Welcome in What's Driving Nick Right? Episode four to ten hour, Week eighteen. Can't believe It's final the year gambling show. This episode of What's Right when Nick Wright is presented to you, as always by boost Mobile, a reminder everyone to everyone to like, rate, subscribe, and review, and a reminder that all our lines come courtesy our friends at hard Rock Bet Demons. Last week, we knew it was gonna be a tough one. I gotta say we went
one in four. I don't feel badly about any of them, so I hate the fact that going one and four puts us a game under five hundred for the year, to forty one forty two and two. But if we go through the picks, we can, you know, explain away. I don't know if it's explain away, But just so, we had Dallas minus six and a half at Washington they won by seven. That was a good one to get early. As we said, we liked getting the favorites early,
but that cut against us. On Jacksonville. We had Jacksonville minus six and a half at Indy that went down to five and a half by Friday. They ended up winning by six. So those two kind of offset each other.
So to speak.
Then you have the three Stone losers that Pittsburgh minus four at Cleveland. My concern there was exclusively if Baltimore loses, Pittsburgh won't care Baltimore won. Pittsburgh was peak motivated for that game, and Rogers just played one of the worst games anyone's played at quarterback all year. In a big spot, I don't My handicap on it was that Cleveland would struggle to get to fourteen. They didn't get to fourteen. I thought Shador would struggle against Tomlin's defense. He did,
it didn't matter. That's how bad Rogers. Buffalo minus two and a half against Philly, the again, that was I'm on the wrong side of it. I got it's because if Buffalo, if they just don't miss the first extra point, it doesn't get blocked. The best cases, they win by one. But it felt to me like Buffalo was the more trustworthy team. I guess they weren't, but that was I don't feel like we were way off on it. The Buffalo ended up losing by one, could have won by one.
We the Maybe the smarter line there is take the Eagles getting points, because a really good team getting points. I thought Buffalo at home, and Chicago plus three at the Niners in a game that that game was tied seven to seven, fourteen, fourteen, twenty one, twenty eight, thirty five, thirty five, and I'm getting three points. The Bears were covering literally every minute of that game until the final
two minutes they were either covering or winning. And so we have had three and two weeks where I felt like I didn't my process was not as good as this one and two week. But it is what it is. It's one and four. It means to finish the regular season at five hundred, I have to go three and two, and to finish above five hundred, I have to go four and one or five, and oh, it is what it is. I also did a stupid Christmas Day teaser that I should have just left the teasers to you.
I lost that one, so I had Detroit to win. They didn't win this week though. Week eighteen always tricky, particularly at this moment early in the week. We don't have all the info, but I think I have a sound strategy. We'll bring it to you in a moment. First, I gonna remind you today's shows brought to you by representing sponsor hard Rock Bet Florida sportsbook and the official sportsbook partner of your favorite Florida teams like the Jags, Bucks, Heat, Magic,
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First, stay away is Cleveland at Cincinnati. Cincinnati seven and a half point favorites.
So yeah, neither team has anything on the line. Neither team can even play spoiler for the other team. It feels like Cincinnati should win by a touchdown. I also wonder, though, in this game, do we see a little Jake Browning? What? I don't you know? The what does? How much does Burrow play? I just neither team anything to play for, even really, draft positioning not so much. So we're staying away.
Next Cleveland, plus the point should we're trying to prove something Tennessee. Yeah, jackson Tennessee at Jacksonville. Jacksonville's twelve and a half point favorites.
So problem here is this if during the Jacksonville game, they see that the there are some foot off the gas possibilities. If New England jumps out to a huge lead and Denver jumps out to a huge lead, Jacksonville's incentives die a bit. Now they still need to they haven't locked up the division, so they have to win
or else Houston can steal the division from them. But I don't love the idea of laying a huge number with a team that could be if you know, if Houston's losing New England and the Denver winning by a lot, Jacksonville all of a sudden is playing for nothing and they are not going to pour it on. Plus, Tennessee's playing a little bit better as of late. With that said, Jacksonville's way better than the Titans, So I'm not taking the Titans plus points, staying away.
Next, Dallas are the Giants. Giants four point dogs.
I like Dallas in this spot, However, again, we're not gonna spend a lot of The stay away logic is similar. I don't know if Dak will play the whole game. The Giants obviously, you know know they're not getting the number one pick after the win last week. Those Jackson Dart doesn't want them to get the number one pick anyway. He wants to keep that job. But I'm just staying away from it. Next.
Next, you got New Orleans and Atlanta. Atlanta's three point favorites.
Yeah so, and that's obviously devastating for Tampa. If Atlanta were to win this game, because then they're out no matter what. I kind of like New Orleans the way Tyler Shuck's been playing, but Bijon coming off, you know, he a late push maybe for Offensive Player of the year. Scary a bit, so I'll stay away. Next.
Next, you got Indy at Houston. Houston'ston that point favorites.
What will the Colts look like with Ryley Leonard? Because Philip Rivers is done, They're gonna start Riley Leonard this week. I don't know. Houston obviously very incentivized to win this game because they can win the division, but they also want to stay in the five spot, and so Houston really needs the game. I just don't think Houston's offense is good enough to lay ten and a half points against anyone. So I'm staying away.
Next, Uh, Green Bay at Minnesota. Minnesota six and a half point favorites. What the heck?
Well, yeah, because green Bay's they don't the green Bays locked into the seven. Yeah, green Bay can't move, So Max Brosmer is a six and a half point favorite. What a weird game it all? I mean it could be who is the Packers third string quarterback? The kid Clayton. It could be Clayton tune against Max Brosmer. Oh, I'm not wagering American dollars on that game. Staying away.
Next. Next, we got Chargers at Denver. Denver's thirteen point favorites.
Denver obviously has to win to be the one seed. I also though, but I don't want to lay thirteen points because I feel like that Trey Lance might. Yeah, Herbert's obviously out. Trey Lance might feel like this is my opportunity. He looked fine in the preseason.
Uh yeah, Chargers too. I know it's Denvers.
Well, it's just I think they're gonna be resting a bunch of guys. But I also think it'll be a low possession game because they're gonna be running the ball so much. So I'm just staying away.
Next, Washington at Philly. Philly seven and a half point favorites.
So this is Philly. If Philly wins, they can get the two seed if Chicago loses. But that also means if they see Chicago's way ahead of Detroit, they might start resting people. Also, I don't think Philly's offense right now is worthy enough to lay more than a touchdown particularly when we don't know if they're gonna be peak motivated.
Next, Oh what you got Detroit at Chicago? Chicago's two and a half point favorites.
Chicago needs the game, but I feel like if Dan Campbell's team isn't gonna quit on Dan Campbell and they're gonna want to go out a little bit better than they looked and they're on extra extra rest. Chicago played. When did Chicago play Sunday night? Detroit played Thursday? So I'm staying away. Next.
Next you got the Jets at Buffalo, Buffalo seven and a half point favorites.
The fact that Jets are the Buffalo's only seven and a half point favorites means they're worried Josh Allen might sit or might only play a half since we don't know that'll stay away.
Next, Arizona at the Rams. Rams are eight point favorites.
I will bet this game on. I will bet the Rams if Seattle win Saturday Night. If Seattle wins Saturday Night, then the Rams are playing to be the five seed. If the Niners win Saturday Night, then the Rams are locked into the sixth seed. So right, So if they're locked into the sixth seed. I wouldn't bet them. If they're playing for the five I might or I will, all right, demon say five games, I'm betting. Let's go all.
Right with you riding with your boy. First game you got Tampa Bay minus two and a half at Carolina or versus Carolina.
Sorry, Baker, just can't go out like this. They just can't go there is. Carolina has been better. Tampa's been one of the worst teams in football for two months. But they're at home. They're laying less than a field goal. To have any chance of making the playoffs, they obviously have to win, and then they have to root for the Saints the next day. I just don't think Tampa's gonna go out this sad. I'll lay the two and a half with Tampa next.
Seattle minus won at San Francisco.
I don't think the Niners defense, and it's thirty second in the league in sacks, it's gonna be able to impact Darnald the way the Rams have been able to get to him at times this year, the way we've seen him when he has struggled. He didn't play well against Carolina, by the way, I think Seattle's better. I think it makes more sense for Seattle to be the one seed. Seattle they played early in the year, and Seattle had the ball in Week one, had the ball inside the red zone with a chance to seal at
the end, Darnald fumbled. I think they get back. I think Seattle gets the one seed. I think Seattle will lay the point. I think they went next next.
You got Vegas plus five and a half versus Kansas City pad against them every week. Well, guy's going.
On, You just you just can't. I didn't bet against them last week. I teased against them and they pushing. But the Chiefs offense right now just can't be five and a half point favorites against anybody. And I'm not saying this is how the Chiefs will operate, But what I am saying is this, the Chief's ability to cost the Raiders the number one overall pick to prevent the Raiders from being able to fix their quarterback problem is
legitimately valuable. So it's less about the Chiefs improving their draft status and more about the Chiefs being able to screw the Raiders where the Raiders with a loss get the number one pick. And even if I just don't think the Chiefs right now can beat anyone by a touchdown. They can't run the ball, they can't pass the ball, they can't move the football, and they're on the road. They're not gonna have the juice of Arrowhead from last week. I'll take the Raiders plus five and a half.
Next, Miami plus twelve at New England. Baby, it's just.
A lot of points. Mike McDaniel's trying to save his job. Uh And there's usually one Week eighteen, big favorite that needs the game that all of a sudden it's tied in the fourth quarter. It feels like it might be this one. I know Mike McDaniel has all these awful cold weather stats, but are those Mike McDaniel's stats or are those TUA stats. I'm getting twelve points. I'll take Miami plus twelve and last We're gonna go out on our shield on this one. Even though I'm so mad at Aaron Rodgers.
Next, Pittsburgh plus three and a half versus Baltimore.
I don't really care who's playing quarterback for Baltimore in this game, to be honest, a banged up Lamar or Huntley that we saw last week. I'm just like Pittsburgh getting the points. This game is going someone's winning this game by three. I don't know who I'm getting three and a half points, So I'll take Pittsburgh plus three and a half. We know all the Tomlin getting Tomlin getting points at home divisional games. I mean, I don't
know if he's ever lost. So my five picks this week are Tampa minus two and a half against Carolina, Seattle minus one against the Niners, the Raiders getting five and a half against Kansas City, Miami getting twelve in New England, Pittsburgh getting three and a half at home against Baltimore. You ever notice how everything keeps going up? Rints going up, streaming services going up, favorite burrito spots
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as they remain active on the Boost Unlimited Plan. Demond's a another's week, another winner. I think you started off the year like one in four and since then you're eight and three on teasers.
Whatever it is, it's got started off nice and then kind of lost like three four games in a row.
Whatever it is. I think you've only lost one since Mila's been born. You've been red hot talk us through last week's.
Last week's was a three team eight point teaser a plus one hundred. We had Philly up to plus ten and a half, they won the game. We had Jacksonville up to plus one and a half, they won the they won the game, and then we had Chicago up to plus eleven. They lost, but they still covered.
It and a game it today.
It was a great teaser, Thank you, sir. And this week is a three team eight point teaser at you guessed it, plus one hundred, Carolina's up till plus ten and a half, Pittsburgh go to plus eleven and a half, and then Buffalo basically a pick him at plus half point. But yeah, yeah, I'm feeling so.
I love the first two legs. I'm wondering if there's a third leg I would like more.
I don't the Bills need to win the game. It's the Jets or are they They're stuck in theirn No.
I know the Bills the Bills. Here's the thing, the Bills need to win assuming the Bills want to move up from seven to six. Now, they can move up from seven to five if Houston and the Chargers lose. But here's the scenario I'd be worried about. But again, they're playing the Jets, so you probably chet is Houston is rolling, and so they know they can't get up to the five. The Bills rather be the seven and play New England or be the six and play Jacksonville.
That's the only that's the only question is do you know would they rather? They certainly want to be the five, But if they know they can't be the five, do they pull Josh Allen and say we're fine being the seven with a rubber match against New England.
It's not the question is that the Jets are really bad, and I think even if the Bills were trying to give them the game, the Bills could still end up winning it.
Yeah, I think I think that's probably correct. All right, I'm going to do a touchdown Genie this week.
Demons, you were going, who are who AFC NFC Mike Evans touchdown? Yeah, Mike Evans.
Plus one sixty five anytime touchdown.
I think he just needs like a five hundred yard game to continue the one case.
Oh yeah, that's all. It needs. Five hundred yard game. So that's gonna end. But I will do a Mike Evans anytime touchdown. I failed you guys on the offer last week. I am not doing an offer this week, and we are Listen, we need to go at least three and two, just clear at least so we can be five hundred or better. Five of the six years we've done this, only one actual bad year, and then in the playoffs staring at like an eleven and three
playoff run against the spread. That's the plan, that's the hope. Good everyone, Happy New Year. Be safe. Even if you're sober, half the other drivers on the road are not, so be careful. Have a wonderful Week eighteen. Reminder, if you could to like, rate, subscribe, review to the show, and I thank you as always to Volume Blue Duck and our great sponsor at hard Ark bet Boost Mobile and Zen. We will talk to you all in twenty twenty six X what rate