're getting points. This is also I don't know if it's on your I'm not you've already submitted your teaser card. I don't know if this is on there.
But this is as perfect of a teaser leg as there is because you would get them through all the key numbers through three, four, six, seven, and eight, and obviously the biggest numbers are three, six and seven before and eight are kind of nice. So I love Pittsburgh here. So Demonse, what do the stats say on.
This Mike tomin is fourteen five and two against the spread in thirteen and eight outright as a home underdog. Uh with TJ with TJ Watt in the game, Steelers were eight and two against against and against.
The straight up. Yeah.
So in prov and the Right Move went six and eleven last year.
I know, I almost thought about getting rid of it this year. I almost thought of just doing just just five picks. But we're gonna have to We're gonna have to redeem ourselves on the right move. All right, are you ready for this teaser? Because I'm ready to hear it, and I'm.
Already I'm wait for you to hear Let me hear it. Yeah, all right, So this this week's teaser.
I don't want to step place it down. I don't want to step on your segment. But before you tell us the teams, tell us how many team and how many points? So like a three teams six six point teaser? Oh it is, okay, that's great. So what is it? Plus one forty plus one? Does it say? Plus yeah, plus one forty? Okay, three team six point teaser plus one forty?
Alright, go, we're teasing the Cincinnati bangles down from two and a half to plus three and a half.
I guess up.
And then we're teasing Tampa Bay plus six up to twelve, and then we're teasing the Raiders plus four up to ten versus the Broncos. Tampa Bay will be playing the Vikings by the way, sorry for not giving the full full layout, and Cincinnati will be playing the Cleveland Browns. Listen, I'm not here to tease through key numbers. I'm here to win the teaser. If this didn't follow your your teaser strategy, I apologize, but trail me on this one. Guys, we're getting money this at the end of the week.
At some point, money will enter your fan Duel account if you place this teaser. Okay, all right, so what don't you like?
Here's the thing, all right, I don't mind the Vegas one, and you are at least getting it through. I think Vegas might way they could win that game. Yep. And you're getting it all the way to ten. And just so everybody knows, if you do a three team teaser and a one leg pushes like let's say Vegas loses by ten, it just reduces your teaser to a two
team teaser. So like, let's say you were to get Cincinnati and Tampa correct demanse and Vegas were to lose by ten, then instead of being a three teamer at plus one forty, it would turn into a two teamer at minus one thirty. But you still win, so that one. I don't mind Tampa. I actually like I don't know if it's you know, ideal value, but I actually like it. Since cinnatataty it gets shippy. I have a lot of trepidation. I have a lot of trepidation on it. You're teasing
through the zero. You are only getting one key number. I guess my point is this demonse just real quick, let's just cause it feels to me like you added the Bengals because you needed another leg. Because here's what, here's here's my opinion on it. Right now, it's Cincinnati minus two and a half. You are paying, you are buying those six points. You think the only.
Way I just think that Cincinnati is going to win the game, right.
No, I understand that, But that my point would be, you are what you are. No if they win by anything, you win anyway. The the you think Cincinnati is gonna win and you're taking them from minus two and a half plus three and a half. The only way you got value there is if the game either ends with the Browns winning by one, two or three it being a tie, or Cincinnati winning by one or two. Otherwise you'd have been better off just betting Cincinnati minus two and a half. But again, it's your teaser.
Hey, I was just about to say it definitely says Demons's teaser up there. We don't need to, but no, I value that. I will say that that was the one that I was the most like shoddy about. Uh, but it was the first one that I picked in the teaser though, Like, but it's.
Okay, I'm good with it. You do know, and I'm not trying to encourage this.
Wait wait, Joe Burrow is playing. He's playing Joe Burrows, He's playing.
You do know that there are seven ten and thirteen point teasers as well, right, I know that you go up, but then you it's less money you exactly, no, no, no, And the the every ten point teaser that's ever been placed looks like how can it lose? Like, how is it possible that this possibly loses? Okay, I'm going to so Here's what we're going to do. As part of this. I'm going to give each of these teasers a sharp
square grade. And then in addition to seeing how profitable you are at the end of the year, we're gonna see how much the wins and losses correlate with my grade. Okay, So I am going to give this a grade of a B minus. Vegas is solid, Tampa's not bad, and the fact that you are teasing the dog I like a lot. Cincinnati brings the grade down. If you're in place of Cincinnati, you had Pittsburgh plus eight and a half. This might be an a teaser, but you know what,
I'm actually pretty proud of you. All right, what's the offer this week? All right? Return of the offer? Man.
This is where I coick up a long shot bet and you decide if it's fun or not, or if you're a fun or not.
Should I say the Chiefs to.
Score two plus touchdowns in every single regular season game this year at plus five hundred?
Do you accept? All right? So that is one of the yes. I accept. Then I accept it's a totally square bet, but I accept it's so Fan Duel has this version this type of bet for every team. The Chiefs to score one plus touchdown in every game this year is minus two hundred, which is there. They're saying, it's almost not a guarantee of close to it. What I find hilarious is this. The Chiefs to score at least two touchdowns in every game is five to one.
The Cardinals to score at least one touchdown in every game is six and a half to one. So they're like, and they have this for every team. But yes, I actually like that offer. That's a smart offer. And last year that offer would have paid that wait, well you know what, No, wouldn't have because the Colts game. I think the Chiefs only scored one touchdown.
Go ahead, funny stat. Did the offer hit more than the right move last year? I think that like might be a thing.
Oh yeah, I'm pretty sure it did. It did? All right, quick break? We answer, Oh, I should have been telling you guys this, gosh darn it. Leave your bets in the chat and I'll tell you if I think they're sharper square. We're doing that. Next quick break right back? What's right? All right, sharper square time Now as you guys send in some bets. You've been making, and you know, I'll tell you, Oh, I look, that's a Funny's good, that's a good graphic. Our YouTube audience is really in
for a treat today. We'll discuss whether or not they're sharper square. All right. The first one Chad Holland as the Texans plus ten. I mean, it's not a bet I would make, but it's you're obviously on the sharp side. You're it's almost never the sharp side to take a massive favorite. So you're on the sharp side, and it's pretty hard for any individual point spread bet to be super square. The square bets are the more convoluted parlays
or certaintiasers things like that. What demonse, But you like the Ravens minus ten against Houston more than the Texans plus ten? Correct or you don't know?
Yeah, I honestly think Yo minus minus ten minus ten. I'd go with the minus tan rookie quarterback Texan sucked last year.
Yeah. So the reason I mean this is a stay away for me because every once in a while, new head coach, which Texas have Dmiico Ryans over from San Francisco, you know what I mean, they popped just to start the year and sometimes rookie quarterbacks pop early and then come down to earth bit. But I do like the so i'd stay away from it. But I think you're probably on the right side of it. Jay Romig says,
the Bears money line. So here's the thing. Even though I like the Packers in that game, the reason that I would say that is a square bet is this, the Bears are I'm gonna get you the exact The Bears are minus one and a half at essentially minus one oh four or the money line is minus one twenty. So is it worth it to pay sixteen cents of juice to go from minus one oh four to minus one twenty just so you win if the Bears win
by one point? Exactly? So I would say, if you like the Bears, bet a minus one and a half rather than just to win. That way you're getting you know, you're not paying minus one twenty on the juice, You're paying minus one oh four. Like that's to me the
money line there doesn't make a ton of sense. Similarly, on the if you're betting the Packers rather than getting them plus one and a half at minus one twenty, I would just bet them on the money line and The only way that screws you is if the Packers lose by one point exactly. Zach Eisen says, the Chiefs minus four and a half parlayed with their team total over twenty nine and a half. I mean, technically that's a square bet, but I love it. I totally agree.
I think that if the Chiefs are gonna cover, they're gonna do it by scoring a bunch of points. So I don't mind that bet bet at all. Tony and Pacheco anytime touchdown score. So Deman say, this is where I'm gonna just be kind of hypocritical. These are square bets that I love. They're like all fitting my agenda of.
The getting a touchdown. Yeah, well, i'd say those are two of the most likely guys to get the ball in a touchdown situation.
They don't really have much like I agree with you entirely. In fact, let me just see t Ross pay so, oh yeah, justin Ross, what is he to plus four seventy? Oh? All right, Pacheco and Tony parlayed, you get five to one. I mean it's a square bet, but I don't hate it. And then Dylan Demas says, my bet the over on points in every Lions game. Defense isn't stopping anyone Offen
is gonna let it fly shootouts every week. So here's the thing at home that sounds like something our producers or demonse would have said last year, like they're awesome offense, bad defense. Obviously it's an over. Might be exactly something that I said last year, right as if that is inside information, Like guys, I figured it out. Vegas is late to the party on this. The Lions score a lot and they allow a lot, so let's bet the over, folks. The people setting the lines are aware of these things
and set them accordingly. So that is the definition of a square gambling gamblers thinking. And then lastly, Holden Davis as what kind of impact do you think bost the contract round on the Chris Jones negotiations. I don't think it obviously won't help, but I don't think it hurts it much because in the NFL, you negotiate versus other guys of your position, and defensive ends have always made
more than d tackles. But it probably doesn't help because Chris Jones sees Nick Bosa just got five years, one hundred and seventy million and he wants a two year, fully guaranteed, thirty four million dollar contract. The Chiefs have offered a two year, fully guaranteed fifty four point five million dollar contract, and now it's dragging into the season, which is total bummer. All right, that's episode one seventy five, Demanse. How'd this feel? I thought it went great. I thought
it went very well. I felt great about it. I was a little nervous because we're by coastal that like there'd be too much talking over each other, delay or whatever. I if this is as clunky as it ever gets, we are rolling. Your background looks great, You look great. Things are going wonderfully. TV shows on fire, very happy, very excited for football. The Chiefs are gonna roll. We will see you guys on Tuesday as we recap week
one of the NFL and be ready to Monsey. I don't know what your TV setup is like at home, but you might have to do some split screening because you know what's also happening Sunday during the late afternoon football Slade who Men's Final US Open and could have Djokovic al Karez, could have an American man in there? Oh, a tennis corner coming back on Tuesday. Talk to you guys. Then, what's right