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Welcome in What's Right with Nick Wright Episode two eighty nine. Pologies for the slightly late start today a ton to Do Week eighteen gambling show in Demons. We head into week eighteen with guaranteed profitability for the regular season. We will also next week on Tuesday, we'll recap our preseason gambling show where all the results are in as far as division winners, losers make miss playoffs over unders. To
my recollection, we did great on preseason over unders. We did okay on division winners, assuming not assuming they already did because the Rams won their division and that was like plus three point thirty or something, so that's gonna save us there. And we did very poorly on the make miss playoffs because we tied a lot to the Steelers missing and the Steelers of course started ten and three. But we're forty seven thirty seven and one on the year. We'll get more to that shortly. I also am gonna
have a pitch to all gambling companies in America. By the way, this show you and me, buddy, we're gambling free agents. So maybe the in theory the you know, we'll team up with whichever company, well, let'll just be honest pays us the most money. But maybe what we'll do instead is whichever gambling company agrees to embrace my long held belief, which is, if you bet an underdog in the NFL of more than a field goal and they lose in overtime and don't cover, you get your
bet back. I'm not saying you win, and it's a very niche circumstance where this would apply. But if you bet an underdog of three and a half, four, four and a half, five, five and a half and you lose in overtime by six, just give us the betback. That's all we're saying. We'll get more to that in a bit, but first, before we get to any of that, here's what's not on today's show. Bryce James, Lebron's younger son commits to Arizona. Aaron Rodgers almost assuredly done with
the Jets. And we're not gonna do much college football playoff reaction here because we have no much college football on the show. And also I'm mad, Well I'm not mad, it's actually quite the opposite. But I liked. I did like that a losing player got MVP of a game, because obviously that can happen, that a guy in a series or a game can be the best player on the field or on the court or in the NBA Finals, not naming names, and be on the losing team but
still deserve the MVP. But demon's a speaking of deserving MVPs in playoff games. Patrick Mahomes last two Super Bowls won Super Bowl MVP. Today the Pro Bowl roster came out. I'll let you take it from here.
Go ahead. Today the Pro Bowl roster came out and Mahomes is left off. Uh yeah, this as you suspected. Alan Burrow lamar the top three quarterbacks. Bow Nick's got a little bit more love than Mahomes did. Did you have asked for any more motivation going into the playoffs?
Yeah? So this is simultaneously outrageous, ridiculous and incredibly dumb and all so perfect, like I.
Saw a lot more.
Okay, it's just well and listen both the fan votes doesn't really I don't really care. Fact of the matter is Pro Bowl rosters were named and Patrick Mahomes, for the first time in his career, is not not a Pro Bowler. And this is very similar to people are going to fill out MVP ballots and they are going to justifiably leave Patrick Mahomes off of them, even though everyone on understands he is the most valuable player in football. And again people like, oh, the best player doesn't always win.
I didn't.
He is the best, But that's what I'm saying. He is the most valuable player in football. Teams fifteen to one, what would they be with any other quarterback in the league. Just tell me, I mean not fifteen to one. Tell you that much right now. But that's the MVP. The Pro Bowl stuff. You saw it coming a mile away. So even though his passing numbers compare it, they're at least in line with Josh Allens. Obviously, Burrow and Lamar are having the best statistical seasons of any two quarterbacks
in the AFC. Burrow's team, by the way, this week needs to win, needs help from the Chiefs, needs help from the Jets. Patrick, on the other hand, is going to be on like day ten of his twenty five day mid season vacation because they locked it all up or earlier, despite being in one of the toughest divisions in football, despite sweeping the AFC North, despite sweeping the AFC West, set all that aside. Mahome's not a pro bowler, and of course it's ridiculous freaking Jim McMahon was a
pro bowler when his team was fifteen to one. There is no precedent for a quarterback of a fifteen win team who started the whole year being left off the Pro Bowl. And the fact that it's happening to a guy who is going to go down as the greatest player ever and is in the midst of the greatest start to a career in the history of the league only makes it all the more outrageous. And folks today are going. Here's what folks are going to say today. Listen,
nobody's denying how good Patrick Mahomes is. But here's why. It's just fight. He's not a pro bowler, and I'm here to tell you, folks are denying how good Patrick Mahomes is because they just held a vote and made a ruling and said not one of the three best
quarterbacks in the AFC. That's what happened. Forget the fact entirely that because he's so brilliant and because he is the leader of such a great team that the Chiefs can overcome by week four being without wide receiver, one wide receiver, two wide receiver, four wide receiver, five running back, one, never having a left tackle all year, any one of those things. So go ahead, demonsey, who would you put.
Mahomes in there for? Then who would you take out?
Well, Mahomes got to be the first in there, like the for the record, when you're a two time defending Super Bowl champion, whose team is fifteen to one, who has as good of fourth quarter and third down and fourth down numbers as anybody in the league, and who over the last nine weeks has eighteen touchdowns and two picks he's the first guy in, and then Lamar's got
to be in there. And then it's a debate of what do you care about more the raw numbers which favor Joe Burrow, or the impact on winning, which favors Josh Allen. For MVP, I value impact on winning. For Pro Bowl, I value the raw numbers when it comes down to those two guys. So because of that, I would go Mahomes, Lamar Burrow, and Josh Allen would have the very odd year of having right now my league
MVP vote but not being a Pro Bowler. But there is not another quarterback in the league, maybe in league history, that would have this Chiefs team in this position, given the injuries, given the absolute debacle the left tackle position was most of the year before they slid Joe Toney out there. And it's another instance of folks taking for
granted what we're seeing. We are in the midst of the greatest what will go down as the greatest dynasty in the history of the NFL, at the peak of their powers, and this team and it wasn't just mymes. Trent McDuffie didn't make it. The Chiefs had half the Pro Bowlers, the Ravens did half fewer Pro bowlers the Lions. So that's it's the amazing thing about Kansas City. They the quarterbacks evidently not playing that well. They don't have
that many talented players. Andy Reid's basically ineligible for Coach of the Year. How do they win all these games? The players aren't that good, quarterbacks not that good. Coach didn't have that good of a year. They got that. They've played as many playoff teams as anybody in the league. They have the best record against playoff teams. They the three toughest divisions in football are the NFC North, AFC West,
and AFC North. They didn't play the NFC North. They did play nine of their sixteen games thus far against the AFC North and the AFC West. They're nine to zero in them, and so I just it' it's it's a damn miracle they win all these games, considering the team must not be that good and it's not. Oh well, thequarterbacks carrying them like square the circle with me either. The Kansas City Chiefs should have had a dozen Pro
Bowlers and that's why Mahomes didn't make it. Well, I mean, the team is just so stacked, so even though they're fifteen to one, they were able to do it despite their quarterback, or the team has five Pro bowlers, as it does, and Mahomes does make it because he carried evidently just a good but not great roster. Instead, it's neither. And so here's what I know. If the Chiefs prior to this demanse were the slight favorite to win the
Super Bowl, they're now the massive favorite. Patrick is gonna get sixteen days to sit on the fact that the guys he's gonna have to go through, whomever he faces in the AFC Championship Game, that quarterback is gonna be a Pro Bowler and he wasn't. And you can say, oh, he doesn't care. This is a guy who counted off his NFL one hundred ranking after a touchdown a few years ago. This is a guy who we saw it on.
Quarterback was asked who do you want to play in the next round when he had just sprained his ankle. The Bills are the Bengals, and he was like, well, the Bills would probably be easier, but I'd rather play the Bengals because they've been talking so much. So this
is great for the Chiefs. But it's idiotic. And if people care about Pro Bowls, they're gonna look back historically and be like, wait what, They're gonna look at Patrick mahons football reference page and right now at read like this twenty eighteen, Pro Bowl, twenty nineteen, Pro BOL twenty twenty, Pro Bowl twenty twenty one, Pro Bowl twenty twenty two, Pro Bowl twenty twenty three, Pro Bowl twenty twenty four.
Not people will be like, oh man, was that a bad year for Him'd be like, no, it was actually the three p year and they were fifty Homes.
As far as wrong numbers, though with those three quarterbacks, they all have better numbers than he does.
So listen, Josh doesn't have Josh doesn't have much better passing numbers. Now, he's way better at touchdowns. No, there's no doubt about that. But again, if someone explain why are the Chiefs fifteen and one, tell me if it's because they just have a ton of awesome players, then why are they six then Pro bowlers? And if it's because they have Patrick Mahomes, then why is he not a Pro Bowler?
What?
Those two things can't happen, You can't. Here's what can't happen the Ravens. The Ravens are eleven and five, eleven and five, And the argument is Lamar might be League MVP. And by the way, per the Pro Bowl, they have the most talented roster in football, Then why do they lose so much? So the quarterbacks playing better than Patrick? They have double the Pro bowlers, they have five times
as many losses and lost to the Chiefs. So you just the there needed to be a laying pick either Chiefs galore on the Pro Bowl or oh okay, yeah, Patrick kind of did do more with less and his real impact is not reflected fully in the numbers. So Patrick's there. This makes no sense. But whatever I mean, I don't it Actually what go ahead? Well, there's you want to say something.
There's a I don't know this, but if a Chiefs player opted out, would Mahomes be the next step? By default? I could?
Oh, you mean no, if a quarterback opted out, yeah, because uh, I mean he is the first alternate. But that's but he'll be too busy getting ready for the Super Bowl. So like and and and then they're they're also asking how much does this really matter? It's all part of your resume it all matters. You know, a guy Lebron James, the greatest athlete I've ever seen, the fact that he has been an All NBA guy for twenty consecutive years is important. No gaps. There's now a
gap for Mahomes. And it's both this stuff matters and so we and like even if it's not the bigger picture stuff. And it's also just illogical, and it's further evidence that folks are already just so thirsty for the next thing in the NFL. They don't want to acknowledge the thing that's happening right now, and so there's no rationale too. But the it and again I don't I don't know who's in the dock making these idiotic arguments, but the yet the writing Tyler Huntley's a pro bowler,
Mac Jones is a pro bowler. Oh yeah, this matters. That's the flip side to it. Yes, it is true bad players sometimes make the Pro Bowl. That is not in conflict with the idea that great players at this position. It because the point that's being made in the dock is actually further evidence that what I'm saying is true. Because a guy like Tyler Huntley and Mac Jones have been Pro Bowl quote unquote on their resume. It looks even worse when a great player doesn't have one on
his for that year. Next.
Yeah, you said on your show that the Vikings Lions game might be one of the most important history. Darnald and Golf have obviously had some great revivals of their career this year, but with revivals comes a low point. You had these guys on Pumpkin Watch, and you know with the Pumpkin Watch thing, there's always a possibility you can go back to that. Which quarterback do you trust more in this game? And going into the playoffs?
I want to talk listen for the we'll get into this in this We'll get into this game in the picks, but I want to talk for the playoffs. You have to trust golf more in the playoffs. The guy's been to multiple conference championship games, has been to a Super Bowl, has been to the playoffs, has played poorly in the playoffs with the Rams, and played well in the playoffs with the Lions. Donald's never played in a playoff game, and so you know they're like that. That's not even
as far as the individual player. There's no doubt that Golf has earned way way more trust, and I think Golf is god like the five interception game. Notwithstanding, Golf is in a different spot than Donald when it comes to Pumpkin Watch. Like we talked about him. First things first, which is he has done this for long enough and in now two different places that it does feel like if he's in the right situation, you can expect a
pretty high baseline level of performance from him. Like so that to me is very different than Donald, which is he's having this MVP caliber season and it is so unlike anything we've ever seen from him in his entire career that it does make you nervous that the clock's gonna strike midnight. But I mean they're fourteen and two and a game from the one seed, and so go ahead.
Give golf the higher floor. I think, yes, just saying there, yes, I see.
And Golf has the higher floor. And right now you've got to say Donald has the higher ceiling. Donald's been making some big boy throws, high level stuff they're asking him to do. What sucks for the Lions is they now right now have only one way to win. They just have to outscore you. We saw it Monday night
in that game. They shouldn't have been playing their guys, but they did for reasons that still make no sense, which is that the second string Niners move the ball up and down the field on him before perty you know, started throwing those picks all right.
Next, Oh yeah, so the AFC North title stuff for grabs. All four teams are gonna play on Sunday. The Ravens can lock it up with a win, but Pittsburgh could screw over Cincinnati. How do you see this division battle playing out?
So listen, I mean, obviously the Ravens are gonna win the division. Now, I mean, have you, I assume you have Demanse seen the line for Ravens Browns. I mean it's seventeen and a half points and dtr is not an NFL quarterback, And I don't understand how you can in good faith start him in games. It seems like a nice enough guy.
But they're playing him to take maybe the situation.
I mean, he's he's now in the almost never before seen club of one touchdown ten picks for career. I mean that's the Tim Boyle college club, like the I mean he has a his passer rating this year. Yeah, No, it's really really bad man. H his his passer rating this year is worse than what you get if you spike the football every play, And so I just don't the So the Ravens obviously are gonna win the division. Uh, what I will say is this I and this is
where the Bengals conversation gets so odd. Everyone talks about how scary the Bengals are and how Pittsburgh is not scary, and at surface level you understand what they mean. They're like, oh, well, the Bengals Chase and Burrow and t Higgins and then score those points in Pittsburgh, you know, is kind of boring, and you know, we know what we're gonna get. But they play each other this weekend with the Bengals season on the line, and I think Pittsburgh probably beats them.
Like so, it's a weird thing where people can when people say scary, what they really mean is awesome offense. But that doesn't always translate to good football team. The Bengals are. You know, the were in a dogfight with They have two wins. The Bengals do this year two wins over teams that have more than four wins, right, so they have eight wins six of them came against teams that are drafting in the top ten right now, teams that have three or four victories on the season.
The two wins they have against non total bottom feeders was the Cowboys game that the Cowboys blocked a punt to essentially win that game and then screwed it up by trying to recover it and the Bengals pulled it out of the fire, and the Broncos game, which the Broncos had the ball twice in overtime to win. So they have two wins this year over non awful teams and both of those were skin of their teeth wins. So listen, I think that the AFC playoff seating is
I'll just do this right now. We'll see if I you know what, Yeah, I'll just do the AFC playoff seating real quick, because this is I think the way it is sitting right now is the way it is going to land, with one possible exception. So I think it's going to be Kansas City one, they're locked, Buffalo two, they're locked. Baltimore stays at three, they're locked with a win, Houston stays at four. They are there, Pittsburgh stays at five because I think they beat the Bengals this weekend.
The Chargers stay at six because Harball's taking that game seriously and he wants to win. Oh well, that's a something just occurred to me on that Gosh darn it that if they see the Steelers win on Saturday. Oh this could impact my picks. I forgot those games aren't simultaneous, because if they see the Steelers win on Saturday, then they are then locked into the six line, right they can't move up? Oh boy, So I wonder what Harball
would do with that is that is a tricky element. Luckily, though, they're playing the Raiders, so it might not matter, but the Chargers will be six. And then I would like for Miami to find a way to get into the playoffs. And I would like for the Chiefs to beat the Broncos because I just want to have a chance at the first ever nineteen win regular season or nineteen win season. Pardon me, no one's ever done it. But I don't think the Chiefs' backups are gonna beat the Broncos. I
don't know that. I think it's gonna be a blowout the way Vegas does. But so I think The way the AFC playoff picture looks right now is the way the AFC playoff picture is going to look one through seven. I think the way it is going into this weekend is what it is actually going to be going into the actual postseason. All right, let's the hold on so saying the Chargers can only climb if Cincinnati wins. That's right, Yeah, because they need the Steelers to lose. That's and that
game's on Saturday, which is a weird spot. All right, let's go to tanking demonte.
Yeah, so Week eighteen isn't just important for the playoff seeding, but the top draft also, the top draft picks will also be decided. New England. Who's currently at the number one pick? It started Drake May. It doesn't really seem like they plan on tanking. The Titans are next in line, but they play the Texans and they're already locked into their seating. Who do you think ends up with that number one pick?
So I gotta go to I mean, right now, I think the money would have to be on Cleveland because the Patriots, Like, here's why, Cleveland has no shot at winning, none whatsoever? Right, everyone else that has three wins has a real chance to win. The Patriots are playing the Bills backups and are gonna play their guys. Tennessee is gonna be playing the Texans backups, and I think that Brian Callahan, I'm not saying Year one hot seat, but
they're gonna be trying to win. And the Giants are gonna be playing the Eagles backups, and they you know, they're only two and a half point dogs, and they just gotta win. And so Cleveland, to me, would be the safest bet because now, listen, the only way Cleveland can do it is if Tennessee and New England win. If Tennessee or New England lose, they stay ahead of them.
But Cleveland's drawing dead to win the game. And so I think right now, even though you know the math would say New England would be the pick because that's where they are right now, I think Cleveland's gonna has a sneaky chance at ending up with the number one pick. That's a bet I might make. I guess the way you bet that is very simple is I just would be If I think that, then I I would just be saying I'm betting on the Patriots, uh and Titans
to win the game. So a Patriots Titans moneyline parlay this week. Let me just do it real quick and not actually bet it, but look at it real quick. A Patriots. So Patriots are plus one ten and the Titans are minus one twenty six. So yeah, plus two seventy five. So that's an implied, like twenty five percent chance. That's a yeah, I think, And I guess technically I have to include Baltimore on the money line, which makes it plus two cause you need Cleveland to lose. But
that's an obvious piece of it. Yeah, I think. I think that's a bet I might make. That's a little I'm throwing out to the audience. A Titans Patriots Ravens moneyline parlay for the Browns to get the number one overall pick that pays plus two ninety. I don't mind that one. I actually like that one a lot. Quit all right, So we've got our gambling show and we'll do our picks. Six straight winning weeks and a plead of sports books out there to do what's right for
their customers. We'll do that next as well. What's Right? All right? Welcome back in What's Right with Nick Wright, and so listen I said it before the I don't want to get into it too much right now because it's not really I don't know how much the audience right now this moment cares. But part of the new year is there will be some you know, potential nothing seismic, but changes to the podcast. And one of them is
that we are gambling sponsor free agents. So well, you know, if you're an American sports book and you know you're looking for well, let's just be honest. The most accurate Picks podcast YouTube show out there some pretty damn good teasers as well, nice little father Son combo. You know, have your people talk to my people and see if some work out. I would imagine phones are already ringing off the hook, and so you know, I'll be able
to be choosy with this. And yeah, money's always nice, but you know, I want to be in business with someone that shares my values. And while election season may be over, there's one issue that hasn't been talked to nearly enough, and that is the scourge of being on the right side of an NFL game, picking an underdog of more than a field goal but less than a touchdown, watching that game go to overtime, only to then see
a crushing overtime touchdown unjustly costs you your wager. So I am here on January TEWOD twenty twenty five calling on all sportsbooks to do the right thing and just have part of your house rules be if you bet an underdog against the spread of three and a half, four, four and a half, five or five and a half points, and that team loses by six in overtime, we'll refund your wager, not call it a win. I'm not saying not getting crazy here, We'll refund the wager. And you
notice I'm not saying an underdog of any amount. I'm not saying it a y'all. Well, it was tied at the end of regulation. I had a team plus one and a half, that'd be ridiculous. I'm not even saying if you have them plus three, you deserve to have your money.
Beck.
Nope, not that. But what happened to me on Saturday evening with the Denver Broncos getting three and a half and watching every possible way for that bet to win happen and then still lose. And I you know, we don't have to rehash it, but I will quickly ways. Denver plus three and a half would have won if after they score the touchdown at the end. Well, no, let me back up even further. At the end of regulation, the Bengals are trying to run out the clock to
kick a field goal. The guy goes down instead of scoring, Chase Brown. He gets hurt doing that, so they have to use a timeout. Denver gets to keep theirs, and now they can't run out the clock if he just doesn't get hurt. They're kicking a field goal with eight seconds left, so that happens. Denver then scores a touchdown. They could go for two. They don't. It was actually smart because the tie would have been good for them.
In overtime, the Bengals go three and out. Okay, now touchdowns really off the board because field goal wins it. Denver can't score. The Bengals then have a thirty yarder once again for me to win my bet. He shanks it off the upright Denver. Then again, a tie is as good as a win. Needs one first down to be able to run out the clock. They don't get it. Cincinnati. Then every team in that spot they get the ball
down to the four. You send out the kicker. But because they're Juice and Burrows stats and the kicker has missed one, they just throw another pass touchdown. Bet should have been refunded. It's all I'm saying. I'm just saying, yeah, I don't win. Bet should have been refunded. Some sportsbook is gonna agree with me on that, and listen, they might be the What's Right with Nick Wright and Demonse podcast partner for twenty twenty five. Lines are open. You know,
I'm represented by the good people at UTA. Some of the clutch folks help out a bit. You guys know what to do, all right, Demonse, Let's do a pis recap please.
That was excellent?
Thank you.
Uh. First off, you had a Chicago plus four and a half versus Seattle. That was a winner.
Oh yeah, uh easy winner six to three. What a horrific Thursday night game, but still an easy winner. It's tough when your bet on it. It's very rare that your team is laying or getting less than a touchdown. They score less than a touchdown and to win, but it happened. The Bills minus eight and a half against the Jets maybe the easiest bet of the year. Minnesota plus one against green Bay felt easy and then got a little nerve racking late. We just went over Denver
plus three and a half at Cincinnati. I was obviously all over that one. And then the Rams minus six and a half first Arizona. Bad bet they you know, they weren't really covering the whole game, but that was a seventh straight winning week, forty seven to thirty seven and one overall three and two on the week. Now my five picks this week, demonse.
Uh, First off, you've got Pittsburgh plus two versus Cincinnati.
Yeah, listen, I know it's week eighteen, but it's still Mike Tomlin as a home dog in a divisional game, thank you very much. And that fight. Now, they are going to see earlier on Saturday that the Ravens locked up the division. So you might be like, oh, so they're not going to be that motivated. Here's why they will be motivated. The five The difference between having the five seed and the sixth seed in the AFC is enormous. Assuming the Ravens beat the Browns, the five seed means
you go to Houston. The sixth seed means you go to Baltimore. So you know, Lamar's playoff foibles be damned. You'd rather be going to Houston than going to Baltimore, so that to me is a no doubter. Also, the Steelers three and oh straight up and against the spread when they're on extended rest this year, the public loves the Bengals and again and I Tomlin home divisional dog, will take it. Pittsburgh plus two next.
Of have you got Kansas City plus ten and a half at Denver.
It's just too many points. It's just the the The Chiefs are going to make this a low possession game. They just want to get out. They want this game to go as fast as possible. As my point, so a lot of running the ball. So it's hard to cover big spreads in games that have you know, six or seven possessions per team rather than eight or nine,
So that works in their favor. Carson Wentz, I'm sure is looking at this game as the chance to be next year's Sam Darnold, go to a good spot for ten million bucks, try to reclaim my career, so you know, so he's hyper motivated in this game. I just I Denver right now is going in the wrong direction. And the you know, after Sorry, I just pulled up the Denver Nuggets because I was and I was gonna talk
about Daniel's team for a moment. After the great start, the defense has worn down a bit, allowing thirty four to the Chargers and then obviously last week thirty to the Bengals. I would expect Denver to win this game, but I actually think this is like an ugly seventeen to thirteen type of game. And because of that, the Chiefs plus the ten and a half. And evidently since two thousand and seven, Andy Reid has been a double
digit underdog five times. And while those teams are one and four straight up, they're five and zero against the spread. I wonder how many of those games are games like this, these Week eighteen matchups, because Andy maybe his last year, and but Andy historically is only you know, all his seams have been good. So being a double digit dog makes me think it's a lot of Week eighteen matchups. All right, next one, Demonse.
You've got Miami minus one at the Jets.
Yeah, So listen, First of all, what you've got to do every time you're talking about the Miami Dolphins this time of year, you have to check out the weather report in the city they're playing, So that is a very important say it again, Well, it's gorgeous here right now, But what will it be on Sunday is the question people are gonna have. And it's not let me make sure it hasn't changed. It's not freezing by NFL standards,
it's pretty called by Miami Dolphins standards. High of thirty eight, low of twenty nine on Sunday in the Greater New York area. However, TWOA is not playing. Tyler Huntley's playing, and I thought he actually played decent this past week. And the Jets. This is really less about the Dolphins and more about the Jets just being done with all of it. And so the Dolphins are gonna be playing hoping, thinking they could make the playoffs. The Jets are gonna
be playing hoping this season. From hell ens, I only have to lay one point. It's a tough one and a weird one. And I don't love the fact that as I'm talking through this, I am laying a point with Snoop Huntley. However, Mike McDaniel, you gotta find a way to win the game. The oh yeah, yea once on a time, yeah. In the past, and so I I think Miami's gonna win. I don't think they're gonna make the playoffs because I don't think the Chiefs are gonna beat the Broncos, but Miami won't know that. Of
course they'll be playing simultaneous. I'll do Miami minus one.
Next, you've got the Charges minus four and a half at the Raiders.
Yeah. So I don't like. Once I talked through this and I and I, you know what occurred to me. I should have thought of this before. I was, for some reason, thinking all of the AFC playoff Picture games were gonna be played simultaneously. But the AFC North games are played on Saturday, which oddly means the Chargers will know before kickoff whether or not they're locked into their seat. Despite that, I don't mind. I don't mind laying these
points for the picks portion of this. As far as an actual bet goes, I will just tell the audience right now, I would wait. If you like the Chargers, I would wait to make this bet because after the Steelers, well, let me rephrase it. If you like the Chargers and you think the Steelers are gonna win, you should wait to make this bet because here's the deal. If the Steelers win, this line is gonna go down to like
two and a half. If the Steelers lose and the Chargers then know, oh, if we win, we get the five seed, this line will go up to probably seven and a half. So really, whether or not you want to bet this game right now has to do with what you think is gonna happen in the Pittsburgh game. But the other piece of it is, I just don't think the Raiders and Antonio Pierce are gonna win three straight games. And even if the Chargers don't have peak motivation,
the Chargers aren't there. They're just such a better coached team that it's very hard for me to see them preparing all week and then losing to this Raiders team. And this is a Raiders team they played in Week one and beat by twelve. So it's a weird one that the line is gonna move. If the Steelers win, this line will get a lot smaller. If the Steelers lose, this line will get a lot bigger. All just go ahead and take Chargers minus four and a half for
you know, for the podcast. But because I think the Steelers are gonna win, I'm gonna wait to actually bet this in real life and then the game of the year demonse, you.
Got Minnesota plus two and a half at Detroit.
Yeah. I just think that Detroit's defense is past the point of no return. And I think that Dan Campbell's decision to instead of giving some of his key guys a bye, having his whole team be on short rest was a colossal mistake. And I think having just further evidence for his own players that the team can't defend by letting the Niners score thirty four was not good for their confidence going into this game. And I sadly think for the Lions this magical season could end in
nine days. I think they're gonna lose Sunday Night and then be on the road in Round one against I think the four to five is gonna be Rams Lions, and I will be in so far and I'll be picking the Rams in that game, and so.
It is.
It's now. If they win this game, they can make the Super Bowl, they being Detroit, but I don't think they're going to. I think the Vikings are playing too well, and the Vikings don't have a gaping hole in the defensive side of the ball. The way Detroit does, so I'll actually do that as well, real quick. So my projected AFC playoff field one through seven, some of these are not projections, they're locks, but Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Texans, Steelers, Chargers, Broncos.
The exact one through seven right now is what I think it will remain after this weekend. In order, my projected NFC playoff field will go like this. The Minnesota Vikings are your one seed, Eagles are your two. The Bucks win this weekend, and the Rams lose because they're resting their guys, so they flip flop. Tampa goes to three, the Rams go to four, the Lions slide all the way to five, and then it's then is it? And then the Commanders stay at six and the Packers stay
at seven. That's how I see this thing playing out, and if that happens, I will like the Rams a lot as a home dog in Round one against Detroit. So my five picks for this week are as follows. Pittsburgh getting two at home against Cincinnati, Kent City getting ten and a half at Denver, Miami laying one at the Jets, the Chargers laying four and a half at the Raiders and Minnesota plus two and a half at Detroit. I am a half game behind Danny Parkins in our
picks contest. Had I demons, I gotta tell you one other thing. Had I gone three and oh this weekend, I would have been a half game ahead of him if the Denver game had gone my way. And you know what I was really considering doing. If I had gone, If I was a half game ahead of him, what you would You would probably lose respect for me. But it would have been so funny because Danny has taken this picks thing so seriously, I have two, but he's coming out on a thrown. He has to make his
TV picks before me. So if I had a half game lead, I was just going to make the same three exact picks he did to just guarantee I won the year, to just lock it in, even I didn't like the games, just to absolutely guarantee that he couldn't beat me. And just I mean, it would have been it would have been dirty, very low. It would have been.
I mean, it's I'm not I wouldn't. It's a smart strategy. It makes you guys are watching.
That yeah, oh yeah, that's right. You know what's not a smart strategy demonse, including the Jets and the teas. How'd your teaser go last week?
Oh yeah, it was a two team seven and a half way teaser. Yeah, Jets screwed me over. I mean they were down forty year old one. Uh yeah. Then I had green Bay plus nine at Minnesota that hit. But this is to finish five on. I mean, this is all I could ask for. I don't know. Last year was bad year before that.
Yeah, listen, a five hundred year. It's not profitable, but it's not a debacle like last year. And so what are we doing this week?
Uh? This week is a two team seven and a half point teaser. It's at minus one sixty three. I've got Pittsburgh. I teased them up to plus nine and obviously they're playing Cincinnati, and then I teased up Chicago to plus eighteen at Green Bay. I love it.
I don't hate it. I don't hate it. And by the way, if yours, you get Pittsburgh plus nine and a half, because that line's two now it was one and the half. Oh yeah, yeah, yeah, so you get you get them plus nine and a half. Uh, I don't hate it. I'll give you an ad in the year, and then what's the offer this week?
Uh So the producers are calling this one a one last FU. So it seems like Aaron Rodgers is probably not gonna be playing with the Jets next year. You know, Aaron Rodgers's a little could be a little spiteful, so you might want to win this game to squander their draft pick. So the Jets money line and Jets over twenty three and a half and Jets race to ten is I don't know that plus ten team to score ten?
Okay, yeah, yeah, So first of all, I don't do any race two bets ever in the NFL or the NBA. That sounds ridiculous. But second of all, whatever Rogers wants to do doesn't matter. He's not capable anymore. So no, I won't be taking this offer. I and so I just I am very I have the Dolphins in my picks, so I'm not including the Jets money line in the
offer like that would act in conflict. But I also think that Rogers just doesn't have the ability anymore, and there is a chance he is stuck at four ninety nine touchdo down forever because there is a chance that this Sunday is the last game of his career. It's certainly going to be his last game with the Jets. If we hadn't spent we've spent too much time talking here Rodgers this year, maybe we should have spent more time talking about the fact that this could be the
last game of his career. But I'm sure we'll have plenty of time in the office. He's talking about is he coming back? Is he not coming back? All that nonsense. Answer a few listener questions. Next, What's right? All right? Welcome back in What's right with Nick?
Right?
All right? Demanse? What are some of the listener questions?
Scott asked, If the forty nine ers are going to resign party, shouldn't they just do it now before the market spikes further.
Well, they can't resign him until a few days from now. I think it's like January sixth, when you can start resigning the people who have just finished year three. But your point is valid all the same. Yeah, But I just think that they You're right that if they know they're going to resign him the earlier the chief I don't know they're gonna resign him. Doesn't mean they're gonna move off him, but it means they might make him play next year at his current salary, which, by the way,
I found this out today, I forgot it. Even though his salary is supposed to be a million bucks because he was a pro bowler last year, his final year of his rookie contract salary becomes like a second round RFA tender salary. Regardless, it's five million instead of one million next year for Purty if they don't resign him. So that's nice. So he's got that going for him, all right.
Next, Joshua ass should Baker have made the Pro Bowl.
One n I think that he should have made it over Jaden. I think the NFC Pro Bowler should have been Darnald Goff Baker. Jaden's having an unbelievable year given that he's a rookie, but I don't think Pro Bowls should get a rookie bounce. And so I think Jayden's been excellent, but I think Baker's having the better season. So yeah, that that to me was the biggest non Chiefs related snub.
Next, Hervey asked Nick what is the biggest difference between regular season and postseason and NFL Betty, do you put more value on coaching or a player player playoff experience?
Well, listen, yeah, I mean coaching in the quarterback coaching and quarterback coaching and quarterback coaching and quarterback every time, like that is really you. Simmons used to always say, don't bet an underdog unless you think they can win. Out right, I think that's like in the playoffs. I think that's pretty smart at times. But I yes, I put massive value on the coach in the quarterback and listen, we'll do We will be picking every single playoff game.
The dream of an undefeated postseason stays alive. Thirteen and zero is what it would be for an undefeated postseason. It's of course I've never done it. In the past. It was eleven and zero is what you would have to do. But now there's two extra games. But we'll get more into that this coming week.
All right, Last one, Gabe, if you're up the point five at the half point on Danny and he picks the Jets, can your principles allow you to pick the Jets? Or should you risk losing to avoid batting on Rogers?
Well, I to be clear, I'm not certain if I would have done Danny that dirty by just mirroring his picks, But man, it would have been hilarious. I gotten a huge argument once. I don't play fantasy football because I gambled,
because I'm an adult. But back when I used to play fantasy football, my producer of my radio show, he and I were playing each other in the playoffs and going into Monday night, his team was done and I just had The only person I had left was my kicker, and I was up by like zero point seven, And instead I just benched the kicker for a vacant spot so I couldn't get negative points if he missed kicks.
And he thought that was like a legit argument. He was like, basically it was immoral, like unethical what I was doing. I'm like, listen, man, this as the breaks I can lock in a victory. Here, I'm locking it in. This would have been Yeah, I think it's totally fair strategy. This would have been about one hundred times worse than that if I did this that to Danny. But instead it's just listen, if Danny ties me or beats me this week, he wins. If I beat him by one game,
I win. So he listen all he has to do is go three and zero to guarantee he wins. Now, maybe he could theoretically win by going oh and three if I also do. But the only way he can control it and no pressure Danny, is if he nails all three picks in week eighteen. And so we'll see. I've been coming on quite strong lately, so we'll see. All right, I'll see you guys on TV in a few hours. Great job, demands eight Great job, and my friends at blue dot talk to you guys later. What's right? Hey,
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