NFL Futures: Buying the Chiefs, Fading the Patriots, Super Bowl Prediction, and Best Futures Bets

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that won't be incorporated here. But the plan will be for these shows to come out at the end of every single week. We will record them typically as probably on Thursdays. They come out Fridays thereabouts and get you ready for your weekly picks. Now, our regular gambling show is going to be I'm going to give you five games a week that I will play. The commitment I

have to you on this show is very simple. I will not suggest any bet that I am not making myself, which is why you're going to see on this show. I have some leans that I'm not betting, it's just how I'm leaning. Then I have the bets I'm actually making. Also, so today's show is going to be all season long future stuff, which, by the way, if you're just starting to dip your toe in the gambling waters, as my co host Demanse started to do during the NBA season,

I would strongly recommend season long futures. And here's why. It allows you to feel like you have action every single week without having to bet games every single week. If you were to mirror me on these bets for that, I'm going to give out over the next half hour. If it were if they were all on a ten dollars scale, it would cost you around two hundred bucks. If they were on one hundred dollars scale, it would cost you around two thousand dollars. They're on a thousand

dollars scale, would cost around twenty grand. Again, we're not going to talk about bet sizes throughout the year. We're just going to give you picks. But because it is important to me that the audience understands that I'm being transparent here on this, because unlike a lot of the gambling shows out there, not only am I making all these bets, I am I am sweating them with you. I have allocated for the preseason portion of the Gamble, the NFL gambling thing, all of these bets will be

on one thousand dollars scale. On my end, I would say that's probably a little rich for most people's blood. I have a good job in a bit of a gambling problem, so for my blood it's just right. But you can have the same fun, whether one hundred dollars, fifty dollars, whatever it is. But just when you're because you also have to before we even get to it. And all the lines come from fox Bet all year long.

All our lines will come from fox Bet, So if you see them somewhere elsewhere, just know our lines come from fox Bet, and they are as current and as latest as when I made the wager, But the point I was making is you've got to on season long futures, You've got to really think about the juice on it, the viig on it, because that's what can kill you. So I'm gonna lay all that out over the next

thirty or so minutes. Demonsay in the first segment, what we're gonna do is we're gonna talk about season win totals. I'm gonna give you the ones I'm leaning on than the ones I'm betting on. You jump in at any

time if you have a question, concern, disagreement. But for the most part, unlike our regular show, this is gonna be similar to our fifty Greatest Players show, where it is a lot more of me than me and Demonsey going back and forth because demanse God Blessed does not have a twenty five year history of betting NFL games the way I do. So this is this is where we're doing it.

management there. I don't trust the roster construction as a whole. They have a lot of older, higher priced players, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. DeAndre Hopkins is suspended for the beginning of the year. We know Cliff's history late in the year, we know Kyler's history late in the year. I would lean to the under. I was leaning under eight and a half. When I saw it there at nine and a half, I absolutely would

lean under. But I'm not gonna bet it because there is the possibility that Kyler, you know now that he has to study film, is gonna be even better. I don't there, and the NFC is soft enough that even if that division beats him up, I'm not betting it. Carolina, I lean the over, you get the over six and a half at plus money. I lean the over because I think the NFC South is going to be weaker than people believe. I like Baker, and if Christian McCaffrey's healthy,

that team could be interesting. If Christian McCaffrey healthy, part is though a huge concern, and I don't like their coach. If you don't like their coach and they have a major injury concern, you don't really want to be betting the over. But I lean the over six and a half with Carolina Cleveland. I would be betting the under eight and a half with Cleveland if it wasn't for the sake that you gotta lay minus one sixty on the juice. That's too much. But I don't like Cleveland

as a playoff team. I don't believe in them this year. I don't believe in the general aura of the franchise post to Shaan Watson, so I lean under there Denver, was it nine and a half at you could get the under it plus money. It's now at ten and a half, but you don't get the plus money on it anymore. I leaned under at nine and a half. I probably would bet the under at ten and a half, depending on the juice, but I'm gonna have enough emotional

and reputational investment in Denver not being good. I don't also need financial investment in it because I'm fading Russell Wilson so hard. So again, that's a lean Vegas. I lean under eight and a half. But the one of the reasons I'm not betting either one of those Denver or Vegas is it's like you're gonna bet both those teams in the same division. One of them is probably gonna be a little better than I thought, but I would lean under there. New Orleans was at eight and

a half. It dropped to seven and a half. So now it's a true stay away because I was leaning under there. That's I like their defense, I like their skill. Guys. Dennis Allen, his career record in the NFL has he has coached thirty six games. He has won eight of them. He is literally one of the worst coaches from a record standpoint in the history of professional football. So I would just blindly take the under there, but I'm gonna stay away from it. In the last one, Pittsburgh's total

is seven and a half. I lean the over because of Tomlin. Tomlin has never finished below five hundred. Ever. He has won eight or more games every single year. Last year they somehow made the playoffs. They might be better at quarterback this year, even if they're starting Trubisky or Picket, just because Big Ben so bad last year?

hundred and fifty eight, eight hundred and fifteen dollars. Pardon me, we will go one by one? Indeed, is it nine and a half? I am strongly on the over now, A lot of America seems to because it's minus one sixty. You typically would not want to lay that type of juice on a season win total. But I don't see any scenario the Colts don't win at least ten games. I love that over they have the best quarterback Frank

Reich's ever had. Last year, they were better than the record suggested because they melted down at the end of the year. Emotionally, I think it is such an upgrade the fact that they unlike their other divisional rival, Tennessee. So Tennessee and Indy both their seasons ended thanks to quarterback meltdowns at the end. Tennessee ran it back with

their quarterback. Indy got rid of theirs and brought in Matt Ryan, who's obviously is a long history of playing in domes, playing in soft divisions, and carving them up to a degree. So I think Tennessee is going to have a hangover emotionally from last year. I think Indy looks at it like we've got the maniac whose name used to be Darius Leonard, but now he's Shaquille Leonard. That threw me off, by the way, I didn't get

that press release that he was going by Shaquille. Now everyone's talking about Shaquille Leonard's like, who the hell is that? Then I found out Darius his name was Darius Shaquille Leonard or Shaquille, Darius Leonard whatever. He had always gone by Darius, now he goes by Shaquille. Doesn't matter. He's one of the best linebackers in the entire NFL. They have him. They obviously have an excellent offensive line. They might have the best running back in football now they

have Matt Ryan. I wish they had better receivers, but they have a soft schedule. I wish they could man and not I wish. I think there's an outside chance Indy finishes with the best record in the AFC. Now that they're the best team in the AFC, but now outside chance they finished with the best record. I love them, love them over nine and a half. That's our first official actual bet. The next one another team in that

division that I like going over the Jacksonville Jaguars. So over six and a half you get plus money plus one fifteen. I think Drevor Lawrence is going to be a top five quarterback in the league at some point. Doug Peterson is not a perfect head coach, but he did win a Super Bowl with Nick Foles. He did get excuse me, a near MVP season out of Carson Wentz, and he is clear he worked with Andy Reid. He

is clearly good with offenses. Now. The Jags overpaid for their receivers, but they upgraded there, so they have three quality receivers. A quarterback I believe in Travis Etien, who is their high draftic last year, got hurt before the season even started. They have they have him. They have him to go alongside Trevor Lawrence, who was his college teammate, a number one pick of the draft. On defensive end. This year, I think they're going to be around five

hundred line looking like, well, not great. You can't fix it all on one offseason. It's a good question. The Jaguars offensive line is not one that I'm necessarily overly excited about. I do think. Am I tripping on this? Let me let me check to make sure. I I think they had one major offseason addition on offensive line. Are they the guy? Are they the team that got sheriff from Washington? I think they are. So they added a great guard, but they still obviously need Yeah, they

did get Brandishure from Washington. Be a free agency, so listen, they're spending money, which you need to do. They are the Urban Meyer era. Let's just call it, you know, unfortunate they get to turn the page on that. I believe in Trevor Lawrence. I'm a strong over on them. Kansas City's ten and a half. It's minus one fifteen. They've won twelve games or more every year Mahomes has been the quarterback. The idea that the Chiefs are going to be ten and seven is a ludicrous to me.

Last year was supposed to be the year from hell. They went twelve and five. I don't need even to explain this. Go ahead, do you want to jump in?

discussing how we're gonna do the NFL gambling show. The producers were like, why don't maybe you can do picks and Demons can do picks, And I said to him, I said, here's the deal. Demonse is not as locked into the NFL as he was the NBA. He will be by the end of the year. But you're gonna definitely probably watch more NFL than I've ever watched in my life, There's no question about it. Which, by the way, there is no judgment here. It literally hasn't been your

job until right now. And you didn't play football growing up. You didn't love it the way I did, even though I didn't play it either, but I loved it growing up, So no judgment there. But this is the you know, Demons having the light bulb moment. The Chiefs got ju Ju Smith Schuster as where ten days before the season starts. Is why we're not gonna grace you with his football picks, just mine and he's gonna chime in. But I listen. I like their additions on defense that you wake me

up when the Chiefs don't win twelve games. So I'm gonna take the over New England. So that's three overs I've done. New England's at eight and a half. I am strongly on the under. They have the most expensive wide receiver corps in the NFL and they don't have a number one. They have the second most expensive tight end group in the NFL and they don't have a number one. They are spending seventy two million dollars against the cap on those two positions. The league average is

thirty six million. No other team is spending more than sixty. Only one other team is spending more than fifty. They're at seventy two million. They're at seventy two million without great players at it. They lost their best defensive player, they lost their entire offensive coaching staff. Mac Jones is out here in preseason getting frustrated. New England is a seven win team at best. Their total is eight and a half. I love the under on the Patriots Baltimore.

It was they were at ten and a half at even money. That's where I bet it. Full disclosure. They're now at nine and a half at minus money on the over. I'm over on Baltimore, by the way, that's where I bet it. So if I liked him over ten and a half, I love them over nine and a half. Even if you got to pay that juice. I think Baltimore and Indie are the two teams that I think are most likely to be the number one

seed in the AFC this year. Doesn't mean they're the two teams I like the most to win the Super Bowl or to get to the Super Bowl. But as far as strong regular season, Baltimore dealt with devastating injuries all year. The question with Baltimore is, and maybe by the time you guys hear this, he will have. Is Lamar really going to play out this year without his contract? I mean, he's still and signed a new deal, so I don't know how that will affect him. I don't

think it'll affect him. Baltimore's eight and three last year, despite all the injuries before Lamar got dinged. I love Baltimore winning at least eleven games this year. I love it. Did you want to chime in? It looked like you had something you want to say, You're not obligated? No, no, okay. The Lamar thing with no contract just sparked my interest. I didn't even know you could play well. No, no, no,

So I said it wrong. He has a contract without a contract, extant exten Okay, yeah, this is the final year of his contract right now. They did that once a decade ago with Joe Flacco. Flaco ended up having the best year of his career, won the Super Bowl. They ended up signing him to a ridiculous deal and they never were any good after that because until Lamar got there, because they had overpaid him. But Lamar seems to be playing by his own you know, a different

drummer here when it was the contract stuff. More power to him. I hope he says healthy. I like Baltimore over ten and a half, all right, the Giants. I bet them under seven and a half and I paid heavy juice of minus one forty five. The line has now moved to six and a half if you want to bet the under and you get plus money on it. Either way, I like it. I don't know if I disclosure at full disclosure. I don't know if I would have betted at six and a half, but I hammered

it at seven and a half. The Giants are just a bad team. They might be Kenny Galladay. As of recording, who's the most expensive receiver in the league this year? As a capital One of the three most is in risk of getting cut from the team even though he has eighteen million guaranteed because he's been so unimpressive in training camp. Daniel Jones is still Daniel Jones. I like their new head coach, Dable, who obviously was the coordinator with Josh Allen. I don't like their roster. They are.

What they need is Saquon to have a monster year. Saquon might be snake bit by the NFL injury bug. More of the story is I love them under seven and a half. I like them under six and a half. I loved them enough under seven and a half. I paid the one forty five juice and now my final this is another one where I paid minus one forty five my final season win total the Niners. The Niners over nine and a half. Trey Lance is going to have some growing games by the end of the year.

He will be better than Jimmy Garoppolo was. So can they survive the beginning of the year with him. My answer to that is unequivocally yes. Because they have an excellent defense. They should have the league's best running game, or they in Baltimore should have the league's best running games. They got Deebo signed and they start the year off, in my opinion, with five games. Five of their first six games are some of the well four of their first six games are some of the projected worst teams

in football. They are at the Bears, home for the Seahawks, at the Broncos, tough home for the Rams. Tough, but historically Shannon has owned McVeigh until that NFC championship game, then at the Panthers at the Falcons. So even if Trey Lance is shaky to start, they should be four and two no matter what, could be five and one, and that gives you such a cushion to getting to what they need as ten wins. I love the Niners

in the regular season. I like them even more in the postseason, as you're going to hear, so, what's up?

it screws up my ability to be profitable. So I bet all these standard unit size right. But my if I were to pick one I like more than any of the rest and bet just one, Indy would be a second place, Casey would be third place. San Francis would be fourth place. My absolute favorite one is the team everyone loves. I think they are the favorites to win the Super Bowl. They're certainly the favorites in the NFC, and that is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. To be under

eleven and a half wins. First of all, that is a crazy high total. Eleven and a half is the highest total on the board. No team is it twelve and a half or thirteen and a half. You do have to pay a decent juice of minus one forty five. But given Brady's disposition, given the injuries on the offensive line, given the uncertainty of their new head coach, the fact that Tampa has the highest win total of any team in the league is crazy. Now part of that's because

everyone knows that Atlanta's gonna stink. They're correct on that. Everyone believes Carolina is going to be awful. I'm not sure they're right on it. They could be right on that, but I'm not sure they're right on that. And New Orleans people are ambivalent on but New Orleans. The one thing New Orleans are the last couple of years, has done that nobody else in the league has done is kick Brady's ass. The three and one against him in the regular season, and he's had some of his worst games.

So I don't think the division is quite as easy as people believe it's going to be. I also think that Brady, even when he's with the Patriots, historically his worst month was September and then he got better as the year went on. Well, the Bucks first four games at Dallas at the Saints, home for the Packers, home for the Chiefs. I said the other day, I think they're starting one in three over the first four now Dallas. No, Tyron Smith is a big loss for them, but set

that aside. They've got to get If they do start one and three, I win the bet with three more losses from tam Is eleven and six. I win the bet if I'm under eleven and a half. The rest of their schedule Falcons at the Steelers, that's tough, at the Panthers, home for the Ravens, home for the Rams, back to back tough ones. From now, we'ret three tough ones home for Seattle, at Cleveland, home for the Saints, at the Niners, home for the Bengals, at the Cardinals

where they wrap up with Panthers and Falcons. I just think this is eleven and six, ten and seventeen. I think that's probably enough to win that division, and maybe by the end of the year Brady feels better than he seems to feel right now. But Brady's press conference, Brady's time away from the team, the injuries on the offensive line, the uncertainty at tight end with Gronk retiring, the losses on defense. This is not a twelve win team to me, and I win the bet if they

don't win twelve games. So my favorite of them all is this one right here, Tampa under eleven and a half, even though I got to pay the minus one forty five Jews. Okay, there's our season long win totals. We will come back with some make or miss playoff bets, and then we will wrap up with our Super Bowl pick and a fifty to one long shot Super Bowl pick. All of that coming up on our first NFL gambling show of the year.

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but the rest of them. This is how I kind of like to try to diversify my preseason gambling, because if I take over on the Chiefs and them to make the playoffs all those things, then you are one injury or one bad pick away from having you know, a kind of a domino effect on your bets. But where I'm not worried about that is the New England Patriots. The Patriots to miss the playoffs. When I bet it, it was minus one ninety eight and eight to me.

Why would I lay two to one, you know, against me on a bet like this, Because I see no scenario that exists in the world where New England makes the playoffs. I would have laid minus two fifty on it. I know they made the playoffs last year. The fact of the matter is they have had the least impressive

preseason of a team that matters. They had a bad offseason where they traded away their best interior lineman for a mid round pick, they lost their best defensive player for nothing in free agency, and they have all these guys they signed last offseason, none of whom were overly impressive their tight ends and receivers who are now just more expensive. Mac Jones seems frustrated they don't have an offensive coordinator. I'm not afraid of their defense. So New

England to miss the playoffs, so no doubter. Even though I got I laid minus one ninety eight, I think it's now like around minus one to eighty. Denver missing the playoffs. I got it at plus one twenty. This is about that's insane. What's insane?

the year last year. They don't have him for any of the year this year. They had Vic Fango as their head coach. Now Vic Fango wasn't a great head coach, but he's great at defensive side of the ball. They've now replaced him with an offensive head coach has never coached Nathaniel Hackett. It's never been a head coach before. So that's a problem. They're in the toughest division in the NFL. That's a I don't think Russell Wilson's been

good the last couple of years. That's a problem. You also could win ten games and miss the playoffs in the AFC this year, case is going to be excellent, Buffalo's going to be excellent. Someone's going to win the AFC. South to say it's one team, there's one team there, Baltimore, Cincinnati, and the Chargers. To me, there are six teams already

clearly better than Denver. So then you have Miami, you have Pittsburgh, you have the non AFC South winner call it the Titans, and you have the Raiders, all fighting with Denver for the last playoff spot. I don't think Denver makes it. I love it at plus money. Denver plus one twenty is where I got it. Cleveland missing the playoffs. It was on the board, it's now off the board. I got it at minus one seventy. That's a no brainer as well. You're starting Jacoby Brissett for

eleven games. Then when Deshaun comes back, he will have not played in nearly two years. To me, that's an easy one. I love Cleveland to miss the playoffs. They weren't, They're not. To me, they are likely going to finish last in their own division. Baltimore, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh. Like to me, that's a very obvious one. That's why you have to la minus one seventy. Now to some exotics, so Seattle, the Jets and Atlanta, Is there any scenario any of

those three make the playoffs? I say no, Seattle is starting Gino Smith and in a brutal division, the Jets are starting Joe Flacco until Zach Wilson gets back, and Atlanta is in a full on rebuild teardown with all the dead money from Julio and Matt Ryan to try to get this thing started up next year. They're even gonna start Desmond ridd or the rookie at some point for Marcus Mariota. Those three teams are essentially locks to miss the playoffs. You add New England to that bet.

This is where I'm being a little risky because I have the Patriots under I have the Patriots miss the playoffs, and I have the Patriots in this parlay. So if the Patriots have a great year, it screws three of my bets, but I will fade the Patriots happily, so Seattle, the Jets, in Atlanta, and New England to miss the playoffs comes in at almost exactly even money minus one oh five. So that is what some would argue is I should replace my New England missus playoffs bet with

just this one instead. This is essentially two ways to bet the same thing, and this one I'm getting it at almost even money because I see no scenario Seattle, Atlanta or the Jets make it. Tack New England on there and we're at minus one oh five.

to have this worked out. Let me just hold on, let me just see what it is just those three real quick. I can do that quickly here Atlanta, the Jets in Seattle. It is. It's not minus six hundred. It's minus three thirty. So you could put a ton of money down and try to get but minus three thirty is a lot. I just I like it more than the way I have it. It's not a terrible bet. What you're suggesting but minus three thirty on a three team future seems unwise. Right. One last make miss playoffs parlay,

So I gave you all these teams. I think it's gonna miss. This is a four team make playoff parlay. Kansas City makes it every year. Of course they're gonna make it. They have Patrick Mahomes. Baltimore, they missed it last year thanks to all the injuries, but I think they're gonna be fine. Indy, you know how I am on Indy and the Niners, Casey Baltimore, Indy and the Niners four forty one at plus four forty one.

back years out making the playoffs. I don't think can't see or San Francisco's gonna fall out of the playoffs. I get plus four forty one. If you're into these long shots. We're gonna wrap the show with a division winner Parlay and a conference winner Parlay that pay well. The returns are massive. We will do that to wrap up our gambling show, first one of the year. Next, all right, welcome back in What's Right, Nick Right? Final segment of episode sixty five, our first gambling show of

the year. We've given you your season win totals, we've given you our make miss playoff bets. Now two fun ones, two flyers that'll be fun to sweat throughout the year. A division winner Parlay and a conference winner Parlay. Another way to put a conference winter Parlay is exact super Bowl matchup. So AFC Division winner Parlay. And we are leaving the AFC North out of it because we like Baltimore,

but we're already pretty invested in Baltimore. Cincinnati, though, could win the division Baltimore so we can make the playoffs. And who knows. I don't believe in Kenny Pickett, but maybe Kenny Pickett takes that starting job in Pittsburgh. They have that great defense already, great coach, so I'm leaving them out of it. Buffalo is winning the AFC East. Even if Miami has an awesome year, there's no way they're having a better record than Buffalo. Buffalo is winning

the AFCAS. I'm on Casey to win the AFC West. I'm on Indy to win the AFC South. Those three conference winner division winners put together is plus five fifty eight. Those are the three favorites in those divisions, by the way, and what could bite me, well, what could bite me is obviously an injury to Lamar. In injury to any of the quarterbacks would ruin me, There's no doubt about that. But set the injury stuff away.

Don't put this part on social because the TV folks are going to be mad at me. And at this point, by the way, when you guys see this, you know, TV show back next week Tuesday, three pm, our new

time slot every day Monday's Labor Day. But we are back with the whole new FS one lineup, Craig Carton in the morning where we used to be, then Undisputed, then the Herd, then Us at three pm, then Acho and everyone right on right after the reason I'm saying and everyone is I'm recording this before the actual official announcement, and I think I know who everyone with OCHO is, but I'm not certain, but you guys will know. I'm

not trying to leave those folks out. But so I should be saving the Super Bowl pick for the TV show, but you've made it. Thirty five minutes into our final podcast of the week, to our gambling show. My Super Bowl pick is Chiefs Niners. If you bet the Chiefs win the AFC and the Niners to win the NFC to rematch, by the way, Super Bowl from a few years ago, that is plus five thousand, fifty to one for the Chiefs win the AFC and the Niners win

the NFC. So there it is. So if we are to look at this entire sheet, everything that I did on it, our season win totals. Again, if you are one hundred dollars better, you allocated one thousand and fifteen dollars for a total return of one thousand, eight hundred and thirty dollars, which obviously would be a profit of

eight hundred and fifteen dollars. Our make miss playoff bets, you allocated six hundred and seventy three dollars for a total return of one thousand, five hundred and thirty four dollars, or a profit of eight hundred and sixty one dollars. Oh, I'm sorry, No, no, no, that's the that is that's without the parlays in there. My apologies for the for the no, no, no, that's right, profit of eight thousand, six hundred and ten dollars.

But the it's kind of screwed up as far as if you wanted to figure out what the juice was, because we have the one parlay and then on our conference super Bowl winners if you want to put or conference and division winners one hundred bucks on each. You would be risking two hundred dollars for a total return of five thousand, seven hundred and fifty eight dollars, or in other words, a profit of five thousand, five or five or yeah, five thousand, five hundred and fifty eight bucks.

So there it is. So there it is. If you're one hundred dollars better, you're one hundred dollars better, and you want to put a couple grand down on the preseason bets, you're in for just under two thousand dollars. The total amount you'd have to allocate to follow me on all of these is I think one thousand, eight hundred and eighty bucks, which leaves you just enough for one for one hundred dollars long shot parlay or something if you'd like to do it. So there it is.

Starting next week, we're gonna do five. We're gonna go through the entire NFL schedule every week. I'm gonna tell you the games stay away from. I'm gonna tell you the lines that look too good. I'm gonna tell you the lines that we just don't have enough information on. We're gonna do all of that and We're gonna narrow it down to our five picks of the week that is coming a week from now TV show back on Tuesday, back in a new studio, back in a new timeslot.

Life's good. Fuck to you guys soon. Hey, thanks for watching Smash, Or just lightly tap that subscribe button. It all works the same to get more from the show and make sure you click Why don't you want to mash the bell too, guys, or just you know, lightly tap the bell to get notified every time new content drops. Check out full episodes of What's Right wherever you get your podcasts, or just hit the link in the description below.