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Welcome back in What's Right with Nick Wright Episode one eighty seven. Let's get right into it today because the gambling portion of the show, we need some time, because we need a gambling exorcism. I for six consecutive weeks have either gone two and three or three and two demands, on the other hand, has not hit a teaser since before his sister went off to college. That's a true story. So for all these reasons, we've got to get it together. We simply must get it together and salt in the
gambling wound. For the second time this year. I went two and three on these picks on the podcast, and then the three of the five picks from the podcast that I used on television were the three losers. So for the second time this year, I went zero and three on television after going actually two and three on my actual on my full five picks, because I picked the wrong three. It's a bad spot pack, It's a bad spot man, and we'll get into it. Two of
the losses this week were utterly painful. I was on the right side of the bet, the process was correct, and I got just screwed one of them. I was just outright wrong on two. But I really, the more I think about it, I got four out of five right this week, which does make me feel like I'm turning this thing around. The one, unfortunately, the one that I got dead ass wrong was the one that Demanse then teased, and I got it so wrong it also killed his teaser. It's just it just hasn't you know.
What sometimes makes me feel better when we're in these kind of you know, season mid season gambling swoons is looking at our preseason NFL futures and see how we're doing, how we're looking. Let's do that right now, actually, before we get into the actual show, Okay, let's look at our season win total bets and how we're doing. First one, Bears under seven and a half, and I put we love this bet and all caps at even money. That one is essentially locked in already, right that one, you
can it's almost mathematically locked in. But they're not getting to eight wins Cowboys. If you remember, the total was nine and a half. We then said, instead of doing nine and a half at minus one sixty, let's do ten and a half at plus one point fifteen and take the over. That one right now is obviously far from locked, but is a favorite. The Jags similar situation, we had over nine and a half at minus one forty Instead we did over ten and a half at
plus one forty five. That looks great. The Chiefs over eleven and a half at minus one thirty four. That one is also a huge favorite. The Patriots over seven and a half was a disaster. That one is an outright disaster. The Eagles under eleven and a half is an underdog but is not dead yet given what schedule they have coming up. The forty nine Ers under ten and a half is in real trouble, and the Seahawks over eight and a half right now is a favorite.
So right now we have we're looking like we're going to go either five and three or six and two on our season win totals, so we feel good about that part of it. Our If you remember, we did three long shot division winner bets at plus three hundred to plus five hundred on the Dolphins now the favorite. The Steelers right now in first place, even though they're not the favorite. Oh I'm sorry, a half game back of Baltimore and the falcon and the Packers they're screwed,
so that one looks good. A Jags Chiefs two unit bet for them both to win their division that could that looks great. I'm feeling better already. I really am already feeling better.
What that bron party has performed way better than you thought he was going to.
Why Because I had the Niners under.
Ten then ten and a half, yeah, and the Seahawks winning that division well, or that I thought they would.
They would suffer multiple injuries because of the style of football they play like they do every single year, and that, unfortunately might have started this past week. But all right, I feel better. I feel like we've got the gambling juju flowing in the right direction. Now, I I it makes me feel like we had our finger on the pulse of the season. We've just gotten unlucky, as we will discuss. We've had a few bad picks, but a lot of bad luck. We'll get into all that in
the B block. If this sounds like what the kids call cope, it might be. But we're going five to oh this week. All right, here's what missed the cut in today's show. Christian McCaffrey thankfully avoids major injury. Parsons and Hill are interested in flag football at the Olympics, and shout out. Speaking of winning bets, shout out to Las Vegas Aces and my season long futures bet on the Aces winning the title. They could have set that thing at minus four hundred and I would have bet it.
The Ace has won the championship last night with two of their starters out here in New York City. The Ace is one of the best WNBA teams ever. I mean, the Liberty is a damn good team and they were not in the Aces League. Over the course of this series, the Ace is winning four. All right, let's get to tonight's game, demanse.
All right, So The Jags are playing the Saints tonight, and Trevor's not looking clear if he's gonna play or not. I've heard that there was speculation that he wasn't gonna play, but it seems like it.
Yeah, he's gonna be a game time decision. YEP, game time decision. You've been for the game.
Yeah, you've been super high on Trevor Lawrence for I don't know how long he's been. Not good, not terrible. He's got three inchred passing yards, eight touchdowns, six turnovers so far four His four and two record can't matter. If Brock parties, five and one record doesn't matter. So are you still going to defend this guy off of stuff that he's done in like middle school and pee weee football in his high school career?
What do you people see? Hold on? I gotta ask you an honest question, Deman say, is this actually how you feel? Or the producers just trying to set you up to try to needle me and get under my skin because they think the podcast is better when I'm angry? Do you are you? Are you a Trevor Lawrence skeptic?
I'm not a Trevor Lawrence skeptic? But I do think that, like the whole pedigree thing that you're saying with the Bronx, a little bit of this is just coming from the brock Party argument. But Okay, well we'll get to don't think stuff.
Okay, well, no, we'll get to the We'll get to the brock Party stuff in a moment. So Trevor has done one thing poorly this year. He fumbles too much. That is undeniable, and it was a problem for him last year.
Last year.
He needs to do he needs to do better. When it's so with the six turnovers, he has three interceptions, but he has lost three fumbles. He has a couple other fumbles he didn't lose that must be cleaned up. But the fact of the matter is that everything I've said about Trevor is correct. They're four and two, with one of those losses coming to the Chiefs. They beat the Bills on a neutral site. Trevor has been, aside from the Chiefs game, either good or very good in
every single game this year. And the the idea of well, if you don't care about Brock Party's five and one record, why would you care about Trevor Lawrence's four and two record? Is I care about. When I look at a team's record, I ask myself do they have the talent commensurate with that level of success. If they have a lot of talent and they're underachieving, then I look to say, okay, well, who are the reasons? Is it coaching? Is one of
their star players not producing? Is it just terrible quarterback play? What is it? And if they have a better record than their talent would suggest, then I say who is carrying the load for the Jags? The answer is Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etsy and are carrying the load ATSI end's been excellent. Trevor has been crushing on third and longs all year. Now I wish he wasn't in so many third and lungs, but to already have swept the season series with the Colts, who seemingly are your biggest
competition for the division. All of a sudden, that Houston Texans loss, that everyone was killed him for now he didn't play great, and that he played okay in that game, but the team obviously played terribly and Trevor wasn't great. That loss doesn't look as awful as it once did because the Texans are not an awful team. Now, I don't think the Texans are some great team, but the Texans are a legit team. Here are the facts, whether
people want to acknowledge it or not. Trevor Lawrence is since last since last November first, so we are now talking about almost a full calendar year. Is what is he thirteen? And I'm gonna get it exactly right. I apologize. He's twelve and four and three of those losses came to the Chiefs, so or twelve. I'm sorry, twelve and five and three of those losses came to the Chiefs.
So yeah, the Jags they can't beat the Chiefs. Trevor's been excellent, and I every the I want folks to remember the actual because people like moving the goalposts on this, so I want people to understand what it was. The Jacksonville Jaguars in twenty twenty one, with Trevor and his rookie year, went three and fourteen and had the first pick of the draft. They were the worst team in the NFL. Last year they started two and six. Okay,
started two and six. I never lost faith. Since then, since starting two and six, they have lost four to is it four?
Right?
One? Two? Three five games, three to the Chiefs, one to Detroit and then the bad loss to the Texans. They have won. Let me make sure I've write seven eight twelve games, so they're twelve and four. Twelve and five is the record, like I said, And Trevor's been excellent, and so yes, you know how you can believe real quick that a guy who in the NFL up to that point of his career had a five and twenty
record through his first twenty five games. You know why you can believe in that guy and be proven correct pedigree, Yes, it matters. The guy was five and twenty his first twenty five starts. But if you watch the games and if you're familiar with him as a player, then you're like, oh, he's going to get it right. He did get it right. So there it is. Go ahead. Do you have follow up?
So with what you're saying, how Trevor, Trevor, Lawrence and Travis hits he and are carrying the load, they should definitely lose night than without Trevor. If he's not playing correct.
Well, if they listen, if they have started CJ. Bethard, they're in dire shape. What I will say is I am very curious because the Saints are down both starting tackles and one backup tackle. So in order for the Jags to win tonight if Trevor doesn't play, it honestly has to be like a seventeen to thirteen win. It has to happen because the Saints can't protect Derek Carr, and the Saints often struggles even when they can protect Carr. But, yeah, I believe in the Jags tonight because I believe Trevor
is gonna gut through it and play. It's an important game and then you get ten days off. But the Yeah, I do not think the offense is going to look good without Trevor Lawrence if he doesn't play tonight against the New Orleans Saints next.
Yeah, I mean that makes sense. All right, So your Chiefs had the chance to take a sizeable lead in the AFC West, but the Chargers are desperate and have had success in Arrowhead before. What's more troubling the hungry Chargers of the fact that your Chiefs have not beaten a decent team yet.
Well, you play who's on the schedule. I mean, they lost the Lions in Week one. I don't know what people want them to. Do you know what I mean post that other than beat everyone, not trail for a single second in the second half in the following five games, go ahead, demnse.
It does just look strange. It's a little fishy that, like the best team that they've played, they lost to.
Well. Listen, if people want to have the take that the Chiefs aren't any good, they should have that take. I think that that's an interesting one. I wouldn't necessarily go public with it, but you just said it on a very popular podcast. Here's the thing that I'll tell you about this game, for sure. This game scares the hell out of me. The Chargers season is over with a loss. And the Chargers never beat I shouldn't say never rarely beat the Chiefs, but it's always close every
time they play. It's a three point game, and the Chargers. If the Chiefs win this game, they win the division. The division is just over midway through October, and the Chargers know that, and the Chargers coach is coaching for his job potentially, and so I don't feel great about this spot. I don't think the Chiefs are going to blow them out because they never blow the Chargers out.
And now Herbert has beaten the Chiefs twice, but it should be noted one of those games was the final week of the year when the Chiefs rested their starters. Mahomes didn't play, so I do kind of throw that one out. But the first game of Trevor of sorry, of Herbert's career, the game that he came in because the team doctor stabbed Tyrod Taylor and he didn't think.
You don't know this story to Monseay. They were trying to give Tyrod Taylor a painkilling injection in his ribs and the doctor put the needle in too far and punctured his lung. That's true story, not great, and so all of us yeah, yeah, and so all of a sudden, justin Herbert, week two of his rookie season, had to play in a game he did not think he was gonna have to play, and he came in and played well.
Now they lost that game. But this is the final score since Herbert's been with the Chargers of Chiefs Charger games, and I mean it really goes the Yeah, the final score of Chiefs Chargers games since Herbert's been there. The Chiefs win twenty three to twenty The final week of the year. The game I was talking about, the Chargers win by bunch of the Chiefs arresting their starters. The next year, the Chargers win thirty to twenty four, and then the Chiefs win thirty four to twenty eight. One
score game. Last year, the Chiefs win twenty seven to twenty four. Then the Chiefs win thirty to twenty seven. These are close games, and for Kansas City, this is their only actual losable game of these opening eight weeks post Jacksonville. Oh yeah, by the way, I can't believe. I'll let you get away with that. The Chiefs beat the Jags, who lead the division and right now have are tied for the third best record in the AFC. The Chiefs also beat the Jets, who all of a
sudden people are arguing as a playoff contender. So they have not played great teams yet, but they play all those teams later in the year. So I think the Chiefs win on Sunday. But I'm very anxious about this game, very anxious about this, and because I would feel better about the Chiefs in this spot if the Chargers had one on Monday Night football. But because they lost, and because there're seasons on the brink. I'm anxious about it, all right, what's next?
All right? The Eagles have a shot at redemption after losing to the Jets. They'll just mess it up. But they face off against the red hot Miami Dolphins. So the winner of this game is the team to beat until Kansas City's actual season starts after eight weeks, right.
I mean I think that, And we're gonna talk more about them in a moment. I think right now, the team that should has the strongest argument that they should be considered the team to beat is the Lions. The Lions have the best win of any team in the NFL. They also their only loss is in overtime to a good team in Seattle. And like the every other team, you can go up and down the list. It's yeah, the Niners only loss is a Clobe loss, but it was to PJ. Walker. The Eagles blew a game, just
gave a game away to the Jets. The Dolphins only losses to a really good team, the Bills, but they got blown out in that game that go out.
I think that was fair to the Niners about how you said they lost to PJ Walker. PJ Walker isn't on defense like they got. So it's not like it's not like the Browns lit them up on offense. The Niners just couldn't. I mean, the Browns are the best, the best defensive football party.
He couldn't handle it, Okay, So I just want I just want to make sure I understand this. When it comes to discussing Niners' losses, it's a team endeavor. And when it comes to discussing Niners wins, brock Perty's five and one is that how we do it. I just want to know. I just want to make sure I understand when the Niners succeed, we must give Brock purty as flowers. When they lose. It's a team sport. Amazing how that works out because the Niners don't have.
A good defense, right you were just like you lost a PJ. As if he lit them up, but he didn't. Like That's all that's the that's the point now making is the defense.
I'm saying, I'm saying a literal fact, you lost the game. The opposing quarterback was PJ. Walker. That's all I'm saying. I'm saying that's a bad loss. I'm saying losing to a fringe playoff team with their backup quarterback is a bad loss, just like the Eagles losing to a fringe Did the Eagles lose to Zach Wilson this week? Yes or no? It's good. Yes they did. They lost to a fringe playoff team, and it's a bad loss. I mean, it just is what it is. Like the here's what
I know. I know that the and again I'm not killing the Niners here. I'm trying to support the Detroit Lions, who have no bad losses. Defense is better than I thought it would be. Golf has been better on the road than I thought he would be. They have had If you look demands at the Lions schedule, this is okay. So they play the Ravens obviously this weekend, and I know we're going to talk about that game in a moment.
I'm kind of it. Yeah. So, so the Lions after playing the Ravens, play one game the rest of the way against a team that currently has a winning record. They have the the the Lions after the Ravens. Here's their schedule Raiders, Chargers, Bears, Packers, Saints, Bears, Broncos, Vikings, Cowboys, Vikings and by the time they're playing the Vikings. The Vikings are probably playing a young quarterback. They're you know what I mean, they're probably in the in full on
tank mode. Here's the The Lions could lose all of their tough games. Yeah, they get the Broncos. They the Lions could lose all of their tough games left and go fourteen and three. I mean they have one, two, three, four five. They have five games left against current one win teams. Their most difficult their five most difficult games are as follows at the Ravens, at the Cowboys, and then the next most difficult games they have are at the Chargers, home for the Raiders, and at the Saints.
So the point I'm making is the Lions are very very well positioned to be the one seed right now. You can get them. You know what, let's make that bet right now. You can get the Lions to be the one seed at I believe it's plus four forty, Yeah, plus four forty. I'm looking at it right now. I think that's a hell of a bet. You you want a piece of that, Demanse.
I think that's an awesome bet.
Yeah, you think that's an awesome bet. Okay, all right, We're gonna do that. Just I'm gonna do that. During the commercial break, Oh my goodness, the the producers are telling me that we just stepped all over the offer at the end of the show. But guess what, we're accepting the offer. I try not to even read the offer beforehand because I want to be surprised by it. But I guess that's gonna be the offer at the end of the show. Now, Dolphin's Eagles, because we spent
that whole time talking about the Lions. By you know what, let's just finish up the Lions thing here. I apologize I kind of screwed up the rundown, but it is what it is, is good content. Who do you like this week? In demonse? The Lions are the Ravens.
I like it, Like yeah, I said, I like the Ravens, But like you said, with the Chiefs, I am pretty nervous about it. I don't think that it's it's not gonna be sweet. I think it's gonna be a pretty good game.
I think it'll be a great game. Here is the concern. The argument against us betting the Lions to be the one seed right now is if you think they're gonna lose to the Ravens. The number will be better on Monday. But if they beat the Ravens, the number is gonna be so much worse. I think it's worth betting raz Yeah, because if they beat the Ravens, everyone is gonna take note of the fact that they're gonna be favored in almost all of their remaining games until they play Dallas.
All right, now, I was asked about Dolphins Eagles. This is a wildly important game for Philly. Here's the thing about the Eagles that folks I will start to discuss. If they lose this game to Miami, their next seven are This is the opposite of the Lions situation at the Commanders who beat them last year, and then Dallas at Kansas City, Buffalo, San Francisco, at Dallas at Seattle.
If they lose to the Dolphins, this five and zero can very very quickly turn into seven and five like with a lot, and no one would be shocked by it. Like the at Commanders, they should be able to just power bomb Sam Howell into the center of the Earth multiple times because they can't protect Sam Howel. They have a great pass rush. Home for the Cowboys is a coin flip game at the Chiefs, they're a dog. Home for the Bills is a coin flip game. Home for the Niners is a coin flip game at the Cowboys
as a coin flip game at the Seahawks. They're a slight favorite. Slight favorite. But that's five coin flip games in a row right after this coin flip game against Miami. The question here is going to be the determining factor in Eagles Dolphins. The Eagles back end can not hold up against Miami's passing attack. Can Miami's offensive line hold
up against the Eagles pass rush? Because the one time Miami hasn't looked like the best offense we've ever seen was the Bills game when the Bills got after them and the Bills sacked to a That's the only time all year where it's been like, Okay, this Miami team is there's a way to defend them now? Yeah, I don't think. And by the way, Tua has been sacked six times all year. Four of them were in that Bills game. So that is the question of this football game. If Miami can find a way to get to a
time they will shred this Eagle secondary. But if Jalen Carter and friends can get to Tua. This is a scary game for Miami, A legit scary game for Miami. All right, since we did schedules, I want to ask you one other question. The in regards to the Niners, you're all of a sudden newly beloved Niners because we were discussing about how cmac's injury is not that significant given the deep down you know brought Perdy will turn
into a pumpkin without Christian McCaffrey. Would you be uber cautious with Christian McCaffrey and his return, not only like to make sure he's one hundred percent healthy, but to want him as fresh as possible for the end of the season, Like would you treat that? Because if I'm the Niners, I feel like more important, even than seeding, is Christian McCaffrey being healthy at the end of the
year and the added bonus of getting Brock party. Some reps under less than ideal circumstances, So if something does happen at the end of the year, he's more used to it and doesn't look like how he looked, you know, And I understand it was raining in a little chilly in Cleveland, but in that game this past week, and under less than ideal circumstances, I would be super conservative with Christian McCaffery. Your thoughts on that.
I think that makes a lot of sense. Actually, get party some extra practice before postseason comes. Christian McCaffrey's obviously your best offensive weapon. One might argue, Yeah, yeah, No, I think that makes a lot of sense.
The flip side is this, Christian McCaffery has like a sneaky outside chance at winning league MVP, so he might want to get back in there as soon as possible. But for a guy who's dealt with as many injuries as he's dealt with, I think that that's the advice I would give Kyle Shanahan. All Right, we're gonna take a quick break, do our gambling show and bet the Lions to win to be the number one seed. Do it all next, What's right?
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All right, welcome back in what's right with Nick? Right, Demanse? I just text you the bet slip. You're in for ten percent of it, all right, so tell her and you get the text. Yeah, well, it's not a free roll. I mean, I assume you're gonna, you know, cash at me or something if it doesn't hit. But for the time it can be a free roll. No, I'm kidding. You can just have ten percent, but uh, the go ahead.
No, I got you. I'll get I'll definitely make I'll fill your pockets on that one. I appreciate you. I know nothing.
You're fine. But by the way, I can't see Demanse anymore right now, So if we can get that, there we go. Now I can see him. No, we can just square up at the end of the year. Right now. Consider it a loan, just a loan because it's gonna win. So rather than you have to send me ten percent, then I send you that back plus the you know, when it wins. That's a Lions plus four forty to be the one seed with that schedule left. Again, I
don't think they are. I do not. I'm not yet ready to say I think they're, you know, the cream of the crop of the NFC. But they do have the best resume and they do have the easiest path. Now, is there a little bit of me that feels because the Lions are such a snake bit en franchise, this does kind of feel like a team that goes fourteen and three is flying high, gets the bye, and then gets banked in their first playoff game. Right now, it does kind of feel like that they get the no.
For us, that wouldn't matter at all. For Lions fans, it would matter a lot. All right, let's show last week, and I like the process of last week. I gotta tell you last week. So let's go through the winners and then the losers. Okay, Cleveland, I told you all week the hot team. I said that the Niners could lose outright, and I was getting the seven points. I said that every week this year, the hot team has lost Week one, the defending champion Chiefs get picked off.
Week two, the Lions. Everyone's loving on them because they beat the Chiefs. They lose in overtime. Week three, the Cowboys are going to the super Bowl. They've won seventy to ten their first two weeks of the year. They lose to the Cardinals. Week four, the Dolphins had just scored seventy points. It's the greatest offense ever. They lose to the Bills. Week five, the Bills are back. They had just beaten the Dolphins. They lose to the Jags. Week six, Brock parties the MVP. The Niners are great.
They lose to Cleveland and PJ. Walker, here's a problem for this week. That team this week doesn't exist. It doesn't exists.
The Lions.
Well, here's the problem on that, and then I'll get to these other picks in a moment. The Lions are are underdogs this week, so that you know what I mean, Like they're playing at Baltimore. No one is saying like, oh and so, and Cleveland is in such a weird spot because Deshaun didn't even practice yesterday, Like nobody knows what's going on with their quarterback situation. And I don't think people are anointing the Lions. I think there are
I'm sorry the Browns. I think they're anointing the Browns defense. But right now there is that team. There isn't really this week that team of the week go ahead.
Oh no, no, I was just I was gonna say that. I was just agreeing that there's uncertainty in the Browns and what.
They there's uncertainty. Yeah. And then because the Niners lost, the Eagles loss, the Chiefs didn't play. They played on Thursday, but they weren't overly impressive. The Bills won but didn't look good. There isn't really a team that is right now at the top of everyone's power rankings, if you will. But I said I like Cleveland plus seven. I also said I thought Deshaun was gonna play. He didn't play.
That line moved to ten. Cleveland wins outright. I also got Dallas laying two and a half against the Chargers, and I sat on Thursday at three and a half. I don't love it. At two and a half, I love it. Dallas wins by a field goal. So the process behind both of those was sound. Now let's talk
about the losing bets. Seattle plus three at Cincinnati, Seattle nearly doubled them up in yardage, demanse and four times in the second half, had the ball inside the ten and came away with three total points, threw a pick, had two turnover on downs. I just needed one of those to be a field goal or for Gino to come through at the end for the win. But and they cover the three. Instead, they lose by four. Go ahead.
You gotta stop bending against the Bengals.
Many They're off this week, so I don't have the opportunity. But Seattle plus three, the process was right. We were on the right side. It took a lot of awful luck, and they still lose by They don't you know they lose by four. We had them plus three New England plus the Raiders. Pardon me here, but you gotta be kidding me. They're down two with the ball and Mac
Jones gets safety. He gets safety. I sent out a tweet when they got the ball down two that if this game ends with a Mac Jones pick six, I'm gonna lose my mind. Instead, it was more painful than that. Instead of the pick six, it was just the predictable Mac Jones, no pocket awareness. Standing in the end, Max crossb becomes ripping around the right side. Safety, lose by four at least on here's the thing that made that
so much, so much worse than a pick six. Even let's just say Demonse, because the Patriots are down two, I'm catching three. Let's just say that on the first play of that possession, with two minutes left, he throws a pick six. Guess what then happens? Patriots down nine, with the ball with two minutes and the Raiders backing off. I'm still alive there. I don't like it, but I'm alive if they just if he anything other than a safety, I'm alive. But a safety is two points and the
other team gets the ball, so it's just over. It's just so much worse than anything. And then I was wrong on Tampa. There's no listen. I said Tampa plus three and a half, they wouldn't have covered thirteen and a half. I was just wrong on Tampa. So but I feel good about the process last week. So that's where we're at for last week. We've been two and three or three and two every single week this year, which puts our record at thirteen and seventeen, which is pathetic.
It's just utterly pathetic. I don't feel good about it, but I feel good about this week's picks. Let's get right to them. What's the first pay for?
First off, you got Jacksonville plus one and a half at New Orleans. I've given everything that we've talked about. That's that's what I figured, right.
Yeah, if Trevor's not playing, then if Trevor's not playing, then at least I'm getting points against the Dennis Allen coach team on short rest without without three of their best offensive linemen. Dennis Allen teams, by the way, are one and seven straight up on short rest.
Oh, hold on, and yeah, I think you can get the Jags at plus two now or.
Plus and now two. Well, that means the market is concerned Trevor's not playing, which actually like makes me like this a little bit less. But you know what, We'll stick with it. We'll stick with it. I think Trevor's gonna gut through it. I think Trevor's gonna play. They're gonna have a very conservative game plan. We're taking the Jags plus two and a half at New Orleans. Again. The Saints injury report is brutal on their offensive line.
So the Saints uh are without Ryan Ramcheck, they are without land and Young they are let me see, there's another offensive lineman who they're oh, James Hurst. They're without three offensive linemen already ruled out for today's game. Trevor is listed as questionable, not not even as doubtful. So we're gonna hold out hope that he's able to play. Now the and Brandon Shirf is also listed as questionable. I think he's gonna play. I do not think the
Saints are good. The Saints have a good defense, they don't have a good offense. And the Jags if Jade, if Josh Allen Can and former number one overall pick Trayvon Walker, who has not yet lived up to that draft status, they can harass Derek Carr knock him around. We'll take the Jags plus two and a half. Now, all right?
Next, all right, you got Las Vegas minus three at Chicago.
Okay, this is very simple. I I understand the Raiders are probably not gonna have Jimmy g and they it's either Brian Hoyer who Brian Hoyer. So this is gonna sound like I'm talking against my own bets. But demons, when do you think is the last time Brian Hoyer won a game as a starter. Let's give it a guess how long it's been.
Wasn't there? Is that the same Hoyer that I'm thinking about?
Like?
Is he the relevant? I don't know, it's probably been a while because I haven't heard, like is he? Is he older?
He's old? He's thirty eight, he's old, gentleman. So Brian Moyer hasn't won a game as a starter since twenty sixteen, He's lost. If we're you know, since twenty sixteen, he's zero to nine as a starter. And even if we just throw in twenty sixteen, then he's just one in thirteen and his last fourteen starts, which is why they might not start him this week. They might start Aid and O'Connell. Okay, so you might be saying, Nick, why
would you lay points in this setting? And the answer is because the Bears are starting a dude from a place called Shepherd College named Tyson Badgeant, and I'm just going to fade him this way. I'm not gonna have many opportunities to bet against Tyson Badgint. I'm I'm only laying three points. It's as simple as that. I mean, this guy again, you you know I care about pedigree when your college career is at Shepherd College. I understand he uh he set records there. I get all of it.
But let me see, Tyson does he even have a rivals page? Tyson badging is right now. If you go to rivals, I mean he's he's unranked, zero star and then he wait for a that's what he was Shepherd College. Let me just go to Shepherd College for a moment. I mean, it was an inn ai A school for a while, then it was D two. I just can't.
Somebody is like the quarterbacks and their names. With their names, you can kind of tell what they're gonna be. I mean, I know it's really stupid, but Tyson badging is right in line.
I mean, I mean, Sheppard College has twenty seven hundred students total. That's where he played football at. What are you talking? Are you talking to me? What are you talking about?
No? No, no, I'm sorry.
You're right, you're you're trying to talk to the producers. But it was into the microphone. I think the yeah, no, the bear. So it's it's it's Raiders at Bears. I'm gonna lay the three points the uh against Chicago, And yes, I understand the Bears had PJ. Walker and they cut him because they liked Tyson Badgint. Our buddy Mark Carmon during training camp, who covers the Bears, said he thought Tyson Badgint might be better than justin fields, but he
was afraid to say that publicly. I'm telling you right now, I'm betting against Tyson Badgert. It's just that simple. It's a bat. It's a broken offense with not enough skill position guys, I'm betting against him. I'm only laying three points.
The process there is this could be a Nate Peterman situation where the if you don't remember Demonsey, people got mad at the Bills of like six years ago before they got Josh Allen because they were like a decent team and Tyrod Taylor was playing decent and they had just been to the playoffs, and they were like, you know what, We're gonna turn the page to Nathan Peterman and people were like, you've got to be kidding me.
They're like, no, we're gonna do it, and all the like. Basically, universally in the football media, we were like, uh, Nathan Peterman's not an NFL player, and they're like, no, trust us, And so they let him start against the Chargers. And in that game, he completed the ball six times to his team and completed the ball five times to the Chargers. He threw five picks. It was six to fourteen, and it was just it was kind of just noticing the
Nathan Peterman game. By the way, Nathan Peterman, you might be like, hey, how did that end up working out for him? Because somehow he is still in the NFL. And the answer to that is in his NFL career, he currently sits at four touchdowns thirteen interceptions. And again you might be saying, why is that a relevant piece of information? And the answer that that's irrelevant pieces of information is guess who's backing up Tyson Badgitt this weekend?
Nathan Peterman. So I am betting against the Chicago Bears, that's the answer. I am Bettingdownie, Yes he does. We have a situation where the starting quarterback is a kid from Shepherd and the backup is one of the worst players in NFL history. I'm betting on the Raiders, even though their backup is a guy who has not won a game since Kaepernick was a starting quarterback. That's the citest. That's what this game is. This is how you break
bad gambling streaks. Is it's your you're It's a Aid and O'connell'brian Hoyer versus Tyson Badger and Nathan Peterman tag team match. What is the total in this game? I don't bet totals, but god, the total in this What do you think the over under in that game is?
Demanse thirty six.
Thirty seven and a half, thirty seven and a half. All right? Next?
All right? We got Buffalo minus eight and a half at New England.
Yeah, I mean Buffalo just blows out the Patriots.
Is this is a crazy one?
Why do you say that? Because you think it should.
Makes a lot of points and like the a lot of Belichick. Obviously, I don't think Belichick is ever gonna be willing to just throw games. He's not trying to tank.
I don't He's not trying to tank, but he was trying to win. He got beat thirty four nothing by the Saints. Like that's the problem. The problem for the Patriots, which is your correct They're not trying to tank, and they're terrible. They got beat thirty four to nothing by the Saints, thirty eight to three by the Cowboys. The Raiders are are again not an overwhelming football team. The
Patriots were totally desperate. They lost to the Patriots. And listen, the Patriots have the Bills and the Dolphins the next two weeks. They've They've got no talent on offense. Their best two defensive players are injured. I just and Josh Allen. What he's done against the Patriots is just dominate them over the last few years. Let me let me give it to you. Last year against New England, they won by eight in the final game of the year, and
then earlier in the year they won by fourteen. That the previous year, he played them three times, once in the playoffs, beat them by thirty once in the regular season in that wind game. That one, I don't give it. That was the one where the Patriots won fourteen to ten and through three passes, because the wins were like seventy miles an hour, and then beat them by twelve the other time the year before beat the Patriots by
twenty nine and by three. I just think the Bill If I know anything about Buffalo, it's after looking shaky, they then look dominant. This is the week for them to look dominant.
Go ahead, Yeah, I mean just the same thing. They They're coming off of the win, but they beat the Giants by five. So like, I just.
Feel like, what do we say about the Bills Dolphins eight and a half? Damn rollercoaster? Yeah, yes, but this is who they are. They score sixteen against the Jets, then thirty eight, thirty seven, forty two against Raiders, Commanders Dolphins, then twenty against the Jags, fourteen against the Giants. They're gonna here's the thing. To cover eight and a half against New England, you just need twenty four four. Like, New England's not getting to seventeen points against the Bills defense,
They're not. No. I like Buffalo minus the eight and a half.
Next, Pittsburgh plus three and a half at the Rams.
Yeah, So it's the Steelers after a bye. It's the Steelers as a dog. It's all of the Mike Tomlin stuff. He's fifty six thirty one and four against the spread as a dog. It's the best in the league over the last twenty years. The Steelers are fourteen and five straight up after a bye under Tomlin. That's not quite Andy Reid, but it's damn close. And McVeigh is right at five hundred against the spread when he's outside of his own division. It's just I'm getting three and a
half points, and what could be? I don't know that the Rams. The Rams' biggest weakness is their offensive line. Pittsburgh's biggest strength is its pass rush. I think they'll be able to get to Stafford. And even if the Rams are up ten late, Kenny Pickett loves nothing more than doing nothing the entire game and then finally throwing one bomb down the field to Pickens. And so just Pittsburgh catching three and a half off the by there are too many fundamentals that say you gotta bet that.
So I'm going to all right next?
Yeah, Minnesota plus seven versus San Francisco.
Yeah, So I under the producers are saying, here's the reason I shouldn't do it. Every Kirk Cousins national television stat I understand that it's Kirk Cousins on night games. I understand that here's the thing. Ninety two percent of the money is on a road favorite, laying a touchdown.
Ninety two percent is on San Francisco. Also, I do think Brian Flores, who is incredibly sharp, while he doesn't have the personnel that Cleveland, has watched that Cleveland game plan against Purdy and said, I'm you know what, I'm gonna take some of those keys. Furthermore, I do think the Niners are gonna be conservative with the guys coming off injury. Also, Brock Perdy only six career road games,
two and four against the spread. Also, Minnesota is a back door covering juggernaut, and I'm getting a full seven.
The whole world.
Likes the Niners. Here. I'm gonna be four and oh going into this this game Monday Night Football, the Vikings plus seven, and it's gonna be something like the Niners have a thirteen point lead throughout. Kirk Cousins hits Jordan Addison midway through the fourth to put him down six. You're like, oh my god, are they gonna steal it? And then the Niners just run out the clock. I Likennesota plus seven. That's what I'm gad to say.
I like this one less than than the Buffalo one.
Well, yeah, well I get that. I understand that you're part of the ninety two percent of the public that's gonna be all over San Francisco laying the seven. I'm fine with that. I'm gonna I'm gonna have. This is how this week's gonna go. We're gonna have a nice Thursday win to set us up sweep Sunday, and then a nice Monday nighter to go to win the weekend. Jacksonville plus two and a half, Vegas minus three, Buffalo minus eight and a half, Pittsburgh plus three and a half,
Minnesota plus seven. All right, so, demons, what's the teaser we're doing?
Uh So, last week's teaser that we got wrong was a three team seven point teaser. We got the Denver plus seventeen and a half at Kansas City, which it looked like it could have failed at one point. But yeah, yeah, Houston plus eight and a half versus New Orleans and then Tampa Bay plus ten versus Detroit.
That was painful. You and I were texting about it. We just needed one Baker Mayfield drive. He didn't have it. Baker just flatley didn't have it.
So and Baker's awesome coming through this year, but yeah, he's.
Been coming through. But all right, So you've lost four teasers in a row. So you just you've been doing these three team seven pointers this week. You're shaking the snow globe a bit. What are we doing.
Yeah, we're doing a four team ten point teaser at plus one hundred. It's just twenty less than the odds before. All right, So we got Detroit one extra team.
It's twenty it's just twenty cents less odds. But you do have to add an extra team. That's the penalty. That's the penalty for doing a ten point teaser. No, I'm just saying to the audience. So it makes sense, like the ten point teaser, that you have to add an extra team to get even money. Go ahead, fair.
Uh So we got Detroit from Detroit versus Baltimore, teasing Baltimore up to plus thirteen from plus three.
We got to Chargers hold on teasing not to plus thirteen.
Teasing Detroit up. Sorry, but Baltimore's minus three, Detroit from plus three to plus thirteen. And we got the Chargers versus Kansas City teasing the Chargers from five and a half to fifteen and a half. You got Philly versus Miami. We're teasing them up. I don't know what the original I think it's minus two and a half, teasing them up, teasing them up to plus seven and a half. And then we got Tampa Bay versus Atlanta. We're also teasing up to seven and a half from minus two and a half.
Okay, can I try to convince you of something here?
You can try?
Okay, Detroit like it, they're not. I don't think they're getting blown out the Chargers. I'm good with it. I don't think the Chiefs are blowing them out Tampa Bay Philly. I don't think Atlanta has the capability of blowing someone out. Philly can absolutely win this game outright, there's a reason they're the favorite. But if Miami can protect Tua, Miami has been a covering machine. So here is what I would just encourage you. Let me just ask you this
before you lock this in. It's your teaser. You do whatever you want. What could you see more likely being a story on Monday? Holy crap, the Dolphins beat the Eagles by double digits? Is that more likely? Or this? Holy crap? The Patriots beat the Bills.
Uh, the the first one, I mean, definitely the first one.
But you know, if that's the case, I'm just saying, I'm just saying, you.
Can and a half or plus two and a half plus one and a half exactly eight right now, tease.
Buffalo down to where essentially just went just win or lose by a point somehow. I'm just saying, Yeah.
You know what's funny, Buffalo was taken out like I had them in. I had them, I had them in when it was an eight and a half point teaser though, and we teased them down to exactly.
This is eight and a half point teaser. I mean, I understand fand will let you do anything you want, but that's not right.
Hey, So let's all right. So you know what that that makes a lot of sense. And I feel like Philly Miami is a that's a sweat. That's a sweat. Uh, I'll take yeah, I'll tell you. I just got publicly humiliated. You just got me to take this leg out and put this other leg in.
No, No, that's a public humiliation. That's seam work. Yeah, that's teamwork.
And that was with my inside scoop that I got for the teaser that I placed today. Uh. But no, so look, I definitely I definitely want to do that. It makes a lot of sense, like sense.
Yeah, and then by the way it says on the screen, there we go, they fix it. It did say New England, but now it says Buffalo. The Bills are not going to lose to the Patriots. They're just not. Uh. I would honestly be more worried about the Bills if they I know, people will say this is crazy if they had just blown out the Giants, because they do. But they seem angry as they should be about how they
played against the Giants. They seem you know what I mean, they And so I just all right, good, I'm glad and by the way, I I'm you know, who knows. Maybe I screwed you there, but I just Philly Miami to me is not an attractive teaser game because I just could see I could see either team winning, but I also could see either team winning my double digits
because it could just get away from them. The reason that I like like I do like Tampa Bay in Atlanta as a teaser game because that's one of those games I feel like you could tease either way and be in good shape because I don't think either team's gonna blow out the other one that feels like a one score game. Detroit. I have too much respect for it to think they're gonna get blown out by Baltimore.
And while charge is the beautiful leg to be honest, well, because you're.
Getting through all the key numbers. Yes, you're getting all of the important numbers.
I mean it is also the highest number. I didn't notice that.
Well yeah, uh, okay, all right, that that one's not bad at all. All right, what's the offer this week? Guys?
The offer week seven? You know you like the Lions to be the number one seed in the NFC. We've got a nice new offer for you. Detroit and Kansas City parlay to be the number one season their division at plus twelve hundred.
To be the number one seeds in the conference. So I so I love that it's twelve to one. Yeah, I mean the Chiefs are gonna be the one seed that now Miami could be if Miami beats him in Germany. Miami has a leg up on them. I understand that part of it. Uh, but yeah, I'll take that offer. Detroit and Kansas City to be the one seeds.
Oh, sweeten the deal a little bit. What if we parlayed San Francisco's total win under to twelve and a half at plus twenty five sixty five.
You know, I've got enough chips on the anti Niners table right now. I'm not gonna add anymore, so I don't need I don't need to add any more to that. I understand the logic there is, well, if the Niners hit their over, they're gonna be the one seed in the bets dead either way, but that's not necessarily true. Niners could hit their over, be thirteen and four and not be the one seed, because the Lions could be
fourteen and three and be the one seed given their schedule. Also, while I don't think this is gonna happen, there would be nothing sweet if just open your mind up to the possibility. I know I missed her twenty and zero and that one's that's dead obviously. But if the Chiefs were to run the table and then and then see in the Super Bowl the Detroit Lions, the only team that beat them this year, and then beat the Lions to go nineteen and one and have literally beaten everyone
they played because they got a rematch. That's the greatest team of all time. That is the greatest season anyone's had, greater than the seventy two Dolphins.
This is crazy story.
It would be a crazy thing that you lose by one to open the season. And I did say the thing that I tried to sell Wilds and brew on after the Chiefs lost was that they're gonna be the O set Patriots in reverse. The seven Patriots went undefeated until the Super Bowl and then lost. The twenty twenty three Chiefs are gonna lose Week one and then go undefeated. Far way better, way more fun than the O seven Pats. We answer your questions next from the chat. What's right?
All right, DEMANSI let's roll through some of these questions real quick.
Go ahead, Anastasio, Smart Coopolos or Markopolis?
Ye?
Nick, I am still. I am still alive in my survival pool. Want to have picked the Eagles. I feel like everyone is taking the Seahawks, and I think they can lose. What are your thoughts, uh?
I Usually the Seahawks are a popular pick because they're playing Arizona. Obviously they could lose. My thoughts are using the Eagles this week is insanity? Like using the Eagles, you know, the week they're playing the Dolphins is not a good idea. So I, Oh, he's saying he's already used the Eagles previously. Oh, I get what you're saying. Okay, So if you're asking me obviously if they're available, if they're available. I think Buffalo is a very smart bet
this week. And because Buffalo, I understand they have easy games remaining, but they are such an unreliable team. They're easy games are not the same as other teams easy games. I just don't think the Patriots can beat them. I if you want to get really aggressive, you can ride with me on the fading Tyson Badger Nate Peterman and roll with the Raiders this week in a survivor pool.
I understand using a Survivor pick on Aiden O'Connell Brian Hoyer sounds crazy, but I just don't see how the Bears can win that football game, all right.
Next a zsl Nick, Who do you think makes a bigger impact? Frank Clark and Nicole Hardman.
I think McCall is so assuming the Chiefs get both back. They already got McColl back. I think McColl makes a bigger impact in the regular season. Frank makes a bigger impact in the playoffs.
Next Caleb w Ass. If you had to predict a current division leader to miss the playoffs entirely, who would it be?
I mean, right now, the division leader most likely to miss the playoffs entirely, you'd have to say is Tampa. The division leaders are as follows, Miami, Baltimore, Jacksonville, Kansas City, Billy, Detroit, San Francisco, and Tampa. The one most likely to miss the playoffs is Tampa. The other one that I think is on the board. I don't think Jags are on the board to miss the playoffs.
I don't.
I just don't think anyone else in that division is going to be able to get especially with Anthony Richardson now done for the year. The other one is that I would again, of those eight choices, other than Tampa, my biggest concern would be Baltimore, only because every team in that division is legitimate and Baltimore has a history of some tough injuries. You could see Cincinnati getting hot, you know, if Cleveland gets the quarterback situation squared away,
if Pittsburgh just wins through defense and coaching. I but right now, I mean, the Niners are not missing the playoffs. The Eagles are not missing the playoffs. The Lions are not missing the playoffs, the Chiefs, Jags, and Dolphins. I guess the Dolphins would be the next pick if something were to happen to Tua, because the Bills are right there, but Tampa would be the best bet. All right, let's uh, let's go to uh. Let's just go ahead and read the fifth question. Yep, go ahead.
Somebody said, asked, how are you handling your being in college? And any advice for how I can break it? Break it to my parents. I'm choosing a college in Arizona instead of hearing Maryland.
Uh. I mean, your parents just want you to be happy, you know what I mean. Just I think they'll I think they'll be supportive, assuming like that you're doing it for with good reason, and I think you'll be I think you'll be fine. And as far as how am I handling it?
Well?
She owes me a text. I'm actually I text her yesterday and said and and said I had can we talk today? And she hadn't responded to me. It was one of the first days we haven't talked. I wrote her a very nice text. I said, I love and miss you. Scoop, can we catch up tomorrow when you're free? And she just left me on Red? Demase, she just left me on Red. That's tragic, all right? What's the last question?
Producers asked, what else do you know about the Clippers? Hard and rumors? That's a good one.
Well, what I reported that the Clippers could have gotten James Harden for a first round pick one swap in ten Aaron's man and they said no, And that kind of shows the world where James Harden's market is right now, and it's.
Also double down and make it even worse.
Yeah, Harden is now lashing out at the Sixers. I'm gonna try to get more info on that throughout the day, and I think we're gonna talk about that at three o'clock today on First Things First, So people should tune in there. Deman's great work today. We're going five and zero your teasers winning. We'll see you guys on Tuesday. What's right