Welcome in What's Dry with Nick Great episode three point fifty nine. This episode has always has brought to you by boost Mobile back in the States after a great trip through Switzerland, Italy, France and Monico where a few random with my wife and my wife's grandparents who are travel with us in the summer, it's great time. The show demons sad to report, very very unpopular in Switzerland like.
The now like to stop you out there.
I mean, could not have been more anonymous like that over the country. As we've moved south in Europe, more a little more and more. And then by the time we got to Monaco, I had Eagles fans to cost me. Oh and how about this real quick before we get to By the way, this is one of my favorite shows of the year. There's the first half of a gambling show. Uh gambling preview show. It's our full we do all thirty two over unders, so we have a lot to do. We you know, this show could be
five hours long. We can't have to be five hours long. So it's a lot going on to be clear. But oh gosh, oh yeah, So I'm in because let me set the table further. I'm I text my poker buddies, because I'm in Monte Carlo and I know there's great poker in Monte Carlo, but you can't find it, like you've got to like be invited. I played in a card game in Switzerland. I played in a card game in Italy. I played in card games in France, elsewhere,
but Monaco. I didn't know where to go. So one that text did not lead me to a card game. It did lead me to end up challenging helm Youth to this five thousand dollars a person survivor contest, which I then and you know, I'll be honest if you saw that long video A few cocktails in posted me and the Hellme Youth challenge, and by the way, that's opened everybody. Splash Sports is hosting it. Anybody can join it. But it's five grand a person. It's a lot of money.
That then the next morning, demon'say. I had a little like I don't know what the word is, regret, I'm not sure fear. I was like, do I look like an elitist? I was like, I posted because it's like a five thousand dollars a person contest. So then I was like, I think I have to start a new contest. So now there's also a twenty five dollars a person contest that that I'm gonna be a part of. And so,
like you can follow me on Twitter. It's place right when we did the it's the same people at Splash Sports that we did the March Madness Survivor pool with that I talked about. Uh, it's just you know, it's it's a version of Run your Pool, those different things.
Except to me, they're the best hosting site. But so all so all that is going on, I then go into the casino in Money Carlo and these three guys like start hitting each other, like pointing at me, but they're clearly not American, and so I kind of give them a nod and they come over and this is what they say, Nick, We've been watching you for ten years from Slovenia.
They were like you, Yeah, they called out my Luca tweet about saying you should go number one in the draft oh years ago or whatever it is.
So that so that was really cool. So it was a great time. Uh So that was a great trip. And then and then we'll get to the actual news. But I'm going to do something demands that I am not really equiped to do here, which is an unboxing? Oh wow?
Yeah?
When I went on, yeah, I don't know how to do it. I don't even know how to show my tattoo on camera. How am I gonna unbox something? And it's big and I'm not sure exactly what's gonna work. But when I got back to the house Sunday night, waiting at the doorstep was it was wrapped obviously, Hold on, look at this was this. I don't know if you guys can see what that says, but that's just fifteen
eighty seven Prime. Fifteen is Patrick Mahomes, eighty seven is Travis Kelcey, and their steakhouse is opening very soon, so I'm going to open whatever they sent me.
What a cool name for the steakhouse. Fifteen eighty seven, that's tough.
Fifteen eighty seven Prime from the Visionaries, Wow at Noble thirty three and Kansas City's own hometown Heroesatrick Mahomes and Travis Kelsey. I can't there's a there's a password on the bottom there which I can't do. But now we're gonna try to unbox this thing. All right, Let's see if I'm any good at this. I really should have gotten your mom involved with this. Yeah, hold on? Oh yeah, we also oh look at this, hold on, hold on,
official invitation. You're invited for a collaboration between NFL icons Patrick Mollons, Travis Kelsey and Partnership Noble thirty three bring a modern twist to an American steakhouse in Kansas City. I don't think I wanna hold on, let me look at this. Make sure that's the official invite. I'm gonna set that there because I don't want anyone to uh pirate it. And then a certificate of authenticity. Oh look at what hold on, look at what's here? Sorry, then
we'll get to the real business in hand here. Oh oh this is oh no, see, I'm not good at this. But this is why we're a audio and visual medium, so you guys can laugh me. But this is pretty sick.
Hold on?
Whoa fifteen eighty seven prime official old school football signed by Patrick and Travis? Did I just break the case? Maybe? So there we go. So okay, all right, well let's go ahead and set this down. Thank you.
That's awesome. That is my guys. I thought there was.
Invited to the grand opening a state Oh, it was gonna be invited to the grand opening. Shout out Patrick and trav. Uh, that's really cool.
How far is that gonna be from you like where you're at ITAs City?
Yeah, so, I mean it's it's not close so far. I'll say it's gonna be a flight. But you know what, for my guys, it's the least I can do. All right, onto the actual show. How that on boxing? Go give me out of ten?
You get six out of ten. You could have done like a little bit more like flipping it up like a little bit higher. But for the moment, we saw it all and you needed to protect that. You need to protect the envelope. So honestly, it's.
Exactly yeah, I mean this. Okay, you upgraded me, sir. Look at that certificate of authenticity.
How cool?
All right, time for the show that we are in the show by the way, like subscribe, review, five stars, thumbs up, bells, all of that now straight to voicemail product to you by voice boost Mobile. Terry McLaurin gets a real contract three years, ninety six million dollars. Trey Hendrickson gets a race. This is difference here. Trey Hendrickson didn't get an extension, didn't get extra years guaranteed, he did get. You know, Trey Hendrickson was really mad. Trey
Hendrickson felt disrespected. Dray Hendrickson wanted to get you know, have the team appreciate what he had done for them. And they said, well, how about instead of all of that, we just give you an extra fourteen million dollars And he's like, okay, deal, let you know, you know what, fourteen million will make it work and then next year
we'll go through all of this all over again. Euro Basket starts tomorrow and this is where demands I Am going to reveal how uncool I am justin Herbert and Madison Bearer dating, and this is where I tell you I have no idea who Madison Beer is.
Nun Yeah, I've heard of her a few times. I don't I think she's probably an actor, but uh.
Yeah, you know what we're not that. I'm first of all, couldn't be more proud that you're as ignorant on this topic is me. I'm sure she's lovely, she is beautiful, obviously, I don't know why she's famed.
She's probably.
I was gonna guess TikToker can any do any of our producers is singer. I should have looked it up. I know it singer songwriter. Oh okay, all right, sweet again. But I am not trying to be the the I don't really have a well, he's a pro athlete. It's probably some type of recovery thing. Yeah, I mean, would I wear a leg sleeve? No, I'm not a pro athlete, like I'm not.
But uh.
And by the way, there's no shade thrown at Madison Beer there. And I I I just truly was unfamiliar with why she was famous. But she was super like super famous evidently because what she posted. Someone posted a paparazzi picture of her and herb was like in the background, and and Charger fans were like, I think that's justin Herbert, and then they were the whole thing. All right, let's
get to the show to Monsday. Before we get to our all thirty two team over unders, we have news on the Browns quarterback competition.
Yeah. So Chador's final preseason game was a little shaky. He threw for fourteen total yards, took five sacks, And now Chador fans are coming out and saying that the team and Kevin Stefanski are conspiring against you. But also Kenny Pickett just got cut. So you know, if the landscape wh changed up a little, Kenny Thicket traded to the Raiders traded, so the landscape white, it changed up over there a little bit. What's the situation looking like for.
Shadur All right, well, listen, he was he started camp fourth string, he stayed fourth string. He's now third string because one of the strings is on the Raiders. And I'm going to give you the very sober analysis of this. Then we're gonna talk bigger picture of it, and then honestly, we are not going to talk about the Cleveland Browns and the quarterback situation again. And god willing for months, Shadora could not afford the type of performance he had
in the third preseason game. It is as simple as that, when you are a late round pick rookie, you can't have a disastrous performance. You can't, and he did. It was not the coach's fault, it was not the offensive line's fault. It was he had a bad game, flatly. And the reason it is extra concerning is those of us that were skeptical that he was ever truly a
first round talent. We were worried that his bad games would look a lot like that, like trying to do a little too much with his legs, overestimating his escapability and taking those big, deep, long sacks. Schador needed to thread a perfect needle, and he was. By the way early on in camp. He needed to play well in practice. It looked like he was. He needed Dylan Gabriel to struggle in practice he was. He needed to play well in the first preseason game. He did, He needed Gabriel
to struggle. In the first preseason game. Gabriel didn't even play. So all of that was going best case scenario for Shador to achieve what was the only realistic goal for him this offseason, which was past Dylan Gabriel in the death chart. He was never going to be the Browns starting quarterback in Week one. It was always the Browns plan very clearly was one of the veterans is starting, and then the kids are backing him up, and all
of it was going according to plan. Shadoor then suffered a slight injury which made him not able to play at all in the second preseason game. Gabriel then, after some really bad practices played quite well in the second preseason game. Then in the third preseason game, Gabriel played quite well again and Shador had a disastrous performance. And that is now that as far as the quarterback competition goes. That is not conspiratorial, That is not unfair, that is
not unjust. That is life in the NFL. Is a late round draft pick. That is what happened here. Also, Shador fans need to recognize there's not a team in the league he'd start for.
Not one.
You're on the team with arguably the worst quarterback situation, and he is fairly right now their third best option to starting quarterback. Okay, that is where we're at now. Is that a death knell for his career?
No is.
Do I think he has more potential than Gabriel because of size and pedigree. I do, But if I had to from what we saw in those preseason games, if in Week one Flacco goes out, you would have to be more comfortable putting Gabriel in. That is what it is. That's not ridiculous, that's not unfair. That's not a vast conspiracy.
That is what it is. The reason I find this story interesting is the reason I find a lot of things interesting is when they are symbolic for a greater problem or issue, and the Shadoor Sanders come and terry to me is a case study in what has in what is currently ailing so much of our discourse surrounding sports and other things which is either totally uninformed actors or outright bad actors churning the outrage mill to create
engagement and controversy. That then the current actual media feels obligated to treat seriously because well, it's what people are talking about, and then it becomes a valid, real story. And so you have folks that absolutely know better saying things like Shadoor was out there with the fifth string offensive line, when such a thing does not exist. It's like, oh, if there's not that offensive lineman was tenth on the
depth chart, Well there's, yeah, I get it. But there's five offensive linemen that play at a time, and so there is the first of all, there is no such thing as a fifth string offensive line. You have people who know better saying, oh, color me shocked those offensive linemen on the field. Was Shador were cut shortly after the game? No shit, man, you're at a ninety man roster in your third preseason game. Thirty seven of those guys aren't making the team. Guess who doesn't make the team?
Guys playing at the end of their preseason games. And there is just just a kernel of enough validity to the conspiracies. Because is it likely true that the head coach didn't actually want Shador and the owner told him to draft him, Yes, probably is true. Is it likely true that the head coach wanted Dylan Gabriel to win that competition because that's the quarterback he wanted, and Shador is the quarterback the owner wanted. Yes, that is likely true. Does any of that mean Shador was put set up
to fail, couldn't succeed? No man, throw the ball away, don't retreat back twenty five yards, don't don't make the types of mistakes that some of us were worried you would make. And it's not again, you're fifth round pick. It's fine. But and because the owner wanted you on the team, you're likely going to get to play at some point this year, because the owner said both rookies are gonna need to play. So the way this probably
goes is the Browns start the season, they're bad. Third of the way into the season, they pull the plug on Flacco. They go to Dylan Gabriel. They're still quite bad. Gabriel as in my opinion, an overdrafted third round pick. He doesn't look like the guy. And five six games later they give Shador a try, and Shador is a slightly underdrafted but still not ready fifth round pick. He doesn't look like the guy. And next year the Browns use the pick they got from the Jags and their
own pick to draft their actual quarterback. That's probably how this thing's going to go, but it is the the folks out there promoting the idea league wide code read the whole league was told don't draft him, and then the Browns were told to draft him, and then internal Brown's code read only call the bad plays Kevin. And then also the same folks and I didn't understand the Tyler Huntley signing. I said that from the beginning. I
didn't understand Tyler Huntley playing that two minute drill. But the folks saying Shador was set up to fail with that terrible offensive line are into the same folks saying, and how dare you not put him in the two minute drill? It's not that complicated guys, and this isn't fair to Shador. He did not do this to himself, demonse. But here is a reality of it, this entire conversation
and media. Maelstrom is one of the reasons he fell in the draft because he's not a stud player and once and all and no other team is having to answer questions about their deep end quarterback competition and it's the only things Defanski's had to deal with. So it's just that is what it is, and the Raiders needed pick.
Yeah, why Gabriel was ahead of him. I don't think anybody should be calling for a conspiracy like you saw.
I mean, that's the thing. And that's what's to me so disheartening is we saw the game and people are still like, Nope, that does not jive with my priors, that does not jive with what I wanted to be true. And there is an element of have you ever watched the this this is a bridge too far, but I don't I don't care. Have you ever watched the Flat Earth documentary? You should watch it. It's really a truly
fascinating ninety minutes. Okay, and these aren't bad people and it is really interesting, but the culmination of the documentary is one of the group of flat earthers saying, or spending a ton of money into getting the equipment. I'm gonna get this a little wrong. The optical equipment. You
would need to prove that. All right, we're gonna set up this pole and light here, and we're gonna set up another pole here, and if the earth was flat, the light will shine at this place, and if the earth was flat the light or round, the light will shine at this place. And we're gonna prove it. And they do it, and the light shows up where it would show up if the earth were round, and the reaction initially is huh, let's try it again. Then they do it again, and it is a brief questioning is
the equipment broken? And then it immediately goes to Wow, the conspiracies even bigger than we thought. They've somehow hacked lighting. And there is an element of that with some of the Shadoor stuff, which was right. It was he's clearly better, He clearly should be the guy. He's clearly not getting the opportunities. They're clearly if he and Gabriel were both playing,
and then they play a game. Gabriel looks good. Shador has a really really tough performance, and instead of it being like, oh, okay, that's why he was ahead of him on the depth chart, it was Wow, these sons of bitches will go to no end to stop my guy. And it's it's a little canary in the coal mine of some of the bigger issues we have right now with what is truth and what is not And so
I find it interesting. I do. I know that my favorite NFL podcast, Greg Rosenthal's NFL Daily, which I'll be on later this week, actually, you know, they have done they have tried to do a They have done a really good job of like not leading with the topic every day that you know. The show's like the shows like mine lead with the juiciest thing because they're like really giving you the news and information and stuff. And
I respect that entirely. But there is a deeper element to some of the Shador stuff that I find fascinating, just like there's a deeper element actually to some of the Mica stuff that I find fascinating that's actually about Jerry Jones and power and things like that. But at the end of the day, or had a chance.
If he looked better anyways, like why would they want to make him look bad? It would be in their businesses for Shador to look great by the end, even if they didn't plan on keeping him.
Of course, of course, guys who want to keep their jobs want their quarterback, want to put the best quarterback on the field. Yeah, I mean there's most of the most conspiracies Demanse fall apart at the first or second question, most like and that you just asked the first question, which is the wait, why again? Explain it to me? Just like the Chiefs, the you know, league rigged for the Chiefs conspiracy. It's like, hey, remind me again, who is the league? The thirty two teams? So why again
are the Chargers in on this? Like some explain that to me? So most of them fall apart instantly, But so listen, he had a chance to pass Gabriel, and if Gabriel, and the nicer way to frame it is Gabriel after that injury and watching Shador in preseason game one, was under real pressure and Gabriel responded, and so shout out to him. All right, before we get to the micro stuff and then are over unders, the rivalries, the marching bands, the upsets, Saturdays just got way more fun.
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All right, demonse, let's do the cowboys here again, a kind of bigger picture thing. We're gonna get to our over unders.
Yeah, so things are getting spicy and Dallas not only has Mike Parsons not agreed on a new contract extension, but he was seen everything but sleeping on the tin at the last on the training table. So things are so bad in Dallas. You had them last and last place in your predictions a week. You also somehow connected Micah's situation to the alleged Chiefs disrespect. Did you do you mind explaining both of those?
Sure, I'll start with the Chiefs one real quick. And I'm so mad it took me this long. I had this like Eureka moment because listen, I scroll Twitter, I see the other shows I see, and so many folks are Chiefs are vulnerable, Chiefs are on the downturn. Ravens and Bills have gotten better, Chiefs have gotten worse. Like you know, Chiefs are fairly you know, still really good, but they're not the caliber of those other teams that those takes are. It's not straw man. Those takes are
very common this offseason. But then I realized during the Mica conversation, so many of the people who are currently arguing the Ravens are the best team in the AFC, the Bills are the best team in the AFC. When the subject of who should trade for Micah Parsons comes up, you know what, I haven't take I haven't seen, well, Kansas City better do it in order to bridge the
gap between them and Baltimore. If they want to stop the best quarterback in football, Josh Allen, if they want to slow down the most dynamic duel threat we've ever seen in Lamar Jackson, the Chiefs need to go all in and trade for Michael Parsons. No one's had that take you know what, take you here every fing day. If I'm Baltimore or Buffalo, I get on the phone
with Dallas right now. So finish the thought. Why who in that scenario where Baltimore or Buffalo are trading multiple first round picks and giving out a record setting contract to get a pass rushing edge defender, Who is it that they're acquiring that to beat? Not, of course, the Chiefs, because those teams they're already better. They've already, they've already, they've already ascended. I was watching, and I'm like, oh,
you all told on yourselves. You all are claiming you think Buffalo or Baltimore are better, But then you're also saying, uh, they might need to add the league's best defensive player because they need to get over the hump. What's the hump we're talking about. So that's how I connected it to the chief situation. I'm one hundred percent right. Everyone knows it. Now here's the Dallas thing. And this is what I find fascinating and the reason I want to
talk about it. Jerry Jones has broken the rules and nobody but Mike Florio seems to care. He is not allowed to negotiate directly with Micah Parsons. He knows that he does not care, and he not only did it, but his stances it's a binding negotiation and he is fine with saying to the world at large, Yeah, there's
nothing more to negotiate. I negotiated it with him, and it is so brazen, brazen, brazen, and credit to Durell Reeves and I think Matt Shaub are the two people who have come out and said the NFLPA needs file aggrievance. Of course they do. If a player has an agent, you are not allowed to negotiate with the player directly. And Jerry is now saying we negotiated, it's done, and if he doesn't agree to what, we have him under contract this year and franchise have them in the next
two years. So I think this has gotten far uglier then the Dack situation, and I don't think it is going to be quite as simple as oh, the day before the season they re sign him. Maybe they do, and Jerry just sacrificed having my get full strength for week one for months worth the headlines, and maybe that's a good trade off for him. If I were a Cowboys fan, I'd be livid. All right, now, we do
need to get to the gambling show. But first, a couple of reminders, one like rate subscribe review, the other one you asked us questions in the doc. There's it is roster cutdown day, Demons, but there's no big roster news as yet today. Yeah, man, his agent's gonna be so bid. And uh, the US Open is going on. I Am going tomorrow night. So we will have a tennis corner update fresh off a few honeyduces Thursday morning
on the show. But before we get to our all thirty two over unders, let me talk to you guys about my friends at boost Mobile in you know what I'm just calling it. This is the boost Mobile studio. I don't even know if they paid for that, but we look around here. This is what's right live from the Boost Mobile studio. Send that over to them, Paul. They'll love it. They deserve it. They got the signage everywhere. We got this light up and running after a little delay.
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It favorite time of the year, So it is time to break down the win totals for the thirty two NFL teams you're gonna give your picks, and we were gonna tell us which teams you're intending to stay away. So last year you went six and two on your over unders, and even though you didn't bet these, you went twelve and seven on your stayaways. It looks like are you trying to sin on my lean stairways?
Yeah, let me so. Overall last year I went twenty and twelve total. Okay, twenty and twelve overall, I made eight actual bets. I was six and two on them. So the we're gonna give you all thirty two teams this year, there are ten actual bets I'm making, but I will give you the actually you know, I will tell you which way I'm going on all thirty two. But I'm only making ten actual bets. But last year, if you just bet every single team that I said over under, it would you would have had twenty wins
twelve losses. And as always, all lines and odds courtesy of DraftKings. Lines and odds subject to change. So here's the deal, and we'll go over the full recap of last year's gambling show on Thursday show Demonse I forgot this absolutely crushed in the preseason gambling show, Demonse made five bets and was plus nine units on the bets because they were all big plus odds. You crushed on those. The the I believe in you. The over unders are
important that you incorporate the vig on it. You can't incorporate the vig on the record, but on your bet you obviously can incorporate profit loss. We're gonna do this division by division. I'm gonna roll through them and demands that you and I will discuss them. I'm telling you right now, in the AFC East there is not an over under that I am betting. But we'll go through
them and I'll tell you which one I'm leaning. So the Bills are being listed in most places as an over under of eleven and a half, but there's been so much action on the over that it's minus one seventy five viig at the eleven and a half. So the the total for the Bills that is truly their updated total is twelve and a half. Because the the big on twelve and a half is plus one twenty five over minus one fifty under that I feel like the Bills are a twelve and five team. I don't
think they're getting to thirteen wins. I could see eleven and six. I think that the so this would be to me at twelve and a half laying minus one fifty a slight under. Sean McDermott seems a little concerned about their defense to Monse but I Josh is too good and they have such an advantage of that division and owning it the way they do that, it feels like their floor is ten wins. I think they are a twelve and five team. I would go under just barely.
And any of these demonse that you have a big issue with or want to add to just do it.
There's a bunch of definitely on twelve and a half for the Bills, I want to schedule I season. I wouldn't feel tough going over on twelve the Bills.
Issue and so and the other thing is how good do we think the AFC East is going to be? And this is where it gets tricky. Dolphin's total is seven and a half. They win win to a play and by the way, the veig is almost exactly even minus one oh five minus one fifteen over under. The vibes with the Dolphins seem to be wretched right they also win win to a plays and they have a very good d line, but Tyreek doesn't seem to want to be there. This feels like the perfect number. I
am going to gosh darn it. This is why I'm not betting these I'm going to buy the slightest of margins, say under. I definitely can see them going eight and nine, but I will say it's a seven and ten Dolphins year, and I will go slightly under. It would not shock me if the Dolphins start off hot and it looks like you know the Dolphins from a couple of years ago, but over the course of the season, I just can't
trust them. And it seems like the team might be souring on Mike McDaniel a bit, or at least not taking them as seriously. I'm a slight under.
Aren't those things kind of reversed though, to be there? And the team also isn't souring on McDaniel. No, correct, Oh, you were just saying in that case.
Yes, and so no, it could. That's why I'm saying. I'm I'm a little anxious about it, but I will go slight under. This one shocked me. Patriots over under eight and a half when that number came out, I thought it was way too high. The juice is even on both sides, minus one ten and yet despite that, Demons, I'm going over.
Wow.
I believe in Mike rabel.
I.
They get the Dolphins in Week eighteen in New England. You love that for them. It'll be zero degrees. They get two games against the Jets, who I'll get to in a moment. Drake may will be better than he was last year. I think the Patriots win nine or ten games, can make the playoffs, and I will go over on the New England Patriots. His schedule's bad, you meaning easy or hard?
Easy schedule?
Yes, yeah, I mean that's a huge piece of it. The huge piece of it is who they ended up drawing. Scheduleise Jets six and a half with heavy juice on the under. I still have to go under because all of the reports out of Jets training camp Demanse are that that offense is in real, real trouble. I like Aaron Glenn. I think he's trying to build something. I think he'll build it in the mold of Dan Campbell and Detroit. But Dan Campbell's first year in Detroit it
was not good. I think it will be similar with the Jets, and again I'm not betting it, but for the AFC East, Bill's Dolphins, Jets all unders, Patriots overs, and then we move to a division. I have strong feelings on a lot of these teams, but only one win total that I want to bet, and that's the AFC North. So Ravens demonse over under eleven and a half juice slightly to the over. I am not betting it,
but you cannot. You can't pick a Ravens under until proven otherwise, and so to me, they are an over in Lamar. Like last year, it felt like they lost a ton of dumb games, they still won twelve and I like the move the moves they made this offseason. I think they will continue to be a regular season juggernaut.
With that said, the reason this is not a bet for me is the slight concern that Derek hen we saw the last great Derek Henry season, and if that's the case, I could see them only winning eleven games. But it wouldn't shock me if this team goes fourteen and three. It would shock me if this team goes ten and seven. So because of that, I'm an over. I imagine you Demonse are a strong over for Baltimore.
Yeah, definitely, yeah, definitely the best team in the NFL right now.
Definitely the best team in the NFL.
I mean easily the top two or three. But yeah, so that's good for Listen, a lot of people think they're the.
Best team in the NFL. Mena. Kimes got very mad at me because I did not, But I certainly think they are. They are set up for massive regular season success. I also think that when you were talking about like the Patriots schedule the Ravens schedules in the other direction, it is brutality for the Ravens. Now what does that mean for him? I they they typically have a tough schedule this year. To me, if you want it to hear it player, it's.
Not it's not that bad. I mean, obviously you got the divisional games, but then outside of that, like you got the Rams.
Then you have the divisional Yeah that's what. Yeah, you have the divisional games plus the NFC North plus the other I have it right here? What's the other division that they play? Sorry I had it and now I closed it. But regardless, I think that and the AFC East. So the AFC East is not brutal, but it's certainly not an easy schedule. But there, Listen, they win seventy five percent of their games in the regular season. With Lamar, they would be an over. It's not a bet for me.
Here is our first bet. The Bengals under nine and a half wins at minus one fifteen. Why is the defense going to be better than last year's And if the answer is lu an Arumo was a was a you know, an inside agent for the opposition, so be it. But I disagree. And so the the They did get Drey Hendrickson back, that does matter. I'm not dismissing that. However, sure they had him like last year and he led
the NFL in sacks. I think the offensive line could be a real problem and because of that demands I think Burrow. Listen, Burrow, Chase and Higgins are gonna be great. Are they gonna be as good as they were last year? I don't know. And because of that, to me, the Bengals have a carbon copy year of last year. They win nine games, they missed the playoffs, and they fire their head coach. That is my major Cincinnati Bengals prediction is this is Zach Taylor's last year there. And here's
the other thing with the Bengals. When you look at their schedule, you like to say, oh, it opened soft at Cleveland home for the Jags. They start every year so terribly. I don't know that I want my easy games. Early last year they started against New England and found a way to lose. I also think Miles Ga it could wreak some havoc in Week one against them. I just again, I'm not saying the Browns are gonna beat them. I think the Bengals aren't under and that that is
a bet. This next one, Demons is such a disrespectful number. Now, the Browns total set it four and a half minus one forty five on the over, plus one twenty on the under. It's an absolute stay away. But I will if I have to pick, I will pick over. Yeah, I mean the four and a half wins when you get seventeen games. Now, now it is given the fact that they were a last place team, you look at the schedule and you're like, where are the super easy games and then you realize, like one of their strength
of schedule last place games is the Niners. Like that's unlucky. The Titans is a last place schedule game. But they get the Titans demanday late in the year when cam Ward should be better. So you know that's a bummer for them. They get the.
Honest the bet. Yeah, you don't even with things right?
Well, no, they start unbelievable Bengals, Ravens, Packers, Lions is how they start, Like, give me a break. And then but I don't think the Steelers and Bengals are gonna be great. And the numbers four and a half, I've got to go over four and a half, and so I will go over four and a half, but it's not a bet for me. And then we get the Steelers, who cost me a ton of money last year. I faded the Steelers left and right, and they somehow found a way in to the playoffs. Their total is eight
and a half. They are minus one fifteen minus one oh five. I am an under for Pittsburgh, but it is not a bet. I said this two months ago and I will stick with it. I think that we have Mike Tomlin's first losing season as Aaron Rodgers' final season. That was a take I had before they signed Rogers. Brew then made it his own take. But then he flip flopped it, so I took it back. And so I know, doubting that Tomlin can get to nine wins has only ever been a losing bet or doubting that
he can get to five hundred. He did go what eight eight and one one year or something. He's never been below five hundred out of at some point, right, I would think so, And I just I I think they will have a good but not overwhelmingly dominant defense. I don't think the Rogers dk metcalf fit is a smart one like one that makes sense, and so because of that, I am going to go under on the Pittsburgh Steelers, which also means through two divisions, I only
have one bet. The bet is Bengals under nine and a half, but I am also skewing towards unders. The only I have under for Bills twelve and a half, Dolphins seven and a half, Jets six and a half, Bengals nine and a half, Steelers eight and a half, over Brown's four and a half, over Patriots eight and a half, and over Bengals I'm sorry, and over Ravens
eleven and a half. Thank you. Also, in the least shocking news ever, we are only going to do the AFC today because we're not gonna get through thirty two teams in thirty minutes. This is exactly what happened last year where Tuesday's show I tried to do some actual news, then all thirty two teams, and then what we ended up doing was some actual news sixteen teams, and then Thursday we do the NFC and all our other bets. Remind me in twenty twenty six, guys, just format it
as such. But in the meantime, we still have half the conference to go through, and we have one, two, three, five bets we are making from the AFC South and the AFC West. But before we do that, I gotta tell you, guys, I am so excited it's finally here. Tomorrow night, I am going to the US Open, and that's why I want to shout out our great sponsor of today's show, seat Geek twenty eight million app downloads.
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friends at seat Geek. All right, Deman's now to the AFC out. We have the Texans nine and a half wins with minus one thirty on the under, so Vegas favoring the under for the Texans.
I will go.
This is a lean, not a bet, but a lean. I will go by the slightest of bits and over for the Texans. I like don't love I like the quarterback, I really like the coach. I love the defense. I think the Texans defense has a chance to be the best defense in football this year. They certainly should have the best pass defense, pass rush plus secondary in football. They could be vulnerable against the run. I'm worried about the offensive line. I'm worried about some of the receiving options,
and that you know. The injuries are running back, I think are a real thing. But I like CJ. I think he needs a bounce back year. I don't think they're a dominant team. I don't think they're a super Bowl contender, but I think they can get to ten wins. So I'm and I'm getting plus money on it theoretically, even though I'm not betting it. So I'm a slight over for the Houston Texans. You were very high on the Texans last year to Monsey. Have you cooled a bit? How do you feel about CJ and Houston?
I thought CJ was kind of dealing with some shoulder stuff, yes, earlier this offseason over over nine and a half. I'm honestly gonna go under nine and a half. I just don't want them to do that. I've got a bet, but I probably can't disclose now, I know. But yeah, that.
Was just oh one of your bets that you're gonna talk about on Thursday. Yeah, okay, all right, but I.
Mean they wait to go over. But yeah, the defense is nice, honestly, Like, logically, i'd say over six nine and a half is a little low for the Texans, but.
But yeah, you're going with your I understand, and nine and a half is not necessarily low for the Texans. Like I I think that's I think it's a fair number. The next team listed, it's the Indianapolis Colts. Their number is seven and a half. It is the same slight juice minus one thirty on the under. And this is a bet, and this is a bet that I love, and I am taking the under on the Colts. I am so dismayed by how they continue to handle the quarterback situation.
How do they not get on the over under?
Well, because Stiken always finds a way to win games. Like where they do deserve credit is they rarely bottom out? Yeah, I mean they they so screwed. They last year they won eight games, the year before they won nine games, the year before that they won they won four or that's how they ended up drafting Richardson. But then before that nine eleven, seven, ten, like you know what I mean, they have been an under stich and they've been they've been in the mix. I think that ends this year.
I do not like their weapons, I do not like their defense, I do not like Daniel Jones. And I think it is on the board that the Cults are the worst team in the league. I think that's possible. I think that there's let me put it like this, there there aren't If we did a worst team in the league draft, there wouldn't be five teams I would take before him and the.
Yeah.
The the other piece of it is, listen, I'm not going to act like I think Anthony Richardson's going to be good. I don't. My best would be He's never good. I also, though, think if you take a player that raw fourth overall and he's has less than one season's worth of starts, and you throw in the towel for Daniel Jones after Daniel Jones has a mediocre at best preseason, I just think that process is so backwards that you
should not be rewarded for it. And I think that they are going to have a very very difficult season and Daniel, you know, wonders if they start slow, should they trade Jonathan Taylor? I don't. I'm I'm also not sure Jonathan Taylor at this point will be as you know, continue to be as good as he's been. I just I do not believe in this team. They are a
heavy under for me. I think that number their win total should have been six and a half, and I still probably would have taken the under at seven and a half. I love the under almost as much as I love this over. We are so back, We are so so back. Jags over seven and a half minus one twenty five. Oh my god, I love it. I love it so much better. Coach two legit receiving threats, a real commitment this offseason. I felt to getting some of the fundamental things that were wrong with the team
last year, most notably the lines better. I think Travis Hunter is going to make a legitimate and quick impact. I think that the two new offensive linemen are significant. I don't mind that they lost Kirk and Gabe Davis because I didn't think those guys were substantial players for them. And I just think that Trevor also understands this is the last year anyone cares about where he was drafted.
And the fact that I can they could be below five hundred and I win this bet is just remarkable to me, And so Jaggs over seven and a half at minus one twenty five. I am all over that one, buddy, I am all over that one. Do you think I'm crazy?
I think the train will was off.
No.
I think that this this has got to be the year. It's got to be the year for Trevor.
Well, I would one would. If it's not. Listen, if it's not this year, then if it's not this year, then I just have to admit defeat. Yeah, you gotta be done, you know what I mean the five years and if it's not this year, I have to admit defeat and last one Titans over under six and a half plus one ten on the over, minus one thirty on the under. It it feels like a slight slight, slight under. I'm my hesitancy is as bad as I
think the Colts are gonna be. Do I think they're gonna get two wins against the Colts and then all of a sudden, you know what I mean, you're right there. But even if you believe in cam Ward, I don't know that I believe in the coach. I don't know if I believe in the infrastructure of the team. It also feels like a six and eleven season would be like, Okay, step in the right direction and that would still be an under, so slim margin. I'm an under for the Titans.
Now to my division that I'm all over, Yeah, just absolutely all over the AFC West. The Denver Broncos nine and a half. Never has a team that last year beat two quarterbacks all year that are currently starters in the league, went zero to seven in its games against playoff teams, unless you include beating the Chiefs backups as a playoff team. Gotten this much preseason smoke, under nine and a half gets me plus one ten. I think it is more than on the board that this team
goes seven and ten. They are more let me put it like this, they are more likely to go seven and ten than ten and seven. I will take the Broncos and fading bow Knicks, who again was good last year. I don't doubt that he was good last year. I do doubt that he is going to have similar success this year. I will take that and I and here's the thing that I say on the front end of that demanse. They start the year off with four straight
games against teams I don't really believe in. I think there is going to be a lot of Broncos, folks. I'm planning my flag on this. I think there is a chance the Broncos start like four and two, and I'm dealing with a lot of chirping because they go Titans, Colts, Chargers, Bengals, Eagles, really tough, Jets, Giants, Cowboys. How many games is that was that?
Eight?
That's eight games? So I think they you know what, I think they might be able to even start six and two. Don't care?
Is this Sean Pete? I think year? Is this the second?
Third year? Year? Third year?
You don't believe? You don't think that. I mean, the Bicks just connected, they got they got ten wins last year. You're that confident in the under on the nine and a half that like, I've seen some good Bonix in the preseason.
Everybody listen, everybody loves him, I get it. And everybody loves Sean Payton. Everybody loves Sean Payton almost as much as Sean Payton loves Sean Payton. I I think they could start the year off quite strong and then come November when it goes Texans, Raiders, Chiefs, Commanders, Raiders, Packers, Jaguars, Chiefs, Chargers a significant well, no, obviously not lose them all, but a significant down swing that leaves them under five hundred and on the outside looking in on the playoffs.
Everyone loves the Broncos this year, but me and they better start off super strong. But I am here saying I expect de Mons, a big topic in September and October on the show, to potentially be Nick ready to admit you were wrong about the Broncos. And when I tell you, guys, no, I am not. Now to the easiest bet every single year, the Chiefs hitting there over under Andy Reid. It has failed to happen one time, and they made up for it that year by winning
the Super Bowl. The Chiefs win total getting even money over eleven and a half wins. That's an easy one. I will take over eleven and a half every day with Kansas City. Twelve and five would disappoint me. I expect thirteen and four or better. They are not going eleven and six Chiefs. We don't need to spend more time on it. Everyone knew I was going Chiefs over because it is the right bet. I am going over with the Kansas City Chiefs, and there is that. Now
to the Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders total is six and a half. It is minus one forty five on the over. I like Gino, I love Pete Carroll. I believe in the Raiders. I am going over with the Las Vegas Raiders. It is six and a half. I think the schedule is soft. I think Genti will be a force. I think brock Bowers is going to have the best statistical season of any tight end. I believe
in the Oakland Raiders one hundred percent. As far as being able to win seven games, I think they can do better than that, and we'll talk more about that on Thursday show. But I am in on the Raiders. Any objections there to Monts.
I like the Raiders too this year with all the new stuff. Yeah.
And then last but not least, the Chargers numbers nine and a half. This number, to me is just about correct. I will lean under, but it is not a bet. I think they probably go nine and eight and just miss out on the playoffs. But it's a lean under on the Chargers. The Rashaun Slater injury is enough to tip me over to the underside if I had em at ten wins before. So to recap, we have the Jags over seven and a half, the Chiefs over eleven and a half, the Raiders over six and a half.
We have the Bengals under nine and a half, the Colts under seven and a half, the Broncos under nine and a half. Thursday, we will do the NFC. We will do our make miss playoff bets. We'll do our division winners, the Super Bowl EXACTA and Demand's top five bets, which were again plus nine units on five one unit bets last year. One of the more underrated features of our show last season. It's a great show. I have to run. Save our questions from today's show for Thursday.
I have to go. We are late for everything. I can't believe football's finally here. Like great, subscribe review, do the whole thing. Talk to you guys soon. Thank you to Volume, DraftKings, Blue Duck, Boost, Mobile, Seat Geek, and who else am I forgetting here? I think I got everybody in. If I didn't, I apologize talk to you. I think I said Volume on the front end to talk to you guys all later.
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