TNF Preview, Blowouts or Upsets & Nick’s Picks - podcast episode cover

TNF Preview, Blowouts or Upsets & Nick’s Picks

Oct 12, 202356 minEp. 189
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Episode description

On today’s episode, Nick previews the Broncos at Chiefs game, decides if a statement win from the Lions or Seahawks would take them from “good” to “threat”, and discusses what the Panthers could have looked like if they had picked CJ Stroud. Then, Nick recaps his Week 5 picks and makes his Week 6 picks. Later, Damonza presents a new offer. Lastly, Nick and Damoza answer your questions.


5:45 Thursday Night Football Preview 

16:07 Brock Purdy’s Next Test

23:04 Blowout or Upset

28:38 NFC Contenders 

29:29 Tepper Too Involved?

31:24 Nick’s Picks

44:36 Damonza’s Teaser

49:23 The Offer

52:06 Sharp or Square 

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Transcript

Speaker 1

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Speaker 2

Could be too.

Speaker 1

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Speaker 3

Welcome. In episode one eighty five, What's Right with Nick Wright? On a massive Thursday, we have the America gets the gift of not having to wait in extra three days to watch Patrick Mahomes play We've Got Thursday Night Football, where the Chiefs try to continue the most dominant stretch of one team over another team the NFL has seen in fifty years since the seventies. In the NFL, the all time record for consecutive wins over an opponent is twenty.

With a win tonight, it will be sixteen for the Chiefs over the Broncos, and then they play again twelve days later, and then they can get it or eleven days later and they get noise that right, no, no, I'm sorry, nineteen days later, and then they can get it up to seventeen and keep the street going. So we've got that, We've got a gambling show that at this point, I'm really frustrated with I'm frustrated with myself. I'm frustrated with Demanse for not listening to me on

his teasers. I'm frustrated with Vegas. I'm frustrated with everybody, and I'm gonna lash out a bit. But I love the picks this week. I love them, and I liked them last week. I love them this week. There's five of them. The only way to break out of this we go three and two, we go two and three, we go three and two, we go two and three is by having a perfect week. A five in a week, Demonse, And you know what, I'm gonna call it a six in a week because I'm including your teaser in it.

Because last week I told you you teased across the zero. You screwed up. I gave you a bad grade. And what was the only leg of the teaser you lost last week? Demonse?

Speaker 2

The one where I teased through the zero.

Speaker 3

Exactly right, exactly right, so you know, and you know, coincidentally or not coincidentally, all of a sudden, money's a little tight for my guy, Like things are we gotta win some of these bets, pal, We got to win some of these bets. And so that's coming up in the B block. In the C block, you can put in your questions. You also could do put in your bets and have us grade them if they're sharper square.

The best way to determine if they're sharper square is if you put a bed and Demonse likes it at square bet. All right, Demanse, what is what did we miss on today's show? Here's what missed the cut not on the show today. Kirk Cousins says the trade rumor is not worth his time. Yeah, he has no trade clause. He's not gonna ask right before free agency to go in a new system or to a mediocre team and tank his value. He at least is comfortable in Minnesota,

so he's gonna stay there. That's at least my take. Diora chimed in on the group chat, concerned about Kai Jones. Everybody should be concerned about kai Jones. This is he just got released by the Charlotte Hornets. He appears to be going through something. And then whenever one of these stories comes up, I then look and him, like, geez, man,

kai Jones is twenty two years old. He's twenty two years old, got a few million dollars, and is just making some really really poor decisions, it would appear, and I feel for him. Go ahead, demanse, what is the guy?

Speaker 2

What is the guy really done up until this point?

Speaker 4

Like, I know he got on the Instagram live video he's busting a sweat, he was dancing barefoot near his car, But like, is he hurting anybody?

Speaker 2

I'm confused, what's the No, that's.

Speaker 3

Why he's not in jail, but he's got fire from his job.

Speaker 2

No, he is.

Speaker 3

You're allowed to do these things and the authorities aren't gonna arrest you, but you cannot be a public facing person and be just objectively out of your mind on social media. And then also he publicly demanded a trade. He did a bunch of dumb stuff.

Speaker 4

Go ahead, all right, what about that guy that actually got arrested though, And it's like back on the team.

Speaker 3

But yeah, no, that's no, it's fair. But Miles Bridges. Listen, what Miles Bridges did was absolutely terrible and or allegedly did I guess I'm supposed to say, but A he did miss a full year and is now suspended again. And B yeah, if Kai Jones was awesome at basketball, then they'd probably, you know, look the other way on these odd and concerning ig lives. But he's not. But the only team invested in him is the team that's been a first round pick on him. And he torched

that bridge, and so I did. Listen, I just feel I feel badly for the young man. He is making very very bad choices at twenty two years old, like a lot of us did, but they're gonna potentially cost him his career. And in far less serious news, new footage confirms Bigfoot exists is what the producers wrote. At some point, I'm gonna have to have a real talk with our producers fascination with the supernatural with I mean, this is like grainy footage from a train or something

that they're saying confirms Bigfoot exists. I don't know about you, guys. My phone has a pretty high resolution camera. If I thought I was actually seeing Bigfoot. Instead of taking a fully zoomed out video, I might take a single fully zoomed in picture. That's just my take. But what do I know? All right, Deman, say, let's get to the show. What are we starting with?

Speaker 2

All right?

Speaker 4

So the Chiefs obviously facing off against the Broncos and they're struggling defense. So we know the Chiefs can't blow teams out, or they don't have the tendency to blow teams out. But if they can't blow out the Broncos tonight, do you think it's time to make an emergency trade?

Speaker 2

No?

Speaker 3

Okay, Why does no one understand what's going on with the Chiefs except me? So a couple things. One is I keep having to listen on the TV show about how oh the Chiefs. You know, they take teams lightly, or they get out to early leads and take their foot off the gas, which is objectively true. Last year in the Broncos game, they were up twenty seven to nothing and then all of a sudden it was close. This year in the Jets game, they were up seventeen to nothing and then all of a sudden it was close.

Here is the request I have, Can folks stop concern trolling about the Chiefs letting their foot off the gas until they actually lose one of those goddamn games. Yes, you're right, the Chiefs get up big and then they go super conservative and they do things where they don't look Chiefs like, but they don't lose, and there's no margin of victory bonus in the NFL, so it's a nonsense concern. Be like, oh, last year they lost to

the Colts. Yes, they did take the Colts lightly and lose to them, but that wasn't a game they had a huge early lead on. So there's that part of it. Now, as far as make a panic trade, there is if there were, like, let's say the Bucks were as bad as people thought they were going to be. Now, the Bucks are actually good, but let's say the Bucks were in the position the Vikings are in where they're like one and four and things are going poorly and they're

considering doing a selloff. In that circumstance, would I potentially be interested in Mike Evans an instant difference maker at a discount. Sure, I would listen to that. But unless you're getting a player of that caliber, this idea, Oh, bring McCole Hardman back because the Jets can't use him.

Speaker 2

No.

Speaker 3

And one of the things the Chiefs have done really, really well is last year when people thought they needed help in the secondary, instead of going out and buying a rental of the deadline of a veteran corner, they let the young guys play through it. They let the young guys get the snaps and the experience. And you know what that's led to. Arguably right now, the best pair of corners in the NFL are the Kansaity Chiefs. Greek Wollen and the rookie Weatherspoon in Seattle would have

something to say about it. I know there are some other teams that are in the discussion, but especially now that Digs went down, Jalen Ramsey isn't playing right now that you could argue Lugerius Sneed and Trent McDuffie, two guys on rookie contracts, are the best pair of corners in football. So why do I bring that up? If you go out and get trade for the Broncos for Courtland Sutton, what you're doing is steyming the growth of Rashie,

Rice styming the growth of Canarius Tony. Now what I do think the Chiefs need to do on the receiving side of things is maybe they've given sky Moore a lot of opportunities, a lot of snaps, a lot of target well not really that many targets because he can't seem to get open. What I like some of those to go more to Justin Ross or to Rashi Rice. Sure, but the solution is going to come from within now on the Broncos game. Here are just some facts, all right.

Patrick Mahomes is eleven to zero against the Broncos in his career. He's the first game ever the only game he played as a rookie was against the Broncos Week seven, Week eighteen. He won it and has never lost to them. That's first of all. Second of all, things that have happened more recently than the Broncos have beaten the Chiefs. The Broncos have won a Super Bowl, the entirety of Nikola Jokic's NBA career has happened since the Broncos last

beat the Chiefs. We have had two different presidential elections. Barack Obama was the president the last time the Broncos beat the Chiefs. The lebron James has been to four NBA Finals and scored sixteen thousand points since the Broncos beat the Chiefs, and the idea that that streak is going to end today on a short when the Broncos have the worst defense through five weeks in the history of the NFL is utter nonsense and no one actually believe me.

Speaker 4

The question wasn't necessarily about the Broncos. This was kind of about the Chiefs and what they have and given what teams have been doing to the Broncos, if they can't blow them out, what does this say about them for the rest of their season.

Speaker 3

What if the Chiefs don't blow out the Broncos, it is because they are not focused on blowing out the Broncos. What I am trying to explain to the audience is the Chiefs are playing a different game than the vast majority of the league. The Chiefs are using these games right now as sophisticated televised practices, and they are not putting on tape all of what they are going to

need to beat the best teams. Now. They have games remaining home games well, international game against Miami and then home games against Philly, Cincinnati, and Buffalo, and two games in the Division against the Chargers, including one in ten days. Those games, the Chiefs are going to need to be fully buttoned up. Those games, the Chiefs are going to need to know exactly what they have in their receiving corps.

But right now, especially in a game where Kelsey's coming off an injury and I think it snap count will be down, I don't know if the Chiefs are gonna light up the Broncos. I do know they're gonna win. I also want to go go ahead and ask the follow up real quick.

Speaker 4

You said that this could be Russ's last game as a starter for the Broncos. Obviously, if this YEF, that's true, how much will you miss him in the AFC?

Speaker 3

Well, listen, I mean, if as long as the Broncos don't get Caleb Williams, I won't be concerned about them anytime this decade. But I want to say something about Russ because there's a lot of you know, what you're seeing on TV this week and you see it today, is hey, look at Russ's stats, look at mahomes stats. They're similar, and in fact, Russ numerically has been better. This is why it's important if you're gonna talk about football.

To watch football, I know, it's like a wacky take that like, oh, you can't watch all the games, Yeah you can't. You can't. Actually, And here is what Russell Wilson's numbers are good, but here's what is also true. Week one against the Raiders, he was brutal in the second half. They scored three points in the second half and blew a halftime lead and lost seventeen sixteen. Week two against the Commanders, Russ was awesome the opening quarter and a half of that game. Awesome. They got up

twenty one to three. He then had a brutal fumble, a three and out, a three and out, a pick, and all of a sudden the Broncos found themselves trailing by double digits. And then Russ padded the stats with that silly hail berry down ten late and then well the down ten got some garbage time yards and then the hail Mary. Week three, they allowed seventy points. Were not putting anything on him, not blaming him for that.

Week four, he did play well. Also, the biggest play of the game was the strip sack by the Broncos defense on Justin Fields. And Week five against the Jets, he fumbled the game away. They got inside the five yard line, settled for a field goal, inside the five yard line, settled for a field goal, and then down three with plenty of time, trying to drive for the tying or winning score. He got stripped, holding the ball like a loaf of bread and fumbled the game away.

Do not not, you demonse the generic you do not argue to me. Russell Wilson has played well this year. He's played better than last year, and he's not the biggest problem with the Broncos. But he has not been good. And the reason I have argued this could be his last start is Sean Payton is gonna look for a fall guy. The obvious fall guy is his defensive coordinator. The problem is he hired that decordinator a few months ago. That's his decision. If all of a sudden demonsey this.

I'm gonna use our podcast as an example again. This podcast was just an utter disarray, a total failure. I you know what I'd sure rather and even if none of it was Daniel's fault. I didn't hire Daniel, I did hire you. I'd rather blame him and say Daniel screwed it up rather than be like, you know what, Demonse's not doing good because that's a reflection on me. I brought you on. Daniel was already here. He in this instance, Daniel is Russell Wilson. By the way, you,

unfortunately in that example, are Vance Joseph. That's unfair to you. But I'm just saying, in theory, if the podcasts were failing, you would have some security because if you if me saying you have failed as an indictment on me, Sean Payton saying Van Joseph has failed as an indictment on Sean Payton, me saying, ah, what was Blue Doc thinking hiring this dope from Denver? Daniel? Sorry for the alliteration. That's on them, just like Sean Payton's like I didn't

sign Russell Wilson. I didn't trade for Russell Wilson. And by the way, don't you anybody send me emails saying I'm bullying Daniel again. He and I have reconciled. We're friends. Now I'm allowed to make fun of him if I want. Next.

Speaker 4

All right, So the Rock Party goes up and faces against arguably the number one defense in the Cleveland Browns. So when he goes out there and he looks like Prime Brady. Who are you going to give the credit to at the end of the game.

Speaker 3

Didn't I give him credit after the Cowboys game? Did I? Or did I not give him credit? A little bit of party or I gave I gave him a little bit of credit. I gotta see the game. Let me see the game and see how it plays out. This might show up in Knicks picks. I if I were the Niners, I'd be a little nervous about this game. The Browns coming off of by excellent defense, Niners potential letdown spot. I've talked a lot about how the team

of the week is zero to five this year. If we want to say, going into week one, the hot team was the defending Super Bowl champs. They lost Week one. Going into week two, the hot team was the team that had just beaten the defending Super Bowl champs on national television. They lost the Lions did Going into Week three, the hot team was the Allas Cowboys, who had won their first two games seventy to ten. They lost to

the Arizona Cardinals. Going into Week four, the hot team was the Miami Dolphins, who had just scored seventy points they lost to the Buffalo Bills, and going into Week five, the hot team was the Buffalo Bills, who had just beaten the Miami Dolphins by four scores. They lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Going into Week six, the hot team is the San Francisco forty nine ers. Be careful out there in America. That's all I'm saying. Now. Well, if I'm wrong and Purty carves them up, he is then

building the resume I asked him to build. Do it against excellent defenses, do it in adverse circumstances, and with new information I can tweak adjust my opinion. The point that I would like to hammer home on the party stuff other than the Jimmy G. Compson that with Shanahan. All of this the point, as Demonse stares a hole through me, that I think, you know what, I'm gonna do a real test right now, right now, Demonse Brock Purty is approximately the blank best quarterback in football Numerica.

He's okay, there you go, So I am now sorry. I'm gonna build quite the bridge and you'll will end up in the same place.

Speaker 2

You know.

Speaker 3

Laslow Demont's a great, great radio host in Kansas, City's hosted the show for twenty some years. Once upon a time. He's a big uh. He's very very anti gun. He's very he thinks the Second Endment has been misinterpreted. He is very pro gun control. Twenty years ago, maybe he held a debate with a local politician and he asked the local politician this question. He said, should we be able to If the local politician had made the case that the reason the Secondmendment must not be infringed upon

it is because of a tour. You have to be able to fight back against a tyrannical, oppressive government. That's why it was written, That's what it says. And so Laslow asked the question, should you be able as a citizen then to buy a suitcase nuke, to buy an anti aircraft gun, to buy a tank, Because if the argument is he must be able to fight against an oppressive government, your nine millimeter or even your AR fifteen

ain't doing it. They got drones, so should And if your answer is no, you should not be able to get an anti aircraft missile, a suitcase nuke, a tank, then we actually agree that there should be some form of gun control. We just disagree on where it should start like you have it starting you know at you know, military grade large arms. I have it starting at assault rifles.

But we agree there should be some level. And it's a very It was a very smart rhetorical trick he played, but it was also accurate by the way in this specific debate, the politician, once he had him cornered like that, was like, you know what, I changed my mind. You actually should be able to buy a suitcase nuke. You're right, And Laslo was like, well, I guess you've checkmated me. You know what, I have a But okay, so here's why I tell that long story. You agree with me

on brock Party. It's just a question of degree, because brock Party does not have the numbers of something like the twelfth best quarterback. He has the numbers like the best quarterback. He does not have the record of somewhere in the top twelve best quarterback. He is the numbers of the best quarterback by what he has accomplished. By his stats. He is not only the best quarterback in the league hands down, he is through this portion of his career, one of the best quarterbacks in NFL history.

But you even you don't believe that, so we are just arguing about degrees. You are giving downgrading him ten spots ish based on the weapons, the system, Shanahan, all of it, and I'm downgrading him eighteen spots. We're closer than you think, because if someone wants to because he has the number, he has the highest passer rating in NFL history, He's never lost a game. He has an infinite touchdown interception ratio this year because he hasn't thrown

a pick. So if unless folks are arguing, you know what, he might be better than Mahomes, then we're all agree. We all agree. It's a question of how far you want to grade him on a curve. I grade him on a harsher curve. It would appear than everyone other than Steven Ruiz, who has him twenty third in the league. And he's getting asked Brockbird, he's getting asked about it by Peter King, Demandy's grading him on a slightly more generous curve. But still not there's people should be arguing,

he might be the best quarterback we've ever seen. That's what his numbers are. His numbers are, he might be the best quarterback we've ever seen.

Speaker 2

To top ten, I go back to top ten.

Speaker 3

We went from twelve to ten.

Speaker 4

All right, next, all right, there are a bunch of teams with a chance, with chances to bow out. This week you got Kansas City versus Denver, Miami versus Carolina, Philadelphia, Philadelphia versus the Jets, and Buffalo versus the Giants. But with great blowout potential is even greater upset opportunities. The signage game in one of these categories blowout, easy win, close.

Speaker 2

Game, or upset. Start off with Kansas City versus Denver or I guess you do it however you want to do it.

Speaker 3

Yeah, I'll do it in the exact order that it was listed, not by game but by category. Blowout is the Bills Jet the Giants. I think the Bills particularly coming off a loss, and the Giants just being just dead on arrival. This is the exact type of game the Bills win thirty seven to ten. That is their mo o after a bad performance, to look absolutely lights out. So I like the blowout to be Buffalo against the Giants. The easy win, I am going to say Kansas City

versus Denver. I don't know that the Chiefs will blow them out. I am very confident Denver will never have the ball in the fourth quarter with a chance to take the lead. The Chiefs will at a minimum keep them at Bay up seven to ten throughout the game. Close game. I'm going to say this is I honestly think this is probably an easy win as well. But if I have the assign of the category, I'm gonna put Philly in the Jets. And here's why. I The

Jets cannot block Philly's front. They have no chance of blocking Philly's front, and because of that, this could be a disaster for Zach Wilson. However, I also think the Jets defense right now is playing at a high enough level. It's in New York and Philly, much like the Chiefs, has been kind of doing just enough to win that I could see this game being close. Even if they're that they know that they can get they can get

to Zach Wilson at any point. But it's possible this game gets way away from the Jets because Jalen Carter in that Philly front annihilate them. By the way, speaking of Philly Demons, have you looked at their schedule after the Jets game? It is I'm just gonna tell you real quick. Of their next eight games after the Jets game, they are at Washington for one of them. Here are the other seven Miami, Kansas City, Buffalo, San Francisco, Seattle,

and the Cowboys. Twice. Of their next eight games after the Jets, they play seven games against what's the worst team on there, the Cowboys, I guess right now, the Seahawks. They are at Kansas City, at the Cowboys, at the Seahawks, and home for the Dolphins, home for the Cowboys, home

for the Bills, home for the Niners. Just a So, to Philly's credit, they needed to start five to zero because that schedule is I mean, that's about as tough as of an eight game stretch as you And by the way, their one quote easy game unquote is one of the only teams that beat them last year, Washington, a divisional opponent on the road. So Philly needs that spot now to if the last so the last question or the last one there would be, I guess the one upset would be Miami Carolina. To be clear, I

am not betting on that. However, Carolina is not gonna go ozho to seventeen. And if there was a spot, I'm not making the case there's a Carolina's not beating Miami. I'm just not making the case. I don't think any of these four teams lose out right, but I I am interested in if there's all of a sudden a game where Carolina looks competent offen like they it's been a while. And Frank Reich had some quotes essentially kind of confirming that he wanted CJ. Stroud but the owner

made him take Bryce Young. I don't know why he said this publicly, but that's certainly the way people read it. And so I, yeah, I this feels like a very safe Survivor Pool week. Maybe there is a shocker, but Denver can't beat Kansas City, the Jets can't block Philly that there's no way the Bills are losing back to back games with the second one being to the Giants, and that just leaves Caroline against Miami. And I don't see how Caroline is gonna be able to slow down

Miami enough. I just don't. But that would be I guess the one that I had to take a flyer on go ahead.

Speaker 2

So the speed of the Giants. Danny Dimes and.

Speaker 4

The Giants are said to play their fourth primetime game in six weeks, and Daniel Jones is actually unlikely to play right now?

Speaker 3

Yeah, I mean they bought into the giant type and they shouldn't have. I am interested to see if Tyrod Taylor looks better than Daniel Jones. That could be a rough spot for him. All right, next, very rough.

Speaker 4

All right, You've been super high on the Seahawks and Lions, but neither have cracked your top seven in your tiers. Seattle plays a resurgent Bengals and Detroit faces Baker in the Bucks. Would a statement win from either team make them good enough teams to be legit threats?

Speaker 2

Yeah?

Speaker 3

Absolutely, that's a great question either one of these teams. For Seattle, it's just winning the game. For Detroit, if they put it on Tampa when Tampa's coming off a bye, then you have to start to ask yourself, is the third team in the NFC not Dallas? Is it one of these two teams? That would be a fair quest. Like obviously San Francisco and Philly have separated themselves, most people have despite the loss Dallas third, but I think

Detroit or Seattle can make a strong case there. All right, go ahead, last one, all.

Speaker 4

Right, So yeah, Actually just touched up on this a few seconds ago. Head coach Frank w Reich took a shot at Panthers' ownership for being too involved. If you remember back, it seemed like the coaching staff was more infatuated with CJ Stroud before the draft. Do you think David Tepper forced the Panthers to take Bryce Young or for CJ.

Speaker 3

It sure seems like that. And the Frank the VEGA member Vegas was convinced for months that CJ was going number one, and then all of a sudden, the markets flipped and they took Bryce. People thought I was being too mean to Bryce Young. Here's the thing, He's too little. It's just there. It is simple as that. Now CJ has been way better than I thought he would be. His offensive lines banged up, he doesn't have great receivers,

and he's been excellent. And I might owe the Texans in apology because I gave the Texans a hard time because they traded all that draft capital away to get Will Anderson. And I was like, man, you're trading away your own pick next year, which could be a top three pick. They might be an eight win team. Dimiko's done a great job. They've done more with less. CJ's been excellent. The Panthers, on the other hand, traded all

that capital get up to number one. Then it looks like took the quarterback the coach didn't want, and now they might end up trading away the number one pick. Well, I mean, they're definitely trading away their own pick, but it might end up being the number one pick. Could be a cataclysmic line of decisions for the Carolina Panthers.

Don't forget put your questions, comments, or your bets in the YouTube comment section for us to get to in the C block, we give out five and oh a five and oh week coming up next on the Gambling Show, We Do It Next, What's Right?

Speaker 5

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Speaker 3

All Right, I was stalling because I had another two and three week and I am so sick of it. So let's just show you the picks. It started off so well, Jacksonville on the money line plus five and a half against the Bills, then Arizona plus three and alfagant Cincinnati.

Speaker 4

All of a sudden, you gave me an one for a teaser. I told you about that as it was unfolding as well.

Speaker 3

You know what fair point the Rams plus four and a half against Philly Philly had been had they hadn't been blowing people. The Rams needed the game, but I should have known the Rams can't block them, can't stay minus four at Minnesota, never a doubt. And then the one indefensible bet Dallas plus three and a half at San Francisco. Now, I gotta tell you that Dallas game actually saved me. Not the Dallas game, but there was some heartaches saved because you know how I've been on

this hot streak of live betting huge dogs. So I did it again in the Panthers Lions game. So the Panthers down twenty eight to seven, and I bet them plus the Cowboys money line, and so a live bet on the Panthers trailing twenty one and the Cowboys money line. Those just two bets were started. That parlayd was seventy seven to one. Seventy seven to one. Now, the Panthers ended up obviously losing terribly, so the bet was dead. But do you know how extra crushing that Cowboys game

would have been if the Panthers had come back? And I'm like, all right, I just need that, like give me a sweat here. And Dallas is instantly just getting molly wopped in that game. Okay, all right, here's the deal. I like all four of these bets. I'm taking four dogs. I'm taking one tiny favorite who's in a desperate spot and undervalued, and I'm getting great line value on all these games. I'm getting some home dogs, I'm getting key numbers, and for the love of God, I'm gonna go five

and zero. What's the first one? Demonse?

Speaker 2

First?

Speaker 4

When you got Cleveland plus seven versus San fran.

Speaker 3

Okay, so let me explain the logic here. This line was two and a half Sunday night before before Niners Cowboys, it was Cleveland plus two and a half. I'm now getting a full seven. Part of that, I know is because the market's a little spooked that DeShawn might not play. Deshaun's going to play. If DeShawn doesn't play, the team will turn on him. They thought he was gonna play

Week four. He pulled himself out day of then they had a bye, and now if they thought he was healthy enough to play week four, it's now week six. He hasn't hurt himself again, so I believe he's going to play. It's the Niners, the vintage trap spot Sunday Night, huge win, national television. Now you go cross country for a one o'clock game against a rested team that needs the game, with an excellent defense, and I'm getting a full touchdown. I'm I'm all over it. Stefanski is got

a winning record against the spread as an underdog. He's got a terrible record against spread as a favorite. The public, which is on a red hot run right now, is all over the Niners. That's why this line keeps moving. It was it started at two and a half after Sunday Night football.

Speaker 5

It was four.

Speaker 3

It by Tuesday afternoon it was five, and now it's up to seven. I understand part of that is concerned about Deshaun, but it's also because the public can't stop betting the Niners and the Cleveland defense has no one forgetting. No one's scoring, no one's getting into the red zone on them, and so I like Cleveland plus seven. Demonds your thoughts on this one?

Speaker 2

Cleveland plus seven, I mean you don't like it. I don't.

Speaker 3

I can tell you don't like it. Okay, that's fine. You know what, I feel better about it. You are not hot this year. You will be at some point. But I am going to raising confident with the more you dislike these bets. What's the next one?

Speaker 2

You got? Seattle plus three at Cincinnati.

Speaker 3

Seattle's better, They're coming off a bye. Seattle's all of a sudden. With Seattle, we have not seen them as healthy as they are right now. All year. Their offensive linemen have been hurt, They've had a lot of guys down all of a sudden with the bye that you check the latest injury report, and while they had some veteran rest days and they're still dealing with some guys in the secondary, their offensive line, which had been decimated

by injury. Those guys are back at practice. Gino as a dog has been excellent, and I believe Seattle has the best pair of corners in the NFC, Reek Woolen and Devin and Weatherspoon. Our Weatherspoon top five pick Greek woollan second year player that was a steal in the draft. I think will be able to what they're gonna be able to do. And let me check, what's the what is uh T Higgins? He was limited in practice yesterday, so even if he plays, he's not gonna be one

hundred percent. What they're gonna be able to do is double Chase and trust Weatherspoon one on one on Higgins. I still think Joe Burrow is injured, even though he played much better last week. Everyone's like, oh, Cincinnati got their season turned around. Not if they lose this week, then they have a bye and they play Buffalo in San Francisco. West Coast teams who play consecutive road games on the East Coast are fourteen to five and two against the spread in the last twenty years the Seattle

applies there. The Bengals only cover this year was last week, and I understand that Gino's history off a bye is not great. He's owing three, but that really means nothing to me because two of those it's such a tiny sample, and two of those Regina was rookie in second year when he wasn't the player he is now. I think Seattle's really good. I think Seattle is going to go to Cincinnati and win and I get three points. So for all those reasons, I love it.

Speaker 4

You hate it, Demonse, I'd stay away from betting against Cincinnati, especially at plus three at home.

Speaker 2

I just don't. I think it is Joe Burrow at the end of the day.

Speaker 3

That's two for two. I you know what, I am more confident. What's the next one? What's the next one?

Speaker 2

Tampa Bay plus three and a half versus Detroit.

Speaker 3

All right, so Tampa again, coming off a bye, I'm getting three points. They're at home. Tampa is still wildly undervalued because the public does not believe in Baker Mayfield. You know who does believe in Baker Mayfield, Demonse. His teammates just named him a captain. And the Tampa has looked bad in one game all year, Philly because they couldn't handle the Philly pass rush to Detroit. Aiden Hutchinson's great,

but they don't have a great pass rush themselves. Detroit. Also, I'm not saying Detroit can't win this game, but I'm getting three and a half. So a twenty seven to twenty four Detroit win I cover. Detroit also is on a crazy covering spread. They're thirteen and two against the spread in their last fifteen I actually like that from my side of it, because I think Vegas is now trying to like people keep firing on Detroit, they keep covering, so they're gonna have to exaggerate the line to a degree,

which I think they've done here. Also, all the sharps are with me on this one. Now, I don't love Todd Bowles the head coach, I understand that, but I do like the tamp I like Tampa's team, Pardon me. I also Detroit coming off a blowout victory over Carolina. Tampa, on the other hand, a bye week. They know how big this spot is. I think Tampa wins outright. I love them plus three and a half. Where do you feel on this one?

Speaker 2

Tampa Bay plus three and a half? I actually like this one?

Speaker 3

So oh Now, I'm a little screamish.

Speaker 2

Next New England plus three at the Raiders.

Speaker 3

All right, this is gonna be a This is gonna be an ugly, poorly played down in the muck game, and I'm getting three points. It's as simple as that. I'm getting three points. Where this feels like a seventeen sixteen, twenty one p twenty fourteen to thirteen type of game. I'm not certain at all New England wins, but New England is utterly desperate. Vegas is as poorly coached as any team in the league. Belichick is really on the ropes at this moment. The Raiders defense is one I

do not trust at all. Belichick will have a plan for Max Crosby that the Packers didn't. And as bad as Mac Jones is, we saw Jordan Love this week. He was absolutely terrible and the Raiders almost blew that game. And so for all those reasons, I understand Belichick is on a cold streak against his former assistance. He's four and ten against him over the last five years. I think that changes this week. I get the three points. They're both bad teams, one bad team coming off back

to back terrible losses, so they're desperate. In New England, another bad team coming off a nationally televised win, and it's a short week. Give me New England plus the three your thoughts on this one.

Speaker 2

Don't like that one either, all right, So.

Speaker 3

That's you know what, that's three out of four. You don't like that. I love this is how we go five and zero and then last one. Give it to me.

Speaker 2

We got Dallas minus two and a half at the Chargers, all right.

Speaker 3

It says at the Chargers, but it's not.

Speaker 2

I mean it is. No.

Speaker 3

It's in Los Angeles, but that stadium is going to be eighty five percent Cowboys fans, so it will be the Chargers who have to deal with the silent count. Furthermore, Dallas has to win this game now. The Chargers are coming off a bye, and that part, you know it plays in their favor. But Dallas is in a critical spot, having just been dog walked by San Francisco and with

Philly playing the Jets this week. If Dallas loses all of a sudden Philly's six to oh Dallas three and three, the divisional race could be all but over before you even get to Halloween. Dallas over the last three years, they are ten and one against the spread. After a loss, all the sharps are with me with fifty four percent of the money, but only thirty eight percent of the bets. Dak is twenty and five in his career straight up

as as a favorite. I shouldn't say in his career, but over the last few years he's twenty and five as a favorite and a field goal win covers at minus three and a half. I might feel a little differently at minus two and a half when this can be a twenty seven to twenty four Dallas win and I cover. I believe Dallas is going to win. It's the only favorite I'm playing this week. So there are my demonse your thoughts on it.

Speaker 2

I don't love it, so it seems like you're a four one.

Speaker 3

Maybe I should change out that Tampa play. Maybe I should just go with five demands. Doesn't love right now, So here are my five bets. Cleveland getting seven at home again San Francisco. I understand there's concern about whether or not Deshaun's playing. Here's the deal on that, guys. Yes, we could wait until we have clarity on Deshaun, but if it once you get the clarity. If he is playing,

you're not gonna get the full seven anymore. It's gonna drop down to probably six, and that full seven is valuable. So I'll roll the dice on it because I believe he's playing Seattle plus three at Cincy, Tampa plus three and a half against Detroit, New England plus three at the Raiders, and Dallas minus two and a half at the LA Chargers in front of a partisan Dallas crowd. All right, Demans, you're one for four on teasers. You need to start winning. You need to start doing well.

I know you tweeted out like follow me on the teaser, We're gonna win. It felt a little desperate. I'm not gonna lie. We don't have to we don't have to name names here, but you remember that tweet you sent me from Again, we don't have to name names or professions, but you sent me a tweet and you were like, man, does this strike you as as desperate as it strikes me? And I agreed with you on that.

Speaker 2

You remember that, Yeah, I do. I do.

Speaker 3

Yeah, Well that's what I That's the exact emotion.

Speaker 2

That's what it was giving.

Speaker 3

I was like, oh man, Demanday's like trying to just get some moral support on this bad tease across the zero. But I I believe in you. I do. Well, go ahead and lay out your teaser for this week. It's another seven point plus one twenty teaser.

Speaker 2

Go ahead, all right, folks.

Speaker 4

This week we got another three team seven point teaser at plus one twenty, like you teased. So we got Denver from a plus sept from plus ten and a half to plus seventeen and a half, and then we got Houston from plus one and a half to plus eight and a half. And then you got Tampa Bay from plus three to plus ten.

Speaker 3

Well, and it's also actually Tampa's Tampa's plus three and a half now, so you actually get them plus ten and a half, yeah, which is even better.

Speaker 4

Go ahead, all right, guys, So we tease through the key numbers here. We're doing the whole Book of Betts thing. I feel very highly of this one. I think that as long as the Chiefs do not blow out the Denver Broncos, or if they do blow them out, you know, just beat them by seventeen, Tampa Bay and Houston, I honestly think those two games can be won. But that's just how that's my stance in the situation.

Speaker 3

Okay, can I jump in real quick? The Houston teaser is a great You're getting every possible key number, so I love that. And New Orleans coming off a blowout victory when they don't blow people out. I love Houston in this spot that if people we didn't talk about that game, it's asking the Saints on the road to win by more than a score. And I think you agree with this. Hugh can win that game out right.

Tampa also big backdoor cover opportunity in that spot they're coming off of by you think they can win the game out right? You are if you were going to tease Chiefs Broncos, which you are, you are teasing the sharp side of it. Teasing a ten and a half point favorite down to three and a half is brutal like because you're not getting it through the three. Instead, you take it all the way up through the thirteen,

the fourteen, and the seventeen. So my grade on this, this is an A plus teaser here in A plus your first maybe the first A plus of your life certainly on the show.

Speaker 2

But the that's incorrect, that was unfair.

Speaker 3

You know what, As soon as I said that. I was like, you're being a dick. Why did you say that to Demanse? I apologize. I wanted to take it back, but I just couldn't help myself. Here's the only concern I have, the emotional devastation if this teaser is dead by nine pm West Coast time Thursday, if there is a real sadness associated with the Thursday night football game crushing your teaser. The flip side is there is a real level of excitement and relief if you have one

leg done on Thursday. So I will be I will be rooting for this teaser. I hope the Chiefs are up what would how could this work? I hope the Chiefs are up thirty four to ten with six minutes left and the Broncos get a meaningless silly touchdown to lose us. Yeah, and you get a nice bat at that if they're down thirty four to ten. The ball, it might be a moon ball from Jared Stidham, it might not be Russ in the game, but I hope you get a back door cover on it. And I

think this is a great teaser. And you know what, Demanse, I might bet it as well. I might I might trail you on this one.

Speaker 4

This is this trying to like make up for for saying this is my first A plus saying you're gonna trail a little bit, you.

Speaker 3

Know what a little bit. I'm gonna be honest, a little bit. I feel I felt like that was really mean and uncalled for by me. All Right, what's the offer this week?

Speaker 4

All right, we six offer the Vegas gold Knights thought that they were slick copying our slot machine idea. I'm gonna show you guys a week for those that are watching on YouTube.

Speaker 3

About that unbelievable Okay, yep.

Speaker 4

Uh So let's so let's run it back to the NFR NFL slot machine.

Speaker 2

Uh the offer.

Speaker 4

So we're gonna bring out the slot machine for those watching on YouTube, those that watch on the podcast, you're gonna hear a bunch of chiming, I assume.

Speaker 3

Okay, that's fine, all right, sir, it is so let's see it is. Go ahead, and I'm pulling the lever ba An NFC South money line parlay. All right, So you've got Washington at the Falcons with the Falcons as a slight favorite, Carolina at Miami when Miami is a massive favorite, and then you've got New Orleans at Houston. New Orleans is a tiny favorite, and the last one is Detroit at Tampa. Detroit is a small favorite. All right,

So this is what we're gonna do. We're gonna do a two team moneyline parlay for one unit of the Falcons and the Bucks money line that pays plus three to twenty. Okay, we are then, so it's the Falcons to win outright at home against Washington and the Bucks to win outright at home against Detroit for plus three

to twenty. We are then going to take a quarter unit and add to that bet for a little spice the Panthers on the money line at plus six sixty against the Dolphins, because they were the team that I said, So all of a sudden, a Falcons Bucks Panthers money line parlay demonse thirty one to one, so a ten dollars bet would pay out three hundred and ten dollars.

So that is so we have our real bet is Falcons and Bucks on the money line, with a tiny little fun flyer on adding the Carolina Panthers to shock the world and ruin Survivor content. The thing is, last week was the safest week for survivor contests we've had all year. There should be some carnage this week. I wonder if it's the Panthers beating the Dolphins. That's what we'll be watching for. All right, we grade your bet at Sharper square. Next, what's right? All right? Time now

for Sharper square. Joe as demons, you go through them. Go ahead, and we'll say what we think on these bets. We don't need that. There, you go go ahead, pal.

Speaker 4

Joe s says, Broncos plus ten and a half is easy money.

Speaker 3

Well, I don't know if it's easy money, but that is the Sharper side getting ten and a half points. That is the Sharps are gonna be probably, you know a little on the Broncos side of things. Uh, tonight. I'm not betting this game in either direction. I do Oh, I forgot to tell you I do have I had a ten point teaser that I placed earlier this week. Would you like to hear it real quick? Yes, five team ten point teaser. So here is my ten point teaser for this week. I have the Chiefs teased down

to minus a half point. This is where I screwed up. I have the Browns teased up to plus fourteen and a half, which means I gave because they were only four and a half point dogs at the time. But now they're seven point dogs, So I that part I screw screwed myself. I have the Seahawks teased up to plus thirteen, I have Miami teased down to minus four, and I have Philly teased through the zero to plus three and a half. I gotta tell you something, as I read this back live on the air, this is

a C minus teaser. I didn't get key numbers with C. I did a bad I did a bad job there, all right, let me go through these last few sharper square bets. Ryan Goldfelder says thoughts on Chiefs Broncos over forty seven total seems a bit low. I don't know if the Broncos are gonna be able to score as the problem. Uh, I'm not reading this guy's name, but we'll just call him fat for twenty says Mahomes two hundred and seventy or more yards, two touchdowns and Pacheco

one touchdown. Uh that's an easy money. That's easy money, right. Uh, here's the problem. I think the Chiefs are gonna run all over the Broncos tonight. I like Mahomes to throw a bunch of short touchdowns, but I don't know if he's gonna have a bunch of passing yards. Uh y Yacht says, I gotta fire parlor. This parlay Cowboys minus two bucks money line, Vikings minus two and a half Broncos plus eleven. That's listen, it's just seventeen parlay. It's

a bad bet. Or sixteen parlay. It's just a bad bet. And then we've got Matt Ford saying Bigfoot exists plus three point fifty. You're gonna need plus thirty five thousand on that. Matt is an odd duck. And that is where we end today's show. Demon's a great work. As always, we will talk to you guys on Tuesday. We're going five and oh this week. Talk to you guys then bye,

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