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We are finally here. Welcome in What's Right with Nick Great Episode two sixty, Week one NFL Gambling Show. If you're new to the pod. Every Thursday, first half of the show we do storylines. Second half of the show, we do gambling lines. And I've been doing this in one form or another my entire broadcast career. Last year was my first documented sub five hundred season. We didn't get crushed, but we were still sub five hundred. We have to own it. Forty two, forty six and four
was our ultimate record. I do think we clawed out a bit in the postseason because we were certainly I mean their thirteen playoff games, we went four and zero with the Chiefs because they covered against the Dolphins and then they were underdogs in every other game, so they won every game, so they obviously covered those but I don't. But either way, we lost money last year. We lost money on our futures, We lost money on the season bets. And that doesn't even get into Demons, who had a
stretch of America's worst teasers. He's learned his lesson. He's gonna do better. Demanse's better at everything pod related except for ear piece cord management. That one he has somehow gotten far worse on. But everything else he's crushing and he looks great. I'm wearing my Shrouds Kansas City, one of my favorite restaurants in the world T shirt. We actually told a story oddly about Strouds a couple of podcasts ago. I'm also wearing red Air Force ones because
the Chiefs season kicks off today. At the parade. Last year, we didn't. We have so much video and cool stuff from the parade last year, but obviously there was a tragedy, so we you know what I mean, we didn't share any of it. But I was walking around De Monse with the Red Air Force one on my left foot and a Yellow Air Force one on my right foot, just the the I bought too. I mean it was great, it was a leak. It was elite. I got a
new for that. For the parade. I got a new Louis Vton fleece that was actually Chiefs colors on like the previous years. But that's all lost to history such as life. Uh okay, before we get to the gambling, let's get to what missed the cut. Caitlyn Clark continues elite play. She now has another triple double. The only two by rookies in WNBA history, I believe are Caitlyn Clark this season twenty four to ten and ten as
the Fever win again. Steph Curry talking about potentially owning an NFL an NBA team, and Bill Belichick joins Instagram, which is something other people are so much more interested in than I am. But Demons, we are ten nine hours and forty ish minutes away from kickoff of the NFL season. It is my hometown team, my favorite team, against your adopted team, the Baltimore Ravens. It is a rematch of last year's AFC championship game, and it is how the NFL is starting the season.
Go right ahead, Yeah, so the Chiefs are opening up for the fourth time in eight years. They're two and one in those games, by the way, and as you said, it's an AFC rematch. Both teams have had like relatively pretty good off seasons compared to all the good teams. You call this a no lose for Kansas City. So what do you think are going to be the biggest takeaways from this game?
Well, I mean the reason I said it's a no lose, to be clear, is I just I don't see scenario, you know, obviously, just let's just bar injury from it. Bar devastating injury for all of our analysis about all these games across the board in the NFL, throw it in the trash. If a key player suffers a season ending injury, that obviously, you know, changes everybody's outlook. But aside from that, even if the Chiefs lose, no one's going to lose faith in them. No one with a
brain is going to lose faith in them. And if they win, it's now Mahomes five and one against Lamar it's the it's back to back losses for the Ravens against the Chiefs, one in Baltimore, won in Kansas City. But I think the story for tonight is going to be how dominant the Chiefs offense looks once again. So I think last year muddy the Water's a bit in people's brain about how elite early in the year Andy Reid Patrick Mahomes offenses have been. Here is prior to
last year. Patrick Mahomes five career we ones. Week one his first year is a starter. Two hundred and fifty yards, four touchdowns, no picks, a one twenty eight rating in a win. Week one. His second years a starter, three hundred and eighty yards, three touchdowns, no picks, a one forty three rating in a win. Year three is a starter only two hundred and eleven yards, three touchdowns, a one to twenty three rating in a wine. Four is
a starter. Three hundred and thirty seven yards, three touchdowns, no picks, a one thirty one rating in a win. Year five is a starter. Three hundred and sixty yards, five touchdowns, a one forty four rating in a win, and then last year two hundred and twenty six yards two touchdowns, one pick, a seventy eight rate in a loss.
Prior to last year, the average mahomes first game of the season was three three hundred yards, four touchdowns, zero picks, a one to thirty rating, and the Chiefs averaged thirty five points per game. That was the average performance for
his whole career. I have no reason to believe it's going to be I don't know if it will be thirty five points and a laser show against an elite Baltimore team, But the Chiefs take the preseason so seriously, Andy Reid extra time to prepare Baltimore new pieces on defense, Baltimore new defensive coordinator. If your Ravens Demanse are going to have a chance in this game, they're going to have to score thirty points. That's where I come out
on this. I do not think it's going to be anything close to the script of last year's AFC Championship game, where it was a race to twenty and neither team got there seventeen to ten. Man. The Chiefs scored all the points they needed in that game on their opening two drives, which was crazy given how elite Baltimore's offense was all year. Here's so. I also think real quick because I'm gonna give the Chiefs angle that I want
to ask you some Ravens questions. Just the threat of Xavier Worthy out on the field is going to open things up so much for Rashi Rice and Travis Kelcey over the middle Kelsey people, there was no speed that people were afraid of on the Chiefs last year. They bracketed Kelsey. They kept a cloud over him when they wanted to. And he's still had damn near thousand yards and obviously a dominant playoff run, but a lot of that was impromptu, off script. He and Mahomes mind meld stuff,
not oh, this guy's running open. This year, he's going to be running open. I also think Isaiah Pacheco is one of the more at this point underrated backs in football. I do think one of the more underrated stories in football this year is the Chiefs starting left tackle is a rookie second round pick, the kid from BYU Kingsley. I might mispronounce his last name Suamada. Apologies if I do. Now. They love him and Andy has you know, a great history with BYU. But that's a big responsibility. You have
a rookie second round or protecting Mahomes' blind site. Flip side to that coin is if that kid's good, that is thirty million of cap savings every year for the next five years, four years if you have a starting caliber left tackle, maybe not thirty million caps s even call it twenty five million on a second round pick salary for the next four years. That is so incredibly valuable. So there is so there's that piece of it. Now to the Ravens. Their big offseason addition was Derrick Henry Demons.
They obviously replace the offensive linemen. Everything else offensively is basically the same. The question I have for you is this That knock on the Ravens in the AFC Championship game was man, they didn't run the ball? Yeah, six runs by running backs. They now add Derrick Henry. However, Lamar has slimmed down. You know, Lamar is the defending MVP. Lamar is playing pardon me, Patrick mahonemes. The whole narrative going into last season was We're gonna show Lamar can
be elite as a passer. What do you want forget what you think is going to happen? What do you want the Ravens approach to be lean into the run, try to pound the Chiefs, or have Lamar drop back, or a little mick like where, how do you how do you want this game to play out? And how do you see it playing out?
I think we should take what the defense gives us. If if Lamar wants to run, yeah, I mean, then he should be able to run. I'm cool with him doing whatever it is to to get the win. I don't really prefer any type, but yeah, I mean, I think that they'll go out and let Lamar Jackson play football. I don't think that they're gonna try to, you know, put any any chains on him, so to speak, like they did last year. But but yeah.
Do you so? Brewce the You and Brew the two biggest Ravens folks in my life. Brew is incredibly high on the Derrick Henry edition. I don't love aging running backs on another team. Even though Derrick Henry is a Hall of Fame caliber player. Derek now Derrick Henry. To be fair to him, I'm gonna throw a number at you real quick. Derrick Henry in his career against Kansas
City has been a dominant player. Derrick Henry against the Chiefs in the regular season four games, by the way, three and one against the Chiefs in his career with the Titans in the regular season, which is crazy, averaging one hundred and eleven yards per game. That's in the regular season. His one playoff game against Kansas City. Oh
the he you know what that's wrong? He actually has two playoff games against Kansas City because he has won in the pre Mahomes era, His first one against Kansas City one hundred and fifty six yards in a touchdown in a win. His second one against Kansas City sixty nine yards in a touchdown in the AFC Championship Game loss. But that does mean Derek Henry's four and two in
his career, including a playoff win against the Chiefs. I forgot that he was on the Titans team that beat Kansas City in the pre Mahomes era.
That was the last running back as far as age if he was played, if he played against then, I didn't know he was that.
Oh age, No, so he I think I think he turns thirty one during the season. He turns thirty one in jan January fourth, so he's he's thirty all year, you know what I mean? He'll be thirty one right at the end of the season.
I feel like I've always been a little I feel like it's a little gluttonous. I was telling Matt like it's like too much of one good thing. But I do think it it gives him the ability to, you know, confuse the defense. I think Lamar Jackson's really good at that like fake handoff, like the RP or what you want to call it. I think he's really good at making it seem like, you know, is he passing here, is he giving an offer? Is he any pass it? But yeah, no, I like Derrick Henry back there. But
I hope it works the way it should. It should work looking at it on paper, but I could see it getting a little tricky.
But yeah, So here's the concern for Derrick Henry. Derrick Henry, if we just go through his career four years ago, two thousand yards, one hundred and twenty six yards per game, five point four yards per carry, a one of the best seasons any running backs had in the history of football.
The following year, missed half the season with injury, still though, when he played one hundred and seventeen yards per game, but from five point four yards per carry to four point three yards per carry two years ago, played the whole year ninety six yards per game, still really good, and four point four yards per carry. Last year, played the whole year sixty eight yards per game, four point two yards per carry. Derrick Henry has led the NFL in rushing attempts four of the last five years. It
is just now. Adrian Peterson was like that. And Adrian Peterson had a fifteen hundred yard season I think at age thirty three. So some guys are just different.
I just and he's also got the size on him. Is that a thing that I feel like is a program. He's a big dude, So like, I.
Mean he's I mean, he's massive, He's durable, and he's massive. If the Ravens have still, you know, prime ish Derrick Henry, it's obviously a massive asset. I'm skeptical of that tonight. We'll see because the Chiefs, as great as the defense was last year, their run defense has never been great. Their past defense was out of this world last year. The run defense hadn't hasn't always been great. All right, let's go to the next game.
Yeah, So, my guys, Jordan loves looking to capitalize on the end of that last season, and Philadelphia and Jalen Hurts are looking to prove that that offseason didn't kill them. Does any team need a hot start to need a hot start to their season more than the Eagles.
So this is I mean, I think this is pretty obvious that the Eagles have to unequivocally start the season well or else I think Sirianni could be fired early so the Eagles. The Eagles are in Brazil for the Packers game. Everyone on the Eagles is complaining about going to Brazil. They then host the Falcons. Now they get a little extra rest, but they are you know, it's long flight. Obviously, they absolutely could start O in two. You start oh in two, and then you're at the Saints,
at the Bucks, host the Browns. Man, you better, you better sweep that set. If an Eagles team that barely lost it all two years ago last year started ten to one and now has lost six of seven games, you've already fired both coordinators. I happen to believe the loss of Jason Kelsey is absolutely massive for my purposes.
There is no team that needs a hotter start in the NFL this year than Philadelphia, and I don't like and listen, I'm not as high on the Packers as you are, but I am not bullish on the Eagle in this game. That game might show up in the gambling section of the show. So we'll wait about.
Would you put money on Siriani being the first head coach to be fired this year?
So the problem with that is Dennis Allen exists. So Dennis Allen and the Saints, I just the Saints. They do get the Panthers in week one, but week two, they're out the Cowboys. Week three, they're home for Philly. Week four, they're at the Falcons. Week five, they're at the Chiefs. Week six they're home for the Bucks. They could start one and five and then you got it. So Dennis Allen's seat is very hot, and Bobby Sala's
seat is warm adjacent. And so I don't know about first coach fired, but it's he's He's on the very short list in my opinion, Okay, the very short list. And it's not so much that I think, like, like McCarthy's on the hot seat as well, but I don't think he's gonna get fired during the year. For Sirianni McCarthy. It's more are you going to be brought back next year than it is are you gonna be fired early? But Sirianni absolutely could be fired during the season if
it starts going poorly. All right, let's go to the Cowboys. All right?
Yeah, Dallas going into the season without Dak extended, which means that the chip on Dak's shoulder will probably be the biggest it's ever been. So do you think we're in for Dak's best year ever? Or does Jerry Jones seeing something with not extending him and he is waiting for his value to go down.
Well, his value is not gonna go down. I think Jerry wants to see I listen, Dak, Dak is going I've been telling you guys all off season. The offers that Cowboys have been making Dak are offers they know he will not accept because they are skeptical on whether or not Dak Prescott at sixty plus million dollars a year without superstar talent around him, can be a championship caliber quarterback, and that if they're better off resetting the
quarterback salary scale with a rookie contract quarterback. I think they hoped that Trey Lance was gonna show more than he did and be able to keep and retain star players on both sides of the ball. I do think here is the glass half full version for the Cowboys this year. Dak and Mike McCarthy have been elite throughout their careers in the regular season and then tightened up
and not coached or played their best come the postseason. Again, I'm not even saying I predict this, but this is just a you know, maybe a different way to look at it. Maybe the fact that they both know they're likely going to be somewhere else next year, that they don't have long term deals is almost freeing. And that come the playoffs, because I think the Cowboys will be in the playoffs. There's almost a you know what, nothing to lose mentality because no matter what Dak does this year,
he's getting sixty five million a year next year. That's what he's getting. I know, people have a hard time wrapping their minds around it. Dak Prescott, if he wants to this offseason, is going to sign a three year, two hundred million dollar contract that's sixty seven million a year, basically fully guaranteed. If he wants it, that'll be there, a four year, two hundred and sixty million dollar contract, that sixty five million a year will be there if
he wants it. And so I listen, I think I don't blame the Cowboys for not wanting to pay down Prescott sixty five million dollars a year. I blame them for giving him his previous contract that gave him a no tag and no trade clause. So they're in this position where they might lose their franchise quarterback for no reason whatsoever. What's your follow up here, demant say.
Do you think any Week one game has has has the potential for a more overreaction.
I mean, this is high on the list, but so is the next game. We're gonna talk about the fact that this game is gonna be Tom Brady's first broadcast all of it. Here's where I don't think people will overreact. If the Cowboys win because their defense dominates the Browns and Deshaun Watson, I don't think people are gonna overreact
to that. I think he's gonna be like the Browns offense is gonna be in trouble if the Cowboys lose and they can't run the ball, and you know the their two rookie offensive linemen get beat up by that Browns defensive front, then I think people will probably at least slightly overreact. All right, let's get to the last game before we get to the gambling show.
So there is one holdout left in the NFL, and that is a Hassan Reddick with the Jets. Chris Jones held out Week one last year and the Chiefs went on to win the Super Bowl. So it can be done. But you're very down on the Jets. Is this a big Is this a no big deal? Or as signed for bigger problems?
Oh? I think it's a sign of bigger problems that the only guy who hasn't shown up is a guy you traded for. I think it's an organizational issue, and I think the Jets defense right now is a touch overrated. Doesn't mean they're not good, but a touch overrated because I don't love their edge spot. They didn't they don't love their edge spot. Guys they drafted Will McDonald in the first round a year ago. He hasn't hit yet.
We'll see. They traded for a Son Reddick because they knew they needed to help their Hassan Reddick hasn't shown up, and I thought it was a bad decision by Bob Salah to not play Aaron at all in the preseason. Now he has played four snaps of real football in the last since January of twenty what would that be twenty three in the last nineteen months before this season starts. I think that's a mistake. In the last twenty one months, I guess I think Flatley, it's a mistake. I am fading.
A lot of smart people love the Jets. Peter Schrager has Aaron Rodgers winning League MVP. Coach Mangini as the Jets in the playoffs, Brew has him winning the division. A lot of people love the Jets. Eight wins, eight wins, maybe a coaching change, and then Rogers a real moment where Rogers decides if he wants to keep playing. That's my projection for the Jets. I don't trust the health of the offensive line. I don't trust the head coach.
I don't trust the organization. I do trust that the offensive coordinator doesn't know what he's doing, and I don't know that Aaron Rodgers is still good. So all put more chips into the middle of the table. That as you would say, Demonse, the Jets are gonna be mid just ah, they're gonna be fun. And I don't think I don't think Rogers is all of a sudden going to revert back to thirty eight year old pre torn
Achilles Aaron Rodgers. I think he's more likely to look like thirty nine year old pre torn Achilles Aaron Rodgers, who wasn't good enough. They were eight and nine and lost a home game at the end of the year to Detroit. And this is a guy who turns forty one years old in two months or three months. Good luck with that. We'll see how it works out. Our gambling show, all five of our bets and Demons's return
to triumphant teasers, What's Right? Welcome back in What's Right with Nick Right, and it is now time for our gambling show. Demon say take it away.
Yes, it's the first Thursday of football season, so you know what time it is. It's time for the return of the What's Right Gambling Show. Last year, the Process TM took a bit of a hit. You went forty two, forty six and two in the regular season. What changes have you made to the Process TM this year to turn things around the TM. I know it's trademarkmark, but yeah, I know what it means. I just wanted to add the bit you're adding it.
Yeah, I got it. Okay, let people know it's you. Yeah, yeah, I'm right. No, I got that. But then that's what I thought you were doing. But I wanted to make sure the audience understood as well. I'm not changing anything, not changing anything to be to be clear, I'm the only actual change I'm making is the self U mandated ban on betting the Jags until did I say Halloween that that.
They when they get back from there in an out.
Oh no, right, until they get back from me, until they go to England or they get back from England, one of the two. Uh, this process of stay aways, be careful. The whole thing that I do, where I sort every game has served me well for years and years and years. So I'm not going to all of a sudden change it. Because and by the way, as you know, to to misquote jay Z a bit, for a lot of people, you know, our down years would
be some people's career years. A lot of folks who do this would kill for their worst year ever to be right, basically dead at five hundred, so even in a terror, we were once the playoffs were included right at five hundred for the season and then just lost the VIG. Now before we demand's a get to the actual games. Uh, we'll go ahead and do the preseason bets recap part and then then we'll do something else.
Yeah, so we're gonna take a look back at your preseason bets in case anybody's still trying to lock in their futures before kickoff. Were there any late.
Editions of this? No, no, you're fine, pal, there's no late additions. I'll just run through them real quick. And again, you can follow me on Twitter if you wanted to see it. You can also right now it's on the screen, all of the bets with the unit size and the VIIG. I'm not gonna so if you want to see the real VIG and all the units all of that, that's more of a reading than a listening thing. I'll just
tell you what the bets are, the win totals. I'm on Chiefs eleven and a half, Bears eight and a half, Rams eight and a half, Broncos five and a half, the Unders I'm on Eagles ten and a half. Jets nine and a half, Raiders six and a half, Giant six and a half. The division championship bets I'm on the Bears plus three forty, the Rams plus three thirty, the Bengals plus one sixty five, and then essentially a combo bet of the Eagles aren't winning the NFC East.
And the way I did it was I bet the Cowboys at plus one seventy five and Washington at plus eleven hundred and then one division bet parlay Chiefs, Bills, Bengals, the three best quarterbacks in the conference, the three teams that have had the most success in the conference over the last five years, all to win their division. That's basically ten to one. Make miss playoff bets to miss the playoffs the Jets at plus one forty, the Eagles at plus us two thirty, the Dolphins at plus one thirty.
My favorite bet of the year, the Giants, Raiders, Steelers, Saints all to miss the playoffs at two to one. A little flyer bet Chiefs, Bills, Rams, Bears all to make the playoffs at seven to one, and then a long shot flyer Packers, Jets, Eagles all to miss at seventeen to one. And then of course a Bears Chief Super Bowl at sixty six to one and a Chief's
over Bears super Bowl at ninety five to one. Now, before we get to our picks, I want to quickly go through the eleven games that I'm not picking and tell you if I have a lean or a feel on it. Okay, So Titans Bears, Bears are four and a half point favorites. Rookie quarterback first start laying four and a half points. Don't love it. I also am not gonna bet Will Levis on the road, so I'm just staying away from that one. Steelers Falcons, Falcons laying
three and a half. I like Atlanta this year. I don't like Pittsburgh at all, but Mike tom I'm not going to you know. I the smart bet is probably Tomlin a little Arthur Smith revenge on his former employer. But I really don't think Russell Wilson is a competent quarterback at this point. If I had to bet a side, I would have bet the Steelers just because Tomlin getting more than a field goal. But I'm staying away from it. I know this will shock no one, but JAG's at
Dolphins Dolphins getting three and a half. The Dolphins injury report is already ten guys long. It looks like Jalen Ramsey might not play. I'm getting more than a field goal. I absolutely love Jacksonville, However, self imposed ban I'm staying. I'm staying away from it. Uh. Texans at Cults. The Texans laying two and a half on the road, just road team, divisional game favored. The Anthony Richardson factor scares me.
And the fact that Vegas is begging you to bet the Texans, They're like not, you don't even have to lay a full three points. That is a that is a vintage stay away from me. Vikings at Giants, Vikings laying one and a half on the road. I listen, I'm not betting on Daniel Jones getting less than a field goal. I'm also not laying points with Sam Darnold on the road. I'm staying away. Panthers at Saints. The Saints are three and a half point favorite. I just
that's this is one of my weaknesses. Panthers Saints. There is not a single game on the schedule I am less interested in watching, So I'm just flatly staying. I don't want to have anything to do with that game. Cardinals Bills. The Bills are six and a half point favorites. I think that line is perfect, so that's a stay away game for me entirely. I think the line is
just right. Raiders Chargers, Chargers laying three. I lean Chargers there, but it also feels like they're just that the Herbert injury. I want to see him play before I bet on him. I'm also not betting on Gardner Minshew on the road, so that's a stay away this Broncos at Seahawks demanse was. I stared at it for a long time. I really like Denver getting the points. I know that will surprise people, but I think Sean Payton, oh I'm sorry, thank you.
Seattle's favored by five and a half. So I really liked Denver getting five and a half to rookie head coach and Seattle. I think again. I think Sean Payton's gonna have the full training wheels on bo Nicks and get a competent offense out of it. However, the Mike McDonald factor of those exotic blitzes and what he was able to do with Baltimore, him coming over to Seattle now as the head coach and being able to throw
that at bow Nicks in week one scared me. But I did like Denver plus five and a half, and if I were a teaser guy, Denver teasing them up to plus eleven and a half getting it through the six, seven, eight, and ten would be moderately attractive to me. Commanders at Bucks, the Bucks are laying three and a half. I think that line's exactly right. Jets at Niners, the Niners are laying four and a half. Again, this is maybe a
weakness as a gambler a bit. I just do kind of want to be able to watch this game totally unmolested by a bet because I have so much take equity in the if we're being honest kind of you know, both of these teams underachieving. So I just was that was a stay away for me. But there's my leans on all those games that the most attractive teaser legs for me would be the following. The Packers going from plus two and a half to plus eight and a half would be attractive to me. You're getting them. I
always think in terms of six point teasers. Demanse, I know you're more of a seven point teaser guy, but I think in terms of six point teasers, but just for me and for the audience, So the Packers would be an attractive teaser leg. The Bengals from minus eight and a half down to minus two and a half would be a very attractive teaser leg to me, getting them against the Patriots to just have to win by a field goal. That one, to me, Yeah, they're playing
the Patriots. That one, to me is at least semi intriguing. I already mentioned, Uh, did I mention Denver? Denver is a teaser leg potentially getting them up to plus eleven and a half. Uh, And that's probably it as far as for me, the super attractive teaser legs. And now now before we get on, well, I'm just well, I don't know who you've picked. I don't know who you've picked. I'm just saying just gut reaction. I know that is
your game. But I do think it's interesting if I unknowingly because I haven't seen your pick, If I just say the legs that I think are intriguing, and then we find out if we're on opposite sides or same side or whatever it is. But before we do that, my five actual picks of the week. Uh, A couple of them might have been revealed a bit, and the teasers I like, but go ahead.
So first off, you've got Kansas City minus three versus Baltimore. Have seen that one coming?
Yeah, I mean, well, under injury, the Chiefs are nine and two in season openers. Mahomes is five and one in week one and five fifteen and four in September. I'm not I think it is uh a little insulting that the Chiefs are only three point favorites. This should be three and a half. I'm not saying it should be huge favorites. But they're at home, They're the they. I it is a little insulting that you're telling me you think Chiefs Baltimore on a neutral field is a coin flip.
Vaca saw the Kansas stats.
They yeah, well maybe that's what it is. Lamar Lamar as an underdog against the spread the last three seasons is seven to zero. But I think we don't do totals on this show. I like over forty six and a half more than I like Kansas City minus three, but I don't bet totals in general. Kansas City minus three Chiefs laser show offense returns. That's my first bet of the year, first game of the year.
Next, all right, next, you have green Bay plus two and a half at Philly.
Yeah, I mean this is I think green Bay is gonna win the game. And I mean it says at Philly, but obviously it's a neutral site in Brazil. But I just think green Bay is gonna win. I think Philly has had half a dozen players complain about going to Brazil. I don't know what. No one has explained to me adequately. Why early in the year the defense is gonna be fixed. Maybe late in the year when those rookie they drafted in the first and second round in the secondary get
their feet underneath them. But I don't think Quinyan Mitchell and Cooper Degen in Week one are gonna be super impact players. The Philly's defense was brutal all of last year. I know they brought in Vic Fangio, but he got run out on a rail in Miami. Green Bay, on the other hand, has as good a vibes going into
this year as any team in the league. They have all those receiving threats that I think really can punish the Eagles Week back seven Hurts by the way ten eighteen and one against the spread in road or neutral site games. That's the worst of any quarterback since twenty twenty. Hurts is also six to fourteen and one against the spread as a favorite away from home. Matt Lafleur is a covering machine the last five years fifty three and thirty seven, and Philly again has lost six of their
last seven, seven straight against the spread. I know that was last year. I like green Bay in this spot a lot. I think Green Bay is not as good as a lot of people think they are, But in this spot, I believe in them, and I think Philly is the single most overvalued team in the NFL. People have just washed away two months of football. Two months of football. All right, you seem to agree with me on that one, Demonse, I appreciate.
You having a little bit of faith in them, But yeah, I definitely think they'll win as well. I feel very good about that pick. This next pick, I'm a little a lot of points.
You're okay, all right? What's the next one?
The next one? Cincinnati minus eight and a half versus New England.
All right, here's the thing on this. To me, this is simply a question of can the Bengals get to twenty points? Okay, New England's not getting to thirteen. New England is capped out in this game at ten points, caped out. Their offensive line might be the worst in the NFL. They're starting quarterback might be the worst in the NFL. They have a rookie head coach. And so it is Jacoby Verssett on the road against the Bengals defense that needs to prove last year was an aberration.
I understand that the Bengals historically stink early in the year. Burrow's two and six against the spread the first two weeks of the year thirty six and fourteen. After the first two weeks of the year, teams that are six and a half point well hold on the I don't know if how to read that stat so I'm gonna throw that one out. I know what it says, but I don't know if it's right, So just ignore it. Burrow historically has been great against the spread. But that's
not what this is. That the fact that this is simply that I do not think New England is going to have a functional NFL offense, and so I think that if Cincinnati gets to twenty they cover, And what is the total in this game? Again, I'm not betting totals, but it does it's forty and a half. So I gotta do quick math on the fly here. So that means Vegas thinks this game is basically twenty four to sixteen is what they're telling us. And I'm telling you
New England's not getting to sixteen points. And so I don't love laying huge numbers. I don't mind laying big numbers here. And so Cincinnati minus eight and a half against New England, let's go to the You said it's a lot of points. I think New England might be the worst team in the entire NFL this year.
All right, Yeah, that's that's fair. I was thinking of Cincinnati, no, not being known for gidding, no, going to.
Be everyone's survivor pick. Everyone survived is gonna be Cincinnati. I mean that's that is without a doubt. I mean it's yeah, I mean it's just going to be everyone's pick. All right.
Next, So next, you've got Dallas plus two and a half at Cleveland.
Yeah. I I don't believe in the Browns this year. Their defense last year was elite at home and this is obviously in Cleveland, and this is you know, and bad on the road. But defense doesn't tend to carry over year to year as much as offense. And I they still have offensive line injuries in Cleveland, and I think Deshaun Watson is cooked. I think.
Game sorry that that.
Well, it's because they won. They won eleven games last year with five different quarterbacks, you know, like that's that's why. But I don't know that we can expect the defense to be quite as dominant. And I don't think Cleveland's offense is gonna be able to deal with the Dallas defensive front Micah Parsons and Tank Lawrence. So I listen, the Cowboys are starting two rookie offensive linemen against this
Cleveland front. That is concerning. But I think Dak and Ceedee Lamb will be a great uh you know uh connection. Once again, I'm getting points like yeah, I just think I think Dallas is better than Cleveland. And I think that even if Dallas is not as good as they were last year, I think Deshaun Watson could just be finished, just finished. And so Dallas plus two and a half is one I like a lot. As I mentioned before,
I really like that as a teaser. Leg Getting Dallas all the way up to plus eight and a half I think is attractive. All right, last.
One, last when you got the Rams plus three and a half at the two at Detroit.
Yeah, so I just think there's a field goal game. I think Detroit could win this game. Don't get me wrong, but I just think this is twenty seven, twenty four, thirty to twenty seven, and I'm getting the half point. I think the Rams are as good as the Lions right now. Now you know, I'm bullish on the Rams if they stay healthy that's obviously a huge if, and Stafford's elbow and all that stuff. But it's Week one. So in week one, these two teams both at full strength,
I like them. I think the Rams obviously can win this game, and I don't think either one's blowing the other one out. So I'm getting the extra half point. McVeigh. The Rams are six and one straight up and against the spread in week one they cover by an average of nine points. Stafford, I thought played great in that wild card game that Detroit won, but they won by a point. Now, goff is great in openers, but a
lot of that is when he was with McVeigh. And now this is the last kind of against the spread note for the Lions, but I think this one can be misleading. The Lions are thirty five and sixteen against the spread over the last three years, which is the best in the NFL. I personally am gonna throw that out entirely because the Lions have been so great against the spread the last three years because they were people did not believe in them. Yet now I think people
believe in them a little too much. They're a very popular pick to make or win the Super Bowl. So now, I you know, so if this I understand different teams, but this game last year would have been in fact, let me let me just check hold on Rams at Lions playoff game. The I'm just trying to check what the point spread. So last year in the playoffs it
was a three and a half point line. I was gonna say I thought it would have been three, but it was a three and a half point line, And so I just don't think that you're gonna get line value with the Lions right now. Again, like I said, I think the Rams can win, and it's a field goal game and either in either way, So that's where I land, all right, demonse So there's the five picks.
The five picks to week one, can City minus three, Green Bay plus two and a half, Cincinnati minus eight and a half, Dallas plus two and a half, and the Rams plus three and a half. Demonsey, you know what that looks like to me?
You're starting off five.
You know what it looks like. It looks like it's it's it's been a long time since we got a five. And oh but it's looking like five. And oh what your teaser looking like?
All right, so we start doing this. Oh, that's pretty pretty cool. I just want to I like that, come out and say it's gonna get to about week eight. I'm gonna have not lost a teaser. I don't need anybody hitting me up and being like, oh, Demonsy's got some inside information with the NFL. The game's rigged. Oh he knows too much. I'm starting off with two teams. This is what's gonna happen. Now.
Can I just say this real quick? He? Can I just say this real quick?
Yeah?
I will be beyond thrilled if going into week eight you're four and three that you're you're saying seven and oh, but if we can get four and three going into Week eight, it will I will have so much immense pride. Anything better than four and three is out of this world. But okay, Demante is saying seven and oh. All right, now, go I'm not doubting you. I'm just saying where my expectations are versus where your expectations are.
All right, what's the It's a two team seven pointer minus one point fifty. We're teasing Green Bay from plus two and a half to nine and a half at Philly, and we're teasing Washington from plus three and a half to plus ten and a half at Tampa. I wanted to bet Commanders straight up money line to win that game, so I felt very comfortable putting the money on the teaser. I think Jaye Daniel was gonna get that offensive Rookie of the Year. So yeah, that's that's the Week one teaser.
I didn't want to throw Kansas City. I wanted to do something with Ravens Kansas City. But teasing Kansas City meant teasing cross a zero or it meant teasing the Ravens up to ten correct, And I just didn't betting against Patrick. No, these are good numbers.
These are good numbers, don't I A rookie quarterback in his first start on the road is a little nerve racking, just to be honest, it's just a little nerve wracking. But you're getting ten and a half points. I obviously loved the Green Bay side of it. Uh. I'm gonna give your teasing across as many key numbers as as possible. I'm gonna give this teaser an a.
Minus because of the rookie quarterback situation on the road.
But you're getting ten and a half points, and it's Tampa's not a juggernaut.
Uh.
And I do think that there's also, even if it is getting away from Jaden early on this, there's a lot of back door cover potential. At the ten and a half, you know, they're gonna let him keep throwing. They're gonna want to get him as much experience as possible. So even down seventeen points, you're a lot They're not gonna be like as run the clock out. So yeah, give it an a minus. I like it, all right. What's the offer this week?
Uh? The offer we are calling this? Uh calling this one that it's really happening. Parlay your best case scenario, the Chiefs to beat the Ravens straight up, the trendy Cardinals to upset the Bills straight up, the Jaguars have set the Dolphins straight up, and Caleb and the Bears to cover four and a half, the biggest spread in their favor since twenty fourteen. Oh, this is at a plus two seven hundred and forty. How much are you in for or are you in.
I'm gonna turn this down because I don't think the Cardinals are beating the Bills. I also sneaky am not really anti Bills this year because people have over corrected on the Bills and now they're a little underrated. I have the Bills winning the division. They're not even the favorites to win their division. So with respect, I decline the week one, offer quick break, right back, answer some
listener questions. Next we'll right welcome back in. We'll dry with Nick right DeMont, Let's go through handful of listener questions.
Here, a negative four and two says who will be missed more? Jason Kelsey or Aaron Donald.
So it's really close. I'm going to say Kelsey because of his pre snap job of calling out the protections. I think they were both still the best or the second best in the world at their position when they retired, and so they will be missed. But Eric as a D lineman less responsibility pre snap. Kelsey did all of the protections for Jalen pre snap because he was so great at it. So I'm gonna say Jason Kelcey.
Next Scott Frazier. If Rogers doesn't get the Jets to the playoffs, do they keep him? And if not, where do you think he goes? And or does he retire?
No? I think probably retires. I think that if if the Jets are awesome and they don't win the I think if the Jets win the Super Bowl, he's retiring. And I think if they're mediocre or bad, he's retiring. The only scenario I see where he comes back is if they're good, make the playoffs, go on a run but come up just short, and he's like, man, next year, we can do it. I think all the other outcomes, he's probably retiring. Next.
Tory Spears. Is there a college football quarterback you like as the next Kayleb Williams threatening to get on Mahomes Mountain?
Well, I'll answer that along with ask Kevin Gillen's question.
Kevin Gillan Nick score prediction for what's it?
Raska Colorado?
Yeah, versus Colorado is Miny. Mahomes gonna go off?
Dylan Ryola is the answer for the quarterback who could show up at some point on Mahomes Mountain. Number two recruit in the country, highest ranked recruit in the history of Nebraska football. He trains with Patrick, he tries to look like Patrick, he tries to play like Patrick, and he's gonna light Deon Sanders team on fire this weekend. So score prediction thirty four twenty one, thirty four to twenty four, something like that, Nebraska. So yeah, I like
Riola a lot. I like him a lot. All right, let's do these last two and then we gotta.
Go Jeffrey Petrino. Hey, Nick, do you think it's possible that josh Allen wins MVP this year if his tight end group is very good to great and his rookie Rye receiver can be at least decent.
Yeah, Listen. Voters have been dying to give Josh Allen an MVP the last few years. This year, he could actually be set up in a position where It's like, Wow, look at what he did without all those weapons. He's gonna have to be an offense unto himself. So yeah, I think Josh, if they win twelve games, which I don't think they're gonna win twelve, but I do think they're gonna win eleven. Yeah, I think he's a very viable MVP candidate.
All right, Next, Austin are hey, Nick. With the NFL starting up, we're bound to have some newer listeners who may not be familiar with the right lexicon. Would you consider taking a few explain stuff like three opinion types, et cetera.
Well, the three opinion types is category one, category two. In category three, category one is instantly correct, So like if the Chiefs score thirty points and beat the Ravens tonight to category one, take I said it was gonna happen, and instantly happened. Category two is eventually correct. Usually people doubt it in the you know, shortly after I say it,
and then eventually I'm proven correct. And category three is clearly incontrovertibly wrong, whether instantly wrong or eventually wrong, flatly wrong. A category three example would be if brock Perty ends up in being awesome, for his whole career. That I shouldn't. He didn't have to be awesome for his whole career, but for years and even without the Niners, you know, avengers, I've been striding on that, and if I were wrong, I maybe should create almost like a glossary of the
different things we say in what the definitions are. Don't have time to do that right now. Now, I've got to get to the studio. Chiefs Ravens kicks off in just under nine hours, and I truly cannot wait. Demand's great job. Good luck to everyone on the bets. Talk to you guys soon. What's right? Hey, thanks for watching. If you're still here, do me a favor. Hit the subscribe button, then hit the bell so you can be
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